Author: Consultant

  • Dollarama profit jumps 31.4% as shoppers continue to look to discount retailers for inflation relief

    Dollarama Inc. DOL-T -1.68%decrease reported a 31.4-per-cent increase in profit in its third quarter, as Canadians continue to turn to discount stores looking for some relief from the pressures of inflation.

    This has been an ongoing trend for Dollarama, which stocks products at prices up to $5 and has seen significant sales increases over the past two years. The Montreal-based discount retailer reported on Wednesday that comparable sales – an important industry metric that tracks sales growth not tied to new store openings – grew by 11.1 per cent in the quarter ended Oct. 29. That marked the sixth consecutive quarter in which comparable sales grew by a double-digit percentage.

    While on average, the size of shoppers’ baskets on each trip are only slightly higher than they were a year ago, people are visiting discount stores more often. Dollarama reported that it saw a 10.4-per-cent increase in the number of transactions at its stores in the quarter.

    The company’s net earnings grew to $261.1-million or 92 cents per share in the 13 weeks ended Oct. 29, compared to $201.6-million or 70 cents per share in the third quarter the prior year.

    Sales are up across product categories, and people continue to buy more “consumables” than usual at Dollarama, such as food and household products.

    But competition for those shoppers is ramping up as other retailers push back with their own discounted prices on those consumable products, chief executive officer Neil Rossy said on a conference call Wednesday to discuss the financial results.

    “On core consumables, we are seeing that the market is becoming more competitive,” Mr. Rossy said. “Extremely competitive, in fact.”

    Dollarama has seen some costs rise: its general, administrative and store expenses grew by 17.6 per cent in the third quarter compared to the same period the prior year, as store labour costs were up and the timing of some other operating costs fell within the quarter. But the company also saw its grow profit margin expand, as costs to ship products into the country decreased, as did logisticsexpenses.

    Sales grew by 14.6 per cent to nearly $1.5-billion. The increase was due to both new store openings – Dollarama had 1,541 as of the end of October, compared to 1,462 a year earlier – and sales growth at existing stores.

    Dollarama has opened 55 net new stores so far this fiscal year, and is on track to meet its goal of opening 60 to 70 new locations by the end of the year, Mr. Rossy said.

    On Wednesday, Dollarama boosted its sales outlook for the year, predicting that comparable store sales will increase by 11 to 12 per cent for the fiscal year ending Jan. 28, 2024. Its previous outlook, provided in mid-September, predicted comparable sales would grow by 10 to 11 per cent for the year.

    While Dollarama benefits from a tight economic environment, where consumers are looking for discounted products – a habit known in the industry as “trading down,” – Mr. Rossy noted that the retailer is not overly reliant on inflationary pressures to drive its business.

    “Consumers tend to look at Dollarama as a solution to having to trade down, and when the market and the economy are strong, there are just more dollars to spend. So Dollarama gets its share of those dollars, even if the percentage is smaller than it would be when there’s a trade down,” Mr. Rossy said. “I think that’s part of the strength of our business model, is that it’s resilient on both sides.”

  • Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.

    With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%. 

    Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated. 

    Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.

    The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years. 

    In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously. 

    Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening. 

    Inflation ‘eased over the past year’

    The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022. 

    “Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.

    That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.

    Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal. 

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.html

  • Consumer prices rose 0.1% in November from the prior month

    Prices across a broad range of goods and services edged higher in November as energy prices declined, providing hope that inflation could be on a lower trajectory.

    The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.

    While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month ago.

    Excluding volatile and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates and little changed from October.

    This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

  • Economic Calendar: December 11–December 15

    Monday December 11

    China CPI, PPI, aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans and money supply

    Japan machine tool orders

    Earnings include: Caseys General Stores Inc.; Mainstreet Equity Corp.

    Tuesday December 12

    (6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for November.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. consumer price index for November. The Street is expecting a flat reading from October and up 3.0 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. quarterly services survey for Q3.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. treasury budget for November.

    Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins

    Earnings include: Transcontinental Inc.

    Wednesday December 13

    Japan large manufacturing index

    Euro zone industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian national balance sheet accounts for Q3.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. producer price index for November. Consensus is an increase of 0.1 per cent from October and up 1.0 per cent year-over-year.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement and summary of economic projections with chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

    Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc.; Dollarama Inc.; Lennar Corp.

    Thursday December 14

    Bank of England policy announcement (7 a.m. ET)

    ECB policy announcement (8:15 a.m. ET)

    EU Summit in Brussels (through Friday)

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales and orders for October. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 2.7 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for October. The expectation is a year-over-year increase of 18.0 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Dec. 9. Estimate is 225,000, up 5,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for November. The Street is expecting a decline of 0.1 per cent from October and 0.1 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for November. Consensus is a decline of 0.8 per cent from October and down 2.0 per cent from the same period a year ago.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canadian existing home sales for November. Estimate is a year-over-year decline of 1.0 per cent with average prices rising 1.5 per cent.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for November. Estimate is a rise of 0.8 per cent year-over-year.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for December.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for October. Consensus is a flat reading month-over-month.

