Author: Consultant

WASHINGTON — House Republicans on Saturday unveiled their stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown set to begin next weekend. But with just five legislative days left until the deadline, Congress has little room for error.

Just two and a half weeks into the job, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., opted to go with a two-step continuing resolution, or CR, over a more typical funding extension covering the entire federal government. The untested funding approach is aimed at appeasing far-right agitators in his GOP conference who despise CRs.

The House is expected to vote as early as Tuesday to give members 72 hours to read the text of the bill, according to two people familiar with matter. The plan does not include budget cuts or aid for Israel.

Under the two-step strategy — which Johnson and others have dubbed a “laddered CR” but which others have likened to a step stool — several spending bills needed to keep the government open would be extended until Jan. 19, while the remaining bills would go on a CR until Feb. 2.

GOP hardliners had been pushing Johnson to include budget cuts as part of his two-tiered CR plan, a source involved in discussions told NBC News. One House Republican, Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, quickly voiced his opposition to the bill shortly after it was released.

“It’s a 100% clean. And I 100% oppose,” Roy tweeted. “My opposition to the clean CR just announced by the Speaker to the @HouseGOP cannot be overstated. Funding Pelosi level spending & policies for 75 days — for future “promises.”

The plan is designed to avoid a messy showdown right before the holidays and buy Johnson and House Republicans more time to pass individual spending bills, but also create a sense of urgency with staggered funding cliffs. But it remains to be seen if the plan can pass the House, much less the Democratic-controlled Senate, which has dismissed the two-tiered approach.

“This two-step continuing resolution is a necessary bill to place House Republicans in the best position to fight for conservative victories,” Johnson said in a statement after he announced the plan. “The bill will stop the absurd holiday-season omnibus tradition of massive, loaded up spending bills introduced right before the Christmas recess.”

He added: “Separating out the CR from the supplemental funding debates places our conference in the best position to fight for fiscal responsibility, oversight over Ukraine aid, and meaningful policy changes at our Southern border.”

The laddered plan has the backing of Congress’ most conservative members, including Republicans who normally never vote for stopgap bills. If Johnson could get a temporary funding bill passed with only Republican votes, that would help him notch an early win among conservatives.

“I like the ladder approach,” said Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., a member of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. “I think if we try to pass some appropriations bills, we’re doing better than we’ve done in the past.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/11/house-republicans-unveil-their-plan-to-avert-a-government-shutdown-next-week.html

UPDATED FRI, NOV 10 20234:42 PM EST

Stocks rallied Friday, recovering the ground lost in the previous session, as Treasury yields stabilized.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 391.16 points, or 1.15% to close at 34,283.10. The S&P 500 climbed 1.56% to finish the session at 4,415.24. The Nasdaq Composite added 2.05% to 13,798.11, notching its best day since May.

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 were positive Friday, but tech outperformed, rising 2.6%. Microsoft leapt to all-time highs during the session and ended the day higher by 2.5%. Apple, Meta, Tesla and Netflix jumped more than 2% each, while Alphabet gained 1.8%.

Friday’s surge was also enough to lift the three major averages for a second consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, while the Dow added about 0.7%. The Nasdaq was the outperformer, rising roughly 2.4% on the week.

Stocks staged a rebound as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovered around the flatline.

It was a marked reversal from Thursday’s action in which the rate on the 10-year jumped more than 10 basis points. The spike in yields followed a dismal Treasury Department bond auction and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that suggested more intervention may be needed to quell inflation.

Thursday’s ensuing sell-off also snapped the longest winning streaks for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite in two years.

Recent volatility notwithstanding, a resilient economy has helped equities even as investors remain uncertain about the Fed’s timeline around rate policy, according to UBS.

“A continued high level of unfilled job openings and solid private sector balance sheets support our view for a ‘softish’ economic landing,” UBS’ David Lefkowitz wrote in in a Friday note. “Still, economic growth will likely slow in the months ahead and further improvements in inflation will probably be more incremental.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy.

Suncor Energy Inc. says it earned a profit of $1.54 billion in the third quarter of 2023, compared to a net loss of $609 million in the prior year’s quarter.

The Calgary-based energy giant says its earnings work out to $1.19 per share, compared to a loss of 45 cents per common share in the same three months of 2022.

On an adjusted basis, Suncor earned $1.98 billion or $1.52 per common share in the third quarter of 2023, compared to $2.57 billion or $1.88 per common share in the third quarter of 2022.

The company attributed the decrease in adjusted earnings to lower crude prices year-over-year and a weaker business environment, as well as increased royalties and decreased sales volumes due to international asset divestments.

