China industrial profits and current account surplus
(10:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for September.
Tuesday September 29
Euro zone economic and consumer confidence
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for July. The Street expects a flat reading month-over-month.
(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city) for July. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 per cent from June and up 2.2 per cent year-over-year.
(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for July. Estimate is a month-over-month rise of 0.1 per cent and year-over-year gain of 2.5 per cent.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August.
(1:20 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle speaks at a fireside chat at the Bloomberg Canadian
Finance Conference in New York.
Earnings include: Carnival Corp.
Wednesday September 30
Canada’s National Day for Truth and Reconciliation (stock markets open, bond markets closed)
China PMI
Japan retail sales and industrial production
Germany unemployment, retail sales and CPI
(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP national employment for September.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for August. The Street is projecting month-over-month gains of 0.9 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index (and revisions) for August. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent from July and up 3.2 per cent year-over-year.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for August.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for August.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and price index for Q2. The Street expects annualized rate rises of 1.5 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. pre-tax corporate profits for Q2.
(9:45 a.m. EYT) U.S. Chicago PMI for September.
Earnings include: Jabil Circuit Inc.; Micron Technology Inc.
Thursday October 1
Japan machine tool orders and manufacturing PMI
Euro zone jobless rate and manufacturing PMI
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 26. Estimate is 200,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Revelio Public Labour Statistics for September.
(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P global manufacturing PMI for September.
(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for September.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for September.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for August. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.1 per cent.
(3:05 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Victoria.
Earnings include: Accenture PLC; McCormick & Co. Inc.; Nike Inc.
Friday October 2
Japan CPI and jobless rate
Euro zone CPI
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September. The Street expects a gain of 100,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 4.1 per cent and average hourly wages up 0.3 per cent.
The chart shows gold futures up about 4.3% over three months, despite a recent pullback.
Gold’s main supports have been geopolitical risk, safe-haven demand and longer-term institutional/central-bank demand.
More recently, higher U.S. interest rates, rising Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar have restrained gold. Reuters
All four Canadian-listed precious-metals names shown significantly outperformed gold over the period.
Performance shown on the chart: WPM +25.77%, AEM +23.32%, FNV +19.44%, ABX +14.74%.
3-Month Performance
Asset
Approx. 3-Month Change
Relative to Gold
WPM.TO
+25.77%
Strong outperformer
AEM.TO
+23.32%
Strong outperformer
FNV.TO
+19.44%
Outperformer
ABX.TO
+14.74%
Outperformer
Gold futures
+4.33%
Benchmark
U.S. Dollar Index
−0.38%
Slightly lower over period
Why Gold Rose
The biggest upward move occurred during August, when gold accelerated sharply.
1. Geopolitical uncertainty
Middle East tensions, including conflict involving Iran and risks around the Strait of Hormuz, supported demand for gold as a defensive asset. Gold reached a three-month high in late August amid continued Middle East conflict and political uncertainty.
2. Safe-haven demand
Gold typically benefits when investors become more concerned about geopolitical, financial or economic risk. That was an important driver of the August advance.
3. Longer-term investment demand
Institutional flows, central-bank buying and demand for alternatives to traditional financial assets have provided structural support to gold during 2026. Reuters
Why Gold Has Recently Pulled Back
The picture changed in September.
The Federal Reserve raised rates and markets began pricing further tightening. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of owning gold because gold produces no interest income.
U.S. Treasury yields also rose sharply, while the dollar strengthened. Both tend to pressure gold. On September 25, gold rebounded modestly as the dollar eased, but still finished the week roughly 2% lower because of higher yields and additional Fed rate-hike expectations.
Gold stocks often move more than gold itself because changes in the gold price can have a leveraged effect on miners’ cash flows.
WPM.TO — Wheaton Precious Metals
3-month gain: +25.77%
WPM is the strongest performer shown.
Wheaton is primarily a precious-metals streaming company, rather than a conventional miner. It finances mines in exchange for the right to buy a portion of future metal production at predetermined prices.
