Author: Consultant

Monday July 24

Japan and Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June,

Earnings include: NXP Semiconductors NV

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Tuesday July 25

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales for June.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city). The Street is forecasting an increase of 0.7 per cent from April but down 2.3 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for May. Consensus is a rise of 0.6 per cent from May and up 2.4 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June.

Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins

Earnings include: Alphabet Inc.; Canadian National Railway Co.; Danaher Corp.; General Electric Co.; General Motors Co.; Microsoft Corp.; Texas Instruments Inc.; Verizon Communications Inc.; Visa Inc.; 3M Co.

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Wednesday July 26

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for June. The Street expects an annualized rate decline of 5.4 per cent.

(1:30 p.m. ET) Release of the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations for the July 12 decision

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement with chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to follow.

Earnings include: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.; Alamos Gold Inc.; Allied Properties REIT; AT&T Inc.; Boeing Co.; Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.; Celestica Inc.; CGI Inc.; Coca-Cola Co.; Crescent Point Energy Corp.; GFL Environmental Holdings Inc.; Loblaw Companies Ltd.; Meta Platforms Inc.; Methanex Corp.; Qualcomm Inc.; Rogers Communications Inc.; ServiceNow Inc.; Toromont Industries Ltd.; Union Pacific Corp.; West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.; Whitecap Resources Inc.

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Thursday July 27

Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (through Friday) and release of its outlook report

ECB monetary policy meeting

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours for May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of July 22. Estimate is 236,000, up 8,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP deflator for Q2. Consensus is annualized rate rises of 1.7 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable orders for June. Consensus is a rise of 0.9 per cent from May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core orders for June. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.2 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for June. Consensus is a decline of 0.5 per cent.

Earnings include: Amazon.com Inc.; Atco Ltd.; Baytex Energy Corp.; Canadian Utilities Ltd.; Canfor Corp.; Cenovus Energy Inc.; Comcast Corp.; Eldorado Gold Corp.; FirstService Corp.; Ford Motor Co.; Intel Corp.; Mastercard Inc.; McDonald’s Corp.; MEG Energy Corp.; Norfolk Southern Corp.; Ovintiv Inc.; Secure Energy Services Inc.; Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.; Teck Resources Ltd.; T-Mobile US Inc.; TMX Group Ltd.; Winpak Ltd.

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Friday July 28

Euro zone consumer and economic confidence

Germany CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for May. Consensus is for growth of 0.3 per cent from April.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for June. The Street expects month-over-month increases of 0.4 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Core PCE Price Index for June. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 per cent from May and up 4.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. employment cost index for Q2. The Street is projecting a rise of 1.1 per cent from Q1 and 4.6 per cent year-over-year.

Also: Ottawa’s budget balance for May.

Earnings include: AltaGas Ltd.; ARC Resources Ltd.; Chevron Corp.; Exxon Mobil Corp.; George Weston Ltd.; Imperial Oil Ltd.; Procter & Gamble Co.; TC Energy Corp.

Oil prices rose on Friday, buoyed by evidence of tightening supplies and economic stimulus in slow-recovering China.

Brent futures were up $1.02 at $80.66 a barrel by 1134 GMT, while U.S.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1 to $76.65 a barrel.

“The supply deficit that had been looming in the second half of the year is now backed up by hard figures,” Commerzbank analysts said, citing recent data indicating China and India’s imports of crude oil from Russia had hit an all-time high in June.

However, buying interest from India is likely to weaken, given narrowing discounts and payment problems. Meanwhile, in early July Russia joined Saudi Arabia in cutting output for August.

“Demand from China and India could therefore shift more towards other suppliers, which would push up oil prices,” the analysts said.

In the U.S., crude inventories have also fallen, supported by a jump in crude exports as well as higher refinery utilization, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

“That tightness in supply is already showing up in inventories,” analysts from ANZ Bank said.

Meanwhile, investors welcomed stimulus measures designed to reinvigorate China’s sluggish economy.

Latest figures from the world’s second-biggest oil consumer suggest the rate of gross domestic product growth in the second quarter augurs a miss of the government’s 5% annual growth target.

