February Nymex natural gas (NGG26) on Thursday closed up by +0.170 (+3.49%),

Feb nat-gas prices extended this week’s parabolic rally on Thursday, climbing to a 3-year nearest-futures high.  Natural gas prices have surged more than 60% over the last three days on forecasts of Arctic weather invading the US, boosting heating demand and potentially disrupting US gas production as water freezes in pipelines.   According to AccuWeather, a massive Arctic cold front will descend into the US as far south as Texas, bringing below-normal temperatures to more than 150 million people across 24 states.  

Also, the frigid conditions expected in Texas this weekend, where key gas production sites are located, and infrastructure is less hardened to cold weather, increase the risk of temporary outages and reduced nat-gas production.  On Thursday, Texas Governor Abbott issued disaster declarations for more than half the counties in the state ahead of the winter storm.

Nat-gas prices also received a boost on Thursday after weekly EIA nat-gas inventories fell more than expected.  The EIA reported that nat-gas supplies in the week ended January 16 fell -120 bcf, a much larger draw than expectations of -98 bcf.

Projections for lower US nat-gas production are supportive for prices.  The EIA last Tuesday cut its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 107.4 bcf/day from last month’s estimate of 109.11 bcf/day.  US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Thursday was 110.3 bcf/day (+9.0% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 112.6 bcf/day (-15.0% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 19.7 bcf/day (+15.9% w/w), according to BNEF.

As a negative factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended January 10 fell -13.15% y/y to 79,189 GWh (gigawatt hours), although US electricity output in the 52-week period ending January 10 rose +2.5% y/y to 4,294,613 GWh.

Thursday’s weekly EIA report was supportive for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended January 16 fell by -120 bcf, a larger draw than the market consensus of -98 bcf but smaller than the 5-year weekly average draw of -191 bcf.  As of January 16, nat-gas inventories were up +6.0% y/y and were +6.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies.  As of January 20, gas storage in Europe was 48% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 63% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending January 16 fell by -2 to 122 rigs, falling further below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28.  In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
 

Ottawa is encouraging China to invest in Canada’s food processing and manufacturing industries, an area where the country has struggled to secure the capital it needs to stay globally competitive.

Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald said in an interview that he sees “lots of opportunities” under new trade agreements signed with Beijing for Chinese investment in areas such as domestic value-added processing – facilities that transform raw ingredients into marketable products – and in Canadian agricultural research.

“They want our expertise and we have expertise in agriculture,” he said. “I think they have a keen interest.”

Mr. MacDonald made the comments after returning from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade mission to Beijing. The delegation set out last week to recalibrate an increasingly fraught relationship with China. The trip resulted in significant cuts to a number of tariffs on agricultural products, and agreements between the two countries on food safety standards and investment in energy and food production.

Explainer: What to know about the Canada-China trade deal on EVs and canola

Investors and agri-food industry spokespeople welcomed the prospect of increased Chinese capital, but are also warning that Canada must ensure it maintains control of its resources in that sector.

A historically low-priority file for Ottawa, agriculture has long struggled to secure the capital required to transform Canada into the food juggernaut it could be, said Evan Fraser, director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph.

“Canada is likely to become the most important breadbasket in the world over the next few years,” he said, noting the effects of climate change and rising aridity in other more southern agricultural competitors.

“This will either put a target on our back – as some nations pursue empire – or we will form coalitions that situate Canada between China, the EU and the US … if we don’t seize the moment, the moment will seize us.”

Canada’s agricultural industry generated around $149.2-billion – 7 per cent – of the country’s gross domestic product in 2024 and accounted for one in nine jobs, according to Statistics Canada.

However, the sector is still falling short of its potential, according to some metrics.

Opinion: In Carney’s new world order, Canada’s opportunity is as a breadbasket

In 2017, Canada ranked fifth in global agricultural exports. According to a Royal Bank of Canada report from February, 2025, Canada has since dropped to seventh place and, without corrective action, could drop to ninth by 2035. A global model developed by the Boston Consulting Group’s Centre for Canada’s Future and RBC shows Canada’s global market share has relatively declined since 2000 by 12 per cent.

