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  • West Fraser Timber shares roiled after takeover speculation

    West Fraser Timber shares roiled after takeover speculation

    West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s WFG-T +14.72%increase share price went on a roller-coaster ride on Tuesday as investors speculated about a potential takeover of the producer of lumber and wood-based panels.

    West Fraser’s stock price jumped as much as 23 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange in the morning, shortly after Reuters reported that two European-based firms are interested in acquiring the Vancouver-based forestry company.

    The takeover fever later subsided as shares in West Fraser closed at $123.83, up $15.89 on the day, or a 15-per-cent gain. In a statement issued four hours after the TSX opened, West Fraser said it “is aware of recent market and media speculation,” and added that it previously met with Kronospan, an existing shareholder, and CVC Capital Partners, a private equity firm.

    Wales-based Kronospan is a major manufacturer of wood-based panels in Europe. Kronospan, through Banasino Investments Ltd., recently owned 8.2 million West Fraser common shares, or a 9.4-per-cent stake.

    West Fraser, Canada’s largest lumber producer, said it “has not received a proposal and there are no ongoing discussions regarding the terms of any transaction. The company is focused on executing on its business strategy to create shareholder value.”

    In late 2020, West Fraser announced a friendly deal to buy Norbord Inc. in a $4-billion transaction that added Norbord’s global manufacturing of panels used for construction sheathing and flooring. Norbord is the world’s largest producer of oriented strand board (OSB), an engineered panel product.

    B.C. billionaire Jim Pattison owns more than 8.9 million West Fraser common shares, or a 10.2-per-cent interest. Mr. Pattison, who supported West Fraser’s purchase of Norbord, also owns 52 per cent of Canada’s second-largest lumber producer, Canfor Corp.

    “Lumber is a commodity and it goes up and it goes down, and they’ve had big swings in the lumber business,” Mr. Pattison said in a phone interview on Tuesday from his Vancouver office. “Over all, we are happy with our investment in Canfor and with West Fraser.”

    Two-by-fours made from Western spruce, pine and fir sold for an average of US$625 for 1,000 board feet last month, compared with US$1,617.50 in May, 2021, when record highs were set, according to Vancouver-based industry newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.

    After completing a buyback of 11.9 million shares last month, West Fraser now has 87.5 million common shares and there are also 2.3 million class B shares. Based on Tuesday’s close on the TSX, the forestry company now boasts a market capitalization of more than $11-billion.

    A major shareholder in West Fraser is Seattle-based Ketcham Investments Inc., controlled by the family of Hank Ketcham, West Fraser’s chairman and former chief executive officer.

    Ketcham Investments recently owned 3.9 million West Fraser common shares and 1.7 million class B shares.

    The Ketcham family would have the ability to vote separately to approve or reject any major transaction. “Certain circumstances or corporate transactions may require the approval of the holders of our common shares and class B Shares on a separate class-by-class basis,” according to West Fraser’s management information circular issued in April.

    Potential buyers such as CVC Capital and Kronospan view West Fraser as three distinct units – the B.C. lumber operations, the U.S. lumber facilities and the Engineered Wood Products or EWP business in North America and Europe, according to three investment banking and legal sources. The Globe and Mail is not naming these sources because they are not authorized to speak about potential clients.

    The lumber operations generated a total of US$796-million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in the first three months of this year, while the North American and European EWP divisions posted US$808-million of adjusted EBITDA.

    West Fraser’s B.C. operations, founded by three Ketcham brothers in 1955 in Quesnel, B.C., face the greatest challenges as a result of Indigenous land claims and potential government regulation, according to three investment industry sources. In contrast, the other divisions have strong growth prospects.

    If successful, CVC and Kronospan or another bidder might subsequently focus on expansion in the U.S. and Europe and sell lumber operations on the West Coast to a Canadian player, such as a pension fund, to pay down debt and streamline operations, according to the investment industry sources.

    Kronospan and CVC are both based in Europe, and as foreign companies, they would need federal government approval to acquire West Fraser. The investment industry sources said if West Fraser’s board made it clear the company is up for sale, a number of Canadian buyers would likely emerge, including pension plans.

    Two of B.C.’s largest forest product companies – TimberWest Forest Corp. and Island Timberlands LP – are owned by a pair of pension plans: the British Columbia Investment Management Corp. and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board, which is based in Ottawa.

