Stocks drop after Trump reimposes Strait of Hormuz blockade, SK Hynix leads chip stocks lower: Live updates
Stocks fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he was reinstating what he called a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World,” he continued.
Oil prices jumped following his announcement, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rising more than 7% to top $76. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, advanced 7% to above $81 per barrel.
The latest escalation came after Iran and the U.S. exchanged airstrikes over the weekend. Tehran targeted U.S. facilities in several Gulf countries and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, though Trump disputed that claim on Sunday, saying the key shipping lane remained open to commercial traffic.
Trump on Saturday ordered airstrikes on Iran after Tehran attacked a commercial vessel transiting the strait.
“It’s a range-bound market until you get a true solution in the Middle East,” said Ben Fulton, CEO of WEBs Investments.
Semiconductor names were under pressure. U.S.-listed shares of SK Hynix lost 6% following the South Korean chipmaker’s Nasdaq debut on Friday, when it soared 13%.
Expectations for the season are high. On average, analysts estimate that second-quarter S&P 500 profits grew by more than 23% year over year, per FactSet.
On Tuesday, the June CPI report is due out in the morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting the headline reading to show a 0.2% decline on the month but a year-over-year increase of 3.8%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is also slated to appear before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday, offering testimony on the central bank’s semi-annual monetary policy report.
• Confirmed: Brent crude was up about 3.1% at US$78.40 and WTI about 3.0% at US$73.58 after renewed U.S.–Iran strikes. • Confirmed: Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed, while U.S. authorities said commercial traffic was still moving; roughly 20 vessels reportedly passed through during the prior 24 hours. • Confirmed: Nasdaq futures were down about 0.9%, while the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.24%, its highest level since early 2025. • Interpretation: The immediate TSX effect is likely positive for energy but negative for technology, utilities, REITs and consumer-sensitive sectors because higher oil and bond yields revive inflation concerns.
Sector impact
Energy: Positive. Higher crude prices improve near-term cash-flow expectations for producers such as CNQ, Suncor, Cenovus and Imperial Oil.
Financials: Mixed. Higher yields can support net interest margins, but geopolitical risk and slower-growth concerns can raise credit-risk expectations.
Materials: Mixed. Higher geopolitical risk can support safe-haven demand, but rising yields are pressuring gold; industrial metals remain more dependent on China’s July 15 data.
Technology: Negative. Higher bond yields compress valuation multiples, and global semiconductor and AI shares were weaker in pre-market trading.
Utilities and REITs: Negative. Both are bond-proxy sectors and are vulnerable to rising long-term yields.
Industrials: Slightly negative. Higher fuel and transportation costs are an earnings headwind, although defence-related companies may outperform.
Consumer sectors: Negative. Higher gasoline and transportation costs reduce household purchasing power and raise operating costs.
TSX interpretation
The TSX could outperform U.S. technology-heavy indexes because of its energy weighting, but the broad index may still struggle if oil-driven inflation pushes yields higher. The key near-term test is whether the Strait remains operational despite competing claims. A verified reduction in vessel traffic would strengthen the bullish energy and bearish rate-sensitive-sector thesis; normalized shipping would weaken it.
(2) Material development identified:
Confirmed facts • Brent crude rose about 3.3% to US$78.48 per barrel and WTI rose about 3.3% to US$73.76 on July 13 after renewed U.S.–Iran military strikes increased concern about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. • September S&P/TSX futures were up about 0.1% early Monday. • Iran says the Strait is closed, while U.S. Central Command says about 20 vessels passed through in the previous 24 hours. A full closure is therefore not independently confirmed. • A Reuters poll published July 13 found all 36 economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15.
Likely TSX impact • Energy: positive from higher oil prices. • Financials: mixed; higher yields may help margins, but geopolitical risk can weaken credit sentiment. • Materials: neutral to slightly negative if China growth concerns outweigh inflation-hedge demand. • Technology: negative bias if higher oil lifts inflation expectations and bond yields. • Utilities and REITs: negative bias from higher yields. • Industrials: mixed; transport and manufacturing face higher fuel and input costs. • Consumer sectors: negative because higher energy costs reduce household purchasing power.
Interpretation The immediate benefit is concentrated in energy. The broad TSX response may remain limited because higher oil also raises inflation, interest-rate and growth risks.
Base case: energy outperforms while the overall TSX is only modestly higher. Bull case: shipping normalizes and tensions ease, allowing broader sectors to recover. Bear case: verified disruption pushes crude materially higher, but the broad TSX weakens on inflation and recession concerns.
(3) Oil and Hormuz Escalation | July 13, 2026
Summary
• Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed following renewed U.S.–Iran military exchanges, although U.S. Central Command says commercial traffic is still moving and about 20 ships passed in the prior 24 hours. • WTI crude was approximately US$73.75–US$73.99 early Monday, up roughly 2.4%–3.5%; Brent was about US$78.22–US$78.76, up around 3%–3.6%. • September S&P/TSX futures were up only about 0.1% at 6:12 a.m. ET, indicating that energy-sector support was being partly offset by weaker global risk sentiment and higher bond yields. • Nasdaq futures were down about 0.9%, while the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.24%, reflecting renewed inflation concerns from higher oil prices. • The Bank of Canada is still widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15; the main focus will be its inflation language and updated forecasts.