On Friday, Chinese authorities unveiled plans to help boost sales of automobiles and electronics.

“The announcement remains short on detail but notions of China buying more cars gives rise in hope for oil investor bulls,” PVM analyst John Evans said.

FinancialNewsMedia – Wed Jul 12, 7:50AM CDT Partnership Content

Palm Beach, FL – July 12, 2023 – FinancialNewsMedia.com News Commentary – Potash fertilizers help in the overall improvement of plant quality and also increases its shelf life. Potassium is a vital soil element and is one of the key members of the NPK fertilizer family. Natural potassium does not exist in the environment since it responds aggressively to water. Fertilizer potassium is at times called “potash”, a term that originates from an early making procedure where potassium was filtered from ashes of woods and concentrated by dissipating the leachate in huge iron pots. A report from Verified Market Research projected that the Potash Fertilizers Market size is projected to reach USD 41.11 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.66% from 2023 to 2030.  The report said: “In the production of food, potassium is eliminated from the soil in the crops that are harvested and should be replaced keeping in mind the end goal to keep up the crop growth in the future. It also helps to enhance crop yield, improvise taste, and further helps plants to resist diseases. Potash fertilizers are applied to various crop types such as cereals & grains, oilseeds & pulses, and fruits & vegetables. In terms of form, potash fertilizers are present in liquid & solid forms.” Active companies in the markets this week include Millennial Potash Corp. (OTC-BB:MLPNF) (TSXV:MLP.VN), The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS), Gensource Potash Corporation (OTCPK:AGCCF) (TSXV:GSP.VN), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE:IPI), Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) (TSX:NTR.TO).

Verified Market Research continued: “A greater number of crops such as plantation crops and horticulture crops are fertilized utilizing potash fertilizers, and hence, this factor act as a driver for the development of the market. The other determinant factor boosting the Potash Fertilizers Market is the rise in nourishment utilization together with the expanded population and the have to keep up a sound way of life. Rising soil deficiency, ease of utilization, and giving uniform application, coupled with an increasing demand for more production of food crops, are anticipated to drive the growth of the potassium fertilizers market. The potash fertilizer required depends on the type of crops developed because potassium take-up changes between crops and different soils. As accuracy horticulture is known to play down supplement misfortunes by enabling the variable-rate fertilizer application, the demand for this fluid potassium, fertilizers are expected to rise within the forthcoming a long time.  The significant growth trend of the global population indicates an increasing demand for food, and in turn, would drive the demand for potash for the production of fertilizers.”

Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) (TSX:NTR.TO) recently announced plans to release second quarter earnings results on Wednesday, August 2, 2023, after market close. Nutrien will host a conference call the following day, Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. EDT to discuss and answer investor questions on second quarter results and the outlook.

Investors can access the call by dialing 1-888-886-7786 or 1-416-764-8658.

A webcast of the conference call can be accessed by visiting Nutrien’s ebsite, https://www.nutrien.com/investors/events.  A recording of the conference call will be available after the completion of the call by dialing 1-877-674-7070 and inputting the conference identification number 043533#. The recording will be available through November 1, 2023.w

• Just days after the Canadian government negotiated a deal to end the West Coast ports strike, a key caucus of ILWU Canada union members voted down the deal on Tuesday night sending rank-and-file members back to picket lines.
• But Canada’s independent Industrial Relations Board deemed the strike illegal on Wednesday and union workers were back on the docks.
• $6.5 billion in trade is anchored offshore of Canada and the restart of the strike will add to supply chain congestion that already built up during the initial strike’s 13-day period.
• “Things are once again thrown into turmoil,” said a supply chain manager.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/19/canadian-port-workers-are-back-on-strike-after-rejecting-labor-deal.html

Published: 7/19/2023 8:53 AM ET

Crude oil prices extended gains on Wednesday amidst hopes of a less hawkish monetary policy stance by central banks. Evidence of a firmly downward inflation trajectory revealed in the latest updates from the Euro Area and the U.K renewed hopes of a softer monetary policy stance by central banks, lifting Brent Crude futures above the $80 level.

