Author: Consultant

  • TSX Sheds Nearly 2% As Stocks Continue To Fall On Recession Fears

    TSX Sheds Nearly 2% As Stocks Continue To Fall On Recession Fears

    The Canadian market ended notably lower on Tuesday, led by losses in healthcare, energy, technology and financials sectors.

    Several stocks from materials, real estate and utilities sections too declined sharply.

    Worries about surging interest rates and fears of a recession triggered heavy selling in several stocks from across various sectors. The sentiment was also hurt by the International Monetary Fund’s report lowering the global growth forecast for next year.

    The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index ended with a loss of 366.45 points or 1.97% at 18,216.88.

    Canopy Growth Corporation (WEED.TO) tanked more than 14%. Canadian Tire Corporation (CTC.TO), Cogeco Inc (CGO.TO), Precision Drilling Corporation (PD.TO), Kinaxis Inc (KXS.TO), CargoJet (CJT.TO), goeasy (GSY.TO), Descartes Systems Group (DSG.TO), Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH.TO), Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) and Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) are up 2 to 5 percent.

    The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook Report that the world economy is set to witness more pain next year.

    The global lender cut the growth projection for next year to 2.7% from 3.3%, while it retained the outlook for this year at 3.2% after a 6% expansion in 2021.

    “This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and reflects significant slowdowns for the largest economies,” IMF said in the foreword to the latest World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday.

    Roughly a third of the world economy faces two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the lender said. “In short, the worst is yet to come and, for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”

  • Westshore Terminals Reaches Tentative Deal With Union, Work Resumes At Terminal

    Westshore Terminals Reaches Tentative Deal With Union, Work Resumes At Terminal

    VANCOUVER — Westshore Terminals Investment Corp. says it has reached a tentative agreement with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, ending a strike that began last month.

    The company says work resumed at the terminal on Oct. 9.

    Terms of the six-year agreement with Local 502 were not immediately available. The deal is subject to a ratification vote by the end of the month.

    The company says negotiations with Local 502 were the first of three union locals. It says talks with ILWU Locals 514 and 517 will be scheduled in the near future.

    Westshore says its annual throughput volume for 2022 is estimated at 24 to 25 million tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 27.5 million tonnes.

    It says the reduction reflects the impact of the labour disruption as well as lower than expected performance from BNSF, the rail carrier for its U.S. customers.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2022.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:WTE)

  • Nutrien’s new CEO Ken Seitz has a lot on his plate

    Nutrien’s new CEO Ken Seitz has a lot on his plate

    In some ways, Ken Seitz, the new chief executive of fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd., NTR-T -2.12%decrease is in an enviable position.

    As long as he doesn’t get fired, he’ll be ahead of his two predecessors, Mayo Schmidt and Chuck Magro, both of whom were shown the door in the past year and a half. And as a former miner himself, Mr. Seitz commands a natural respect from the thousands of men and women who work a kilometre underground in Nutrien’s six potash mines in Saskatchewan, some of which have been in operation since the late 1960s.

    On top of all that, potash, the potassium-rich fertilizer ingredient that is the Saskatoon-based company’s most important commodity, is in a bull market the likes of which the industry has not seen since the heady days of the mid-2000s.

    Nutrien taps Ken Seitz as permanent CEO as it looks to move past executive turmoil

    But there is still plenty to fret about for the former farm boy, who grew up just outside Regina. Nutrien, once seen as the ultimate steady-as-she-goes, borderline-boring stalwart of the mining industry, has the spotlight firmly pinned on it. After the turmoil that surrounded the exits of the company’s former CEOs, Mr. Seitz needs to prove he has the mettle to get the company back on track.

    Mr. Magro, Nutrien’s CEO since the company was formed out of a merger of PotashCorp of Saskatchewan and Agrium Inc. in 2018, was terminated in April of last year. That was becausethe board opposed his plans to partner on Australian megaminer BHP Group Ltd.’s potash project in Jansen, Sask.

    Mr. Schmidt, who was chairman of the board during the clash with Mr. Magro, was elevated to CEO only to be turfed after eight months, mainly because of his brusque leadership style, which caused tension both within Nutrien and externally with investors.

