SU.TO historical share prices (6 months) with WTI prices—correlation and forecast for the next 3 months SU.TO share price based on (1) 5% WTI price increase and (2) a 5% decrease

SU.TO (Suncor Energy) maintains a strong positive correlation with WTI crude oil prices over the past 6 months (and historically), as is typical for this major integrated Canadian oil producer with significant upstream exposure.

Recent Historical Overview (approx. Dec 2025 – June 25, 2026)

• SU.TO (TSX, CAD): Traded in the $50s–$60s earlier in the period, rallied strongly with oil (peaking near $90–$96 in spring/early May 2026), then declined sharply in May–June amid falling oil. Recent closes: ~$77–$80 (e.g., ~$77.49–$77.55 on June 24–25, 2026).
• WTI (USD/bbl): Peaked higher (around $90–$100+ in spring) before declining to the ~$70–$72 range recently (e.g., front-month futures around $71–$72 on June 25, 2026).

Both moved directionally together, with SU.TO gaining from higher realizations (and downstream refining providing some buffer) but pulling back with the recent oil weakness.

Correlation

• Strong positive correlation: Historical analyses (multi-year) show Pearson correlations of ~0.58–0.64 between SU and WTI/Brent, meaning oil explains a substantial portion (~34–41% via r²) of SU price variance.
• In the recent 6-month period, the linkage remained evident in the co-movement during the spring rally and subsequent decline. Other factors (CAD/USD FX, refining margins, costs, company ops, broader markets) moderate the relationship. Suncor’s integrated model (oil sands production + refining) offers some resilience compared to pure upstream peers.

Sensitivity Context

• A ~US$1/bbl change in WTI can impact Suncor’s adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) by roughly $200 million annually (per older guidance; scales with production).
• Breakeven WTI has improved significantly (low $40s in some reports), supporting resilience.

3-Month Forecast Scenarios (from late June 2026 baseline)

Current baselines: SU.TO ~$77–$78 CAD; WTI ~$71–$72/bbl.

• +5% WTI scenario (~$3.55–$3.60 increase → ~$74.5–$75.6/bbl): Positive support for SU.TO. Given the correlation/sensitivity, expect ~3–8% upside (rough estimate; not 1:1 due to hedging, FX, margins, duration of move, and sentiment). This suggests a potential range of ~$80–$84 over 3 months (base case). Stronger sustained recovery + positive catalysts could push toward $85+. Analyst targets (broader 12-month) are higher, often in the $90s–$100+ CAD.
• -5% WTI scenario (~$3.55–$3.60 decrease → ~$67.5–$68.5/bbl): Downward pressure. Similar magnitude sensitivity implies ~3–8% downside, pointing to a potential range of ~$71–$75. Deeper or prolonged weakness (below key thresholds) could pressure cash flow, buybacks, and sentiment more, though Suncor’s lower breakeven and downstream help cushion.

Key caveats:

1. Not linear or guaranteed: Short-term moves can overshoot; longer-term depends on production, costs, WCS differentials, refining cracks, CAD strength (currently ~1.42 USD/CAD), geopolitics, OPEC+, demand, and macro factors.
2. Volatility is high in energy. Analyst consensus targets for SU.TO remain constructive overall but vary.
3. Overall: Strong historical tie to WTI supports upside in the +5% case and risk in the -5% case, with Suncor’s fundamentals providing a reasonable buffer.