OTTAWA – Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to visit Turkiye this month to meet President Tayyip Erdogan in what would be the first dedicated bilateral visit to the country by a Canadian leader, four sources with knowledge of the visit said.
One of the sources said Carney and Erdogan could discuss the free-trade talks they launched on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara in July, as well as potential energy and defense cooperation. Canadian and Turkish trade ministers agreed this week to accelerate the talks ahead of the leaders’ meeting, two sources said.
The visit would mark Carney’s latest break with Canadian diplomatic convention as he seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on the United States, by far its biggest trading partner, after a collapse in trade talks in August.
Trade war
Carney has vowed to double Canada’s non-U.S. trade over the next decade and has rushed to establish ties with a host of countries, including China and India, with which it had past strains.
He has focused less on human rights than his predecessors to forge ahead, backed by polls showing strong support among Canadians for his efforts to reinforce the economy in the face of U.S. tariffs.
Erdogan, Turkiye’s leader of 23 years — whom rights groups have criticized for a crackdown on the political opposition since 2024 — seeks new markets and collaboration for the regional military power’s burgeoning defense industry. Erdogan says an independent judiciary is probing the opposition and rejects claims it is politically motivated.
Turkiye, an emerging market economy whose biggest trading partner is the European Union, also seeks partnerships and investment in energy, infrastructure and mining.
The sources did not share the dates or agenda of the visit planned later this month.
Carney’s office and Erdogan’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Less focus on rights
Western powers have grown relatively silent on Turkiye’s rights record as it has become a leading defense-industrial power and a bulwark against Russian aggression.
Since last month, a wave of arrests and restrictions has targeted Turkiye’s LGBTQ+ community in a probe the government says aims to protect children and family values, but which has drawn sharp criticism from rights groups and some European officials.
No Canadian prime minister is known to have made a standalone bilateral visit to Turkey in recent decades, though they have met Erdogan and other Turkish leaders on the sidelines of multilateral gatherings, including NATO and G20 summits hosted by Turkiye.
Modest bilateral trade
At the NATO leaders’ summit in July, Carney and Erdogan formally launched negotiations for a free-trade agreement.
That month, Turkiye agreed to join Canada’s Defense Security and Resilience Bank as one of 10 founding member nations of Carney’s multilateral “middle powers” bank.
The two countries’ trade ministers met in June and planned to expand cooperation on renewable and nuclear energy, a Canadian government statement said, listing aerospace, defense and security as areas of potential new partnerships.
Turkiye has held talks with Canadian engineering firm AtkinsRealis ATRL.TO as well as South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation and China’s State Power Investment Corporation about potentially building its second and third nuclear power plants, and Russia’s Rosatom is building its first.
An executive at AtkinsRealis, which holds the exclusive licence for Canadian-designed CANDU reactors, told Reuters this year that it anticipates Turkiye will complete an early review of its CANDU reactors following an information exchange, which may lead to concrete talks for a plant bid.
In a step that helped thaw bilateral ties in 2024, Canada removed weapons-export controls on Turkiye, including on optical technology used in drones that Turkiye exports to dozens of nations.
Yet bilateral trade is small.
Turkiye accounted for less than 0.3 per cent of Canada’s total merchandise trade in 2025, or C$4.34 billion, compared with C$1 trillion with the U.S., Statistics Canada data shows.
Canada mainly exports lentils, aircraft and electronics to Turkiye, and imports medical devices, fishing vessels, aircraft engines and jewelry.
($1 = 1.4227 Canadian dollars)
(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer, Promit Mukherjee and David Ljunggren; Additional reporting by Huseyin Hayatsever in Ankara; Editing by Rod Nickel)
OTTAWA — Canada’s trade surplus widened substantially in August to $4.2 billion, data showed on Tuesday, as exporters rushed to increase shipments to the U.S. before President Donald Trump’s new tariffs took effect.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast that the trade surplus would expand to $1.55 billion from an upwardly revised $787 million.
