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Gold prices moved higher on Friday thanks to a weak dollar and rising hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Escalating tensions in the Middle East contributed as well to the yellow metal’s gains.

The dollar index dropped to 102.55, down nearly 0.5% from the previous close.

Gold futures for August ended up by $45.50 or about 1.85% at $2,498.60 an ounce. Gold futures gained 2.73% in the week, recording their 3rd successive weekly gain.

Silver futures for August ended up $0.436 or about 1.54% at $28.778 an ounce. Silver futures gained about 4.7% in the week.

Copper futures for August dropped to $4.1140 per pound, down $0.0250 from the previous close.

Markets are now pricing in just a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point cut by the Federal Reserve next month, down from 55% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In economic news today, preliminary data released by the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. has improved by more than expected in the month of August.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 67.8 in August after falling to 66.4 in July. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 66.9.

On the inflation front, the report said year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations were both unchanged from the previous month at 2.9% and 3%, respectively.

Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department said housing starts plunged by 6.8% to an annual rate of 1.238 million in July after jumping by 1.1% to a revised rate of 1.329 million in June.

Economists had expected housing starts to slump by 1.7% to an annual rate of 1.330 million from the 1.353 million originally reported for the previous month.

Monday August 19

Japan core machine orders

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for June.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for June.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for July. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.3 per cent.

(10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q2.

Earnings include: Estee Lauder Companies Inc.; Palo Alto Networks Inc.

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Tuesday August 20

Euro zone CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for July. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.4 per cent from June and up 2.5 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for July. Estimate is a decline of 0.2 per cent month-over-month and down 0.4 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: Lowe’s Companies Inc.

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Wednesday August 21

Japan trade deficit

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for July. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. preliminary release of annual payrolls benchmark revision.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed minutes released from July 30-31 calendar

Earnings include: Analog Devices Inc.; Macy’s Inc.; Target Corp.; TJX Companies Inc.

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Thursday August 22

Japan machine tool orders and PMI

Euro zone PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 17. Estimate is 235,000, up 8,000 from the previous week.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for July. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent on an annualized rate basis.

Also: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (through Saturday)

Earnings include: Canoe EIT Income Fund; Dollar Tree Inc.; Intuit Inc.; Toronto-Dominion Bank

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Friday August 23

Japan CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for June. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.3 per cent (or 0.4 per cent excluding automobiles).

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for July. Consensus is an annualized rate increase of 2.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY

Earnings include: Canadian Net REIT

RBC and TD Bank Group have agreed to pay tens of millions of dollars in penalties after being charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over recordkeeping violations.

RBC Capital Markets has agreed to pay US$45 million. Various TD divisions, including its recently acquired Cowen and Co., have agreed to pay a US$46.5 million penalty to the SEC plus a total of US$82 million to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The two banks are among 26 financial institutions that the SEC announced Wednesday had together agreed to pay about US$393 million along with implementing improvements to compliance policies.

The enforcement action is related to the use of electronic communications through text messages and other alternative channels that weren’t being preserved as required.

The regulator says it found “pervasive” levels of off-channel communications at the two banks, both between employees and with clients.

RBC said in a statement it was pleased to have resolved the matter and remains focused on upholding all regulatory requirements. TD said it co-operated fully with regulators and that it’s enhancing its electronic communications policies and procedures.

The penalties are part of a wider enforcement effort by U.S. regulators over communications methods that has led to over US$1.2 billion in penalties, including past payments made by Scotiabank and the Bank of Montreal.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 15, 2024.

• Qatar’s prime minister told Iran’s leader to refrain from attacking Israel while Gaza cease-fire negotiations are ongoing in Doha, according to The Washington Post.
• The talks are set to resume Friday.

U.S. crude oil futures fell 3% on Friday amid reports that Qatar told Iran to not attack Israel while Gaza cease-fire talks are ongoing.

Qatar’s prime minister told Iran’s leaders in a phone call after the first day of Gaza cease-fire talks in Doha Thursday that they should de-escalate, warning of the consequences of attacking Israel when progress is being made in the negotiations, two diplomats told The Washington Post.

Here are Friday’s energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate September contract: $76.13 per barrel, down $2.02, or 2.58%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 6.2%.
• Brent September contract: $79.15 per barrel, down $1.91, or 2.36%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 2.7%.
• RBOB Gasoline September contract: $2.31 per gallon, down 4 cents, or 1.81%. Year to date, gasoline is up 10.2%.
• Natural Gas September contract: $2.16 per thousand cubic feet, down 3 cents, or 1.32%. Year to date, gas is down 13.7%.

The cease-fire talks were paused Friday, with negotiations expected to meet again next week.