Suncor’s total upstream production was 690,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 724,100 boe/d in the same period last year.

Refinery throughput was 463,200 barrels per day and refinery utilization was 99 per cent in the third quarter of 2023, compared to 466,600 barrels per day and 100 per cent utilization in the prior year’s quarter.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2023.

Monday November 13

Canada’s Remembrance Day (stock markets open, bond markets closed)

China’s aggregate yuan financing, new loans and money supply

Japan machine tool orders

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for October.

Earnings include: Computer Modelling Group Ltd.; Orla Mining Ltd.; Power Corp. of Canada; Sun Life Financial Inc.; Tyson Foods Inc.; XP Inc.

—

Tuesday November 14

Euro zone GDP

(4:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle participates in a panel on “Challenges for Financial Stability and Financial Regulation amid Heightened Uncertainty” in Zurich.

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for October. The Street is forecasting an increase of 0.1 per cent from September and up 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: Africa Oil Corp.; Aya Gold & Silver Inc.; Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund; Dream Unlimited Corp.; Headwater Exploration Inc.; Home Depot Inc.; H&R REIT; Premium Brands Holdings Corp.; Strathcona Resources Ltd.; Torex Gold Resources Ltd.

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Wednesday November 15

China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investments

Japan GDP and industrial production

Euro zone industrial production and trade surplus

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales and new orders for September. Estimates are month-over-month increases of 0.7 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for September. Estimate is a flat reading from August.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for September. Estimate is a year-over-year rise of 20.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for October. The Street is expecting a decline of 0.3 per cent from September (or a 0.2-per-cent drop excluding automobiles)

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI final demand for October. Consensus is a rise of 0.1 per cent from September and 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) Canadian existing home sales and average prices for October. Estimates are year-over-year increases of 1.5 per cent for both.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for October. Estimate is a year-over-year increase of 1.5 per cent

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for September.

Also: U.S. President Joe Biden meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco.

Earnings include: Cisco Systems Inc.; Freehold Royalties Ltd.; Loblaw Companies Ltd.; Metro Inc.; NetEase Inc.; Palo Alto Networks Inc.; Seabridge Gold Inc.; Target Corp.; TJX Companies Inc.; Well Health Technologies Corp.

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Thursday November 16

Japan’s trade deficit and core machine orders

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for October. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 2.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Nov. 11. Estimate is 222,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for October. The Street is projecting a decline of 0.3 per cent from September and a drop of 1.8 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index for November.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for October. Consensus is a month-over-month decline of 0.3 per cent with capacity utilization sliding 0.2 per cent to 79.5 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for November.

(11 a.m. ET) U.S. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for November.

Earnings include: Alibaba ADR; Applied Materials Inc.; Birchcliff Energy Ltd.; Macy’s Inc.; Ross Stores Inc.; Sigma Lithium Resources Corp.; Strathcona Resources Ltd.; Walmart Inc.

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Friday November 17

Euro zone CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for October. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 0.1 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for October. The Street expects an annualized rate decline of 0.6 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for October. Consensus is a decline of 1.4 per cent on annualized rate basis.

Earnings include: Real Matters Inc.

Published: 11/10/2023 4:59 AM ET

Gold prices eased on Friday and were set for weekly losses of about 2 percent after a string of hawkish comments from Fed, ECB and BoE policymakers. Waning concerns over the Israel-Hamas war also dented demand for bullion.

Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to $1,954.86 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were down half a percent at $1,959.55.

The dollar strengthened and Treasury yields spiked following a weak sale of 30-year notes and comments Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the U.S. central bank “will not hesitate” to resume raising rates if it becomes appropriate.

Powell said that inflation has slowed over the past year but the process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2 percent has a long way to go.

Elsewhere, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a newspaper interview that it is premature to discuss European Central Bank rate cuts.

Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill said the monetary policy needs to be restrictive in order to bring inflation back to the target.

In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday his country does not seek to conquer, occupy or govern Gaza after its war against Hamas but a civilian government would need to take shape in Gaza and Israel would make sure an attack like Oct. 7 does not happen again.

Saputo Inc. says it earned $156 million in its second quarter, up from $145 million a year earlier.

The Montreal-based company says revenues for the quarter ended Sept. 30 were $4.3 billion, down from 4.5 billion during the same quarter last year.

Earnings per diluted share were 37 cents, up from 35 cents a year earlier.

Saputo says overall sales volumes were stable in its second quarter despite continued softening of global demand for dairy products, with higher domestic sales volumes more than offsetting lower volumes on the export side.