That structure gives it substantial exposure to rising gold prices while generally reducing direct exposure to mine-level operating costs.
Chart interpretation: WPM surged more than 40% at its August peak, before consolidating to approximately +25.8%.
AEM.TO — Agnico Eagle
3-month gain: +23.32%
Agnico Eagle closely tracked the gold rally but amplified it substantially.
A miner’s revenue rises when gold prices increase while many operating costs do not rise equally fast. This creates operating leverage.
Simple example:
If mining cost = US$2,000/oz:
Gold at US$4,000 → margin = US$2,000
Gold at US$4,400 → gold rises 10%
Margin increases from US$2,000 to US$2,400 = 20%
That helps explain why miners can rise much faster than the underlying metal.
AEM reached nearly +40% at its August peak before pulling back.
FNV.TO — Franco-Nevada
3-month gain: +19.44%
Franco-Nevada is also primarily a royalty and streaming company.
Its model provides exposure to commodity prices without directly operating most mines.
The chart shows relatively strong but more controlled performance compared with WPM and AEM.
FNV climbed to approximately +23–24% during August and finished near +19.4%.
ABX.TO — Barrick
3-month gain: +14.74%
Barrick also benefited from higher gold prices, but its share-price appreciation was smaller than the other three companies shown.
The chart indicates ABX peaked around +27% in August before giving back a meaningful portion of the gain.
That illustrates an important point: gold-price exposure alone does not determine miner performance. Production, costs, capital spending, reserve quality, country exposure and company-specific execution also matter.
Why Gold Stocks Rose Much More Than Gold
The chart demonstrates the operating leverage clearly:
Approximate percentage change shown on the supplied chart through September 25, 2026.
0%7%14%21%28%GoldABXFNVAEMWPM
Gold rose only about 4.3%, but the stocks increased 15–26%.
The main reasons are:
operating leverage to the gold price;
expanding expected mining margins;
stronger expected cash flows;
investor rotation into gold equities;
royalty/streaming companies benefiting from higher metal prices without equivalent increases in operating costs.
Key Takeaway
The three-month trend remains positive for precious metals, but momentum has moderated since the August highs.
The main factor to watch now is U.S. monetary policy. Continued rate increases and rising Treasury yields would work against gold, while renewed geopolitical deterioration or falling real yields would provide renewed support.
The TSX Consumer Discretionary Index ($TTCD) is showing a short-term rebound, but the 3-month picture is still mixed.
$TTCD: about -7.4% over 3 months, despite a strong +2.1% daily gain on Sept. 25.
ATZ.TO: weakest performer at roughly -24.8%. The large decline has been the main drag among the names shown.
CTC.A.TO: about -3.7%, relatively resilient versus the sector.
DOL.TO: about -4.4%, modest decline after earlier strength.
LNR.TO: about -3.2%, holding up comparatively well.
MG.TO: roughly -0.7%, strongest relative performer in the group shown.
QSR.TO: about -2.5%, also relatively defensive.
Main Reasons
The sector weakness likely reflects:
Consumer spending concerns — discretionary businesses are more sensitive to slowing household demand.
Higher borrowing costs / rate uncertainty — pressures auto, retail and other rate-sensitive spending.
Tariff and trade uncertainty — particularly relevant for auto-related names such as Magna and Linamar.
Company-specific weakness — especially Aritzia, which has significantly underperformed the rest of the group.
Recent rebound — the upward move at the far right suggests some buying after the sector became heavily sold down.
Bottom line: the chart shows an early rebound, not yet a confirmed 3-month uptrend. Most names remain below their late-June levels, with ATZ the clear laggard.
Bond yields are interest rates — the market rate for that maturity. Policy rates (Fed/BoC overnight) are the short end; bond yields are the rest of the curve. (*) See below
How they connect
Policy rate ↑ → short yields rise first; longer yields follow if markets expect the hike to stick or inflation to stay hot.
Bond yields ↑ first (oil shock, strong data, deficit fears) → markets price more future hikes. That forces the Fed/BoC to stay tight or hike, even if they wanted a pause.