Confirmed Developments
Strait of Hormuz risk increased materially Iran says the waterway is closed, but actual shipping has not stopped completely. The discrepancy matters: a verified physical shutdown would be materially more serious than a political declaration alone.
Oil prices moved sharply higher WTI rose into the US$73.75–US$73.99 range and Brent into the US$78.22–US$78.76 range. This is a meaningful but not yet disorderly price shock.
Broader markets turned risk-off U.S. equity futures weakened, especially technology, while short-term Treasury yields rose. TSX futures remained slightly positive because Canada’s large energy weight offset part of the global equity weakness.
Likely TSX Impact
Energy: Positive near term. CNQ, Suncor, Cenovus and Imperial Oil should receive direct support from higher crude prices.
Financials: Mixed. Higher yields may support margins, but a larger geopolitical shock would increase credit and recession risk.
Materials: Mixed to negative. Higher yields and a stronger inflation premium can pressure gold and growth-sensitive metals, despite safe-haven demand.
Technology: Negative near term. Higher yields reduce valuation support for long-duration growth stocks such as Shopify and Constellation Software.
Utilities and REITs: Negative. Rising bond yields increase discount rates and borrowing-cost concerns.
Industrials: Mixed to negative. Railways and exporters face risk-off pressure, while defence-related names may benefit.
The TSX may outperform U.S. indexes today because of its energy weighting, but the index-level gain could remain modest if technology, utilities, REITs and consumer shares weaken. The key confirmation signal is whether tanker traffic actually declines further and whether WTI sustains a move above the mid-US$70s.
What Would Disprove This View
• Verified normalization of commercial shipping through Hormuz. • A credible U.S.–Iran de-escalation agreement. • WTI reversing below approximately US$71–US$72. • Bond yields falling despite higher oil prices.
Sources: Reuters, Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch and U.S. Central Command reporting, July 13, 2026.
A new study by KPMG found that 40% or manufacturers in Canada have moved production south of the border or are considering the idea as they adapt to trade uncertainty and competitive pressure.
“Manufacturers have shown incredible resilience, adapting to tariffs and uncertainty to navigate this period of heightened volatility,” said Anamika Gadia, Partner and National Leader of Industrial Markets at KPMG Canada.
“But businesses can only operate in endurance mode for so long. Companies can delay investments, absorb higher costs and adjust their operations, but they can’t remain in a holding pattern indefinitely. At some point, uncertainty begins to shape long-term decisions about where investment, production and growth will occur.”
Some of the top reasons for the exodus to the U.S. include avoiding or reducing high import tariffs, ongoing trade uncertainty, lower operating costs and a more favourable tax environment.
Those same companies were asked what would encourage them to stay in Canada. The respondents said ensuring certainty around free trade, continuing tariff relief and remissions for imports from the U.S., lowering corporate taxes, improving cost of living and housing affordability for employees, and improved access to skilled workers could help change their plans.
On Canada Day, the Trump administration said the U.S. would not join Canada and Mexico in extending the free trade deal for another 16 years. The agreement remains in effect for 10 years while the three sides either negotiate changes or decide to withdraw from the pact.
Heavily dependent
The survey says that Canadian manufacturers remain heavily dependent on the U.S. market, with 61% agreeing their business cannot survive without access to it. Eighty-six per cent of manufacturers export goods outside Canada, and among exporters, 96% say their products are CUSMA-compliant, meaning they are not subject to tariffs.
“While tariffs are an obvious factor, Canadian manufacturers are making long-term decisions about where to locate based on a broader assessment of where they are most likely to have a competitive advantage,” says Joy Nott, Partner, Trade and Customs at KPMG Canada.
A survey of 275 manufacturers finds that 57% say they have paused, reduced or cancelled capital expenditure projects due to economic uncertainty, trade and tariff threats, while 42% have scaled back or paused research and development spending. Fifty-two per cent say they are currently operating in “endurance mode.”
“Sustaining Canada’s manufacturing sector will require businesses to continue investing in productivity, technology and market diversification, while governments work to reduce uncertainty and improve competitiveness,” Gadia said. “The question now is whether Canada can create the conditions that give manufacturers the confidence to keep building, investing and staying here.”
The study also noted that 80% of Canadian manufacturers plan to keep their headquarters in Canada. However, 11% plan to move their headquarters to the U.S. within the next five years.
“The greater risk isn’t where companies are today, but where future investment decisions are being made,” Gadia said. “Many manufacturers are pausing Canadian investments and reassessing where future growth and production capacity should be located.”
