Category: Uncategorized

  • Japan downgrades tsunami warning after earthquake rocks region, at least four confirmed dead

    A series of major earthquakes rocked Japan on Monday, killing at least four people and trapping others under collapsed houses, according to local reports. 

    Kyodo News reported on the four deaths, citing the Ishikawa prefectural government.

    Later Monday, the government downgraded its highest-level tsunami alert but warned residents not to return home as deadly waves and aftershocks could still linger. 

    The Japan Meteorological Agency reported more than a dozen strong quakes – including a magnitude of 7.6 – in the Japan Sea off the coast of Ishikawa and nearby prefectures starting shortly after 4 p.m. local time.

    Japan lowers tsunami warning after earthquakes rock region, but government warns of lingering waves (foxnews.com)

  • China’s Xi Jinping says Taiwan will ‘surely be reunified’ in year-end address

    Xi promised unity ‘on both sides of the Taiwan Strait’

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China during his year-end address on Sunday.

    Tensions between China and Taiwan remain high, and Taiwanese voters are set to participate in the island’s elections on Jan. 13. Xi has repeatedly affirmed China’s stance that Taiwan is a part of China and that it must be reunified, by force if necessary.

    “All Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” Xi said in Sunday’s address.

    “The motherland will surely be reunified,” he added.

    The speech was the second time in a matter of days that Xi addressed the Taiwan issue. Xi also vowed to reunify Taiwan on Tuesday during a symposium in Beijing commemorating the 130th anniversary of the birth of Mao Zedong, the founding father of Communist China.

    CHINA’S XI JINPING UNANIMOUSLY ELECTED TO SERVE 3RD TERM AS PRESIDENT

    “The complete reunification of the motherland is an irresistible trend,” Xi said at the event, adding that China would “resolutely prevent anyone from splitting” the two sides.

    Meanwhile, in Taiwan, residents are preparing to head for the polls. Current opinion polls show residents favoring independence-leaning candidate Lai Ching-te.

    CHINA HAD A BUSY 2023 IN RACE TO USURP US AS DOMINANT WORLD POWER

    China has bristled at any international indication of Taiwan’s independence. Xi’s military conducted weeks of live-fire exercises around the Island in 2022 after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., traveled there.

    Taiwan split from mainland China in 1949, when democratic forces fled there after losing a civil war against the Chinese Communist Party.

    China’s Xi Jinping says Taiwan will ‘surely be reunified’ in year-end address (foxnews.com)

  • Calendar: January 1–January 5 , 2024

    Monday January 1

    U.S., Canadian and many global markets closed for New Year’s Day

    China releases various purchasing managers indexes (PMIs). Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight contraction, at 49.8, for December.


    Tuesday January 2

    China releases the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December. Euro area manufacturing PMIs.

    930 am ET: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December

    10 am ET: U.S. construction spending for November


    Wednesday January 3

    Germany releases labour statistics for December.

    North American auto sales for December.

    10 am ET: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

    10 am ET: U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

    2 pm ET: FOMC Minutes from December 12-13 meeting


    Thursday January 4

    China releases Caixin services PMI and composite PMI. Japan releases manufacturing PMI.

    Euro area releases services PMIs. Germany and France both release their December consumer price index.

    815 am ET: U.S. ADP National Employment Report

    830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims for previous week

    930 am ET: S&P Global Services PMI for December

    Earnings include: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands


    Friday January 5

    Japan releases services PMI and December consumer confidence data.

    Euro area releases December consumer price index. It’s expected to be up 2.9 per cent year over year. Germany releases retail sales.

    830 am ET: Canada jobs report for December. 20,000 net new jobs are expected, down from November’s 24,900. Unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.8 per cent. Average hourly wages expected to be up 4.9 per cent from a year earlier, a tick higher than November’s 4.8 per cent.

    830 am ET: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for December. Consensus is for the creation of 168,000 net new jobs, slowing from November’s 199,000. Unemployment rate expected to rise to 3.8 per cent from 3.7 per cent. Average hourly earnings expected to gain 3.9 per cent from a year ago.

    10 am ET: Canada Ivey PMI

    10 am ET: U.S. factory orders for November. They are expected to be up 1.6 per cent

    10 am ET: U.S. ISM Services PMI

    10 am ET: U.S. global supply chain pressure index for December.

