Author: train2invest Admins

Russia’s Ukraine conflict, big inflation report will keep the stock market volatile in coming week

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will continue to be a major focus, as wary investors watch fresh inflation data and the rising price of oil in the week ahead.

Stocks in the past week sold off in volatile trading, as oil rose more than 20% and a whole host of other commodities rose on supply worries. Investors sought safety in bonds, driving prices higher and the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.72% Friday. The dollar rallied, pushing the dollar index up 2% on the week.

“We just don’t know what can happen over the weekend. It looks like the Russians are amping themselves up and they’re getting more aggressive,” said Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management head of macro strategies for global fixed income.

“If nothing happens over the weekend, or if there’s some peace talks coming, then the 10-year note yield could go up 10 to 15 basis points. It could have that swing,” said Caron. Yields move opposite price. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)

The Federal Reserve will also be top of mind, as investors focus on its pending interest rate hike on March 16. But Fed officials will not be making public addresses in the quiet period leading up to their meeting.

The economic calendar is relatively light in the coming week, with the exception of Thursday’s report of February’s consumer price index.

According to Dow Jones, economists expect headline inflation to rise to 7.8% year-over-year, from 7.5% in January, the highest since 1982. Headline inflation includes food and energy prices.

“The risk is to the upside. It will be a shocker if we get an 8% handle,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

Investors will also focus on how the market itself is trading. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% to 4,328 in the past week, while the Nasdaq lost 2.8% to 13,313.

“The major averages are all in a downtrend here. They seem to rally and then run out of steam,” said Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke. “Until you get some kind of break of that, you want to be a little cautious. It’s definitely concerning, all this stuff.”

Hickey said that the market is behaving similarly as it did in other conflicts.

“In the short run, there’s a lot of uncertainty,” said Hickey “I think the playbook is similar. You tend to see a lot of sloshing around – big swings up and down — and then eventually things start to stabilize a few months later…The question is where does this one go?”

Boiling oil

Following a week of gains, oil jumped sharply again Friday, with West Texas Intermediate rising above $115 for the first time since 2008. WTI rose 7.4% Friday and was up 26% for the week, to settle at $115.68. Russia’s battle for control of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant early Friday spooked investors.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has stirred up more fear of inflation, and economists are already raising their inflation forecasts, due to rising oil prices. The whole commodities complex has shifted higher, since Russia is such a key producer of wheat, palladium, aluminum and other commodities.

Rising oil prices can be a worry since they can generate one of the biggest hits to inflation and do so quickly.

Russia is unique in that it is a very large commodity exporter and has the ability to impact many markets. It is one of the world’s largest exporters of crude and natural gas, with its primary customer Europe. It is the largest exporter of both palladium and wheat.

The jump in oil has already been hitting U.S. consumers at the pump. Gasoline prices were $3.83 per gallon of unleaded Friday, up 11 cents in just a day and 26 cents in a week, according to AAA.

“The national average could get to $4 a gallon next week,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

In the oil market, Kilduff said there was brisk buying Friday. “There’s still room to grind higher, as we continue to price in the loss of Russian crude oil,” he said.

The U.S. and its allies did not sanction Russian energy, but the sanctions did inhibit buyers, banks and shippers who fear running afoul of sanctions on the Russian financial system.

“It’s pretty clear nobody wanted to be short going into the weekend,” said Kilduff. “There’s still room to grind higher as we continue to price in the loss of Russian crude oil.”

Oil traders are also watching to see if Iran is able to strike a deal that would allow it sell its oil on the market, in exchange for an end to its nuclear programs. It could then bring 1 million barrels back on to the market, but analysts say there will still be a shortfall.

China will raise defense spending by 7.1% in 2022, faster than last year ($230.16 billion)

BEIJING — China’s defense spending this year is set to grow at its fastest pace since 2019, according to the Ministry of Finance plan released Saturday.

Defense spending will rise by 7.1% to 1.45 trillion yuan ($230.16 billion) this year, faster than the 6.8% increase in 2021 and 6.6% climb in 2020, according to official data.

China’s defense spending rose by 7.5% in 2019 to 1.19 trillion yuan.

Total central government expenditures for the general public budget are expected to rise by 14.3% to 13.40 trillion yuan this year, the finance ministry said.

“We will move faster to modernize the military’s logistics and asset management systems, and build a modern weaponry and equipment management system,” Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in a separate annual government work report released Saturday, according to an official English-language version.

Li’s other statements about military development and foreign policy remained in line with those of 2021. He said that “China will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy of peace.”

Li did not mention other major countries in the government work report.

