Author: Consultant

South Bow Corp. SOBO-T -0.53%decrease says it is exploring ways to leverage existing oil pipeline corridors to increase crude exports, in the wake of Prime Minister Mark Carney raising the prospect of reviving the long-dead Keystone XL pipeline project in discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The company said in a statement that while it’s not privy to discussions between the Canadian and U.S. governments, it supports any efforts to boost the transportation of Canadian crude.

“We will continue to explore opportunities that leverage our existing corridor with our customers and others in the industry,” the statement said.

During a conversation with Mr. Trump about energy co-operation, Mr. Carney brought up Keystone XL, which was designed to ship 830,000 barrels of crude a day along a 1,947-kilometre route from Hardisty, Alta., to Steele City, Neb.

The idea is to use the pipeline as leverage to alleviate tariffs for Canada’s steel and aluminum sectors if the construction of Keystone has Ottawa’s support, according to a senior federal government official.

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The official said that Mr. Trump was very receptive to the idea of reviving the pipeline,and that the topic will be an important one during follow-up discussions between Canada and the United States in the days ahead.

The Globe and Mail is not naming the official as they were not authorized to speak publicly about the issue.

Calgary-based company TC Energy Corp. TRP-T -0.96%decrease terminated Keystone XL in 2021, ending a project that appeared to have run out of options after Joe Biden pulled its permit as one of his first official acts as U.S. president.

The company then spun off its oil pipeline business into a new company, South Bow. In February, when Mr. Trump repeated calls to get the pipeline built, South Bow said that it had “moved on” from Keystone.

TC Energy’s decision to nix Keystone ended a 13-year regulatory odyssey that saw the proposed pipeline blocked twice by then-president Barack Obama and revived by Mr. Trump, his successor. The project’s cancellation was a significant blow to Alberta, whose economy has struggled in the face of constrained pipeline access and whose government bought an ownership stake under then-premier Jason Kenney in 2020.

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The pipeline, which had become a focal point for climate change activists in Canada and the United States, would have given Alberta oil companies a long-sought direct route to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The oil sectors of Canada and the U.S. are joined at the hip, with the U.S. importing more crude from its northern neighbour than from any other country.

About 40 per cent of U.S. refineries are specifically tooled for heavy crude – the kind produced in Canada, predominantly from the oil sands. In 2023, Canadian crude accounted for about 24 per cent of U.S. refinery output, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s about 3.9 million barrels a day – an increase from 17 per cent in 2013.

Although the U.S. remains the largest customer for Canadian crude, Mr. Trump’s global trade war has the oil sector here looking to expand its export options.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been pushing for another pipeline to the British Columbia coast, for example, which would open up more access to Asian markets thirsty for oil.

Last week, the Alberta government announced it was taking the lead on an application for a major new oil pipeline in an attempt to break through several federal policies that Ms. Smith has blamed for scaring away private investors.

Fiera Capital Corp. FSZ-T -4.10%decrease is locked in a legal battle with its recently terminated infrastructure head, with both sides suing each other after years of poor fund performance and investor redemption requests.

Alina Osorio, Fiera Infrastructure’s former president, is suing the company for wrongful dismissal, partly attributing her departure to differences over how to handle a large queue of investor redemption requests that now totals $700-million. Ms. Osorio, who sold her infrastructure business to Fiera a decade ago, also argues in her suit thatshe has the right to buy it back.

Two weeks after she filed her lawsuit in September, Fiera filed its own, alleging Ms. Osorio secretly tried to engineer a sale of Fiera’s majority stake in itsinfrastructure business and that she persistently refused to provide Fiera with investment information for the fund.

None of the allegations has been provedin court and neither partyhas filed aformal response yet. Thelawsuits extend the long-running drama at Fiera, which lost its largest shareholder – Desjardins Financial Holdings Inc. – last year and whose share price has been volatile since the company reversed its succession plan and founder Jean-Guy Desjardins took back control in January, 2023. (A new CEO has since taken the helm.)

The company’s shares are down 32 per cent since Mr. Desjardins returned, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index 

N/A is up roughly 45 per cent over the same period.

Fiera Infrastructure’s performance has also struggled. The fund aims to deliver stable returns by investing in private infrastructure assets and companies such as PureSky Energy, a solar and battery power storage platform in the U.S., and IslaLink, which owns fibre telecommunications infrastructure connecting the Balearic Islands to mainland Spain. However, the fund’s average annual return since the start of 2022 is only 1.2 per cent.

