Author: Consultant

Monday December 16

China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

Japan core machine orders and PMI

Euro zone PMI and labour costs

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for November. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 4.5 per cent.

(9 a.m. ET) Canadian existing home sales and average prices for November. Estimates are year-over-year increases of 30.0 per cent and 8.0 per cent, respectively.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for November. Estimate is a decline of 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for December (preliminary reading)

(3:20 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade.

Also: Canada’s federal fall fiscal update

Earnings include: Quipt Home Medical Corp.

—

Tuesday December 17

Euro zone trade surplus

Germany business climate

U.K. employment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for November. The Street is expecting a rise of 0.1 per cent from October and up 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian population estimates for Q3.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for November. Estimate is a flat reading month-over-month and year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for November. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.5 per cent from October.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for November. Consensus is a month-over-month increase of 0.3 per cent with capacity utilization up 0.2 per cent to 77.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for October.

Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins

Earnings include: Groupe Dynamite Inc.

—

Wednesday December 18

Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (through Thursday)

Euro zone and U.K. CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for November. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 2.6 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for November. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 0.8 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. current account deficit for Q3.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement and summary of economy projections with chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

Earnings include: General Mills Inc.; Lennar Corp.; Micron Technology Inc.

—

Thursday December 19

Germany consumer confidence

Bank of England monetary policy announcement

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey: job vacancy rate for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s household and mortgage credit for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Dec. 14. Estimate is 228,000, down 14,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP price index for Q3. The Street expects annualized rate increases of 2.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for November. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 3.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for November.

Earnings include: Accenture PLC; BlackBerry Ltd.; Cintas Corp.; FedEx Corp.; Nike Inc.

—

Friday December 20

Japan CPI

Euro zone consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for October. Consensus is an increase of 0.7 per cent from September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for November. The Street is projecting month-over-month rises of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for November. Consensus is a gain of 0.2 per cent from October and 2.9 per cent from the same period a year ago.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December.

Earnings include: Carnival Corp.

• The producer price index increased 0.4% for November, higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.2%.
• However, excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.2%, meeting the forecast.
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, versus the 220,000 forecast and up 17,000 from the prior period.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/producer-price-index-november-2024-.html

Published Wed, Dec 11 20249:22 PM EST Updated 32 Min Ago

Oil prices fell slightly Thursday as a forecast for ample supply in the oil market offset optimism stemming from rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut.

Brent crude futures fell 11 cents to close at $73.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 27 cents to settle at $70.02. Both benchmarks rose by more than $1 on Wednesday.

The International Energy Agency said it expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied next year, even as it revised its demand outlook for next year up slightly. OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month on Wednesday and by the largest amount yet.

“They still call for a massively oversupplied market, but this has declined slightly with their demand revision,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. “The market is waiting for more news on fiscal measures around the world, I wouldn’t expect big price moves in the near term.”

In the U.S., inflation rose slightly, in line with economists’ expectations. Investors are broadly expecting another rate cut from the Federal Reserve, spurring some optimism about economic growth and energy demand.

“The inflation report creates a lot of comfort. It could have been better, but it seems to be low enough for the Fed to reduce rates at the next meeting,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

In the world’s top oil consumer, the United States, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by more than expected last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Weak demand, particularly in top importer China, and non-OPEC+ supply growth were two factors behind the move. However, investors anticipate a rise in Chinese demand, after Beijing unveiled plans this week to adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in 2025, which could spur oil demand.

Global oil demand rose at a slower-than-expected rate this month, but has remained resilient, analysts at JPMorgan said in a note on Thursday.

“Growth (in oil demand) over the past week has been tempered by a slight reduction in jet fuel consumption across much of the world,” the note read.

Chinese crude imports also grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14% from a year earlier.

The market will now watch for cues on interest rate cuts by the Fed next week.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after European Union ambassadors agreed to a 15th package of sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine. They targeted the “shadow fleet” of ships that has aided Russia in bypassing the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by the G7 on Russian seaborne crude oil in 2022.

The Kremlin said that reports of a possible tightening of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil suggested the administration of President Joe Biden wanted to leave a difficult legacy for U.S.-Russia relations.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that the U.S. was continuing to look for creative ways to reduce Russia’s oil revenue, adding that lower global demand for oil created an opportunity for more sanctions.

