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  • OPEC+ announces surprise cuts of around 1.16 mbpd from May to year-end

    DUBAI (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further cuts in their production amounting to around 1.16 million barrels per day in a surprise move they said was aimed at supporting market stability.

    The development comes a day before a virtual meeting of an OPEC+ ministerial panel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, and which had been expected to stick to 2 million bpd of cuts already in place until the end of 2023.

    Oil prices last month fell towards $70 a barrel, the lowest in 15 months, on concern that a global banking crisis would hit demand. Still, further action by OPEC+ to support the market was not expected after sources downplayed this prospect and crude recovered towards $80.

    The latest reductions could lift oil prices by $10 per barrel, the head of investment firm Pickering Energy Partners said on Sunday.

    Sunday’s pledges bring the total volume of cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand.

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    “OPEC is taking pre-emptive steps in case of any possible demand reduction,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of Energy Aspects, said on Sunday.

    Last October, OPEC+ had agreed to an output cut of 2 million bpd from November until the end of the year, a move that angered Washington as tighter supply boosts oil prices.

    The U.S. has argued that the world needs lower prices to support economic growth and prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from earning more revenue to fund the Ukraine war.

    Sunday’s unexpected voluntary cuts start from May.

    Saudi Arabia said it would cut output by 500,000 bpd while Iraq will reduce its production by 211,000 bpd, according to official statements.

    The UAE said it would cut production by 144,000 bpd, Kuwait announced a cut of 128,000 bpd while Oman announced a cut of 40,000 bpd and Algeria said it would cut its output by 48,000 bpd. Kazakhstan will also cut output by 78,000 bpd.

    Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also said on Sunday that Moscow would extend a voluntary cut of 500,000 bpd until the end of 2023. Moscow announced those cuts unilaterally in February following the introduction of Western price caps.

    An OPEC+ source said Gabon would make a voluntary cut of 8,000 bpd and not all OPEC+ members were joining the move as some are already pumping well below agreed levels due to a lack of production capacity.

    After Russia’s unilateral reductions, U.S. officials said its alliance with other OPEC members was weakening, but Sunday’s move shows the cooperation is still strong.

    The Saudi energy ministry said in a statement that the kingdom’s voluntary cut was a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.

  • Dollarama profit jumps nearly 19% as high inflation drives Canadians to discount retailer

    Canada’s main stock index extended gains on Wednesday, helped by energy stocks, while discount store chain Dollarama advanced after posting quarterly revenue above estimates.

    Dollarama Inc rose 1.2% and hit a two-month high after the discount store chain also reported a surge in same-store sales.

    The consumer discretionary sector index, housing the stock, added 0.9%.

    At 10:25 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 155.29 points, or 0.79%, at 19,812.82.

    “It’s a great business. They operate their store count quite well and they’re very efficient with respect to their costs,” said Mike Archibald, vice-president and portfolio manager at AGF Investments.

    Further aiding gains, the energy sector advanced 1.4% tracking strength in crude oil prices, as a halt in some exports from Iraqi Kurdistan raised concerns of tightening supply.

    On Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented a budget in parliament that was aimed at attracting investment in the low-carbon economy, including tax incentives for electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturers and expanding the electricity grid.

    The utilities sector added 0.5%.

    Archibald added that renewable names like Northland Power and Ballard Power Systems would stand to benefit from the credits provided to encourage more investment in green technology.

    Northland Power was down 0.2%, while Ballard Power Systems surged 2.6%.

    The TSX is on course for a second straight month of losses in March as monetary tightening worries and concerns about a global banking sector meltdown spooked investors.

    Still, the bourse is up for the quarter, underpinned by gains from January as equities bounced back from previous year’s losses.

    Enbridge Inc climbed 2.4% after Credit Suisse upgraded its rating on the oil transportation firm to “neutral” from “underperform”.

    U.S. stocks are rising with markets across Europe and Asia Wednesday as Wall Street shakes off a bit more of the fear that dominated it earlier this month.

    The S&P 500 was 1% higher in morning trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 219 points, or 0.7%, at 32,613, while the Nasdaq composite was 1.4% higher.

    They followed similar sized gains in other markets around the world, and the S&P 500 is on track to close what’s been a tumultuous month with a modest gain. That’s despite the month being dominated by worries about banks and whether the industry is cracking under the pressure of much higher interest rates.

    By Wednesday, a measure of fear among stock investors on Wall Street was back down near its lowest point since March 8, the day before Silicon Valley Bank’s customers suddenly yanked out $42 billion in a panicked dash. It became the second-largest U.S. bank failure in history and sparked greater scrutiny of banks around the world.

