Author: Consultant

  • Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected

    • The producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, increased 0.1% on the month, less than 0.2% forecast. PPI excluding food and energy was flat.
    • On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI rose 2.2%, a sharp drop from the 2.7% reading in June.

    A key measure of wholesale inflation rose less than expected in July, opening the door further for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

    The producer price index, which measures selling prices that producers get for goods and services, increased 0.1% on the month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core PPI was flat.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2% on both the all-items and the core readings.

    A further core measure that also excludes trade services showed a rise of 0.3%.

    On a year-over-year basis, the headline PPI increased 2.2%, a sharp drop from the 2.7% reading in June.

    Stock market futures rose following the news while Treasury yields moved lower.

    The wholesale inflation reading was relatively tame despite a 0.6% jump in final demand goods prices, the biggest move higher since February and due primarily to a 1.9% surge in energy, including a 2.8% increase in gasoline.

    Countering the move was a 0.2% slide in services, the biggest move lower since March 2023, according to the BLS. Trade services prices fell 1.3% while margins for machinery and vehicles wholesaling tumbled 4.1%. An increase of 2.3% in portfolio management offset some of the decline in services prices.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/13/producer-price-index-july-2024.html

  • Aug 12: Oil extends gains for fifth session on Middle East tensions, U.S. data

    Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive session on Monday, extending gains from the previous week’s more than 3 per cent rise, as U.S. recession fears eased and Middle East supply risks provided support.

    Brent crude futures were up 88 cents, or 1.1 per cent, at $80.54 a barrel by 1319 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.06, or 1.38 per cent, to $77.90.

    “Support is coming from last week’s better than expected U.S. data, which eased fears of a U.S. recession,” said IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore.

    “There is also a great deal of anxiety about when Iran might look to avenge Israel’s assassination of key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Feels like a matter of when, not if.”

    Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate for the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.

    “The market is still waiting for Iran’s response,” said Warren Patterson, ING’s head of commodities research.

    In addition, the Israeli incursion into Gaza intensified on Saturday when an air strike on a school compound killed at least 90 people, according to the Gaza Civil Emergency Service, though Israel said the death toll was inflated. Hamas cast doubt on its participation in new ceasefire talks on Sunday.

    Brent gained 3.7 per cent last week while WTI rose by 4.5 per cent, buoyed by economic data and increased hopes of a cut to U.S. interest rates.

    Three U.S. central bankers said last week that inflation appeared to be cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as next month.

    China’s consumer prices rose faster than expected in July, and U.S. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week.

    On Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region next to Ukraine after Kyiv increased military activity near the border only days after its biggest incursion into sovereign Russian territory since the start of the war in 2022.

    Undermining price support, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, citing weaker than expected data for the first half of the year and softer expectations for China. It also trimmed its expectations for next year.

  • Canada’s Tourmaline Oil to acquire Crew Energy for $1.3-billion

    Canada’s Tourmaline Oil TOU-T +3.04%increase said on Monday it will acquire Crew Energy in a $1.3-billion all-stock deal, which includes debt, to boost its presence in the Montney shale play in Alberta.

    The shale formation, which spans northern Alberta and British Columbia, accounts for roughly half of Canada’s gas production, and is one of the country’s most attractive energy-producing regions due to its strong economics.

    Crew Energy shareholders will receive 0.114802 Tourmaline shares for every share of Crew Energy held, valuing the deal at about $6.69 per Crew share, representing a premium of around 72 per cent over Friday’s closing prices.

    The company said the acquisition, which is expected to close in early October, will add over $200-million to Tourmaline’s projected 2025 free cash flow.

    The Crew assets are immediately adjacent to Tourmaline’s existing South Montney-operated complex.

    The deal includes existing low decline average base production of 29,000-30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), and proved and probable reserves of 473.2 million barrels of oil, Tourmaline said.

    The company said it has raised its average production outlook for the current year to 582,500-592,500 boepd from 575,000– 585,000 boepd if the deal closes as expected.

    The Calgary-based company also authorized an increase in the quarterly dividend to 35 cents per share in the third quarter, from 33 cents per share.

  • Barrick Gold reports US$370M Q2 profit, up from US$305M a year ago

     Barrick Gold Corp. reported its second-quarter profit rose compared with a year ago, helped by higher gold and copper prices.

    The miner, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says it earned US$370 million or 21 cents US per diluted share for the quarter ended June 30, up from US$305 million or 17 cents US per diluted share a year earlier.

    Revenue totalled US$3.16 billion, up from US$2.83 billion in the same quarter last year.

    Barrick’s realized gold price for the quarter amounted to US$2,344 per ounce, up from US$1,972 a year ago, while its realized copper price was US$4.53 per pound, up from US$3.70 in the same quarter last year.

    Gold production totalled 948,000 ounces for the quarter, down from 1,009,000 ounces a year earlier, while copper production amounted to 43,000 tonnes, down from 48,000 tonnes in the same quarter last year.