The RBC report said Canada is an “innovation commercialization laggard.” Government spending on agri-food research and development has declined by 9 per cent on average, annually, over the past decade. Investments in value-added operations have grown, climbing from around $1.5-billion in 2000 to $5.3-billion in 2025. Yet more capital is required to keep Canadian products competitive with new agricultural powers such as Brazil, the report said.

Canadian agri-food is “starved of capital,” Mr. Fraser said.

A host of factors are to blame for this, said Alison Sunstrum, chief executive at Conserve X, a Canadian company developing and investing in emerging agri-tech. Ms. Sunstrum is also a general partner of The51 Food and AgTech Fund, which invests in outliers transforming the business of food and agriculture.

Canada has an abundance of crops and low-cost energy, she said, but agri-food businesses struggle to scale because of limitations with transportation infrastructure, regulatory burdens that delay approval times, and opaque standards and labelling when bringing new products to retailers.

Attracting foreign capital will require Ottawa address these challenges, she said. “We need to make sure we’re the most investable environment.”

Should Canada attract Chinese investment, the returns could be substantial. Ms. Sunstrum’s fund is primarily focused on Asian markets. The size of the population in those countries means the opportunities are enormous, she said. For example, India and Southeast Asia are expected to account for 31 per cent of global agriculture and food consumption growth by 2033, according to the OECD 2024 outlook.

Foreign investment from those areas would boost exports. But Canada should nevertheless tread carefully, said Dana McCauley, CEO of the Canadian Food Innovation Network.

“We can use money from any source, depending on the strings,” she said.

Shannon Proudfoot: It’s clear Carney is now dealing with the world ‘as it is’

Before joining CFIN, Ms. McCauley worked in food innovation and research at the University of Guelph. In this role, she says, she was constantly warned about intellectual property threats from China.

But this is not a reason to shun Chinese money, she said. A long-term, stable relationship with foreign investors pays dividends, especially when it comes to agriculture – a key industry in rural Canada. Moving forward, airtight contracts will be key, Ms. McCauley said.

Mr. MacDonald echoed this sentiment in the Wednesday interview. Foreign investment and trade do not equate to dependence, he said. Instead, they are part of the path to Canadian resilience.

“The global landscape continues to evolve in all aspects. We have to continue to evaluate and manage these threats,” he said. “We don’t tolerate foreign interference. We’ll continue to look for trading opportunities with major economies, while always upholding our Canadian values.”

Powered by strong consumer spending, the U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in two years from July through September, the government said Thursday in a slight upgrade of its first estimate.

America’s gross domestic product – the nation’s output of goods and services – rose at a 4.4-per-cent annual pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, up from 3.8 per cent in the April-June quarter and from the 4.3-per-cent growth the department initially estimated. The economy hasn’t grown faster since the third quarter of 2023.

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 per cent of U.S. GDP, grew at a healthy 3.5-per-cent pace. A surge in exports and a drop in imports also contributed to robust third-quarter growth.

The economy has remained resilient despite uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s policies, particularly his double-digit taxes on imports from almost every country on Earth.

Despite the strong growth numbers, many Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the economy and especially the high cost of living.

The gap between how consumers say they feel and the strong spending numbers might reflect what is known as a “K-shaped economy.” In that situation, the income of wealthier Americans is on the rise, due to stock market gains and growing investments, while lower-income households struggle with stagnant pay and high prices.

The job market also looks a lot weaker than the overall economy. Employers have added a lacklustre 28,000 jobs a month since March. In the 2021-2023 hiring boom that followed COVID-19 lockdowns, by contrast, they were creating 400,000 jobs a month. Still, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.4 per cent, suggesting a no-hire, no-fire labour market with companies hesitant to bring on new employees but reluctant to let go of the ones they have.

• Wind chills could fall to -50 degrees Fahrenheit across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, according to the National Weather Service.
• The cold will descend south with snow and ice storms gripping much of the U.S.
• The wind chills pose a life-threatening risk of hypothermia and frostbite to exposed skin, the NWS warned.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/21/nautral-gas-prices-soar-as-winter-storm-arctic-cold-to-blast-us.html

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Energy

Natural gas prices soar as Arctic cold to blast Upper Midwest and descend across U.S.

