Author: Consultant

The Canadian banks (Financials) represent roughly 30% of the TSX. Last week’s sell-off was a “technical breakdown” for several of them, moving them from “Buy” trends into “Neutral/Sell” territory as bond yields spiked.

Here are the specific support levels and “pain points” for the Big Five heading into next week (March 9–13, 2026).

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3 Red Flags to Watch Next Week

1. The $100 Level (CM & BNS): Both CIBC and Scotiabank are dancing around the $100 mark. Psychologically, if they settle decisively below $100 for more than two sessions, retail “stop-loss” orders usually trigger, accelerating the slide.
2. TD’s Relative Weakness: TD is the “canary in the coal mine.” It has the most aggressive sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages. If TD breaks $94.50, it likely drags the entire sector down.
3. Friday’s Jobs Data (March 13): * The Trap: If Canadian jobs come in strong (>25k), the 10-year yield will likely jump toward 3.50%.
   • The Result: This makes bank “funding costs” higher and hurts the valuation of their dividend yields. In this scenario, expect the “2nd Support” levels above to be tested by Friday afternoon.

The “Pain Point” Summary

The “Danger Zone” for the TSX Financials Index is a 2% further drop from here. If the sector aggregate falls another 2%, most of these stocks will hit “Value Support” where institutional buyers (pension funds) typically step in. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.

Here is the commentary on what to watch next week,

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1. The “War Premium” in Energy

• The Situation: WTI Crude spiked to $90.90/bbl on Friday due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Next Week’s Risk: We are in “headline trading” mode. If tensions show any sign of de-escalation, expect a rapid $5–$8 “air pocket” drop in oil. Conversely, if infrastructure damage is confirmed, $95+ is the next target.
• TSX Impact: Energy makes up ~16% of the index. Without the oil spike, the TSX would have likely dropped closer to 5% last week rather than 3.7%. If oil retreats, the TSX loses its only “green” shield.

2. Rate-Sensitive “Bleed” (Financials & REITs)

• The Problem: Higher oil = stickier inflation. This has crushed hopes for an aggressive Bank of Canada (BoC) cutting cycle.
• Watch the Yields: The Canadian 10-year bond yield is hovering around 3.38%. If this climbs toward 3.5% next week, the Financials (the TSX’s largest weight at ~30%) will face continued selling pressure.
• Key Date: Watch the Friday (March 13) Canadian Employment Report. A “too strong” jobs report will solidify a “higher-for-longer” stance for the BoC’s March 18 meeting.

3. The Safe-Haven Pivot (Materials)

• The Opportunity: Materials (~20% of TSX) are currently a split story. Gold is surging on “flight to safety,” while industrial metals (Copper) are struggling with global growth fears.
• The Play: Look for outperformance in gold miners (ABX, AEM) to act as a hedge if the broader index continues to slide.

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Executive Watchlist: March 9–13

Catalyst	Metric to Watch	Impact Threshold
Crude Oil (WTI)	$85.00	A break below this levels energy support; TSX likely tests 32,500.
US Core PCE	Friday Release	Any surprise above 3.1% kills the “soft landing” narrative globally.
CAD Employment	Friday (8:30 AM)	>25k jobs added = hawkish BoC = Banks/REITs underperform.
Gold	$2,200+ (Spot)	Sustained levels here will keep the Materials sector from collapsing.

The Bottom Line

The TSX is technically oversold, but there is no “buy the dip” catalyst yet. Expect a “risk-off” start to the week. The index is looking for a floor; unless oil holds $90, that floor is likely lower than current levels.

Monday March 9

China’s CPI, PPI, foreign reserves, aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

Japan’s real cash earnings and bank lending

Germany’s factory orders and industrial production

(11 a.m. ET) U.S. New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations

Earnings include: Constellation Software Inc., Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co., Oracle Corp.

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Tuesday March 10

China’s trade surplus

Japan’s GDP and machine tool orders

Germany’s trade surplus and CPI

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for February.

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP Employment for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales. The Street expects an annualized rate decline of 1.2 per cent.

Earnings include: Altius Minerals Corp., CES Energy Solutions Corp., Franco-Nevada Corp., Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., Transcontinental Inc.

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Wednesday March 11

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for February. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.2 per cent month-over-month and 2.3 per cent year-over-year

Earnings include: Bird Construction Inc., Descartes Systems Group Inc., Freehold Royalties Ltd., Hammond Power Solutions Inc., Lumine Group Inc., Paramount Resources Ltd., Tourmaline Oil Corp., Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.