    After Mr. Schmidt’s dismissal in January, Mr. Seitz was named interim CEO, and he was made permanent in August. In an interview at the company’s Cory potash mine just outside of Saskatoon last week, he would not say much of anything about the messy exits of his predecessors. He offered only a hint of what it felt like to step into the morass.

    “For my part, it was really about blocking out all the noise, and staying focused,” he said.

    There is much for Mr. Seitz to focus on.

    Nutrien is keen to insert itself into any conversation about global food security. The world’s population is about 7.5 billion, and by some estimates it is expected to grow to 10 billion by 2050. Nobody is quite sure how all those new humans will be fed.

    A common saying among Nutrien employees these days is “we’re feeding the world.” The line is a bit of a stretch; it’s mainly farmers and food companies who feed the world. But fertilizer miners, fertilizer retailers, seed producers and seed retailers (Nutrien does all of those things) are parts of the equation.

    This year, Russia, the second largest global producer of potash after Canada, slashed production and exports of the commodity because of international sanctions placed on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. Belarus, the third largest producer, was already subject to sanctions before the war began. Shipments of potash out of the two countries fell by 25 and 50 per cent, respectively, in the first half of the year.

    This caused the prices of some potash contracts to surge to record levels. But the spike was followed by a pullback, because some farmers reduced consumption as a result of the high prices, and because Russia and Belarus found ways to work around the sanctions.

    Mr. Seitz has been tracking the fertilizer industry for decades. He was formerly head of potash at Nutrien. Before that, he was head of Canpotex Ltd., which markets and distributes potash internationally.

    He remembers the craziness of the 2000s, when potash raced to an all-time high based on speculative hype. And he remembers the collapse that followed after the bubble burst. That was an intense time, but the market this year is something else entirely.

    “It’s unlike anything that came before,” Mr. Seitz said.

    Nutrien is betting the bull market will persist. In June, the company announced it would boost its potash production by 15 per cent over the next three years.

    That ramp-up will not be cheap. The company estimates it will cost about $600-million. While Mr. Seitz said Nutrien has wiggle room to pull back on its planned production increases, there’s still risk associated with the move.

    The company will be on the hook for certain costs regardless of demand, because it has already ordered new supplies and equipment. Individual pieces of mining equipment, such as the monster machines that cut soft potash rock from the faces of mines, can cost tens of millions of dollars.

    Mr. Seitz said the “regret risks” of pushing too aggressively on production are relatively limited, because Nutrien isn’t building any new mines, which would come with gargantuan one-time fixed costs.

    He wasn’t shy about pointing out the risks associated with building new mines in this high-inflation environment – in part because that’s what Nutrien’s now-rival, BHP, is doing. After failing to reach an agreement with Nutrien during Mr. Magro’s time as CEO, BHP decided to build the Jansen mine on its own. It won’t be completed until 2026, and it will cost the company at least $7.5-billion.

    Analysts had warned repeatedly that Jansen would be bad for the company, because it would flood the market with excess supply.

    But now, with the global supply chain in a drastically different spot, Mr. Seitz sees the potential impact from the mine as less of a worry.

    He pointed out that Jansenwould only be about the size of one average-sized Nutrien mine. And it is significantly smaller than Nutrien’s biggest operation, Rocanville.

    Still, the industry is closely following BHP’s long-term intentions toward Nutrien. The Australian miner, at least on paper, is capable of swallowing its Canadian competitor whole.

    While Nutrien is large for a Canadian company, with a market value of $62-billion, BHP is worth US$130-billion. In 2010, BHP tried to buy Nutrien’s predecessor company, PotashCorp, but the deal was rejected by the federal government. Tony Clement, who was industry minister at the time, ruled that the takeover would not provide a net economic benefit for Canada.

    But Mr. Clement told Australia’s Financial Review last year that Ottawa’s decision-making process on foreign acquisitions has evolved in a way that could allow BHP to make a fresh move on Nutrien.

    He said the federal government’s takeover approvals now revolve around national security, with particular scrutiny paid to any moves by Chinese state-owned companies. A BHP takeover of Nutrien would be more likely to be approved today because of that shift in priorities, according to Mr. Clement, and because Australia is a strong ally of Canada.