    On an adjusted basis, Barrick says it earned 32 cents US per share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 19 cents US per share.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 12, 2024.

  • Rail shutdown possible in two weeks, as lockout warnings follow labour board ruling

    Canada’s railways could fully shut down in less than two weeks after the national labour tribunal ruled rail work does not amount to an essential service.

    In a pair of decisions Friday, the Canada Industrial Relations Board said a work stoppage would pose no “serious danger” to public health or safety, despite concerns around food security, fuel supply and water treatment.

    Consequently, in the event of a work stoppage, employees at Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. would not be compelled to continue hauling goods, including key commodities such as chlorine for water and propane for care centres.

    The ruling comes as the clock ticks down on talks between Canada’s two main railways and their employees.

    The tribunal ordered a 13-day cooling-off period as part of the ruling. If new contracts can’t be reached in that window, countrywide strikes by 9,300 conductors, engineers and yard workers could occur as early as Aug. 22, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference said.

    A work stoppage at least one railway is all but guaranteed if no collective agreement is secured by then. Canadian Pacific said late Friday afternoon it would lock out its employees one minute after midnight on Aug. 22 unless a deal is secured.

    “CPKC is committed to continuing good faith negotiation throughout,” the company said in a statement.

    Shippers and producers say the potential job action at CN or CPKC – or both simultaneously – would halt freight traffic, clog ports and disrupt industries.

    In May, then-labour minister Seamus O’Regan asked the industrial relations board to review whether a work stoppage would jeopardize Canadians’ health and safety after union members voted overwhelming to approve a strike mandate. Friday’s ruling effectively “places the parties back in the position they were in” before the ministerial referral, the board wrote.

    “There is no doubt that a work stoppage at CN would result in inconvenience, economic hardship and, possibly, as some groups and organizations have suggested, harm to Canada’s global reputation as a reliable trading partner,” the tribunal said in a unanimous decision.

    However, the question of what constitutes an essential service under the Canada Labour Code is “very narrow,” it continued.

    “The board is satisfied that, at this time, a strike or lockout at CN would not pose an immediate and serious danger to the safety or health of the public.”

    The tribunal came to the same conclusion in a separate ruling concerning Canadian Pacific.

    Sticking points at the bargaining table boil down to crew scheduling, fatigue management and safety, said Teamsters spokesman Christopher Monette. The union has rejected binding arbitration with both companies.

    Each side says the other has made excessive demands that led to a weeks-long bargaining impasse.

    Canadian railways haul some $380 billion worth of goods and more than half of the country’s total exports each year, according to the Railway Association of Canada.

    Anxiety over a strike by thousands of employees has already cost the two railways some business after some customers started to reroute cargo following the union’s strike mandate authorization on May 1.

    Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon, who replaced O’Regan after the latter resigned from cabinet three weeks ago, said the two sides need to hash out a deal themselves rather than rely on government intervention, such as back-to-work legislation.

    “I call upon the parties to stay at the bargaining table and continue holding productive and substantive discussions that meet the needs of this moment. A negotiated agreement is the best way forward,” he said in a statement Friday.

    The stance differed from that pushed by industry – the players most frustrated by Friday’s ruling – in a message to the prime minister.

    “We are writing to urge you to immediately intervene and do everything necessary to avert a disruption,” stated the joint letter from 70-plus industry groups and 40 chambers of commerce.

    The organizations warned that a prolonged stoppage would strangle the goods pipeline, drive up prices and aggravate affordability problems for businesses and individuals, on top of the risk of furloughs at companies forced to suspend operations.

    Commuters could also feel the effects of a work stoppage.

    Should one occur involving the 80 CPKC rail traffic controllers negotiating for a contract – distinct from CPKC’s main bargaining group – passenger trains that run on Canadian Pacific-owned tracks in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal could shut down.

    Manufacturers would face back-ups right away, said Dennis Darby, CEO of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters.

    “You pay penalties because you’re delayed delivery,” he said in an interview.

    “Canadians don’t realize how integrated our manufacturing sector is and how small the inventories are. That’s why stuff is moving all the time.”

    Bob Masterson, CEO of Chemistry Industry Association of Canada, called the tribunal decision “disappointing.”

    “There’s no plan B,” said Masterson, whose organization represents producers of plastics and chemicals.

    About 80 per cent of the sector’s $100 billion in annual shipments relies on rail transport, much of it going to U.S. auto makers but plenty bound for Canadian municipalities that need chlorine to disinfect drinking water, he said.

    “The government has asked us, ‘What about trucks?’ No. 1, what trucks? We already have a driver shortage,” he said in an interview.

    One railcar amounts to three trucks’ worth of commodities, he said. “And every day we move 530 railcars. So somehow, at short notice, we’re going find 1,500 to 2,000 more trucks to carry our product, as well as everybody else trying to? That’s just not possible at all.”

