Author: Consultant

  • TSX Ends Flat After Lackluster Session

    Published: 5/12/2023 5:24 PM ET

    After a slightly positive start, the Canadian market slipped into negative territory around mid morning, and despite losing further ground, recovered to end with a small gain on Friday.

    The mood was cautious amid concerns about slowing growth in the U.S. and China.

    The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index ended with a gain of 2.01 points or 0.01% at 20,419.62. The index, which climbed to 20,492.07 in early trades, touched a low of 20,346.90 around mid afternoon. The index shed about 0.6% in the week.

    Technology stocks drifted lower, while shares from utilities, industrials, healthcare and materials sectors posted gains. Energy, financials and consumer sector stocks ended on a mixed note.

    Shawcor Ltd. (SCL.TO) shares soared nearly 11%. The company reported net income of $25.23 million for the first quarter of 2023, compared with net loss of $6.9 million in the year-ago quarter.

    Park Lawn Corporation (PLC.TO) climbed 8.8% after reporting net earnings of $4.58 million for the first quarter of 2023.

    Stelco Corporation (STLC.TO), Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation (BIPC.TO), Boyd Group (BYD.TO), Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV.TO), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO), TFI International (TFII.TO) and Teck Resources (TECK.A.TO) gained 1.3 to 3.3%.

    Air Canada (AC.TO) reported net income of $4 million for the first quarter of 2023, as against net loss of $974 million in the year-ago quarter. The stock gained about 0.5%.

    CI Financial Corp (CIX.TO) plunged more than 17%. The company has agreed to sell a 20% minority investment in its US wealth management business to a group of institutional investors.

    Nuvei Corporation (NVEI.TO), Maple Leaf Foods (MFI.TO), Ag Growth International (AFN.TO), Nutrien (NTR.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO) and Shopify Inc (SHOP.TO) ended lower by 2 to 4%.

    Onex Corporation (ONEX.TO) ended 2.7% down. Onex reported net loss of $2.87 million for the quarter ended March 2023, compared with net income of $1.89 million in the year-ago quarter.

  • George Weston Raises Divided 8% On Strong Q1 Earnings

    May 10, 8:07AM CDT

    Holding company George Weston Ltd. (WN) has raised its quarterly dividend 8% after reporting strong first-quarter earnings.

    George Weston has controlling stakes in the Choice Properties real estate investment trust and Loblaw Companies, Canada’s biggest supermarket chain. It also owns the grocery brands President’s Choice, No Name and Joe Fresh.

    The company announced that it will increase its quarterly dividend payment to stockholders to 71.3 cents per share from 66 cents per share previously.

    The increased payment comes after George Weston reported a Q1 profit of $426 million or $3.01 per share, which was up from $363 million or $2.45 per share a year earlier.

    Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 totalled $13.13 billion, up 6% from $12.41 billion in the year earlier quarter.George Weston’s stock has gained 13% in the last 12 months to trade at $174.95 per sha

  • Air Canada posts second profitable quarter in a row as travellers return to the skies

    Air Canada AC-T +0.10%increaseposted its second consecutive profitable quarter on Friday, signalling Canada’s largest airline is slowly leaving behind the financial ruin of the pandemic as travellers return to the skies.

    Air Canada’s profit in the first three months of 2023 reached $4-million, compared to a loss of $974-million in the same period of 2022. Operating revenue almost doubled to $4.9-billion from the year-ago quarter due to higher demand for air travel.

    When compared with the pre-pandemic quarter of 2019, sales are up by 10 per cent, Air Canada said in the earnings report, released before markets opened on Friday morning.

    “Our first-quarter financial results exceeded both internal and external expectations and we expect demand to persist, supported by strong advance bookings for the remainder of the year,” Michael Rousseau, Air Canada’s chief executive officer, said in a statement accompanying the earnings release.

    On a diluted per-share basis, Air Canada lost 3 cents a share, compared with $2.72 a share in the year-earlier quarter. Cash flow for the first quarter rose by $1-billion to $1.4-billion, compared with a the same quarter of 2022.

    Walter Spracklin, a stock analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, said in a note to clients the results are better than he expected. He pointed to Air Canada’s strong seat bookings in the short term, but said it will be important to watch how demand holds up amid a weakening global economy and competition from discount airlines.

