Category: Uncategorized

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ-T +1.70%increase, the country’s largest energy company, is poised to purchase a $1-billion-plus portfolio of Alberta natural gas properties from Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU-T -0.05%decrease

Canadian Natural filed the paperwork for federal Competition Bureau approval of a transaction with Tourmaline on Dec. 30, according to arecent notification published by the bureau. However, the regulator and the Calgary-based companies did not disclose details of the potential deal.

Canadian Natural is in talks to acquire a natural gas business in Alberta’s Peace River region that Tourmaline put up for sale in November, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations. The Globe is not naming the sources because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the talks.

Last year, analysts estimated the portfolio could fetch up to $1.4-billion. Canadian Natural also owns gas wells and energy infrastructure in the area.

Tourmaline’s Peace River operations include 2,428 horizontal wells, 34 gas plants and 15,500 kilometres of pipelines.

Opinion: Tourmaline’s billion-dollar natural gas sale will show oil patch sentiment on political promises

Canadian Natural is seeking preliminary regulatory feedback on a potential acquisition of the Tourmaline assets prior to announcing a purchase, the sources said.

Tourmaline said it would not comment on the sale process of its Peace River assets before its first-quarter report, which is slated for March 4.Canadian Natural also declined to comment on the regulatory filing.

Canadian Natural is the largest player in Alberta’s oil sands, with a $95-billion market capitalization. The company is also one of the country’s largest natural gas producers after a series of acquisitions in recent years.

Canadian Natural uses a significant amount of natural gas – 32 per cent of what it produces – in its oil sands refineries. It exports 33 per cent of its natural gas production and sells the remainder in domestic markets.

In a recent investor presentation, the company said the combination of improvements in drilling technology, and its Alberta network of pipelines and other energy infrastructure, offers a “significant opportunity to grow its liquids-rich natural gas assets.”

The application to the federal competition watchdog suggests that the scale of Canadian Natural’s potential acquisition requires regulatory approval, a relatively common development when companies in mature sectors such as energy buy businesses from peers.

CEO Mike Rose and others continue to buy as Tourmaline Oil rallies

Tourmaline, one of the country’s largest natural gas producers, is selling the Peace River assets to raise money for expansion of its operations in northeastern British Columbia’s Montney region. The area has the largest potential reserves of any North American natural gas play, with 45 years of drilling inventory at current rates of exploration.

Tourmaline, which has a $17-billion market capitalization, is working on one of the largest expansion projects in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, of which the Montney region is a part of, and aiming to increase total production to 850,000 barrels a day by early next decade.

Tourmaline’s sale of its Peace River assets is expected to lower its operational expenses this year by roughly 7 per cent, ATB Financial said in its 2026 oil and gas outlook.

Output from the liquids-rich Montney basin, which straddles northeastern B.C. and northwestern Alberta, has helped Canadian natural gas production hit record highs over the past few years. In 2024, average daily production was 18.3 billion cubic feet a day.

Interest in the Montney basin has been piqued by the launch of the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, B.C., in June, 2025, combined with the fact the basin provides some of the most economic production in Canada.

While ATB forecast a slowdown in mergers and acquisitions in the Canadian oil and gas sector in 2026, it said that value is still being recognized in transactions in the Montney basin, including Kiwetinohk Energy Corp.’s corporate sale to Cygnet Energy Ltd. late last year in a transaction with an enterprise value (equity and debt) of $1.4-billion.

Trendy fashion retailer Aritzia Inc. ATZ-T -0.55%decrease reported a nearly 90-per-cent jump in its third-quarter profit and hiked its full-year sales forecasts as the company’s continuing U.S. expansion and growing digital presence stoked demand among shoppers.

The Vancouver-based clothing brand on Thursday reported net income of $138.9-million or $1.16 per diluted share in the third quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025, compared to $74.1-million or 63 cents per share in the same quarter the year prior.

Aritzia’s hot streak continued through the all-important holiday shopping season. The company saw record-breaking sales during the period, which will apply to its fourth-quarter results, chief executive officer Jennifer Wong said on Thursday.

“I think our product looks absolutely fantastic, and what’s even more, we’ve been in an excellent inventory position to meet the demand,” Ms. Wong told analysts during a conference call to discuss the results.

