Bank of England raises rates by 50 basis points, in seventh consecutive hike
6.8 magnitude earthquake shakes Mexico, 1 dead
MEXICO CITY (AP) — A powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.8 struck Mexico early Thursday, causing buildings to sway and leaving at least one person dead in the nation’s capital.
The earthquake struck shortly after 1 a.m., just three days after a 7.6-magnitude earthquake shook western and central Mexico, killing two.
The U.S. Geological Survey said Thursday’s earthquake, like Monday’s, was centered in the western state of Michoacan near the Pacific coast. The epicenter was about 29 miles (46 kilometers) south-southwest of Aguililla, Michoacan, at a depth of about 15 miles (24.1 kilometers).
Michoacan’s state government said the quake was felt throughout the state. It reported damage to a building in the city of Uruapan and some landslides on the highway that connects Michoacan and Guerrero with the coast.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said via Twitter that it was an aftershock from Monday’s quake and was also felt in the states of Colima, Jalisco and Guerrero.
Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum said via Twitter that one woman died in a central neighborhood when she fell down the stairs of her home. Residents were huddled in streets as seismic alarms blared.
Oil rises nearly 3% after Putin’s speech; Asia markets lower ahead of the Fed’s rate hike
Shares in the Asia-Pacific traded lower Wednesday, following Wall Street’s negative lead ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate hike.
Oil prices rallied in Asia’s afternoon after Russian president, Vladimir Putin, announced a partial military mobilization.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan dropped 1.36% to 27,313.13, while the Topix index also fell 1.36% to 1,920.80. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 1.56% to 6,700.20.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.6% in the final hour of trade, and the Hang Seng Tech index dropped 2.7%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite lost 0.17% to 3,117.18 and the Shenzhen Component was 0.668% lower at 11,208.51.
South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.87% to 2,347.21. MCSI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 1.4%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/asia-markets-fed-interest-rates-wall-street-currencies-yields.html
Before the Bell: Sept 21
Equities
Wall Street futures were steady early Wednesday as traders await this afternoon’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Major European markets were mixed. TSX futures were little changed with crude prices higher.
In the early premarket period, futures tied to the key U.S. indexes all hovered near breakeven. On Tuesday, all three saw losses with the S&P 500 falling 1.13 per cent while the Dow slid 1.01 per cent. The Nasdaq finished down 0.95 per cent. The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed the session off 0.99 per cent.
For traders, the day’s key event will be the Fed’s rate decision, due at 2 p.m. Markets have priced in another 75-basis-point hike but investors will also be watching closely for hints about how aggressive the central bank expects to be in the months ahead as it battles inflation.
“Activity on Fed funds futures still assesses less than 20-per-cent probability for a 100-basis-point hike from the Fed today,” Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said. “And more importantly, the FOMC doesn’t have a modern history of making abrupt moves, except for dovish moves which have a sudden positive impact on the markets, like the ones we saw during the pandemic.”
“So, the expectation is that the Fed will deliver a 75-basis-point hike today,” she said. “We could see a relief rally in equity and bond markets, if, of course, the dot plot doesn’t show projections going above market expectations.”
Wednesday’s small-cap stocks to watch
Earlier, world markets were rattled by new comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Globe’s Mark MacKinnon reports Mr. Putin has doubled down on his war against Ukraine, ordering a partial mobilization of reservists and warning that his country was willing to use its nuclear arsenal if Russian territory was attacked.
In this country, Aurora Cannabis Inc. says its net loss widened to $618.8-million in its most recent quarter from $134-million last year as it recorded $505.1-million in impairment charges. Aurora reported net revenue for the quarter ended June 30 of $50.2-million, down 8 per cent from $54.8-million the year before. The results were released after Tuesday’s closing bell.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 edged up 0.32 per cent. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 slid 0.19 per cent and 0.13 per cent, respectively. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.53 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed down 1.36 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.79 per cent.
Commodities
Crude prices jumped after Russian president Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial mobilization of reservists heightened concerns over global oil and gas supply.
The day range on Brent was US$90.16 to US$93.50 early Wednesday morning. The range on West Texas Intermediate was US$83.48 to US$86.68.
Putin said he had signed a decree on partial mobilization beginning on Wednesday.
