Author: Consultant

  • Why Canada is on the verge of an unprecedented rail labor stoppage

    For the first time, Canada’s two main railway companies – Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City – are on the verge of a simultaneous labour stoppage that could inflict billions of dollars’ worth of economic damage.

    Why are both companies poised to stop?

    Contract talks between the Teamsters union and the companies usually take place a year apart, but in 2022, after the federal government introduced new rules on fatigue, CN requested a year-long extension to its existing deal rather than negotiate a new one.

    This meant both companies’ labour agreements expired at the end of 2023 and talks have been ongoing since. As a result, for the first time, the failure of negotiations would halt the vast majority of the Canadian freight rail system.

    The Teamsters represent around 10,000 members who work as locomotive engineers, conductors, train and yard workers and rail traffic controllers at the two companies in Canada.

    What is likely to happen next?

    The companies say they will start locking out workers in the early hours of Thursday if they cannot reach a deal, while the union says it is ready to call a strike for that day. CPKC has already given formal notice of a lockout.

    CPKC, created in 2023 through a merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, has a U.S. and Mexican network which it says will operate normally. CN also says trains on its U.S. network will run.

    That said, a strike will still lead to shipment disruptions south of the border. Both rail operators and some of their U.S. competitors have begun to refuse certain cross-border cargoes that would rely on the CN and CPKC networks.

    CPKC has said it would halt new rail shipments originating in Canada, and new U.S. shipments destined for Canada starting Aug. 20, if talks with the Teamsters union in Canada fail to progress.

    The railways move grain, autos, coal and potash, among other shipments.

    What are the sides arguing about?

    The union says CPKC wants “to gut the collective agreement of all safety-critical fatigue provisions,” meaning crews will be forced to stay awake longer, boosting the risk of accidents.

    CPKC says its offer maintains the status quo for all work rules, “fully complies with new regulatory requirements for rest and does not in any way compromise safety.”

    The Teamsters say CN wants to implement a forced relocation provision, which would see workers ordered to move across Canada for months at a time to fill labour shortages.

    CN says it has made four offers this year on wages, rest, and labour availability while remaining fully compliant with government-mandated rules overseeing duty and rest periods.

    What can the federal government do?

    Under article 107 of the federal labour code, Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon has broad powers and can order the sides to enter binding arbitration. In 2023, his predecessor, Seamus O’Regan, issued such an order to end a dockworkers strike in British Columbia. In that case, unlike the current rail dispute, the sides had largely agreed on the outlines of a deal.

    MacKinnon rejected a request last week by CN for binding arbitration, urging the sides instead to put in more effort at the negotiating table.

    What happens if the union strikes?

    If the Teamsters call a strike, the government can introduce back-to-work legislation forcing them to resume work. The previous federal Conservative government did that in 2012 to end a walkout by Canadian Pacific workers.

    The current Liberal government though, has shown little interest in such a move in past disputes, preferring the sides to focus on negotiations. A complicating factor is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is being kept in power by the left-leaning New Democrats, who have traditionally enjoyed strong union support.

  • Aug 16: TSX Ends Higher Again

    The Canadian market ended slightly up on Friday, moving up for a seventh straight session, with gains in the materials sector contributing to the positive close.

    Easing concerns about U.S. economic growth and continued optimism about interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve helped underpin sentiment.

    The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up by 21.89 points or 0.1% at 23,054.61. The index moved in a tight band between 22,984.44 and 23,070.60. The index gained about 3.3% in the week.

    Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.TO), Sprott Inc (SII.TO), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO), Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV.TO), Morguard Corporation (MRC.TO) and Canadian Tire Corporation gained 1 to 2.2%.

    Celestica Inc (CLS.TO), Cogeco Communications (CCA.TO), West Fraser Timber (WFG.TO), Toromont Industries (TIH.TO), Precision Drilling Corporation (PD.TO), Stella-Jones (SJ.TO), TerraVest Industries (TVK.TO), EQB Inc (EQB.TO), FFI International (TIF.TO), Cargojet Inc (CJT.TO) and Waste Connections (WCN.TO) ended weak by 1 – 2.6%.

    On the economic front, data from Canada Mortgage And Housing Corporation said housing starts in Canada surged by 16% over a month to 279,500 units in July, the highest since June 2023.

