Author: Consultant

Newsfile – Wed Apr 17, 6:02AM CDT Partnership Content

Internet, Everywhere–(Newsfile Corp. – April 17, 2024) – Shopify Inc. (NYSE, TSX: SHOP), a provider of essential internet infrastructure for commerce, plans to announce financial results for its first quarter, which ended March 31, 2024, before markets open on Wednesday, May 8, 2024.

Shopify’s management team will host a conference call to discuss the first-quarter results at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. The conference call will be available via webcast on the investor relations section of Shopify’s website at https://investors.shopify.com/news-and-events/.

An archived replay of the webcast will be available following the conclusion of the call.

Housing, affordability and generational fairness are the buzzwords in the 2024 federal budget, unveiled by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Tuesday. But the government’s newly announced spending goes well beyond those areas, and will be paid for partly with significant tax increases on the top income earners in Canada, and corporations.

Ms. Freeland detailed $53-billion in new spending over five years, $21.9-billion of which will be funded primarily through increases to capital gains taxes and excise duties on tobacco and vaping products. Of the new spending, $19-billion is allocated to new housing and affordability measures. The next biggest spend is $10.7-billion for defence, followed by $9.1-billion in new spending for Indigenous communities and businesses. Funding for economic growth measures comes in at $7.6-billion, and $6.4-billion in new funding is allotted for community health and safety.

Those umbrella categories include things such as $2.4-billion to process asylum seekers and refugees and provide them with housing and health care. The long-awaited federal disability benefit will be funded with $6.1-billion over six years. The budget also projects that the national pharmacare plan, a key part of the minority Liberal government’s deal with the NDP for support in the House of Commons, will cost $1.5-billion over five years.

Federal budget breakdown: New taxes, housing affordability and deficits for the foreseeable future – The Globe and Mail

Canada’s annual inflation rate rose slightly last month, accelerated largely by higher gas prices, data showed Tuesday.

Statistics Canada reported that the overall inflation rate in the country was 2.9 per cent year-over-year in March, up from 2.8 per cent the previous

Inflation ticked higher in March. Are Bank of Canada rate cuts still in the cards? (msn.com)

Monday April 15

Japan core machine orders

Euro zone industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian manufacturing sales and new orders for February. The Street is projecting month-over-month increases of 0.7 per cent and 1.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for February. Estimate is a rise of 0.8 per cent from January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian new motor vehicle sales for February. Estimate is a year-over-year rise of 20.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for March. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.4 per cent from February (or up 0.5 per cent excluding automobiles).

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for February. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.4 per cent

Earnings include: Charles Schwab Corp.; M&T Bank Corp.

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Tuesday April 16

China GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

Euro zone trade surplus

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for March. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 3.3 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for March. The Street expects an increase of 0.7 per cent from February and up 3.0 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for March. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 2.7 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for March. Consensus is a decline of 0.3 per cent on an annualized rate basis.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for March. Consensus is a rise of 0.4 per cent from February with capacity utilization gaining 0.2 per cent to 78.5 per cent.

(1:15 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell speak on the economy at the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings.

Also: Canadian federal budget is released.

Earnings include: Bank of America Corp.; Bank of NY Mellon; Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; Morgan Stanley; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; United Airlines Holdings Inc.; UnitedHealth Group Inc.

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Wednesday April 17

Japan trade balance

Euro zone CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian international securities transactions for February.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. beige book is released.

Also: G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington through Thursday.

Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories; CSX Corp.; Discover Financial Services; Kinder Morgan Inc.; Prologis Inc.; Progressive Corp.; U.S. Bancorp

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Thursday April 18

Japan machine tool orders

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian household and mortgage credit for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of April 13. Estimate is 215,000, up 4,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for March. Consensus is an annualized rate drop of 6.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for March. The Street expects a decline of 0.1 per cent from the previous month.

Earnings include: American Airlines Group Inc.; Blackstone Inc.; Netflix Inc.; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.

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Friday April 19

Japan CPI

Germany PPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for February.

Earnings include: American Express Co.; Procter & Gamble Co.; Schlumberger NV

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spent much of the past year shooting down speculation about when interest rates will start coming down. On Wednesday, he let his guard slip.

At a news conference following the latest stand-pat rate decision, Mr. Macklem was asked whether a June rate cut was within the realm of possibilities. After a long pause, he responded: “Yes, it’s within the realm of possibilities.”

To the uninitiated, that might seem like a small admission. But in the carefully choreographed language of central bankers – who can move multi-billion dollar markets with the change of an adjective – it was a major signal.

Whether interest rates start coming down in June, July or later depends on the next few inflation reports. And this week’s higher-than-expected inflation data from the United States puts the Bank of Canada in a tricky spot.

But the bank’s governing council has clearly begun debating when to start easing monetary policy. And for the first time since the early months of the pandemic, rate cuts are on the table.

The Globe and Mail sat down with Mr. Macklem several hours after the news conference to ask about rate cuts, a possible divergence between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, government spending and why central bank officials are sounding the alarm about Canadian productivity.

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

I have to start with your comment about a June rate cut being “within the realm of possibilities.” Is that a more or less likely possibility right now?

