Category: Uncategorized

https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/stephenledrew?wix-vod-video-id=BmNS315CkkY&wix-vod-comp-id=comp-mrpslmqg

• TSX Composite: 36,553.92, −280.33 (−0.76%)
• Gold Dec futures: $4,529.9, −$134.1 (−2.88%) — same print Reuters used
• WTI settle: $83.40, −$0.13 (−0.16%)
• Capped indexes in the screenshot: confirmed for tech 324.49 (−1.17%) and discretionary 395.46 (+0.45%). Materials ETF XMA −2.78% lines up with TTMT −2.80%.

Gold / Materials — confirmed
Warsh at Jackson Hole: inflation not improving enough, 2% PCE is a “firm, fixed” target, Fed “has work to do.” Sept hike odds moved from ~35–36% to ~55–60% (sources differ inside that band; I over-specified 58–60%). Dollar up, gold sold. Materials followed gold miners. Extra fact I underweighted: some of the worst Composite names were uranium (Denison −7.1%, NexGen −7.0%, Energy Fuels −6.5%), not only gold. Baystreet miner prints (Eldorado ~−5.7%, Torex ~−5.2%, AbraSilver ~−6%) are recap figures, not exchange official lasts.

Energy / oil — confirmed, nuance added
Friday oil move was tiny. The weekly WTI drop was the real story (~−4% from $87.06 the prior Friday). Driver: Hormuz risk premium fading (Oman–Iran corridor talk + uneven but recovering Gulf flows). Energy index −1.0% is larger than WTI −0.16%, so it was oil + risk-off in producers, not a one-for-one oil print. Spartan Delta ~−4% is a recap, not independently verified here.

Tech — corrected
Keel on TSX: $4.49, −7.80% (Nasdaq KEEL was −8.26% to $3.22). I had rounded that to “~8%.” Company-specific: Q2 revenue halved, still pre-lease on the 2.2 GW AI/data-centre conversion. That, plus weaker U.S. chip/AI-infra tape, explains most of TTTK −1.17%. Celestica ~−5.5% was a secondary recap — treat as unverified.

Financials / discretionary — holds
Banks bid enough to leave TTFS +0.16% after earnings week + the GDP print. Discretionary +0.45% confirmed. Baystreet: Canadian Tire +$1.81 to $190.32, Magna +$0.73 to $91.77 — consistent with the sector, still recap-level.

Staples / industrials / healthcare / nat gas
No better single-name catalyst found. Small moves. Treat as tape/rotation, not a headline. Nat gas $2.888 (−0.89%) matches the screenshot and a weekly desk table; no separate gas shock.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2537604700000084

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2537604700000084

DO NOT TRUST CANADA’S LIBERAL MEDIA!

It is not about POLITICS…Its about PROTECTING your hard EARNED savings!

Summary

• The Bank of Canada rate decision on September 2 is the week’s most important domestic event, particularly for banks, REITs, utilities and the Canadian dollar.
• Canadian and U.S. employment reports arrive September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, creating significant rate, currency and equity-market risk.
• U.S. ISM manufacturing and services data will test whether economic growth remains strong enough to support further Federal Reserve tightening.
• The Strait of Hormuz/Iran situation is the largest geopolitical risk for WTI, Canadian energy shares, transportation and inflation expectations.
• Markets will also position for Canada’s September 8 retaliatory tariffs and the September 6 OPEC+ meeting.

Scheduled Economic Events

Date	Event	Why it matters for the TSX
Sept. 1	U.S. ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS job openings	Tests industrial activity, inflation pressure and labour demand
Sept. 2	U.S. ADP employment	Early—but imperfect—signal for Friday’s payroll report
Sept. 2	Bank of Canada rate decision, 9:45 a.m. ET	Direct impact on CAD, banks, REITs, utilities and indebted consumers
Sept. 3	U.S. ISM Services	Important for inflation because services prices and wages remain persistent
Sept. 4	Canada Labour Force Survey, 8:30 a.m. ET	Changes expectations for the next BoC decision
Sept. 4	U.S. nonfarm payrolls, 8:30 a.m. ET	Key driver of U.S. yields, the dollar, gold and technology valuations

Official schedules: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

1. Bank of Canada Decision—September 2

This is the week’s most important Canadian event.