Aritzia reported net revenue of $1.04-billion – its first quarterly sales report above $1-billion in the company’s history. That represented a 43-per-cent jump compared to the same quarter last year, led by the U.S. market, where Aritzia has been opening new locations.

The results significantly outpaced analysts’ expectations, which had forecast third-quarter revenue of $934.8-million and net income of $102-million, according to the consensus estimate from S&P Capital IQ.

Comparable sales – an important metric that tracks sales growth at stores open for more than one year, to exclude sales increases resulting from new store openings – grew by 34 per cent.

New store openings and increased investments in advertising contributed significantly to sales growth, as did a new mobile app. Ms. Wong called the app’s early performance “wildly successful,” noting that it has reached 1.4 million downloads since its launch in late October.

While the majority of the app downloads came from existing Aritzia customers, it also drew in a good portion of new shoppers to the brand, as well as some who had not shopped at the store in some time, Ms. Wong added.

On Thursday, the company boosted its sales forecasts for its results for the fiscal year. Aritzia now expects its full-year net revenue to grow by approximately 33 per cent compared to the prior year to around $3.6-billion. The company had previously forecasted that figure to land somewhere between $3.3- to $3.5-billion, or 21- to 22-per-cent growth.

The company is now on track to reach revenue targets it had initially set for its next fiscal year one year early, chief financial officer Todd Ingledew said on Thursday.

During the call, Ms. Wong also indicated that the company’s international e-commerce website, which went live in August, is drawing significant interest from countries such as Britain, Australia and China, and parts of Central Europe, such as Switzerland and Germany.

“We’re gaining lots of good information for future expansion of the Aritzia brand.”

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. MFI-T +3.86%increase is raising its quarterly dividend as it expects a mid-single-digit increase in revenue for fiscal 2026 compared with 2025.

The company says its adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $520-million and $540-million, driven by revenue growth and margin improvement from various initiatives.

Maple Leaf is also planning to spend about $160-million to $180-million on maintenance, productivity improvements and automation.

The protein packaging company says it is raising its quarterly dividend by approximately 10 per cent from 19 cents per share to 21 cents.

The company says its outlook is supported by sustained progress on key initiatives, which also included its recent move to separate its pork business.

Last year, Maple Leaf spun off its pork business as Canada Packers Inc.

Inflation cooled a bit last month as prices for gas and used cars fell, a sign that cost pressures are slowly easing.

Consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in December from the prior month, the Labor Department said Tuesday, the same as in November. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 0.2 per cent, also matching November’s figure. Increases at that pace, over time, would bring inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 per cent.

Even as inflation has eased, the large price increases for necessities such as groceries, rent, and health care have left many American households feeling squeezed, turning “affordability” issues into high-profile political concerns. Food prices have jumped about 25 per cent since the pandemic.

U.S. consumer confidence plummets to lowest level since Trump’s April tariffs

Tuesday’s report is the first clear measure of inflation since September. The six-week government shutdown last fall suspended the collection of price data used to compile the inflation rate, and the government didn’t issue a report in October and November’s figures were partially distorted by the impact of the closure.

Most prices in November were collected in the second half of the month, after the government reopened, when holiday discounts kicked in, which may have biased November inflation lower. And since rental prices weren’t fully collected in October, the agency that prepares the inflation reports used placeholder estimates in November, that may have biased prices lower, economists said.

Still, Tuesday’s report suggested that inflation didn’t change even with newer, more comprehensive figures. Consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent in December, compared with a year ago, the same figure as November, while core prices increased 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, also unchanged.

Inflation has come down significantly from the four-decade peak of 9.1 per cent that it reached in June, 2022, but it has been stubbornly close to 3 per cent since late 2023. The cost of necessities such as groceries is about 25 per cent higher than it was before the pandemic, and other necessities such as rent and clothing have also gotten more expensive, fueling dissatisfaction with the economy that both President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden have sought to address, though with limited success.

The Federal Reserve has struggled to balance its goal of fighting inflation by keeping borrowing costs high, while also supporting hiring by cutting interest rates when unemployment worsens. As long as inflation remains above its target of 2 per cent, the Fed will likely be reluctant to cut rates much more.