    A successful bid for West Fraser will likely require support from two long-time shareholders: Mr. Pattison and heirs to the founding Ketcham family. Three sourceswho know the Ketcham family say they remain close knit and would vote as a block on any takeover offer. Mr. Pattison is known for buying and holding investments.

    Luxembourg-based CVC Capital is one of the world’s largest private equity fund managers, with more than €125-billion inclient assets under management, and has done a number of acquisitions in the past with domestic partners that include the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

    Cole Smead, president and portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management based in Arizona, said West Fraser has hundreds of millions of dollars in lumber duty deposits sitting in the United States that could eventually be mostly recovered, assuming a resolution to the Canada-U.S. softwood dispute.

    “There’s money sitting outside of book value out there,” said Mr. Smead, who oversees a fund holding 70,000 West Fraser shares.

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  • Oil rises 1% as tight supply outweighs economic worries

    Oil rises 1% as tight supply outweighs economic worries

    Oil prices edged up about 1% to a two-week high in volatile trade on Tuesday as the market focused more on tight supplies and a weaker dollar than fears an economic slowdown will hit oil demand.

    Brent futures rose $1.08, or 1.0%, to $107.35 a barrel by 1:22 p.m. EDT (1722 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.53, or 1.55%, to $104.13.

    Brent was on track for its highest close since July 4 and WTI for its highest close since July 8.

    Oil prices have whipsawed, supported by supply fears due to Western sanctions on Russia, but pressured by global central bank efforts to tame inflation which stoked fears that a potential recession could cut energy demand.

    The U.S. dollar slid to a two-week low against a basket of other currencies, bolstering oil demand by making it less expensive for buyers using other currencies.

    In a move that could pose a problem for supplies, Libya’s new National Oil Corp (NOC) chief Farhat Bengdara rejected challenges to his appointment and as work resumed at some shuttered fields and ports.

    Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden visited top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whose crude exports slipped in May to a four-month low at 7.050 million barrels per day (bpd).

    Biden hoped to strike a deal on an oil production boost to tame fuel prices, but got no clear assurances from Saudi officials. The kingdom’s foreign minister said he saw no shortage of crude in the market, just a lack of refining capacity.

    In the United States, expectations for an increase in crude inventories weighed on prices. Analysts polled by Reuters forecast crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels last week. [EIA/S] [API/S]

    The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, will issue its inventory report at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

    The U.S. 3:2:1 and gasoline crack spreads – measures of refining profit margins – both fell to their lowest since April.

    “Crack spreads continuing plunge of past four weeks to narrowest level since late April … suggesting weakening product demand,” said analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates, a consultancy.

    Early in the session, oil prices fell on weak economic data from around the world.

    New U.S. home-building activity fell in June to a nine-month low. In China, stocks closed lower with foreign investors dumping the most shares in more than a month. The International Monetary Fund warned that any Russian action to stop supplying Europe with natural gas would trigger economic contractions in several countries.

    Yet flows of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany spiked ahead of the end of annual maintenance as the operator carried out pressure tests.

  • Dow rallies more than 700 points in rebound as traders bet that the bottom is in

    Dow rallies more than 700 points in rebound as traders bet that the bottom is in

    Stocks rallied Tuesday, with the market resuming a bounce from last month’s lows, as traders bet on strong corporate earnings reports, and wagered that markets have found a bottom.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 754.44 points, or 2.43%, to 31,827.05 — closing near the highs of the session as gains accelerated in the final hour of trading. The S&P 500 gained 2.76% to 3,936.69. The Nasdaq Composite rose 3.11% to 11,713.15.

    All three major averages are above their 50-day moving averages for the first time since April. The broader market index is now 8% off its June lows.

    Investors are betting that stocks have reached a bottom after their steep declines this year, and as the latest round of earnings reports showed businesses are working through economic pressures better than feared in the second quarter. 

    “Both investors and the companies were expecting hot inflation, so companies talking about hot inflation having happened in that second quarter was not a surprise at all,” said Kim Forrest, founder and chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. “What was a surprise was that they were able to manage through it well.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/18/stock-futures-are-flat-after-dow-reverses-course-to-start-busy-earnings-week.html

  • Netflix only loses 970,000 subscribers in second quarter after warning of loss of 2 million

    Netflix only loses 970,000 subscribers in second quarter after warning of loss of 2 million

    Netflix reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results:

    • EPS: $3.20 vs $2.94 per share, according to Refinitiv.
    • Revenue: $7.97 billion, vs. $8.035 billion, according to Refinitiv survey.
    • Global paid net subscriber additions: A loss of 970,00 subscribers vs. expectations of a loss of 2 million, according to StreetAccount estimates.

