Author: Consultant

 Nutrien CEO Ken Seitz says Canada is poised to play a big role in global food production as climate change makes farming more difficult and the world’s food supply chain is rendered fragile by political and economic uncertainty.

Seitz made the remarks in Toronto at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Canada.

He says climate change is redrawing the map of global food production and Canada has an opportunity to be a key player in addressing food insecurity.

Nutrien is the world’s third-largest producer of nitrogen, and the largest producer of potash, two of the three main plant nutrients used in commercial fertilizer.

The Saskatoon-based potash and fertilizer company has six potash mines in Saskatchewan with more than 20 million tonnes of capacity, as well as two large phosphate mines in the U.S.

In 2021, Nutrien began piloting a new project aimed at helping farmers reduce greenhouse gas emissions, trap and store carbon and measure improvements, as well as facilitating the purchase and sale of carbon credits.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 5, 2023.

A team of South Korean spies and American private investigators quietly gathered at the South Korean intelligence service in January, just days after North Korea fired three ballistic missiles into the sea.

For months, they’d been tracking $100 million stolen from a California cryptocurrency firm named Harmony, waiting for North Korean hackers to move the stolen crypto into accounts that could eventually be converted to dollars or Chinese yuan, hard currency that could fund the country’s illegal missile program.

When the moment came, the spies and sleuths — working out of a government office in a city, Pangyo, known as South Korea’s Silicon Valley — would have only a few minutes to help seize the money before it could be laundered to safety through a series of accounts and rendered untouchable.

Finally, in late January, the hackers moved a fraction of their loot to a cryptocurrency account pegged to the dollar, temporarily relinquishing control of it. The spies and investigators pounced, flagging the transaction to US law enforcement officials standing by to freeze the money.

The team in Pangyo helped seize a little more than $1 million that day. Though analysts tell CNN that most of the stolen $100 million remains out of reach in cryptocurrency and other assets controlled by North Korea, it was the type of seizure that the US and its allies will need to prevent big paydays for Pyongyang.

The sting operation, described to CNN by private investigators at Chainalysis, a New York-based blockchain-tracking firm, and confirmed by the South Korean National Intelligence Service, offers a rare window into the murky world of cryptocurrency espionage — and the burgeoning effort to shut down what has become a multibillion-dollar business for North Korea’s authoritarian regime.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/north-korean-crypto-hackers-crackdown/index.html

As US-­China rivalry and Chinese assertiveness heighten tensions in the Asia­-Pacific, countries are engaging in an arms race to secure their borders. But ramping up defence spending can increase the risk of conflicts.

As China flexes its muscles, East Asian neighbours ramp up defences

In March, Japan opened a new army camp on the tropical resort island of Ishigaki – about 330km east of Taiwan – staffed with 570 soldiers and stocked with an arsenal of anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles.

The new garrison, which defence officials describe as the “crucial final component of Japan’s front-line security”, follows other Ground Self-Defence Force camps that have opened since 2016 on the south-western Japan islands of Yonaguni, Miyako and Amami Oshima.

This is on top of the longstanding – and outsized – military presence of security ally United States on Okinawa, which hosts 70 per cent of all US bases in Japan and nearly 30,000 active-duty military personnel.

READ MORE HERE

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South-east Asia plays catch-up with China’s military might

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr gave a thumbs-up for the cameras from the backseat of an FA-50 fighter jet just before it took off from Clark Air Base in Pampanga, south of the capital Manila, on March 7.

The aircraft carrying the commander-in-chief flew west over a military training area near Zambales, a coastal province facing the South China Sea. Mr Marcos would return to base minutes later, impressed by the pilot’s skills and even more convinced that modernising the military is key to counter Beijing’s rising aggression in the disputed waters.

“The modernisation of the Air Force, of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, is certainly a response to the growing complication of the situation that we are facing in the region,” Mr Marcos would later say in another speech before the military at the same air base on March 31.