The Fed reduced its key rate by a quarter-point in December, but Chair Jerome Powell, at a press conference explaining its decision, said the Fed would probably hold off on further cuts to see how the economy evolves.

The 19 members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee have been sharply divided for months over whether to cut its rate further, or keep it at its current level of about 3.6 per cent to combat inflation.

Trump, meanwhile, has harshly criticized the Fed for not cutting its key short-term rate more sharply, a move he has said would reduce mortgage rates and the government’s borrowing costs for its huge debt pile. Yet the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, which are set by financial markets.

In a move that cast a shadow over the ability of the Fed to fight inflation in the future, the Department of Justice served the central bank last Friday with subpoenas related to Powell’s congressional testimony in June about a US$2.5-billion renovation of two Fed office buildings. Trump administration officials have suggested that Powell either lied about changes to the building or altered plans in ways that are inconsistent with those approved by planning commissions.

In a blunt response, Powell said Sunday those claims were “pretexts” for an effort by the White House to assert more control over the Fed.

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President,” Powell said. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

U.S. stocks have kicked off 2026 on a strong note, but could face turbulence in the coming days with the start of corporate earnings season, fresh inflation data and rising geopolitical uncertainty.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 2% already in ‍January, on ​the heels of the benchmark index in 2025 closing out its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains. Stocks jumped on Friday after mixed jobs data that saw traders maintain expectations for more interest rate cuts this year.

The market’s recent strength has defied an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape. After a U.S. military operation that seized Venezuela’s leader, officials in President Donald Trump’s administration spoke of acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the military. Investors point to a strong ⁠outlook for corporate profits, easing monetary policy and coming fiscal stimulus as supports for a bull market that is in its fourth year.

“On balance for this year, the foundation for the market is solid,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management.

“As we’re starting January, the market may be underappreciating some of the events on the horizon that could likely produce higher volatility,” Arone said. “It just seems a little too quiet.”

While geopolitical ‌events have boosted the safe-haven appeal ‍of gold, stocks have largely shrugged off the uncertainty, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. The Cboe ‍Volatility Index on Friday was not far above its low point from 2025.

“The ‌market’s a bit numb to it,” Miskin said. “But this is a time where everything is priced near ⁠perfection and it’s a time where you can take out some insurance or think about some defensive options just in case another geopolitical event hits the headlines.”

Major banks kick off fourth-quarter earnings season in the coming week, with strong profit growth this year a crucial source of optimism for stock investors. Analysts expect that overall earnings from S&P 500 companies climbed 13% in 2025, and they estimate a further rise of over 15% in 2026, according to LSEG IBES. JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender, reports on Tuesday, with Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs ​among those reporting later in the week. Financial sector earnings are expected to have climbed about 7% in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers, will be looking to bank results for insight into the health of the consumer, such as on credit card payment defaults, with consumer spending accounting for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

“The banks are going to be telling you something that is going to be pretty important because they’re on the front lines,” Juszkiewicz said.

Investors have been struggling to get a full picture of the economy because ⁠the 43-day government shutdown late last year delayed or canceled key reports, with data flow now returning to normal.

That could raise the ⁠stakes for Tuesday’s release of December’s Consumer Price Index, closely followed for inflation trends. It will be one of the last key releases before the Federal Reserve’s next monetary ‌policy meeting at the end of January.

The U.S. central bank lowered interest rates in each of its last three meetings of 2025 in response to a weakening labor market, but investors are unsure when it might cut further.

Fed easing is adding “a sense of calm to risk markets,” said Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investment strategist at Hartford Funds. “All the inflation numbers are going to be critical to what Fed policy is going to look like,” Abuhoff Jacobson said. “If the mosaic is suggesting that ‌inflation is inching higher, then there are going to be questions about whether the Fed is going to ease in 2026 or how much they can ease.

February Nymex natural gas (NGG26) on Friday closed down -0.238 (-6.99%),

Feb nat-gas prices added to this week’s sell-off on Friday, dropping to a 2.5-month nearest-futures low.  Forecasts of warmer US weather that will reduce nat-gas heating demand and allow storage levels to rebuild are undercutting prices.   Forecaster NatGasWeather said Friday that forecasts are warming across most of the US for January 9-15, with temperatures shifting even warmer across most of the country for January 16-23.  