“The move could possibly lead to calls for more aggressive action against Russia in terms of sanctions from the west,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities research at ING, said.
Elsewhere, the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by about 1 million barrels last week. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast an increase of more than 2 million barrels. More official U.S. government figures are due later Wednesday morning.
Gold prices, meanwhile, were higher as tensions in Europe sparked renewed interest in safe-haven holdings.
Spot gold was up 0.5 per cent at US$1,670.57 per ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.6 per cent to US$1,680.40.
Currencies
The Canadian dollar was modestly lower, trading under 75 US cents, while its U.S. counterpart hit a two-decade high against a group of world currencies ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.
The day range on the loonie is 74.66 US cents to 74.86 US cents.
On world markets, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against other major currencies, more than 0.5 per cent higher to 110.87 after Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial military mobilization of reservists triggered safe-haven buying. That was its highest level since 2002, according to Reuters.
The euro, meanwhile, fell to a two-week low of US$0.9885, near two-decade lows hit earlier this month. It was last down 0.6 per cent at US$0.9912, according to figures from Reuters.
Britain’s pound fell to a fresh 37-year low of US$1.1304.
In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was down slightly at 3.54 per cent.
Oil prices surge more than 2% as Putin mobilizes more troops
Oil jumped more than 2% on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization, escalating the war in Ukraine and raising concerns of tighter oil and gas supply.
Brent crude futures rose $2.17, or 2.4%, to $92.79 a barrel after falling $1.38 the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.05 a barrel, up $2.10, or 2.5%.
Putin said he had signed a decree on partial mobilization beginning on Wednesday, saying he was defending Russian territories and that the West wanted to destroy the country.
The escalation will lead to increased uncertainty over Russian energy supplies, said Warren Patterson, head of commodities research at ING.
“The move could possibly lead to calls for more aggressive action against Russia in terms of sanctions from the west,” he said.
Oil soared and touched a multi-year high in March after the Ukraine war broke out.
European Union sanctions banning seaborne imports of Russian crude will come into force on Dec. 5.
“It seems like a knee-jerk reaction to a sliver of news and would be liable to further recalibration in the coming hours,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore.
Meanwhile, the United States said that it did not expect a breakthrough on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal at this week’s U.N. General Assembly, reducing the prospects of a return of Iranian barrels to the international market.
The OPEC+ producer grouping – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and associates including Russia – is now falling a record 3.58 million barrels per day short of its production targets, or about 3.5% of global demand. The shortfall highlights the underlying tightness of supply in the market.
Investors this week have been bracing for another aggressive interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve that they fear could lead to recession and plunging fuel demand.
The Fed is widely expected to hike rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row later on Wednesday in its drive to rein in inflation.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel stocks rose by about 1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 16, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
U.S. crude oil inventories were estimated to have risen last week by around 2.2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 16, according to an extended Reuters poll.
The head of Saudi state oil giant Aramco warned on Tuesday that the world’s spare oil production capacity may be quickly used up when the global economy recovers.
Canada’s inflation rate eases to 7% in August as gas prices fall but food costs continue to climb
Canada’s annual inflation rate fell for a second consecutive month in August as gasoline and other products dropped, offering some hope that the Bank of Canada’s campaign to restrain price growth through much tighter lending conditions is having its intended effect.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7 per cent in August from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. That was lower than financial analysts’ estimate of 7.3 per cent. Inflation has slowed from 7.6 per cent in July and 8.1 per cent in June, a near four-decade high.
On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.3 per cent in August, which again was weaker than what analysts expected. Gasoline prices, which fell 9.6 per cent in August from July, were a key driver of lower inflation. But it was not only the pumps where consumers found some relief.
Shelter costs dropped for the first time since January, 2021, helped by a modest decline in rents. Clothing and footwear prices also fell. The average of the Bank of Canada’s core measures of annual inflation – which strip out volatile aspects of CPI and give a better sense of underlying inflation trends – fell to 5.2 per cent in August from 5.4 per cent in July.
There were, however, some discouraging signs. Grocery prices rose 10.8 per cent on an annual basis, the quickest pace in more than 40 years.
