Author: Consultant

  • Bank of Canada delivers half-point rate hike, signals end of aggressive campaign may be near

    Bank of Canada delivers half-point rate hike, signals end of aggressive campaign may be near

    The Bank of Canada increased interest rates for the seventh consecutive time on Wednesday, surprising markets with another oversized move while signaling that it may be nearing the end of its historic rate-hike cycle.

    The bank’s governing council raised the benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to 4.25 per cent, the highest level since early 2008.

    This is the latest step in a nine-month dash to increase Canadian borrowing costs, which has driven mortgage expenses sharply higher and plunged the housing market into a deep funk. The central bank is squeezing Canadian finances in an effort to slow spending throughout the economy and get the highest inflation in four decades under control.

    Investors were expecting a more dovish quarter-point increase. But even as the bank defied those expectations it softened its language about future rate increases – a sign that its rate-hike campaign is fast approaching a turning point, with a potential pause coming as early as January.

    “Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance,” the bank said in its one-page rate decision statement. In previous rate announcements, the bank had said that it expected rates “will need to rise further.”

    The bank said it remains “resolute” in its commitment to tackling high inflation, which is eroding wages and making life less affordable for Canadians.

    Bank of Canada rate decision: Follow live updates

    But after pushing the policy rate up by 400 basis points since March, in one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles on record, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and his team are having to balance the risk of doing too little to fight inflation against the risk of doing too much and crashing the economy. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)

    Interest-rate increases take time to affect the economy, often up to six to eight quarters. Sectors that rely on borrowed money, such as real estate and car sales, typically get hit first. Other industries are pinched over time, as people spend more money servicing their debt and have less to spend on other things.

    This lag means the Bank of Canada can’t immediately measure the effects of its rate hikes, which creates the risk that it will increase borrowing costs more than is necessary to bring inflation under control. The central bank is already forecasting near-zero growth over the next three quarters, putting the Canadian economy right on the edge of recession.

    “The tightening cycle likely has reached its zenith, but we’ll need the pain of these higher rates to persist for a while to stall economic growth and thereby cool inflation,” Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce chief economist Avery Shenfeld wrote in a note to clients.

    Financial markets expect the Bank of Canada to stand pat at 4.25 per cent at its next rate decision on Jan. 25.

    Inflation has trended down since the summer. Annual Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 6.9 per cent in October, down from a peak of 8.1 per cent in June, and the bank noted that three-month indicators suggest that price pressures “may be losing momentum.” That said, inflation is still more than three times the central bank’s 2-per-cent target. It does not expect inflation to reach 2 per cent until 2024.

    Heading into Wednesday’s rate decision, Bay Street analysts were split over whether the bank would move by 25 or 50 basis points. Recent economic data has been ambiguous, sending conflicting signals about how much the economy is weakening in the face of higher interest rates.

    Canadian GDP grew nearly twice as fast as the Bank of Canada was expecting in the third quarter, and the unemployment rate remains near a historic low. The bank said in its rate statement that the economy continues to operate with “excess demand.” That means Canadians want to buy more than the economy can supply and businesses want to hire more workers than are available, pushing up both prices and wages.

    At the same time, there is growing evidence that higher interest rates are “restraining domestic demand,” the bank said. This is clearest in the housing market. National home sales were down 36 per cent year-over-year in October, and prices down 10 per cent.

    There are also signs that consumers are tightening their belts. Household spending fell 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, the first drop since the second quarter of 2021.

    The bank said there is more pain on the horizon, as “growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year.”

    Mr. Macklem said in a speech last month that unemployment needs to rise to get inflation under control, although he is not expecting joblessness to increase as sharply as it did in previous recessions.