    Earnings include: Costco Wholesale Corp.; Empire Co. Ltd.; Enghouse Systems Ltd.; Oracle Corp.; Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust; Transat AT Inc.

    Friday December 15

    China retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

    Japan and Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI

    (8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for November. Estimate is an annualized rate rise of 0.1 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for October. Estimate is a 1.1-per-cent decline month-over-month.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for October.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for December.

    (9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for November. Consensus is a decline of 0.2 per cent from October with capacity utilization increasing 0.2 per cent to 79.1 per cent.

    (12:25 ET) Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Canadian Club in Toronto.

    Earnings include: Darden Restaurants Inc.; Wall Financial Corp.

  • The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November

    The US economy notched another solid month of job growth, with an added lift from actors and autoworkers coming off the picket lines.

    Employers added 199,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.7% from 3.9% the month before, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.

    “The economy’s still humming along,” Jane Oates, a former Department of Labor official who now is CEO of employment education nonprofit WorkingNation, told CNN. “For the past two weeks, all we’ve heard is doom and gloom about how this is going to be a terrible day. And it was a much better day than was predicted.”

    Economists were expecting net job gains of 180,000 for the month and for the unemployment rate to hold steady, according to Refinitiv.

    The labor force participation rate ticked up 0.1 percentage points to 62.8%, returning to its highest level since the onset of the pandemic. The participation rate increase is a “positive underlying context to the unemployment rate decline,” wrote Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor’s lead economist, in commentary issued Friday.

    The largest employment gains last month came in health care and government, which added an estimated 93,200 and 49,000 jobs, respectively. Manufacturing saw a boost, too, largely because of the return of striking autoworkers, which lifted motor vehicles and parts employment by 30,000 jobs.

    Additionally, the resolution of the Screen Actors Guild strike against Hollywood studios resulted in 17,200 jobs added in the motion picture and sound recording industries.

    In total, the BLS was anticipating a net gain of 35,000 workers returning after strikes: The agency estimated that 61,000 workers were absent from the labor market due to labor disputes, versus 96,000 the month before.

    Taking into account those one-time gains, the underlying rate of job growth is likely around 160,000 jobs per month, which aligns with the 2019 average, wrote Julia Pollak, senior economist with ZipRecruiter.

    November’s jobs number is in line with the strong monthly gains hit in the decade before the pandemic, when 183,000 jobs per month were added. The current rate of job growth also is well above the “neutral rate,” or what’s needed to keep up with population growth.

    “It is critical to put this data in the proper context,” Joseph Brusuelas, principal and chief economist of RSM US, wrote in a note on Friday. “Given long-term demographic changes and structural transformation of the US economy to keep employment stable, only 75,000 jobs per month need to be created, in contrast with the roughly 200,000 that was the case just over a decade ago.”

    Retail drop-off

    The biggest declines occurred in the retail trade and temporary help services sectors, which lost 38,400 jobs and 13,600 jobs, respectively.

    “The [reason for the] reduction of jobs in retail is very similar to the reduction of jobs in other places, except retail hasn’t been able to absorb — and that’s technology,” Oates said.

    As e-commerce and in-store pick-ups become more engrained in how people shop, that leads to fewer people needed at the brick-and-mortar level.

    https://ix.cnn.io/dailygraphics/graphics/20230227-bls-monthly-jobs-sectors-live/index.html?initialWidth=910&childId=graphic-20230227-bls-monthly-jobs-sectors-live&parentTitle=The%20US%20economy%20added%20199%2C000%C2%A0jobs%C2%A0in%20November%20%7C%20CNN%20Business&parentUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2023%2F12%2F08%2Feconomy%2Fnovember-jobs-report-final%2Findex.html

    What this means for the Fed

    November’s job growth was stronger than October’s unrevised tally of 150,000 jobs added. September’s job gains were revised down to 262,000 from 297,000, according to the BLS.

    The continued strength in the labor market has helped fuel consumer spending and economic growth, but Federal Reserve officials believe slower demand (and slower wage growth) will help bring down inflation.

    Friday’s jobs report showed that average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in November from the month before, showing a more accelerated pace of growth than the 0.2% uptick seen in October and the 0.3% expected by economists.

    Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 01, 2023 at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent, keeping rates the highest they have been in 23 years.

    Fed Chair Powell: Too early to say when to expect rate cuts

    On an annual basis, however, wage gains eased to 4% from the 4.1% rate seen a month before.

    Through November, the economy has added an average of 232,000 jobs per month — far more moderate growth than 2022 and 2021, when an estimated 399,000 and 606,000 jobs were added every month, respectively.