The total U.S. defense budget for 2022 comes in just under $770 billion, up 2% from last year.

China sets GDP target of ‘around 5.5%’ for 2022

BEIJING — China announced a gross domestic product growth target of “around 5.5%” for 2022, as an annual parliamentary meeting gets underway.

Premier Li Keqiang revealed the figure in a speech on Saturday morning local time. It is not unusual for the official GDP target to be approximate.

Other economic targets Li announced, for employment and inflation, were the same as last year’s.

However, he said the deficit-to-GDP ratio would be 2.8% this year, lower than last year’s 3.2%. He expects fiscal revenue to grow in 2022, and that the government can use profits from state-owned enterprises, allowing a spending increase of more than 2 trillion yuan ($316.5 billion) in 2022 over 2021.

Total central government expenditures for the general public budget are expected to rise by 14.3% to 13.40 trillion yuan this year, China’s Ministry of Finance said in a separate report released Saturday about the national budget for the year. That includes a plan for a 7.1% increase in defense spending.

China will target an unemployment rate in cities of “no more than 5.5%” and a consumer price index of “around 3%,” according to Li. He added the country plans to add “over 11 million new urban jobs” — also the same figure as last year.

“A comprehensive analysis of evolving dynamics at home and abroad indicates that this year our country will encounter many more risks and challenges, and we must keep pushing to overcome them,” he said, according to an official English-language version of his remarks. “The harder things get, the more confident we must be, and the more solid steps we must take to deliver outcomes.”

Li’s closing remarks included a statement on how China would “set the stage” for the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress. That meeting, expected in the fall, is set to give President Xi Jinping an unprecedented third term.

Stimulus plans

Economists widely expected the GDP target to be set at about 5% or slightly higher. They want details about stimulus plans for an economy that has slowed significantly.

A target of “around 5.5%” GDP growth comes on the high end of those expectations. In a separate report Saturday, the national economic planning agency said “achieving this goal will require arduous efforts.”

Li said Saturday that to reach this year’s economic targets, China needs to pursue “prudent and effective macro policies,” with “flexible and appropriate” monetary policy. Li said the yuan’s exchange rate “will be kept generally stable at an adaptive, balanced level.”

The yuan has strengthened to near four-year highs against the U.S. dollar in the last few weeks.

China’s economic growth softened in the fourth quarter to a 4% year-on-year increase, despite full-year growth of 8.1%.WATCH NOWVIDEO02:05Russia-Ukraine conflict puts China in a ‘really bad place,’ says economist

The country was the only major economy to grow in 2020, while the rest of the world struggled with the coronavirus pandemic.

But sluggish consumer spending has yet to fully recover from the pandemic, and fallout from Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on tech and real estate have dragged on growth. China’s stringent “zero-Covid” policy, with abrupt lockdowns and travel restrictions, has also weighed on the economy.

In the last two weeks, the heads of government ministries have spoken of plans for more economic support, especially for small businesses and consumers.

On consumption, Premier Li said Saturday the government will “boost personal incomes through multiple channels, improve the income distribution system, and increase people’s spending power.”

Other than support for purchases of new energy vehicles and more energy efficient home appliances in rural areas, Li did not name specific measures.

On social welfare, Li said government subsidies for basic medical insurance for rural and unemployed urban residents will be increased by an average of 30 yuan per person ($4.76), and subsidies for basic public health services will increase by an average of 5 yuan per person.

Foreign investment, Taiwan

Li said generally that China will work to fully implement changes to a foreign investment blacklist. The latest version of the list allows foreign businesses greater ownership in industries such as passenger car manufacturing.

He said China will encourage more foreign investment in higher-end manufacturing, research and development, modern services, and within the central western and northeastern regions of China.

On Taiwan, Li said that Beijing “will advance the peaceful peaceful growth of relations across the Taiwan Strait and the reunification of China. We firmly oppose any separatist activities seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and firmly oppose foreign interference.”

As is often the case in official statements, Li did not mention other countries by name.

The “Two Sessions” is an annual meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body, and the National People’s Congress legislature in Beijing.

While largely symbolic, the meetings draw delegates from around the country to approve and announce national economic policies for the year ahead. Those include targets for GDP growth, employment, inflation, deficit and government spending.

This year, the Two Sessions will last about a week, with proceedings set to wrap up on March 11.

TD Bank Group wrapped the earnings stretch Thursday when it reported a first-quarter profit of $3.7 billion, up from nearly $3.3 billion a year earlier

Canada’s Big Six banks all topped expectations for the first quarter as solid economic growth and volatile markets helped push up bottom lines.