    ‘The tightening cycle likely has reached its zenith’: How the Street is reacting to today’s BOC rate hike

    In a separate speech last month, the bank’s senior deputy governor, Carolyn Rogers, said homeowners with variable rate mortgages who stretched themselves financially to buy homes during the pandemic are experiencing a particularly “painful” adjustment. Bank of Canada research shows around half of all variable rate mortgages with fixed monthly payments have already hit “trigger rates,” which frequently means the borrowers need to up their monthly payments. This could rise to 65 per cent in the coming months, the bank projects.

    Variable rate mortgages are typically tied to commercial bank prime rates. Canada’s large banks all raised their prime rates to 6.45 per cent from 5.95 per cent on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada announcement.

    While Wednesday’s rate hike will squeeze some homeowners, the bank’s signal that it will stop raising rates soon is good news for the housing market, Royal LePage chief executive Phil Soper said in an interview.

    He said plenty of buyers are sitting on the sidelines, not because they can’t afford homes, but because they’re uncertain about the direction of the market. “It’s not a capacity issue. It’s a confidence issue,” he said.

    He thinks home prices have slightly farther to fall, and that they will bottom out in the first quarter of 2023 at about 12 per cent below the same quarter last year.

    The rate decision drew the ire of opposition politicians during Question Period in Ottawa on Wednesday. Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre called it “another uppercut for Canadians,” and argued that federal spending is fuelling inflation and forcing the bank to tighten rates.

    NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said the rate hike will “mean a lot of pain for Canadian families,” and called on the government to come up with “a way to tackle the inflation that doesn’t create pain for workers.”

    Liberal associate finance minister Randy Boissonnault responded that the Bank of Canada is independent from politics. “The bank is doing their job, we’re doing our job,” he said.

    Inflation has become a topic of intense political debate over the past year, and politicians on both the left and the right have been critical of the central bank. Mr. Poilievre has said he would fire Mr. Macklem if the Conservatives form government, while Mr. Singh has said the bank’s approach to inflation fighting has “absolutely no merit.”

    Josh Nye, senior economist with Royal Bank of Canada, said it’s too early to judge whether or not the bank’s aggressive rate-hike campaign has been a success.

    “Whether they have calibrated monetary policy properly to the situation, that’s only going to be apparent in hindsight. I think that will depend on how much economic activity slows in 2023 and how quickly inflation gets back down to the bank’s 2-per-cent target,” he said.

  • Live updates: Bank of Canada raises key interest rate by 50 basis points, delivering seventh consecutive increase

    Live updates: Bank of Canada raises key interest rate by 50 basis points, delivering seventh consecutive increase

    The latest on the Bank of Canada’s rate decision

    MARK RENDELL

    The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, surprising markets with another oversized rate hike and signaling that it may be nearing the end of its historic rate-hike cycle.

    This moves the central bank’s policy rate to 4.25 per cent from 3.75 per cent – the first time it has topped 4 per cent since early 2008.

    The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, surprising markets with another oversized rate hike while signaling that it may be nearing the end of its historic rate-hike cycle.

    The Wednesday announcement lifts the policy rate to 4.25 per cent from 3.75 per cent, the highest level since early 2008. Markets were expecting a smaller 25-basis-point increase. (A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point).

    While the bank opted for another large move, it softened its language about future rate increases – a sign that its aggressive campaign against inflation may be approaching a turning point.

    “Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance,” the bank said in its one-page rate decision statement. In previous rate announcements, the bank had said that it expected rates “will need to rise further.”

    Bank of Canada rate decision: Follow live updates

    This shift in language will inform market expectations about how much further the bank intends to go before pausing its rate hikes. Markets are pricing a “terminal rate” of 4.25 per cent. Canadian bond yields rose slightly following the announcement, and the Loonie strengthened against the U.S. dollar.

    The bank has now increased interest rates seven times since March in an effort to tackle the highest inflation in decades. Higher interest rates make it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and service existing debts. The goal is to lower spending throughout the economy to slow the pace of price increases.