Job growth in Canada could almost flatline and it still wouldn’t affect the national unemployment rate because of population declines, though the story differs on a province-by-province basis, says Toronto-Dominion Bank.
“Canada’s job market is entering a new phase,” Marc Ercolao, an economist at TD, said in report on July 8, two days before the June Labour Force Survey is released by Statistics Canada.
TD estimated that to hold the national unemployment rate steady — “breakeven employment growth” — the number of new jobs needed on a monthly basis is close to zero since federal immigration cuts have reduced Canada’s population over the past few quarters for the first time on record.
However, Ercolao said a national near-zero growth rate “masks” major differences from province to province.
“In some provinces, labour forces are already shrinking,” he said. “In others, migration and younger demographics continue to expand the pool of available workers.”
For example, the amount of hiring needed to hold unemployment rates steady in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec has “sharply” fallen, with Ercolao estimating that those provinces could lose 11,000, 13,000 and 36,000 positions, respectively, without triggering a higher jobless rate.
“This marks a sharp reversal from their historical pattern of steady job growth,” he said.
He said the decline in population growth in the three provinces is the main reason for the change. He also expects the provinces’ workforces to shrink this year because of the loss of younger working-age temporary immigrants.
Meanwhile, Alberta will need to add 56,000 positions this year to keep a lid on the unemployment rate, TD said, because the province continues to record the highest rate of people moving there from other parts of Canada, while a younger population implies that the workforce will continue to grow.
“Alberta’s breakeven threshold is meaningfully higher,” Ercolao said. “That limits how far its unemployment rate can fall, even with solid hiring.”
Several other provinces, including Saskatchewan and Manitoba, are forecasted to add jobs above their breakeven points recorded prior to the pandemic.
The Prairie workforce is expected to expand nearly two per cent in 2026 and Atlantic Canada’s could grow almost one per cent compared against “national stagnation,” TD said.
Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to mirror its historical pace of job growth, recording a flat breakeven, TD said.
“As labour force growth stalls, national employment reports are becoming harder to interpret,” Ercolao said, adding that the Bank of Canada has already cautioned that labour force data needs to be interpreted with care.Advertisement 2
Statistics Canada releases June’s job numbers on July 10 and analysts are calling for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.6 per cent and for the economy to add 10,000 positions.
In May, Canada added 87,800 net new positions, blowing past economist estimates.
Wednesday, July 15 is the highest-risk session: the Bank of Canada rate decision, Monetary Policy Report, China’s economic data and U.S. producer inflation are all scheduled.
U.S. CPI on Tuesday will influence bond yields, Federal Reserve expectations and TSX technology, utilities, REITs and financials.
Strait of Hormuz developments remain the main geopolitical risk. Escalation would likely support Canadian energy shares but hurt airlines, consumer stocks and interest-rate-sensitive sectors.
China’s Q2 GDP and June activity data will be important for TSX materials, mining and commodity producers.
U.S. bank and technology earnings could affect global risk appetite and spill over into Canadian financial and technology stocks.
Event Calendar and Expected TSX Impact
Date
Event
Main TSX exposure
Potential market effect
Mon., July 13
Outcome of U.S.–Iran/Oman talks; Fed speakers
Energy, airlines, industrials
Oil and risk-sentiment volatility
Tue., July 14
U.S. June CPI; Fed Chair congressional testimony
Technology, REITs, utilities, banks
Major bond-yield and valuation catalyst
Wed., July 15
Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report
Banks, REITs, utilities, telecoms, CAD
Largest domestic catalyst
Wed., July 15
China Q2 GDP, industrial production and retail sales
Materials, mining, energy
Commodity-demand signal
Wed., July 15
U.S. June PPI; Fed Beige Book
Technology, financials, industrials
Inflation and growth expectations
Wed., July 15
Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales
Industrials, transports, banks
Domestic growth indication
Thu., July 16
U.S. retail sales and jobless claims
Consumer, financials, technology
U.S. demand and rate outlook
Fri., July 17
U.S. industrial production, housing starts, consumer sentiment and import prices
Materials, industrials, financials
Growth and inflation confirmation
Fri., July 17
Canadian foreign securities transactions
CAD, banks, broad TSX
Capital-flow signal
Key Drivers
1. Bank of Canada decision — Wednesday, July 15
The Bank of Canada will announce its policy rate at 9:45 a.m. ET and publish a new Monetary Policy Report. The overnight rate is currently 2.25%, and the consensus expectation is for no change.
The rate decision itself may therefore be less important than the Bank’s language on:
May’s elevated inflation;
energy-price volatility;
economic recovery;
U.S. trade uncertainty;
the future balance between rate cuts and rate increases.
TSX reaction framework
Bank of Canada message
Likely sector reaction
Dovish: inflation expected to ease; weak growth emphasized
Positive for REITs, utilities, telecoms and growth stocks; CAD may weaken
Neutral: rate unchanged with balanced risks
Limited index reaction; sector-specific trading
Hawkish: energy inflation and inflation expectations emphasized
Bond yields and CAD could rise; negative for REITs, utilities and technology; mixed for banks
The latest economist polling indicates the Bank is widely expected to hold rates steady through much of 2026, but an unexpected hawkish tone could still generate significant volatility.