    Friday’s strong jobs report likely keeps the Fed’s options open, although cooling inflation should mean that another pause is in store when the central bank meets next week, wrote Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist.

    “Labor market endurance will lead Fed officials to retain some optionality for future rate hikes, if needed,” she wrote. “We expect policymakers will resist talking about rate cuts until early 2024.”

  • Russia, Saudi Arabia urge all OPEC+ countries to join group’s agreement on output cuts

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have urged all OPEC+ countries to join the group’s agreement on output cuts, saying it would serve the interests of the global economy.

    The appeal was made in a joint statement published on Thursday after the two met a day earlier and also said that Russia and Saudi Arabia had agreed it was important to boost co-operation in oil and gas, including in equipment supplies.

    Following last week’s OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia agreed to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into the first quarter, while Russia said it would continue to curb oil exports by 300,000 bpd and additionally reduce its fuel exports by 200,000 bpd in January-March.

    The total curbs amount to 2.2 million bpd from eight producers, OPEC said in a statement after the meeting last week.

    But not all OPEC+ members agreed to extend or deepen the voluntary oil cuts and the latest statement from Putin and Mohammed bin Salman appears to be appealing to those countries.

    “In the field of energy, the two sides commended the close co-operation between them and the successful efforts of the OPEC+ countries in enhancing the stability of global oil markets,” the statement said.

    “They stressed the importance of continuing this co-operation, and the need for all participating countries to join the OPEC+ agreement in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy.”

    OPEC+’s output of some 43 million bpd already reflects cuts of about 5 million bpd aimed at supporting prices and stabilizing the market.

  • CN announces deal to acquire Iowa Northern Railway

    Canadian National Railway Co. CNR-T +0.47%increasesays it’s acquiring Iowa Northern Railway, pending regulatory review.

    In a press release Thursday evening, CN says it has signed and closed an agreement to acquire the railway, which serves upper Midwest agricultural and industrial markets.

    The Iowa railway operates approximately 275 track miles in Iowa connecting to CN’s U.S. rail network.

    CN says the transaction “represents a meaningful opportunity to support the growth of local business by creating single-line service to North American destinations.”

    Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

    CN says a decision from the U.S. Surface Transportation Board regarding the decision is expected in the new year.

  • Bank of Canada holds key interest rate steady at 5% in final decision of 2023. Here’s what’s next

    The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5 per cent for the third consecutive decision and warned that it could raise rates again. It said monetary policy is working to cool inflation but gave few hints that it is preparing to lower rates.

    Markets believe the bank will start cutting rates in the first half of next year.https://charts.theglobeandmail.com/Zn08W/1/

    Find updates from our reporters and columnists below.


    12:15 P.M.

    What’s next?

    Toni Gravelle. the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, is photographed during webcast on June 4 2020.FRED LUM/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
    • Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle will deliver an Economic Progress Report on Thursday outlining the bank’s rationale for today’s decision. The speech in Windsor, Ont., starts at 12:50 p.m. ET, followed by a news conference at 2:10 p.m. ET.
    • The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement is on Jan. 24. It will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, with updated forecasts for inflation and economic growth.
    • Statistics Canada will release November inflation data on Dec. 19 and October GDP numbers on Dec. 22.
    • The U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate announcement is on Dec. 13. Most economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady but will be watching for any changes of tone that hint at where U.S. monetary policy is headed.
  • Oil steady as markets weigh OPEC+ cuts against Chinese demand concerns

    Oil prices were steady on Wednesday, as investors weighed the effectiveness of an extension in OPEC+ cuts in tightening supply against a worsening demand outlook in China.

    Brent crude futures fell 5 cents, or 0.06 per cent, to $77.15 a barrel by 0900 GMT. U.S. WTI crude futures fell by 16 cents, or 0.22 per cent, to $72.16 a barrel.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia (OPEC+) agreed on voluntary output cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024 late last week.

    Saudi and Russian officials added this week that the cuts could be extended or deepened beyond March.

    But both benchmarks closed at their lowest level since July 6 in the previous session, on a run of four straight days of losses.

    “The decision to further reduce output from January failed to stimulate the market and the recent, seemingly co-ordinated, assurances from Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend the constraints beyond 1Q 2024 or even deepen the cuts if needed have also fallen to deaf ears,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

    Concerns over China’s economic health, which could limit overall fuel demand in the world’s second largest oil consumer, also weighed on prices.

    Rating agency Moody’s lowered the outlook on China’s A1 rating to negative from stable on Tuesday, citing “increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector”.

    China will release preliminary trade data, including crude oil import data, on Thursday. Earlier expectations showed China’s refinery runs to have declined in November.

    Russian president Vladimir Putin travels to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to meet with the UAE’s President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

    Oil and the OPEC+ agreement will be on the agenda, the Kremlin said.