Author: Consultant

  • Another hot inflation report and the start of earnings season make for a challenging week ahead

    Another hot inflation report and the start of earnings season make for a challenging week ahead

    • Consumer inflation data and the start of the second-quarter earnings season could set the course for markets and result in volatile trading in the week ahead.
    • The June consumer price index on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation, including food and energy, rising above May’s 8.6% level.
    • “The street has not really changed the [earnings] estimates. Revenue growth has ticked down. Margins are compressing. Analysts are leaving their estimates unchanged,” said one strategist. “If there’s going to be a readjustment, this is the time.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/another-hot-inflation-report-q2-earnings-make-for-difficult-week-ahead.html

  • Economic Calendar: July 11

    Economic Calendar: July 11

    Monday July 11

    China CPI, PPI, aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans and money supply

    Japan core machine and tool orders

    Tuesday July 12

    China trade surplus

    Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey

    (6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB small business economic trends survey for June.

    Earnings include: PepsiCo Inc.

    Wednesday July 13

    Euro zone industrial production

    Germany CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s census household data for 2021

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for June. The Street is projecting an increase of 1.1 per cent from May and up 8.8 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement and monetary policy report (with press conference to follow).

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for June.

    Earnings include: Cogeco Inc.; Cogeco Communications Inc.; Delta Air Lines Inc.; Progressive Corp.

    Thursday July 14

    Japan industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for May. Estimates are declines of 2.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent from April, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s construction investment for May.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of July 9. Estimate is 235,000, unchanged from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI Final Demand for June. Consensus is a rise of 0.8 per cent from May and 10.8 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Cintas Corp.; First Republic Bank; Goodfood Market Corp.; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Morgan Stanley; Theratechnologies Inc.

    Friday July 15

    China GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

    Japan department store sales and tertiary industry index

    Euro zone trade deficit

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for May.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for May. Estimate is a year-over-year decline of 8.5 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for May.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales for June. Estimate is a decline of 25 per cent year-over-year with average prices rising 4 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for June. Consensus is an increase of 0.9 per cent from May.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for June. The Street expects a rise of 0.7 per cent month-over-month and 11.3 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS home price index for June. Estimate is an increase of 16.5 per cent from the same period a year ago.

    (9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for June. Consensus is unchanged from May with capacity utilization sliding 0.3 per cent to 80.5 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for May. The Street expects an increase of 1.1 per cent from April.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment for May.

    Also: G20 finance ministers and governors meeting in Jakarta (through Saturday).

    Earnings include: Bank of NY Mellon; Blackrock Inc.; Citigroup Inc.; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; State Street Corp.; UnitedHealth Group Inc.; U.S. Bancorp.; Wells Fargo & Co.

  • Rogers customers reporting service outages across Canada

    Rogers customers reporting service outages across Canada

    Rogers Communications Inc customers across Ontario and in other areas across the country were reporting outages Friday morning.

    According to online tracker Downdetector Canada, there were more than 20,000 reports as of 6:45 a.m. Users were reporting problems related to internet, TV and Wi-Fi connections.

    Rogers outages reported on the online tracker site Downdetector Friday.
    Rogers outages reported on the online tracker site Downdetector Friday. PHOTO BY DOWNDETECTOR

    While the highest concentration came from Ontario, there were also reports of outages in Montreal, Winnipeg and Edmonton.

    Early this morning Toronto police tweeted that some people would have trouble calling 911 because of Rogers’ technical difficulties.

    The outages also appeared to be impacting Interac and wholesale re-sellers of Rogers services, the CBC reported.

    Rogers did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

    Additional Reporting by Reuters

  • Japan’s former PM Shinzo Abe dies from injuries after being shot

    Japan’s former PM Shinzo Abe dies from injuries after being shot

    • Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan, died Friday after being shot.
    • The former prime minister was shot while delivering a speech in the city of Nara, near Kyoto.
    • The incident has sent shockwaves through Japan, a country where gun violence is extremely rare.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/japans-former-pm-shinzo-abe-dies-from-injuries-after-being-shot-nhk-reports.html

  • European markets close 2% higher; UK’s Johnson resigns as prime minister

    European markets close 2% higher; UK’s Johnson resigns as prime minister

    • Investors were digesting the latest Fed minutes, in which the central bank’s officials reiterated a tough stance against inflation.
    • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned on Thursday, after more than 50 resignations from his government in light of a string of scandals.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/european-markets-open-to-close-fed-minutes-data-and-earnings.html

  • Crescent Point Energy raising quarterly dividend again

    Crescent Point Energy raising quarterly dividend again

    Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG-T +13.19%increase is raising its quarterly dividend after announcing it has sold off some of its non-core assets and reached its net debt target ahead of schedule.

    The Calgary-based oil company announced Thursday it has completed the sale of its non-core Viking and East Shale Duvernay assets for $300 million.

    Crescent Point says proceeds from the sale of the assets, which include approximately 4,000 barrels of oil production per day, are being used to pay down the company’s debt.

    In a news release, Crescent Point said continued improvement in the company’s financial position and outlook will allow it to increase its shareholder returns. On a quarterly basis and beginning in the third quarter of 2022, Crescent Point will target the return of up to 50 per cent of its discretionary excess cash flow to shareholders.

    The company said it will now make a base quarterly payment to shareholders of eight cents per share. The new dividend will be paid on Oct. 3 to shareholders of record on Sept. 15.

    In May, Crescent Point raised its quarterly dividend to 6.5 cents per share from 4.5 cents.

    Like all Canadian oil producers, Crescent Point is benefiting from a surge in commodity prices in 2022. Crescent Point expects to generate more than $1.4 billion of excess cash flow in 2022, of which it said approximately $775 million will be realized during the second half of the year based on the presumption of a West Texas Intermediate price of approximately US$100 per barrel.