If the BoC is dovish or cuts

Likely initial effects:

• Canadian dollar weakens.
• Bond yields decline.
• REITs, utilities and telecoms strengthen.
• Banks receive mixed effects: lower credit risk but pressure on lending margins.
• Gold’s Canadian-dollar price receives currency support.

If the BoC holds with a hawkish statement

Likely initial effects:

• Canadian dollar strengthens.
• Bond yields rise.
• REITs and utilities weaken.
• Rate-sensitive consumer shares face pressure.
• Banks could benefit from margins but face higher future credit risk.

Most exposed TSX groups

Sector	Representative names
Banks	RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA
REITs	CAR.UN, BEI.UN, REI.UN, CHP.UN
Utilities	FTS, EMA, CU
Telecom	BCE, T, RCI.B
Rate-sensitive consumer	CTC.A, ATZ, DOO

2. Canada and U.S. Employment—September 4

Both employment reports are released simultaneously, increasing the probability of a sharp CAD/USD move.

Strong U.S. employment

• Raises the probability of a September Fed increase.
• Pushes Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher.
• Negative for gold and high-valuation technology.
• Potentially positive for companies with substantial U.S. revenue.
• Could pressure SHOP, CSU and other long-duration growth shares.

Weak U.S. employment

• Reduces expectations for additional tightening.
• Supports bonds, gold, REITs and technology.
• May raise recession concerns if job weakness is severe.

Canadian employment

A weak Canadian report combined with strong U.S. payrolls would be the most negative combination for the Canadian dollar. A strong Canadian report could reduce expectations of further BoC easing.

3. U.S. ISM Surveys

Manufacturing—September 1

Key components:

• New orders.
• Employment.
• Production.
• Prices paid.

A strong headline accompanied by high prices would be inflationary and potentially negative for bonds, gold and technology valuations.

A strong report with easing prices would be more constructive for industrial and technology shares.

Services—September 3

Services prices are especially important because they are heavily influenced by wages. Persistent services inflation would reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message.

Geopolitical Focus

1. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—highest geopolitical priority

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stated that Iran has “full control” over the Strait and that current restrictions will remain until U.S. military actions end. Reuters

Watch for:

• Vessel seizures or harassment.
• Shipping delays or rerouting.
• Iranian demands for transit payments.
• New U.S. sanctions.
• Insurance and tanker-rate increases.
• U.S. naval escorts or military action.

TSX implications

Development	Likely sector effect
Shipping disruption	Positive for WTI and Canadian energy
De-escalation	Negative for oil’s geopolitical premium
Higher tanker costs	Negative for transportation and refiners
Oil-driven inflation	Negative for REITs, utilities and consumer shares

Most sensitive names: CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, MEG, TOU and ARX. Pipelines such as ENB and TRP would likely be less sensitive than oil producers.

What would falsify the risk?

• Verified normal vessel traffic.
• No seizures or material shipping delays.
• A credible U.S.–Iran agreement.
• Stable tanker-insurance costs.
• WTI failing to rise despite confirmed disruption.

2. Russia–Ukraine energy infrastructure

Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries. Russia extended its diesel-export ban through September 30 after refinery outages and domestic shortages. Reuters

Potential effects:

• Higher global diesel and refining margins.
• Support for North American refiners.
• Greater European fuel-price inflation.
• Higher transportation and agricultural costs.

The effect on crude oil is mixed: refinery outages can reduce Russian demand for crude while export restrictions tighten refined-product supply.

3. U.S.–Canada Tariffs

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect September 8, immediately after the Labour Day weekend. Markets will position during the week ending September 4.

The tariffs cover approximately 700 U.S. products, with rates of 15%, 25% and 50%. Categories include steel, aluminum, clothing, prepared foods, appliances, tools, electronics and furniture. Reuters

Companies and sectors to monitor

• Auto suppliers: MG, LNR, MRE
• Consumer retail: CTC.A
• Food retail: L, WN, MRU, EMP.A
• Industrials and transportation: CNR, CP, TFII
• Banks: indirect exposure through business credit and employment
• Materials: steel, aluminum, lumber and packaging exposure

The key market question is whether exemptions, remission procedures or renewed negotiations emerge before September 8.

