Author: Consultant

  • More parts of China battle Covid and threats of lockdown as cases spike again

    More parts of China battle Covid and threats of lockdown as cases spike again

    • The number of cities restricting local movement due to Covid more than doubled in a week to 11 as of Monday, up from five a week earlier, according to Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.
    • Many of the new cases are in the region around Shanghai.
    • Last week, a small region called Si county in the neighboring province of Anhui ordered residents to stay in their homes, and leave only at designated times for virus testing.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/more-parts-of-china-battle-covid-and-threats-of-lockdown-as-cases-spike.html

  • Home sales, prices in Toronto and Vancouver plunge from last year’s highs

    Home sales, prices in Toronto and Vancouver plunge from last year’s highs

    Home sales in Toronto and Vancouver plunged in June from last year’s highs and property prices declined further as higher borrowing costs made it harder for would-be buyers to get into the country’s two priciest real estate markets.

    In the Toronto region, home resales dropped 41 per cent over June of last year, and were down 4.7 per cent from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). In the Vancouver region, resales fell 35 per cent year over year and were 16 per cent lower than May, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

    The home price index, which adjusts for price volatility, fell in both areas. In the Toronto region, the index fell 4.5 per cent to $1,204,900 from May to June, the third consecutive month of declines, with the steepest losses in the city’s suburbs. Since the peak in March, the typical home price across the region is down 9.7 per cent, according to TRREB data. In Halton, a wealthy suburb to the west of the city, the home price index is down 16 per cent from the peak in February.

    In Ontario, real estate buyers are holding out for a price cut

    Buyer activity wanes in Toronto-area real estate market

    “Buyers are holding out waiting for a better deal,” said Felicia Jones, a broker with The Jones Group, who has sold homes in the Toronto region for nearly a decade. “But then we have sellers on the other side that haven’t quite shifted their minds. The value of today is not yesterday’s value or the maximum value of three months ago,” she said.

    The price of a mortgage has doubled over the past year and is expected to become more expensive when the Bank of Canada raises interest rates yet again to help curb inflation. The jump in the benchmark interest rate from 0.25 per cent to 1.50 per cent over the past four months has slowed real estate activity across the country.

    Realtors said that their clients either can’t afford today’s mortgage rates or, if they can afford the higher borrowing costs, they are waiting for home prices to drop further. At the same time, sellers refuse to accept lower prices after observing nearby homes fetching record prices in the first few months of this year.

    The Toronto suburbs and less populated cities throughout Ontario had recorded some of the steepest price gains when interest rates were near zero. Those areas are now seeing some of the biggest declines.

    Although fewer homeowners put their properties up for sale in June compared with the previous month, homes are taking longer to sell. In Toronto, the number of new listings remained steady month to month. In Vancouver, new listings declined.

    TRREB said it expects current market conditions to remain in place during the slower summer months. Its president, Kevin Crigger, expects some buyers to re-enter the market once home prices stop falling.

    In the Vancouver area, the home price index fell 2 per cent to $1,235,900 from May to June and was down 2.2 per cent over the past three months, according to the Vancouver board. Semi-detached houses shouldered the biggest price decline.

    The typical price of a detached house in the Vancouver area was down 1.7 per cent to $2,058,600 from May to June. Semi-detached houses were down 2.2 per cent to $1,115,600 over the same period and condos fell 1.7 per cent to $766,300.

    “Rising interest rates and inflationary concerns are making buyers more cautious in today’s housing market, which is allowing listings to accumulate,” Vancouver board chair Daniel John said in a press release, adding that the decline in home prices was a result of the drop in home-buying activity, not the increase in supply.

  • Oil prices bounce back from Tuesday tumble as supply concerns return

    Oil prices bounce back from Tuesday tumble as supply concerns return

    Oil prices rose as much as nearly 3% on Wednesday before paring some gains as investors piled back into the market after a heavy rout in the previous session, with supply concerns returning to the fore even as worries about a global recession linger.

    Brent crude futures rose as much as $3.08, or 2.9%, to $105.85 a barrel in early trade after plunging 9.5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily drop since March. It was last up $1.25, or 1.3%, at $104.10 per barrel.

    U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a session high of $102.14 a barrel, up $2.64, or 2.7%, after closing below $100 for the first time since late April. It was last up 60 cents, or 0.6%, at $100.10 per barrel.

    “Today is sort of a reset. No doubt there is short covering and bargain hunters are coming in,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC.

    “The fundamental story regarding global tightness is still there… The sell-off was definitely overdone,” he added.

    OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said on Tuesday that the industry was “under siege” due to years of under-investment, adding shortages could be eased if extra supplies from Iran and Venezuela were allowed.

    Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev also warned that a reported proposal from Japan to cap the price of Russian oil at around half its current level would lead to significantly less oil in the market and push prices above $300-$400 a barrel.

    On the other hand, the Norwegian government on Tuesday intervened to end a strike in the petroleum sector that had cut oil and gas output, a union leader and the labor ministry said, ending a stalemate that could have worsened Europe’s energy crunch.

    By Saturday, the strike would have cut daily gas exports by 1,117,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe), or 56% of daily gas exports, while 341,000 of barrels of oil would have been lost, the Norwegian Oil and Gas (NOG) employers’ lobby said.

    Worries about a recession, however, have continued to weigh on markets. By some early estimates, the world’s largest economy may have shrunk in the three months from April through June. That would be the second straight quarter of contraction, considered the definition of a technical recession.

    More G10 central banks raised interest rates in June than in any month for at least two decades, Reuters calculations showed. With inflation at multi-decade highs, the pace of policy-tightening is not expected to let up in the second half of 2022.

    “Although crude oil still faces the problem of a supply shortage, key factors that led to the sharp selloff in oil yesterday remain,” said Leon Li, a Shanghai-based analyst at CMC Markets. He cited policy tightening by global central banks and a likely interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve as pressuring commodities prices.

    “Thus, today’s rebound could be a short-term correction for bears and oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near future.”

  • These Canadian banks are now among Citi’s top global stock picks

    These Canadian banks are now among Citi’s top global stock picks

    Morgan Stanley U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson is looking for lower earnings forecasts to signal a durable market bottom,

    “Over the past few weeks, interest rates have fallen sharply as the economic data continue to disappoint. Meanwhile, the S&P equity risk premium has also risen to 340 basis points, closer to our fair value level of 370bps. This is a necessary condition for a more durable low in equity prices, but until earnings estimates are cut to more reasonable levels or valuations reflect that risk, the bear market is not complete, in our view… several leading signals point to forward earnings expectations decelerating in the coming months from these elevated levels. Importantly, earnings revisions breadth, which often leads forward dollar EPS, is in negative territory and has decelerated further in the last few days/weeks … Generally, we find that defensive industries (Telecom, Utilities, Insurance, Real Estate, parts of Staples and Healthcare) screen relatively well when assessed on this basis. Meanwhile, we find that cyclical tech groups (Tech Hardware and Semis) screen as having higher risk on this basis. We also find that several consumer oriented groups (Food & Staples Retailing, Consumer Services, and Consumer Durables and Apparel) as well as Transports screen as being more at risk based on this framework.”

    “MS: Sectors most at risk of downward earnings revisions” – (research excerpt) Twitter

    ***

    Citi strategist Chris Montagu manages a World Radar stock screen methodology combining valuation and momentum in terms of stock price, earnings and cash flow growth.

    Canadian bank stocks dominate the list of stocks that have moved into the top decile of MSCI World index members that have jumped into the first decile of attractiveness by Citi’s criteria.

    Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank benefited from attractive relative valuation, while Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada climbed into the top decile thanks primarily to relative stock price momentum.

    “MSCI World stocks climbing to top decile in Citi’s World Radar screen” – (table) Twitter

    ***

    BofA Securities U.S. equity strategist Savita Subramanian detailed the market carnage from the first half of the year and made strategic recommendations,

    “The S&P 500 officially ended the post-COVID bull market in 1H, down more than 20% from its peak (see Hello, bear market report). The 20% decline in 1H (total returns) was the worst since 1962 (-22%) and the second worst start to the year in our data history since 1935. Historically, a negative 1H has led to a negative 2H 44% of the time, vs. just 19% when 1H was positive … Of the 45 factors we track, dividend yield was the only factor that gained in 1H, +0.7%. As we shift from a price return to a total return world – dividends have driven 36% of total returns since 1936 vs. just 15% since 2010 – and cash grows more valuable amid Fed hiking, we expect dividend yield and bird-in-the-hand strategies to continue to outperform in 2H. The Russell 1000 Value outperformed the Growth index by 15ppt in 1H, on track to be the biggest lead since the Tech Bubble. But despite the de-rating in Growth stocks, they still trade one standard deviation above the historical average vs. Value, with positioning also still tilted towards Growth (see report). High Quality stocks (‘B+ or better’ in S&P quality ratings) led Low Quality stocks (‘B or worse’) by 12ppt YTD in 1H, marking the biggest lead since 2002. We expect volatility to remain elevated in 2H, which should continue to drive High Quality’s lead.”