This change helped Canada post a trade surplus with the U.S. of $11.2 billion, a 19-month high, lifting its share of exports to its biggest trading partner to almost 70 per cent for the first time since September 2025.
Trump’s new tariffs, which cover roughly US$20 billion of Canadian exports to the U.S., came into effect on August 22.
Economists have said that September would show a more accurate impact of the new tariffs, which apply to a variety of products including wine, furniture, dairy products, cement, clothing, fishing rods and hockey equipment.
September will also show the impact of Canadian counter-tariffs on U.S. imports and Trump’s ban on some goods imports from Canada.
Canada’s overall exports increased by 2.5 per cent in August to $77.91 billion, after falling by 2.6 per cent in the prior month. Exports of energy products — refined petroleum products and crude oil — posted the biggest overall gain and increased by 4.7 per cent to $19.03 billion.
Exports of refined petroleum energy products were up 17.4 per cent, driven by a rise in diesel exports to Peru, the United Kingdom, the U.S. and the Netherlands.
Economists said that in light of refinery outages due to the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis, exports of diesel could boost Canadian trade surplus once again in September.
“My general assumption is that diesel exports might be able to offset some of the impact of new tariffs in September,” said Prince Owusu, senior economist with Export Development Canada, a federal export promotion company, adding that Canada has a unique opportunity to ship more refined products to the U.S. and counterbalance the impact new tariffs.
A stronger Canadian dollar also affected the value of exports.
Excluding energy products, exports were up 1.8 per cent. In volume terms, total exports rose 2.5 per cent, StatsCan said.
Exports of consumer goods were up 6.6 per cent, industrial machinery, equipment and parts were up 10.1 per cent and electronic and electrical equipment and parts increased 11.0 per cent in August, the statistics agency said.
Imports were down two per cent to $73.71 billion, with imports of motor vehicles and parts posting the largest decline in August.
As Canada negotiated waves of tariffs across some crucial sectors such as steel, aluminum, autos and lumber for almost 18 months, its export dependence on the U.S. had shrunk while exports to the rest of the world rose as it sought to diversify its trade partners.
After increasing 8.2 per cent in July, exports to countries other than the U.S. fell 8.5 per cent in August, and imports decreased. Its trade deficit with countries other than the U.S. widened to $7.0 billion in August from $5.3 billion in July, StatsCan said.
The Canadian dollar strengthened after the trade data, with the currency trading up 0.05 per cent to $1.4250 to the U.S. dollar, or 70.18 U.S. cents.
—
Reporting by Promit Mukherjee; Editing by Paul Simao and Mark Porter
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Supreme Court grappled Monday with whether local governments can sue oil and gas companies in state court to help cover costs associated with climate change, an issue with potentially billions of dollars at stake.
Key justices appeared wary about the potential sweep of litigation, but torn over the complex questions of federal and state law raised by the case.
Officials in Boulder argue their lawsuit is an attempt to hold energy companies Suncor and ExxonMobil accountable for their contributions to climate change.
They say that worsening disasters such as floods and wildfires put a heavy financial burden on local communities, and the industry should bear part of that cost.
The city and county of Boulder first sued the oil companies in 2018, years before the 2021 Marshall Fire destroyed nearly 1,100 homes and left two people dead. Total damage was estimated at US$2 billion, the costliest wildfire in Colorado history.
The companies say that a flurry of lawsuits in state courts is not the way to deal with the global issue.
Boulder case is part of a wave of legal action against oil companies
Governments from largely blue-leaning areas around the country have filed similar lawsuits seeking damages that could total billions of dollars, part of a wave of legal action worldwide seeking to leverage action through the courts.
“Presumably, if you prevail, the next day, a municipality in every single state will file a lawsuit,” said Chief Justice John Roberts. “How do you think that will work out on the ground?”
Justice Brett Kavanaugh said a win by Boulder could bankrupt the oil companies and other potential defendants.
“I mean, anyone is a potential defendant for a suit like this. Any manufacturer, any business,’’ he said.
A win for the oil and gas companies at the Supreme Court, meanwhile, could shut down dozens of similar cases filed in recent years.