Published Wed, Jan 21 20268:41 AM ESTUpdated 1 Min Ago

Spencer Kimball@spencekimball

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Key Points

• Wind chills could fall to -50 degrees Fahrenheit across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, according to the National Weather Service.
• The cold will descend south with snow and ice storms gripping much of the U.S.
• The wind chills pose a life-threatening risk of hypothermia and frostbite to exposed skin, the NWS warned.

In this article

• @NG.1+0.857 (+21.93%)

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A person takes a break from clearing a walkway along Bannock Street as a winter storm sweeps over the intermountain West, plunging temperatures into the single digits and bringing along a light snow in its wake Saturday, Jan. 18, 2025, in Denver.

David Zalubowski | AP

Natural gas prices soared more than 20% on Wednesday as an Arctic cold front is forecast to blast across the Upper Midwest and descend south to grip much of the U.S. with frigid temperatures through the weekend.

Heating demand is expected to spike as wind chills could fall to -50 degrees Fahrenheit across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, according to the National Weather Service.

The wind chills pose a life-threatening risk of hypothermia and frostbite to exposed skin, the NWS warned. Power outages could prolong the risk, the federal agency said. Families should protect all pets from the cold, it said.

Heavy snow is forecast for the southern high plains of Colorado and New Mexico on Friday, said Owen Shieh, a meteorologist at the NWS Weather Prediction Center in a public service announcement on social media.

The storm will spread across the southern plains to the Mississippi Valley on Saturday before moving into Southern Appalachia, the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday night into Sunday, Shieh said.

A major ice storm threatens to hit Texas on Friday night and extend through the Deep South and the Carolinas into the weekend, the meteorologist said. This could lead to hazardous travel, downed trees and power lines, he said.

Frigid sub-zero and single digit temperatures will also expand into the Ohio Valley and Northeast by Sunday, according to the NWS.

“Due to the large extent and long duration of the extreme cold accompanying this winter storm, it will take longer for the snow and ice to melt after the storm,” Shieh said. “You need to prepare for the possibliity of extended impacts, potentailly for several days.”

🔍 How KXS Stacks Up Against Each One

Sources: MarketBeat competitor lists, Yahoo Finance comparison data for SHOP/CSU/DSG/KXSYahoo Finance, AlphaSpread valuation comparisons for CSU/TOI, Financhill competitor metrics for KXSFinanchill.

1️⃣ Kinaxis (KXS) vs Descartes (DSG)

Closest apples‑to‑apples comparison.

• Both are supply chain SaaS
• DSG is more logistics + compliance
• KXS is more planning + forecasting
• DSG grows slower but is more stable
• KXS grows faster but is more cyclical

If you like KXS, DSG is the “safer cousin.”

2️⃣ KXS vs Constellation Software (CSU)

CSU is a different beast entirely.

• CSU buys hundreds of small software companies
• Extremely diversified
• Very stable cash flow
• Lower volatility than KXS
• Long‑term compounding machine

CSU is the “sleep well at night” Canadian tech stock.

3️⃣ KXS vs Topicus (TOI)

TOI is CSU’s European spin‑off.

• Faster growth than CSU
• More early‑stage acquisitions
• Higher risk, higher reward
• More volatility
• Still very high‑quality

TOI is like CSU’s younger, more aggressive sibling.

4️⃣ KXS vs Shopify (SHOP)

Completely different risk profile.

• SHOP is macro‑sensitive
• Huge global TAM
• High volatility
• Can swing 30–50% in a year
• Strong long‑term story but not for the faint of heart

KXS is stable enterprise SaaS; SHOP is a rocket ship.

🧠 Where KXS Fits in Your Portfolio

Given your situation — three years from retirement, strong equity exposure, and a desire to reduce volatility — here’s the general pattern:

• KXS → mid‑risk, steady SaaS
• DSG → low‑risk, slow‑and‑steady
• CSU → low‑medium risk, compounding
• TOI → medium‑high risk, growth
• SHOP → high risk, high reward

KXS is not the riskiest name in the group. It’s actually one of the more stable Canadian SaaS companies.

North American equity markets have provided investors with healthy gains over the past few years. But 2026 may prove to be a challenging year, if history repeats itself.