    Inflation has trended down since the summer. Annual consumer price index inflation stood at 6.9 per cent in October, down from a peak of 8.1 per cent in June, and the bank noted that three-month indicators suggest that price pressures “may be losing momentum.” But inflation is still more than three times the central bank’s 2-per-cent target and people’s expectations about future inflation remain elevated.

    “The tightening cycle likely has reached its zenith, but we’ll need the pain of these higher rates to persist for a while to stall economic growth and thereby cool inflation,” Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce chief economist Avery Shenfeld wrote in a note to clients.

    ‘The tightening cycle likely has reached its zenith’: How the Street is reacting to today’s BOC rate hike

    Heading into the decision, Bay Street Analysts were split on whether the bank would move by 25 or 50 basis points. Recent economic data has been ambiguous, sending conflicting signals about how much the economy is weakening in the face of higher interest rates.

    The Bank of Canada highlighted the resilience of the economy in its rate statement, noting that GDP in the third quarter was “stronger than expected.” It said the economy continues to operate in “excess demand,” with tight labour markets and near record-low unemployment.

    At the same time, the bank said that higher rates are “restraining domestic demand.” The housing market is in a deep slump, with national sales down 36 per cent year-over-year in October, and prices down 10 percent. There are also signs that consumers are tightening their belts in response to higher rates. Household spending fell 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, the first drop since the second quarter of 2021.

    “We assume that the resilience of the labour market and a desire not to send too dovish a message will cause the Bank to enact one final 25-basis-point hike in January,” Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist with Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients. “But with Canadian oil prices tumbling below $50 in recent days, almost 40 per cent lower than the Bank assumed in its October Monetary Policy Report, it would not be a complete surprise if today marks the last hike in this cycle.”

    Monetary-policy changes take time to work through the economy, often up to six to eight quarters. This lag opens up the risk of overtightening if the bank is not careful. Over the past month-and-a-half, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has begun arguing that the bank needs to balance doing too little to fight inflation against the risk of doing too much and crashing the economy.

    “Overall, the data since the October MPR support the Bank’s outlook that growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year,” the bank said. Its latest economic forecast from October shows near-zero growth for the next three quarters putting the Canadian economy right on the edge of recession.

    Deputy governor Sharon Kozicki will deliver a speech on Thursday explaining the bank’s decision. The next rate decision is on January 25.

  • Russia says it won’t accept an oil price cap; warns of cutoffs

    Russia says it won’t accept an oil price cap; warns of cutoffs

    Russian authorities rejected a price cap on the country’s oil set by Ukraine’s Western supporters and threatened Saturday to stop supplying the nations that endorsed it.

    Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, the United States and the 27-nation European Union agreed Friday to cap what they would pay for Russian oil at $60-per-barrel. The limit is set to take effect Monday, along with an EU embargo on Russian oil shipped by sea.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia needed to analyze the situation before deciding on a specific response but that it would not accept the price ceiling. Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, warned that the cap’s European backers would come to rue their decision.

    OPEC+ will keep oil policy unchanged in review talks, sources say

    Eric Reguly: The new price cap on Russian oil will not deliver the fatal blow to Putin’s war machine, maybe not even a bruise

    “From this year, Europe will live without Russian oil,” Ulyanov tweeted. “Moscow has already made it clear that it will not supply oil to those countries that support anti-market price caps. Wait, very soon the EU will accuse Russia of using oil as a weapon.”

    The office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, called Saturday for a lower price cap, saying the one adopted by the EU and the Group of Seven leading economies didn’t go far enough.

    “It would be necessary to lower it to $30 in order to destroy the enemy’s economy faster,” Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office, wrote on Telegram, staking out a position also favoured by Poland – a leading critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

    Under Friday’s agreements, insurance companies and other firms needed to ship oil would only be able to deal with Russian crude if the oil is priced at or below the cap. Most insurers are located in the EU and the United Kingdom and could be required to observe the ceiling.