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Thursday March 12

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of March 7. Estimate is 215,000, up 2,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade balance for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for January. Consensus is a 4.6-per-cent decline on an annualized rate basis.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for January. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 4.3 er cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q4.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc., Ballard Power Systems Inc., Empire Co. Ltd., Premium Brand Holdings Corp., Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

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Friday March 13

Euro zone’s industrial production.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s employment for February. Consensus is a gain of 10,000 jobs with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to $6.6 per cent and average hourly wages rising 3.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s capacity utilization for Q4.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for January. The Street is expecting month-over-month gains of 0.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for January. Consensus is a rise of 0.4 per cent from December and up 3.1 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. GDP for Q4.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. job openings for January. Estimate is 6.75 million, up 208,000 from the previous month.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March.

Earnings include: Lithium Americas Corp., Neo Performance Materials Inc., Perpetua Resources Corp., Westshore Terminals Investment Corp.

Kinaxis ^® (TSX:KXS), a global leader in end-to-end supply chain orchestration, reported record results for its fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. All amounts are in U.S. dollars. All figures are prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards (IFRS) unless otherwise indicated.

“Our team delivered a record fourth quarter and fiscal 2025. The results demonstrate the growing need for organizations to manage unprecedented levels of volatility in demand and supply with Maestro, our market-leading AI-enabled supply chain planning, decision-making and orchestration platform,” said Razat Gaurav, chief executive officer at Kinaxis . “Our improved focus on large, global organizations that run complex supply chains is paying off, including new wins with leaders in semiconductors, data storage, oil and gas, among others. We also had a record year expanding with our installed base, reflecting enhanced focus and execution in that key go-to-market motion and a much broader set of capabilities in Maestro. Our customers are strategically partnering with Kinaxis to reimagine their supply chain planning, leverage state-of-the-art data and semantic architectures, and rapidly innovate with our composable agentic orchestration capabilities.”

Q4 2025 Highlights

$ USD thousands, except as otherwise indicated	Q4 2025	Q4 2024	Change
Total Revenue(constant currency 2 )	144,235140,786	123,935	16%14%
SaaS(constant currency 2 )	97,15394,974	81,856	19%16%
Subscription term licenses	1,716	1,592	8 %
Professional services	39,951	35,092	14 %
Maintenance and support	5,415	5,395	—%
Gross profit Margin	94,259 65%	75,102 61%	26%
Profit (loss) Per diluted share	19,501 $0.68	(16,316) $(0.58)	— (1)
Adjusted EBITDA 2 Margin	37,575 26%	31,462 25%	19%
Cash flows from operating activities	29,942	24,117	24%

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/569471/kinaxis-inc-reports-record-fourth-quarter-2025-results

 George Weston Ltd. (WNGRF) on Wednesday reported profit of $200.9 million in its fourth quarter.

On a per-share basis, the Toronto-based company said it had profit of 52 cents. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, were 87 cents per share.

The baked goods maker and parent of the conglomerate Loblaw posted revenue of $11.86 billion in the period.

For the year, the company reported profit of $817.3 million, or $2 per share. Revenue was reported as $46.17 billion.

Linamar Corp. reported net earnings of $110.7 million during the fourth quarter, up from a loss of $232.3 million during the same period a year earlier.

The company says its earnings amounted to $1.85 per diluted share, up from a net loss per diluted share of $3.78.

The Guelph, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer says its sales totalled $2.52 billion during the period ended Dec. 31, up from $2.38 billion during the prior year quarter.

Linamar says the vast majority of its products into the U.S. continue to be free from tariffs, due to compliance with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement.

Linda Hasenfratz, Linamar’s executive chair, says distressed acquisitions continue to create opportunities for the company to strengthen its portfolio at reasonable costs.

In December of last year, Linamar closed its roughly $72-million acquisition of an iron casting plant in Germany.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 4, 2026.