Last week: US 10y >5% (highest since 2007) + Canada 10y ~4.0% = market saying “another hike is coming.” That is what hit the TSX.
What rising yields actually do
Channel
Effect
Mortgages / loans
New fixed rates reprice off the 5y/10y. Existing floating rates lag until reset.
Banks
Funding cost ↑; loan demand ↓; bond books marked down. High valuations make this worse (why CM/RY/TD sold off Sep 23).
Corporates
Debt rollover more expensive → capex and buybacks slow.
Equities
Higher discount rate on future cash flows. Long-duration names (tech, growth, utilities) get hit first.
CAD / inflation
Higher CA yields support CAD if purely domestic; last week CAD slipped because US yields rose more and oil/geopolitics dominated.
Last week’s loop (the one on your chart) Oil ↑ → inflation scare → US 10y to 5%+ → Canada 10y to ~4% → banks + miners sold → TSX −584 pts. Fri bounce = oil eased on Hormuz-deal talk → yields pulled back a bit → banks bounced.
Rule of thumb: a 25–50 bp jump in the 10y, if it holds, is roughly one extra hike priced in. That is a tightening of financial conditions even before the central bank moves.
(*) Two different rates, one curve.
1. Policy rate (short end) Overnight rate set by the Fed or BoC.
Fed funds / BoC target: the rate banks charge each other overnight.
Directly controlled. Changed at meetings (hike, hold, cut).
Anchors the left side of the curve: overnight → 1-month → 3-month bills.
2. Bond yields (the rest of the curve) The interest rate the market demands to lend to the government for 2, 5, 10, 30 years.
Not set by the central bank. Set by buyers and sellers of bonds.
If you buy a 10-year Canada bond at a price that implies 4%, that 4% is the 10-year interest rate.
Right = market’s forecast of future policy + inflation + term premium (extra pay for locking money up longer).
Why they move together — but not 1-for-1
Hike expected → 2y yield jumps first (it is almost a bet on the next few meetings).
Inflation/oil/deficit scare → 10y and 30y jump even if the overnight rate has not moved yet. That is higher long-term interest rates.
Last week: Fed/BoC had not hiked that day. The 10y did. So market rates rose before the official rate did.
Simple version Policy rate = what the central bank charges tonight. Bond yield = what the market charges to lend for years. Both are interest rates. The curve is just those rates lined up by maturity.
Big picture: The TSX rose roughly 5,000 points from the ~32,000 area to approach 37,000 over the period shown.
Current level: At 35,800.89, the index is about 1,200 points below the 37,000 resistance area.
Recent range: Since the August peak, the TSX has largely traded in a ~35,500–37,000 range, roughly 1,500 points.
37,000 = resistance: The repeated failure around 37,000 suggests sellers have emerged near that level.
35,500 = support: The recent lows around 35,500 are an important near-term level. A sustained break below it would indicate the range is weakening.
MACD: The MACD has turned negative, with the MACD line below the signal line and a negative histogram. This indicates weakening momentum in the near term.
However: The index remains well above its earlier March/April levels, so the chart shows short-term consolidation/weakening momentum within a larger six-month uptrend, rather than a confirmed major reversal.
In one sentence:The TSX has had a strong longer-term run, but it is currently consolidating between roughly 35,500 support and 37,000 resistance, with the negative MACD suggesting near-term momentum has weakened.