    Analysts are split on whether subscriber losses will be better or worse than Netflix predicted. Some expect the company to lose as many as 4 million subscribers, while others foresee a loss of 1.5 million.

    Those who expect smaller subscriber losses have pointed to the streaming service’s popular series “Stranger Things.” The fourth season of the show was released in two parts, one at the end of the second quarter and one at the beginning of the third. Some analysts expect that the split may have limited churn or even driven subscribers to sign up or return.

    The company’s guidance for subscriber numbers in the third and fourth quarters will likely be more important than second-quarter figures. Another forecast of subscriber losses could send the company’s stock spiraling.

    According to StreetAccouont estimates, analysts expect around 1.8 million net subscriber adds in the third quarter, as Netflix’s slate of content increases and concerns about price increases ebb.

    There is also the hotly anticipated ad-supported plan, which is in the works and could lure back lapsed customers or encourage new sign-ups with a lower price point. No date has been set for the roll-out of the option, but more information about its development Tuesday could improve investor confidence in the company.

  • Canada’s West Fraser Timber target of joint bid by private equity firm CVC, panel maker Kronospan: report

    Canada’s West Fraser Timber target of joint bid by private equity firm CVC, panel maker Kronospan: report

    Private equity firm CVC Capital and wood panel manufacturer Kronospan have submitted a joint expression of interest to acquire Canadian lumber company West Fraser Timber Co, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

    Shares in West Fraser, which has a market capitalization of $10.6 billion, rose more than 18 per cent in morning trading in Toronto on the news.

    CVC and Kronospan have informed West Fraser’s management they would like to proceed with deal negotiations, the sources said. The acquisition terms they proposed could not be learned.

    There is no certainty that the parties would agree to any deal, the sources said, asking not to be identified because the matter was confidential.

    CVC declined to comment, while West Fraser and Kronospan did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    The acquisition interest in West Fraser follows a two-year rally in its shares, as more people isolating and turning to home improvement during the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in demand for products such as lumber and plywood.

    The housing market was boosted more broadly by people seeking more space as they worked from home.

    But the company also faces headwinds. It said in its most recent earnings call in April that it had been struggling to fulfill orders because of transport and logistics problems in Western Canada that have persisted in the pandemic.

    Privately held Kronospan, run by Austrian businessman Peter Kaindl, is a European maker of wood panels such as particle board and laminate flooring. CVC has 125 billion euros ($128 billion) in assets under management, according to its website.

  • Before the Bell: July 19

    Before the Bell: July 19

    Equities

    Wall Street futures were higher early Tuesday as traders await late-day results from Netflix Inc. Major European markets steadied as the session progressed. TSX futures were modestly positive.

    In the early premarket period, futures linked to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all above water. A day earlier, all three closed lower despite strength early in the session. The S&P/TSX Composite Index bucked the trend, finishing Monday’s session up 1.09 per cent.

    Tuesday will see continued results from big U.S. companies, notably earnings from Netflix after the close of trading. Investors will be carefully watching the streaming giant’s subscriber numbers after a disappointing showing in the previous quarter.

    “The implosion in Netflix share price has been something to behold on the last few months,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst with CMC Markets U.K., said.

    “Since the heady heights of US$700 in November last year, we’ve seen a collapse in confidence that has returned the shares to levels last seen in 2017.”

    He said subscriber growth, which had been the main driver for gains in 2020, came to a halt in the first quarter of this year, with investors questioning whether Netflix had peaked.

    “The main fear for Netflix shareholders over the past few years was how would the business cope once its deeper pocketed rivals started to cotton on to the streaming model that Netflix had helped shape over the last ten years,” he said. “It appears we are starting to see the answer to that question, with the emergence of Disney+ as its main new rival, while Amazon is also spending big on new content, with a new Lord of the Rings series called Ring of Power.”