Fiera Capital announces new CEO as company overhauls executive leadership

In its lawsuit, Fiera alleges that certain investments spearheaded by Ms. Osorio “performed poorly” and that fund performance “under Ms. Osorio’s leadership was below its target range.”

Ms. Osorio joined Fiera in 2016 after the Montreal-based asset manager acquired an infrastructure fund she started, then turned it into Fiera Infrastructure, where she was president and co-owner. Today, the business is a division of Fiera’s private markets arm that invests in assets such as real estate, private equity and infrastructure.

In September, Fiera announced a leadership change for the business, naming Bruno Guilmette as its new global head of infrastructure.

At the time, Fiera said Ms. Osorio would step down as president but remain on Fiera Infrastructure’s board of directors and its investment committee. However, she filed a lawsuit in Ontario Superior Court the same day, alleging she was wrongfully terminated partly because she disagreed with how Fiera wanted to manage its large redemption queue.

Fiera Infrastructure manages $4.7-billion in assets, and its redemption queue had grown to $700-million because the fund can’t sell assets or bring new investors in fast enough to meet the requests.

Ms. Osorio alleges she proposed a “balanced approach”that included asset sales; allowing investors to exit by selling at a discount; and accelerating marketing of the fund to find new investors. But she alleges Fiera was insistent on selling assets, even if it had to be done at fire sale prices.

Fiera alleges in its suit that Ms. Osorio did not develop “a responsible plan to address the redemption queue” and instead proposed a sale of Fiera’s stake in the infrastructure business, adding that she was against bringing in new leadership.

Redemption queues are a hot topic in Canada because a growing number of investors are finding themselves trapped in private asset funds, with limited opportunity to exit them. Private asset funds are increasingly being sold to retail investors, some of whom do not understand the rules that allow fund managers to freeze or limit redemptionsin bad markets.

In Fiera Infrastructure’s case, the investors are largely institutions, charitable endowment funds and high-net-worth individuals, but even this sophisticated investor base has grown frustrated by the redemption queue.

In March, Richard Hylands, president of Montreal-based Kevric Real Estate Corp., a company that has developed major projects such as Place Bonaventure in Montreal and 150 Bloor Street in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood, sued Fiera and Mr. Desjardins after investing $50-million in Fiera funds, including the infrastructure fund, only to find some of it trapped by the redemption freeze.

Mr. Hylands declined to comment for this story.

In an e-mailed statement to The Globe and Mail, Fiera said that “while a redemption queue exists, it is being processed in the ordinary course under the governing documents with investment committee oversight and without forced or distressed sales. The strategy has been presented fairly to clients, and in accordance with our obligations.”

Gold raced past $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday as investors piled into a record-breaking rally in the safe-haven asset to hedge against global economic uncertainty, while also betting on U.S. interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,036.22 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.3% to $4,058. Silver also latched on to gold’s rally, gaining 2.4% to $48.97 per ounce, and just shy of its all-time high of $49.51.

Traditionally, gold is seen as a store of value during times of instability. Spot gold is up about 54% year-to-date, after gaining 27% in 2024. It is one of the strongest-performing assets of 2025, outpacing advances in global equity markets and bitcoin, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil are down for the year.

The rally has been driven by a cocktail of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, ongoing political and economic uncertainty, solid central bank buying, inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a weak dollar.

“Background factors are much the same as before, in terms of geopolitical uncertainty, with the added spice of the (U.S.) government shutdown,” StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said.

“The latter is not impeding strong equities but nonetheless there will be a degree of risk mitigation via bullion.”

The U.S. government shutdown, into its eighth day on Wednesday, has delayed the release of key economic data, forcing investors to rely on non-government sources to assess the timing and scope of Fed rate cuts.

Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, with a similar reduction expected in December.

Global crises, including the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine, have also contributed to increased demand for bullion, with political turmoil in France and Japan further amplifying the rush for safe-haven assets.

Renewed accumulation of developed-market ETFs for the first time in five years is also among the factors boosting this rally, said Michael Hsueh, precious metals analyst at Deutsche Bank.

Globally, inflows into gold ETFs hit $64 billion year-to-date, according to data from the World Gold Council, with a record $17.3 billion in September alone. Analysts expect strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs, central bank buying and lower U.S. interest rates to support gold prices in 2026 as well. Major banks have turned bullish on this rally.

