Author: Consultant

Oil prices rose on Monday on a lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the ⁠Iran war, ​though the absence of major supply outages limited gains.

Brent crude futures were up 43 US cents, or 0.5 per cent, at US$88.95 a barrel by 9:13 a.m. TE after hitting a session high of US$89.68. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 25 US cents, or 0.3 per cent, to US$82.65 ​a barrel.

Both contracts gained more than 5% last week ‌following attacks on tankers operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz and on a Saudi Aramco refinery.

But Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB Research said that prices were unlikely to move substantially higher unless there was a halt in the current flow of crude out ‌through the Strait ​of Hormuz at night and/or ‌a closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

For now, prices were trading close to UDS$90 ​as traders weigh the risk of deeper disruption and shortages ⁠against the possibility of a resolution where the Strait of Hormuz is reopened ⁠and oil prices fall sharply, Schieldrop said.

Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had not ​decided to resume talks with the United States, while U.S. President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept slightly higher gasoline prices while the conflict continues.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said talks with Oman were continuing and were taking a long time due to the complexity of the subject, the involvement ⁠of multiple actors and countries seeking to undermine the process.

“Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, and negotiations have reached a stalemate, both of which limit the potential for further decline,” said Frank Walbaum, market analyst at trading platform Naga.com.

“In the absence of new catalysts, oil prices could continue to consolidate around current levels.”

Shipping through the Strait of ⁠Hormuz slowed over the weekend, data showed on Monday, ​following attacks on tankers. Five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, with none registered for Sunday, ⁠ship-tracking data from Kpler showed, versus 31 for the prior weekend.

Before U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began in late February, the ‌strait handled about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Meanwhile, ADNOC sold at least ​14 million barrels of spot crude to Asian refiners at premiums in its latest tender, trade sources said on Monday.

Saudi Aramco is offering crude oil outside of the Strait of Hormuz to some Asian refiners, two sources with knowledge of ​the matter said on Monday. 

July’s rebound in gas prices pushed the annual rate of inflation up to 3 per cent last month even as there were signs cost pressures were easing at the grocery store, Statistics Canada said Monday.

The acceleration in the consumer price index for July comes after inflation fell to 2.8 per cent in June. Heading into Monday’s release, most economists had expected inflation would rise just a tick to 2.9 per cent.

Volatility in gasoline prices was once again to blame for changes in the consumer price index.

Progress on peace talks between the United States and Iran helped tame energy prices and cooled inflation sharply in June, but renewed hostilities in the Middle East last month pushed global oil prices higher again.

Excluding gas, the consumer price index rose 2.2 per cent in July for a third consecutive month, Statscan said.

Higher jet fuel prices contributed to a 12-per-cent hike in the cost of airfares last month, up from 9.6 per cent in June, the agency said.

Travel tour costs also accelerated sharply in July, which Statscan attributed to more expensive hotels and flights to U.S. destination cities that were hosting FIFA World Cup games.

Poilievre asks Carney to extend gas tax relief until next year

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic said in a note to clients Monday that with the World Cup now over and gas prices receding over the first half of August, this month’s price data should show some reversals on those pain points.

Helping to offset those cost pressures in July was some relief at the grocery store. Statscan said inflation for food bought from the store cooled to 3.1 per cent in July, down from 3.9 per cent in the previous month.

Slowing price hikes for fresh vegetables and chicken products, as well as lower prices for cereal products, drove the decline. Inflation for fresh fruit, meanwhile, accelerated to 6.1 per cent from 1.7 per cent previously as prices rose for berries and melons.

Despite the slowdown, grocery store inflation has now outpaced the all-items consumer price index for 18 consecutive months.

Mark Carney unveils $1-billion food strategy for Canada to offset inflation

The July inflation figures mark the Bank of Canada’s last look at price data before its next interest rate decision on Sept. 2. The central bank has held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25 per cent in six straight decisions.

Kavcic pointed out that there was some firmness in the central bank’s preferred measures of core inflation last month. But even with some of the shorter-term measures of underlying inflation heating up, the long-run annual rates remain near the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent target.

Between a couple of strong gross domestic product and jobs reports in recent weeks, and the Aug. 19 deadline for new U.S. tariffs just days away, Kavcic said BMO is comfortable with its call for the central bank to remain on hold next month and for the remainder of 2026.

“There’s a lot of push and pull on the growth side of the Canadian economy – for example, a powerful Q2 rebound still to be tested by ongoing trade uncertainty,” Kavcic said. “But the inflation side is looking stable and well-behaved despite a bit of heat in July.”

CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham agreed with Kavcic that July’s core inflation measures were tame enough that the Bank of Canada should be in no rush to raise its benchmark interest rate in response to price pressures.

He said in a note that monetary policy-makers have plenty of time to gauge how oil price fluctuations and the tariff situation will resolve, and determine whether signs of an economic rebound will be sustained in the months to come.

CIBC forecasts no change in the benchmark interest rate until mid-2027.

