https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html
U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in October, leaving the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates next month.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 per cent last month after advancing 0.6 per cent in September, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI climbing 0.3 per cent over the month.
The BLS did not publish year-over-year inflation readings because last year’s federal government shutdown prevented the collection of consumer price data in October 2025, leaving no comparison base. Annual consumer inflation jumped 3.7 per cent in September.
Inflation is running well above the U.S. central bank’s 2-per-cent target. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has boosted oil prices, combining with the import tariffs implemented by the Trump administration last year to lift the cost of living.
High inflation contributed to the heavy losses suffered by President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the midterm elections last week.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3 per cent last month after gaining 0.3 per cent in September. The so-called core CPI was forecast to have climbed 0.2 per cent in October.
The missing data from last year have no impact on the calculation of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index readings that are tracked by the Fed to gauge progress toward its inflation target. Both measures are running above 3 per cent.
Early on Tuesday, financial markets fully priced in a 25 basis points rate hike next month. The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.75-4.00-per-cent range last month.
Economists said only a substantial sell-off on the equity markets or widening credit spreads would prevent the Fed from tightening monetary policy in December. US stocks slumped last week after the Democrats’ sweeping victory fanned fears that new regulations could dent the durability of the AI trade. Stocks rallied on Monday as oil prices fell.
The biggest economic surprise was Friday’s jobs report. The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, versus 65,000 expected, and unemployment edged down from 4.2% to 4.1%. U.S. Treasury yields initially rose after the release as markets weighed the prospect of a December Fed rate hike. October 2026
| Date | Event | Result and significance |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 2 | ISM manufacturing PMI | Rose to 55.5 from 54.5. Factory activity expanded faster, led by stronger production. ismworld.org |
| Tue, Nov 3 | Job openings and midterm elections | September job openings were 7.5 million, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics characterized as little changed. In the midterms, Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, changing the outlook for federal legislation and oversight. 2026 M09 Results |
| Wed, Nov 4 | ADP jobs, services PMI and trade | ADP reported 86,000 private-sector jobs added in October. The ISM services PMI eased to 54.5 from 54.9, still above the 50 expansion threshold. September’s goods and services trade deficit narrowed to US$105.0B from US$105.7B. Nov 4, 2026 |
| Thu, Nov 5 | Jobless claims and Q3 productivity | Initial claims fell to 189,000 from 195,000. Nonfarm business productivity rose 3.6% annualized, while unit labour costs fell 0.7% annualized. apnews.com |
| Fri, Nov 6 | Official jobs report and consumer sentiment | Alongside the payroll surprise, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month and 3.1% year over year. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 51.0 from 48.0, above the Reuters consensus of 48.0. October 2026 |
TSX implications. Stronger U.S. hiring and manufacturing can support demand for Canadian exporters. If U.S. yields stay higher and Canadian yields follow, borrowing costs and valuations could come under pressure for rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs and utilities. The contrast between strong U.S. hiring and a Canadian jobs loss also mattered for the currency. The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar on Friday as expectations of further Bank of Canada tightening eased. reuters.com
Monday November 9
China CPI and producer prices
Germany trade surplus
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for September.
(10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey for Q3.
Earnings include: Berkshire Hathaway Inc.; Constellation Energy Corp.; CT REIT; Endeavour Silver Corp.; IA Financial Corp. Inc.; Occidental Petroleum Corp.; Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.; RB Global Inc.
Tuesday November 10
China trade deficit
Japan household spending and bank lending
(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for October.
(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP Employment (4-week average change) for Oct. 254.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for October. The Street is expecting a rise of 0.3 per cent from September.
(1:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberation for the Oct. 28 decision.
Earnings include: Altius Minerals Corp.; CCL Industries Inc.; Discovery Mining Ltd.; Finning International Inc.; Freehold Royalties Ltd.; Hydro One Ltd.; Keyera Corp.; Magellan Aerospace Corp.; Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.; Sea ADR; Superior Plus Corp.
Wednesday November 11
Canadian Remembrance Day (stock markets open, bond markets closed)
U.S. Veterans Day ((stock markets open, bond markets closed)
China aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans
Japan machine tool orders
Germany CPI
Earnings include: Bird Construction Inc.; CAE Inc.; Cargojet Inc.; CGI Inc.; Franco-Nevada Corp.; Osisko Metals Inc.; Power Corp. of Canada
Thursday November 12
China current account surplus
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for September.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Nov. 7. Estimate is 194,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for October. The Street is projecting an annualized rate decline of 3.0 per cent.
(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for October.