“We had expected gold to reach the ($4,000) level closer to the end of the year, but the direction of travel remains consistent with our broader outlook,” said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, reiterating its forecast that prices would hit $4,530 an ounce by the end of the third quarter of 2026.

A “fear of missing out” is also boosting the rally, analysts said.

“One headwind for gold would be the Fed getting more hawkish on gold, but for the time being, Trump wants to see lower U.S. interest rates and that should keep increasing the appeal of gold,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

HSBC on Wednesday raised its average silver price forecasts for 2025 to $38.56 per ounce and for 2026 to $44.50, citing expectations for high gold prices, renewed investor demand and anticipated volatile trading. Gold’s momentum also seeped into other precious metals, with platinum gaining 2.4% to $1,652.80, while palladium climbed 4.1% to $1,392.26.

Teck Resources Ltd. TCK-N +3.55%increase has cut its production forecast yet again at its QB2 mine as it continues to grapple with engineering problems at the high-altitude operation in Chile.

Vancouver-based Teck announced the latest QB2 guidance cut as it tries to convince its investors to vote for the takeover of the company by Anglo-American PLC NGLOY +3.45%increase. 

Teck on Wednesday said that it is reducing its guidance to roughly 180,000 tonnes of copper from about 220,000 tonnes. The company had already cut its QB2 guidance in July and January. 

QB2 has been a problem asset for Teck for years. The US$8.7-billion project went 85 per cent over budget. After going into production in 2023, the ramp up didn’t go well either, with grade shortfalls, unscheduled maintenance shutdowns, and persistent technical issues.

This year, slow water drainage in the tailings dam has repeatedly dragged down production. Teck on Wednesday said it will spend an additional $420-million on the tailings dam in 2026, as it tries to achieve steady state production at the mine.

Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina said in a note on Wednesday that the updated QB2 guidance was worse than expected and that makes it less likely that Anglo will need to increase its offer for Teck.

“This makes the Anglo-Teck merger more likely to close without Anglo needing to bump,” he said.

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London-based Anglo in September said it intended to pay no premium to buy Teck, in an all-stock deal worth about $20-billion. 

Doubt exists in some quarters about whether Teck shareholders will approve the deal in a vote that is likely to happen in December, given the lack of a premium and questions over the timing of the transaction. 

“While the industrial logic of an Anglo-Teck combination is sound and the significant expected corporate/operational synergies are compelling, we continue to believe that the proposed transaction under the current terms appears unlikely to succeed,” Orest Wowkodaw, analyst with Scotia Capital, said in a note to clients on Wednesday. “As securing the minimum required Teck class B shareholder approval of 66 2/3 is likely to prove challenging.” 

About a week before the Anglo deal was announced, Teck launched a major overhaul at QB2 and cut ties with its chief operating officer, the second COO to leave the company amid problems at the mine.  

Still, despite years of problems, some analysts believe the problems at QB2 will get ironed out over time. 

“QB2 appears bent but not broken,” Mr. Wowkodaw said in his note. 

“Although the near-term guidance revisions are slightly weaker than we anticipated, our biggest takeaway is that QB2 does not appear to be a structurally broken asset,” he added.

Anglo chief executive Duncan Wanblad told The Globe and Mail last month he was confident the company would be able to fix any outstanding technical issues at QB2. He said that Anglo had overcome similar problems at one of its mines in the past. 

Teck owns 60 per cent of QB2 and is the operator. Japan’s Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd. and Sumitomo Corp. hold a 30-per-cent stake, and Chile’s National Copper Corporation owns 10 per cent.

novus Energy Inc. CVE-T +1.05%increase boosted its offer for MEG Energy Corp. MEG-T +5.52%increase to $8.6-billion in an attempt to win a hotly contested Alberta oil sands takeover battle.

Early Wednesday, Cenovus announced a cash-and-share bid of $29.80 per MEG share, up $1.32 per share from the offer the two companies announced in late August. The increased offer is meant to trump a hostile, all-share offer from Strathcona Resources Ltd. SCR-T +1.75%increase

Strathcona owns 14 per cent of MEG and has said it planned to vote against the Cenovus offer.

In recent weeks, institutional investors in MEG pressed Cenovus to sweeten its friendly bid ahead of a shareholder meeting originally scheduled for Oct. 9. MEG announced on Wednesday the meeting to vote on the offer is being pushed back to Oct. 22.