The key message from Europe this week was “relief from falling oil, but pressure from rising bond yields.” European equities snapped a three-week losing streak: the STOXX Europe 600 gained about 0.5%, its best weekly performance since early August. MMarketScreener+1
Friday’s rebound was driven largely by a pullback in crude oil, which eased fears that the Middle East conflict would produce another inflation shock. But the rise in European and global bond yields limited the upside. MMarketScreener+1
Index
Sept. 25 close
Weekly move
Main driver
STOXX 600
~638.65
+0.5%
Oil relief, but yields remain a problem
DAX
25,408.64
+0.4%
Oil relief + industrial/tech resilience
FTSE 100
10,695.25
roughly flat/slightly positive
Energy & defensive exposure
CAC 40
8,077.80
roughly flat
Luxury/consumer weakness offset broader relief
The daily Friday closes were DAX +0.56%, FTSE 100 +0.14% and CAC 40 −0.04%. MMarketScreener Canada+1
🇪🇺 STOXX 600 — modest recovery
The STOXX 600 rose 0.5% for the week, ending a three-week losing streak. Friday’s 0.4% gain was particularly important because the index had fallen sharply on Thursday as oil and bond yields rose. MMarketScreener
The week’s pattern was essentially:
Oil ↑ + yields ↑ → European stocks ↓
then
Oil ↓ → European stocks ↑
That tells you what investors were most concerned about.
The fall in crude relieved pressure on energy-intensive companies and rate-sensitive growth stocks. But investors remained cautious because long-term bond yields were still elevated. IInvesting.com
So the STOXX 600’s +0.5% doesn’t really represent a return to carefree risk-taking. It was more of a relief rally within a difficult macro environment.
🇩🇪 DAX — Germany stabilizes
The DAX finished at 25,408.64, gaining 0.56% Friday and approximately 0.4% for the week. Importantly, that broke a three-week losing streak. MMarketScreener Canada
Germany’s market was particularly sensitive to the oil story because its large industrial sector is exposed to:
energy costs;
global manufacturing;
European demand;
interest rates;
global trade.
The decline in crude therefore helped German equities late in the week.
There was also considerable stock-specific movement. Evonik rose 7.19%, while BASF fell 3.59% and Airbus declined 1.02% on Friday. MMarketScreener Canada
The important distinction is that the DAX wasn’t being driven by one single theme such as Japan’s AI rally. It was primarily responding to the macro combination of energy prices, rates and industrial earnings expectations.
What to watch in Germany
The major issue going forward is whether high energy prices become persistent enough to create a stagflationary environment—weakening industrial demand while keeping inflation elevated.
That would be particularly relevant for Germany because of its industrial/export-heavy economy.
🇬🇧 FTSE 100 — comparatively defensive
The FTSE 100 closed Friday at 10,695.25, up 0.14% on the day. TTheCloseReport
London had a somewhat different composition from Frankfurt and Paris.
The FTSE 100 has substantial exposure to:
energy;
mining;
banks;
pharmaceuticals;
consumer staples;
other mature, international companies.
That gives it somewhat different sensitivity to the oil/yield shock.
Higher oil isn’t necessarily uniformly negative for the FTSE, because large energy companies can benefit from higher crude prices. At the same time, higher inflation and bond yields can pressure domestic consumers and interest-sensitive sectors.
This helped make the FTSE relatively resilient compared with some continental European markets during parts of the week.
🇫🇷 CAC 40 — essentially flat
The CAC 40 ended Friday at 8,077.80, almost unchanged at −0.04%. TTheCloseReport
France’s index has a particularly important exposure to luxury goods and globally oriented consumer companies.
That makes the CAC sensitive not only to European economic conditions but also to:
Chinese consumer demand;
global travel;
currency movements;
global wealth effects;
interest rates.
The CAC had already fallen 0.52% Thursday to 8,081.43, when higher oil prices and rising bond yields hit European equities
Friday’s near-flat result therefore represented stabilization rather than a major new buying wave.
What really drove European markets this week?
1. 🛢️ Oil was the biggest swing factor
This was probably the clearest theme.
Europe entered the week worried that the Middle East conflict would keep crude elevated and feed directly into inflation.
When oil rose, investors immediately worried about:
The second major issue was the global bond selloff.
Higher government yields make equities less attractive on a relative basis and particularly affect companies whose valuations depend heavily on future earnings growth.
Europe was already dealing with elevated inflation expectations. Earlier in September, euro-area inflation had moved above 3%, while rising energy prices pushed government bond yields to multi-year highs and increased expectations of tighter ECB policy.