    Earnings include: Constellation Brands, Greenbrier Companies

  • Calendar: Dec 25 – Dec 29

    Monday December 25

    North American and European markets closed

    ==

    Tuesday December 26

    Canadian and European markets closed

    Japan’s jobless rate and machine tool orders

    (9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October. The Street expects an increase of 0.6 per cent from September and 4.9 per cent year-over-year

    (9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for October. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.5 per cent and up 6.5 per cent year-over-year.

    ==

    Wednesday December 27

    China’s industrial profits

    ==

    Thursday December 28

    China’s current account surplus

    Japan retail sales and industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Dec. 23. Estimate is 210,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for November.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for November. Consensus is US$89.6-billion, unchanged from October.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for November. Consensus is a rise of 1.0 per cent from October.

    ==

    Friday December 29

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago PMI for December. The Street is projecting a reading of 50.0, down from 55.8 in November.

  • Canada’s economy shows no growth in October, with GDP below analyst expectations

    Canada’s economy showed no growth in October, Statistics Canada said on Friday, as GDP remained unchanged on a monthly basis at 0.0 per cent.

    Analysts had been expecting GDP to grow 0.2 per cent on a month-over-month basis. October marks the third straight month where economic growth was essentially unchanged.

    Statistics Canada says advance estimates for November showed that GDP increased 0.1 per cent last month, as increases in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting were partially offset by decreases in retail trade.

    “Canada’s economic engine continued to sputter in the fourth quarter,” Royce Mendes, Desjardins’ managing director and head of macro strategy, wrote in a research note on Friday. He says he expects the economy to post “virtually no growth” in the fourth quarter and continue to stagnate.

    “As more households and businesses feel the impacts of higher interest rates in 2024, we expect Canada to fall into at least a mild recession. So while the economy is sputtering now, it might begin rolling backwards early in the new year.”

    Canada’s economy has stalled in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s aggressive tightening campaign that has brought its benchmark rate to 5 per cent. GDP unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, and it is expected to be weak going forward. Assuming a flat December, fourth-quarter GDP is on track for a slight rebound of 0.4 per cent growth.

    “Softness in demand will likely persist as more homeowners refinance at higher interest rates, keeping a lid on overall economic activity and seeing inflation decelerate further in 2024, opening the door for a rate cut in Q2 next year,” CIBC economist Andrew Grantham wrote in a note on Friday.

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/canadas-economy-shows-no-growth-in-october-with-gdp-below-analyst-expectations-143843172.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAD1oszGbKEnpqpf-kJRgTF8qBpr4NTwvMkB_TeQdcIHi9Ir6vW7o70Xtigq9AcNo2nihd04Rrd-QitlkLVSgn8uZK97pl2rcKcg8XpdCc9sVQTg2fcyGb7Vm-vBGUCQXUcB-n06YxFwZxFB5RhVHKRNaeyyIPAAD2IwtsdGYvmCP

  • Houthi attacks rocking Red Sea trade routes likely won’t end anytime soon. Here’s what can happen next

    • U.S. Central Command over the weekend said it shot down “14 unmanned aerial systems launched as a drone wave from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen” in the Red Sea.
    • Many tankers and cargo ships that would normally transit via the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean are instead being rerouted around the continent of Africa.
    • Yemen’s Houthis have made clear their intention of targeting Israeli ships and any ships headed to or from Israel, in retaliation for the country’s war in Gaza.

    Houthi attacks on Red Sea likely won’t end anytime soon (cnbc.com)

  • Angola says it is leaving OPEC

    Angola is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) because membership is not serving its interests, oil minister Diamantino Azevedo said on Thursday.

    Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, produces about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day, compared with 28 million bpd for the whole group.

    Confirming an earlier report by local news agency ANGOP, Azevedo told public television the decision to leave was because OPEC membership was not serving Angola’s interests, but did not give further details.

    Oil prices extended losses on the news, with Brent prices down over $1 to $78.50 a barrel by 1250 GMT.

    Angola’s exit is a setback for OPEC and its allies, just as the group tries to get members to cut output to support prices.

