Author: Consultant

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Friday closed down -0.04 (-0.06%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed down -0.0093 (-0.46%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices settled lower on Friday amid concerns about energy demand after the US Q4 GDP grew at a slower-than-expected pace.  However, losses in crude were limited due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Friday’s weaker-than-expected US economic news was bearish for energy demand and crude prices.  Q4 GDP rose +1.4% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +2.8%.  Also, the Feb S&P manufacturing PMI fell -1.2 to 51.2, weaker than expectations of no change at 52.4.  In addition, the University of Michigan US Feb consumer sentiment index was revised lower by -0.7 to 56.6, weaker than expectations of no change at 57.3.

Crude prices jumped to a 6.5-month high on Thursday amid mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East.  President Trump on Friday ramped up pressure on Iran to strike a deal over its nuclear program, saying he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to force it to accept a deal over its nuclear program.  On Thursday, Mr. Trump said 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue, and “We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them.”  

Axios reported Wednesday that there’s no evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran on a nuclear deal, and any military operation against Iran would likely be a joint US-Israeli campaign that could last for weeks and be much broader in scope than last month’s US operation in Venezuela.  Meanwhile, the US Department of Transportation recently issued a maritime advisory stating that American-flagged ships should stay as far as possible from Iranian waters when navigating the Strait of Hormuz.  Iran is OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, and a US attack on the country could disrupt its 3.3 million bpd of crude production and potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes.  

Wednesday’s US-brokered meeting in Geneva to end the war between Russia and Ukraine ended early as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the war.  Russia has said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted.  The outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war to continue will keep restrictions on Russian crude in place and is bullish for oil prices.

Mounting crude supplies in floating storage are a bearish factor for oil prices.  According to Vortexa data, about 290 million bbl of Russian and Iranian crude are currently in floating storage on tankers, more than 50% higher than a year ago, due to blockades and sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell by -8.2% w/w to 86.95 million bbl in the week ended February 13.

An increase in crude exports from Venezuela is also boosting global oil supplies and is bearish for prices.  Reuters reported last Monday that Venezuelan crude exports rose to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December.

Last Tuesday, the EIA raised its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.60 million bpd from 13.59 million bpd last month, and raised its US 2026 energy consumption estimate to 96.00 (quadrillion btu) from 95.37 last month.  The IEA last month cut its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.7 million bpd from last month’s estimate of 3.815 million bpd.  

On February 1, OPEC+ said it would stick to its plan to pause production increases through Q1 of 2026.  OPEC+ at its November 2025 meeting announced that members would raise production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus.  OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore.  OPEC’s January crude production fell by -230,000 bpd to a 5-month low of 28.83 million bpd.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past six months, limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies.  Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea.  In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Thursday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of February 13 were -6.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +3.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -5.8% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending February 13 rose +0.2% w/w to 13.735 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended February 20 was unchanged at 409, just above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
 

Monday February 23

Japanese markets closed

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for December. The Street is projecting a month-over-month increase of 1.0 per cent.

Earnings include: Dominion Energy Inc., Emera Inc., Oneok Inc., Ovintiv Inc., Whitecap Resources Inc., Winpak Ltd.

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Tuesday February 24

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report Estimate for Feb. 7.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December. Analyst estimate is a rise of 0.3 per cent from November and up 1.2 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for December. Analyst estimate is a rise of 0.3 per cent from November and up 1.8 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale trade for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February.

Also: U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address

Earnings include: Bank of Nova Scotia, Exchange Income Corp., GFL Environmental Holdings Inc., Home Depot Inc., HP Inc.

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Wednesday February 25

Euro zone and Germany’s CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for January.

Also: Canada’s Capital Expenditure Survey for 2026

Earnings include: Bank of Montreal, CCL Industries Inc., Ebay Inc., EQB Inc., Hut 8 Corp., Loblaw Companies Ltd., Lowe’s Companies Inc., National Bank of Canada, Northland Power Inc., Nvidia Corp., Snowline Gold Corp., Stantec Inc., TJX Companies Inc., WSP Global Inc.

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Thursday February 26

Japan’s machine tool orders

Euro zone economic and consumer confidence

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board CEO Confidence Index for Q4.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s current account balance for Q4.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 21.

Also: Alberta’s provincial budget is released.