2. U.S. CPI — Tuesday, July 14
The U.S. June CPI report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET.
Headline inflation may decline because gasoline prices dropped after the earlier easing in U.S.–Iran tensions. However, core inflation is more important because it excludes food and energy and better reflects underlying price pressure.
TSX implications
Lower-than-expected core CPI
U.S. and Canadian bond yields could fall.
Positive for Shopify, Constellation Software and other high-duration technology shares.
Positive for utilities, telecoms and REITs.
Potentially negative for bank net-interest-margin expectations.
Higher-than-expected core CPI
Bond yields could rise.
Technology and rate-sensitive sectors could weaken.
Banks may initially benefit from higher-rate expectations, although recession concerns could offset that benefit.
The U.S. dollar could strengthen, potentially weakening the Canadian dollar.
The key distinction is between lower headline inflation caused by gasoline and genuine improvement in core inflation.
3. Strait of Hormuz and U.S.–Iran tensions
This remains the largest unscheduled risk.
WTI ended the previous week near US$71.41 per barrel, supported by renewed U.S.–Iran conflict, attacks on shipping and higher maritime insurance costs. Commercial traffic through the Strait remained constrained despite continued negotiations.
The United States has demanded that Iran publicly commit to safe commercial passage through the Strait. Discussions involving Iran and Oman therefore have the potential to materially move oil when markets reopen.
TSX impact
Development
Likely TSX effect
Iran agrees to secure passage; tanker traffic normalizes
Oil falls; energy stocks weaken; airlines and consumer stocks benefit
Negotiations continue without resolution
Oil remains volatile around an elevated risk premium
Additional tanker attacks or military strikes
Oil rises; CNQ, Suncor, Imperial Oil and Cenovus likely outperform
Full disruption of Hormuz traffic
Strong energy rally, but broader TSX could weaken due to inflation and recession concerns
A rise in oil is not automatically positive for the whole TSX. Energy may rise while technology, consumer discretionary, transportation, utilities and REITs decline because of higher inflation and bond yields.
4. China economic data — Wednesday, July 15
China is scheduled to publish:
second-quarter GDP;
June industrial production;
retail sales;
fixed-asset investment;
housing-market data.
China’s official statistical release calendar confirms that quarterly economic performance data are released in July.
TSX exposure
China is an important marginal buyer of industrial commodities. Results will therefore affect:
copper producers;
diversified miners;
steel and metallurgical coal;
fertilizer producers;
oil-demand expectations.
Stronger data: supportive for materials and energy, particularly copper-sensitive companies.
Weaker data: negative for mining and commodity prices, although expectations of Chinese stimulus could partially offset the initial decline.
The most important figures for the TSX may be industrial production, fixed investment and property activity, rather than headline GDP alone.
5. U.S. PPI and Canadian activity data — Wednesday
The U.S. Producer Price Index is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on July 15.
PPI measures inflation at the producer level and can indicate future pressure on consumer prices and corporate margins.
On the same morning, Canada will release May manufacturing shipments and wholesale trade data.
TSX impact
Strong Canadian manufacturing data would support the domestic-growth outlook and industrial stocks.
Weak data would reinforce concerns about tariffs, exports and business investment.
High U.S. PPI could raise bond yields and pressure rate-sensitive TSX sectors.
Low PPI would support the argument that inflation is moderating.
6. U.S. retail sales — Thursday, July 16
U.S. retail sales are important because the United States is Canada’s largest export market.
Strong retail sales
Positive for Canadian manufacturers and exporters.
Supportive for railways and industrials.
Could raise yields if markets interpret the data as reducing the need for Fed easing.
Weak retail sales
Negative for Canadian cyclicals and exporters.
Potentially positive for technology and REIT valuations if bond yields fall.
Could increase recession concerns if weakness is broad.
The TSX reaction will depend on whether the market prioritizes growth or interest-rate relief.
7. U.S. bank and technology earnings
Major U.S. financial institutions—including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley—are scheduled to report during the week. Semiconductor equipment producer ASML and chip manufacturer TSMC are also major global catalysts.
Canadian spillovers
U.S. bank results
Watch for:
loan-loss provisions;
credit-card delinquencies;
commercial-real-estate exposure;
investment-banking revenue;
net interest margins.
Poor credit-quality commentary could pressure Royal Bank, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank even without Canadian-specific news.
Semiconductor results
Strong AI demand and capital-spending guidance could support:
Shopify through broader technology sentiment;
Celestica through data-centre and hardware demand;
the overall TTTK technology index.
Weak semiconductor orders or cautious guidance could reverse recent technology-sector strength.
