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• China’s PPI rose 5% year on year in September, sharply up from August’s 3.8% and beating the 4.5% rise expected.
• CPI rose 0.9%, up from 0.8% in August, but missing the 1% expected by economists.

China’s producer price index climbed at its fastest pace in over four years, rising 5% in September as higher fuel prices pushed up costs for businesses.

The increase was higher than the 4.5% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and sharply up from the 3.8% seen in the previous month.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said higher prices were also seen in the country’s coal sector, due to increased demand for coal for winter heating, temporary tight supply in major coal-producing areas, and expectations of rising international coal prices.

Consumer prices saw a 0.9% rise, marginally missing expectations of 1%, but up from 0.8% in the month before.

The increase in the consumer inflation rate was due to gasoline prices, which climbed 16.6% and contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase, according to Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Division at the NBS.

This was partially offset by a wider fall in food prices, which declined 1.7% and pulled down the CPI by 0.29 percentage points, Dong added.

The core CPI rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 1%.

The higher inflation figures come as China’s economy grapples with its lowest growth rate in more than three years. GDP growth for the second quarter of the year missed expectations at 4.3%.

While economic data for August showed that retail sales expanded more slowly than expected, industrial output beat expectations.

On Sept 28, a State Council readout signaled that more policy support could be on the way for the Chinese economy, saying that “In response to emerging challenges in the economy’s operation, efforts should be made to intensify counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies.”

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, wrote that “It marks a bit of a shift in tone,” adding that more policy support rollouts will be coming so as to reach both short- and long-term growth targets.

“These include the 4.5%-5.0% GDP growth target for 2026, and the longstanding goal to double GDP from 2020 to 2035.”

— This is breaking news, please check back for updates.

• Central-bank diversification and a weak property and stock market are driving China’s institutional and retail gold buying.
• The gold rush would help put a floor under bullion prices, even as the buoyant U.S. yields kept a lid on demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
• China’s gold reserves still remain well below the U.S. stockpiles.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/china-gold-buying-interest-rate-.html

Bank earnings kick off this week with no fewer than seven of the biggest names set to report. With the S&P 500 near all-time highs, the results could provide a significant market catalyst.

Financials are the third-worst performing S&P 500 sector in 2026. Despite being flat on the year, the options market is pricing in some big moves as investor weigh the impact of higher rates and stretched consumer.

Here’s what the options market sees, according to the latest Cboe LiveVol data.

Goldman Sachs – Tuesday, Oct. 13

The options market is pricing in a 2.84% move for Goldman Sachs after it reports earnings. Across the last eight reported quarters, the stock has moved just about 2% on average. Only three of those quarters have seen a negative stock reaction, with the most recent being a 1.87% move lower in April.

The stock rallied a whopping 9% after July’s Q2 report, which is the largest post-earnings move since January, 2019.

JPMorgan – Tuesday, Oct. 13

Options are pricing in a move similar to Goldman Sachs for JPMorgan, with a 2.5% implied move inline with its past eight quarter average of 2.22%. Unlike Goldman, JPMorgan’s recent reports haven’t been met with much positivity. The stock’s 2.5% move higher following July’s report was its first positive reaction since April, 2025, when it jumped 4% higher.

Citigroup – Tuesday, Oct. 13

Citigroup heads into Tuesday’s report up 11% on the year, best performance of any of this week’s reporting names. Options are pricing in a tame 3% stock reaction in either direction, well below the 3.8% it has averaged across the last eight reported quarters. There is cause for pause, though. Last quarter, the stock surprised to the downside to the tune of 5.3% against a 3.5% implied move.

Wells Fargo – Tuesday, Oct. 13

Wells Fargo rounds out Tuesday’s big bank earnings as a name with a lot to prove. Not only is the stock down 10% this year, but it has also flunked its last three earnings reports, including a 5% move lower in April. This time around, options are implying a 3.5% move in either direction. That’s well below its 5.6% average across the last eight quarters.

Bank of America – Wednesday, Oct. 14

The options market thinks Bank of America might be able to sneak into positive territory on the year after Wednesday’s report. A move higher would be its third-straight post-earnings win. The current implied stock move is 2.9% in either direction, meaningfully above the 1.8% swing it has averaged across its last eight reported quarters.

Morgan Stanley – Wednesday, Oct. 14

This company has rarely put a foot wrong in its recent earnings history. The stock has only moved lower once in its last eight reported quarters, a 1.3% move lower in July, 2025. This time around, options are implying a 3% move in either direction, compared to its eight-quarter average of 4.3%. A move higher on Wednesday would make it five straight for Morgan Stanley.

BlackRock – Wednesday, Oct. 14

A move higher would also be five in a row for BlackRock, which jumped nearly 7% following July’s report. Its last negative reaction came last July – a 6% tumble, This time, options are implying a 3.3% move in either direction. That’s tame compared to its 4.4% average across the last eight quarters.