Earnings include: Atco Ltd., Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Canadian Utilities Ltd., Chartwell Retirement Residences, Dell Technologies Inc., Denison Mines Corp., Gildan Activewear Inc., Pembina Pipeline Corp., Quebecor Inc., Royal Bank of Canada, Salesforce Inc., Stella-Jones Inc., Toronto-Dominion Bank

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Friday February 27

Japan’s retail sales, industrial production and Tokyo’s CPI

ECB’s three-year CPI expectations

Germany’s unemployment, CPI and retail sales

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s Real GDP for Q4. The Street is projecting a decline of 0.4 per cent on an annualized basis.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly Real GDP for December. The consensus is a month-over-month gain of 0.1 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI for January. The Street is expecting a rise of 0.3 per cent from December and up 2.9 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for December.

Also: Ottawa’s Fiscal Monitor for December is expected.

Earnings include: Boralex Inc., Endeavour Silver Corp., Energy Fuels Inc., Laurentian Bank of Canada, TransAlta Corp.

Here’s a straightforward explanation of why George Weston Limited (WN.TO) has been rising over the past ~25 trading days (roughly the last month on the TSX):

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1. Stock Has Been Near Technical Support & Sector Strength

• WN.TO has traded up from lower levels closer to its 52-week low over recent months toward the upper part of its range, which often attracts technical buyers. Historically the stock’s 52-week range is roughly C$72–104 and it has been trading closer to the higher end lately, indicating renewed momentum.
• Canadian consumer staples stocks, including grocery and retail names, have seen moderate sector strength, which tends to lift large staples like Weston. The broader S&P/TSX Consumer Staples Index has been positive over the past month.

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2. Upcoming Earnings Catalyst

• In early **February 2026, George Weston announced that it will release its Q4 2025 and full year results on March 4, 2026. Investors often begin buying ahead of earnings releases in anticipation of a strong print or positive guidance.

This kind of pre-earnings positioning can support share price gains as traders reduce cash before a key news event.

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3. Dividend and Yield Appeal

• Weston declared dividends on both common and preferred shares; even though the yield isn’t exceptionally high, the steady dividend supports demand from income-focused investors. Dividend-support charts on most trading platforms show this as a reason for holding or increasing positions.

Stable dividend policies can make consumer staples stocks attractive when markets are uncertain.

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4. Long-Term Fundamentals and Institutional Support

• Weston controls a major stake in both Loblaw (Canada’s largest grocery/retailer) and Choice Properties (real estate), which provides diversified cash flows that appeal to investors. While there hasn’t been specific new news in the past 25 days, this underlying business mix underpins confidence.
• Some analyst coverage and institutional buying patterns tended to favor staples after broader market volatility, which can help stocks like WN.TO trend up. (General sector/analyst influence explicitly tied to this period is limited in public news feeds.)

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5. Limited Negative News

• There hasn’t been major negative press or earnings misses recently for Weston, while many consumer names have avoided downgrades or headlines that would push the stock down. In contrast, absence of negative catalysts often allows a gradual drift upward alongside broader market flows.

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Summary — Key Reasons for the Recent Price Increase

Price has likely risen due to a combination of:

1. Technical momentum and movement back toward resistance after being nearer support.
2. Positioning ahead of upcoming earnings scheduled in early March.
3. Dividend stability and yield appeal supporting ongoing demand.
4. Broad sector strength in consumer staples helping staples stocks outperform.
5. No recent negative news, allowing upward drift to continue.

Overall: The rise over the past ~25 days reflects technical and anticipatory buying, supported by defensive sector resilience and upcoming earnings visibility — not one single blockbuster catalyst.

BRAMPTON, Ontario, Feb. 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Loblaw Companies Limited (TSX: L) today announced a new collaboration with Google that will offer Canadians a brand new way to shop through conversational AI.

Loblaw will soon allow Canadians to shop for their favourite health, beauty and apparel products directly through AI Mode in Google Search and Google’s Gemini app. Loblaw is the first large retailer to make products available for purchase directly through Google’s AI-mode in Canada, and it is also a glimpse into the future of agentic commerce.

This is another step forward for Loblaw as it seeks to redefine its customer shopping journey by enabling Canadians to connect their AI-led discovery online to the products they crave. From simplifying seasonal shopping to enhancing personal beauty routines, simple chats will help make shopping even faster and easier.