Risk Ranking
Rank
Catalyst
TSX sensitivity
1
Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report
Very high
2
U.S.–Iran/Hormuz developments
Very high
3
U.S. CPI
Very high
4
China GDP and industrial data
High
5
U.S. PPI and retail sales
Moderate–high
6
U.S. earnings season
Moderate–high
7
Canadian manufacturing and wholesale data
Moderate
Scenarios for the Week
Scenario
Conditions
Probable TSX effect
Bull
BoC remains neutral/dovish; U.S. core inflation softens; China data are firm; Hormuz tensions ease without an oil collapse
Broad TSX advance led by technology, financials and materials
Base
BoC holds with balanced language; inflation data are mixed; oil remains near its current range
Range-bound TSX with significant sector rotation
Bear
BoC turns hawkish; U.S. core inflation surprises higher; China disappoints; Hormuz conflict escalates
Energy may outperform, but broad TSX pressured by higher yields and weaker risk appetite
Actionable Takeaways
Wednesday is the pivotal day because Canadian monetary policy, China’s growth data and U.S. producer inflation arrive within hours of each other.
For energy, monitor tanker traffic and official statements from Iran, Oman and the United States—not merely headlines about negotiations.
For technology, utilities and REITs, the key variable is the direction of North American bond yields following CPI and the Bank of Canada decision.
For materials, China’s industrial and property data will be more important than Canadian domestic releases.
For financials, watch both the Bank of Canada’s rate outlook and credit-quality commentary from U.S. bank earnings.
The base case is a volatile, sector-rotation-driven week, rather than a uniform rise or decline across the TSX.
(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for June.
(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP Employment (4-week average change) for week of June 27.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for June. The Street is expecting a month-over-month decline of 0.1 per cent and a rise of 3.9 per cent year-over-year.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Fed’s Monetary Policy Report to the House Financial Services Committee.
Earnings include: Bank of America; Citigroup Inc.; Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; JP Morgan Chase & Co.; Wells Fargo & Co.
Wednesday July 15
China’s real GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment
Japan’s core machine orders
Euro zone’s industrial production
(5 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales and average prices for June. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 1.0 per cent and 0.1 per cent year-over-year, respectively.
(5 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for June. Estimate is a year-over-year decline of 3.5 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders. Estimates are month-over-month rises of 1.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for May. Estimate is a month-over-month slide of 0.7 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for May. Estimate is a year-over-year drop of 3.0 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI Final Demand for June. The Street is projecting a month-over-month decline of 0.1 per cent but a 6.1-per-cent year-over-year increase.
(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s policy announcement and Monetary Policy report (with press conference to follow).
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Fed’s Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee.
Earnings include: ASML Holding; Bank of New York Mellon Corp.; BlackRock Inc.; Cintas Corp.; Cogeco Inc.; Cogeco Communications Inc.; Johnson & Johnson; Morgan Stanley; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
Thursday July 16
Euro zone’s trade surplus
(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for June. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 0.5 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of July 11. Estimate is 222,000, up 7,000 from the previous week.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for June. The Street is projecting a month-over-month rise of 0.3 per cent.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Index for July.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for May.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for June.
Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories; GE Aerospace; Netflix Inc.; Seagate Technology PLC; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing; UnitedHealth Group Inc.
Friday July 17
Euro zone CPI
(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for May.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for June. Consensus is an annualized rate jump of 13.0 per cent.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for June. The Street expects a decline of 0.7 per cent on an annualized rate basis.
(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for June. Consensus is a decline of 0.6 per cent from May but a rise of 6.2 per cent year-over-year.
(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for June.
(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July.
The S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index (TTTK) gained approximately 3.2% over the latest 10 trading sessions, using the closely tracking XIT ETF as the observable proxy: C$72.16 on June 26 to C$74.46 on July 10.
Shopify was the principal positive contributor, rising 4.7% over the period. Its large index weight—approximately 28%—gave the move substantial influence.
CGI gained 3.9%, adding moderate support because it represents roughly 9% of the sector index.
Kinaxis was effectively unchanged, rising only 0.05%, and its approximately 2% index weight meant its contribution was negligible.
TTTK’s rise was not broad and uniform. It was largely a large-cap technology rally, particularly Shopify, while daily volatility remained high.
10-Trading-Day Performance
The period measured is June 26 through July 10, 2026.
Security
June 26 close
July 10 close
Change
TTTK proxy—XIT
C$72.16
C$74.46
+3.19%
SHOP.TO
C$165.70
C$173.51
+4.71%
GIB.A.TO
C$91.29
C$94.85
+3.90%
KXS.TO
C$154.74
C$154.81
+0.05%
Price data:
TTTK Movement
TTTK moved through three phases.
1. June 26–30: uneven start
The XIT proxy rose strongly on June 26, fell slightly on June 29 and recovered on June 30:
Date
XIT daily move
June 26
+1.08%
June 29
−0.17%
June 30
+0.78%
Shopify gained 4.62% on June 26, but then fell 2.04% on June 29, creating volatility at the index level. CGI also rose 3.3% on June 26, while Kinaxis gained 3.4%.