Suncor and Exxon argue that the Clean Air Act gives the federal government – not the states – the power to regulate emissions.
They have the support of the Trump administration, which argues the lawsuits are an unconstitutional attempt to regulate planet-warming emissions and impose Colorado’s state law beyond its borders.
But Roberts and other justices pointed out that state courts consider lawsuits about a myriad of issues that have nationwide reach. “I guess I’m not quite sure what makes this situation different from those,” Roberts said.
The court is also weighing a jurisdictional question that could allow it an “off-ramp” to avoid deciding the issues right away. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson seemed like a vote in favor of that path.
“Why shouldn’t we wait and hear all of these claims once the state courts are done?” she asked.
Alito absent due to ethics recusal
The case was heard without Justice Samuel Alito, who recused himself just a week before arguments after facing calls to step aside because he owns stock in oil companies. That raises the possibility of a tie vote.
A deadlock would leave in place a decision from Colorado’s highest court allowing the case to proceed.
Attorney Kannon Shanmugam, representing the industry, urged the justices to reverse that ruling. He said the Boulder case was attempting to use the courts to decide a public policy issue that is properly up to Congress and other elected officials.
“Climate change is certainly one of the most pressing issues” facing the country, but the lawsuit “is exactly the wrong way to go about” addressing it, he said.
Principal Deputy Solicitor General Sarah Harris said Boulder’s case “egregiously exceeds” the state’s authority. The county essentially declares itself a victim of actions that occurred largely out of state, she said.
But Kevin Russell, an attorney representing Boulder, argued that state lawsuits can address damage in Colorado, regardless where the fossil fuels are produced.
Boulder is not trying to regulate greenhouse gas emissions or stop the companies from continuing to produce oil and gas, Russell said. Instead officials are seeking to hold the companies accountable for allegedly misleading the public about their contribution to global warming by burning fossil fuels, he said.
“Chapter 3” of the case trilogy, after tobacco and opioids
Justice Elena Kagan compared the climate case to previous state-based lawsuits against the tobacco industry and opioid makers.
“This is Chapter 3,” she said, noting the similarities of states claiming harms from products produced nationally and even internationally.
“This is a different book,″ replied Shanmugam, the industry lawyer. Harms claimed by Boulder “are diffused nationwide and indeed worldwide,” he said.
Trump’s Republican administration has rolled back environmental regulations, including a move last month by the Environmental Protection Agency to repeal rules that limit emissions from power plants fueled by coal and natural gas. States and cities have already sued over the repeal of the power plant rule.
The conservative-majority Supreme Court has been skeptical of environmental regulations in the past, including in a 2022 decision limiting the EPA’s authority to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.
A decision is expected in the coming months.
___
Lindsay Whitehurst and Matthew Daly, The Associated Press
Canadian agrichemical company Nutrien Ltd. NTR-T +1.50%increase said on Monday it will indefinitely shut its Trinidad nitrogen operations at the Point Lisas facility after a review of strategic alternatives, citing continuing natural gas supply constraints and uncertainty in the country.
The decision comes nearly a year after Nutrien began a controlled shutdown of the facility on Oct. 23, 2025, citing port access restrictions imposed by Trinidad and Tobago’s National Energy Corporation and a lack of reliable and economic natural gas supply.
Nutrien said those challenges had reduced the free cash flow contribution from its Trinidad operations over an extended period, leading it to determine that an indefinite shutdown was the best course of action.
The world’s largest potash producer said the move was expected to improve its free cash flow and the return on invested capital.
Nutrien said the shutdown would not affect its 2026 nitrogen sales outlook, with its North American operations expected to meet customer demand.
The company produced about 85,000 metric tons of ammonia and 55,000 metric tons of urea per month at its Trinidad operations.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has issued U.S. steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs CLF-N +1.31%increase an ultimatum to comply with its employment guarantees under The Investment Canada Act.