TD Bank Group wrapped the earnings stretch Thursday when it reported a first-quarter profit of $3.7 billion, up from nearly $3.3 billion a year earlier that was boosted by the strength of its Canadian and U.S. retail banking operations.

“Canadian retail had a strong quarter, increased customer activity supported record revenue performance in the personal and commercial bank,” said Kelvin Tran, chief financial officer at TD in an interview.

The higher earnings follow on stronger-than-expected results from RBC, Scotiabank, CIBC, BMO, and National Bank that were broadly boosted in part by high trading revenue as well as personal and commercial loan growth.

The earnings beats come as Canada’s economy grew by 6.7 per cent in the fourth quarter and Statistics Canada estimates January growth at 0.2 per cent, despite Omicron related shutdowns.

Banks have also been boosted by a hot housing market fuelled by low borrowing rates, though that started to change this week with the Bank of Canada raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018.

But banks are also poised to reap higher net interest margins if the central bank continues to raise rates. CIBC says a 100 basis point increase across all rates would boost net interest income by about $450 million, while BMO says it would see about a $540 million increase.

The timeline of those rate increases are less certain as the Bank of Canada said when raising rates that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “major new source of uncertainty.”

The central bank warned that oil and other commodity prices have spiked, which will add to inflation, while negative impacts on confidence and supply chains could weigh on global growth.

On Thursday, bank governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech that the bank has to act to lower inflation, which is running at a three-decade high and is also hotter than the bank expected six months ago.

The uncertainty around the pace of rate increases, inflation, supply chains and geopolitical tension has helped push up trading revenue at Canadian banks. TD benefited somewhat less from this trend than other banks, but the bank rolled out a new mobile trading app in the quarter and did well in other areas, said Tran.

“Our results are broader than just trading. The retail bank did really well. We have strong volume growth on both the loans and deposit side in Canada and customer activities are strong.”

On an adjusted basis, TD says it earned $2.08 per diluted share, up from an adjusted profit of $1.83 per diluted share a year ago. Analysts on average had expected an adjusted profit of $2.04 per share, according to financial markets data firm Refinitiv.

Barclays analyst John Aiken said that while the bank beat expectations, results were arguably not as strong as peers, and not just in capital markets.

“The margin compression in domestic retail and weaker loan growth than some of its peers will likely garner some negative attention,” he said in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman said the bank performed well in expense management, but was weaker in most metrics for its personal and commercial banking in Canada.

“While it is hard to call TD’s performance a bad result, the magnitude of the beat was certainly the most modest we have seen across the Big 6 this earnings season.”

On Monday TD announced it was expanding in the southeastern U.S. with a deal to buy First Horizon Corp. for US$13.4 billion.

The bank is paying for the deal with its significant cash holdings that are well above regulated requirements.

Grauman noted that TD has been trading at a premium thanks to its excess capital, and the bank’s greater exposure to central bank rate expectations, but that both drivers have now slackened.

“In the wake of the First Horizon acquisition and curve flattening both of those drivers are becoming headwinds to some extent.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 3, 2022.

Rogers takeover of Shaw Communications

A House of Commons committee says it does not believe that Rogers Communications Inc.’s $26-billion takeover of Shaw Communications Inc. should proceed, and urges the government to prioritize consumers as it reviews the transaction, for example by forcing Rogers to divest Shaw’s wireless business.

The report from the industry and technology committee, which was tabled on Friday, said that while the committee opposes the takeover, if the deal does go forward, the government must ensure that all of the conditions attached are enforceable.

The government does not have to follow the report’s recommendations, which are non-binding. The committee comprises members of Parliament from the Liberal, Conservative and New Democratic parties and the Bloc Québécois.

“Rogers has linked a number of commitments to the merger that the government has no way to enforce. The committee therefore doubts Rogers’s promises to rural regions,” the report reads.

Rogers has promised to create a $1-billion fund to connect rural, remote and Indigenous communities in Western Canada to high-speed internet as part of the merger.

The Federal Industry Minister said Thursday that he won’t allow Rogers to acquire all of Shaw’s wireless licences, as doing so would be at odds with Ottawa’s desire to encourage competition in the industry. However, Mr. Champagne’s statement left the door open to allowing some of Shaw’s wireless licences to be transferred to Rogers.

A spokesperson for Rogers did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 4 2022

Oil prices rebounded on Friday as fears of Western sanctions disrupted Russian oil exports, outweighing the possibility of more Iranian supplies, while reports of a nuclear plant fire in Ukraine spooked markets.

Global stocks fell and oil prices rose on signs of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict after reports that a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, was on fire after an attack by Russian troops.