    “BofA: “we expect dividend yield and bird-in-the-hand strategies to continue to outperform in 2H.”” – (research excerpt) Twitter

    ***

  • Greater China stocks lead losses as Covid concerns resurge; Asia-Pacific markets fall

    Greater China stocks lead losses as Covid concerns resurge; Asia-Pacific markets fall

    • Greater China stock indexes led losses as Covid concerns resurge, while Asia-Pacific markets traded lower on Wednesday.
    • U.S. stock indexes initially fell sharply on Tuesday stateside before rallying in the afternoon.
    • In central bank news, Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to release its monetary policy statement today. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the bank to raise rates by 25 basis points.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/asia-markets.html

  • Oil prices slip as recession fears rumble on, tight supply stems losses

    Oil prices slip as recession fears rumble on, tight supply stems losses

    • Brent crude futures slipped 35 cents, or 0.3%, to $111.28 a barrel at 0016 GMT, having jumped 2.4% on Friday.
    • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures similarly dropped 32 cents, or 0.3%, to $108.11 a barrel, after climbing 2.5% on Friday.
    • While recession fears have weighed on the market over the past two weeks, supply concerns linger, preventing steeper price falls.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/04/oil-markets-recession-supply-opec-russia.html

  • Bank regulator beefs up rules for some types of home loans

    Bank regulator beefs up rules for some types of home loans

    Canada’s top banking regulator is changing the rules that cover certain types of home loans to make sure that lenders and borrowers are able to stay on top of their obligations at a time when the country’s housing market is looking vulnerable.

    The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OFSI) is implementing new guidelines for certain types of real estate loans, including shared equity mortgages, reverse mortgages and conventional mortgages that are paired with revolving credit lines.

    The biggest change targets so-called combined loans, which are conventional mortgage loans paired with revolving lines of credit known as HELOCs that home owners can dip into as they see fit, without being obligated to pay that portion back on any sort of schedule.

    The new regulations will kick in once a readvanceable loan exceeds 65 per cent of the underlying home’s value. Currently, an owner can technically borrow up to 80 per cent on such a loan, but the new rules will functionally ratchet that ceiling down to 65 per cent by forcing the borrower to start paying back some of the principal if they go above that line.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osfi-rule-changes-1.6504148

  • Economic Calendar July 4

    Economic Calendar July 4

    Monday July 4

    U.S. markets closed for holiday.

    (930 am ET) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Canada for June.

    (1030 am ET) Bank of Canada second quarter Business Outlook Survey of Consumer Expectations

    North American auto sales (tentative date)

    Euro area producer price index

    Tuesday July 5

    China Caixin PMI for June. A contraction number of 49.0 is expected. Purchasing Managers Indexes also due from Euro area and the UK.

    Australia monetary policy meeting

    STORY CONTINUES BELOW ADVERTISEMENT

    (830 am ET) Canada building permits for May. They are expected to fall 1.5%.

    (10 am ET) U.S. factory orders for May. Consensus is for a 0.5% rise.

    Earnings include: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust

    Wednesday July 6

    China foreign reserves for June.

    Euro area retail sales for May; Germany factory orders for May. UK Construction PMI.

    (945 am ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite final PMI for June.

    (10 am ET) US ISM Services PMI for June. Consensus is an expansionary reading of 54.9.

    (10 am ET) U.S. job openings and labor turnover survey for May.

    (2 pm ET) U.S. FOMC Minutes from June 14-15 meeting.

    Thursday July 7

    ECB Minutes from June 9 meeting

    Germany production for May.

    (830 am ET) Canada merchandise trade balance for May. A $2.5-billion surplus is forecast, up from $1.5-billion in April.

    (10 am ET) Canada Ivey PMI for June.

    (730 am ET) U.S. Challenger Layoff Report for June

    (815 am ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for June.

    (830 am ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for previous week

    (830 am ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit.

    Earnings include: Aritzia Inc; Levi Strauss & Co; MTY Food Group Inc; Richelieu Hardware; Postmedia Network

    Friday July 8

    China money supply and new yuan loans data for May. Chinese CPI for June scheduled for Saturday.

    Japan household spending and current account.

    (830 am ET) Canada employment report for June. BMO forecasts net job gains of 25,000, with the unemployment rate improving one notch to 5%. Average hourly wages are forecast to rise 4.5% from a year ago.

    (830 am ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June. Consensus is for a net gain of 250,000 jobs, down from May’s job growth of 390,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings expected to rise 5% from a year ago.

    (10 am ET) U.S. wholesale inventories.