Tiff Macklem: Those weren’t my words, those were [Canadian Press reporter Nojoud Al Mallees’ words]. I was asked the question. Look, the answer is yes. It’s not the only possibility. And we’re going to take our decisions one at a time.

I’m not going to put it on a calendar. But we’ve been pretty clear, we’re encouraged by the progress we’ve seen. Since January – you look at all our inflation indicators – some are making more progress than others, but they’re all moving in the right direction. And what we’re looking for is for that to be sustained. We want to be confident that that’s durable. And when we are confident that it’s durable, it will be appropriate.

So we’ll see what decision date that actually happens on. But the message is we’re moving in the right direction. We are getting closer. We’re seeing what we need to see. We just need to see it for longer.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-were-seeing-what-we-need-to-see-we-just-need-to-see-it-for-longer-tiff

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday after an inflation-fueled selloff in the previous session, with investor assessing economic data from Singapore and South Korea.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses in the region, tumbling about 2%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.81% to close at 3,475.84.

The losses come as China’s exports for March fell more than expected, declining 7.5% compared to the 2.3% fall expected by economists polled by Reuters. This follows a weaker-than-expected rise in the country’s inflation on Thursday.

Singapore’s first-quarter gross domestic product climbed 2.7% year on year, advance estimates showed, faster than the 2.2% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023.

The city-state’s central bank held its monetary policy steady, leaving the width and level of its policy band unchanged. In contrast to other countries, Singapore uses exchange rate settings for its monetary policy, instead of a benchmark interest rate.

South Korea’s March unemployment rate rose to 2.8%. The country’s benchmark Kospi index slid 0.93% and ended at 2,681.82, but the small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.28% and closed at 860.47 after South Korea’s central bank kept policy rates unchanged at 3.5%, a 15-year high.

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Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.21% to 39,523.55, while the broad-based Topix rose 0.46% and ended at 2,759,64. The yen continued to weaken against the dollar, hitting as low as 153.29.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.33% to extend losses from Thursday and end at 7,788.1.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/asia-markets-live-updates.html

National Bank of Canada (NA-T -0.80%decrease, Wednesday’s close $112.92) remained in a wide horizontal trading range mostly between $85 and $105 for about two years (dashed lines). Earlier this year, the stock rallied above the top of this range to signal a breakout and the start of a new uptrend toward higher targets (A).

Behaviour indicators, including the rising 40-week Moving Average (40wMA), confirm the bullish status. National Bank is becoming overbought as it rallies far above the 40wMA, which increases the possibility of a minor correction, either in price (toward the average) or in time (horizontal trading range). There is good support near ±$105; only a sustained decline below $100-105 would be negative.

Point & Figure measurements provide an initial target of $124. The large trading range (dashed lines) supports higher targets.

Cenovus Energy CVE-T -3.15%decrease on Thursday said it plans to invest $1.5-billion in its Ohio refineries over the coming five years, including Lima and Oregon.

The investment in Ohio refineries include maintenance, reliability measures and market access projects, the company said.

Cenovus produces oil and natural gas with locations in Canada, the United States and the Asia Pacific region and is the largest refiner in the state of Ohio where it employs almost 1,200.

Cenovus’ Toledo refinery in Oregon, Ohio has a processing capacity of up to 160,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the company’s website. The Lima refinery has a refining capacity of 183,000 bpd, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Stocks tanked on Wednesday after March inflation data came in hotter than expected, likely pushing off interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that investors have been anticipating.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 436 points, or about 1.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively.

The S&P 500 had been treading water in April in anticipation of this inflation report following a roaring start to the year where the benchmark rallied 10% for its best first quarter gain in five years.

The CPI in March rose 0.4% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year, versus estimates of a 0.3% monthly increase and 3.4% year-over-year, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated 0.4% from the previous month while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. CPI in April increased at a 3.2% annual pace for all items.

Fed funds futures trading data now suggests just a 20.6% likelihood that the Fed will lower rates at its June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders are now betting that the first rate cut will likely take place at the central bank’s meeting in September.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgage and other loans, soared back above 4.5% as March CPI reaccelerated from the prior month, defying a Federal Reserve hoping for inflation to slow back to its 2% target. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked to nearly 5%.

Bank shares, including JPMorgan Chase and industrial shares like Caterpillar, both fell around 1% on worries higher rates will start to suffocate the economy. Once red-hot tech stocks like Nvidia and Meta also pulled back as investors dumped the bull market winners as their Fed rate-cut hopes were dashed.

“Disinflation is out and inflation is in with today’s CPI report,” said Karen Manna, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “The forecasts for Fed easing this year will be reassessed even lower.”

“This CPI report provides a jolt to the market. … [but] I don’t think that the CPI-induced sell-off changes the underlying primary trend,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist.

To be sure, Lerner added that “if the Fed’s likely going to be on the sidelines a bit longer, we really need the earnings to come through to justify the move that we’ve seen this year.”

In addition to the big inflation report on Wednesday, investors are also looking forward to the meeting minutes from the Fed’s gathering last month. They will be hunting for clues on where policymakers stand on expected rate cuts this year. Those will be released at 2 p.m. ET.