    “But that would have been true in 2010 as well. So I’m not sure,” Mr. Seitz said. He added that he didn’t want to speculate on what Ottawa would do if BHP were to take another run at the company.

    A bigger near-term priority and constant worry for Mr. Seitz is keeping workers safe as the company pushes to meet its higher production targets. Technology has mechanized jobs that used to put people in danger, but it’s impossible to eliminate risk entirely.

    Late last month, an underground miner at the Cory mine was seriously injured and hospitalized. He had been doing reinforcement work in a section of the mine when a piece of rock gave way and hit him hard.

    “We’re optimistic about a full recovery,” Mr. Seitz said. “We’re doing everything now to help him.”

    He said Nutrien will learn from the accident and make improvements to its methods, as it has in the past. Ground fall accidents are rare at the company. This was the first one since 2014.

    “We’re working in soft rock mines. These hazards definitely exist,” he said. “The amount of unknowns that you’re working with is extraordinary.”

  • Before the Bell: Oct 11

    Before the Bell: Oct 11

    Equities

    Wall Street futures were lower early Tuesday signalling continued losses as traders await earnings from some of the biggest U.S. banks and new inflation figures later in the week. Major European markets were down in morning trading. TSX futures also fell alongside weaker crude prices.

    In the early premarket period, all three key U.S. indexes were in the red. On Monday, the Nasdaq lost 1.04 per cent, touching a two-year low. The S&P 500 lost 0.75 per cent while the Dow ended down 0.32 per cent. The S&P/TSX Composite Index was closed Monday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

    Recession concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that the U.S. and world economies could slip into recession by the middle of next year. World Bank President David Malpass and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also warned on Monday of a growing risk of global recession.

    “Risk sentiment is morose this week with the escalating tensions in Ukraine, rising COVID cases in China, mounting tensions between U.S. and China, the selloff in U.S. and other treasuries, the relentless appreciation in the U.S. dollar and the drop in safe haven currencies,” Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in an early note.

    Reuters reports that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to ask the leaders of the G7 group of nations to urgently supply Ukraine with weapons to defend itself from Russian missiles, a day after Moscow launched retaliatory strikes that killed 19 people.

    Meanwhile, COVID-19 concerns in China continue to weigh on sentiment with authorities in Shanghai and other big cities stepping up testing amid rising infections.

    Later in the week, investors will get third-quarter results from U.S. banks JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. All three are scheduled to release results on Friday morning.

    On the economic side, a fresh reading on U.S. inflation is due Thursday. Economists are expecting the annual rate of inflation to slow to 8.1 per cent in September from 8.3 per cent a month earlier.

    In this country, investors get results from fashion retailer Aritzia after the close of trading on Wednesday.

    Canada’s housing market is also in focus with new home sales figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association due on Friday. Last month, CREA cut its sales forecast and lowered its outlook for price growth.

    Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down nearly 1 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 1.16 per cent. Germany’s DAX fell 0.85 per cent and France’s CAC 40 was off 0.74 per cent.

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei slumped 2.64 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 2.23 per cent.

    Commodities

    Crude prices fell in early going, hit by ongoing fears of a global recession and concerns over rising COVID-19 cases in China.

    The day range on Brent is US$96.46 to US$94.08. The range on West Texas Intermediate is US$91.35 to US$88.74.

    “Oil prices are paring recent gains for the second day as the IMF and World Bank warn of an increased risk of a global recession,” OANDA senior analyst Craig Erlam said.

    “Those warnings won’t come as an enormous surprise given the immense economic headwinds as a result of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not to mention the baffling decision by OPEC+ last week to cut output by two million barrels per day which will only add to them.”

    In other commodities, gold prices fell, pressured by continued strength in the U.S. dollar.

    Spot gold was down 0.1 per cent at US$1,665.89 per ounce by early Tuesday morning, after earlier touching its lowest since Oct. 3. U.S. gold futures slid 0.1 per cent to US$1,672.60.

    “The rally in gold always looked like it was going to be difficult to sustain in an environment of higher government bond yields and a dominant [U.S.] dollar,” Mr. Erlam said.

    “And it has well and truly wilted over the last week, initially easing off its highs before totally giving up as it collapsed through US$1,700 before stabilizing a little today around US$1,660.”