Last week, Cliffs said it intends to lay off up to 500 people in Canada as it shuts down its galvanized steel business in the country, blaming the decision on its inability to sell into the U.S. market owing to 50-per-cent tariffs imposed by the U.S.
In 2024, the Cleveland-based company acquired Stelco Holdings Inc. for $3.4-billion.
When the federal government approved the acquisition, it imposed a series of legally binding conditions, including maintaining for five years at least the same number of unionized employees in Canada, and the vast majority of non-unionized workers.
On Monday, Ms. Joly sent a letter to Paul Simon, president and general counsel with Stelco reminding the company of its legal obligations and again floated the possibility of Ottawa taking legal action against Cliffs if the company doesn’t comply.
“Where an investor fails to comply with an undertaking, the Act provides remedies for breaches, including an application to the superior court for orders that may include directing compliance, divestiture, or monetary penalties,” she said.
“I trust that such steps will not be necessary. Accordingly, I ask that Cleveland-Cliffs provide my officials with its plan for complying with all undertakings provided under the Act, within 5 business days of the date of this letter.”
Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled that legal action against Cliffs might be coming.
Halifax-based Emera Inc. EMA-T -2.52%decrease is bidding to build a national champion in the utility sector by merging with Calgary natural gas and electricity infrastructure owner Canadian Utilities Ltd. CU-T -0.61%decrease and parent ATCO Ltd. ACO-X-T +9.72%increase in a $35-billion union.
Emera, formerly a Nova Scotia Crown corporation, announced a friendly all-stock offer for theAlberta peers controlled by the Southern family on Tuesday that would create one of the 20 largest utilities in North America. The combined companies would have an enterprise value – their debt plus equity – of $72-billion, which their executives said would rank as the largest merger in Canadian history.
“Our goal is to create a Canadian champion,” said Scott Balfour, Emera’s chief executive, in an interview. He said the merger will create a company with the scale and financial strength needed to build networks that support projects such as data centres, new natural gas pipelines and integrated provincial electrical grids.
“Natural gas and electrical infrastructure define our industrial policy, and will power our future,” said Nancy Southern, chair and CEO at ATCO. She said the combined companies will be better positioned to serve power-hungry markets such as Alberta and expand into underserved regions such as Northern Canada.
The transaction unites Emera utilities in Nova Scotia, Florida and the Caribbean with Canadian Utilities operations in Alberta and Australia.
The three companies have been in talks for 15 months and Mr. Balfour said Prime Minister Mark Carney’s campaign to attract up to $1-trillion in infrastructure investment encouraged all parties to strike a deal that created a domestic powerhouse. Emera’s CEO, a native of Oakville, Ont., said: “This is a moment for Canada.”
If shareholders and regulators approve the merger, current Emera shareholders would own 60 per cent of the combined company and Canadian Utilities and ATCO shareholders would own 40 per cent. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2027.
If the deal is approved, Emera plans to spin out ATCO’s existing housing, defence and ports businesses into a new, publicly listed company, led by Ms. Southern and controlled by her family holding company, Sentgraf Enterprises Ltd. Ms. Southern said the value of these holdings is not reflected in ATCO’s current share price, which is one of the reasons she supports the Emera transaction.
Sentgraf would own approximately 7 per cent of Emera if the transaction is approved, making the Southern family’s company one of the largest institutional investors in the utility.
Emera is offering 0.755 of its share for each of Canadian Utilities non-voting class A shares and 0.819 of its shares for each Canadian Utilities class B shares. ATCO shareholders will receive 0.86 of a share in Emera for each of their shares.
Emera has a $21-billion market capitalization and said the deal values ATCO and Canadian Utilities’ shares at $14.3-billion, giving the merger an equity value of $35.3-billion.
The terms of the deal would mean Canadian Utilities shareholders receive a 20 per cent increase in dividends if the merger is approved.
The deal will see Ms. Southern join the Emera board as co-chair alongside Karen Sheriff, the current chair. Mr. Balfour will be CEO and the head office will remain in Halifax, while Canadian Utilities CEO Bob Myles will join the Emera executive team and continue to run operations in Alberta.