The rally is despite the weaker-than-expected inventory build in the U.S. Data released on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute had showed crude oil inventories decline by 0.80 million barrels during the week ended July 14, lower than the decline of 2.25 million barrels that markets were expecting. Crude oil inventories had increased by more than 3 million barrels in the previous week.

Brent Oil Futures for September settlement which had finished Tuesday’s trading at $79.63 traded between $78.19 and $80.38. It is currently at $80.17, having gained 0.68 percent from the previous close.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures for September settlement which had a closing price of $75.66 on Tuesday ranged between a high of $76.23 and a low of $75.33. The current price of $76.05 represents a gain of 0.52 percent from the previous close.

Both the crude oil benchmarks added to Tuesday’s gains. Brent Futures recorded larger gains, offsetting in part the comparatively lower gains in Tuesday’s rally.

A third of Canadians have changed or cancelled their vacation plans due to inflation, according to a new survey by Leger.

Of those who have changed their vacation plans, 46 per cent are also cutting back on dining out, found the July survey of 1,526 Canadians.

Inflation slowed to 2.8 per cent in June, but the price of groceries continued to climb, with prices rising 9.1 per cent last month, Statistics Canada said. Lower inflation was led by a decline in gasoline prices compared with last year, the agency reported.

In addition to concerns about inflation, Canadians are also feeling the sting of flight delays and cancellations when it comes to their vacation plans.

Delays, cancellations and lost luggage were the hallmarks of air travel as the industry ramped up to meet demand amid loosening COVID-19 restrictions.

Almost half of Canadians surveyed by Leger said they think airlines aren’t reliable when it comes to their departures and arrivals.

Six in 10 Canadians who have taken at least one flight in the past year said they have experienced flight delays, while two in 10 experienced cancellations. Almost two in 10 experienced baggage delays, while another 10 per cent experienced lost baggage.

Because of these disruptions, more than half of Canadians said they are looking to book only direct flights.

Thirty-five per cent of Canadians said they’re planning to go on vacation this summer, the Leger poll found.

Among those who said they have changed their vacation plans due to inflation, 43 per cent said they are opting for less expensive accommodation options, while 41 per cent are cutting back on activities and attractions and 39 per cent are taking a shorter trip.

In May, Greater Toronto Airports Authority president and CEO Deborah Flint said Pearson Airport had hired 10,000 new employees since the previous summer to handle rising demand, and modernized some of its systems.

Those new hires have helped increase baggage system reliability, cut security wait times and decreased holds on board aircraft, Flint announced Tuesday.

However, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing this summer. Over the Canada Day long weekend, Air Canada delayed or cancelled almost 2,000 flights, with passengers posting photos online of long lines and busy terminals that hearkened back to last year’s chaos.

The airline at the time said it may take longer to recover from an issue along the system when a network is running at full tilt, and said thunderstorms in the Montreal area and the U.S. contributed to the disruptions.

U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday, partly boosted by a round of solid bank earnings which helped put the Dow on track for its longest streak of daily gains in more than two years. The TSX also rose, propelled primarily by the energy and resource sectors, closing at a two-month high as a slowdown in Canadian inflation to less than 3% further bolstered investor sentiment.

Morgan Stanley shares jumped 6.45%, their biggest one-day percentage climb since Nov. 9, 2020 after topping expectations as growth in the bank’s wealth management business offset lower trading revenue.

Bank of America gained 4.42% after its profit beat expectations by earning more from customers’ loan payments, while investment banking and trading fared better than expected.

Shares of other banks also rose on Tuesday, with Bank of New York Mellon up 4.11%, and PNC Financial up 2.51%, after they reported quarterly results.

“They are surprising. This morning all the banks reported, all beat earnings expectations and all except PNC beat revenue expectations,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

“I always hate to extrapolate the big bank earnings, which are always the first ones, to the rest of the market. We have a lot more coming here but earnings estimates have been brought down and banks are able to surprise.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 366.58 points, or 1.06%, to 34,951.93, the S&P 500 gained 32.19 points, or 0.71%, at 4,554.98 and the Nasdaq Composite added 108.69 points, or 0.76%, at 14,353.64.

The Dow registered its seventh-straight session of gains, its longest streak since March 2021, and closed at its highest level since April 2022.