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Rising risk of arms races in Asia spiralling into major conflict

Arms races can sometimes be stabilising. The United States and the Soviet Union built massive nuclear arsenals during the Cold War. Yet, the risk of mutual annihilation these created ultimately stopped Moscow and Washington from crossing the Rubicon – notwithstanding some very close calls along the way, such as the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

But arms races more often precede major conflict. The classic example here is the Anglo-German contest for naval supremacy at the start of the 20th century, which helped spark World War I.

Arms racing, by definition, involves intense bilateral military build-ups that are both rapid and reciprocal. The numerous such contests currently unfolding across Asia appear to be of the historically more combustible kind.

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In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggested that the U.S. government and climate conscious corporations may have to seize citizen’s private property to enact climate initiatives while there still time to stave off climate disasters.

Dimon declared Tuesday that “governments, businesses and non-governmental organizations” may need to invoke “eminent domain” in order to get the “adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives.”

“Eminent domain” is a legal term that describes the government using its power to expropriate private property for public use, provided the government provides private owners proper compensation.

JPMorgan CEO suggests government seize private property to quicken climate initiatives | Fox News

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but annual revisions to the data showed applications were higher this year than initially thought, further evidence that the labour market was slowing.

With Thursday’s weekly jobless claims report, the Labor Department updated the methodology used to seasonally adjust the initial claims and the so-called continued claims data. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment insurance claims series used multiplicative factors to seasonally adjust the data.

Beginning in March 2020 that was changed to additive factors, before switching back to multiplicative models as the large effects of the pandemic on the claims series lessened.

“For consistency, the published seasonal factors are presented as multiplicative with additive factors converted to implicit multiplicative factors and will not be subject to revision,” the department said in a statement. “Now that the pandemic impacts on the UI claims series are clearer, modifications have been made to the outlier sets in the seasonal adjustment models for both of the claims series.”

It said this approach had resulted in larger-than-usual revisions during many weeks over the last five years.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended April 1. Data for the prior week was revised to show 48,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 claims for the latest week. The government revised the claims data from 2018 through 2022.

It introduced new seasonal factors for 2023 and revised factors for 2018 through 2022. But it added that, “the most volatile economic period of the pandemic, including the period running from March 2020 to June 2021, was not revised and will continue to be based on additive adjustments.”

Economists had viewed pandemic-related distortions to seasonal factors as one of several factors keeping claims low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry and some sectors particularly sensitive to interest rates. Employers have generally been reluctant to send workers home after struggling to find labour following the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The good news is there are no additional job layoffs after the banking panic hit in early March, but the bad news is the labour market was starting to unravel from the strongest in history even before the bank crisis,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “Today’s jobless claims data are an additional sign that the labour market is slowing.”

U.S. stocks opened lower. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed.

The labour market is expected to loosen up in the second quarter as companies respond more to slowing demand triggered by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases.

Credit conditions have also tightened following the recent failure of two regional banks, which could make it harder for small businesses and households to access funding.

Small businesses, like restaurants and bars, have been the main drivers of job growth. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this week suggested that the labour market was fraying at the edges.

The Labor Department reported on Tuesday that job openings fell below 10 million at the end of February for first time in nearly two years. Still, there were 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in February, which is making it easier for some laid-off workers to quickly find employment.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 6,000 to 1.823 million during the week ending March 25, the claims report showed.

The claims data has no bearing on March’s employment report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 239,000 jobs in March after rising by 311,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 3.6 per cent.

Cooling labour market conditions could allow the Fed to halt its fastest interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s.

The U.S. central bank last month raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, but indicated it was on the verge of pausing further rate hikes due to financial market turmoil. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 475 basis points since last March from the near-zero level to the current 4.75 per cent-5.00 per cent range.

Signs that the labour market was losing speed were underscored by a separate report on Thursday from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that showed U.S.-based employers announced 89,703 job cuts in March, up 15 per cent from February. Layoffs jumped 319 per cent on a year-on-year basis last month and were concentrated in the technology industry.