    The Russian Embassy in Washington insisted that Russian oil “will continue to be in demand” and criticized the price limit as “reshaping the basic principles of the functioning of free markets.” A post on the embassy’s Telegram channel predicted the per-barrel cap would lead to “a widespread increase in uncertainty and higher costs for consumers of raw materials.”

    The price cap aims to put an economic squeeze on Russia and further crimp its ability to finance a war that has killed an untold number of civilians and fighters, driven millions of Ukrainians from their homes and weighed on the world economy for more than nine months.

    The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that since Friday Russia’s forces had fired five missiles, carried out 27 air strikes and launched 44 shelling attacks against Ukraine’s military positions and civilian infrastructure.

    Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of the president’s office, said the attacks killed one civilian and wounded four others in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. According to the U.K. Defense Ministry, Russian forces “continue to invest a large element of their overall military effort and firepower” around the small Donetsk city of Bakhmut, which they have spent weeks trying to capture.

    In southern Ukraine’s Kherson province, whose capital city of the same name was liberated by Ukrainian forces three weeks ago following a Russian retreat, Gov. Yaroslav Yanushkevich said evacuations of civilians stuck in Russian-held territory across the Dnieper River would resume temporarily.

    Russian forces pulled back to the river’s eastern bank last month. Yanushkevich said a ban on crossing the waterway would be lifted during daylight hours for three days for Ukrainian citizens who “did not have time to leave the temporarily occupied territory.” His announcement cited a “possible intensification of hostilities in this area.”

    Kherson is one of four regions that Putin illegally annexed in September and vowed to defend as Russian territory. From their new positions, Russian troops have regularly shelled Kherson city and nearby infrastructure in recent days, leaving many residents without power. Running water remained unavailable in much of the city.

    The city continued to suffer heavy shelling Saturday that left many residents disoriented, toppled power lines and dumped torn-off tree branches on the roads.

    “When we start to repair (electricity networks), the shelling starts immediately,” said Oleksandr Kravchenko, who is in charge of high-voltage networks in Kherson. “We just repair electric lines and on the next day we have to repair lines again.”

    Ukrainian authorities also reported intense fighting in Luhansk and Russian shelling of northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, which Russia’s soldiers mostly withdrew from in September.

    The mayor of the city of Kharkiv, which remained under Ukrainian control during Russia’s occupation of other parts of the region, said some 500 apartment buildings were damaged beyond repair, and nearly 220 schools and kindergartens were damaged or destroyed. He estimated the cost of the damage at $9 billion.

    Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met Saturday in Minsk with the president and defense minister of Belarus, which hosts Russian troops and artillery. Belarus has said its own forces are not taking part in the war, but Ukrainian officials have frequently expressed concern that they could be induced to cross the border into northern Ukraine.

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said at the meeting that his troops and Russian forces train in co-ordination. “We ready ourselves as one grouping, one army. Everyone knows it. We were not hiding it,” he was quoted as saying by the news agency Interfax.

  • CIBC got clobbered this week. The stock is worth a look

    CIBC got clobbered this week. The stock is worth a look

    If you’re worried about the ability of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T -0.70%decrease to navigate through rising interest rates, a deteriorating housing market and an unstable economy, relax: The market is way ahead of you.

    After reporting disappointing quarterly financial results on Thursday, CIBC’s share price fell 7.7 per cent, which is an unusually severe one-day decline for a big-bank stock.

    The share price is now down 28 per cent from a high point in early February, making it the worst performer among its peers over this period.

    But CIBC also stands out with an attractive dividend yield of 5.7 per cent and a valuation that is at the low end of its historical range. Does that make it a bargain worth betting on?

    Canadian banks have been struggling this year as rising interest rates weigh on economic activity and raise concerns about the financial health of homeowners with large mortgages.

    As a group, the Big Six banks are down by an average of 9 per cent. For a sector that outperforms the broader stock market over the long term, this year is a fail: The banks have lagged the S&P/TSX Composite Index by 5 percentage points in 2022 with one month left.