On Wednesday, Calgary-based Cenovus said the new deal represents its “best and final offer for MEG.”

MEG’s board of directors recommended shareholders vote in favour of the takeover. In a press release, MEG chair James McFarland said: “This marks the third enhancement to the terms originally put forward by Cenovus, delivering a significant increase to an already attractive transaction.”

The Cenovus offer represents the highest price any buyer has ever paid for oil sands assets, MEG chief executive Darlene Gates said in a press release. She said the improved terms of the deal “enables MEG shareholders to benefit from greater upside through a significant increase to the proportion of share consideration, while also raising the initial transaction consideration.”

Opinion: MEG Energy bidding war sets the stage for oil patch takeovers

Cenovus is offering $29.50 in cash or 1.240 Cenovus common shares for each MEG share, with a maximum payout of $3.8-billion in cash and 157.7 million Cenovus common shares.

The offer now consists of 50 per cent cash and 50 per cent Cenovus common shares. Previously, Cenovus’s bid was structured as 75 per cent cash and 25 per cent stock.

Strathcona initially launched a hostile takeover for MEG in May. In September, after the company announced a board-approved marriage with Cenovus, Strathcona increased its bid.

The offer is for 0.8 Strathcona shares per MEG share, valuing the company as of the Sept. 8 offer date at roughly $30.86 per share, or approximately $7.85-billion.

Two influential proxy advisory firms – Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. and Glass Lewis & Co. – have both endorsed the Cenovus bid over Strathcona. However, the ISS endorsement was tepid, offering “cautionary support” for a deal it described as “neither compelling nor opportunistic.”

MEG and Cenovus have massive neighbouring oil sand properties in the Christina Lake region of Northern Alberta. Cenovus said combining the two operations will generate operational savings, or synergies, of more than $400-million per year by 2028.

Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened in August to $6.32-billion as exports fell faster in both value and volume than the rise in imports on a monthly basis, official government statistics showed on Tuesday.

The trade deficit in August was led by drop in exports not only to its top trading partner the U.S. but also because its shipments to the rest of the world shrank in the month.

Canada’s international trade numbers took a beating early this year as U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sectoral tariffs on the country, forcing businesses to reorient supply chain from its biggest trading partner. But the shift has been volatile and erratic.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the August trade deficit at $5.55-billion, up from a upwardly revised $3.82-billion in the prior month.

Total exports dropped by 3 per cent while imports increased 0.9 per cent, Statscan said.

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In August, exports to the U.S. were at $44.18-billion, down 3.4 per cent from July, StatsCan said, adding it was primarily led by unwrought gold exports. But even other product categories contributed to the decline including lumber, machinery and equipment.

Canada’s share of exports to the U.S. has been volatile but gradually shrinking. It had fallen below 70 per cent a few months ago before recovering to 73 per cent in August as compared with 75 per cent during the same period last year.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will be meeting with Trump on Tuesday as he comes under pressure to address the impacts of U.S. tariffs on critical sectors such as steel, cars and lumber. But experts have warned against the likelihood of any major deal.

Imports from the U.S. were down 1.4 per cent in August on a monthly basis, shrinking the total trade surplus with its southern neighbor to $6.43-billion from $7.42-billion in July.

Exports to countries other than the United States were down 2 per cent in August, a third consecutive monthly decline, Statscan said. Lower exports of crude oil and nuclear fuel contributed the most to the monthly decrease.

However, its imports from the rest of the world barring the U.S. rose 4.2 per cent, reaching a record in August, Statscan’s data showed, pushing Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the United States to a record high of C$12.8 billion in August from $11.2-billion in July, Statscan said.

Oil prices rose more than 1 per cent on Monday after OPEC+’s planned production increase for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions, though a soft outlook for demand is likely to cap near-term gains.

Brent crude futures climbed nearly US$1, or 1.5 per cent, to US$65.52 a barrel by 09:05 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at US$61.83, up 95 cents US, or about 1.6 per cent.

“The market was expecting a somewhat larger increase from OPEC+ as shown in the structure last week,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad.

“However the modest 137,000 bpd (barrels per day) bloats the already-oversupplied balance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026.”

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers said it would raise production from November by 137,000 bpd, matching October’s figure, amid persistent concern over a looming supply glut.

In the run-up to the meeting, sources said although Russia was advocating for an increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even four times that to quickly regain market share.

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The modest production update also comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern barrels for November loading, PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said.