    Big actions by regulators recently have calmed some of the worries around banks, including a government-brokered takeover by one Swiss banking giant of another. In that deal, UBS said Wednesday it’s bringing back former CEO Sergio Ermotti to help it absorb its troubled rival, Credit Suisse. Ermotti led the bank through its turnaround following the 2008 financial crisis.

    UBS stock in Switzerland rose 4.4%. Other big banks across the continent also strengthened, which helped indexes there to rise. Germany’s DAX returned 1.3%, and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.5%. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 1.1%.

    On Wall Street, the vast majority of financial stocks in the S&P 500 were rising. In the U.S., most of the scrutiny has been on smaller and midsized banks instead of the titans. That’s because those smaller banks are seen as more at risk of suffering a sudden stampede of customers pulling their money, similar to the run that toppled Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month.

    Some of the banks recently seen as most at risk were moving sharply. First Republic Bank rose 3.9%. PacWest Bancorp. was down 1.1% after losing an earlier gain.

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. still has many of Silicon Valley Bank’s assets in its receivership after California regulators seized it earlier this month. But it announced the sale of much of the bank’s assets at the start of this week. Regulators earlier this month also announced programs to help banks raise cash more easily, which helped ease some of the strain.

    That, plus the implicit promise that U.S. officials have seemed to make about protecting depositors at other banks, should help support the industry, analysts say.

    Easing fears about the banking system have helped Treasury yields rise somewhat in the bond market, following some historic-sized moves earlier this month.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans, rose to 3.58% from 3.57% late Tuesday.

    The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed and has been particularly unsettled, inched down to 4.07% from 4.08%. Earlier this month, it went from more than 5% to less than 3.80%, which is a massive move.

    The path ahead for the Federal Reserve and other central banks has suddenly become much more difficult to navigate because of the banking industry’s struggles. Typically, the still-high inflation seen around the world would call for even higher interest rates. But that would risk applying more pressure on banks, which could pull back on lending and squeeze oxygen out of the economy.

    Traders are split on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at its next meeting in May or take a pause. If it doesn’t raise rates, that would be the first meeting where it doesn’t in more than a year.

    The Fed’s key overnight rate has already zoomed to a range of 4.75% to 5%, up from virtually zero at the start of last year. Higher rates can slow inflation, but they do so by bluntly hammering the entire economy. That raises the risk of a recession while also dragging down prices for stocks and other investments.

    Traders are largely betting the Fed will have to cut rates as soon as this summer, something that can act like steroids for markets. But the Fed has been hinting it sees perhaps one more hike before holding rates steady through this year.

    Many professionals on Wall Street are taking the Fed at its word, saying rate cuts would likely come more quickly only if the economy is in serious trouble.

    For now, a remarkably resilient job market has been holding up the economy, even as portions of it weaken under the strain of higher interest rates.

    With the end of March approaching, most companies are close to wrapping up their first quarter of the year. They’ll begin telling investors in upcoming weeks how much profit they made, and expectations are largely weak.

    Analysts expect a 6% drop in earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 index, versus year-earlier levels. That would be the worst showing since the spring of 2020, at the height of the pandemic.

    Micron Technology on Wednesday rose 6.5% even though it reported a bigger loss and weaker revenue for its latest quarter than expected. Analysts said they were expecting a rough quarter, and they see some signs of optimism on the horizon as bloated inventories in the industry appear to be working down.

  • Federal budget 2023: Ottawa gives $20.9-billion over five years in tax credits to stay competitive with U.S. on clean economy spending

    The federal government is banking on a suite of new tax credits, a clean electricity grid and the carbon tax to spur the transition to a clean economy and counter vast subsidies rolled out by the United States that risk pulling capital south of the border.

    In its budget unveiled Tuesday, Ottawa announced $20.9-billion over five years, the majority of which will go to new investment tax credits for clean electricity, clean hydrogen and clean technology manufacturing. It also expanded eligibility for tax credits for clean technology adoption and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS).

    The budget shows Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government betting on investment tax credits to compete with incentives rolled out by the Biden administration as part of its US$369-billion Inflation Reduction Act. The spending document also shifts the Trudeau government’s focus from climate change mitigation to the economic incentives required to meet emissions reduction targets.

    In her speech to Parliament, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said new fiscal measures would ensure Canada’s economy is not left behind during the clean transition, and position the country to benefit from new critical supply chains among allies that cut out unreliable dictatorships.

    Federal budget allots $67.3-billion over five years on Liberal government initiatives

    “We will ensure that Canada seizes the historic opportunity before us,” she said.