Layoffs this year have been blamed on a range of factors, including market or economic conditions, cost-cutting, store or department closures as well as financial loss. Businesses also have had little desire to add workers.

“With rate hikes continuing and companies reigning in costs, the large-scale layoffs we are seeing will likely continue,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

PUBLISHED THU, APR 6 20231:50 AM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday but posted a third weekly gain as markets weighed further production cuts targeted by OPEC+ and falling U.S. oil inventories against fears about the global economic outlook.

Brent crude settled down 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $84.86 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude closed 14 cents, or 0.2%, lower at $80.47. There will be no trading on the Good Friday holiday.

Both benchmarks jumped more than 6% this week after OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, surprised the market on Sunday with a pledge of production cuts.

Hedge funds have bought crude all week, moving from the sidelines back into “risk on” mode, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

Prices drew support from a steeper-than-expected drop and a second consecutive weekly drawdown in U.S. crude inventories last week. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, hinting at rising demand.

U.S. energy firms this week also cut the number of oil rigs for a second week in a row. The rig count, an early indicator of future output, dropped two to 590 this week, Baker Hughes data showed.

Limiting gains, however, U.S. labor market data pointed to slowing economic growth, and there was also slower-than-expected growth in the U.S. services sector.

“Demand destruction as function of the threat of recession is greater than the cut by OPEC+,” said Robert Yawger, said director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities.

Buyers of put options that hedge downside risk were more active than buyers of call options, which bets on rising prices, implying traders were worried prices could fall, Yawger added.

“The oil market’s bullish momentum may have paused, but upside potential remains given the tightening supply backdrop,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on Thursday, helped by a rally in Alphabet shares as investors, worried about a slowing economy, looked to upcoming jobs data. Canada’s main stock index also edged higher, adding to its weekly gain, as most major sectors advanced and domestic data showed the economy adding more jobs than expected last month.

Alphabet Inc rallied 3.8% and Microsoft climbed 2.6%, with both providing more fuel than any other stocks for the S&P 500′s gain for the session. Alphabet’s Google unit plans to add artificial intelligence features to its search engine, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Adding to recent data hinting at a weak labour market, U.S. initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended April 1, versus expectations of 200,000 claims.

The Labor Department’s data from the prior week was revised to show 48,000 more applications were received.

Wall Street has lost ground in recent days in response to signs of a slowing economy, including weak data on private payrolls and job openings earlier this week.

That marked a change from recent months, when investors cheered weak economic data on the basis that it might mean the Fed’s interest rate hikes were working and that the Fed could ease up on its campaign to rein in decades-high inflation.

Interest rate futures imply traders are divided about whether the Fed will raise its target rate or keep it steady at its upcoming May meeting, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch tool.

“The market is trying to decide whether the ‘growth and recession’ scare or the ‘Fed hiking’ scare are more meaningful to prices, and so it’s waffling between whether a softening labor market is good news because it gets the Fed to pause in May or bad news because it means the recession is actually coming,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky.

Investors are now focused on the more comprehensive report on non-farm payrolls, which are expected to have increased by 239,000 in March, down from the 311,000 jobs added in the prior month. That report is due on Friday, when the U.S. and Canadian stock markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 37.14 points, or 0.2%, at 20,196.69, preliminary data showed. For the week, it was up 5%, its third straight weekly advance.

The Canadian economy added 35,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate remained near a record low, a sign of economic resilience ahead of a central bank policy meeting next week.

Nine of the TSX’s 10 major sectors gained ground, including a gain of 0.7% for consumer staples rose, while industrials ended 0.6% higher.

Energy gave back some of its weekly gain, falling 0.7%. It was boosted earlier in the week by a jump in oil prices after major producers cut their output target.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.36% to end the session at 4,105.02 points.

The Nasdaq gained 0.76% to 12,087.96 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01% to 33,485.29 points.

Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, eight rose, led by communication services, up 1.71%, followed by a 0.74% gain in utilities.

With some investors away during a shortened holiday week, volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively light, with 9 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 12.7 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

For the week, the S&P 500 declined 0.1%, the Dow added 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 1.1%.

In Thursday’s trading, Caterpillar, viewed as a bellwether for the industrial sector, dipped 2%, bringing its loss over the past three days to 9% as investors fretted about a potential economic downturn.

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc surged 21% after a U.S. court denied the theater operator’s request to lift a status quo order necessary for its plan to convert preferred shares to common shares.

Levi Strauss & Co tumbled 16% after the apparel maker posted a fall in quarterly profit.

Big banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup will be among companies kicking off the quarterly reporting season next week, with investors eager for updates on the health of the sector after a recent banking crisis.

Analysts on average expect aggregate S&P 500 company earnings for the first quarter to have fallen 5% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S.

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 by a 1.2-to-one ratio.The S&P 500 posted six new highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 177 new lows.

Reuters, Globe staff

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA — Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Monday that Malaysia was prepared to negotiate the South China Sea dispute with Beijing to safeguard the country’s energy exploration efforts.

China claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea — a strategic waterway through which trillions of dollars in trade pass annually — despite an international court ruling that Beijing’s assertion has no legal basis.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei all have overlapping claims in the sea, while the United States sends naval vessels through it to assert freedom of navigation in international waters.

Anwar — who was on a visit to Beijing recently — said the “sensitive” issue was raised at a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping as Malaysia’s state energy firm Petronas has its largest oil platform in the disputed area, as well as several exploration projects.

“I said, as a small country we need the resources, (like) oil and gas, we have to continue (exploration projects),” Anwar said during a monthly speech to staff at the Prime Minister’s Office.

“But if the condition is that there must be negotiations, then we are ready to negotiate.”

The premier did not provide further details on the conversation with Xi.

While asserting their claims in the South China Sea, Chinese authorities in recent years have ramped up its development of artificial islands, including outfitting some with military facilities and runways.

Regional nations have also accused Chinese vessels of harassing their fishing boats.

In 2021, Malaysia summoned Beijing’s envoy to the Southeast Asian country in protest after Chinese vessels entered its maritime economic zone in the disputed sea.

Earlier that year, it scrambled fighter jets to intercept 16 Chinese military aircraft that appeared off Borneo over the South China Sea.

— AFP

MONTREAL, CANADA — Canada announced Tuesday it has opened an investigation into the US-based software firm behind ChatGPT, the buzzy artificial intelligence chatbot.

The investigation by the Office of the Privacy Commissioner into OpenAI was opened in response to a “complaint alleging the collection, use and disclosure of personal information without consent,” the agency said.

Launched in November, OpenAI’s chatbot uses information available online to provide detailed answers to users’ queries.

ChatGPT caused a global sensation when it was released last year for its ability to generate essays, songs, exams and even news articles from brief prompts.

But critics have long fretted that it was unclear where ChatGPT and its competitors got their data or how they processed it.

“We need to keep up with –- and stay ahead of -– fast-moving technological advances, and that is one of my key focus areas,” said Canadian privacy commissioner Philippe Dufresne.

With funding from tech giant Microsoft, which has already added the tool to several of its services, ChatGPT is sometimes touted as a potential competitor to Google’s search engine.

The move by Canada’s regulator comes amid growing calls for stepped up scrutiny of AI-powered technology.

Last week, billionaire Elon Musk — a founder of OpenAI but no longer a member of the board — and hundreds of global experts called for a six-month pause in research on AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, the latest iteration of the software on which ChatGPT is based, citing “profound risks to society and humanity.”

Italy on Friday also became the first country in the Western world to block ChatGPT over concerns about data use.

The European police agency Europol recently warned that criminals are poised to take advantage of artificial intelligence like conversational bots to commit fraud and other cybercrimes.

— AFP