• Nonfarm payrolls in February fell by 92,000, compared with the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. It was the third time in five months that the economy lost jobs.
• Health care, the primary growth driver in payrolls, saw a loss of 28,000, due largely to a strike at Kaiser Permanente that sidelined more than 30,000 workers in Hawaii and California.
• Wages rose more than expected. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both 0.1 percentage point above forecast.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html

Here’s a rundown of the key things to watch for when forecasting the TSX for the week of March 2–6, 2026:

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🇺🇸 U.S. Jobs Report (Friday, March 6) The first major event for global markets comes with February’s U.S. Employment Situation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 6. These numbers have the power to jolt bond yields — and that usually spills over to impact the mood in TSX banks, tech, and commodity stocks. TS2

📉 Canada’s Economic Momentum Statscan data showed the economy shrank at a 0.6% annualized pace in Q4 2024, with 2025 growth easing back to 1.7% as firms cut inventories instead of stepping up production. The economy was “hardly thriving” given tariff and trade uncertainty. TS2 This soft backdrop heading into the week will weigh on rate-sensitive TSX sectors.

🔁 Tariff Policy Volatility Rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policy — including a proposed 15% across-the-board levy — are adding to business and investor uncertainty. Capital is rotating from high-multiple technology stocks toward tangible assets such as utilities, pipelines, and infrastructure. BNN Bloomberg

🏦 Bank Stocks & Sector Rotation Bay Street doubled down on its old standbys — banks and resources — earlier in the week, and that classic strategy delivered, with TD Bank and CIBC both beating profit expectations. TS2 Watch whether this momentum in bank earnings continues.

🛢️ Energy & Materials Sensitivity The sectors most exposed to tariffs in the near term are energy and materials. For these sectors, however, commodity prices — not tariffs — are likely to be the primary driver of performance. Edward Jones Keep an eye on crude oil prices in particular, as rising oil feeds directly into inflation concerns.

🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Pressure The Canadian Dollar held well throughout the prior week but after a streak of softer CPI and Retail Sales, has started to see some outflows. MarketPulse A weaker loonie can benefit TSX exporters but also signals broader macro worry.

⚖️ Post-SCOTUS Tariff Landscape For Canada, the more relevant tariffs remain the Section 232 tariffs — including sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber products — which remain intact after the Supreme Court struck down the broader IEEPA-based tariffs. Edward Jones The CUSMA review slated for July 2026 is an important longer-term backdrop to monitor.

📅 Coming Up After the Week There are still two key dates ahead in March: the February labour force survey drops March 13, followed by the Bank of Canada’s policy-rate decision set for March 18. If the jobs numbers show weakness, rate-sensitive names on the TSX could take another hit. TS2

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Bottom line for forecasters: The week is dominated by tariff headline risk, the Friday U.S. jobs report, and ongoing macro softness in Canada. Banks and energy remain the key sectoral bellwethers. Expect continued volatility driven by trade policy news out of Washington rather than domestic fundamentals alone.

Monday March 2

Japan and Euro zone’s manufacturing PMI

Germany’s retail sales

(9 a.m.) Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki speaks in Oslo, Norwway

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February.

Also: Canadian and U.S. auto sales for February.

Earnings include: Capstone Mining Corp.; InterRent REIT; K92 Mining Inc.; MongoDB; Wajax Corp.

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Tuesday March 3

Japan’s jobless rate and capital spending

Euro zone’s CPI

Earnings include: Alibaba ADR, Baytex Energy Corp., CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., Macy’s Inc., Pet Valu Holdings Ltd., Topaz Energy Corp.

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Wednesday March 4

China’s PMI

Japan and Euro zone’s services and composite PMI

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour productivity for Q4. Estimate is a decline of 0.2 per cent from Q3.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for February.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for February.

(10:20 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Toronto.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Athabasca Oil Corp., Broadcom Inc., Capital Power Corp., George Weston Ltd., Ivanhoe Electric Inc., Freehold Royalties Ltd., Kinaxis Inc., Linamar Corp., Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd., Vermilion Energy Inc.

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Thursday March 5

Euro zone’s retail sales

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 28. Estimate is 217,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity and unit labour costs for Q4. The Street expects annualized rate increases of 1.6 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for January. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 er cent from December and down 0.1 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: Aecon Group Inc., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Canfor Corp., Costco Wholesale Corp., Endeavour Mining Corp., Ero Copper Corp., Headwater Exploration Inc., Maple Leaf Foods Inc., Marvell Technologies Inc., Merck ADR, Methanex Corp., Parex Resources Inc., Spin Master Corp.

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Friday March 6

Euro zone’s GDP

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February. Consensus is a rise of 60,000 jobs month-over-month with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3 per cent and average hourly wages rising 0.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for January. The Street expects a decline of 0.3 per cent from December.

(10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for December.

(3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for January.

Earnings include: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., AltaGas Ltd., Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp., Nexus REIT