Monday August 17

China retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

Japan real GDP and industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for July. The Street expects an increase of 0.5 per cent from June and up 3.0 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for June. Estimate is a year-over-year rise of 2.5 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for August.

(4 p.m. ET) U.S. TIC flows for June.

Earnings include: BHP Group Ltd.; New Found Gold Corp.

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Tuesday August 18

(5 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales and average prices for July. Estimates are year-over-year declines of 5.0 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively.

(5 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for July. Estimate is a decline of 3.5 per cent year-over-year.

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for July. Estimate is an annualized rate rise of 4.6 per cent.

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP Employment (4-week average change) for Aug. 1.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for July. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 5.4 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for July. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 0.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for July. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.1 per cent from June and up 6.9 per cent year-over-year.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for July. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.3 per cent with capacity utilization remaining 76.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for July.

Earnings include: Baidu Inc.; Home Depot Inc.; Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.; Seabridge Gold Corp.

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Wednesday August 19

Japan core machine orders

Euro zone CPI and labour costs

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s household and mortgage credit for June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s construction investment for June.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed minutes from June 28-29 meeting are released.

Earnings include: Analog Devices Inc.; Estee Lauder Companies Inc.; Lowe’s Companies Inc.; Target Corp.; TJX Companies Inc.

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Thursday August 20

Japan trade deficit

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for July. Estimate is a decline of 0.1 per cent from June and down 2.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for July. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 0.5 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 15. Estimate is 212,000, a gain of 3,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for July.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q2.

Earnings include: AbraSilver Resource Corp.; Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.; Deere & Co.; Kraken Robotics Inc.; Ross Stores Inc.; Walmart Inc.

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Friday August 21

Japan’s CPI and manufacturing and services PMI

Euro zone’s manufacturing and services PMI and consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for June. Consensus is a month-over-month gain of 0.4 per cent.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for August.

(10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q2.

Earnings include: Ubiquiti Networks Inc.

Air Canada shares are taking flight after the country’s largest airline announced it would sell a quarter of its Aeroplan loyalty program to Blackstone and a group of Canadian pension funds for $2.5 billion.

The carrier’s stock price jumped 15 per cent after markets opened Wednesday before settling to a roughly 10 per cent increase following the announcement the night before.

The sale marks a windfall for the Montreal-based company just as high fuel prices from the Middle East war deliver a half-billion-dollar hit to its earnings this year.

The Aeroplan buyers are led by private equity giant Blackstone and the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, with the Public Sector Pension Investment Board and the British Columbia Investment Management Corp. among the other investors.

Air Canada says it will maintain full control of the travel reward program’s day-to-day operations.

It plans to use proceeds from the deal to repay $1.7 billion in bonds and buy back up to $800 million in shares in September. 

The sale is set to close on Monday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 12, 2026.

Air Canada reported a net loss of $178 million during the second quarter, compared to net income of $186 million during the same period a year earlier.   

That amounted to a diluted loss per share of 63 cents during the quarter, compared with diluted earnings per share of 51 cents.    

Air Canada says its revenue reached $6.3 billion during the quarter, up year-over-year from $5.6 billion. 

Alongside its earnings, the airline also announced that funds managed by Blackstone, La Caisse and others are making a $2.5 billion minority equity investment in Aeroplan Inc.

Under the terms of the deal, the investor group will acquire a 25 percent non-controlling equity interest in Aeroplan. 

Air Canada will maintain full operational control of Aeroplan along with a controlling ownership interest.    

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 11, 2026.    

• The International Energy Agency said global oil demand is set to fall further than previously expected this year.
• Oman’s coastline is reportedly being affected by a massive oil spill caused by a leaking tanker.
• Deadly attacks on vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea have pushed worries over supply disruptions up another notch.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/oil-spill-near-oman-worries-over-supply-.html

Wholesale inflation dropped last month as gas prices reversed some of their Iran war spike and other costs also cooled, a sign that consumer inflation could grind lower in the months ahead.

The Labor Department’s producer price index – which captures inflation before it reaches consumers – rose 4.7 per cent in July from a year ago, down from a much larger 5.5-per-cent increase in June. On a monthly basis, wholesale prices were unchanged from June to July, after they ticked down 0.1 per cent the previous month.

The figures follow the government’s consumer price inflation report, released Wednesday, which also showed a modest cooling last month. Still, consumer prices have risen faster than wages for the past four months, underscoring the challenges many Americans have affording necessities such as rent and utilities. If prices continue to outpace wages, many consumers may be forced to dial back their spending in the coming months.

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core wholesale inflation dropped to 4.2 per cent in July compared with a year earlier, down from 4.7 per cent in June. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2 per cent, down from 0.4 per cent from May to June.

After falling in early July, gas prices then rose later that month and in early August, threatening to push inflation back up when August figures are reported next month.

Still, last month’s cooling gives Federal Reserve officials more leeway to avoid a rate hike when it meets next in September. Fed officials are debating whether they should raise their key interest rate to combat inflation, or keep it unchanged in hopes that inflation continues to cool on its own.

Wholesale prices can offer an early look at where consumer inflation might be headed. Economists also watch it because some of its components, notably health care and financial services, flow into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index. That price index will be released later this month.