So Friday’s stock-market rebound shouldn’t be interpreted as the bond problem disappearing.
3. 🏦 Europe is caught between growth and inflation
This is the difficult setup:
Oil ↑ → inflation risk ↑ → central banks less able to ease → bond yields ↑ → equity valuations pressured
Putting this alongside your previous Asian-market summary gives a useful picture:
Region
Week’s dominant issue
Market response
🇪🇺 Europe
Oil + bond yields
Moderate recovery
🇩🇪 Germany
Oil + industrial exposure
~+0.4%
🇬🇧 UK
Energy/defensive composition
Relatively resilient
🇫🇷 France
Luxury + global demand + yields
~flat
🇯🇵 Japan
AI/chips + dividends
Strongly positive
🇮🇳 India
Oil + foreign outflows
Negative
🇨🇳🇭🇰 China/Hong Kong
China/U.S. uncertainty
Negative
The contrast is quite striking: Japan had an equity-specific AI/dividend catalyst, whereas European markets were largely trading the oil-versus-yields equation.
Bottom line
European equities had a relief week, not a decisive change in trend.
The STOXX 600’s +0.5% and DAX’s ~+0.4% were helped by falling oil prices and a rebound on Friday. The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 were much more subdued. But elevated bond yields and the possibility of renewed energy-driven inflation remain the key risks.
In other words:
Europe got a reprieve from oil this week, but the bond market is still telling investors to remain cautious.
The week was mixed but generally defensive across Asia. The common macro pressures were oil above US$100, sharply higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and uncertainty around U.S.–Iran and U.S.–China relations. Reuters noted that longer-dated U.S. yields reached two-decade highs, while Brent was around US$105/bbl.
Weekly figures are consistent with the Sept. 25 market summaries; Shanghai and Hong Kong were affected by the Mid-Autumn holiday, while Japan’s week was holiday-shortened.
🇦🇺 ASX 200 — defensive pressure
The ASX 200 fell about 0.7% for the week, finishing Friday at 8,665, its lowest level since June. Friday alone was −0.43%. M
The interesting part was the sector split:
Technology fell 1.66% Friday.
Consumer discretionary fell 1.37%.
Utilities fell 1.25%.
Materials fell 0.84%.
Financials actually gained 0.27%.
Lithium miners were hit as Chinese lithium-carbonate futures weakened.
Wealth-platform stocks were pressured by developments surrounding a First Guardian class action.
What it means: Australia’s market is particularly sensitive to the combination of commodity prices + China + global bond yields. Higher oil helps energy producers but raises inflation concerns; weaker Chinese commodity demand hurts parts of Australia’s materials complex.
🇯🇵 Nikkei — the standout
Japan was the clear positive outlier.
The Nikkei 225 gained just over 2% for the holiday-shortened week, closing Friday at 66,364.20, after gaining 1.30% on Friday alone. IIndo Premier Sekuritas
Two forces dominated:
1. AI/chip enthusiasm
Tokyo Electron rose 4.82% and Advantest 2.84%, while Ibiden gained 4.2% Friday after a much larger gain the previous session. Semiconductor-related companies were major contributors. IIndo Premier Sekuritas
2. Dividend buying
Investors were buying shares ahead of the deadline for qualifying for Japan’s mid-term dividends. Banks were particularly strong; the TSE banking sector rose 4.08% Friday. IIndo Premier Sekuritas
There was also an important bond-market development: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached 3.075%, its highest since 1996, as Japanese markets reopened after the Silver Week holiday.
Bottom line: Japan’s equity market was able to shrug off the global bond/yield pressure because AI/chip momentum and dividend demand were powerful enough to dominate during the week.
🇮🇳 Nifty 50 — oil is the problem
The Nifty 50 fell 0.88%, ending at 23,140.50. More importantly, this was its seventh consecutive weekly decline.
The principal macro problem for India is oil.
India imports a substantial amount of its energy, so higher crude prices can:
increase India’s import bill;
put pressure on the rupee;
increase inflation concerns;
keep Indian bond yields elevated;
reduce expectations for easier monetary policy;
squeeze corporate margins and consumers.