  • Calendar: Aug 12 – Aug 16

    Monday, Aug 12

    830 am ET: Canada building permits for June. BMO expects a 10% rise, rebounding from May’s 12.2% decline

    2 pm ET: U.S. budget balance

    Earnings include: Barrick Gold, Sun Life Financial, Ballard, Extendicare

    Tuesday, Aug 13

    Germany ZEW business expectations survey. UK June payrolls report

    6 am ET: U.S. NFIB small business economic trends survey for July

    830 am ET: U.S. producer price index for July. Consensus is for a monthly increase of 0.2%

    Earnings include: Franco-Nevada, Cargojet, Home Depot, HudBay Minerals, Silvercorp Metals, Superior Plus, Algoma Streel, Northwest Healthcare, Minto Apartment REIT, Dream Unlimited, AutoCanada

    Wednesday, Aug 14

    Euro area GDP for the second quarter, and June industrial production. France and the UK release July inflation reports

    830 am ET: U.S. consumer prices for July. Consensus is for a 0.2% monthly increase, or 2.9% from a year earlier – slightly lower than June’s 3.0% rise. Excluding food and energy, it’s expected to be up 3.3% from a year ago

    Earnings include: Tencent, Cisco, UBS Group, Hydro One, Metro, Northland Power, H&R REIT, Chorus Aviation, CAE

    China industrial production and retail sales for July. Japan GDP for the second quarter and June industrial production

    UK GDP for the second quarter, plus the latest services index, industrial production and trade deficit

    830 am ET: Canada wholesale trade for June

    830 am ET: Canada new motor vehicle sales for June

    830 am ET: U.S. retail sales for July. Consensus is for a 0.4% rise, or 0.2% when excluding autos and gas

    830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims for last week. BMO forecasts an increase of 7,000

    830 am ET: U.S. import prices for July. BMO expects a 1.5% increase from a year ago

    830 am ET: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index and Empire State manufacturing data

    9 am ET: Canada existing home sales for July. BMO expects a 3% annual rise. Average prices are seen gaining 0.5% from a year ago, following June’s reading that saw a 1.6% decline. Also, MLS home price index

    915 am ET: U.S. industrial production for July. Consensus is for a 0.2% decline

    10 am ET: U.S. NAHB housing market index

    10 am ET: U.S. business inventories

    Earnings include: Walmart, Alibaba, Deere & Co, Macy’s

    Friday Aug 16

    Euro area trade surplus for June. UK retail sales for July

    815 am ET: Canada housing starts for July. BMO expects a 1.4% rise to an annualized rate of 245,000

    830 am ET: Canada manufacturing sales and new orders for June

    830 am ET: Canada international securities transactions inflows and outflows for June

    830 am ET: U.S. housing starts and building permits for July

    10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August

  • Saputo reports $142M Q1 profit, revenue up nearly 10% from year ago

     Saputo Inc. reported a profit of $142 million in its latest quarter as its revenue rose nearly 10 per cent compared with a year ago.

    The cheese and dairy company says the profit amounted to 33 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended June 30 compared with a profit of $141 million or 33 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

    Revenue totalled $4.61 billion for what was the first quarter of the company’s 2025 financial year, up from $4.21 billion in the same quarter last year.

    On an adjusted basis, Saputo says it earned 39 cents per diluted share for its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 36 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

    The company says the results reflected a continued solid performance by its Canadian business, meaningful improvements in the U.S. and higher sales volumes across its operations.

    Saputo chair and CEO Lino Saputo says the company remains optimistic heading into the balance of the year as it continues to make progress on its strategic plan.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 9, 2024.

  • Linamar Delivers Another Quarter of Outstanding Double-Digit Growth and Announces CEO Succession

    Linamar is announcing today that Jim Jarrell has been appointed Chief Executive Officer and President, following execution of a multi year succession transition plan. Mr. Jarrell succeeds Linda Hasenfratz, who will remain a driving force at Linamar focusing exclusively now on her role as Executive Chair.

    Read more at newswire.ca

  • Pembina Pipeline earns $479 million in second quarter, ups full-year forecast

    Pembina Pipeline Corp. says it earned $479 million in its second quarter of this year, a 32-per-cent increase over the same period in 2023.

    The Calgary-based pipeline company says its earnings work out to 75 cents per common share, compared to 60 cents in the second quarter of 2023.

    Pembina’s revenue increased to $1.85 billion in the second quarter, up from $1.42 billion in the same period last year.

    The company reported pipeline volumes of 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an 11-per-cent increase year-over-year due in part to Pembina’s recent $3.1 billion purchase of Enbridge Inc.’s stakes in the Alliance pipeline and Aux Sable gas processing facility.

    Pembina says it is expecting annual growth of approximately six per cent for its conventional pipeline volumes and four per cent in its gas processing volumes, thanks to what it calls “strong momentum” in the Canadian energy sector.

    On Thursday, Pembina Pipeline increased its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to between $4.20 billion and $4.35 billion, up from a previously forecasted range of $4.05 to $4.30 billion.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 8, 2024.