    In the first quarter, Netflix surprised markets by reporting its first quarterly decline in subscribers in a decade. The company has said it expects to lose another 2 million subscribers in the second quarter, although it also forecast revenue growth of about 10 per cent year-over-year, Mr. Hewson said in a note.

    “This appears optimistic and the stronger US dollar certainly isn’t helping. Netflix said its currently producing films and TV in more than 50 countries, with three out of its six most popular TV seasons using non-English language titles, and yet refuses to hedge its FX exposure,” he said.

    In this country, The Globe’s Emma Graney and Marieke Walsh report the federal government says it plans to implement its oil and gas emissions cap through a new carbon pricing system, leaving the sector worried it will be charged more for greenhouse gas emissions than other heavy industries. And Canada’s largest oil-producing province says it won’t accept any federal plan that would harm its ability to produce fossil fuels.

    Reuters, citing unnamed sources, says private equity firm CVC Capital and wood panel manufacturer Kronospan have submitted a joint expression of interest to acquire Canada’s West Fraser Timber Co. U.S.-listed shares of West Fraser were up nearly 25 per cent in premarket trading.

    Overseas, the pan-European STOXX was up 0.03 per cent by midday. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.32 per cent. Germany’s DAX advanced 0.12 per cent while France’s CAC 40 slid 0.08 per cent. Reuters, citing sources, reported Tuesday that European Central Bank policymakers will discuss whether to raise rates by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points at the bank’s policy meeting this week. The rate decision is due Thursday.

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.65 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.89 per cent.

    S&P 500 FUTURES

    3,863.25+27.75 (0.72%)

    DOW FUTURES

    31,224.00+177.00 (0.57%)

    TSX 60 FUTURES

    1,129.60+5.90 (0.53%)

    PAST DAY

    0.77%0.57%0.53%

    CLOSE, JULY 18

    6:40 A.M., JULY 19

    SOURCE: BARCHART

    Commodities

    Crude prices fell in early going after the previous session’s strong showing fuelled by continued supply concerns.

    The day range on Brent is US$105.16 to US$106.98. The range on West Texas Intermediate is US$101.71 to US$103.40. Both benchmarks jumped by roughly 5 per cent on Monday.

    “Oil prices may have peaked, but they certainly don’t look like they’re going materially lower from here unless we get a huge surprise from OPEC+,” OANDA senior analyst Jeffrey Halley said.

    “Stubbornly firm economic data from the U.S. and improving data from China are other supportive factors. Risks remained skewed to the upside if Russian gas does not start flowing back to Europe at the end of this week.”

    Later in the session, traders will get the first of two weekly U.S. inventory reports with fresh figures from the American Petroleum Institute. That report will be followed Wednesday morning with more official U.S. government numbers.

    A Reuters poll suggests that analysts are expecting to see a rise in crude and distillate supplies while gasoline stocks are seen declining.

    In other commodities, gold steadied on Tuesday, helped by a pullback in the U.S. dollar.

    Spot gold traded around US$1,708.35 per ounce early Tuesday morning. U.S. gold futures eased 0.3 per cent to US$1,704.80.

    SPOT GOLD

    US$1,715.00+2.60 (0.15%)

    HIGH GRADE COPPER

    US$3.30-0.04 (-1.17%)

    WTI

    US$97.20-1.46 (-1.47%)

    PAST DAY

    0.28%-1.40%-2.23%

    CLOSE, JULY 18

    6:34 A.M., JULY 19

    SOURCE: BARCHART

    Currencies

    The Canadian dollar gained as its U.S. counterpart continued to pullback against a group of world currencies.

    The day range on the loonie is 76.98 US cents to 77.31 US cents.

    “So-so risk appetite may be restraining the CAD to some extent while crude prices are a little softer,” Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist with Bank of Nova Scotia, said.

    Investors are now awaiting the release on Wednesday of June inflation figures, which are expected to show the annual rate of inflation topped 8 per cent last month.

    On world markets, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.8 per cent to 106.64. That was below Monday’s low of 106.88 but also well back from the high of 109.29 last week, a level not seen since September 2002, according to Reuters.

    The euro, meanwhile, gained on a Reuters report that ECB policymakers are weighing hiking rates by a surprise half percentage point when they meet on Thursday.

    The euro rose as high as US$1.0254, up more than 1 per cent to its best level since early July.

    Britain’s pound rose 0.6 per cent to US$1.2017, near Monday’s one-week high of US$1.2032.

    CANADIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR

    US$0.7723+0.0022 (0.2909%)

    PAST DAY

    PREV. CLOSE2:57 A.M., JULY 19

    0:00 A.M., JULY 19

    US$0.7708

    6:34 A.M., JULY 19

    US$0.7723

    SOURCE: BARCHART

    More company news

    BHP says it is working to bring its Jansen potash mine into operation sooner than expected. The company says it is working to bring forward Stage 1 first production at the Saskatchewan mine to 2026. When BHP announced last year that it was going ahead with the project, the company said it wouldn’t come into operation until 2027. However, in an operational review released Tuesday, the company says the project is tracking to plan and it is working to begin production ahead of its initial schedule.

    Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday posted a 23.3-per-cent fall in quarterly profit and cut its full-year adjusted profit forecast as a stronger U.S. dollar dragged on its sales outside the United States. The company now expects a full-year adjusted profit of US$10.00 to US$10.10 per share, from its prior forecast of US$10.15 to US$10.35.

    Twitter Inc’s showdown with Elon Musk over his US$44-billion takeover faces its first test on Tuesday, when a judge will weigh the company’s bid for a fast-tracked trial which it says it needs to ensure deal financing doesn’t come unraveled. The San Francisco-based company is seeking to resolve months of uncertainty for its business as Musk tries to walk away from the deal over what he says are Twitter’s “spam” accounts that he says are fundamental to its value.

    Hasbro Inc reported a 10-per-cent rise in quarterly adjusted earnings, helped by demand for the toy maker’s tabletop game “Magic: The Gathering” and an increase in prices. The Monopoly maker reported adjusted net earnings of US$160.6-million in the second quarter ended June 26, compared with US$145.4-million a year earlier.

    Apple Inc plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some units to cope with a potential economic downturn, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The potential move would see Apple – the world’s most valuable company – join a growing pool of American corporations including Meta Platforms and Tesla Inc in slowing hiring.

    IT hardware and services company IBM Corp beat quarterly revenue expectations on Monday but warned that the hit from forex for the year could be about US$3.5-billion due to a strong U.S. dollar. IBM now expects a foreign exchange hit to revenue of about 6 per cent this year, Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh told Reuters. It had previously forecast a 3 per cent to 4 per cent hit. The results were released after Monday’s close.

    Chinese authorities are preparing to impose a fine of more than US$1-billion on ride-hailing firm Didi Global that could bring an end to a probe into the company’s cybersecurity practices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

    Economic news

    Euro area consumer price index for June. UK releases employment numbers.

    (830 am ET) U.S. housing starts for June.

    (830 am ET) U.S. building permits for June.

    With Reuters and The Canadian Press

  • July 19 : Oil prices ease from sharp spike, soft dollar supports

    July 19 : Oil prices ease from sharp spike, soft dollar supports

    Oil prices ran out of steam on Tuesday after gaining more than $5 a barrel in the previous session with concerns that surging crude will feed into a demand-killing recession slightly outpacing continued worries about tight supply.

    Brent crude futures for September settlement fell 1.5% to $104.67 per barrel. The contract rose 5.1% on Monday, the biggest percentage gain since April 12.

    WTI crude futures for August delivery dipped 1.71% to $100.84. The contract climbed 5.1% on Monday and the largest percentage gain since May 11.

    The August WTI contract expires on Wednesday and the more actively traded September future was at $98.98 a barrel, down 44 cents.

    Oil prices have been whipsawed between concerns about supply as Western sanctions on Russian crude and fuel supplies over the Ukraine conflict have disrupted trade flows to refiners and end-users and rising worries that central bank efforts to tame surging inflation may trigger a recession that would cut future fuel demand.

    The underlying supply/demand imbalance is as tight as ever,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, in a note. “Oil prices may have peaked, but they certainly don’t look like they’re going materially lower from here unless we get a huge surprise from OPEC+.”

    U.S. President Joe Biden visited top oil exporter Saudi Arabia last week, hoping to strike a deal on an oil production boost to tame fuel prices.

    However, officials from Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), did not give clear assurances an output increase was secured.

    Warren Patterson, head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said in a note that the market has had time to digest President Biden’s visit with a conclusion that it is unlikely that OPEC and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will increase output more aggressively than planned in the short term.

