Author: Consultant

  • CHINA ECONOMY

    China’s ‘Silicon Valley’ manufacturing hub orders production halts to control a Covid spike

    China’s ‘Silicon Valley’ manufacturing hub orders production halts to control a Covid spike

    PUBLISHED MON, MAR 14 202212:31 AM EDT

    BEIJING — Mainland China is facing its worst Covid-19 outbreak since the country clamped down on the pandemic in 2020, with major cities rushing to limit business activity.

    Shenzhen, the biggest city in the manufacturing hub of Guangdong province, told all businesses not involved with essential public services to suspend production or have employees work from home for a week starting Monday. The production halts reportedly include Apple supplier Foxconn, which did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

    The city, sometimes called China’s “Silicon Valley,” has shut public transportation and begun a third city-wide round of testing. Shenzhen has reported more than 400 confirmed cases since late February.

    Those numbers and case counts across China pale in comparison with other countries. But the rapid increase in cases in the last few days has local authorities rushing to control the outbreak as China seeks to maintain its zero-Covid strategy.

    Shanghai, the coastal metropolis home to many foreign businesses and financial firms in China, has reverted schools to online classes. Some neighborhoods have entered lockdown and conducted mass testing, and residents typically cannot leave until results come back negative.

    The city on Saturday told residents not to leave Shanghai unless absolutely necessary. More than 600 confirmed cases have been found since late February.WATCH NOWVIDEO03:08Two years into the pandemic, will we need a fourth shot?

    Jilin province in northern China reported an overnight surge this past weekend of over 1,000 new locally transmitted coronavirus cases, for a total of more than 2,900 cases this month as of Sunday.

    In all, mainland China reported 1,437 new confirmed cases as of Sunday — with only 100 attributed to travelers from overseas — for a total of 8,531 domestically transmitted active cases. That’s the most since March 2020. No new deaths have been reported.

    Hong Kong, a special administrative region just across the border from Shenzhen, has fought a resurgence of Covid cases in the last few weeks. The region has the highest number globally of new Covid-related deaths per million people, according to Our World in Data.

    Hong Kong’s outbreak stems from the highly transmissible omicron variant, which has since spread to the mainland.

    Beijing city on alert

    The capital city of Beijing said Sunday it identified six sources of transmission for the latest handful of municipal cases, mostly reported around the downtown and eastern parts of the city. Local authorities said anyone returning to Beijing must not attend gatherings for seven days following arrival.

    For months the capital has had one of the strictest Covid control policies in the country. Travelers must show a negative Covid test taken 48 hours before entering Beijing, and take another test within 72 hours of arrival. If their 14-day travel history shows they visited a locale with a confirmed case, they are not allowed into the city.

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    After the emergence of Covid-19 in Wuhan in late 2019, mainland China shut down more than half the country in February 2020 to control the outbreak. Domestically, the virus came under control within weeks, but Covid had spread overseas in a global pandemic.

    As of Monday, South Korea followed by Germany have the highest 28-day new case counts at 5.2 million and 4.8 million, respectively, according to Johns Hopkins data. The U.S. has recorded the most deaths, at more than 967,000 as of Monday morning Beijing time.

    Zero-Covid isn’t going away

    Mainland China has maintained a strict “zero-Covid” policy for the last two years. The travel restrictions and potential for swift lockdowns have weighed on domestic tourism and services businesses, dragging down consumer spending.

    An annual parliamentary meeting that wrapped up Friday gave no signs that the central government plans to loosen its Covid control policy, although official statements in recent months have added terms such as “dynamic.”

    Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said at a government meeting for epidemic control Saturday that the country should keep following the “dynamic” zero-Covid policy and that all measures should be taken to prevent a large-scale virus resurgence.

    Her remarks, as published by state media, ended with a call to prepare the way for a top meeting of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this year. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to receive an unprecedented third term at the meeting.

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    Abandoning zero-Covid “now could be perceived as conceding that the strategy did not work in the first place,” Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu said in a note Friday.

    “The next 12 months are a crucial time for the one-in-a-decade leadership change, which is pushing top leaders to stick to the status quo in order to avoid making policy mistakes,” he said. “Pictures of many Hong Kong Covid patients treated outside overwhelmed hospitals have further convinced Chinese officials and the masses that ZCS is China’s only viable solution to the coronavirus.”