Some of the largest U.S. banks such as JP Morgan last week cited a profit boost from higher rates and indicated the economy remained resilient.

The S&P 500 banks index ended 1.90% firmer at 317.02, its highest closing level since March 8, when the start of a mini-bank crisis created a sharp sell-off in the sector. The KBW regional banking index also climbed 4.10% to 96.25 , its highest close since March 21.

Charles Schwab jumped 12.57%, the best performer on the S&P 500, after the brokerage posted a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit.

Technology, up 1.26%, was the best performing sector, as Microsoft shares gained 3.98 to a record close of $359.49 after announcing it would charge more to access new artificial intelligence features in its Office software.

Equities have rallied recently, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing to 15-month highs on data showing economic resilience, cooling inflation and a solid labor market.

Data released early on Tuesday showed retail sales rose less than expected in June on a decline in building materials and service station receipts, although consumers boosted or maintained their spending levels. In addition, production at domestic factories unexpectedly fell during the month, but rebounded in the second quarter as motor vehicle output accelerated.

UnitedHealth also bolstered the Dow as it climbed 3.29%, providing about 105 points to the upside, after Bernstein upgraded the health insurer to an “outperform” rating.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 149.78 points, or 0.7%, at 20,376.57, its highest closing level since May 15.

Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped more than expected to a 27-month low of 2.8% in June, moving below the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% control range for the first time since March 2021, helped by lower energy prices.

Energy rose 2.7% as oil settled 2.2% higher at $75.75 a barrel, while the materials group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, added 1.9%. Financials advanced 0.8%.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.54 billion shares, compared with the 10.58 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.76-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.62-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 53 new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 157 new highs and 75 new lows.

Reuters, Globe staff

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in June posted its largest month-over-month increase in a decade powered by work beginning on new multi-unit projects.

The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in Canada totalled 281,373 units in June, up from 200,018 in May.

The increase came as the annual pace of urban starts increased 46 per cent to 262,815 units in June. The rate of multi-unit urban starts rose 59 per cent to 219,914, while the rate of starts for single-detached urban homes increased three per cent to 42,901.

The annual rate of housing starts in Vancouver in June was up 71 per cent from May, while Toronto doubled the pace set in the previous month.

CMHC estimated the annual pace of rural starts at 18,558 units for June.

The six-month moving average of the annual pace of housing starts was 234,974 units in June, up from 229,520 units in May.

Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped more than expected to a 27-month low of 2.8 per cent in June, data showed on Tuesday, but excluding energy prices inflation was still barely inching lower after 10 interest rate hikes in less than 18 months.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation to drop to 3.0 per cent from 3.4 per cent in May. Month-over-month, the consumer price index was up 0.1 per cent, Statistics Canada said, which was also lower than the 0.3 per cent forecast.

June’s reading, which benefited from a comparison to the four-decade high inflation a year earlier, means the annual rate was within the Bank of Canada’s 1 per cent to 3 per cent control range for the first time since March 2021. The bank targets 2 per cent inflation.

“Inflation is definitely moving in the right direction, but we’re seeing stickier and more persistent core measures,” said Michael Greenberg, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions.

Excluding food and energy, prices rose 3.5 per cent compared with a 4.0 per cent rise in May. Grocery prices rose 9.1 per cent year-over-year in June, a tick higher than the increase recorded in May. Prices of food from restaurants slowed slightly in June from May.

The average of two of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core measures of underlying inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, came in at 3.8 per cent compared with 3.9 per cent in May.

The Bank of Canada last week raised rates to a 22-year high of 5.0 per cent and said it could hike them further if fresh data shows inflation is stalling above its target.

The central bank, citing excess demand, said last week that it expects inflation to remain around 3 per cent over the next year before dropping to the bank’s 2 per cent target by mid-2025, six months later than previously anticipated.

“We’re still not at 2 per cent,” said Jules Boudreau, senior economist at Mackenzie Investments. “So there’s still some work to be done. But policy is probably restrictive enough at the moment to do that.”

The price of gasoline, which led the slowdown, fell 21.6 per cent compared with June 2022 when China, the largest importer of crude oil, eased some COVID-19 public health restrictions that contributed to higher global demand.