    “Demand and pricing is expected to weaken post-summer, [but] we are mindful of a potential structural shift in the nature of airline demand that may see travel hold up despite a weakening economy,” Mr. Spracklin wrote.

    Fadi Chamoun, an analyst at BMO Financial Group, said Air Canada’s first-quarter results exceeded expectations due in part to strong ticket sales and fuller planes.

    For the first quarter of 2023, Air Canada’s passenger revenues more than doubled, and more than half the increase came from international markets. Revenue per available seat mile, an industry measure of efficiency, rose by 39 per cent, from the year-ago quarter. Costs per available seat mile rose by 2.5 per cent.

    The company’s shares are up by 10 per cent this year on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

    Montreal-based Air Canada is the country’s largest airline, controlling about half of the domestic market, according to Cirium. Calgary’s WestJet has about 31 per cent.

    Air Canada last week raised its profit outlook for 2023 amid strong demand and lower fuel prices. Full-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will be between $3.5-billion and $4-billion, up from the previous target of $2.5-billion and $3-billion.

    The World Health Organization this week declared an end to the COVID-19 global health emergency, more than three years after it took hold. The pandemic killed millions of people, closed borders and sent the airline industry into a financial crisis.

    Air Canada’s losses for the three years of the pandemic total $9.9-billion. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Air Canada made a profit of $168-million, its first profitable period since the onset of the pandemic.

  • Canadian Tire results show consumer shift from discretionary purchases

    Consumers feeling the sting of inflation are cutting back on non-essential purchases, as they face higher interest rates on their mortgages and steep prices for basic necessities such as groceries.

    What is emerging in the retail landscape is in many ways a reversal of the trends seen during the COVID-19 pandemic – when supply chains struggled to keep up with surging demand for big-ticket items such as appliances and furniture, as well as for products such as bicycles and outdoor gear to keep people entertained when travel was restricted.

    Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. CTC-A-T -2.47%decrease was just the latest retailer to point to these trends on Thursday, reporting that demand for discretionary products has weakened, and that shoppers have begun to seek out lower-priced essential products.

    The company’s credit card data revealed that overall consumer spending has slowed for the first time since 2020, chief executive officer Greg Hicks told analysts on a conference call to discuss first-quarter financial results. And data from Canadian Tire’s loyalty program showed spending declining at stores across all income groups.

    “The current high inflation rates have led customers to prioritize essential products over higher-ticket discretionary ones,” Mr. Hicks said on the call, adding that shoppers are “mindful” of their spending as they renew mortgages at higher interest rates, and also return to spending money in areas that declined during the pandemic, such as travel and restaurant dining.

    Other companies have noted similar trends. Last month, Whirlpool Corp. WHR-N -0.82%decreasereported a revenue decline as shifting consumer sentiment led to fewer big-ticket appliance purchases.

    And United Parcel Service Inc. UPS-N -1.73%decrease reported that it saw buying behaviours change, with discretionary purchases softening as overall U.S. retail sales contracted in March. Food is making up a larger percentage of household budgets and American consumers are directing their disposable income “away from goods to services,” UPS chief executive Carol Tomé told analysts on a call in April to discuss the company’s earnings.

    Across the shipping industry, freight rates have fallen and demand for shipping hard goods has dropped sharply in recent months, as inventories climb. Canadian Tire recently exited a dedicated ocean freight contract at a one-time $13.5-million cost, as the company expects to lock in more favourable ocean freight costs in the near future.

    Inventory levels in spring and summer products are elevated across the retail industry, TJ Flood, president of Canadian Tire Retail, told analysts on Thursday’s call. Mr. Flood said that promotional intensity is likely to heat up, particularly in discretionary categories.

    While purchases of essential items such as pet food and automotive products remained relatively strong in the first quarter, Canadian Tire reported on Thursday that its earnings were affected by changing consumer behaviours, as well as an unusually warm winter and a slow start to spring that contributed to weakened demand for seasonal products.

    Canadian Tire to rebrand gas stations in new Petro-Canada partnership

    Canadian Tire commits half its sponsorship dollars to women’s professional sports

    Canadian Tire reported its overall revenue declined by 3.4 per cent in the 13 weeks ended April 1, to $3.7-billion.