Brent crude futures for May rose as high as $114.23 a barrel and were at $112.46, up $2.00, or 1.8% by 7:10 a.m. on Wall Street. The contract fell 2.2% on Thursday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate for April rose 2.09% to $109.90 per barrel after touching a high of $112.84 earlier in the session. The contract fell 2.6% in the previous session.

Oil prices are set to post their strongest weekly gains since the middle of 2020, with WTI up 18% and Brent up 14% after hitting their highest in a decade this week.

Oil is rising on fears that Western sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine conflict will disrupt shipments from Russia, which is the world’s biggest exporter of crude and oil products combined. Trading activity for Russian crude oil slowed as buyers hesitate to make purchases because of the sanctions while there is growing pressure on U.S. President Joe Biden to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil.

“The escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine has not only caused geopolitical risks, but is adding to already elevated inflationary concerns as well as driving increased risk premiums across the space,” RBC Capital analyst Christopher Louney said in a note.

More oil supplies could be added from a coordinated release of 60 million barrels of oil reserves by developed nations. Japan said on Friday it plans to release 7.5 million barrels of oil, although it’s a small fraction of its demand.

Prices swung in a $10 range on Thursday but settled lower for the first time in four sessions as investors focused on the revival of the Iran nuclear deal which is expected to boost Iranian oil exports and ease tight global supplies.

“Price gains linked to actual and perceived disruptions to Russian oil exports should more than offset any fall in prices from potentially more Iranian crude oil supply,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Dhar expects Brent to average $110 a barrel in the second and third quarters of this year. But, “the risk is that prices rise above our forecast in the short term,” he said, adding it was plausible Brent futures could reach $150.

Talks on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal appeared to near a climax with talk of an imminent ministerial meeting as a U.N. report on Thursday showed Iranis most of the way to amassing enough enriched uranium for one bomb if purified further.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/jobs-report-february-2022.html

Job growth accelerated in February for a U.S. economy wrestling with swelling prices, the potential for higher interest rates and intensifying geopolitical problems.

Nonfarm payrolls for the month grew by 678,000 and the unemployment rate was 3.8%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

That compared to estimates of 440,000 for payrolls and 3.9% for the jobless rate.

In a sign that inflation could be cooling, wages barely rose for the month, up just 1 cent an hour or 0.03%, compared to estimates for a 0.5% gain. The year-over-year increase was 5.13%, well below the 5.8% Dow Jones estimate.

For the labor market broadly, the report brought the level of employed Americans closer to pre-pandemic levels, though still short by 1.14 million. Labor shortages remain a major obstacle to fill the 10.9 million jobs that were open at the end of 2021, a historically high gap that had left about 1.7 vacancies per available workers.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Oil rose above $111 a barrel on Friday in a volatile session as fears over disruption to Russian oil exports in the face of Western sanctions offset the prospect of more Iranian supplies in the event of a nuclear deal with Tehran.

Signs of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with reports of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, spooked markets before authorities said the fire in a building identified as a training centre had been extinguished.

Brent crude rose as high as $114.23 a barrel and by 4:20 a.m. ET was up 63 cents, or 0.6%, at $111.09. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 64 cents, or 0.6%, to $108.31 after touching a high of $112.84.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means that fears over supply will remain front and centre,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, though he added that there is “a new sense of urgency from all parties involved” to revive the Iranian nuclear deal.

Crude oil hit its highest in a decade this week and prices are set to post their strongest weekly gains since the middle of 2020, with the U.S. benchmark up more than 18% and Brent 13%.

On Thursday prices swung in a $10 range but settled lower for the first time in four sessions as investors focused on the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, which is expected to boost Iranian oil exports and ease tight supplies.

Oil prices are rising on fears that Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict will disrupt shipments from Russia, the world’s biggest exporter of crude and oil products combined.

Trading activity for Russian crude has slowed as buyers hesitate to make purchases because of sanctions against Russia while U.S. President Joe Biden comes under growing pressure to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil.

More oil supplies are set to be added from a coordinated release of 60 million barrels of oil reserves by developed nations. Japan said on Friday it plans to release 7.5 million barrels of oil – a small fraction of its deman

Oil rose above $111 a barrel on Friday in a volatile session as fears over disruption to Russian oil exports in the face of Western sanctions offset the prospect of more Iranian supplies in the event of a nuclear deal with Tehran.

Signs of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with reports of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, spooked markets before authorities said the fire in a building identified as a training centre had been extinguished.