The second year of a U.S. presidential election cycle is often weak for equity markets. For instance, in 2022, the S&P 500 plunged 19 per cent. And during President Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 declined 6 per cent in 2018.

Yet Javed Mirza, managing director of quantitative/technical strategy at Raymond James, believes markets will rise to record highs.

He expects the S&P 500 may deliver a 16 per cent return in 2026, closing out the year at 7,940. Based on his analysis, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has its next technical target pegged at roughly 35,000, an increase of nearly 2,000 points.

On Jan. 14, I spoke with Mr. Mirza and discussed his bullish stock market predictions along with his stock ideas.

For 2026, 16 Canadian and U.S. stocks made his best ideas list. They are Aflac (AFL-N +0.22%increase), Avery Dennison (AVY-N -1.47%decrease), Canadian National Railway (CNR-T -0.49%decrease), Diamondback Energy (FANG-Q +0.28%increase), FedEx (FDX-N -0.32%decrease), First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA-Q -0.75%decrease), Global Life (GL-N +0.09%increase), Granite REIT (GRT-UN-T -0.32%decrease), Interfor (IFP-T -1.75%decrease), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-T -0.68%decrease), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY-Q -0.23%decrease), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT-Q -0.56%decrease), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG-N -1.88%decrease), Prologis (PLD-N -0.62%decrease), Stella-Jones (SJ-T -1.27%decrease) and Targa Resources (TRGP-N +0.37%increase).

Here are highlights from our conversation.

You expect the S&P 500 to deliver another year of double digit returns with your year-end target pegged at 7,940. However, you anticipate markets will see “choppy consolidation”, or sideways action, over the next 10 months with momentum accelerating in November and December.

So, this year is actually the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle. Normally, you see a return of 3 per cent. Markets are choppy until U.S. midterm elections are held in November.

But once all that uncertainty is gone, then the market accelerates.

More stories below advertisementwe’re telling clients is to use weakness throughout the course of this year to accumulate positions because that should set up another leg higher into 2027. We’re very constructive on equity markets into 2027.

Does the same narrative hold true for the TSX Composite Index?

The S&P 500 outperformed in the bull market from 1980 to 2000 and then most recently from 2010 to now – and that’s reflecting mega cap growth, the ‘Magnificent 7’.

But the TSX closed above a key moving average at the end of December, and that is telling us that potentially we’re seeing a secular or long-term shift underway.

The key takeaway is that there’s a potential longer-term secular trend change underway that favours the TSX over the S&P 500. Ultimately, this is telling us that we’re seeing a potential shift to resources and away from paper assets.

You said the TSX broke above a very important moving average that signaled a potential shift. What was that important moving average?

It’s the four-year moving average, and it’s a great barometer or indicator of longer-term or secular trends.

When people think of technical analysis, they think of short term and day trading. But our work is the opposite. We have very long-term charts, very long-term views. Technicals are really good at highlighting longer-term inflection points.

Let’s talk about your best ideas for 2026. You have five Canadian stock picks and 10 U.S. stock ideas. Can we run through your Canadian ideas first so Ivanhoe Mines, CN Rail, Granite REIT, Stella-Jones and Interfor?

All the ideas that we’re highlighting are part of our bigger thesis that we’re going to see a broadening of the rally this year. And we’re going to see money flow into other areas of the market – it’s not just going to be the ‘Magnificent 7’ that are going to be leaders.

For Ivanhoe, we’re seeing technicals improve, price momentum is strengthening. We’re seeing institutional investors stepping in and adding exposure. The technical profile suggests that we are going to retest the highs that we saw in 2024, around $20, and then the next upside target is around $25.

CNR put in a floor near major support around $128. We’re seeing relative strength improve, price momentum turn-up, and we’re seeing institutions step in and start adding exposure.

Given where we are in terms of the economy and where we think we’re headed more importantly, this should be a tailwind for industrials, basic materials and information technology. CNR should benefit from a strengthening of the economy and a broadening of the rally.

The chart for Granite REIT looks quite constructive. It’s been in a three-year sideways consolidation. Price momentum, relative strength and volume are all telling us that institutions are buying this REIT. It looks like it wants to breakout above the highs around $90 and then the next upside target is near $95. It really fits in with our pro-economy strengthening theme.