    Currencies

    The Canadian dollar was down in early going as risk sentiment remains fragile and crude prices fell. The loonie’s U.S. counterpart, meanwhile, edged higher against a group of world currencies as investors sought out safer holdings.

    The day range on the loonie is 72.17 US cents to 72.63 US cents.

    There were no major economic Canadian economic releases on Tuesday’s calendar. On Friday, Statistics Canada will release factory and wholesale sales figures for August.

    “The data calendar is light as the market awaits U.S. CPI later this week for further market direction,” Elsa Lignos, global head of FX strategy, said in a note.

    “Without signs of cooling inflation, it is very hard to pivot. We disagree with those who argue equity softness alone will do it for the Fed – recall at worst we’re just back to summer 2020 levels (in the Nasdaq) or the post 2020-election gap higher (S&P, Dow), both of which at the time were new all-time highsafter a very fast COVID-liquidity led recovery.”

    The U.S. dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a group of world currencies, was up 0.2 per cent early Tuesday morning at 113.27, inching toward the 20-year high of 114.78 it touched late last month, according to figures from Reuters.

    The euro was little changed at US$0.9699, after four days of losses.

    Britain’s pound slid to its lowest level since Sept. 29 at US$1.0999. The pound was last down 0.4 per cent at US$1.10185, Reuters reports.

    Early Tuesday, the Bank of England acted again to stem a sharp sell off in Britain’s 2.1 trillion-pound (US$2.31-trillion) government bond market by announcing the purchase of inflation-linked debt until the end of this week.

    In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was higher at 3.941 per cent in the predawn period.

  • Bank of England intervenes in bond markets again, warns of ‘material risk’ to UK financial stability

    Bank of England intervenes in bond markets again, warns of ‘material risk’ to UK financial stability

    • “Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing ‘fire sale’ dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability,” the Bank of England warned.
    • The move marks the second expansion of the central bank’s extraordinary rescue package in as many days, after it increased the limit for its daily gilt purchases on Monday ahead of the planned end of the purchase scheme.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/bank-of-england-expands-bond-market-intervention-in-effort-to-quell-volatility.html

  • European markets slide as global growth concerns persist; Stoxx 600 down 1%

    European markets slide as global growth concerns persist; Stoxx 600 down 1%

    European markets retreated on Tuesday as concerns persisted over the global growth outlook and the prospect of more monetary policy tightening from central banks.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/european-markets-open-to-close-earnings-data-and-news.html

  • Gas prices rise and hit $3.91 per gallon

    Gas prices rise and hit $3.91 per gallon

    The national average pump price for a gallon of gasoline rose 12 cents over the past week to hit $3.91 on Monday according to data from AAA, fueled by high demand and tight supplies.

    AAA says the recent announcement from OPEC+ stating the group of oil-producing nations would slash output by 2 million barrels per day led to the price of oil creeping above $90 a barrel for the first time in several weeks, contributing to rising costs at the pump. 

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gas-prices-rise-hit-3-91-per-gallon

  • Farmers Condemn New Zealand’s Proposed Tax On Animal Burps

    Farmers Condemn New Zealand’s Proposed Tax On Animal Burps

    WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — New Zealand’s government on Tuesday proposed taxing the greenhouse gasses that farm animals make from burping and peeing as part of a plan to tackle climate change.

    The government said the farm levy would be a world first, and that farmers should be able to recoup the cost by charging more for climate-friendly products.

    But farmers quickly condemned the plan. Federated Farmers, the industry’s main lobby group, said the plan would “rip the guts out of small town New Zealand” and see farms replaced with trees.

    Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard said farmers had been trying to work with the government for more than two years on an emissions reduction plan that wouldn’t decrease food production.

    “Our plan was to keep farmers farming,” Hoggard said. Instead, he said farmers would be raising prices “so fast you won’t even hear the dogs barking on the back of the ute (pickup truck) as they drive off.”

    Opposition lawmakers from the conservative ACT Party said the plan would actually increase worldwide emissions by moving farming to other countries that were less efficient at making food.

    New Zealand’s farming industry is vital to its economy. Dairy products, including those used to make infant formula in China, are the nation’s largest export earner.

    There are just 5 million people in New Zealand but some 10 million beef and dairy cattle and 26 million sheep.