The company says during the rest of the financial year it expects to benefit from the carryover impact of price increases as well as other initiatives.

It also expects near-term inflation on its overall input costs to moderate, but remain elevated.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2023.

Linamar Corp. says it sales and income got a boost in the third quarter thanks in part to its diversification efforts away from contracts reliant on gasoline-powered vehicles.

Sales were $2.43 billion in the third quarter, up from $2.1 billion in the same quarter last year, as the industrial segment of the manufacturer grew faster than its automotive division.

Linamar says it earned $146.7 million, or $2.38 per share, in the quarter ending Sept. 30, up from $133.2 million, or $2.10 per share, last year.

Adjusted earnings were $2.21 per share, up from $1.91 last year, while analyst had expected earnings of $2.07 per share according to financial markets data firm Refinitiv.

The company says it continues to set itself up for the electric vehicle transition, including with its recent acquisition of the Mobex chassis and suspension business.

It says 57 per cent of new business contracts for its mobility division are for EVs, while 74 per cent of new business wins in the segment are either ‘propulsion agnostic’ or for EVs.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2023.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in November, and households’ expectations for inflation rose again, with their medium-term outlook for price pressures shooting to the highest in more than a dozen years, a survey showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 60.4, the lowest since May, from October’s final reading of 63.8.

The median expectation among economists in a Reuters poll had been for the index to be little changed at 63.7.

The survey’s preliminary gauge of current conditions fell to 65.7 from last month’s final level of 70.6, while the expectations index slid to 56.9 from 59.3 in October. Like the headline index, both subindexes were the lowest since May.

Consumers’ outlook for inflation in the year ahead rose for a second month to a seven-month high of 4.4%. Over a five-year horizon, consumers expect inflation to average 3.2%, up from 3.0% in October and the highest since March 2011.

Officials at the Federal Reserve, who have raised interest rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to lower inflation from four-decade highs, keep close tabs on consumers’ attitudes about price trends. They are keen to see inflation expectations trend lower so as not to alter consumption behaviour that could reverse the gains they have made in slowing the pace of price increases.

Thanks largely to persistent inflation, American households have held a broadly sour view of the U.S. economy and their own prospects ever since the pandemic struck in early 2020, even though overall employment is back to record highs, jobless rates are near historic lows, wages have been rising faster than before the health crisis, and overall economic growth has been running well above trend.

Brookfield Corp. BN-T -1.82%decrease is stockpiling spare cash and refinancing loans across its portfolios in anticipation of an uptick in deal-making over the course of next year as confidence returns to volatile markets.

The parent company of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. BAM-T -0.16%decrease is sitting on US$120-billion of capital that is available to be deployed, with US$4-billion in cash and undrawn credit lines and another US$60-billion in liquid securities.

Given widespread uncertainty in financial markets, Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt reminded investors that “cash is king” in a letter to shareholders. Higher interest rates have made it tougher for asset managers and private-market investors to fundraise or secure financing, which has curbed deal-making.

But Brookfield appears to have largely resisted those trends so far. And Mr. Flatt said he believes interest rates “have crested around the world” and, as inflation cools, confidence in pricing financial risks is gradually increasing.

All of that should add up to “a very busy period of transaction activity through to the end of next year,” he said. And though Brookfield has been spending some of its cash on share buybacks, as the company believes its shares are undervalued, it expects to rebuild that cash pile and to see more opportunities to put it to work.

Brookfield Corp.’s distributable earnings – a measure of the company’s profits that could be paid out to shareholders – were down 2.6 per cent to nearly US$1.1-billion in the third quarter, before accounting for realizations and after adjusting for the spinoff of the asset manager as a separate business.

Over the past 12 months, distributable earnings before realizations increased 11 per cent year-over-year to US$4.2-billion.

Brookfield earned a profit of US$35-million, or 12 U.S. cents a share, compared with US$716-million, or 24 U.S. cents a share, in the same quarter last year, when profits were boosted by one-time valuation gains.

Over the first nine months of the year, Brookfield has sold about US$25-billion of assets, and US$35-billion over the past 12 months, to bolster its cash reserves.

The company is also waiting to close its acquisition of insurers Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. and American Equity Investment Life Holding Co., which would double the insurance float available to be invested to US$100-billion.

At the same time, the company has refinanced nearly US$15-billion of debt in its private equity business, without significantly increasing its overall cost of debt. And it has refinanced US$23-billion of debt across 131 real estate loans, despite the mounting pressure on commercial real estate.