Imperial provides 2025 corporate guidance outlook | Business Wire

mperial (TSE: IMO, NYSE American: IMO) today provided an update on its corporate guidance outlook for 2025. The company’s strategy remains focused on maximizing the value of its existing assets and progressing advantaged high-value growth opportunities while delivering industry-leading returns to shareholders.

“Our 2025 plan builds on our momentum and positions the company to achieve even stronger operating performance with higher volumes and lower unit cash costs¹ at Kearl and Cold Lake,” said Brad Corson, chairman, president and chief executive officer. In the Downstream, a lighter turnaround schedule supports higher refinery throughput year-over-year, and start-up of the Strathcona Renewable Diesel project is expected to increase product sales.

“Our strategic investments and continued focus on profitable volume growth, lowering costs and driving efficiencies have enhanced Imperial’s ability to increase free cash flow¹ over a range of business conditions,” Corson added.

Capital and exploration expenditures² are forecasted to range between $1.9 to $2.1 billion. In the Upstream, key investments support volume growth, including technology to increase bitumen recovery and mine progression work at Kearl, as well as completion of the Leming redevelopment project and high-value drilling opportunities at Cold Lake. Downstream investments include completion of the Strathcona renewable diesel project, with start-up expected around mid-year, and additional optimization initiatives that enhance logistics and processing flexibility across the network.

In the Upstream, production is forecasted to grow to between 433,000 and 456,000 gross oil equivalent barrels per day. Higher volume reflects continued growth at Kearl, the first full-year contribution from Grand Rapids at Cold Lake, as well as other optimization initiatives. The Leming redevelopment project, using steam-assisted gravity drainage recovery technology, is expected to start up late in the year and primarily contribute to 2026 and beyond.

In the Downstream, throughput is forecasted to be between 405,000 and 415,000 barrels per day with capacity utilization between 94% and 96%. The company is planning turnarounds at each of its refineries in 2025, with lower expected impacts to throughput and costs compared to 2024. Imperial continues to focus on further improving its advantaged Canadian downstream business by leveraging its coast-to-coast logistics network to efficiently move product to high-value markets, maximizing refinery crude and product slate flexibility to improve resiliency and further developing its lower-carbon product offering to meet the needs of customers across Canada.

Imperial remains committed to supplying secure, reliable and affordable energy to Canadians, including reducing emissions intensity. “I’m extremely confident in our ability to deliver value to our shareholders leveraging the ingenuity and hard work of the Imperial workforce and our high-quality assets,” said Corson.

¹ Non-GAAP financial measure, non-GAAP financial ratio – see supplemental information for definition and reconciliation

Monday December 9

China CPI, PPI, aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans, trade surplus and foreign reserves

Japan real GDP and bank lending

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for October.

Earnings include: North West Co. Inc.

—

Tuesday December 10

Japan machine tool orders

Germany CPI

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity and unit labor costs for Q3. The Street is forecasting annualized rate increases of 2.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively.

Earnings include: AutoZone Inc.; Evertz Technologies Ltd.

—

Wednesday December 11

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for November. The consensus projection is a rise of 0.3 per cent from October and 2.8 per cent year-over-year.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement with press conference to folllow.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for November.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc.; Lennar Corp.; Macy’s Inc.; TerraVest Industries Inc.; Transcontinental Inc.

—

Thursday December 12

ECB monetary policy meeting

Germany trade surplus

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s national balance sheet and financial flow accounts for Q3.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Dec. 7. Estimate is 220,000, down 4,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI Final Demand for November. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent from October and up 2.7 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q3.

Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Costco Wholesale Corp.; Empire Co. Ltd.; Enghouse Systems Ltd.; Oracle Corp.

—

Friday December 13

Japan large manufacturing outlook and industrial production

U.K. consumer confidence, GDP, industrial production and trade deficit

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s capacity utilization for Q3.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders. Estimates are month-over-month increases of 1.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for October. Estimate is a gain of 0.5 per cent from October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for October. Estimate is a year-over-year rise of 8.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for November. The Street is projecting a decline of 0.2 per cent from October and a rise of 1.0 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: Wall Financial Corp.