Mr. Balfour first pitched Ms. Southern on a merger over a lunch at the Calgary Stampede in 2025. The two met at the Ranchmen’s Club, a well-known business watering hole, and Ms. Southern said: “Scott asked me to lunch, yet I ended up paying.”
The two CEOs met at a time when large U.S. utilities were consolidating, in part to meet demands for investment in the electrical grids from data centre clients. In May, NextEra Energy Inc. and Dominion Energy Inc. announced a US$66.8-billion merger. In January, Constellation Energy Corp. closed a US$16.4-billion takeover of Calpine Corp.
Ms. Southern said after Mr. Balfour’s initial approach 15 months ago, ATCO, Canadian Utilities and their advisers looked at other potential partners before deciding a merger with Emera was the best way forward. She said inside ATCO, the merger was code named “Project Maple” because “we felt it was important to Canada.”
Emera used mountains as code names for the three companies in internal documents to successfully avoid leaks, with Canadian Utilities known as Cascades, ATCO nicknamed Alpine and Emera called Everest.
Emera hired investment bank Lazard and Bank of Nova Scotia as its financial advisers, along with law firm Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP.
ATCO and Canadian Utilities used New York-based Gordon Dyal & Co. as their financial adviser and law firm Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP.
BMO Capital Markets and Stikeman Elliott LLP worked for Canadian Utilities board’s special committee. CIBC Capital Markets and Norton Rose Fulbright Canada LLP advised ATCO’s special committee, and Felesky Flynn LLP provided Canadian tax counsel to the company.
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August amid an influx of goods related to the artificial intelligence build-out and the vagaries of import tariffs, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
Imports swelled 4.3% for the month, pushing the total imbalance to $105.6 billion. That marked a 13.7% jump from July and was ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for $102 billion.
It also was the steepest deficit since the all-time gap in March 2025, recorded just before President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
Though the monthly total was up, the year-to-date deficit of $138.2 billion was off nearly 20% from the same period a year ago.
“Rising prices overstate the moves, but nonetheless net trade is set to drag on Q3 GDP growth,” said Oren Klachkin, financial economist at Nationwide. “We see this as a sign of strong domestic demand, not economic weakness.”
Imports as a rule generally subtract from gross domestic product calculations. However, if the imports reflect stronger demand and consumption, they can be offset elsewhere.
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs cut its tracking estimate for third-quarter economic growth to 3.1%, down 0.3 percentage point from its prior estimate. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker lowered its estimate to 3.7% following the trade report, down 0.1 percentage point from the last update.
WTI closed Friday, Oct. 2 at US$91.11/bbl, down 1.9% on the day and 1.6% for the week. Reuters
My 2-week base case is US$88–96, with an approximate centre near US$92–93. This is a scenario estimate, not a market quote.
The main upside risk remains Iran/Hormuz and broader Middle East supply disruption; the main downside forces are recovering Gulf exports, emergency reserve releases and record U.S. production.
Within your five stocks, CNQ, SU and IMO should have the strongest short-term sensitivity to WTI. ENB and PPL are predominantly infrastructure businesses and should react less directly.
Near US$90+ WTI, the earnings/cash-flow backdrop for Canadian producers remains favourable; the bigger short-term risk is geopolitical de-escalation causing the oil-risk premium to unwind.
WTI: my next-two-week range
Scenario
WTI Oct. 3–16
Probability*
Key trigger
Bull
US$98–108
~25%
Iran escalation, Hormuz disruption, strikes on energy infrastructure
Base
US$88–96
~55%
Supply risks persist but Gulf exports continue recovering
*My analytical scenario weights, not market-implied probabilities.