    Comparable sales – an important metric that tracks sales growth not tied to new store openings – fell by 4.8 per cent at Canadian Tire stores. Comparable sales at the company’s Mark’s chain grew by 4.8 per cent, and were up by 3.7 per cent at Sport Chek on higher sales of athletic and casual clothing. Revenue for the Helly Hansen brand grew by 22.9 per cent compared with the prior year.

    Revenue in Canadian Tire’s financial services segment grew by 11.5 per cent to $38.1-million.

    As weather has turned more favourable following the end of the first quarter, business has improved, with sales up 3 per cent at the end of April, Mr. Flood said.

    Canadian Tire reported its net income fell to 42.8-million, or 14 cents a share, in the first quarter, compared with $217.6-million, or $3.05 a share, in the same period last year. The company reported that roughly 87 cents of the hit to its earnings was related to costs from the fire that broke out on March 15 at one of its largest distribution centres in Brampton, Ont. Normalized earnings excluding those costs amounted to $1 per diluted share, which fell short of analysts’ expectations.

    The company recorded $67.7-million in costs related to the fire in the quarter – including for cleanup and building repairs – which have not yet been offset by the payout of insurance claims. The company continues to incur costs and expects to recognize insurance recoveries in future quarters.

    The retailer lost millions of dollars worth of inventory in the fire, and experienced a roughly $20-million decrease in income because of delayed shipments and disruptions to its supply chain. On Thursday, executives said the facility should return to full operations in the second half of the year. In the meantime, Canadian Tire has been forced to shift important products to other distribution centres and to set up temporary facilities to manage shipments to stores.

  • China’s biggest chipmaker posts first quarterly revenue fall in 3 years as semiconductor woes persist

    • China’s biggest semiconductor manufacturing firm SMIC on Friday posted its first decline in quarterly revenue in more than three years.
    • SMIC Is China’s most important chipmaking company.
    • It’s seen as a key hope to Beijing’s ambitions to boost its domestic semiconductor industry and catch up with rivals like Taiwan’s TSMC.
    • SMIC has been hit with U.S. sanctions that have cut the company off from key chipmaking tools to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors.

    China’s biggest chipmaker SMIC posts first revenue fall in 3 years (cnbc.com)

  • Nutrien May Slow Potash Ramp-Up Plans As Earnings, Sales Down

     Thu May 11, 11:56AM CDT

    CALGARY — The CEO of Canadian fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd. said Thursday the company may consider slowing down its previously announced plan to ramp up potash production, in light of falling prices and lower sales volumes.

    The comments come as the Saskatoon-based company — the world’s largest fertilizer producer — lowered its earnings guidance for the year to between $6.4 billion and $8.0 billion, down from a previously announced range of $8.4 billion to $10 billion.

    The company’s net earnings for the third quarter were US$576 million, down 58 per cent from US$1.4 billion a year earlier, and its sales for the quarter ended March 31 were US$6.1 billion, down 20 per cent from US$7.7 billion a year earlier.

    “Yes, we would consider slowing down. We’re really, as we talked about earlier this year, watching the market,” CEO Ken Seitz told analysts on a conference call to discuss the company’s disappointing first-quarter financial results.

    “If we see that the market’s not there, then we’ll pace our capital accordingly.”

    It has been a volatile period for Nutrien, which achieved record earnings in 2021 and then saw fertilizer prices spike in March of 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war shook up global agricultural markets and reduced supplies of fertilizer from Eastern Europe.

    To meet increased global demand, Nutrien announced in June of last year a plan to ramp up potash production by 40 per cent compared with 2020 production levels — an increase of more than five million tonnes.

    The company said it would achieve this by investing in expansions at its existing Saskatchewan mines, including the hiring of approximately 350 people.

    But by the second half of 2022, Nutrien had suffered what it called a “historic” decline in the pace of its potash shipments. In North America and Brazil in particular, farmers appeared to be postponing fertilizer purchases in the face of high prices.

    As a result, in February of this year, the company announced it would slightly delay its expansion plans, targeting 2026 instead of 2025 to reach its potash production target of 18 million tonnes.