4. OPEC+ Positioning

The core OPEC+ producers meet on September 6, just outside the requested week. Traders will begin positioning before Friday’s close.

OPEC+ previously approved an approximately 188,000-barrel-per-day increase for September. The market will focus on whether the group:

• Pauses additional increases.
• Signals further production growth.
• Addresses weak compliance.
• Responds to Iran and Russian supply disruptions.

OPEC meeting notice

Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios

Scenario	Main developments	Likely TSX impact
Bull	Dovish BoC; balanced jobs data; Hormuz remains operational; tariff exemptions emerge	Broader participation led by financials, REITs, utilities and technology
Base	BoC holds; mixed employment; tariff uncertainty continues; oil remains volatile	Range-bound TSX with rapid sector rotation
Bear	Hawkish BoC/Fed signals; weak Canadian jobs; Hormuz disruption; tariff escalation	Consumer, auto and rate-sensitive sectors weaken; energy may outperform

Actionable Takeaways

The priority order for the week is:

1. Bank of Canada decision—September 2
2. U.S. and Canadian jobs—September 4
3. Iran/Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions
4. U.S.–Canada tariff exemptions or escalation
5. U.S. ISM prices and employment components
6. OPEC+ positioning ahead of September 6

The main cross-market signals are CAD/USD, Canadian and U.S. two-year yields, WTI, gold and tariff-sensitive auto suppliers.

Educational analysis only. Scheduled events can change, and geopolitical developments are inherently unpredictable.

Monday August 31

China’s PMI

Japan’s retail sales and industrial production

Germany CPI and retail sales

U.K. markets closed

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Tuesday September 1

Japan’s capital spending and manufacturing PMI

Euro zone CPI, manufacturing PMI and jobless rate

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for July.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for July.

Also: Canadian and U.S. auto sales for August.

Earnings include: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.; Dell Technologies Inc.; Medtronic PLC; Palo Alto Networks Inc.

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Wednesday September 2

Japan’s consumer confidence

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s rate decision with Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference to follow.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for July.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.; Major Drilling Group International Inc.; Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc.; Snowflake Inc.

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Thursday September 3

Japan’s and Euro zone’s services and composite PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international merchandise trade for July.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour productivity for Q2.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 29.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity for Q2. The Street is expecting an annualized rate rise of 1.4 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for July.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Revelio Public Labor Statistics for August.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services and Compsoite PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for August.

Earnings include: BRP Inc.; Ciena Corp.; Enghouse Systems Ltd.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.; VersaBank; Zscaler Inc.

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Friday September 4

Japan’s household spending

Germany’s factory orders

Euro zone’s retail sales

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for August. The Street is expecting an increase of 17,500 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 6.4 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August. Consensus is a gain of 58,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 4.1 per cent and average hourly wages gaining 3.1 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for August.

President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. has entered an agreement with Venezuela to take control of 65 billion barrels of the South American country’s oil reserves.

Trump in a social media post announced the agreement he said was negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez.

“The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!” Trump wrote.

The Venezuelan government’s press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The announcement of the deal comes nearly nine months after the U.S. military at Trump’s direction carried out an operation to capture Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and spirit him to the United States to face federal narcoterrorism and drug trafficking charges.

Trump faces mounting pressure to address high gas prices as the war in Iran on Friday reached a six-month milestone with no conclusion in sight. The U.S. has tapped its strategic petroleum reserves, which in early August fell below 300 million barrels, down by more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026.

The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has led to a dramatic slowdown of Gulf oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which about 20 per cent of the world petroleum passed through prior to the conflict.

The average price of gas in the U.S. stood at about US$4.09 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA. The average price was US$3.21 at the same time last year.

Trump in his social media post Friday evening alluded to the Venezuela deal being part of a private partnership. The White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment about the private sector partners involved in the deal, and details on how the arrangement would work were not provided.

Persuading big American oil companies to return the region could face headwinds given and decades of badly damaged infrastructure.

Days after the ouster of Maduro, Trump gathered oil executives at the White House and called on them to rush back into Venezuela. Executives expressed interest in the opportunity but there was also a measure of caution given their past experience in the country.

Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil company, said at that moment he saw the country as “un-investable.”

But Trump has insisted that his administration has brought a measure of stability to Venezuela.