The U.S. benchmark jumped more than 4% on Monday on fears that an attack by Iran on Israel was drawing closer. Iran has vowed to retaliate over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran in late July.

Prices have subsequently pulled back as an assault has not yet materialized. Worries about softening oil demand in China have also weighed on the market.

“The pendulum of price influence keeps swinging between fundamentals and geopolitics, with today’s selloff seemingly dictated by negotiations in the Middle East and an ongoing lack of retaliation by Iran,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler.   

Consumer spending held up even better than expected in July as inflation pressures showed more signs of easing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, according to numbers that are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase. June sales were revised to a decline of 0.2% after initially being reported as flat.

Excluding auto-related items, sales increased 0.4%, also better than the 0.1% forecast.

There was also good news on the labor market front: Initial unemployment benefit claims for the week ending Aug. 10 totaled 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week and lower than the estimate for 235,000.

Gains in sales were propelled by increases at motor vehicles and parts dealers (3.6%), electronics and appliance stores (1.6%) and food and beverage outlets (0.9%). Miscellaneous retailers saw a plunge of 2.5% while gas stations saw receipts climb just 0.1% and clothing stores were down 0.1%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/retail-sales-july-2024-.html

Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV) on Tuesday reported second-quarter earnings of $79.5 million.

On a per-share basis, the Toronto-based company said it had profit of 41 cents. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 75 cents per share.

The results fell short of Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 78 cents per share.

The precious metals streaming and royalty company posted revenue of $260.1 million in the period.

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This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research.

Access a Zacks stock report on FNV at https://www.zacks.com/ap/FNV

Inflation rose as expected in July, driven by higher housing-related costs, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that is likely to keep an interest rate cut on the table in September.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 3%.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3.2% annual rate, meeting expectations.

The annual rate is the lowest since March 2021, while the core is the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Headline inflation was 3% in June.

A 0.4% increase in shelter costs was responsible for 90% of the all-items inflation increase. Food prices increased 0.2% while energy was flat.

Stock market futures were mildly negative after the report while Treasury yields were mostly higher.

Though food inflation was soft on the month, multiple categories saw sizeable increases, most notably eggs, which were up 5.5%. Cereals and bakery items declined 0.5% while dairy and related products fell 0.2%.

Inflation readings have been gradually drifting back to the central bank’s 2% target. A report Tuesday from the Labor Department showed that producer prices, a proxy for wholesale inflation, rose just 0.1% in July and were up 2.2% year over year.

Fed officials have indicated a willingness to ease, though they’ve been careful not to commit to a specific timetable nor to speculate about the pace at which cuts might occur. Futures market pricing currently points to about an even chance of a quarter- or half-percentage point reduction at the Sept. 17-18 meeting and at least a full point in moves by the end of 2024.

As inflation has eased, percolating concerns about a slowing labor market seemed to have raised the likelihood that the Fed will start cutting for the first time since the early days of the Covid crisis.

“Coming down but the sticky areas continue to be sticky,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in describing the CPI report. “We have to keep a close eye on both the inflation data as well as the employment data.”

There were several crosscurrents in the report that indeed suggest inflation is stubborn in some areas.

CAE Inc. is reporting a big drop in profits for its latest quarter as the company grapples with supply-chain constraints.

The flight simulator maker says net income attributable to shareholders fell 26 per cent to $48.3 million in the quarter ended June 30 from $65.3 million in the same period a year earlier.

The Montreal-based company says its revenue rose six per cent to $1.07 billion from $1.01 billion the year before.

CAE says adjusted earnings in its first fiscal quarter decreased 13 per cent to 21 cents per share from 24 cents per share last year.

CAE chief executive Marc Parent says the company’s more than 50 per cent year-over-year backlog growth to $17 billion speaks to a sunny horizon despite “supply-chain headwinds.”

The company says it is targeting about 10 per cent growth in adjusted operating income for its civil aviation segment this year and annual revenue growth in the low- to mid-single-digit range for its beleaguered defence business.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 13, 2024.

2024 THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

•  Sales of $6,651.8 million, up 3.5%
•  Food same-store sales⁽¹⁾ up 2.4%
•  Pharmacy same-store sales⁽¹⁾ up 5.2%
•  Net earnings of $296.2 million, down 14.6%, and adjusted net earnings⁽¹⁾ of $305.0 million, down 3.1%
•  Fully diluted net earnings per share of $1.31, down 12.1%, and adjusted fully diluted net earnings per share⁽¹⁾ of $1.35, unchanged versus last year
• Transition to the new automated Terrebonne distribution centre completed

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/metro-reports-2024-third-quarter-results-875071818.html