At the same time, elevated U.S. Treasury yields encouraged global investors to remain cautious toward emerging-market equities. Reuters specifically highlighted high oil prices, rising bond yields and foreign fund outflows as major pressures on Indian equities. MMarketScreener Canada
The Nifty’s seven-week losing streak is notable: Reuters reported that stretches of seven or more weekly declines had occurred only four times in the preceding 25 years, with the previous episodes including 2020, 2008 and 2001. MMarketScreener Canada
Bottom line: India wasn’t suffering from a China-style growth shock; it was primarily a macro/valuation/liquidity problem, with oil and global yields working against equities.
🇭🇰 Hang Seng — China uncertainty returns
The Hang Seng fell about 1% for the week, finishing Friday at 24,510.09, its lowest level in two months. Friday’s decline was also about 1%. IIndo Premier Sekuritas
The immediate catalyst was uncertainty following the Trump–Xi summit.
The two sides extended their trade truce, but investors received limited evidence of breakthroughs on:
AI and technology;
trade;
Taiwan;
investment;
Iran/geopolitical issues. IIndo Premier Sekuritas
Technology and insurance stocks led Friday’s decline: AIA fell 2.7% and Alibaba 1.5%. IIndo Premier Sekuritas
An important market-structure issue also mattered: mainland China was closed Friday and southbound Stock Connect trading was shut, producing unusually thin Hong Kong trading.
Bottom line: Hong Kong investors wanted more concrete evidence from the U.S.–China meeting. The extension of the truce reduced some tail risk, but it didn’t remove the underlying technology/trade/geopolitical disputes.
🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite — quiet, cautious week
The Shanghai Composite finished at 3,888.37, with the weekly change around −0.6%.
The number needs some qualification because mainland Chinese markets were closed Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. They were scheduled to reopen Monday for only three trading sessions before the National Day holiday.
So Shanghai didn’t get a Friday session in which investors could directly react to the final Trump–Xi developments.
That makes the Hang Seng a more immediate indicator of how investors interpreted the summit at the end of the week.
The big picture
I’d characterize the week as a three-way split:
Japan = AI + dividends → ↑
Australia/India = oil + yields → ↓
Hong Kong/China = U.S.–China uncertainty + holidays → ↓
The common denominator was the global bond market. U.S. long-term yields surged, with the 10-year around 5.2% and the 30-year around 5.48% late in the week. At the same time, Brent remained around US$105.
That combination is important because it raises the discount rate applied to equities while simultaneously increasing inflation concerns. High-growth/long-duration stocks are particularly sensitive to higher yields, while oil-importing economies such as India face an additional earnings/inflation problem.
One-line takeaway
Asia’s week was not a broad risk-off collapse: Japan’s AI-led rally stood out, while Australia and India were squeezed by oil and yields, and Chinese/Hong Kong equities remained constrained by unresolved U.S.–China issues and holiday-thinned trading.
U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in a historic state dinner on Thursday, joined by bosses at tech giants including Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI and SpaceX.
AI was a key topic of conversation during Trump-Xi talks earlier in the day, after safety concerns shot to the top of the global geopolitical agenda in recent weeks.
While the China camp’s post-meeting readout sounded friendly, there were flashpoints that could’ve made for a tense conversation.
It’s the morning after the night before, as the U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in a historic state dinner. Fricassée, sea bass and crémeux were all on the menu, as presumably, was a whole lot of chatter about AI.
Seated with the U.S. and Chinese presidential couples were Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and his wife Lori Huang, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and AMD’s Lisa Su, as well as Apple’s Tim Cook. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and president Greg Brockman, Google cofounder Sergey Brin and Microsoft boss Satya Nadella were also all on the guest list.
Warnings around the existential risks of AI reaching fever pitch in recent weeks have pushed AI to the top of the global geopolitical agenda.
Trump posted to Truth Social ahead of his and Xi’s head-to-head.