Higher US nat-gas production is bearish for prices.  The EIA on December 9 raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production to 107.74 bcf/day from its November estimate of 107.70 bcf/day.  US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 113.5 bcf/day (+10.7% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 87.9 bcf/day (-28.1% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 19.5 bcf/day (+0.1% w/w), according to BNEF.

As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported on Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended January 3 rose +6.7% y/y to 82,732 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending January 3 rose +3.0% y/y to 4,306,606 GWh.

Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended January 2 fell by -119 bcf, a larger draw than the market consensus of -13 bcf and much larger than the 5-year weekly average draw of -92 bcf.  As of January 2, nat-gas inventories were down -3.5% y/y and were +1.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies.  As of January 6, gas storage in Europe was 58% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 72% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending January 9 fell by -1 to 124 rigs, modestly below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28.  In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.

February WTI crude oil (CLG26) today is up +0.99 (+1.77%), and February RBOB gasoline (RBG26) is up +0.0435 (+2.57%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices are sharply higher after today’s better-than-expected US economic news shows strength in energy demand.  Also, the upcoming annual rebalancing of commodity indexes will see buying of oil contracts, a bullish factor for crude.  On the negative side is today’s rally in the dollar index to a 4-week high and the negative carryover from Wednesday, after the US lifted some sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports and President Trump said Venezuela’s interim authorities agreed to give up as many as 50 million bbl of “high-quality sanctioned oil” to the US.  

Crude prices are moving higher today amid expectations of buying crude futures contracts for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes.  Citigroup projects that the BCOM and S&P GSCI indexes, the two largest commodity indexes, will see inflows of $2.2 billion in futures contracts over the next week to rebalance the indexes.  

Today’s better-than-expected US economic news is positive for energy demand and crude prices.  Dec Challenger job cuts fell -8.3% y/y to 35,553, a 17-month low, and weekly initial unemployment claims rose +8,000 to 208,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 212,000.  Also, Q3 nonfarm productivity rose +4.9%, close to expectations of +5.0% and the biggest increase in 2 years.

Crude prices came under pressure on Wednesday when the US Energy Department said that it would begin selectively rolling back sanctions to enable the transport and sale of Venezuelan crude and oil products to global markets,  potentially boosting global oil supplies.  Venezuela is currently the twelfth largest crude producer in OPEC.

Concerns about energy demand are negative for crude prices after Saudi Arabia on Monday cut the price of its Arab Light crude for February delivery to customers for a third month.  

Morgan Stanley predicted that a global oil market surplus is likely to expand further and peak mid-year, pressuring prices, as it cut its crude price forecast for Q1 to $57.50/bbl from a prior forecast of $60/bbl, and cut its Q2 crude price forecast to $55/bbl from $60/bbl.

Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -3.4% w/w to 119.35 million bbl in the week ended January 2.

Strength in Chinese crude demand is supportive for prices.  According to Kpler data, China’s crude imports in December are set to increase by 10% m/m to a record 12.2 million bpd as it rebuilds its crude inventories.

Crude garnered support after OPEC+ on Sunday said it would stick to its plan to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026.  OPEC+ at its November 2025 meeting announced that members would raise production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus.  The IEA in mid-October forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026.  OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore.  OPEC’s December crude production rose by +40,000 bpd to 29.03 million bpd.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past four months, limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies.  Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea.  In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Last month, the IEA projected that the world crude surplus will widen to a record 3.815 million bpd in 2026 from a 4-year high of over 2.0 million bpd in 2025.