    This week, the banks’ fiscal-fourth-quarter results shed some light on why the group has lost the affection of investors. As a group, the banks are setting aside more money to cover bad loans and reporting flat or even lower profits than a year ago.

    CIBC offered a particularly uninspiring snapshot.

    The bank’s net income declined 18 per cent from the same quarter last year, and 29 per cent from the previous quarter, largely because it set aside far more money to cover bad loans given the dimmer outlook for U.S. and Canadian economic activity.

    These provisions for credit losses jumped to $436-million in the fourth quarter, up 459 per cent from the same quarter last year.

    “This quarter doesn’t really reflect the earnings power of the bank,” Victor Dodig, CIBC’s chief executive officer, said during a conference call with analysts on Thursday.

    Mr. Dodig said he preferred to focus on the full fiscal year, in which the bank acquired retailer Costco’s Canadian credit card portfolio, with two million cardholders. CIBC also added a net 350,000 clients to the bank, 38 per cent of them deemed highly desirable affluent bank customers with money to invest.

    However, a number of analysts didn’t like what they saw in the fourth quarter, and responded by cutting their target prices, or where they expect CIBC shares to trade within 12 months.

    Gabriel Dechaine, an analyst at National Bank of Canada, slashed his target price to $67 from $80 previously, which is a 16-per-cent haircut. He also changed his recommendation on the stock to “sector perform” from “outperform,” essentially removing the “buy” recommendation he had on the stock for the past two years.

    One key concern of analysts: Margins on loans are being squeezed, particularly in the case of mortgage renewals – a serious hurdle for CIBC given the bank’s relatively high exposure to the Canadian housing market.

    “This issue could persist over the next couple of quarters, which is reflected in management’s guidance for improved margins only by the second half of fiscal 2023,” Mr. Dechaine said in a note.

    Still, long-term investors with an appetite for risk might see a few reasons to give the stock some consideration.

    For one thing, Canadian bank stocks have gone in wildly different directions this year. At one extreme, top-performing Royal Bank of Canada – big, diversified and deemed a safer bet in an uncertain environment – has outperformed CIBC by more than 19 percentage points in 2022.

    This wide dispersion suggests that the stock market is expecting an economic downturn that will disproportionately affect CIBC, yet the bank is already preparing for economic uncertainty with provisions for loan losses and a robust financial buffer.

    For another, CIBC’s valuation is down. According to data from RBC Dominion Securities, released last week before the banks reported their fourth-quarter results, CIBC’s stock trades at just 8.6 times estimated 2023 earnings. That’s well below the 15-year average of 9.8 and it suggests the downside risk could be low.

    And lastly, consider CIBC’s dividend yield. At 5.7 per cent, it offers investors a handsome reward for taking a chance on an unpopular stock – and a powerful incentive to wait out economic uncertainty.

  • OPEC+ agrees to stick to its existing policy of reducing oil production ahead of Russia sanctions

    OPEC+ agrees to stick to its existing policy of reducing oil production ahead of Russia sanctions

    • The European Union is poised to ban all imports of Russian seaborne crude from Monday.
    • The Kremlin has previously warned that any attempt to impose a price cap on Russian oil will cause more harm than good.
    • Oil prices have fallen to below $90 a barrel from more than $120 in early June ahead of potentially disruptive sanctions on Russian oil

    An influential alliance of oil producers on Sunday agreed to stay the course on output policy ahead of a pending ban from the European Union on Russian crude.

    OPEC and non-OPEC producers, a group of 23 oil-producing nations known as OPEC+, decided to stick to its existing policy of reducing oil production by 2 million barrels per day, or about 2% of world demand, from November until the end of 2023.

    Energy analysts had expected OPEC+ to consider fresh price-supporting production cuts ahead of a possible double blow to Russia’s oil revenues.

    The European Union is poised to ban all imports of Russian seaborne crude from Monday, while the U.S. and other members of the G-7 will impose a price cap on the oil Russia sells to countries around the world.