“Is this too good to be true? We’ve seen head fakes in the numbers before, with recent data on U.S. inflation a prime example,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, wrote to clients. “However, it could be true that easing supply chain pressures, falling commodity prices and a highly interest-rate sensitive economy are all conspiring to see price growth cool in Canada ahead of other jurisdictions.”
Indeed, the U.S. reported last week that its annual inflation rate ebbed to 8.3 per cent. However, core inflation – excluding food and energy – accelerated on a monthly basis, leading to a market selloff on fears that consumer price growth is proving sticky. The Federal Reserve will announce its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Analysts expect the Fed to hike its target for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to a range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent.
The Bank of Canada is likewise raising interest rates in aggressive fashion, aimed at tamping down inflation. The bank’s policy rate was recently hiked to 3.25 per cent. Despite a slower pace of inflation, analysts expect the central bank to hike again at its meeting in late October, given that consumer price growth is still far above the bank’s 2-per-cent target.
“Inflation likely hasn’t slowed far enough, or for long enough, to convince the Bank of Canada that further interest rate hikes aren’t necessary,” Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in an investor note.
“However, today’s inflation readings, as well as other data highlighting a slowing Canadian economy, support the view that interest rates here should peak below what the Federal Reserve will need to do in the U.S. in order to get inflation back to a 2% target.”
The annual inflation rate is likely to get another assist from gasoline in September. As of Monday, the national average of regular unleaded gas was 155.4 cents a litre, down 9.5 per cent from the daily average in August, according to data from Kalibrate Technologies.
What hasn’t improved is grocery prices. On a 12-month basis, meat has risen 6.5 per cent, bakery products by 15.4 per cent, fresh fruit by 13.2 per cent and pasta products by 20.7 per cent. “The supply of food continued to be impacted by multiple factors, including extreme weather, higher input costs, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and supply chain disruptions,” Statscan said in Tuesday’s report.
Price growth is slowing for durable goods, which had been a big area of consumer demand during the pandemic, as people directed their spending away from services. Household appliances rose 9 per cent on an annual basis, down from 11.5 per cent in July. Citing “reduced consumer demand,” Statscan said price growth was also cooling for refrigerators, laundry machines, dishwashers and cooking appliances.
Oil falls on demand fears, strong dollar
Oil fell Monday, pressured by expectations of weaker global demand and by U.S. dollar strength ahead of a possible large interest rate increase, though supply worries limited the decline.
Central banks around the world are certain to increase borrowing costs this week, and there is some risk of a blowout 1 percentage point rise by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
“The upcoming Fed meeting and the strong dollar are keeping a lid on prices,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
Brent crude for November delivery fell $1.76, or 1.9%, to $89.59. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October dropped $1.83, or 2.2%, to $83.28.
A British public holiday for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth was expected to limit activity.
Oil has soared in 2022, with Brent coming close to its all-time high of $147 in March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated supply concerns. Worries about weaker economic growth and demand have since pushed prices lower.
The U.S. dollar stayed near a two-decade high ahead of this week’s decisions by the Fed and other central banks. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on oil and other risk assets.
Oil has also come under pressure from forecasts of weaker demand, such as last week’s prediction from the International Energy Agency that the fourth quarter would see zero demand growth.
Despite those worries, supply concerns kept the decline in check.
“The market still has the start of European sanctions on Russian oil hanging over it. As supply is disrupted in early December, the market is unlikely to see any quick response from U.S. producers,” ANZ analysts said.
Easing COVID-19 restrictions in China, which had dampened the outlook for demand in the world’s second biggest energy consumer, could also provide some optimism, the analysts said.
Hong Kong tech leads losses in Asia; China cuts rates ahead of Fed, Bank of Japan meetings this week
Shares in the Asia-Pacific fell on Monday ahead of major central bank meetings this week.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was 0.89% lower in the final hour of trade, with the Hang Seng Tech index down 1.93%. South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.14% to 2,355.66 and the Kosdaq was 2.35% lower at 751.91.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.35% to 3,115.60 and the Shenzhen Component also declined 0.48% to 11,207.04. The People’s Bank of China cut its 14-day reverse repo rates.
The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was 0.28% lower at 6,719.90. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.59%.
Japan’s market was closed for a holiday Monday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/asia-markets-central-banks-economic-data-stocks-currencies.html