2. July 2–7: upward momentum
XIT advanced in each session from July 2 through July 7:
July 2: +0.51%
July 3: +0.42%
July 6: +0.34%
July 7: +0.99%
The largest support came from Shopify, which gained 4.55% on July 2 and another 1.46% on July 7. CGI also rose 2.69% on July 2 and 1.52% on July 7.
3. July 8–10: volatility but positive finish
TTTK weakened on July 8 as Shopify, CGI and Kinaxis all declined:
Stock
July 8 move
SHOP
−2.60%
GIB.A
−1.89%
KXS
−2.91%
XIT declined 0.88% that day. The broader TSX was also pressured by renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and risk reduction across Canadian equities.
Technology rebounded over July 9–10, with XIT adding 0.67% and 0.49%, respectively.
SHOP.TO
Performance
Shopify rose from C$165.70 to C$173.51, a gain of:165.70173.51−165.70×100=4.71%
The stock traded in a wide range, reaching an intraday high of C$184.96 on July 10, before closing at C$173.51.
Key drivers
1. Analyst upgrades
Shopify received supportive analyst commentary during the period, including a Stifel upgrade to Buy and a reinstated Buy rating from Bank of America. These calls strengthened sentiment after the stock’s earlier earnings-related decline.
2. Recovery from the May earnings sell-off
Shopify had fallen sharply after its first-quarter results despite revenue growing 34% year over year to US$3.17 billion. Investors had been disappointed by profitability and guidance that did not exceed elevated expectations. The recent advance represents, in part, a recovery from that earlier valuation compression.
3. Upcoming earnings catalyst
Shopify announced that it would report second-quarter 2026 results. Ahead of earnings, the market is focusing on:
revenue growth in the high-20% range;
free-cash-flow margin;
merchant-solutions growth;
AI-commerce adoption;
operating expense discipline.
The share price remains sensitive because Shopify trades at a high growth-oriented valuation.
4. July 9 rally
Shopify rose 3.41% on July 9, materially lifting TTTK. The gain coincided with positive analyst activity.
Assessment
Shopify was the main driver of TTTK’s 10-day gain. At approximately 28% of the index, a 4.7% Shopify gain would, in isolation, contribute roughly:28%×4.7%≈1.3%
to the sector index before accounting for rebalancing and other holdings.
GIB.A.TO — CGI
Performance
CGI rose from C$91.29 to C$94.85, a gain of 3.9%.
Key drivers
1. Recovery from earlier weakness
CGI had fallen as low as approximately C$86–C$88 in mid-to-late June. The latest period therefore represented a recovery from oversold conditions rather than a major earnings-driven revaluation.
2. Contract and partnership announcements
Positive operational announcements included:
CGI’s participation in launching Massachusetts’ Mosaic financial-management system;
recognition as a Microsoft cloud and AI delivery partner;
continued government and enterprise technology contract activity.
These announcements reinforced CGI’s recurring-revenue and public-sector contract profile.
3. Valuation support
CGI is generally less volatile than Shopify because its business is based more heavily on long-duration IT services, outsourcing and government contracts. Its lower-growth but more predictable cash-flow profile attracted buyers following the prior decline.
4. Continuing caution
The recovery occurred after Scotiabank had lowered its price target to C$95 from C$110 in late June. This suggests the market still has concerns about organic growth, contract timing or margin expansion.
Assessment
CGI provided a meaningful secondary contribution to TTTK. Based on an approximately 8.9% weight, its 3.9% gain contributed roughly:8.9%×3.9%≈0.35%
to the index.
KXS.TO — Kinaxis
Performance
Kinaxis moved from C$154.74 to C$154.81, essentially unchanged at +0.05%.
The flat result concealed substantial volatility:
July 2: +3.43%
July 6: −1.48%
July 7: +2.06%
July 8: −2.91%
July 10: +1.16%
Key drivers
1. Positive customer announcements
Kinaxis announced that MANE had selected its supply-chain planning platform, following other recent partnership and customer-expansion announcements. These wins supported confidence in recurring SaaS demand.
2. Strong underlying growth
Kinaxis’ first-quarter SaaS revenue grew 21% year over year, annual recurring revenue grew 20%, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 32%. These results provide fundamental support.
3. Valuation and execution sensitivity
Despite strong operating growth, Kinaxis remains sensitive to:
contract timing;
SaaS bookings;
foreign-exchange movements;
implementation delays;
changes in technology-sector valuation multiples.
The stock therefore failed to hold its early-period gains.
4. Limited index impact
Kinaxis represents only about 2.1% of XIT/TTTK. Its flat 10-day return had virtually no effect on the sector index.