    Crescent Point also updated its environmental targets Thursday, saying it is now targeting a 38 per cent reduction from 2020 levels in Scope One and Two greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 2030. The company also announced a goal to reduce surface freshwater use in Saskatchewan by 25 per cent by 2025 and said it is on track to reduce its inactive well count by 30 per cent by 2031.

  • Millions tested in Shanghai as China grapples COVID-19 resurgence

    Millions tested in Shanghai as China grapples COVID-19 resurgence

    Millions of people in Shanghai queued for a third day of mass COVID-19 testing on Thursday as authorities in several Chinese cities scrambled to stamp out new outbreaks that have rekindled worries about growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

    Unless local officials succeed in preventing the virus from spreading, they could be compelled to invoke prolonged, major restrictions on residents’ movement, under China’s “dynamic zero COVID” strategy.

    The country’s most populous city, Shanghai, has just emerged from a painful two-month lockdown and is again on high alert – racing to isolate infections linked to karaoke services that had been taking place illegally.

    Shanghai reported 54 new locally transmitted COVID cases for Wednesday, versus 24 the previous day. More than 70 cases confirmed in recent days are linked to the karaoke joints, authorities said.

    Overall, mainland China reported 338 new local COVID cases for Wednesday, down from 353, with no new deaths, numbers that most countries would now consider insignificant.

    But China’s approach of rigorously stamping out outbreaks as they occur has residents wary of more of the kind of restrictions that have caused mental stress and financial hardship for many, disrupted global supply chains and overseas trade, and rattled financial markets.

    “A resurgence of Omicron is not an issue in most other countries, but it remains a predominant issue for the Chinese economy,” Nomura analysts wrote in a note, referring to the highly transmissible COVID variant.

    As China is “by far the largest manufacturing centre in the world, any new waves of Omicron are likely to have a non-negligible impact”, they added.

    Shanghai, China’s commercial hub, ordered most of its 25 million residents to take two compulsory COVID tests between Tuesday and Thursday.

    Residents of the city frequently take self-administered tests in order to enter shopping malls or travel on public transport, and they also have to take part in city-wide testing every weekend till end-July.

    Another 50 residential compounds and venues were locked down on Thursday in Shanghai, taking the total to 81.

    Around half of China’s 338 new cases were in the eastern Anhui province where more than 1 million people in small towns are locked down.

    In Beijing, four new infections were reported, down from six the previous day.

    The capital has mandated that from July 11 most people entering crowded venues, such as libraries, cinemas and gyms, will have to have been vaccinated.

    After finding one COVID case involving someone who had arrived from Shanghai, the town of Xinjiang in the northern Shanxi province tested almost its entire 280,000 population, suspended taxis, ride hailing and bus services, and closed various entertainment venues.

    In a different province, Shaanxi, which reported four new cases, the cultural and tourism authority requested travel agencies to cancel group tours in its capital Xian, famed for its Terracota Army.

    China has justified its uncompromising coronavirus strategy by saying it is saving lives and is worth the “temporary” economic costs. Officials have contrasted the millions of COVID-linked deaths around the world with China’s reported death toll of 5,226 since the start of the pandemic 2-1/2 years ago.

    Analysts warn, however, that some costs may become permanent if China’s debt burden increases and if curbs lead to investors and foreign talent reconsidering their presence in the country.

    Premier Li Keqiang was quoted by state media on Thursday as saying that China’s economy is recovering but the foundation of that recovery is not solid and hard work is still needed.

    China is planning to set up a 500 billion yuan ($75 billion)state infrastructure fund to revive the economy, two people with knowledge of the matter have told Reuters.

  • Canada to enter ‘moderate and short-lived’ recession in 2023, RBC economists warn

    Canada to enter ‘moderate and short-lived’ recession in 2023, RBC economists warn

    The Canadian economy will slip into a “moderate and short-lived” recession in 2023 as it copes with rising interest rates and lofty inflation, Royal Bank of Canada warned on Thursday.

    The recession won’t be as severe as previous downturns, but will see consumers pull back on spending as they deal with the strongest price growth in decades, higher costs of borrowing and the loss of wealth, stemming from a slowdown in the housing market, the RBC report said.

    Canadians will also be affected by job losses, sending the national unemployment rate – now at a record low of 5.1 per cent – to around 6.6 per cent, the bank estimates.

    The Bank of Canada and its global peers are aggressively raising interest rates, aimed at curbing demand and knocking down inflation. Canada’s annual inflation rate hit 7.7 per cent in May, the highest since 1983. The consensus view on Bay Street is that the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next week to 2.25 per cent.

    As monetary policy tightens, global investors are betting that it results in a recession, which has led to a selloff in stock markets and lower prices for commodities, such as crude oil. RBC is the first of Canada’s major lenders to predict the country will enter a recession in the near term.

    In an April forecast, the Bank of Canada said the economy would grow 4.2 per cent this year and 3.2 per cent in 2023, after adjustments for inflation. The central bank will issue a new forecast on Wednesday, alongside its rate decision. Private-sector forecasters have been pencilling in slower rates of growth as the inflation threat lingers.

    “When you’re at the top of the hill the only way to go is down. Canada’s economic growth has fired on all cylinders following pandemic shutdowns,” wrote RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan in their report. “But a historic labour squeeze, soaring food and energy prices and rising interest rates are now closing in. Those pressures will likely push the economy into a moderate contraction in 2023.”

    The authors noted that higher interest rates were “necessary to tame inflation” and that a downturn “can be reversed once inflation settles enough for central banks to lower rates” again.