    The Kremlin has previously warned that any attempt to impose a price cap on Russian oil will cause more harm than good.

    Oil prices have fallen to below $90 a barrel from more than $120 in early June ahead of potentially disruptive sanctions on Russian oil, weakening crude demand in China and mounting fears of a recession.

    Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ agreed in early October to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November. It came despite calls from the U.S. for the group to pump more to lower fuel prices and help the global economy.

  • Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse

    Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse

    • U.S. manufacturing orders in China are down 40% in what a logistics manager described to CNBC as an unrelenting demand collapse.
    • Asia-based shipping firm HLS recently told clients it is a “very bad time for the shipping industry.”
    • China to U.S. container volume was down 21% between August and November.
    • Chinese factories are shutting down two weeks earlier than usual ahead of Chinese New Year.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/04/manufacturing-orders-from-china-down-40percent-in-demand-collapse.html

  • OPEC+ to consider deeper oil output cuts ahead of Russia sanctions and proposed price cap

    OPEC+ to consider deeper oil output cuts ahead of Russia sanctions and proposed price cap

    • OPEC+, a group of 23 oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will convene on Sunday to decide on the next phase of production policy.
    • The highly anticipated meeting comes ahead of potentially disruptive sanctions on Russian oil, weakening crude demand in China and mounting fears of a recession.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/opec-meeting-oil-output-cuts-on-the-table-ahead-of-russia-sanctions.html

  • Beijing, Shenzhen loosen more Covid curbs as China easing gathers pace

    Beijing, Shenzhen loosen more Covid curbs as China easing gathers pace

    • Although daily cases hover near all-time highs, some cities are taking steps to loosen Covid-19 testing requirements and quarantine rules amid an economic slowdown and public frustration that has boiled over into unrest.
    • Beijing residents cheered the removal of Covid-19 testing booths while Shenzhen followed other cities in announcing it would no longer require commuters to present their test results to travel.
    • China began tweaking its approach last month, urging localities to become more targeted. Initial reactions, however, were marked with confusion and even tighter lockdowns as cities scrambled to keep a lid on rising cases.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/03/beijing-shenzhen-loosen-more-covid-curbs-as-china-easing-gathers-pace.html

  • Economic Calendar: Dec 5 – Dec 9

    Economic Calendar: Dec 5 – Dec 9

    Monday December 5

    China, Japan and Euro zone services and composite PMI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for October. Estimate is an increase of 5.0 per cent month-over-month.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for October. The Street is forecasting a month-over-month increase of 0.7 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM services PMI for November.

    ==

    Tuesday December 6

    China foreign reserves and trade surplus

    Japan household spending

    Germany factory orders

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for October.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade balance for October.

    (10 a.m. ET) Canadian Ivey PMI for November.

    Earnings include: AutoZone Inc.; Evertz Technologies Ltd.; Ferguson PLC

    ==

    Wednesday December 7

    Euro zone GDP

    Germany industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity for Q3. The Street expects an annualized rate rise of 0.3 per cent with unit labour costs increasing 3.2 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement.

    (3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for October.

    Earnings include: Brown Forman; Campbell Soup Co.; Descartes Systems Group Inc.; Dollarama Inc.; North West Co. Inc.; Snowflake Inc.

    ==

    Thursday December 8

    Japan GDP, current account balance and bank lending

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Dec. 3. Estimate is 230,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.

    (12:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki delivers the Economic Progress Report in Montreal.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q3.

    Also: Quebec’s fiscal update

    Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Chewy Inc.; Costco Wholesale Corp.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.

    ==

    Friday December 9

    China CPI, PPI, aggregate yuan financing, new loans and money supply

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian capacity utilization for Q3.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI for November. Consensus is a increase of 0.2 per cent from October and up 7.2 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale trade for October.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December (preliminary reading).

    Earnings include: Laurentian Bank of Canada