    Oil prices were backed by a softer U.S. dollar on Tuesday, which stood around a one-week low level, making greenback-dominated oil slightly cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

    “A weaker USD provided support to the market, along with the broader commodities complex,” ING’s Patterson said.

    The forecast of oil inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, was that crude and distillate supplies may have risen last week while gasoline stockpiles likely fell, according to a preliminary Reuters poll.

  • The froth is off: Canadian houses now selling at $200K discounts

    The froth is off: Canadian houses now selling at $200K discounts

    The plunge is merely a correction of a Canadian real estate market that has long operated beyond any reasonable notion of economic fundamentals

    The once-red hot Canadian real estate market is beginning to witness a trend that would have been unthinkable just months ago: Homes are starting to sell at a discount.

    Article content

    In Victoria, a luxury five-bedroom listed at $2.25 million ended up selling at $1.93 million — a drop of $320,000. In the same month, a home on the other coast — in Halifax — sold at $140,000 below its list price of $900,000.

    The Toronto suburbs, in particular, are yielding a near-daily stream of homes sold at discounts of more than $100,000.

    A detached home in Mississauga, west of Toronto, went on the market in April at $1.6 million. After two months, the sellers let it go for $1.38 million.

    A four-bedroom mini-mansion in Brampton, 40 km northwest of Toronto, hit the market at $1.8 million but ultimately sold for $1.5 million, a price reduction of $300,000.  A similar Brampton home spent 35 days on the market at a list price of $1.4 million before sellers accepted an offer that was more than $250,000 lower.

    Article content

    Many other sellers are rejecting low bids outright.

    Another phenomenon to hit Canadian real estate in recent weeks has been a spike in “delistings,” homes that are taken off the market after failing to attract any bids. In some regions of Ontario right now, more homes have been delisted in the past 30 days than have been sold.

    If sellers are chronically overestimating the values of their homes, it’s largely because Canadian home sales had spent more than a year being defined by the exact opposite phenomenon. This time in 2021, virtually every real estate market in Canada was seeing homes go to bidding wars that yielded sales up to 20 per cent higher than list prices.

    In Ottawa last September, the average list price was $524,000 against an average sale price of $670,000 — indicating that the average home was being bid up by $146,000. As recently as March, Toronto was seeing bids over asking of more than $500,000.

    Article content

    The return of “sold under ask” pricing to Canadian real estate is one of the most obvious signals of a market that is entering a period of prolonged freefall. In June alone, Canadian home prices fell by 1.9 per cent, which a Royal Bank analysis called the “largest-ever one-month decline.”

    “Canadian home prices are dropping faster and faster, especially in Ontario and parts of British Columbia,” it read.

    The biggest driver for the decline is the looming end of cheap debt. Last week, as part of its ongoing bid to curb skyrocketing inflation, the Bank of Canada upped its overnight rate to 2.5 per cent. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, by contrast, interest rates had sat at a rock-bottom 0.25 per cent.

    Thus far, the plunge is merely a correction of a Canadian real estate market that has long operated beyond any reasonable notion of economic fundamentals. In the last 20 years, average Canadian real estate prices have risen 375 per cent nationwide — a surge that has rendered home ownership unaffordable for millions of Canadians.

    Article content

    Even homes selling “below asking” are still fetching prices up to 100 per cent higher than the values they commanded just a few years ago.

    Last week, a five-bedroom outside the city limits of Fredericton, N.B., sold for $720,000 — just a touch under its list price of $725,000. In November 2019, however, that same house sold for just $475,000. Even with the “under ask” sale, that’s a rate of appreciation equivalent to nearly $8,000 per month.

    In Toronto last month, the average home price stood at $1.15 million, a decline of $100,000 from the $1.25 million that had reigned just two months prior.

    Nevertheless, after a fall and winter in which six-figure overbids had been routine, that “lower” price of $1.15 million is still 5.4 per cent higher than last summer.

  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower after a positive start to the week

    Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower after a positive start to the week

    • Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mostly lower Tuesday after a positive start to the week, and as investors digested Australia’s central bank’s meeting minutes.
    • Major U.S. stock indexes pulled back and closed lower after rallying earlier in the session.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 215.65 points or 0.69% to 31,072.61. The S&P 500 shed 0.84% to 3,830.85. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.81% to 11,360.05.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/asia-markets-reserve-bank-of-australia-stocks-currencies-oil.html