    The majority of the investment tax credits end in 2034 – lining up with Canada’s goal for a net-zero electricity grid by 2035.

    About 83 per cent of Canada’s electricity supply comes from non-emitting sources. To bring that up to 100 per cent within 12 years, the government will implement a 15-per-cent refundable tax credit available to public, private and Indigenous power producers. It can be used to cover large-scale hydrogen and nuclear power projects, some abated natural-gas-fired generation, and equipment for electric transmission between provinces and territories.

    The budget estimates the cost of the clean electricity tax credit over the next five years at $6.3-billion. The goal is to encourage electric utilities to build an east-west grid.

    On top of that, as promised in the Fall Economic Statement, the budget introduces a clean hydrogen refundable tax credit which will cover between 15 per cent and 40 per cent of eligible project costs. The tax credit is estimated to cost $5.6-billion over five years.

    The budget also rolls out a 30-per-cent clean technology manufacturing tax credit aimed at spurring business investment in areas such as the extraction, processing and recycling of critical minerals. It is expected to cost the treasury $4.5-billion over five years.

    The clean electricity tax credit is in addition to a previously announced clean technology tax credit that covers 30 per cent of private-sector investments in areas such as wind, solar and small modular nuclear reactors. Eligibility for that program was expanded in this budget and its five-year cost is estimated at $6.7-billion. Companies cannot draw on both tax credits for the same project.

    And the budget extends eligibility for the CCUS tax credit, increasing its costs by $516-million over five years to a total of $4.1-billion.

    The federal government promised a substantive response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act in the budget in large part because of serious concerns in the business community that the Biden administration’s measure would drive investment out of Canada. The American spending also pushes protectionist Buy America policies that Mr. Trudeau’s government is threatening to mirror.

    https://player.simplecast.com/f5283204-9351-4e1f-a9cc-00360ac5c54a?dark=false

    The budget says Canada is considering introducing new tit-for-tat parameters in the tax credits that would only grant foreign companies the equivalent access to tax credits that Canadian companies are eligible for in their respective countries. The move is meant to give Canada leverage as it tries to secure carve-outs from protectionist U.S. policies.

    Robert Asselin, a senior vice-president with the Business Council of Canada, told The Globe and Mail that the path charted by Ms. Freeland is “generally good,” in particular the focus on greening the electricity grid.

    “It’s foundational to everything else. If we don’t have enough clean electricity, we’ll struggle to decarbonize the economy,” he said, adding that the government got “the big things right.”

    He said that investment-based tax credits give the government more predictability for its long-term budgeting and that copying the production tax credits offered by the U.S. would have “blown the bank.”

    However, Mr. Asselin said the budget falls short when it comes to incentives to develop new economic sectors. “There’s nothing on research and development, nothing on industrial research,” he said.

    Chris Severson-Baker, the executive director of the Pembina Institute, a think tank, agreed that the focus on a cleaner grid is essential to a greener economy. But, he added: “We’re not done.”

    “There certainly will be a role for future budgets to keep moving forward to get to net zero by 2050.”

    The Pathways Alliance, whose membership covers about 95 per cent of oil sands production, welcomed the expansion of CCUS supports but said it’s still waiting on a better understanding of the government’s intentions for carbon contracts for differences. The contracts, details of which have been promised by Ottawa, would provide a predictable price on carbon pollution and carbon credits, thereby ensuring that businesses can plan long-term investments in decarbonization and clean technologies.

    Not yet accounted for amid the billions in new spending announced Tuesday is how much money the federal government paid to convince Volkswagen to build its first overseas electric vehicle battery manufacturing “gigafactory” in Ontario. Government officials told reporters the spending is accounted for within the budget but declined to disclose the cost. A formal announcement is expected in about a month.

  • Budget targets billions from banks with change to dividend tax

    Ottawa is planning to raise billions of dollars from banks and insurers through a change in tax rules on dividends that financial institutions receive from Canadian companies.

    The Liberal government delivered the second major shift in taxation for the financial sector in two years as part of the federal budget unveiled Tuesday. The measure is expected to drum up $3.15-billion over five years starting in 2024, and $790-million annually after that.

    The government plans to amend tax treatment on dividends of Canadian shares held by financial institutions. The update would require banks and insurers to count those dividends as business income.

    By excluding dividends from their income, financial institutions have been able to lower their tax burden and reduce government revenues that could be used for public services, according to the budget.

    The Canadian Bankers Association said it is reviewing the budget to assess its implications for the industry. “Strong banks are a hallmark of our country, and they are key contributors to durable economic growth for all Canadians,” CBA spokesperson Mathieu Labrèche said in an e-mailed statement.

