Author: Consultant

  • Rail shutdown possible in two weeks, as lockout warnings follow labour board ruling

    Canada’s railways could fully shut down in less than two weeks after the national labour tribunal ruled rail work does not amount to an essential service.

    In a pair of decisions Friday, the Canada Industrial Relations Board said a work stoppage would pose no “serious danger” to public health or safety, despite concerns around food security, fuel supply and water treatment.

    Consequently, in the event of a work stoppage, employees at Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. would not be compelled to continue hauling goods, including key commodities such as chlorine for water and propane for care centres.

    The ruling comes as the clock ticks down on talks between Canada’s two main railways and their employees.

    The tribunal ordered a 13-day cooling-off period as part of the ruling. If new contracts can’t be reached in that window, countrywide strikes by 9,300 conductors, engineers and yard workers could occur as early as Aug. 22, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference said.

    A work stoppage at least one railway is all but guaranteed if no collective agreement is secured by then. Canadian Pacific said late Friday afternoon it would lock out its employees one minute after midnight on Aug. 22 unless a deal is secured.

    “CPKC is committed to continuing good faith negotiation throughout,” the company said in a statement.

    Shippers and producers say the potential job action at CN or CPKC – or both simultaneously – would halt freight traffic, clog ports and disrupt industries.

    In May, then-labour minister Seamus O’Regan asked the industrial relations board to review whether a work stoppage would jeopardize Canadians’ health and safety after union members voted overwhelming to approve a strike mandate. Friday’s ruling effectively “places the parties back in the position they were in” before the ministerial referral, the board wrote.

    “There is no doubt that a work stoppage at CN would result in inconvenience, economic hardship and, possibly, as some groups and organizations have suggested, harm to Canada’s global reputation as a reliable trading partner,” the tribunal said in a unanimous decision.

    However, the question of what constitutes an essential service under the Canada Labour Code is “very narrow,” it continued.

    “The board is satisfied that, at this time, a strike or lockout at CN would not pose an immediate and serious danger to the safety or health of the public.”

    The tribunal came to the same conclusion in a separate ruling concerning Canadian Pacific.

    Sticking points at the bargaining table boil down to crew scheduling, fatigue management and safety, said Teamsters spokesman Christopher Monette. The union has rejected binding arbitration with both companies.

    Each side says the other has made excessive demands that led to a weeks-long bargaining impasse.

    Canadian railways haul some $380 billion worth of goods and more than half of the country’s total exports each year, according to the Railway Association of Canada.

    Anxiety over a strike by thousands of employees has already cost the two railways some business after some customers started to reroute cargo following the union’s strike mandate authorization on May 1.

    Federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon, who replaced O’Regan after the latter resigned from cabinet three weeks ago, said the two sides need to hash out a deal themselves rather than rely on government intervention, such as back-to-work legislation.

    “I call upon the parties to stay at the bargaining table and continue holding productive and substantive discussions that meet the needs of this moment. A negotiated agreement is the best way forward,” he said in a statement Friday.

    The stance differed from that pushed by industry – the players most frustrated by Friday’s ruling – in a message to the prime minister.

    “We are writing to urge you to immediately intervene and do everything necessary to avert a disruption,” stated the joint letter from 70-plus industry groups and 40 chambers of commerce.

    The organizations warned that a prolonged stoppage would strangle the goods pipeline, drive up prices and aggravate affordability problems for businesses and individuals, on top of the risk of furloughs at companies forced to suspend operations.

    Commuters could also feel the effects of a work stoppage.

    Should one occur involving the 80 CPKC rail traffic controllers negotiating for a contract – distinct from CPKC’s main bargaining group – passenger trains that run on Canadian Pacific-owned tracks in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal could shut down.

    Manufacturers would face back-ups right away, said Dennis Darby, CEO of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters.

    “You pay penalties because you’re delayed delivery,” he said in an interview.

    “Canadians don’t realize how integrated our manufacturing sector is and how small the inventories are. That’s why stuff is moving all the time.”

    Bob Masterson, CEO of Chemistry Industry Association of Canada, called the tribunal decision “disappointing.”

    “There’s no plan B,” said Masterson, whose organization represents producers of plastics and chemicals.