Stella-Jones, which is more of an infrastructure play, is a long-term compounder with improving technicals.

A contrarian call is Interfor, which our fundamental analyst likes as well. If we’re correct that we’re shifting into phase two of the market cycle model that should be very positive for cyclical commodities such as copper and lumber. And what we’re seeing right now in futures is that commercial hedgers, also known as the ‘smart money’, are positioned long lumber. Sentiment is very bearish on lumber. We think the reward-risk ratio is quite compelling here. Interfor is showing early signs of turning around.

When you said that we’re shifting into phase two of the market cycle model, what do you mean by that?

So, that’s the market cycle model. Our long-term technical and cycle work suggests that markets move in phases as we progress through a four-year cycle. A four-year cycle is a three to five-year cyclical bull market. Phase one is typically when the market is bottoming and it’s starting to turn up in advance of a weak economy because the stock market always looks six to nine months ahead and it discounts what’s happening right now. So, phase one is when you see early signs of green shoots. Phase two is when the market has already put in a low and is accelerating, which is what we’re seeing right now. This is when the economy starts to show signs of strengthening. Phase three is typically the market peak, when the market is running on all cylinders, so there’s a lot of demand, and as a result, demand for energy goes up as goods need to be shipped around the country and as people travel. So in phase three, input costs are quite high and that’s when inflation starts to come into the system. That is when you start getting concerned about what we call a four-year cycle reset, that’s the contraction phase of the business cycle. Phases four and five, that’s when the market starts to roll over and come under pressure. In our view, the two most recent instances of these occurred from February to April of 2025 with the tariff tantrum, and the bigger correction occurred in January to October of 2022.

The stock market during a four-year cycle reset typically draws down 15 to 20 per cent in terms of magnitude and typically these corrective phases last around 34 weeks. I would note that the tariff tantrum was one of the shortest corrections we’ve ever seen. We did see damage of over 20 per cent, but we did not see the duration, which typically lasts around 34 weeks, and it was call it, eight to 10 weeks.

So, the stock market put in a low in April 2025, representing the four-year cycle reset?

That’s a great question because that’s the timing of when we think this new four-year cycle started and the stock market should have upside into the second half of 2027, first half of 2028.

Of the 10 U.S. stocks on your 2026 best ideas list, can you highlight three with the best technical charts or ones that look the most attractive to you?

FedEx.

And then First Citizens BancShares.

And then, if we’re correct on our broader call in terms of the shift into phase two of the market cycle model, which should be good for the broader economy, then Avery Dennison.

Can you give readers your analysis on the charts for these three stocks?

All three of these names are seeing price momentum improve. We’re seeing relative strength accelerate. We’re seeing institutional investors stepping in and buying, and all of these are trading above key technical levels at their 48 and 200-month moving averages and what that is telling us is that the long-term and secular trends are up. So, all of these have positive technical characteristics and a tailwind of where we are in the market cycle model should really benefit these names.

What are your technical targets for each of them?

For Avery, it’s $220. For First Citizens BancShares, it looks like it wants to test first resistance around $2,300. And then FedEx, the next upside technical target is around $350.

Do you favour any particular styles like growth versus value?

Given where we are in the market cycle model, I think we’re going to see a rotation out of some of the leadership in technology and a broadening into some value plays, so I definitely think that should be a tailwind for the more resource-heavy TSX Index. And then I think we’ll see a catch up in the U.S., especially in some of the dividend plays.

Speaking of a potential shift away from some of the technology leaders, do any of the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks still look positive to you?

I think Amazon and Alphabet have retained their positive technical profiles. However, we are definitely seeing signs that some of the other ones are starting to weaken.

Earlier you were talking about commodities and how there’s a rotation taking place to resources and away from paper assets. Which commodities do you like?

Gold, copper and lumber.

Oh, not silver as well?

The problem with silver right now is that it has gone parabolic. I’m not saying it can’t continue to go higher, but we have a discipline and a process.

The next upside target on gold is near $5,000. Copper is $6 followed by $6.50. The next upside on lumber is $720.