    Federal budget 2023: 7 key takeaways on climate, dental care and the deficit

    This marks the second taxation blow to the financial sector in a year. Last April, the government introduced two new charges in its budget.

    The first, named the Canada Recovery Dividend, required large banks and life insurers to pay a one-time 15-per-cent tax on taxable income above $1-billion for 2021. It is expected to raise $604-million annually starting in 2022, for a total of $3.02-billion over five years, according to estimates by the Parliamentary Budget Officer in September.

    The second measure revealed was a permanent change to the sector’s corporate income tax rate, up 1.5 percentage points to 16.5 per cent on taxable profits over $100-million. The PBO estimated that the increase would raise $2.25-billion over five years.

    Brian Ernewein, senior adviser with KPMG and a former senior tax specialist with the Finance Department, said Canada’s banks will likely take issue with the latest measure announced in the budget.

    “I’m not sure the banks were expecting this change,” Mr. Ernewein said. “It is the case that the banks have been subject to a number of fairly significant measures now, with the two year surcharge, with the extra corporate tax rate. … So they may feel as though they’re being asked quite a lot with those and this measure combined.”

    The amendment was one of several proposals targeted at the financial sector, including legislative changes aimed at emerging risks in the industry. Two weeks before the budget release, U.S. and European bank stocks plummeted after the failure of California-based Silicon Valley Bank crippled confidence in the sector.

    While the big, diversified Canadian banks were largely unscathed, the turmoil thrust the industry globally into uncertainty and prompted questions around regulatory scrutiny and protections in the case of a run on deposits.

    The issue of uninsured deposits in Canada made a brief appearance in the budget. The government said that it could consider amending legislation to expand the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation’s ability to increase deposit insurance and other related measures in the case of market disruption. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. covers up to US$250,000 per eligible deposit, but Canadian depositors are insured for less than half of that at $100,000.

    The government also plans to expand the mandate of Canada’s banking regulator to include determining whether financial companies have sufficient protection against security threats, such as foreign interference. This could also include bolstering the range of circumstances in which the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions can take control of a federally regulated financial institution, including instances where shareholders were unable to exercise their voting rights, or where there are national security risks.

    In addition to escalated risks thrown into the spotlight by the banking crisis, the government pointed to failures of crypto trading platform FTX, and of New York-based Signature Bank, as examples of the need for more consumer protection from risks with the digital assets.

    The budget said OSFI will consult with federally regulated financial companies on guidelines for disclosing their crypto-asset exposure. The government will also require federally regulated pension funds to disclose their crypto exposure to the regulator, and plans to discuss the matter with provinces and territories to help holders of the country’s largest pension plans understand how the assets may affect their portfolios.

  • Ottawa loosens fiscal restraints with new spending

    Slower economic growth and higher public spending are straining Ottawa’s bottom line, as the Liberal government’s 2023 budget announced billions in new spending on clean technology and an expanded national dental care program.

    Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said her economic plan will position Canada to take advantage of a moment in which the United States and other democratic allies are seeking to green their economies, while reducing their supply-chain dependence on China and Russia.

    After two years of rapid growth as pandemic restrictions loosened, the Canadian economy is expected to stall this year under the weight of higher interest rates. Recent turmoil in the U.S. and European banking sectors has increased the odds of a more severe downturn.

    This worsening economic outlook combined with new spending means Ottawa is straying from its “fiscal anchor.” Federal government debt compared with the size of the economy is expected to rise in the coming fiscal year, before returning to a downward trend.

    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland delivers the federal budget in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Tuesday, March 28, 2023.SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS

    Key takeaways:

    • The federal government is banking on a suite of new tax credits, a clean electricity grid and the carbon tax to spur the transition to a clean economy and counter vast subsidies rolled out by the United States that risk pulling capital south of the border.
    • Ottawa is establishing an office to counter foreign interference and giving nearly $50-million to the RCMP to combat harassment of Canadians by powers such as China and Russia.

    Read more:

    What does it mean for your finances?

    Budget commentary

  • Saudi Arabia takes step to join China-led security bloc, as ties with Beijing strengthen

    • Saudi Arabia’s cabinet on Tuesday approved a memorandum awarding Riyadh the status of dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
    • The SCO is a political, security and trade alliance that lists China, Russia, India, Pakistan and four other central Asian nations as members.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/29/saudi-arabia-takes-step-to-join-china-led-security-bloc-as-ties-with-beijing-strengthen.html

  • Lucid to cut 1,300 workers amid signs of flagging demand for its EVs

    • Lucid said in a regulatory filing that it is cutting about 18% of its workforce, or roughly 1,300 workers.
    • In a letter to employees, CEO Peter Rawlinson said the job cuts will hit “nearly every organization and level, including executives.”
    • The company expects to take charges of $24 million to $30 million related to the cuts, most of that in the first quarter.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/lucid-to-cut-1300-workers.html

  • Ukraine war live updates: German and British tanks arrive in Ukraine; Russia fires supersonic missiles off Japan’s coast

    The first shipment of German and British tanks have arrived in Ukraine, ahead of an expected spring counter-offensive.