Brent crude rose as high as $114.23 a barrel and by 4:20 a.m. ET was up 63 cents, or 0.6%, at $111.09. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 64 cents, or 0.6%, to $108.31 after touching a high of $112.84.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means that fears over supply will remain front and centre,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, though he added that there is “a new sense of urgency from all parties involved” to revive the Iranian nuclear deal.

Crude oil hit its highest in a decade this week and prices are set to post their strongest weekly gains since the middle of 2020, with the U.S. benchmark up more than 18% and Brent 13%.

On Thursday prices swung in a $10 range but settled lower for the first time in four sessions as investors focused on the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, which is expected to boost Iranian oil exports and ease tight supplies.

Oil prices are rising on fears that Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict will disrupt shipments from Russia, the world’s biggest exporter of crude and oil products combined.

Trading activity for Russian crude has slowed as buyers hesitate to make purchases because of sanctions against Russia while U.S. President Joe Biden comes under growing pressure to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil.

More oil supplies are set to be added from a coordinated release of 60 million barrels of oil reserves by developed nations. Japan said on Friday it plans to release 7.5 million barrels of oil – a small fraction of its demand.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-chinese-refiners-tap-alternative-payments-to-keep-russian-oil-flowing/

Chinese refiners are paying for Russian crude oil using cash transfers to maintain imports from Russia’s Fast East, as banks shy away from financing the oil because of sanctions, sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Global oil prices have soared to their highest in a decade as banks halted financing Russian oil after the United States and other countries ramped up sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine.

Spot crude premiums and freight rates also spiked, piling on buyers’ costs.

Several European and U.S. refiners have stopped buying Russian oil this week, even though Washington said Russian oil and gas are exempted from sanctions.

But Chinese buyers are looking to maintain purchases of ESPO Blend crude exported from Russia’s Far East Kozmino port using other payment methods as they cannot secure letters of credit from banks, trade sources said.

“For those done deals, payments are being sorted out with buyers doing Telegraphic Transfer as bank financing becomes very difficult,” said a Singapore-based Chinese trading executive.

Telegraphic transfer, equivalent to cash pre-payment, requires buyers to transfer funds to sellers up front, a challenge for some cash-strapped independent refiners with each Aframax tanker-sized cargo now costing more than $85 million, the sources said.

Some sellers are providing open credit, but this raises their risk exposure, they added.

Sources said the cash settlements still need to go through the SWIFT messaging system to Russian banks which are not on the U.S. sanction list, said two trading executives with knowledge of the situation.

ESPO blend is popular among China’s independent refiners because of its short voyage time from Russia, availability on a spot basis, and good fuel yield.

Russia is the world’s No. 2 crude exporter, with exports reaching 7.8 million barrels per day in December, the International Energy Agency said.

Last year China imported 575,000 barrels per day of ESPO shipped by tankers, some 6% of total Chinese crude oil imports, with the majority processed by independent refiners, according to tanker tracker Vortexa Analytics.

State refining major Sinopec is a key buyer and trader of seaborne ESPO.

Sinopec’s trading vehicle Unipec, which rivals Vitol as the world’s top oil trader, typically has large open credit lines with suppliers that allow the major to pay a month after a shipment is loaded.

Unipec has bought as many as eight ESPO cargoes for April loading, traders said.

Sinopec did not immediately comment on how the firm pays for its purchases.

One independent refiner who buys ESPO crude said the company can only use telegraphic transfer (TT) to pay for the oil, and that financing costs are now high because oil prices have surged and there is no longer a credit period for repayment.

“We can only use TT for now,” the buyer said. “Previously with LCs, we had a credit period of 30 days. But now we have to pay up front.”

“Refining margins are poor, too,” the source added.

With oil near $120 a barrel, allowing teapots to pay after oil is delivered magnifies risk exposure for a trading company.

Sellers may well ask refiners to provide cash or part of the cargo as collateral, traders said.

“Whichever way, we believe China’s ESPO influx will continue as teapots don’t have many other options, as prices of competing supplies like West African oil went sky-high,” said a second Singapore-based executive with an independent refiner.

Spot premiums of West African and Brazilian crude for May delivery jumped to $9-$10 a barrel above dated Brent this week in volatile trade, a buyer said.

Adding to refiners’ costs are surging freight rates, which have nearly doubled over the week to $900,000 per day for an Aframax tanker sailing from Russia’s Kozmino port to north China, the highest since May 2020, according to traders and Refinitiv data.

China separately buys 800,000 bpd of Russian oil via pipelines under a government-to-government deal between state energy giant CNPC and Russian oil major Rosneft. The pipeline flows remained unaffected, Chinese oil officials have said.

China has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanctions, calling them ineffective and insisting it will maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with Russia.