Fed officials are considering whether to hike rates after leaving them unchanged so far this year. Last week, the government said employers actually cut jobs in July, a sign of economic weakness that could discourage the central bank from raising borrowing costs.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s top trade emissaries are set to meet on Thursday afternoon with Donald Trump’s trade chief for the second time this week as they scramble to reach a deal before the U.S. President’s latest threatened tariffs take effect in six days.

Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, and Janice Charette, Canada’s chief negotiator, will sit down with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer at the latter’s Winder Building office near the White House.

The two countries traded written negotiating positions at a previous hour-long meeting on Tuesday and Mr. LeBlanc and Ms. Charette have since been hunkered down with their officials at the Canadian embassy.

Campbell Clark: Peering over the cliff of lose-lose trade talks

As The Globe and Mail has previously reported, Ottawa is seeking relief from Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Canada. The U.S. is asking for a long list of trade concessions in exchange.

Canada wants reductions in Mr. Trump’s tariffs, imposed last year under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The U.S. has imposed tariffs of 50 per cent on steel and aluminum, 25 per cent on autos and between 10 to 25 per cent on various forest products.

Canada also wants Mr. Trump to stand down from his threat to levy 50 per cent tariffs on US$20-billion more Canadian exports, including electronic equipment, dairy and alcohol, under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

Ms. Charette told Mr. Greer last week that, if the new tariffs come into effect on Aug. 19, negotiations would halt and Canada would be forced to retaliate.

Ottawa weighs proposal on auto tariffs as it presses U.S. for reprieve, sources say

The negotiations have centred on the U.S. lowering, but not eliminating, its tariffs, with Canada agreeing to various Washington demands. These include ending retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos, getting provincial premiers to put American alcohol back on store shelves and halt Buy Canadian programs, and changing how licences are allocated under the supply-managed dairy system.

Talks had been sluggish until Mr. Trump threatened the new 338 tariffs last month and set a deadline for them to take effect. This lit a fire under the talks, with Mr. LeBlanc and Ms. Charette meeting Mr. Greer in Washington every week for the past three. Ms. Charette has been encamped semi-permanently in the U.S. capital with her team.

Mr. Greer has said he wants “interim” trade deals with both Canada and Mexico before moving onto a larger overhaul of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which would include renegotiating automotive content rules, among other thorny topics.

Canadian negotiators have privately presented the current talks as a first deal before moving onto future rounds of bargaining that would include various trade and defence topics.

As the clock ticks toward U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff deadline, Canada and the U.S. aren’t at a point where a tariff deal can be reached — and Canadian officials are not satisfied with the latest U.S. offer, according to two sources with knowledge of the trade talks.

According to sources on both sides of the border, the Americans offered a new proposal on Tuesday which would lower some of the sectoral tariffs but not to the degree that the Canadian side would like to see. CBC News is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Negotiators have been going back and forth in recent weeks in an effort to reach some sort of deal before Aug. 19, which is when Trump has promised a 50 per cent levy on hundreds of Canadian goods in addition to the sectoral tariffs already in place.

The Americans are seeking a deal that would see preferential access to Canadian critical minerals and cover security and energy, the sources said.

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has been in Washington to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer three times in as many weeks. CBC News previously reported that the two are aiming to present Trump with a path to a potential trade deal as early as Monday.

Sources told CBC News last week that the Canadian side has aggressively argued to the Americans that there would be no political appetite among Canadians to keep talks going if the Aug. 19 tariffs come into place.

Both sides have agreed to hold daily meetings at various levels up until that deadline, the sources said.

Neither LeBlanc nor Canada’s chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, answered reporters’ questions after they were seen leaving Greer’s office on Tuesday afternoon.

LeBlanc later posted to X saying that discussions are “ongoing” and he and Charette will “continue to engage at the negotiation table.”

LeBlanc’s office told CBC News he and Charette remain in Washington as of Wednesday night.

In addition to trying to dissuade Americans from levying new tariffs, LeBlanc and Charette are looking for relief on tariffs the U.S. has slapped on Canadian steel, aluminum, lumber and autos.

Canada is also hoping the ongoing trade talks between the two countries will result in a renewal of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) after the Trump administration last month declined to extend the deal past 2036.

When announcing the Aug. 19 tariffs, the U.S. raised a number of trade irritants, including Canada’s retaliation against U.S. trade policy with the removal of U.S. alcohol from provincial store shelves and alleged Canadian discrimination against U.S. motor vehicles and dairy.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre wrote to Carney on Sunday, calling on him to show some “backbone” as trade negotiations ramp up.

Poilievre said Canadians deserve a “good deal” that includes zero tariffs on softwood lumber, an end to sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum, a tariff-free auto pact and full exemption to Buy America rules on infrastructure projects at all levels of government.

“No more pursuing policies of a managed decline at home. No more caving,” Poilievre wrote.

Industry sources previously told CBC News that Canada is preparing to meet some U.S. demands — including ending the booze bans — in exchange for tariff relief.