What is the key message from your 2026 outlook report?

The key message is that 2026 should see a broadening of the rally. It should not just be led and focused on the U.S. ‘Mag 7’, and this should be broadly very positive for the TSX Composite Index. And if the trends that we are seeing that are trying to take hold remain in place, then the next call in five to 10 years should be very positive for Canadian equities.

Consumer prices in Canada rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.4 per cent in December, largely due to the base-year effect from last year’s sales tax break, but ‍closely-watched core ​measures of inflation cooled for the third consecutive month, data showed on Monday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would hold at the 2.2-per-cent rate recorded in November.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index declined by 0.2 per cent, Statistics Canada ⁠data showed. The monthly decline was less than market expectations of a 0.3-per-cent decrease.

The Canadian central bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, continued to ease and were the lowest since December, 2024. CPI-median – or the value at ‌the middle of the set ‍of price changes in a month – cooled to 2.5 per cent from 2.8 per cent ‍in November, while CPI-trim – which excludes the ‌most extreme price changes – decreased to 2.7 per cent from 2.9 per cent.

The deceleration ⁠in core prices should keep the Bank of Canada at ease after the Bank ​held its key policy rate steady at 2.25 per cent in December, and said this was about the right level to keep inflation close to its 2-per-cent target. Money markets expect rates to stay on hold in 2026.

The rise in headline inflation ​in December was driven by a temporary sales tax break on certain food and children’s items authorized by the previous Liberal government headed by Justin Trudeau in the comparative December, 2024, period.

Restaurant prices, one of the segments affected by the tax holiday, were the largest contributor to the acceleration in the annual inflation rate ⁠in December, 2025.

Opinion: What cost-of-living crisis? The data tell a different story

Moderating the acceleration in the annual rate was a year-over-year ⁠decline in prices for gasoline, which fell 13.8 per cent in December after a 7.8-per-cent decline in ‌November.

Grocery prices, while unchanged month-over-month, rose 5 per cent annually.

Excluding volatile food and energy, inflation rose 2.5 per cent in the month.

Services price inflation rate in December accelerated to 3.3 per cent from 2.8 per cent in November, while goods prices rose by 1.2 per cent after 1.5 per cent in the previous month.

On an annual average ‌basis, prices increased 2.1 per cent last year, following a 2.4 per cent rise in 2024.

📅 Monday, January 19, 2026

🇨🇳 China – Q4 GDP & Activity Data

• China Quarterly GDP (YoY) – Expected ~4.4–4.5% — growth is forecast to slow vs. prior quarter, reflecting weak domestic demand and property sector drag.
• Industrial Production (Dec) – (YoY) consensus not officially published — market watchers expect muted expansion or slight deceleration tied to domestic weak demand.
• Retail Sales (Dec) – (YoY) forecast weaker growth — a key gauge of consumer activity in China.
• Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) – (YTD YoY) data released — often shows investment ebb reflecting slower policy transmission.
  Why it matters for TSX: China is the world’s largest commodity consumer, so weaker activity tends to weigh on metals and energy prices, which can spill over to TSX materials & energy stocks.

🇨🇦 Canada – CPI & BoC Surveys

• Canada Consumer Price Index (Dec)
  • Headline & Core inflation — forecast: Moderation expected but still above 2% (BoC target range). Final consensus isn’t yet published, but the Bank of Canada is widely expected to stay on hold with rates, citing softer consumer demand.
• Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey – qualitative confidence indicator; no numerical consensus but will influence outlook for future policy.

📈 Global Risk Noise: The U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which typically reduces liquidity and can exaggerate moves in commodities and FX.

---

📅 Tuesday, January 20, 2026

🇨🇳 China – PBoC Loan Prime Rates (LPR)

• One-year and five-year LPR expected stable — markets aren’t expecting changes in benchmark lending rates even as the economy slows.

🇬🇧 U.K. – Employment Report (Nov)

• Unemployment Rate – Expected ~5.0%
• Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3-Mo/Yr) – Expected softer growth ~4.4%
  These figures impact global sentiment and FX but are less directly impactful on TSX.

---

📅 Wednesday, January 21, 2026

🇬🇧 U.K. CPI (Dec)

• Inflation (MoM & YoY) — expected modest deceleration, influences BoE stance.