• The home of Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat, was raided as part of a criminal investigation into her immigration paperwork, Fox News reported, citing a person familiar with the situation.
• Omar, who was born in Somalia and brought to the United States as a child, has been targeted in the past for criticism by President Donald Trump.
• Federal authorities raided the home less than a month before the midterm election.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/ilhan-omar-home-raided-dhs-immigration-investigation.html

U.S. consumer sentiment slumped further in early October as the rising cost of living because of the Middle East conflict soured households’ views of the economy, more bad news for President Donald Trump ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers was the latest in a series of recent polls to capture the darkening mood among Americans, who are being squeezed by high inflation and borrowing costs. Trump’s approval rating is at the lowest of his political career amid angst over his handling of the economy.

Next month’s elections will determine control of Congress.

The U.S.-Israeli war has raised energy prices, fanning inflation and prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September for the first time in three years.

Sentiment deteriorated sharply this month among lower-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios, the University of Michigan said on Friday. There was also a decline in morale among respondents identifying as Independents. Though there was an uptick among Democrats and Republicans, sentiment remained considerably lower than it was in January this year.

“Consumers across the political spectrum are frustrated with rising prices and a sense of treading water financially,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “It may not be readily apparent in headline GDP data, but it’s likely to be very apparent as voters cast their ballots in the coming weeks.”

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 46.3 this month from 48.1 in September. The third straight monthly decline pushed sentiment close to a record low plumbed in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 47.8.

The survey’s measure of current economic conditions slumped to an all-time low of 44.7 from 50.9 in September. Consumers’ expectations improved modestly, though buying conditions for durable goods plunged amid high prices and borrowing costs.

Higher-income households driving spending

Weak sentiment likely does not mean a significant slowdown in consumer spending as the relationship between the two has weakened over the years. The economy also resembles what economists describe as a K-shape, where the higher-income households are doing well, partly thanks to a strong stock market performance, compared to their middle- and lower-income counterparts, whose budgets are under strain.

Consumer spending is mostly being driven by higher-income households. That was reinforced by a separate report from the University of Michigan showing just under a third of consumers expected to spend as usual in the coming year on items that have experienced large price increases, while 54 per cent said they would cut back. About 16 per cent of consumers said they would stop buying.

It noted that higher income consumers were more likely to maintain spending than their lower-income counterparts.

“So, as long as equity markets hold up, spending can keep going,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “Hopefully, that buys time for an improvement in the energy situation that provides relief in terms of lower motor fuel costs and improved job prospects for the broader household sector. But if we were to experience a stock market correction, then the situation would change quickly.”

The Surveys of Consumers’ measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year nudged up to 4.7 per cent from 4.6 per cent in September. Twelve-month inflation expectations have surged from 3.4 per cent in February before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran started.

Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years rose to 3.5 per cent from 3.4 per cent in September.

The US central bank last month raised its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-to-4.00-per-cent range, the first hike in three years, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead.

The odds of another rate hike this month were diminished by the underwhelming payroll gains in September as well as cooler-than-expected inflation readings for July and August. Economists expect the Fed to raise rates in December.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. ATD-T -0.28%decrease has announced a deal to buy dozens of retail sites from Irving Oil in Quebec and Ontario.

The acquisition includes 50 locations in Quebec already operated by Couche-Tard under an alliance with New Brunswick-based Irving, as well as two in eastern Ontario.

Laval, Que.-based Couche-Tard is also buying 18 cardlock sites serving commercial customers like truckers. Sixteen of the sites would be on the same site as retail outlets.

In addition, the deal covers fuel supply to 71 retail sites owned and operated by Couche-Tard in Quebec.

“This agreement builds on our long-standing relationship with Irving Oil and our experience operating these locations,” said Stéphane Trudel, senior vice-president of operations at Couche-Tard, in a news release.

“These are markets and customers we know well. The transaction would support our continued investment in the everyday convenience experience we offer our customers.”

Couche-Tard did not say in the news release how much it is paying for the assets.

It said the deal is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including under the Competition Act.

The deal comes weeks after Irving appointed European energy executive Alfred Stern as its next president and chief executive officer.

Stern is to step into the top job on Nov. 1. He replaces Jeff Matthews, who is retiring after a 32-year career.

Stern most recently served as chairman and chief executive of Austrian oil and gas group OMV AG.

The decision to bring in an outsider to fill the Saint John, N.B., company’s leadership role comes after an 18-month strategic review, which wrapped up in January, 2025.

The review of the oil refiner and retailer’s future ended with Irving Oil choosing to keep the family-owned business independent rather than pursue a sale.

Monday October 12

Canadian and Japanese stock markets closed for holidays. U.S. bond markets closed

Earnings include: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE

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Tuesday October 13

Germany consumer price index

6 am ET: U.S. NFIB small business and economic trends survey for September

815 am ET: U.S. ADP employment report for week of Sept. 26

10 am ET: U.S. existing home sales

2pm ET: U.S. budget balance

Several Fed members will be speaking throughout the day

Earnings include: Citigroup Inc.; Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; Johnson & Johnson; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Unitedhealth Group Inc.; Wells Fargo & Co.