Last month, OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations and OPEC also ramped up crude output.  OPEC said it now sees a 500,000 bpd surplus in global oil markets in Q3, versus the previous month’s estimate for a -400,000 bpd deficit.  Also, the EIA raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of January 2 were -4.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -3.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending January 2 was down -0.1% w/w to 13.811 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Tuesday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended January 2 rose by +3 rigs to 412 rigs, recovering from the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
 

Sunday, Jan. 4

OPEC+ meeting

---

Monday, Jan. 5

Japan and China release PMIs

North American auto sales for December

10 am ET: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI

---

Tuesday, Jan. 6

China expected to release foreign reserves

Services PMIs to be released in Europe; Germany and France release inflation data for December

930 am ET: Canada S&P global services PMI

945 am ET: U.S. S&P global services/composite PMI

---

Wednesday, Jan. 7

Euro area CPI data

815 am ET: U.S. ADP national employment report for December

10 am ET: Canada Ivey PMI

10 am ET: U.S. ISM services PMI

10 am ET: U.S. job openings and labor turnover survey for November

10 am ET: U.S. factory orders for October

10 am ET: U.S. global supply chain pressure index

Earnings include: Constellation Brands

---

Thursday, Jan. 8

Euro area releases CPI expectations and economic confidence data

830 am ET: Canada merchandise trade balance for October. BMO economists expect a deficit of $1.5 billion, flipping from a minor surplus a month earlier.

830 am ET: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims

830 am ET: U.S. productivity and unit labour cost for the third quarter

830 am ET: U.S. goods and services trade deficit for October. BMO expects a US$58 billion reading

10 am ET: U.S. wholesale inventories

Earnings include: Aritzia

---

Friday, Jan 9

China releases CPI data for December.

Euro area releases retail sales for November; Germany and France release industrial production data for November

830 am ET: Canada employment report for December. Consensus is for a net loss of 5,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising two notches to 6.7 per cent. Average hourly wages are expected to be up 3.5 per cent from a year earlier

830 am ET: U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December. Consensus is for 55,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to fall one notch to 4.5 per cent

830 am ET: U.S. housing starts and building permits

10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings include Corus Entertainment and Platinum Group Metals

RECALL $ 2.3 BILLION ECONOMIC AID FROM CANADIAN TAX PAYERS !

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed former federal minister Chrystia Freeland as an adviser on economic development.

Freeland has long expressed her support for Ukraine amid its war with Russia.

She has said the country could become an economic juggernaut by taking up the opportunities it missed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In a post on social media Monday, Zelensky said Ukraine needs to strengthen what he called its “internal resilience.”

“Chrystia is highly skilled in these matters and has extensive experience in attracting investment and implementing economic transformations,” he said.

“Right now, Ukraine needs to strengthen its internal resilience – both for the sake of Ukraine’s recovery if diplomacy delivers results as swiftly as possible, and to reinforce our defence if, because of delays by our partners, it takes longer to bring this war to an end.”

Freeland, who has Ukrainian ancestry, was a cabinet minister and deputy prime minister in Justin Trudeau’s government.

She was named by Prime Minister Mark Carney as Canada’s special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

She stepped away from cabinet in September, but still represents the federal riding of University–Rosedale in Toronto.

Her appointment comes as Carney travels to Paris to meet with other allies of Ukraine in a bid to end Russia’s nearly four-year war on the country.

Canada has contributed more than $23.5-billion to Ukraine in military, economic and humanitarian support since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Conservative MPs, including Ontario’s Roman Baber and B.C.’s Todd Doherty, said Freeland’s acceptance of this position puts her in a conflict of interest.

“To be clear, (Freeland) is still a sitting member of Parliament. Not only did she lack the decency to resign her seat, this is a blatant conflict of interest. Liberals get away with everything!” Baber wrote in a post on the social media platform X.

The Canadian Press has reached out to Canada’s conflict of interest commissioner for comment.

While Canada’s Conflict of Interest Act cites several things MPs are not allowed to do – such as engaging in outside professions or employment – it does not include specific language about advising a foreign head of government.

This latest appointment comes after Freeland was named the incoming CEO of the Rhodes Trust, an Oxford, England-based educational charity.

The charity is famous for the prestigious Rhodes Scholarship that offers students from around the world a chance to study at the University of Oxford.

This job will see Freeland relocate to Oxford, with a start date of July 1.

Freeland has not formally announced any plans to resign as a member of Parliament, but has said she will not run in the next election.

She has been seen only seldom in the House of Commons since leaving cabinet but has continued to take part in votes remotely.

Freeland’s social media shows she spent much of the fall and early winter travelling between Toronto, Ukraine and other European nations as part of her duties as Canada’s representative on the reconstruction of Ukraine.