    A report from Statistics Canada showed manufacturing sales declined 2.1% month-over-month in June 2024, compared to the preliminary estimate of a 2.6% fall, following a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in the previous month.

  • Aug 16: Gold Futures Settle Higher On Weak Dollar, Rising Rate Cut Hopes

    Gold prices moved higher on Friday thanks to a weak dollar and rising hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Escalating tensions in the Middle East contributed as well to the yellow metal’s gains.

    The dollar index dropped to 102.55, down nearly 0.5% from the previous close.

    Gold futures for August ended up by $45.50 or about 1.85% at $2,498.60 an ounce. Gold futures gained 2.73% in the week, recording their 3rd successive weekly gain.

    Silver futures for August ended up $0.436 or about 1.54% at $28.778 an ounce. Silver futures gained about 4.7% in the week.

    Copper futures for August dropped to $4.1140 per pound, down $0.0250 from the previous close.

    Markets are now pricing in just a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point cut by the Federal Reserve next month, down from 55% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    In economic news today, preliminary data released by the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. has improved by more than expected in the month of August.

    The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 67.8 in August after falling to 66.4 in July. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 66.9.

    On the inflation front, the report said year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations were both unchanged from the previous month at 2.9% and 3%, respectively.

    Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department said housing starts plunged by 6.8% to an annual rate of 1.238 million in July after jumping by 1.1% to a revised rate of 1.329 million in June.

    Economists had expected housing starts to slump by 1.7% to an annual rate of 1.330 million from the 1.353 million originally reported for the previous month.

  • Calendar: Aug 19 – Aug 23

    Monday August 19

    Japan core machine orders

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for June.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for June.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for July. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.3 per cent.

    (10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q2.

    Earnings include: Estee Lauder Companies Inc.; Palo Alto Networks Inc.

    Tuesday August 20

    Euro zone CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for July. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.4 per cent from June and up 2.5 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for July. Estimate is a decline of 0.2 per cent month-over-month and down 0.4 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Lowe’s Companies Inc.

    Wednesday August 21

    Japan trade deficit

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for July. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. preliminary release of annual payrolls benchmark revision.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed minutes released from July 30-31 calendar

    Earnings include: Analog Devices Inc.; Macy’s Inc.; Target Corp.; TJX Companies Inc.

    Thursday August 22

    Japan machine tool orders and PMI

    Euro zone PMI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 17. Estimate is 235,000, up 8,000 from the previous week.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for August.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for July. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent on an annualized rate basis.

    Also: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (through Saturday)

    Earnings include: Canoe EIT Income Fund; Dollar Tree Inc.; Intuit Inc.; Toronto-Dominion Bank

    Friday August 23

    Japan CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for June. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.3 per cent (or 0.4 per cent excluding automobiles).

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for July. Consensus is an annualized rate increase of 2.3 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY

    Earnings include: Canadian Net REIT

  • RBC, TD to pay millions to settle U.S. SEC charges over recordkeeping violations

    RBC and TD Bank Group have agreed to pay tens of millions of dollars in penalties after being charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over recordkeeping violations.

    RBC Capital Markets has agreed to pay US$45 million. Various TD divisions, including its recently acquired Cowen and Co., have agreed to pay a US$46.5 million penalty to the SEC plus a total of US$82 million to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

    The two banks are among 26 financial institutions that the SEC announced Wednesday had together agreed to pay about US$393 million along with implementing improvements to compliance policies.

    The enforcement action is related to the use of electronic communications through text messages and other alternative channels that weren’t being preserved as required.

    The regulator says it found “pervasive” levels of off-channel communications at the two banks, both between employees and with clients.

    RBC said in a statement it was pleased to have resolved the matter and remains focused on upholding all regulatory requirements. TD said it co-operated fully with regulators and that it’s enhancing its electronic communications policies and procedures.

    The penalties are part of a wider enforcement effort by U.S. regulators over communications methods that has led to over US$1.2 billion in penalties, including past payments made by Scotiabank and the Bank of Montreal.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 15, 2024.

  • U.S. crude oil falls more than 2% as Qatar prime minister urges Iran to hold off on Israel attack

    • Qatar’s prime minister told Iran’s leader to refrain from attacking Israel while Gaza cease-fire negotiations are ongoing in Doha, according to The Washington Post.
    • The talks are set to resume Friday.

    U.S. crude oil futures fell 3% on Friday amid reports that Qatar told Iran to not attack Israel while Gaza cease-fire talks are ongoing.