Earnings include: Applied Materials Inc.; Aya Gold & Silver Inc.; Brookfield Corp.; Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.; CES Energy Solutions Corp.; Choice Properties REIT; Cisco Systems Inc.; Endeavour Mining Corp.; Exchange Income Corp.; G Mining Ventures Corp.; Hudbay Minerals Inc.; Northland Power Inc.; Sienna Senior Living Inc.; Skeena Resources Ltd.; Stantec Inc.
Friday November 13
Euro zone GDP and trade deficit
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales and new orders for September.
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for September.
(8:30 am. ET) U.S. PPI for October. The Street is estimating a rise of 0.4 per cent from September and up 6.5 per cent year-over-year
Earnings include: Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund; Kelt Exploration Ltd.; Onex Corp.
Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report is the biggest scheduled market event. The two geopolitical risks are Canada–U.S. tariff talks for autos and industrials, and U.S.–Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz shipping for energy.
| Date | Event | Why it matters for the TSX |
|---|---|---|
| Mon., Nov. 9 | Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey, 10:30 a.m. ET | Shows where market participants expect Canadian rates and growth to go. Watch Canadian bond yields and the dollar for the reaction. |
| Tue., Nov. 10 | U.S. October CPI, 8:30 a.m. ET | Strong U.S. jobs data had already lifted December Fed rate-hike odds to roughly 80% as of Friday. Hotter core inflation could lift yields and the U.S. dollar, pressuring technology, REITs and gold. A softer reading could ease that pressure. |
| Tue., Nov. 10 | Bank of Canada summary of deliberations, 1:30 p.m. ET | The account of the October 28 decision will show how policymakers weighed inflation against weak growth. A shift in Canadian rate expectations could move banks, REITs and utilities. |
| Thu.–Fri., Nov. 12–13 | Canadian building permits Thursday. Canadian manufacturing and wholesale trade, plus U.S. producer prices, Friday. | The Canadian releases gauge domestic demand and industrial activity. U.S. producer prices provide a second inflation test after CPI. |
| Fri., Nov. 13 | IEA monthly oil market report | Changes to global supply and demand forecasts could move crude prices and Canadian producers such as CNQ and Suncor. |
TSX earnings to watch include Barrick (ABX) Monday, CGI (GIB.A) Wednesday and Canadian Tire (CTC.A) Thursday. The key reads are mining costs, IT services demand and discretionary spending, respectively.
The TSX Composite gained 5.02%. Technology, financials and consumer staples led the sectors shown. Energy gave back most of its October surge, while health care and materials recovered late but still finished below where they started.
| Sector | Six-month move | What the chart shows |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | +14.15% | Strongest sector shown, even after pulling back from an October peak near +25%. |
| Financials | +11.66% | Climbed through the summer and regained ground in October after a September pullback. |
| Consumer staples | +9.18% | Strengthened in October and held most of those gains into November. |
| Industrials | +5.69% | Recovered in October and finished slightly ahead of the TSX despite a late pullback. |
| Energy | +5.03% | Reached roughly +20% in late October before falling back in line with the TSX. |
| Consumer discretionary | +2.62% | Recovered from a September slump but gave back some of that rebound in early November. |
| Health care | −3.70% | Rebounded from an October low near −15%. |
| Materials | −4.70% | The weakest finish among the sectors shown, despite a sharp rebound in the final sessions. |
The TSX’s +0.52% at the top of the chart is Friday’s gain. +5.02% is its six-month gain.
The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 per cent in October as Statistics Canada says more people were looking for work.
That’s up from 6.5 per cent in September and came alongside a loss of 4,700 jobs in October.
The labour market has been in a tough stretch lately, having shed 110,000 jobs cumulatively across September and August. A Reuters poll of economists had expected the economy would bounce back with a gain of 13,600 jobs in October.
Private sector employment fell by 53,000 positions last month, marking the first decline in the segment since February. Employment in the public sector, meanwhile, was up 50,000 positions.
Statscan noted that, on a year-over-year basis, private sector jobs are still up while the public sector is down.
The unemployment rate for young workers aged 15 to 24 jumped to 13.7 per cent in October, up 0.7 percentage points from September, as employment edged down and more youth looked for work.
Young workers have faced a generally tough labour market in recent years but there had been little change in the jobless rate for the age group over the summer.
Young workers face tough job market, but AI is not necessarily to blame, report finds
Statscan said the unemployment rate was higher for students compared with youth not attending school.
Employment in the wholesale and retail trade industry has trended down over the past year and the sector led losses in October, shedding 29,000 roles. Transportation and warehousing and food and accommodation also posted losses last month, offset by some gains in construction and education.