WTI was US$90.42 on Sept. 30, surged to US$92.87 on Oct. 1 after reports of additional U.S. military deployment to the Middle East and Chinese fuel-export restrictions, then fell to US$91.11 on Oct. 2 as emergency reserve actions eased some supply fears. That sequence illustrates how heavily the current price is being driven by geopolitical headlines rather than normal supply/demand changes alone. Reuters
Key Drivers
1. Iran / Strait of Hormuz — strongest upside risk
The market is still pricing a substantial geopolitical premium. Gulf export disruption has been severe enough that analysts recently raised their 2026 WTI average forecast to US$83.90, with disruption around Hormuz cited as the primary reason. Reuters
If military action expands again, WTI could move through US$100 quickly because the market would price the risk of another interruption to crude and refined-product traffic.
WTI impact: strongly bullish.
2. Gulf exports are recovering — major bearish counterweight
Middle East exports have improved. Reuters reported September regional crude exports of about 16.33 million bpd, the highest since the conflict began, supported by Saudi use of the East-West pipeline and renewed Yanbu loadings. Reuters
This is why I do not use US$100+ as my base case.
WTI impact: bearish below US$95.
3. OPEC+ meeting — Oct. 4
OPEC+ is expected to keep November production targets unchanged. Output among key producers remains significantly below pre-war levels, however, meaning actual available supply matters more than nominal quotas at present. Reuters
A surprise increase in supply would pressure WTI; maintaining current targets would be roughly neutral to mildly supportive.
4. U.S. inventories
U.S. commercial crude inventories were 427.3 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 25, up 0.92 million barrels week over week and about 10.8 million barrels above the year-earlier level. U.S. Energy Information Administration
ENB / PPL = pipelines/infrastructure → mainly volume, toll and contract sensitivity rather than direct WTI sensitivity
Two-week scenario sensitivity
Stock
WTI US$82–88
WTI US$88–96
WTI US$98–108
Oil sensitivity
CNQ
-8% to -14%
-3% to +6%
+6% to +12%
Very high
SU
-6% to -11%
-2% to +5%
+5% to +10%
High
IMO
-5% to -9%
-2% to +4%
+4% to +8%
High
PPL
-3% to -6%
-1% to +3%
+2% to +5%
Moderate-low
ENB
-2% to -4%
-1% to +2%
+1% to +3%
Low
These are scenario ranges I estimate, not analyst price targets or back-tested statistical forecasts. Equity markets, CAD/USD, interest rates, company announcements and broader TSX movements can overwhelm WTI sensitivity over a two-week period.
Company-by-company
CNQ — Canadian Natural Resources
Strongest pure producer exposure in this group.
Canadian Natural’s updated 2026 guidance calls for approximately 1.615–1.665 million boe/day, including roughly 1.188–1.229 million bbl/day of liquids. Canadian Natural Resources
At WTI above US$90, CNQ’s enormous liquids production produces substantial incremental cash flow.
Two-week view: most attractive sensitivity to an oil breakout, but also likely the biggest downside reaction if WTI suddenly falls toward US$85.
Suncor combines approximately 860,000 bbl/day of upstream production with a major refining network; refinery capacity reached roughly 511,000 bpd in 2026. Suncor
That integration matters.
High crude prices increase upstream earnings, while refining can provide diversification when refined-product margins are strong. Suncor also targets a corporate WTI breakeven of approximately US$38/bbl by 2028, illustrating the company’s considerable operating margin at current oil prices. Suncor
Two-week view: strong positive WTI exposure with somewhat more downside protection than a pure producer.
IMO — Imperial Oil
Imperial is also integrated.
Its 2026 guidance calls for approximately 441,000–460,000 boe/day upstream production and 395,000–405,000 bpd refinery throughput. ImperialOil
That means:
Higher WTI → stronger Kearl/Cold Lake upstream realizations.
Two-week view: positive, but IMO may move somewhat less dramatically than CNQ because refining moderates direct crude-price sensitivity.
PPL — Pembina Pipeline
Pembina should not be treated as a normal oil producer.
Its economics depend much more on pipeline volumes, processing, fractionation, contracts and marketing.
There is nevertheless some commodity exposure. Pembina recently raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to C$4.35–4.55 billion, partly because of stronger crude marketing and frac-spread contributions; approximately 65% of its 2026 frac-spread exposure was hedged. Pembina
Therefore:
WTI US$100 → positive sentiment and marketing effects.