    Qatar’s prime minister told Iran’s leaders in a phone call after the first day of Gaza cease-fire talks in Doha Thursday that they should de-escalate, warning of the consequences of attacking Israel when progress is being made in the negotiations, two diplomats told The Washington Post.

    Here are Friday’s energy prices:

    • West Texas Intermediate September contract: $76.13 per barrel, down $2.02, or 2.58%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 6.2%.
    • Brent September contract: $79.15 per barrel, down $1.91, or 2.36%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 2.7%.
    • RBOB Gasoline September contract: $2.31 per gallon, down 4 cents, or 1.81%. Year to date, gasoline is up 10.2%.
    • Natural Gas September contract: $2.16 per thousand cubic feet, down 3 cents, or 1.32%. Year to date, gas is down 13.7%.

    The cease-fire talks were paused Friday, with negotiations expected to meet again next week.

    The U.S. benchmark jumped more than 4% on Monday on fears that an attack by Iran on Israel was drawing closer. Iran has vowed to retaliate over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran in late July.

    Prices have subsequently pulled back as an assault has not yet materialized. Worries about softening oil demand in China have also weighed on the market.

    “The pendulum of price influence keeps swinging between fundamentals and geopolitics, with today’s selloff seemingly dictated by negotiations in the Middle East and an ongoing lack of retaliation by Iran,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler.   

  • Consumer spending jumped in July as retail sales were up 1%, much better than expected

    Consumer spending held up even better than expected in July as inflation pressures showed more signs of easing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

    Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, according to numbers that are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase. June sales were revised to a decline of 0.2% after initially being reported as flat.

    Excluding auto-related items, sales increased 0.4%, also better than the 0.1% forecast.

    There was also good news on the labor market front: Initial unemployment benefit claims for the week ending Aug. 10 totaled 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week and lower than the estimate for 235,000.

    Gains in sales were propelled by increases at motor vehicles and parts dealers (3.6%), electronics and appliance stores (1.6%) and food and beverage outlets (0.9%). Miscellaneous retailers saw a plunge of 2.5% while gas stations saw receipts climb just 0.1% and clothing stores were down 0.1%.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/retail-sales-july-2024-.html

  • Franco-Nevada: Q2 Earnings Snapshot

    Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV) on Tuesday reported second-quarter earnings of $79.5 million.

    On a per-share basis, the Toronto-based company said it had profit of 41 cents. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 75 cents per share.

    The results fell short of Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 78 cents per share.

    The precious metals streaming and royalty company posted revenue of $260.1 million in the period.

    _____

    This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research.

    Access a Zacks stock report on FNV at https://www.zacks.com/ap/FNV

  • US: Annual inflation rate slows to 2.9% in July, lowest since 2021

    Inflation rose as expected in July, driven by higher housing-related costs, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that is likely to keep an interest rate cut on the table in September.

    The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 3%.

    Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3.2% annual rate, meeting expectations.

    The annual rate is the lowest since March 2021, while the core is the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Headline inflation was 3% in June.

    A 0.4% increase in shelter costs was responsible for 90% of the all-items inflation increase. Food prices increased 0.2% while energy was flat.

    Stock market futures were mildly negative after the report while Treasury yields were mostly higher.

    Though food inflation was soft on the month, multiple categories saw sizeable increases, most notably eggs, which were up 5.5%. Cereals and bakery items declined 0.5% while dairy and related products fell 0.2%.

    Inflation readings have been gradually drifting back to the central bank’s 2% target. A report Tuesday from the Labor Department showed that producer prices, a proxy for wholesale inflation, rose just 0.1% in July and were up 2.2% year over year.

    Fed officials have indicated a willingness to ease, though they’ve been careful not to commit to a specific timetable nor to speculate about the pace at which cuts might occur. Futures market pricing currently points to about an even chance of a quarter- or half-percentage point reduction at the Sept. 17-18 meeting and at least a full point in moves by the end of 2024.

    As inflation has eased, percolating concerns about a slowing labor market seemed to have raised the likelihood that the Fed will start cutting for the first time since the early days of the Covid crisis.

    “Coming down but the sticky areas continue to be sticky,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in describing the CPI report. “We have to keep a close eye on both the inflation data as well as the employment data.”

    There were several crosscurrents in the report that indeed suggest inflation is stubborn in some areas.