    The outsized industry has made New Zealand unusual in that about half of its greenhouse gas emissions come from farms. Farm animals produce gasses that warm the planet, particularly methane from cattle burping and nitrous oxide from their urine.

    The government has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the country carbon neutral by 2050. Part of that plan includes a pledge that it will reduce methane emissions from farm animals by 10% by 2030 and by up to 47% by 2050.

    Under the government’s proposed plan, farmers would start to pay for emissions in 2025, with the pricing yet to be finalized.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said all the money collected from the proposed farm levy would be put back into the industry to fund new technology, research and incentive payments for farmers.

    “New Zealand’s farmers are set to be the first in the world to reduce agricultural emissions, positioning our biggest export market for the competitive advantage that brings in a world increasingly discerning about the provenance of their food,” Ardern said.

    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said it was an exciting opportunity for New Zealand and its farmers.

    “Farmers are already experiencing the impact of climate change with more regular drought and flooding,” O’Connor said. “Taking the lead on agricultural emissions is both good for the environment and our economy.”

    The liberal Labour government’s proposal harks back to a similar but unsuccessful proposal made by a previous Labour government in 2003 to tax farm animals for their methane emissions.

    Farmers back then also vehemently opposed the idea, and political opponents ridiculed it as a “fart tax” — although a “burp tax” would have been more technically accurate as most of the methane emissions come from belching. The government eventually abandoned the plan.

    According to opinion polls, Ardern’s Labour Party has slipped in popularity and fallen behind the main opposition National Party since Ardern won a second term in 2020 in a landslide victory of historic proportions.

    If Ardern’s government can’t find agreement on the proposal with farmers, who have considerable political sway in New Zealand, it’s likely to make it more difficult for Ardern to win reelection next year when the nation goes back to the polls.

  • Economic Calendar: Oct 10 – Oct 14

    Economic Calendar: Oct 10 – Oct 14

    Monday October 10

    China yuan financing, M2 money supply.

    Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving day. U.S. stock markets are open, but bond markets are closed for Columbus day.

    Tuesday October 11

    UK September payrolls; Italy August industrial production

    (6 am ET) NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey

    Wednesday October 12

    Japan machine orders for August.

    UK real GDP for August, services index, industrial production, manufacturing production and trade deficit.

    (7 am ET) U.S. mortgage applications

    (830 am ET) U.S. Producer Price Index for September. Consensus is for a 0.3% rise month over month.

    (2pm ET) FOMC Minutes from September 20-21 meeting

    Two-day G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Washington begins.

    Earnings include: PepsiCo Inc.

    Thursday October 13

    China trade surplus for September

    Germany CPI for September

    (830 am ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week ended Oct. 8.

    (830 am. ET) U.S. consumer prices for September. Consensus is for a monthly rise of 0.2%, or 8.1% from a year ago, slowing from an 8.3% pace a month earlier. Excluding food and energy, CPI is expected to rise 0.4%, or 6.5% year over year – faster than August’s 6.3% rise.

    Earnings include: Aritzia Inc.; BlackRock Inc.; Delta Air Lines Inc.; Domino’s Pizza Inc.; Progressive Corp.; Walgreens Boot Alliance Inc.

    Friday October 14

    China CPI and PPI for September.

    Euro area trade deficit for August. France CPI for September.

    (830 am ET) Canada manufacturing sales for August. Consensus is for a decline of 1.2%.

    (830 am ET) Canada wholesale trade for August.

    (9 am ET) Canada existing home sales for September. It’s expected to decline 32% from a year earlier, with average prices down 6%.

    (9am ET) MLS Home Price Index for September. It’s expected to be up 2.5% year over year.

    (830 am ET) U.S. retail sales for September. Consensus is a monthly rise of 0.2%, or down 0.1% when excluding autos.

    (830 am ET) U.S. import prices. Consensus is for a year over year rise of 6.1%, slowing from August’s pace of 7.8%.

    (10 am ET) U.S. business inventories for August.

    (10 am ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October. It’s forecast to come in at 58.8, up slightly from September’s 58.6.

    Earnings include: Citigroup Inc.; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Morgan Stanley; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; UnitedHealth Group Inc.; U.S. Bancorp; Wells Fargo & Co.