He has argued that Venezuela stole U.S. oil when former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s moved decades ago to nationalize hundreds of foreign-owned assets, including those owned by American oil companies.

Rodriguez, in one of her early moves after taking power, signed a law that opens the nation’s oil sector to privatization and reversed a bedrock tenet of the self-proclaimed socialist movement that had ruled the country for more than two decades.

Rubio said on X that the agreement would usher in US$100-billion in private investment into Venezuela and lead to lower gas prices in the United States.

“This deal is a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people,” Rubio posted.

Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil in the ground. That’s about 17 per cent of the world’s supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Unlike other parts of the world, where geologists have to search for untapped oil, the reserves under Venezuela’s soil are largely mapped and known, experts say. But because of dilapidated infrastructure, the country only produces about 1 per cent of the world’s oil.

Summary

• Gold declined approximately 3.0%–3.3% over the five trading sessions ended August 28, 2026, depending on the spot-price fixing and closing time used.
• U.S. gold futures fell 3.25% to US$4,478.10 per ounce, their largest weekly decline since June.
• The main catalyst was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, which increased expectations of a September interest-rate increase.
• Rising short-term Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar reduced gold’s appeal.
• Profit-taking intensified because gold had reached a three-month high of approximately US$4,681 earlier in the week.

Five-day movement

Measure	Approximate result
Monday spot-gold close	US$4,639/oz
Monday intraday high	US$4,681/oz
Friday late spot price	Approximately US$4,470/oz
September futures settlement	US$4,478.10/oz
Five-day decline	Approximately 3.0%–3.3%

Different gold benchmarks—spot, LBMA fixing and COMEX futures—close at different times, explaining the small variation.

Why gold declined

1. Federal Reserve turned more hawkish

Warsh said the Fed still had “more work to do” unless inflation was clearly moving toward its 2% target. Markets increased the probability of a September rate increase to approximately 62%. Reuters

Higher interest rates hurt gold because gold pays no interest. When Treasury yields rise, holding bonds becomes relatively more attractive.

2. U.S. Treasury yields increased

Short-term U.S. yields rose after Warsh’s speech. This increased the opportunity cost of owning gold and triggered selling in precious metals.

3. U.S. dollar strengthened

The U.S. dollar rose as investors anticipated higher U.S. rates. Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies and commonly pressures demand.

4. Profit-taking after a strong rally

Gold reached its highest level since May on Monday. The rally had been supported by:

• A weaker U.S. dollar.
• Iran-related geopolitical concerns.
• U.S.–Canada trade tensions.
• Treasury bond-buyback proposals.
• Safe-haven buying.

Once the Fed outlook changed, traders locked in gains after three consecutive positive weeks.

5. Safe-haven demand was insufficient

Trade tensions and geopolitical risks continued to support gold fundamentally. However, during this five-day period, the interest-rate and dollar effects outweighed safe-haven demand.

Canadian-dollar impact

The Canadian dollar weakened to approximately C$1.39 per US$1. A weaker Canadian dollar cushioned the decline for Canadian gold holders because:$$\text{Gold in CAD}=\text{Gold in USD}\times\text{USD/CAD}$$

Therefore, gold’s percentage decline in Canadian dollars was likely smaller than its roughly 3.2% U.S.-dollar decline. The exact result depends on the exchange-rate fixing used.

Short-term scenarios

Scenario	Key development	Possible gold response
Bull	Softer inflation or renewed geopolitical escalation	Recovery toward US$4,600–US$4,680
Base	Rate uncertainty persists	Consolidation around US$4,400–US$4,550
Bear	September rate increase becomes highly probable; dollar strengthens further	Decline toward US$4,250–US$4,400

These are analytical ranges, not forecasts or price targets.

What would disprove the negative thesis?

• U.S. inflation weakens materially.
• Treasury yields reverse lower.
• The U.S. dollar declines.
• The Fed reduces the probability of a September increase.
• Gold recovers above approximately US$4,600, followed by a break above US$4,681.

Actionable Takeaways

The gold decline was primarily a monetary-policy correction, not the disappearance of geopolitical or fiscal risks. Near-term direction will depend on U.S. inflation, Treasury yields, the dollar and the probability of a September Fed rate increase.

Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.