Contribution Summary
Using approximate July index weights:
Company
Approx. index weight
10-day return
Approx. contribution
Shopify
28.1%
+4.71%
+1.32 percentage points
CGI
8.9%
+3.90%
+0.35 percentage points
Kinaxis
2.1%
+0.05%
~0.00 percentage points
The remaining gain came mainly from other large holdings, particularly Celestica and Constellation Software, which together account for nearly half of the index. Approximate holdings data show Shopify, Celestica and Constellation Software dominate TTTK/XIT, making the index substantially more concentrated than the broad TSX.
Risks
Shopify earnings or guidance below high market expectations.
Higher bond yields compressing technology valuation multiples.
AI-related disruption to traditional software and IT-service models.
CGI organic-growth weakness or slower contract awards.
Kinaxis bookings volatility and longer implementation cycles.
Concentration risk: roughly three-quarters of the index is held in Shopify, Celestica and Constellation Software.
Scenarios
Scenario
TTTK interpretation
Bull
Shopify sustains momentum, CGI continues its recovery and other large holdings remain firm; TTTK breaks above the recent trading range.
Base
TTTK consolidates after the 3.2% advance while investors await Shopify and CGI earnings.
Bear
Shopify reverses, bond yields rise or earnings guidance disappoints; concentration causes TTTK to decline disproportionately.
Actionable Takeaways
TTTK’s latest increase was primarily Shopify-driven, supported by CGI and other large index constituents.
SHOP.TO: strongest of the three, but also the most valuation-sensitive and volatile.
GIB.A.TO: recovering from depressed levels; steadier business profile, but organic-growth concerns remain.
KXS.TO: fundamentally solid but price performance was neutral; customer wins have not yet produced sustained upward momentum.
The bullish interpretation would be disproved by Shopify falling back below its late-June range, CGI failing to hold approximately C$90–C$92, or Kinaxis breaking materially below C$150.
Loblaw (L.TO) closed at C$64.18 on July 10, 2026, compared with C$65.93 on June 26.
Over the latest 10 trading sessions, the shares declined C$1.75, or 2.7%.
The stock initially fell to C$61.69 on July 6, a 6.4% decline from June 26, before recovering strongly during July 7–10.
There was no major negative company announcement during the period. The decline appears primarily attributable to profit-taking, consumer-staples sector rotation and uncertainty before second-quarter earnings.
The late-period recovery indicates that investors continued to view Loblaw as a relatively defensive business supported by discount grocery demand, earnings growth and share repurchases.
10-Trading-Day Performance
Date
Closing price
Daily change
June 26
C$65.93
−0.24%
June 29
C$64.59
−2.03%
June 30
C$64.34
−0.39%
July 2
C$62.87
−2.28%
July 3
C$62.45
−0.67%
July 6
C$61.69
−1.22%
July 7
C$63.04
+2.19%
July 8
C$63.92
+1.40%
July 9
C$63.39
−0.83%
July 10
C$64.18
+1.25%
Net movement: C$65.93 → C$64.18 10-session return:−2.7% Low during period: C$61.05 intraday on July 6.
Key Drivers
1. Profit-taking after the June advance
Loblaw had risen from approximately C$63.38 on June 22 to C$66.20 on June 24, a gain of roughly 4.5% in two sessions. That rally left the stock vulnerable to short-term profit-taking.
The June 29–July 6 decline therefore partially reversed the preceding advance rather than representing a clear deterioration in Loblaw’s business.
2. Rotation away from defensive consumer staples
Loblaw is normally treated as a defensive stock because grocery and pharmacy demand is relatively stable.
During periods when investors become more comfortable with economic or market conditions, capital can rotate toward:
technology;
financials;
industrials;
other economically sensitive sectors.
That rotation can temporarily pressure grocery shares even when the company’s underlying earnings outlook has not changed.
3. Uncertainty ahead of second-quarter earnings
On July 2, Loblaw announced that it would release its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30. As earnings approach, investors tend to reassess:
food same-store sales;
Shoppers Drug Mart performance;
gross margins;
operating expenses;
consumer trade-down toward discount banners;
management’s full-year earnings guidance.
The July 2 announcement was not negative, but it may have focused attention on execution risks following Loblaw’s earlier revenue shortfall.
4. Mixed first-quarter fundamentals remained an overhang
Loblaw’s first-quarter revenue increased approximately 4% year over year to C$14.48 billion, but was below the C$14.55 billion analyst consensus cited by Reuters.
Key operating results were mixed:
Q1 2026 metric
Result
Revenue
C$14.48 billion
Revenue growth
Approximately 4% YoY
Food same-store sales
+2.4%
Drug retail same-store sales
+4.1%
Adjusted EPS
C$0.52
Full-year outlook
High-single-digit adjusted earnings growth
Discount banners such as No Frills and Maxi continued to outperform, but cautious consumer spending and pressure on non-essential purchases remained concerns.
5. Share repurchases provided underlying support
Loblaw has authorization to repurchase up to approximately 58.1 million shares, equal to about 5% of outstanding shares, between May 8, 2026 and May 7, 2027.