    China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention published a study in November that said shifting to the coexistence strategy of other countries would likely result in hundreds of thousands of new daily cases and devastate the national medical system.

    But, Lu said, the economic costs of the zero-Covid strategy are rising, while the benefits are diminishing.

    “Amid rounds of lockdowns and travel bans across China,” he said, “more individuals are feeling the pinch, becoming worn out, unemployed or underemployed, and have drained their savings to a level at which they have to reduce spending.”

  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index drops more than 2% in mixed Asia trading; oil prices fall 3%

    Investors will continue to monitor developments around the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid wave in China, both of which threaten to further disrupt global supply chains.

    SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Monday morning trade as investors monitor a Covid wave in China. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to be volatile amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 2.77% in morning trade as shares of Chinese tech heavyweight Tencent fell 3.43%. Mainland Chinese stocks were also lower, with the Shanghai composite down 1.5% while the Shenzhen component shed 1.46%.

    In Japan, the Nikkei 225 climbed 1.03% while the Topix index advanced 0.97%. The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia gained 1.07%.

    South Korea’s Kospi lagged, dipping 0.54%.

    MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.99% lower.

    Investors continued watching developments on the Russia-Ukraine war, which is disrupting shipping and air freight. Elsewhere, markets also monitored a recent wave of Covid infections in China — including the major city of Shenzhen.

    Oil prices fall 3%

    Oil prices fell in the morning of Asia trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures down 3.03% to $109.26 per barrel. U.S. crude futures shed 3.16% to $105.87 per barrel.

    Oil prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict have spiked to record levels but fell back in the past week on supply hopes, before rising again to close out the week. Over in Asia, China, India, Japan and South Korea are all major importers of oil, according to 2020 data from the International Energy Agency.

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    The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a rate hike later this week, the first such move since 2018.

    In Asia, the Bank of Japan is also set to announce its monetary policy decision later in the week.

    Currencies

    The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 99.049 after its recent bounce from below 98.

    The Japanese yen traded at 117.66 per dollar after last week’s weakening from below 116 against the greenback. The Australian dollar was at $0.7275 after slipping from above $0.732 late last week.

  • Calendar: March 14, 2022

    Economic Calendar Mar 14 – Mar 18, 2022

    Monday March 14

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for January.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for January. Estimate is a rise of 0.5 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Hardwoods Distribution Inc.; Pollard Banknote Ltd.

    Tuesday March 15

    China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

    Euro zone industrial production

    (8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for February. The Street is forecasting an annualized rate increase of 2.4 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for January. Estimates are month-over-month increases of 1.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI final demand for February. Consensus is a rise of 0.9 per cent from January and up 9.9 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canadian existing home sales for February. Estimate is a year-over-year decline of 7 per cent with average prices rising 20.5 per cent.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for February. Estimate is a rise of 28.0 per cent from the same period a year ago.

    Earnings include: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.; Intertape Polymer Group Inc.

    Wednesday March 16

    Japan trade balance and industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for February. Consensus is a rise of 0.9 per cent from January and up 5.5 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for January. Estimate is an increase of 3.5 per cent from December.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for February. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.4 per cent from January.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for February. Consensus is a month-over-month increase of 1.5 per cent and up 11.2 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for March.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for January.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement with chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

    Earnings include: Largo Resources Ltd.; Osisko Mining Corp.

    Thursday March 17

    Japan core machine orders

    Euro zone CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. weekly initial jobless claims. Estimate is 218,000, down 9,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for February. Consensus is annualized rate rise of 3.8 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for February.

    (9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for February.

    Earnings include: Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd.; Canoe EIT Income Fund; Endeavour Mining Corp.; MDA Ltd.; Nexus REIT; North West Company Inc.; Power Corp. of Canada

    Friday March 18

    Japan CPI

    Euro zone trade deficit and labour costs

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for January. The Street is projecting a rise of 2.4 per cent from December.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s New Housing Price Index for February. Estimate is a rise of 2.5 per cent from January and 12.5 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for February. Consensus is an annualized rate drop of 5.0 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for February. Estimate is a rise of 0.3 per cent from January.