---

📅 Thursday, January 22, 2026

🇺🇸 United States – Key Macro Releases

• GDP Final (Q3) – confirms earlier estimates; no major revisions expected.
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Nov)
  • Core PCE YoY — consensus ~2.6–2.8%
  • Headline PCE YoY — consensus ~2.7%
    These are the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges — markets react strongly if figures deviate notably from expectations.
• Personal Spending & Income (Nov) — spending ahead of holidays is monitored for consumer momentum.

Why PCE matters: A stronger-than-expected PCE is interpreted as stickier inflation, potentially delaying rate cuts — this can tighten financial conditions and pressure equity valuations globally.

---

📅 Friday, January 23, 2026

🇨🇦 Canada – Retail Sales (Nov)

• Retail Sales (MoM) — consensus moderately positive but slowing year-over-year — a key Canadian domestic demand gauge.

🇺🇸 United States – Flash PMIs (Jan)

• S&P Global PMI Flash (Manufacturing & Services) — early big-picture data on business activity.

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🧠 Forecast Summaries / Market Expectations

Release	Consensus / Expected	Market Implication
China Q4 GDP YoY	~4.4–4.5%	Slower growth → weaker commodity demand; may pressure TSX materials & energy.
Canada CPI (Dec)	Moderation but above 2%	BoC likely on hold; soft inflation supports equities.
U.S. Core PCE (Nov)	~2.6–2.8%	If above forecast, delays rate cuts → negative risk sentiment.
Canada Retail Sales (Nov)	Slight moderation	Gauge of domestic demand; better data supports consumer stocks.
U.S. Flash PMIs (Jan)	Mixed but modest growth	A key early growth snapshot into early 2026.

---

🔎 Market Interpretation — TSX Focus

📉 Negative Risks

• A China GDP miss vs. forecast → lower metals/oil demand forecasts → negative for TSX materials & energy.
• Stronger U.S. PCE inflation than expected → tighter Fed policy expectations → risk off moves hurting equities.

📈 Positive Drivers

• Moderating Canadian inflation + soft retail sales → keeps BoC on hold, boosting yield-sensitive equities.
• Robust U.S. consumption/spending → supports risk assets broadly, potentially lifting TSX cyclicals.

Monday January 19

U.S. markets closed (Martin Luther King Jr. Day)

China GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

Japan core machine orders and industrial production

Euro zone CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for December. The Street is projecting a decline of 0.4 per cent from November but a gain of 2.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for November. Estimate is a year-over-year drop of 9.5 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations for Q4 are released.

Earnings include: Fastenal Co.

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Tuesday January 20

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP employment for December of 2027.

(10:30 a.m. ET) Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at Davos.

Also: Possible U.S. Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs

Earnings include: DR Horton Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, Interactive Brokers Group Inc., Netflix Inc., U.S. Bancorp, 3M Co.

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Wednesday January 21

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at Davos.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for November.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for December. Estimate is a month-over-month decline of 1.0 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for October. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for December.

Earnings include: Charles Schwab Corp., Johnson & Johnson, Kinder Morgan Inc., Prologis Inc., TE Connectivity Ltd., Travelers Companies

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Thursday January 22

Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (through Friday)

Japan trade balance

Euro zone consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price indexes. Analysts expect a decline of 0.1 per cent month-over-month and 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Jan. 17. Estimate is 205,000, up 7,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP for Q3. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 4.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. pre-tax corporate profits for Q3. The Street expects a year-over-year gain of 9.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for November. The consensus projections are month-over-month gains of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for November. The Street is forecasting a month-over-month gain of 0.2 per cent and year-over-year rise of 2.7 per cent.

Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories, Alcoa Corp., Capital One Financial Corp., CSX Corp., GE Aerospace, Intel Corp., Intuitive Surgical Inc., Novagold Resources Inc. Procter & Gamble Co., Southwest Airlines Co., Visa Inc.

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Friday January 23

Japan CPI and PMI

Euro zone PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for November. The Street is projecting a gain of 1.2 per cent from October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales for December.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for January.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Earnings include: NextEra Energy Inc.