• Tech investor and podcaster David Sacks will join the Trump administration as the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar.”
• “David will focus on making America the clear global leader in both areas,” Trump wrote in social media post on Thursday.

Venture investor and podcaster David Sacks will join the Trump administration as the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar,” President-elect Donald Trump announced on Truth Social on Thursday.

Sacks will guide the administration’s policies for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, Trump wrote. Some of that work includes creating a legal framework for crypto, as well as leading a presidential council of advisors on science and technology.

“David will focus on making America the clear global leader in both areas,” Trump wrote. “He will safeguard Free Speech online, and steer us away from Big Tech bias and censorship.”

The appointment signals that the second Trump administration is rewarding Silicon Valley figures who supported his campaign. It also indicates that the administration will push for policies that cryptocurrency entrepreneurs generally support.

Sacks became a major Trump booster earlier this year, hosting a fundraiser for the then-Republican nominee at his San Francisco mansion. Tickets sold for $50,000 a head, with a $300,000 tier that included perks like a photo with Trump.

It was a stark change of tone for Sacks, who was sharply critical of Trump after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Sacks said on an episode of his All-In podcast soon after that Trump was “clearly” responsible for the events of Jan. 6, and that he had “disqualified himself from being a candidate at a national level.”

In July, Sacks spoke at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Sacks is a venture capitalist and entrepreneur who sold Yammer, to Microsoft for $1.2 billion in 2012. He’s also affiliated with the “PayPal mafia,” an unofficial club of prominent technology figures and investors, including Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who worked at PayPal in the 1990s.

In recent years, Sacks has been best known for hosting the All-In podcast alongside fellow investors Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, and David Friedberg. In his post, Trump called it the “top podcast in Tech, where he and his friends discuss economic, political and social issues.”

BMO Financial Group raised its quarterly dividend as it reported a fourth-quarter profit of $2.30 billion, boosted by the reversal of a 2022 jury verdict against the bank in a lawsuit related to a Ponzi scheme in the United States.

The bank says it will now pay a quarterly dividend of $1.59 per share, up from $1.55 per share.

The increase came as BMO says it earned $2.94 per diluted share for the quarter ended Oct. 31, up from a profit of $1.71 billion or $2.19 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue totalled $8.96 billion, up from $8.32 billion in the same quarter last year, while its provision for credit losses rose to $1.52 billion compared with $446 million a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BMO says it earned $1.90 per diluted share in its latest quarter, down from an adjusted profit of $2.93 per diluted share a year ago.

The average analyst estimate had been for an adjusted profit of $2.41 per share, according to data provided by LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 5, 2024.

TD Bank Group reported a fourth-quarter profit of $3.64 billion, up from $2.87 billion in the same quarter last year, boosted by the sale of part of its stake in the Charles Schwab Corp.

The bank says its profit amounted to $1.97 per diluted share for the quarter ended Oct. 31, up from $1.48 per diluted share a year earlier.

TD said it sold 40.5 million Schwab shares in August when it also announced it would take a provision related to U.S. investigations into its anti-money laundering program. The bank agreed in October to pay fines totalling more than $4.23 billion after pleading guilty to multiple charges related to its failings.

On an adjusted basis, TD says it earned $1.72 per diluted share in its latest quarter, down from an adjusted profit of $1.82 per diluted share a year earlier.

Analysts on average had expected an adjusted profit of $1.82 per share, , according to data provided by LSEG Data & Analytics.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $15.51 billion, up from $13.18 billion in the same quarter last year, while TD’s provision for credit losses for the quarter totalled $1.11 billion, up from $878 million in its fourth quarter last year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 5, 2024.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce raised its quarterly dividend as it reported a fourth-quarter profit of $1.88 billion, up from $1.49 billion in the same quarter last year.

CIBC says it will now pay a quarterly dividend of 97 cents per share, up from 90 cents.

The increase in the payment came as the bank says it earned $1.90 per diluted share for the quarter ended Oct. 31, up from a profit of $1.53 per diluted share a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $6.62 billion, up from $5.85 billion in the same quarter last year, while CIBC’s provision for credit losses amounted to $419 million, down from $541 million a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, CIBC says it earned $1.91 per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of $1.57 per diluted share a year ago.

The average analyst estimate had been for an adjusted profit of $1.79 per share, according to data provided by LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 5, 2024.