    About 80 per cent of the sector’s $100 billion in annual shipments relies on rail transport, much of it going to U.S. auto makers but plenty bound for Canadian municipalities that need chlorine to disinfect drinking water, he said.

    “The government has asked us, ‘What about trucks?’ No. 1, what trucks? We already have a driver shortage,” he said in an interview.

    One railcar amounts to three trucks’ worth of commodities, he said. “And every day we move 530 railcars. So somehow, at short notice, we’re going find 1,500 to 2,000 more trucks to carry our product, as well as everybody else trying to? That’s just not possible at all.”

  • Calendar: Aug 12 – Aug 16

    Monday, Aug 12

    830 am ET: Canada building permits for June. BMO expects a 10% rise, rebounding from May’s 12.2% decline

    2 pm ET: U.S. budget balance

    Earnings include: Barrick Gold, Sun Life Financial, Ballard, Extendicare

    Tuesday, Aug 13

    Germany ZEW business expectations survey. UK June payrolls report

    6 am ET: U.S. NFIB small business economic trends survey for July

    830 am ET: U.S. producer price index for July. Consensus is for a monthly increase of 0.2%

    Earnings include: Franco-Nevada, Cargojet, Home Depot, HudBay Minerals, Silvercorp Metals, Superior Plus, Algoma Streel, Northwest Healthcare, Minto Apartment REIT, Dream Unlimited, AutoCanada

    Wednesday, Aug 14

    Euro area GDP for the second quarter, and June industrial production. France and the UK release July inflation reports

    830 am ET: U.S. consumer prices for July. Consensus is for a 0.2% monthly increase, or 2.9% from a year earlier – slightly lower than June’s 3.0% rise. Excluding food and energy, it’s expected to be up 3.3% from a year ago

    Earnings include: Tencent, Cisco, UBS Group, Hydro One, Metro, Northland Power, H&R REIT, Chorus Aviation, CAE

    China industrial production and retail sales for July. Japan GDP for the second quarter and June industrial production

    UK GDP for the second quarter, plus the latest services index, industrial production and trade deficit

    830 am ET: Canada wholesale trade for June

    830 am ET: Canada new motor vehicle sales for June

    830 am ET: U.S. retail sales for July. Consensus is for a 0.4% rise, or 0.2% when excluding autos and gas

    830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims for last week. BMO forecasts an increase of 7,000

    830 am ET: U.S. import prices for July. BMO expects a 1.5% increase from a year ago

    830 am ET: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index and Empire State manufacturing data

    9 am ET: Canada existing home sales for July. BMO expects a 3% annual rise. Average prices are seen gaining 0.5% from a year ago, following June’s reading that saw a 1.6% decline. Also, MLS home price index

    915 am ET: U.S. industrial production for July. Consensus is for a 0.2% decline

    10 am ET: U.S. NAHB housing market index

    10 am ET: U.S. business inventories

    Earnings include: Walmart, Alibaba, Deere & Co, Macy’s

    Friday Aug 16

    Euro area trade surplus for June. UK retail sales for July

    815 am ET: Canada housing starts for July. BMO expects a 1.4% rise to an annualized rate of 245,000

    830 am ET: Canada manufacturing sales and new orders for June

    830 am ET: Canada international securities transactions inflows and outflows for June

    830 am ET: U.S. housing starts and building permits for July

    10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August

  • Saputo reports $142M Q1 profit, revenue up nearly 10% from year ago

     Saputo Inc. reported a profit of $142 million in its latest quarter as its revenue rose nearly 10 per cent compared with a year ago.

    The cheese and dairy company says the profit amounted to 33 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended June 30 compared with a profit of $141 million or 33 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

    Revenue totalled $4.61 billion for what was the first quarter of the company’s 2025 financial year, up from $4.21 billion in the same quarter last year.

    On an adjusted basis, Saputo says it earned 39 cents per diluted share for its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 36 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

    The company says the results reflected a continued solid performance by its Canadian business, meaningful improvements in the U.S. and higher sales volumes across its operations.

    Saputo chair and CEO Lino Saputo says the company remains optimistic heading into the balance of the year as it continues to make progress on its strategic plan.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 9, 2024.