Saudi Arabia kept unchanged the official selling price for the Arab Light crude it sells to Asia.

While refining sources in Asia surveyed by Reuters had expected a slight increase, those expectations diminished as concerns about rising Middle Eastern crude supply felled the premium to a 22-month low last week.

In the near term, some analysts expect the refinery maintenance season starting soon in the Middle East to also help cap prices.

Rystad’s Shah added that Chinese stockpiling of oil, along with the geopolitical risk premiums and inefficient trade routes and sanctions, were also supporting the benchmarks.

Expectations of weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter are another factor limiting the market’s upside.

U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected in the week ended September 26 as refining activity and demand softened, the Energy Information Administration said last week, with total product supplied – a proxy for demand – falling by 627,000 barrels per day in that week.

“If we see a steadier rise in production then the downside in oil prices may be contained. Much now depends on whether the U.S. economy can reaccelerate over the rest of 2025 and into 2026, which would help demand immensely,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group.

Gold prices touched an all-time high on Monday, soaring above the US$3,900-per-ounce level, as investors flocked to safe-haven bullion amid the U.S. government shutdown, broader economic uncertainty and prospects of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 1.5 per cent at US$3,942.59 per ounce, as of 09:10 GMT, after hitting US$3,949.34 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery climbed 1.5 per cent to US$3,967.10.

Washington will start mass layoffs of federal workers if U.S. President Donald Trump decides negotiations with congressional Democrats to end a partial government shutdown are “absolutely going nowhere,” a senior White House official said on Sunday.

“Appetite for gold remains heavily stimulated by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

“There may be some FOMO buying on the current price but for others there is likely a sense that this particular financial lifeboat has sailed,” said independent analyst Ross Norman.

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Gold has climbed nearly 50 per cent so far this year, underpinned by strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds, a weaker dollar and growing interest from retail investors seeking a hedge amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions.

This rally, characterized by low participation and primarily driven by central banks with a long-term outlook and steady investors rather than speculative buyers, indicates that any pullback might be milder than expected, Norman said, adding that this could present a buying opportunity on dips while the rally maintains its momentum.

Alternative data from both public and private sources indicate signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market amid the government shutdown.

Investors are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed meeting this month, with an additional 25 bp cut anticipated in December.

“We see both fundamental and momentum-based reasons for gold to rally further, and now expect bullion to reach $4,200/oz by the end of this year,” UBS said in a note.

Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and during economic uncertainties.

Spot gold broke the US$3,000-per-ounce level for the first time in March.

Many brokerages have turned bullish on the rally.

Spot silver climbed 1.5 per cent to US$48.68 per ounce, hitting its highest level in more than 14 years. Platinum rose 0.5 per cent to US$1,613.75 and palladium gained 0.7 per cent to US$1,269.06.

Sunday October 5

OPEC+ meeting

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Monday October 6

10 am ET: U.S. global supply chain pressure index

Earnings include: Constellation Brands Inc.

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Tuesday October 7

Prime Minister Carney meets U.S. President Trump in Washington

830 am ET: Canada merchandise trade balance for August. Consensus is for a deficit of $5.7 billion

830 am ET: U.S. goods and services trade balance for August. A $61.0 billion deficit is expected (tentative)

10 am ET: Canada’s Ivey PMI for September

Several Fed members expected to speak throughout the day

Earnings include: McCormick & Co. Inc.

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Wednesday October 8

2 pm ET: FOMC minutes from Sept. 16-17 policy meeting

Several Federal Reserve members scheduled to speak during the day

Earnings include: Trilogy Metals Inc.

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Thursday October 9

8 am ET: Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Rogers speaks in Toronto

830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims for last week (tentative)

830 am ET: Fed Chair Powell gives pre-recorded welcome remarks at the Fed’s Community Bank Conference

Several Fed members expected to speak during the day

Earnings include: Aritzia Inc.; Delta Air Lines Inc.; Louis Vuitton ADR; PepsiCo Inc.; Progressive Corp.; Tilray Inc.

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Friday October 10

830 am ET: Canada employment report for September. Consensus is for a net loss of 2,500 jobs, an improvement from August’s decline of 65,500 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.2% from 7.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to be up 3.2% from a year earlier, a steady reading.

10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October, which is expected to see a modest improvement from last month.

2 pm ET: U.S. budget balance (tentative)

Earnings include: BlackRock Inc.; MTY Food Group Inc.