WTI US$85 → negative sentiment, but far less earnings damage than CNQ/SU/IMO.
Two-week view: modestly oil-sensitive.
ENB — Enbridge
ENB has the lowest direct WTI sensitivity of the five.
Enbridge’s liquids pipelines carried approximately 30% of North American crude production, with expansions supported substantially by long-term arrangements. Enbridge
Its diversified pipeline, gas transmission and utility businesses generated C$4.78 billion of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, including C$2.34 billion from Liquids Pipelines. Enbridge
For 2026 Enbridge guides toward C$20.2–20.8 billion adjusted EBITDA and C$5.70–6.10 DCF/share. Enbridge
Therefore, ENB usually benefits more from high volumes and stable production growth than from a US$5–10 short-term WTI move.
Two-week view: defensive member of this group.
Relative WTI sensitivity
For the next two weeks, I would rank the degree of exposure — not investment merit — approximately:
CNQ → SU → IMO → PPL → ENB
That distinction becomes particularly important if WTI moves sharply.
If WTI breaks US$100
The largest fundamental earnings leverage should be:
CNQ / SU / IMO
PPL benefits more indirectly.
ENB gets the smallest incremental earnings boost.
If WTI falls below US$85
The greatest equity pressure would likely fall on:
CNQ / SU / IMO
ENB should show the greatest earnings insulation of this group because its cash flows are much less directly linked to spot crude.
What to watch Oct. 3–16
The most important trigger arrives immediately: OPEC+ on Sunday, Oct. 4. After that, watch U.S. crude inventory data on Oct. 7 and Oct. 15, daily reports on Iranian/Hormuz shipping, Saudi/Gulf export restoration, emergency reserve releases, U.S. production near 14 million bpd and the CAD/USD exchange rate.
Base-case conclusion
My central expectation is:
WTI: US$88–96
with frequent intraday moves of US$2–4 possible because geopolitical risk is unusually high.
If WTI holds above US$90, the near-term backdrop remains most supportive for CNQ, SU and IMO. ENB and PPL remain more stable infrastructure exposures rather than short-term oil-price trades.
Thesis falsifier: a credible U.S.–Iran de-escalation combined with normalization of Gulf exports and consecutive U.S. inventory builds would materially weaken this forecast and could push WTI toward US$82–88.
China has shut about a quarter of its banks as Beijing accelerates efforts to create fewer, better-capitalized lenders amid the country’s economic slowdown.
Fitch Ratings said smaller, rural banks remain China’s financial system weak spot, citing deteriorating asset quality, thin capital buffers and governance shortcomings.
China is accelerating its consolidation of smaller, mostly rural banks in a bid to shore up its financial system, amid ongoing concerns over an economic slowdown in the country.
Beijing’s policy-led consolidation saw a record 670 lenders closed in 2025 — about one-quarter of banks in the country — as authorities ramped up mergers and dissolutions to create fewer, larger and better-capitalized institutions, according to Fitch Ratings analysis.
Small and rural commercial banks “remain the weakest part of the system” in China, Fitch said in a report, which flagged their “poor asset quality, low capitalization and governance shortcomings,” especially in less developed regions of the country.
The rating agency said the return on assets among rural banks fell to 0.45% in the first half, down from 0.56% in 2021. Meanwhile, nonperforming loans among such lenders rose to 2.8% in the same period, ahead of the sector average of 1.5%, with greater exposure to smaller companies, property developers and local government funding vehicles.
The consolidation push is aimed at boosting oversight, curbing regulatory arbitrage and improving transparency, Fitch said, noting that stress at smaller lenders is unlikely to lead to systemwide contagion, pointing to their largely localized operations and limited interbank exposure.
The measures could “ultimately reshape competitive dynamics among smaller lenders, although their structural weaknesses may persist in the near term,” the rating agency added.
The move comes amid ongoing signs of strain in the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s gross domestic product grew 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2022, while industrial profits came in at 4.2% annually in August, their weakest pace this year.