    Last month, Azevedo’s office protested a decision by OPEC to cut its production quota for 2024. Bloomberg also quoted Angola’s OPEC Governor Estevao Pedro as saying the country was unhappy with its 2024 target and did not plan to stick to it.

    Disagreements over African output quotas had earlier helped delay a meeting of the wider OPEC+ oil producer group.

  • Regulator denied Trans Mountain variance request due to pipeline safety concerns

    The Canada Energy Regulator is citing safety concerns as its reason for refusing a request by Trans Mountain Corp. for a pipeline variance.

    In a written statement released Wednesday, the regulator provided its explanation for its denial earlier this month of the Crown corporation’s request for permission to use a different diameter, wall thickness and coating for a 2.3-kilometre stretch of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project currently under construction in B.C.

    The company said at the time it had run into challenges drilling through hard rock in the area, and warned of a possible 60-day delay in the completion of the project if it isn’t granted a variance.

    But the regulator said Wednesday it has serious concerns with the quality of materials Trans Mountain has procured to construct the variance, adding it doesn’t believe the company has demonstrated it can guarantee an appropriate level of safety and pipeline integrity if it goes ahead with the change.

    “Having pipe or components with mechanical properties not meeting specifications could lead to failure of the pipe or components under pressure testing or operating conditions, which could impact people and the environment,” the Canada Energy Regulator’s written statement said.

    The development is just the latest in a series of hurdles Trans Mountain Corp. has faced as it races against the clock to finish its massive pipeline construction project.

    The Trans Mountain pipeline is Canada’s only oil pipeline to the west coast, and its expansion will boost the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day from 300,000 bpd currently.

    The project’s completion, which had been expected in early 2024, is eagerly awaited by this country’s energy industry, which will benefit from improved access to export markets.

    The pipeline expansion is also expected to reduce the Western Canada Select differential, which is a term for the discount Canadian oil companies typically take on their product in part due to lack of export capacity.

    But the pipeline project has run into construction difficulties in its home stretch. Trans Mountain has already had to alter the route slightly near Kamloops, B.C. due to difficulty drilling a tunnel.

    Last week, Trans Mountain asked the regulator to reconsider its denial of the variance request, saying the company now believes its construction challenges in B.C. are more significant than first indicated.

    It said it now has reason to believe that proceeding with the current construction plan through complex hard rock conditions could compromise a borehole and result in the failure of drilling equipment.

    This could result in a “catastrophic” two-year delay for the project, the company said, adding Trans Mountain Corp. will incur $200 million in lost revenues for each month of delay.

    The regulator has not yet responded to this second variance request. In its application, Trans Mountain asked the regulator to make a decision before Jan. 9 in order to prevent unnecessary delays.

    The federal government purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2018 in an effort to get the expansion project over the finish line after it was scuttled by previous owner Kinder Morgan Canada.

    The project’s costs have spiralled through the course of construction from an original estimate of $5.4 billion to the most recent estimate of $30.9 billion.

  • U.S. weekly unemployment claims rise slightly, remain at low levels despite higher interest rates

    The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week but still remained at historically low levels despite high interest rates intended to slow hiring and cool the economy.

    The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims were up by 2,000 to 205,000 the week that ended Dec. 16. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week ups and downs, fell by 1,500 to 212,000.

    Overall, 1.87 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits the week that ended Dec. 9, little changed from the week before.

    Weekly unemployment claims are a proxy for layoffs. They have remained at extraordinarily low levels in the face of high interest rates.

    The Federal Reserve began raising interest rates last year to combat the inflation that surged as the result of an unexpectedly strong economic rebound from the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022.

    And inflation has eased. Consumer prices were up 3.1 per cent from a year earlier, down from a four-decade high 9.1 per cent in June 2022 but still above the Fed’s 2 per cent target. The Fed has left rates alone at its last three meetings – most recently last week – and is now forecasting that it will reverse policy and cut rates three times next year.

    When the Fed started raising rates, many economists predicted that the United States – the world’s largest economy – would slide into recession. But the economy and the job market have proven surprisingly resilient. The unemployment rate, for example, has come in below 4 per cent for 22 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

    The combination of decelerating inflation and low unemployment has raised hopes that the Fed is managing a so-called soft landing – raising rates just enough to tame inflation without causing a recession.