This type of commerce stream is made possible thanks to Google’s conversational AI platforms, as well as through the emergence of a new Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) – an open, standardized way for different commerce systems and AI agents to talk to one another that is coming on stream in Canada. UCP helps to safely and securely facilitate shopping, booking, and payments across different channels.

As part of this collaboration, Loblaw will also scale its use of Google Cloud’s Vertex AI platform. Over the last several years, Loblaw has leveraged Google Cloud across many of its core retail functions, including merchandising, supply chain, the store floor, and beyond. Further scaling the use of this platform will help accelerate its continued transformation into an AI-native enterprise.

“Our purpose is to help Canadians Live Life Well, and this most recent collaboration with Google is a clear demonstration of our commitment to leveraging technology and artificial intelligence to achieve that vision,” said Per Bank, President and CEO, Loblaw Companies Limited. “These integrations are making Loblaw an even better place to shop and work by fostering innovation.”

“We see agentic commerce as a natural evolution of how our customers want to shop. By empowering our colleagues and making shopping simpler and more personalized for customers, we are solidifying our position as a true pioneer in Canadian AI innovation.” said Lauren Steinberg, Chief Digital Officer at Loblaw Companies Limited.

“We are seeing a generational shift where AI is becoming the foundational engine for business transformation. Loblaw’s commitment to scaling AI across its entire enterprise is a clear roadmap for how retailers can convert technical innovation into measurable value. By optimizing everything from merchandising to inventory management, they are proving that AI-native systems are the key to driving both operational efficiency and a superior customer experience at scale.” said Karthik Narain, Chief Product and Business Officer, Google Cloud.

Saputo Inc. says its net earnings came in at $220 million during the third quarter, up from a loss of $518 million during the same period a year earlier.       

The Montreal-based company attributed the swing in profit to the absence of an impairment charge recorded in its U.K. dairy division in the third quarter of last year. 

On a per share basis, Saputo says its earnings amounted to 53 cents, up from a loss of $1.22 during the prior year quarter. 

Saputo’s quarterly revenue came in at $4.89 billion, down from $4.99 billion a year earlier. 

The company attributed the decline in revenue to lower U.S. dairy commodity pricing. 

Saputo CEO Carl Colizza says in a news release that efficiencies from its modernized network drove robust cash generation during the quarter. 

Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. reported its fourth-quarter revenue rose compared with a year earlier as chief executive Greg Hicks says the retailer had one of the best holiday seasons in recent memory.

The retailer says revenue for the quarter totalled $4.55 billion, up from $4.20 billion a year earlier.

The increase came as consolidated comparable sales rose 4.2 per cent, while comparable sales at its namesake Canadian Tire stores gained 2.7 per cent.

SportChek comparable sales rose 9.5 per cent and Mark’s comparable sales added 7.2 per cent.

Canadian Tire says its net income attributable to shareholders from continuing operations amounted $211.0 million or $3.96 per diluted share,  down from $365.2 million or $6.54 per diluted share a year earlier.

On an normalized basis, Canadian Tire says it earned $4.47 per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from $3.24 per diluted share a year earlier.

• The Supreme Court struck down a huge chunk of President Donald Trump’s far-reaching tariff agenda.
• The law that undergirds those import duties “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” the majority ruled six to three.
• Chief Justice John Roberts delivered the opinion of the court. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-ruling.html

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6-3 ruling striking down a significant portion of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. These tariffs were imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, which the Court ruled does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion, joined by Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch, and the Court’s three liberal justices. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

The decision invalidates tariffs enacted under IEEPA, including:

• “Reciprocal” tariffs applied to dozens of trading partners (often described as addressing trade deficits declared a national emergency).
• Tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China (initially tied to a declared emergency over fentanyl and drug trafficking, with rates like 25% on Canada, later increased in some cases to 35%).

This does not affect all tariffs—those imposed under other authorities (e.g., Section 232 for national security or Section 301 for unfair trade practices) remain in place, and the administration may seek to shift or reimpose measures under alternative laws.