    Ukraine’s defense ministry said British Challenger 2 tanks had arrived in Ukraine, while Germany’s Defense Ministry said 18 Leopard 2 tanks, ammunition and spare parts had been sent Tuesday.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

  • Some young Canadians are downsizing their homes to cut back on their expenses

    Last month, Chelsea Hunt and her husband concluded that the cost of living had skyrocketed to a point where they could no longer afford to stay in their apartment and needed to move.

    “We were living paycheque to paycheque,” the 26-year-old said.

    “We were having to borrow money from one of our parents at different times. I have two babies under two, so it was just a lot to feed all of us and to make our rent every month.”

    The family of four packed up their belongings from their Saint John, N.B. apartment and moved in with Hunt’s parents, roughly 30 minutes outside the city.

    Despite having to sacrifice their privacy and independence, Hunt described the move as a weight lifted off her and her husband’s shoulders.

    She said it’s allowed them to focus on paying off their student loans and car payments since they’re no longer “racking up” their credit cards and paying for groceries, rent and hydro.

    Meanwhile, their kids get to spend more time with their grandparents.

    Hunt’s story is not unique.

    A recent Statistics Canada survey, conducted between Oct. 21 and Dec. 4, 2022, found that more than one-third of Canadians were finding it difficult for their household to meet its financial needs within the previous 12 months.

    The survey also found that due to rising prices, 44 per cent of respondents aged 25 to 34 either wanted to purchase a home or move but did not, moved sooner than planned, or chose a more affordable house or rental. For Canadians aged 15 to 24, that figure was 33 per cent.

    Before making a move such as downsizing or opting for cohabitation with a loved one or roommate, it’s crucial to reflect and weigh your options and priorities, said Cindy Marques, a certified financial planner and co-founder of MakeCents.

    If you prefer to be a city dweller because it makes you happy and feeds your soul, Marques said you’ll have to accept that housing prices are going to “eat up” a larger percentage of your income and you’ll have to cut back in other areas like dining out or shopping in order to save.

    But if the cost of living in a big city like Toronto, for example, is too high to bear, then you’ll have to consider moving in with your parents or with a roommate, or moving out of the city altogether to downsize your expenses, said Marques.

    “You really do have to consider all the options here,” she said.

    Marques strongly encourages those who are choosing to make such moves to be mindful of why they’re doing so in the first place and to keep their sights set on their financial goals.

    “If you’re downsizing in terms of rent, is it because you’re saving up for a down payment? Or maybe you’re already an owner and you’re downsizing to a cheaper property because you want to expedite your progress to retirement. OK, write that down, crunch the numbers,” she said.

    Otherwise, once you’ve made the change, the extra wiggle room in your wallet might result in your original goals being “lost to lifestyle creep,” said Marques.

    “Figure out what is it you’re saving and what are you saving towards.”

    Anne Arbour, director of strategic partnerships for the Credit Counselling Society, agreed.

    “Have a firm plan and stick to it and hold yourself accountable,” she said.

    Arbour recommends that people have a “very clear picture” of their individual finances and budget before deciding to move – disregarding what others in their social circle or age group are doing.

    “You should only do what is right for you and your plan and personal situation,” she said.

    If you’re planning to move in with loved ones or roommates, she said it’s important to first establish a set of rules and expectations.

    “Friends and money or partners and money can bring a whole different level of emotion and stress, so you want to make sure that everybody is on the same page,” said Arbour.

    She also noted that there are prices to pay for every move, such as moving costs, land transfer taxes, closing costs and realtor fees, which may add up quickly and cut into your savings. And if you’re moving municipalities, there could be other expenses like higher car insurance premiums, she said.

    “It’s not just a short-term solution because it costs money to move,” said Arbour.

    For Hunt, moving back home has offered an opportunity for her and her husband to get their finances back in order.

    “We’re just looking to pay down our bills and then live on our own,” she said.

    Ultimately, if your living situation and finances are causing you “undue stress,” Arbour, with the Credit Counselling Society, said you should reach out for help, “whether it’s a not-for-profit credit counsellor, a trusted friend, or older adults who can offer some perspective.”

    “You’re not the only one feeling this way – this is really common.”