Why TRI.TO Has Fallen — Past 6 Months

The numbers first: TRI hit a 52-week high of $218.42 USD on July 14, 2025, and crashed to a 52-week low of $85.02 on February 5, 2026 Million Dollar Journey — a drop of roughly 61% peak to trough. That is not a dip. That is a collapse.

Three distinct causes drove this:

1. Valuation was stretched to begin with TRI spent 2024–early 2025 being priced as an AI winner — the market rewarded it for CoCounsel and its legal AI push. That premium was built on expectations of massive AI monetization. When reality set in that growth was solid but not spectacular, the premium evaporated fast.

2. Earnings were fine — but “fine” wasn’t enough Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance were broadly in line with consensus. It didn’t matter — shares still fell 6% after the earnings release on February 5. CNBC Revenue grew 3% for the full year. Earnings actually fell 32% year-over-year. The Globe and Mail The market had priced in an AI growth company; it got a steady information services business.

3. Anthropic’s legal AI tool triggered a panic sell-off — in a single day This is the biggest single event. When Anthropic released productivity tools for lawyers in late February, data providers and legal software companies took massive hits globally, as investors grew more skeptical of software providers facing AI disruption. Two ETFs tracking software and financial data stocks lost a combined US$300.6 billion in market value. Yahoo Finance TRI experienced its largest ever single-day intraday drop, falling as much as 17%. Simply Wall St

The core fear investors had: “These applications that are simply a wrapper around what already exists in an LLM, I do not understand what the enduring moat is” Yahoo Finance — meaning if Anthropic can do legal research directly, why does anyone need Westlaw?

The specific concern is that Claude’s legal plugin threatens TRI’s new client growth by potentially shifting budgets and workflow ownership away from TRI’s core research products. StockAnalysis

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Is the Fear Actually Justified?

Partially — but the market likely overreacted. Morningstar analysts argue TRI’s business is not likely to be eliminated by AI, noting the plugin “has nothing to do with legal research, which is the core value proposition and wide-moat foundation” of TRI’s legal business. Yahoo Finance

What TRI actually has that pure AI can’t easily replicate: decades of proprietary legal databases, trusted case law, regulatory filings, and professional relationships. Those are not easily reproduced by a chatbot. But the market is pricing in the risk that clients may not see it that way.

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Forecast: Next 3 Months (Mar – May 2026)

The partial recovery has already started. On February 24, TRI shares rose 11.66% in a single day, driven by the Anthropic-Thomson Reuters partnership announcement and Q4 EPS of $1.07 beating expectations. INDmoney That rebound was the market repricing the Anthropic relationship from “threat” to “partner.”

What analysts are saying now:

• 11 analysts have an average “Buy” rating with a 12-month price target of $164.55 The Globe and Mail — roughly 48% above where it sits today (~$111 USD)
• 2026 guidance calls for organic revenue growth of 7.5–8%, EBITDA margin expansion of 100 basis points, and free cash flow of ~$2.1B CNBC
• TRI announced a $600M share buyback program, signaling management’s confidence that the stock is undervalued The Motley Fool Canada

Realistic 3-month outlook:

The stock will likely recover toward the $120–$135 USD range, but not back to $218. Here’s why the recovery will be slow:

• The AI disruption debate is not resolved — every new AI legal tool announcement will re-ignite selling pressure
• The valuation multiple won’t re-rate meaningfully until the AI debate resolves — structural uncertainty over terminal growth limits upside StockAnalysis
• The $600M buyback provides a floor — management buying their own stock puts a bottom under the price

Bottom line: TRI got obliterated by a combination of stretched valuation, modest earnings, and a panic sell-off triggered by an AI tool that is arguably not even a direct competitor to their core product. The business itself is intact and profitable. The next 3 months should see a partial recovery — but don’t expect the 2025 highs anytime soon. The AI disruption narrative will hang over this stock until TRI proves CoCounsel is genuinely growing revenue, not just user numbers.