    (3pm ET) U..S. consumer credit for May.

  • Banks block online sale of cash ETFs that compete with bank savings products

    Banks block online sale of cash ETFs that compete with bank savings products

    Some of Canada’s largest banks are blocking online investors from buying high-interest-savings exchange traded funds, which compete with the banks’ own lucrative deposit accounts.

    The discount brokerage arms at Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal and Toronto-Dominion Bank do not allow do-it-yourself investors to purchase high-interest-savings ETFs, also known as cash ETFs, or HISA ETFs.The funds, which are run by independent asset managers, mainly invest in pools of banks’ high-interest savings accounts and deposits.

    Investing in high-interest-savings ETFs offers investors liquidity,whereas the equivalent products at banks– savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates – may have locked-in investment horizons, and can be slow to react to rising interest rates.

    Mark Noble, executive vice-president of ETF Strategy at Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., said the company has never been able to get clear answers about why its HISA ETFs have not been listed to trade on the discount brokerages at some banks.

    Canadian ETFs: The latest launches and terminations

    “Historically, we have never seen a discount brokerage in Canada choose to not have an ETF listed on their platform,” Mr. Noble said. “Investors can buy an inverse bitcoin fund, a cannabis fund or two-times leveraged funds without any barriers. But then are being told they are not able to purchase a cash ETF. It is as low risk as you can get.”

    Dan Hallett, vice-president and principal with HighView Financial Group, said he finds it surprising that do-it-yourself investors aren’t able to buy low-risk cash ETFs at certain discount brokerages, even as “risky, leveraged ETFs have proliferated for more than a decade.”

    “Discount brokerages that restrict access are allowing access only to their own proprietary savings accounts, which generally pay a lower interest rate than the net rate available from most cash ETFs,” he said. “In other words, they’re not allowing clients to invest in those cash ETFs so that they can raise more, cheaper deposit capital.”

    Currently, there are six cash ETFs in Canada. They are: the Horizons Cash Maximizer ETF (HSAV-T), the Horizons High Interest Savings ETF (CASH-T), the CI High Interest Savings ETF (CSAV-T), the Purpose High Interest Savings ETF (PSA-T), the Evolve High Interest Savings Account Fund (HISA-NEO) and the Ninepoint High Interest Savings Fund ETF Series (NSAV-NE).

    Management expense ratios for the category range between 0.05 per cent and 0.39 per cent, andthe funds provide gross yield, before fees, of about 1.95 per cent.

    RBC spokesperson Kathy Bevan said in an e-mail that decisions about product selection on the bank’s discount trading platform are “carefully considered and reviewed regularly.” Any client who is interested in short-term retail deposits, she said, can access an RBC investment savings account, which is not a bank account but rather a short-term cash account that is available to all RBC Direct Investing customers.

    TD spokesperson Derek Kirk confirmed that TD Direct Investing – Canada’s largest discount brokerage – does not allow clients to trade HISA ETFs. Instead, he said, TD directs clients to its TD investment savings accounts, which are CDIC-insured bank accounts.

    Bank of Montreal spokesperson Jeff Roman confirmed in an e-mail that the bank does not sell HISA ETFs. For investors interested in savings, he added, the bank “currently offersa CDIC insured high interest savings account” through its advisory and self-directed channels.

    With rising interest rates, HISA ETFs have begun to see a bump in assets. In Canada, they have recorded more than $1.6-billion in sales in the first half of the year, according to data provided by National Bank Financial. HISA ETFs had $7.8-billion in total assets under management as of June 30.

    In comparison, high-interest savings accounts in Canada had about $541-billion in assets as of December, 2021, according to research provided by Investor Economics, a unit of ISS Market Intelligence. The Big Six banks account for over 75 per cent of that business.

    Another $588-billion sits in guaranteed investment certificates, a type of savings product that typically provides locked-in rates for set periods of time. GICs are one of the fastest growing product categories in today’s interest rate environment, according to Carlos Cardone, senior managing director at Investor Economics. Almost half of the balance held in GICs is at the Big Six banks.

    Mr. Cardone said that while growth in high-interest savings accounts slowed to about 5 per cent in 2021, as investors chased higher returns in the stock markets, early evidence suggests that more recent market volatility may have resulted in much faster savings-account growth in recent months.

    “The product category had been in net redemptions since rates dropped early in the pandemic and is now staging a major comeback,” Mr. Cardone added.

    Mr. Hallett said most banks were slow to raise their rates this year on certain savings accounts as interest rates climbed, because of the large captive audience in those products.

    “They would have likely responded sooner had they actually been competing with each other and these ETFs,” he said.