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Wednesday October 14

China inflation data for September and its trade surplus

205 am ET: BoC Governor Macklem participates in a fireside chat on growth, risk and the new map of global finance in Bangkok

830 am ET: Canada building permits for August. BMO expects a 3% rise

830 am ET: U.S. consumer prices. Consensus is for a monthly rise of 0.6%, or 3.6% year over year. Excluding food and energy, they are expected to be up 2.5%

2 pm ET: Fed’s Beige Book of economic conditions

Earnings include: ASML Holding N.V.; Bank of America Corp.; BlackRock Inc.; Fastenal Co.; Morgan Stanley; State Street Co.

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Thursday October 15

Euro area industrial production for August. France CPI for September. UK GDP, trade deficit and industrial production

6 am ET: U.S. Conference Board CEO confidence index for the fourth quarter

830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims

830 am ET: U.S. retail sales for September. Consensus is for a monthly rise of 0.3%

830 am ET: U.S. producer price index final demand. Consensus is for a year over year rise of 5.5%

10 am ET: U.S. business inventories

830 am ET: Canada manufacturing sales for August and new orders for August. BMO expects a rise of 1.1%, and a decline of 2.0%, respectively

830 am ET: Canada wholesale trade for August

830 am ET: Canada new motor vehicle sales for August. They are expected by BMO to be up 5.5% year over year.

1130 pm ET: IMF fireside chat with Fed Chair Warsh in Bangkok

Earnings include: Bank of New York Mellon Corp.; Blackstone Inc.; Charles Schwab Corp.; Freeport-McMoRan Inc.; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; Prologis Inc.; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.; U.S. Bancorp

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Friday October 16

Euro area consumer price index for September.

1215 am ET: BoC Governor Macklem joins IMF panel on AI and global economy in Bangkok

5 am ET: Canadian existing home sales for September, average prices and the MLS home price index, which is expected to be down 3% from a year ago.

815 am ET: Canadian housing starts for September. They are expected to edge up 0.4%.

830 am ET: Canadian international securities transactions.

830 am ET: U.S. import prices for September

915 am ET: U.S. industrial production for September.

Earnings include: A&W Food Services of Canada Inc.; M&T Bank Corp.; Travelers Companies; Truist Financial Corp.

Canada’s economy posted a second consecutive month of job losses in September, pushing up the unemployment rate and offsetting what had been a hot streak for the labour market earlier in the year.

Statistics Canada said Friday the economy lost 68,000 positions in September, coming off a loss of 42,000 roles in August. Economists had expected a gain of 9,200 jobs in the month.

Statscan said job losses were nearly evenly split between full- and part-time work and were concentrated in the public sector.

The unemployment rate edged up a tenth of a point to 6.5 per cent last month, back to where it stood at the start of the year in January.

September now marks the steepest single month of job losses since February.

Before recent weakness, employers had collectively added 181,000 positions from April through July. Employment was up 95,000 positions compared with last September.

The educational services sector led the declines with a loss of 35,000 positions last month, followed by the health care and manufacturing industries. September, meanwhile, recorded a gain of 17,000 jobs from a segment that includes repair, maintenance and other household and personal services.

Provincially, Quebec stood out with a loss of 49,000 jobs last month, while Ontario and British Columbia both shed 20,000 positions. Alberta added 23,000 roles.

The September jobs report is one of the first major economic releases since the trade dispute between Canada and the United States ratcheted back up.

Despite job losses in manufacturing, most economists weighing in Friday were not ascribing too much tariff weight to the data.

“Most September losses came from non-trade-facing sectors and from educational services for Quebec in particular, so it would be premature to blame tariffs for the weakness,” said Daniel Hyun, senior economist at KPMG Canada, in a note.

Signs of stability in the private sector – despite four straight months of declines in public sector employment – were also reassuring to economists.

Youth aged 15 to 24 bore the brunt of the losses in September with 48,000 fewer jobs, though a shrinking labour pool for young workers meant the unemployment rate for the cohort was little changed at 13 per cent.

Women aged 25 to 54 also lost 28,000 positions in September.

Average hourly wages rose 2.3 per cent on an annual basis last month, Statscan said, up from 2 per cent in August.

The September jobs figures mark the Bank of Canada’s last look at the labour market before its next interest rate decision set for Oct. 28.

The central bank’s policy rate has been at 2.25 per cent for nearly a year.

TD Bank senior economist Andrew Hencic said in a note to clients that two months of weak labour market figures between Bank of Canada decisions will pour cold water on calls for interest rate hikes in the near term.

While the central bank has been guarding against both tariff-induced economic weakness and price hikes from the war in the Middle East, Hencic said monetary policy-makers have signalled lately they’re more concerned about bubbling inflationary pressures.

TD expects the Bank of Canada to remain on hold this month as new tariffs take some steam out of the economy and keep inflation in check.

Hyun said the soft labour report casts a bit of doubt on KPMG Canada’s call for a quarter-point hike in December. But for now the firm’s economists still expect the central bank will raise its policy rate to 2.5 per cent to end the year to push back against inflation risks.