  • Linamar Delivers Another Quarter of Outstanding Double-Digit Growth and Announces CEO Succession

    Linamar is announcing today that Jim Jarrell has been appointed Chief Executive Officer and President, following execution of a multi year succession transition plan. Mr. Jarrell succeeds Linda Hasenfratz, who will remain a driving force at Linamar focusing exclusively now on her role as Executive Chair.

    Read more at newswire.ca

  • Pembina Pipeline earns $479 million in second quarter, ups full-year forecast

    Pembina Pipeline Corp. says it earned $479 million in its second quarter of this year, a 32-per-cent increase over the same period in 2023.

    The Calgary-based pipeline company says its earnings work out to 75 cents per common share, compared to 60 cents in the second quarter of 2023.

    Pembina’s revenue increased to $1.85 billion in the second quarter, up from $1.42 billion in the same period last year.

    The company reported pipeline volumes of 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an 11-per-cent increase year-over-year due in part to Pembina’s recent $3.1 billion purchase of Enbridge Inc.’s stakes in the Alliance pipeline and Aux Sable gas processing facility.

    Pembina says it is expecting annual growth of approximately six per cent for its conventional pipeline volumes and four per cent in its gas processing volumes, thanks to what it calls “strong momentum” in the Canadian energy sector.

    On Thursday, Pembina Pipeline increased its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to between $4.20 billion and $4.35 billion, up from a previously forecasted range of $4.05 to $4.30 billion.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 8, 2024.

  • Calendar: Aug 5 – Aug 9

    Monday August 5

    Canadian markets closed

    China, Japan and Euro zone services and composite PMI

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services PMI for July.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for July.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for July.

    Earnings include: Berkshire Hathaway Inc.; CSX Corp.; Green Thumb Industries Inc.

    Tuesday August 6

    China trade surplus

    Japan real cash earnings and household spending

    Euro zone retail sales

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for June.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade balance for June.

    (9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for July.

    Earnings include: Airbnb Inc.; Amgen Inc.; Caterpillar Inc.; Dream Industrial REIT; Finning International Inc.; Great-West Lifeco Inc.; IA Financial Corp. Inc.; InterRent REIT; Labrador Iron Ore Royalties Corp.; Nuvei Corp.; Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.; Rivian Automobiles Inc.; Suncor Energy Inc.; Uber Technologies Inc.

    Wednesday August 7

    Germany industrial production and trade surplus

    (1:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations from July 24 meeting.

    (3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for June.

    Earnings include: Canadian Apartment Properties REIT; Crombie REIT; Curaleaf Holdings Inc.; Granite REIT; IGM Financial Inc.; Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. Killam Apartment REIT; Linamar Corp.; Manulife Financial Corp.; Nutrien Ltd.; Pan American Silver Corp.; Shopify Inc.; Stantec Inc.; Stelco Holdings Inc.; Stella-Jones Inc.; Walt Disney Co.; Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

    Thursday August 8

    Japan bank lending

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims from week of Aug. 3. Estimate is 240,000, down 9,000 from the previous week.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale trade for June. Estimate is a gain of 0.4 per cent from May.

    Earnings include: B2Gold Corp.; Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.; CCL Industries Inc.; Chartwell Retirement Residences; Eli Lilly and Co.; goeasy Ltd.; Keyera Corp.; Lundin Gold Inc.; Maple Leaf Foods Inc.; Onex Corp.; Pembina Pipeline Corp.; Power Corp. of Canada; Premium Brands Holdings Corp.; Primo Water Corp.; Quebecor Inc.; Restaurant Brands International Inc.; RioCan REIT; Saputo Inc.; SmartCentres REIT

    Friday August 9

    China CPI, PPI, aggregate yuan loans and new yuan loans

    Germany CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for July. The Street is projecting a month-over-month gain of 0.1 per cent, or 29,400 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

    Earnings include: Algoma Steel Group Inc.; Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.; Constellation Software Inc.; Emera Inc.; MDA Ltd.

  • Aug 8: Oil prices rise as jobless claims fall, market waits for possible Iran strike on Israel

    • West Texas Intermediate has bounced back after crude inventories fell for the sixth week in a row.
    • The oil market is now waiting to see whether Iran will follow through on its threat to strike Israel.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/08/crude-oil-prices-today.html

  • Drop in U.S. weekly unemployment claims calms market fears

    The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, calming fears the labour market was unravelling and reinforcing that a gradual softening remains intact.

    Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, the largest drop in about 11 months. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 claims for the latest week.

    It was a welcome reversal after last week’s surprise sharp jump in jobless claims, and most likely reflects a fading in the impact from temporary motor vehicle plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl. The prior week was revised up slightly to 250,000 from the previously reported 249,000 tally.

    U.S. stocks gained following the release, while benchmark Treasury yields rose back above 4 per cent. The U.S. dollar also strengthened against a basket of currencies.

    “The talk of an imminent recession seems wide of the mark,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

    Investors in interest rate futures contracts pared bets the Federal Reserve will start cutting borrowing costs next month with a bigger-than-usual 50-basis-point reduction to about a 58 per cent probability from 70 per cent before the release.

    Claims have been on a roughly upward trend since June, with part of the rise blamed on volatility related to the motor vehicle plant shutdowns for retooling and disruptions caused by Hurricane Beryl in Texas. Unadjusted claims dropped 13,589 to 203,054 last week.

    Claims fell sharply in Michigan and Missouri, states with a heavy presence of motor vehicle assembly plants which saw claims rise the prior week. Auto makers typically idle assembly lines in July to retool for new models.

    Over the past few weeks overall claims have been hovering near the high end of the range this year, but layoffs remain generally low. Government data last week showed the layoffs rate in June was the lowest in more than two years. The slowdown in the labour market is being driven by less aggressive hiring as the Fed’s interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 dampen demand.

    The Fed also closely monitors how jobless rolls compare to the size of the labour force to gauge the health of the jobs market. Growth in the labour force has largely kept pace with the gradual rise of those claiming jobless relief and is about where it was before the coronavirus pandemic.

    The U.S. central bank last week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25 per cent-5.50 per cent range, where it has been since last July, but policy-makers signalled their intent to reduce borrowing costs at their next policy meeting in September.

    However, the government’s monthly nonfarm payrolls report last Friday showed job gains slowed markedly in July and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent, alarming markets at that point that the labour market may be deteriorating at a pace that would call for strong action from the Fed.

    The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.875 million during the week ending July 27, the claims report showed, continuing an upward trend. That caused some economists to remain wary.

    “Investors have to be careful not to read too much into one report like they did recently with the last payroll report,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “If the data deteriorates quickly from here, the Fed could take more decisive action in September and cut by a half of a per cent.”

    Meanwhile, U.S. wholesale inventories increased in June, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau reported on Thursday, adding to economic growth in the second quarter. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2 per cent in June as previously estimated. Stocks at wholesalers advanced by 0.5 per cent in May.

    Economists polled by Reuters had expected that inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, would rise by an unrevised 0.2 per cent. Inventories edged up 0.1 per cent on a year-on-year basis in June.

    The economy grew at a 2.8 per cent pace in the second quarter. That was double the growth pace in the first quarter. Private inventory investment added 0.82 percentage point to GDP growth in the April-June period after being a drag for the two previous quarters, which more than offset a 0.72 percentage point hit from a wider trade gap.

    Wholesale motor vehicle inventories rose 0.8 per cent in June. Excluding autos, wholesale inventories advanced 0.1 per cent. This component goes into the calculation of GDP.

    Sales at wholesalers fell 0.6 per cent in June after rising 0.3 per cent in May. At June’s sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.37 months to clear shelves, up from 1.35 months in May.

  • Canadian Tire Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results

    SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

    • Consolidated comparable sales were down 4.6%. The consumer demand environment remained challenging, compounded by cold and wet weather, contributing to sales declines in all regions outside Atlantic Canada.
      • CTR comparable sales1 were down 5.6%, compared to growth of 0.1% in Q2 2023. Automotive grew, offset by declines in other divisions.
      • SportChek comparable sales1 were down 0.9%, helped by strong sales of footwear, while cycling and casual clothing experienced the most marked decline.
      • Mark’s comparable sales1 were down 0.8%. Outerwear categories grew, while sales of men’s shorts and accessories and industrial wear were down compared to 2023.

    https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canadian-tire-corporation-reports-second-quarter-2024-results-813902050.html