“Super Intelligence (SI) will be a big topic of discussion, but I want to leave it exactly where it is. That is China’s position also,” he wrote Thursday morning, using the term he recently adopted instead of AI.
So what did they actually discuss?
China pushes AI cooperation
A Chinese readout of the meeting said President Xi pointed out that China and the U.S. “may have competition, but they may cooperate even more” in AI.
“The two sides can continue their dialogue on AI, exchange views on its risks and benefits, and jointly prevent the misuse and abuse of AI,” Xi said, per the readout. “AI must be kept under human control. A people-centered approach should be upheld, and AI should be developed for the positive and for good, so that AI will serve the progress of humanity.”
Trump, the Chinese readout stated, said the two sides should “maintain dialogue and strengthen cooperation on AI.” The U.S. government had not issued its own readout of the summit as we went live.
Those references to cooperation come after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed a “U.S.-China AI dialogue” with his Chinese counterpart, He Lifeng, over the weekend, including a channel for incidents “up to a national security level.”
That has been compared to the Cold War era “red phone” — a direct channel between the U.S. and Russia designed to prevent a nuclear crisis escalating.
Both U.S. and Chinese administrations had already shot down the idea of guardrails or a slowdown in developing the tech, which Altman and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei had called for, alongside a number of their companies’ researchers.
Flashpoints
While more details about the meeting are expected to be released in the days to come, specifics are scant so far.
“It appears we ended up with an intent to continue dialogue, along with a hotline of some sort for emergencies,” Aalok Mehta, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC.
While the China camp’s post-meeting readout sounds friendly, there were a number of flashpoints that could’ve made for a tense conversation.
U.S. export controls that restrict China’s ability to import advanced Nvidia chips were set to remain a sticking point.
Though, as CNBC reported on Wednesday, recent new chip releases and AI models from Chinese tech giants sharpen Beijing’s case that Washington’s restrictions have their limits.
Friction could also have come from Chinese companies’ reported remote access to Nvidia chips, via overseas data centers, and American claims of “distillation.”
Time will tell if any progress was made on those issues. And if it was, there’s no guarantee if either side will reveal any specific commitments.
But ongoing discussions could lead to agreements around AI with more substance, said Mehta.
“The hotline itself could become a robust tool when paired with a proper incident reporting system. But that will take real commitment to making it work and high-level engagement from both sides.”
News edit
An OpenAI agent gained unauthorized access to an Australian government website, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, raising fresh questions about the risks posed by increasingly autonomous systems.
Anthropic and OpenAI on Tuesday each announced new, less costly AI models as both frontier labs continue to face stiff competition from cheaper, open-weight competitors.
AMD stock surged 10% on Monday, pushing shares to a record high and topping a $1 trillion market cap benchmark for the first time.
Qualcomm unveiled its newest Android phone chipsets, which will be tuned for on-device AI and will compete with Apple’s A20 Pro in iPhones.
OpenAI on Monday posted a set of proposals for AI safety with a heavy focus on alignment research and a computing technique known as recursive self-improvement, or RSI.
One more thing
And lastly, we leave you with a hot take from an esteemed colleague. Senior tech correspondent Arjun Kharpal had this to say on Meta’s Muse agent:
Meta’s Muse is more of a challenge to Google than OpenAI and Anthropic.
The consumer AI market is still up for grabs and the biggest players are going to be those that can produce a useful agent, the type that companies have promised. Plus, they’ll need to earn the trust of users, especially as we have had all of these cybersecurity incidents recently.
Google has all the ingredients to have done this first — control of a mobile operating system in Android, search dominance, a plethora of apps from email to maps. All of that should have allowed it to create a useful agent with Gemini that could potentially be powerful on Android devices, which make up the majority of the world’s smartphones.
But Meta has beaten it to the punch.
That’s not to say Google is down and out, but Meta has certainly laid down the gauntlet. To some extent, Meta is also challenging Apple to come up with something strong with Siri to ensure the Cupertino giant can leverage its massive install base of iOS users.
