March Nymex natural gas (NGH24) on Friday closed -0.129 (-7.45%).
Nat-gas prices on Friday closed sharply lower as a shift in U.S. weather forecasts to warmer sent nat-gas prices tumbling. The Commodity Weather Group said “strong warmth” is expected for the mid-western to the eastern parts of the U.S. from March 4-8, reducing heating demand for nat-gas and keeping supplies elevated. U.S. nat-gas prices also had some negative carryover from a fall in European nat-gas prices Friday to a 2-3/4 year low.
Nat-gas prices have collapsed this year and posted a 3-1/2 year nearest-futures low on Tuesday as an unusually mild winter curbed heating consumption for nat-gas and pushed inventories well above average.
Nat-gas prices are also under pressure from the announcement by the Freeport LNG nat-gas export terminal in Texas on January 26 that it was forced to shut down one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of the unit will limit U.S. nat-gas exports and increase U.S. nat-gas inventories.
On Wednesday, nat-gas prices surged to a 1-week high after Chesapeake Energy Corp said it would cut its nat-gas production by about 20% this year due to market conditions. Last month, Chesapeake Energy merged with Southwestern Energy to become the top U.S. nat-gas producer.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Friday was 102.4 bcf/day (+2.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Friday was 81.9 bcf/day (-11.9% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Friday were 13.5 bcf/day (-3.6% w/w), according to BNEF.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 55% chance the current El Nino weather pattern will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and weighing on nat-gas prices. AccuWeather said El Nino will limit snowfall across Canada this season in addition to causing above-normal temperatures across North America.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Thursday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended February 17 rose +1.8% y/y to 76,416 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending February 17 fell -0.2% y/y to 4,100,727 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices as nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 16 fell -60 bcf, close to expectations of -59 bcf but a much smaller draw than the five-year average for this time of year at -168 bcf. As of February 16, nat-gas inventories were up +12.5% y/y and were +22.3% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 65% full as of February 19, above the 5-year seasonal average of 49% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending February 23 fell by -1 rig to 120 rigs, moderately above the 2-year low of 113 rigs posted September 8. Active rigs have fallen back since climbing to a 4-1/2 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).