Share repurchases reduce the public share count and can support earnings per share, although the actual price impact depends on the timing and size of purchases.
Price Pattern
The period had two distinct phases:
June 29–July 6: decline
The stock fell from C$65.93 to C$61.69, a drop of:65.9361.69−65.93×100=−6.4%
The selling was relatively persistent, suggesting profit-taking and sector rotation rather than a one-day reaction to a specific company announcement.
July 7–10: recovery
The stock then recovered from C$61.69 to C$64.18:61.6964.18−61.69×100=+4.0%
The rebound suggests that buyers returned near C$61–C$62, likely attracted by Loblaw’s defensive earnings profile and upcoming share-repurchase support.
Valuation Logic
Loblaw’s valuation depends primarily on whether it can continue growing earnings faster than revenue through:
expansion of discount stores;
private-label sales;
pharmacy and healthcare services;
expense control;
share repurchases;
supply-chain productivity.
The principal valuation constraint is that grocery sales growth is relatively mature. Sustained multiple expansion requires continued margin improvement or stronger-than-expected earnings growth, rather than revenue growth alone.
ATD.TO closed at C$91.19 on July 10, 2026, down C$2.24 or 2.4% over the latest 10 trading sessions, measured from the June 26 close of C$93.43.
The period was primarily a consolidation after the post-earnings surge. ATD had jumped 11.7% on June 23 after stronger-than-expected fiscal Q4 results.
The stock traded as high as approximately C$93.63 on July 8 but failed to retest its recent 52-week high of C$95.15.
The 2.9% decline on July 9 was partly affected by the stock trading ex-dividend, although the C$0.215 dividend represented only about 0.23% of the share price; most of the decline reflected selling and profit-taking.
Overall assessment: modest pullback, not a reversal of the earnings-driven improvement.
10-Trading-Day Performance
Date
Closing price
Daily change
June 26
C$93.43
−0.15%
June 29
C$91.50
−2.07%
June 30
C$90.40
−1.20%
July 2
C$90.27
−0.14%
July 3
C$91.38
+1.23%
July 6
C$90.97
−0.45%
July 7
C$91.81
+0.92%
July 8
C$93.15
+1.46%
July 9
C$90.49
−2.86%
July 10
C$91.19
+0.77%
Net change: C$93.43 → C$91.19 Price return:−2.4% Including the C$0.215 dividend: approximately −2.2% total return.
Key Drivers
1. Profit-taking after strong earnings
ATD’s fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS increased 58.7% year over year to US$0.73, while adjusted EBITDA rose 30.9%. The gains were driven by:
stronger road-fuel margins;
organic convenience-store growth;
acquisitions;
favourable foreign-currency translation.
The earnings release drove the stock from C$82.26 on June 22 to C$91.87 on June 23. The subsequent 10-day decline therefore appears mainly to be investors taking profits following an unusually large one-day revaluation.
2. Resistance near C$94–C$95
ATD reached a 52-week high of C$95.15 on June 24. During the latest period, rallies toward C$93–C$94 attracted sellers.
This suggests the market had already priced in much of the earnings improvement, at least over the short term.
3. July 9 ex-dividend adjustment
ATD traded ex-dividend on July 9 for its C$0.215 quarterly dividend. In theory, this reduces the share price by roughly the dividend amount when the stock begins trading without entitlement to the payment.
However:
dividend impact: approximately C$0.215, or 0.23%;
actual July 9 decline: C$2.66, or 2.86%.
Therefore, the dividend explains only a small part of the decline. The remainder likely represented profit-taking and rejection near technical resistance.
Fundamental Context
Q4 fiscal 2026 metric
Result
YoY change
Adjusted EPS
US$0.73
+58.7%
Adjusted net earnings
US$667M
+51.2%
Gross profit
US$3.5B
+19.4%
Adjusted EBITDA
Not separately stated here
+30.9%
Fiscal-year adjusted EPS
US$3.10
+14.4%
The operating results remain supportive. The main caution is that part of the Q4 improvement came from elevated fuel margins, which can fluctuate materially between quarters. Operating expenses and financing costs also increased.
Scenarios
Scenario
Short-term interpretation
Bull
ATD holds C$90–C$91 and breaks above C$95.15 as investors continue upgrading earnings expectations.
Base
Stock consolidates between approximately C$89 and C$95 while the market waits for evidence that stronger fuel margins and merchandise growth are sustainable.
Bear
A break below C$89 would indicate that the earnings rally is being unwound, potentially exposing the C$86–C$88 area.
Actionable Takeaways
The latest decline was mainly consolidation and profit-taking, rather than evidence of a new company-specific deterioration.
C$90–C$91 is the immediate support area; C$94–C$95.15 is the principal resistance zone.
The next fundamental test is whether ATD can maintain improved fuel margins and convenience-store sales without excessive expense growth.
The positive thesis would be weakened by declining U.S. merchandise sales, normalization of fuel margins, rising leverage or a sustained break below the post-earnings trading range.