    While Seitz said Thursday the company is open to slowing its plans further, he said he remains bullish on the longer-term outlook for fertilizer. He said Nutrien anticipates increased global potash demand in the second half of the year as a result of lower-than-expected inventories and improved affordability for farmers compared with 2022.

    He added that historically, periods of lower-than-normal demand have been followed by years of strong demand growth — and he expects that to happen again.

    “The reality is again that we are in a market that’s growing,” Seitz said.

    “We believe that’s going to carry on for the absolute foreseeable future — a two and a half to three per cent annual growth rate. New supply’s going to be required to meet that growing demand.”

    Nutrien’s share price tumbled Thursday on the company’s first-quarter results, trading down almost five per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of mid-day.

    The company’s diluted net earnings per share for the quarter were US$1.14, down 54 per cent from US$2.49 a year earlier.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 11, 2023.

  • Apple versus the world: The iPhone maker is bigger than almost any stock market in the world

    Dimensional’s Matrix Book is an annual review of global returns that highlight the power of compound investing. It’s a fascinating document: you can look up the compounded growth rate of the S&P 500 for every year going back to 1926. 

    Buried on page 74 is a chapter on “World Equity Market Capitalization,” listing the market capitalization of most of the world, country by country. No surprise, the U.S. is the global leader in stock market value. The $40 trillion in stock market wealth in the U.S. is almost 60% of the value of all the equities in the world. 

    Global market capitalization, by country

    (in trillions, with % of global share)

    • U.S.                         $40 trillion  (59%)
    • Japan                     $4.1t (6%)
    • United Kingdom   $2.6t (4%)
    • China                     $2.5t (4%)
    • Canada                  $2.1t (3%)
    • France                    $1.8t (3%)
    • Switzerland           $1.6t (2%)
    • India                       $1.4t (2%)
    • Australia                $1.4t (2%)
    • Germany                $1.3t (2%)

    Source:  Dimensional Funds, 2023 Matrix Book

    Here’s where it gets fun. My friend Ben Carlson pointed out that Apple’s current market capitalization of about $2.7 trillion this week exceeds the entire market capitalization of the United Kingdom, the third biggest stock market in the world. 

    Apple vs. the world

    (market capitalization)

    • Apple:                    $2.7 trillion
    • UK :                        $2.6t  (595 companies)
    • France:                  $1.8t  (235 companies)
    • India:                     $1.4t  (1,242 companies)
    • Germany:              $1.3t  (255 companies)

    Source:  Dimensional Funds, 2023 Matrix Book 

    Not only is Apple bigger than all 595 companies that list in the United Kingdom, it’s bigger than all the companies in France (235 companies), and India (1,242 companies). 

    Apple is twice the size of Germany’s entire stock market, with 255 companies. 

    In part, this reflects the extreme values that are being given to companies that are: 1) successful, and 2) growth-oriented.  

    That orientation toward tech and growth can influence the character of a country’s market. 

    Germany, for example, is by far the largest country in Europe by GDP, yet its stock market is smaller than the U.K, France and Italy.  In part this reflects the fact that there are fewer companies listed than the U.K., but also because Germany has more value-oriented companies.  As a result, its market multiple — the price investors pay for a dollar or a euro’s worth of profit — is considerably lower than that of the U.S. 

    Regardless: Apple is bigger than the entire U.K. stock market? Twice as big as all of Germany? That is amazing. 

  • Inflation rate eases to 4.9% in April, less than expectations

    • The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month, pushed higher by rising shelter, used vehicle and gas prices. The increase was in line with Wall Street expectations.
    • On an annual basis, the inflation rate was 4.9%, slightly less than the estimate and providing some hope that the trend is lower.
    • For workers, real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1% for the month but were still down 0.5% from a year ago.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/cpi-inflation-april-2023.html

  • China’s exports rose 8.5%, continuing its growth streak at a slower pace

    • China’s exports grew 8.5% in April in U.S. dollar terms, marking a second-straight month of growth.
    • Economists polled by Reuters estimated exports would rise 8% in April, while imports were forecast to remain unchanged.
    • China’s inflation is expected to slow down to a 0.3% rise year-on-year in prices when the data is released on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/09/china-exports-imports-april-trade-data.html