Statscan said the layoff rate – the proportion of people employed in September who were laid off by October – was “virtually unchanged” compared with a year earlier at 0.7 per cent.
Average hourly wages rose 2.2 per cent annually in October, edging down from 2.3 per cent in September.
The October job figures come a little over a week after the Bank of Canada delivered its first interest rate hike in more than three years. Officials at the central bank said at the time that resilience in the economy and fears inflation could start to spread justified raising the policy rate by a quarter point to 2.5 per cent.
The U.S. economy added jobs at a much stronger than expected pace in October, while the unemployment rate moved lower as the labor market showed surprising strength.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 165,000 for the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for 59,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate nudged down to 4.1%, compared with the forecast for 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose to 7.9%, up 0.3 percentage point, amid an increase of 421,000 in the civilian labor force.
In addition to the strong payroll gains for October, prior months were revised up substantially: The August figure moved up to 186,000, an upward revision of 53,000, while the September count moved to 60,000 following an upward revision of 31,000.
Payroll gains also came in better than forecast. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and 3.1% annually, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%. The average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
“Today’s jobs report is a strong rebuttal to fears that the economy is heading into a meaningful slowdown,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “Payrolls growth surprised firmly to the upside, unemployment fell back to 4.1%, and job creation remains broad-based, pointing to an economy that is still absorbing labor comfortably rather than one beginning to buckle under tighter financial conditions.”
The breadth of job growth also was strong, contrary to a trend in which health care had accounted for the bulk of gains.
Professional and business services saw an increase of 70,000 to lead all sectors, while health care was next at 42,000. Other areas seeing notable growth included transportation and warehousing (25,000) and manufacturing (19,000).
The report comes the same week as an election in which the economy and in particular inflation was the center of attention. Democrats staged a nationwide rout that will give the party control of both houses of Congress after campaigning heavily on addressing affordability issues.
For the Federal Reserve, the report also comes at a pivotal time. Central bankers are weighing whether to resume raising interest rates in December as inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target.
Traders increased the probability of another quarter percentage point hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets Dec. 8-9. Odds rose to 76.8%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, though the indicator pointed to only one more hike after. The odds of further hikes in 2027 have fallen somewhat in recent days, after the midterm election rout and Thursday’s sell-off in tech stocks.
Market reaction otherwise was muted, with a mixed picture on stock market futures heading into the open. Treasury yields were higher across the board.
The share of workers either looking for a job or already working as a share of the workforce, known as the labor force participation rate, edged higher to 61.9%. The labor force had been shrinking, the result of demographic changes and immigration reductions, but expanded by 421,000 in October.
At the same time, the household report, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed 463,000 more people at work.
AMD.TO (Advanced Micro Devices CDR, CAD-hedged) has seen a sharp recent share-price drop in line with the underlying U.S. AMD stock, driven by a broad semiconductor/AI sell-off rather than company-specific weakness. Near-term forecasts (next ~2 months) are mixed-to-cautious amid volatility, though longer-term analyst targets remain constructive.
Main reasons for the drop (despite strong Q3 results reported ~November 3):
Q3 fundamentals were solid: Revenue ~$13.38B (+45% YoY), data-center revenue nearly doubled (~$8.5B), and Q4 guidance of ~$17B (±3%) beat expectations. Management highlighted strong AI/data-center demand and projected very strong 2027 growth (e.g., revenue growth >80% in some commentary). The market largely ignored the beat in favor of macro/political risks.
Short-term (weeks to 2 months) outlook is volatile and uncertain, with no precise consensus price path. Key points:
AMD.TO specifically should continue tracking U.S. AMD closely due to the hedging structure. Liquidity and spreads can differ from the U.S. listing.
Nvidia CDR (CAD Hedged), typically ticker NVDA.TO (or similar CIBC CDR listing), has closely tracked the sharp recent drop in U.S.-listed NVDA shares. It is a CAD-hedged Canadian Depositary Receipt, so price moves largely mirror the underlying Nvidia stock with currency risk reduced.
Main drivers of the drop (despite strong company fundamentals):
Premarket indications on November 6 showed some rebound attempts in the U.S. shares (a few percent), but volatility remains high.
Short-term outlook is uncertain and volatile, with no precise consensus path for the next 8 weeks. Key elements:
NVDA.TO should continue tracking U.S. NVDA closely due to the hedging structure (performance differences mainly from hedge costs/spreads and local liquidity). Canadian investors benefit from CAD denomination without full USD exposure.