Impact on the United States:

• Economic relief for consumers and businesses — These tariffs had raised import costs, contributing to higher prices for goods and inflation pressures. Striking them down could lower costs for American importers, manufacturers reliant on foreign inputs, and consumers. Estimates suggest over $175 billion in collected duties may now face refund claims from importers.
• Broader economic effects — Prior tariffs were projected to generate substantial revenue (hundreds of billions over a decade) but also imposed costs estimated in the trillions long-term due to higher prices and disrupted supply chains. The ruling removes a major source of uncertainty that had spooked markets and businesses.
• Policy setback — This represents a rare rebuke from the conservative-leaning Court to Trump’s executive power expansion on trade, a core part of his economic agenda. It limits unilateral presidential tariff authority under emergency laws, reinforcing Congress’s constitutional role in levying duties.
• Potential next steps — The administration could pivot to other legal bases for tariffs, though those often require more process, justification, or congressional involvement, potentially slowing implementation.

Impact on Canada:

• Significant positive development — Canada faced targeted high tariffs (e.g., 25-35% on various goods) under the fentanyl-related emergency declaration, straining cross-border trade. The ruling eliminates these IEEPA-based duties, easing pressure on Canadian exporters (especially in sectors like autos, energy, steel, and agriculture integrated with U.S. supply chains via the USMCA).
• Trade relationship stabilization — The tariffs had heightened tensions and prompted retaliatory measures or diplomatic friction. Removing them reduces immediate economic harm to Canadian businesses and consumers, potentially lowering costs for goods flowing both ways and supporting jobs in export-dependent industries.
• Broader context — While USMCA provides some baseline protections, the struck-down tariffs went beyond standard frameworks. Canada (along with Mexico) benefits from restored predictability in North American trade, though other U.S. tariffs (if reimposed differently) could still pose risks.

Overall, the ruling curbs aggressive unilateral trade actions, likely benefiting integrated economies like those of the U.S. and Canada by reducing artificial trade barriers and costs in the short term. Markets and businesses may see immediate relief, though long-term trade policy remains fluid as the administration responds.

Mkt Update Issued Feb 12, 2026

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (WPM.TO)

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp is a precious metal streaming company. Its reportable segment includes: Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum, Cobalt, and Other. It generates its revenue from the sale of precious metals (gold, silver and palladium) and cobalt.

6M Daily (Feb 12/26)

Track Gold Prices

Feb 12/26: Gold prices slipped on Thursday as January’s jobs data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady for longer than previously anticipated.

Traders currently assign a 94.1 percent chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to $5,073.59 an ounce while U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $5,093.86.

Data released on Wednesday showed U.S. non-farm payroll employment jumped by 130,000 jobs in January after rising by a downwardly revised 48,000 jobs in December.

The jobless rate dipped from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent, but revised data showed the world’s largest economy generated far fewer jobs in 2024 and 2025 than was initially estimated.

The dollar was slightly lower in European trade ahead of the release of U.S. reports on weekly jobless claims and existing home sales later in the day.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release a report on consumer price inflation that may shed additional light on the outlook for rates.

Analysts warn that a softer CPI print on Friday coupled with the jobs data released on Wednesday could see gold make a foray back below the $5000/oz mark.

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Part 1: The Moat — How Durable Is It?

Kinaxis’s moat rests on four interlocking pillars, each reinforcing the others:

1. Switching Costs (the strongest pillar) Supply chain planning software is deeply embedded in enterprise operations — connected to ERP systems, demand signals, supplier networks, and financial planning. Ripping out Kinaxis means years of re-implementation, retraining, and risk. Large enterprises (aerospace, auto, pharma) do not switch lightly. This creates extremely high churn protection, and Kinaxis has historically maintained strong customer retention rates in its long-term contracts.

2. Patented Concurrent Planning Technology Kinaxis combines its patented concurrency technique with a human-centered approach to AI to empower businesses of all sizes to orchestrate their end-to-end supply chain network, from multi-year strategic planning through execution. Kinaxis No competitor has directly replicated this architecture — it’s the reason Kinaxis can show the real-time impact of any decision across the entire supply chain simultaneously.

3. Brand & Trust in Complex Industries Kinaxis was named the only vendor to achieve the 2024 Gartner Peer Insights Customers’ Choice for Supply Chain Planning Solutions Kinaxis — a peer-validated signal of trust that’s hard to manufacture. Serving brands like ExxonMobil, General Motors, Pfizer, and Colgate-Palmolive creates reference-customer flywheel effects in sales cycles.

4. Agentic AI Momentum (emerging moat layer) Kinaxis launched new generative AI and agentic AI capabilities under Maestro, which were available for subscription to initial customers in the second half of 2025 — with management claiming these further extend their lead over competitors. Business Wire This is important: if Kinaxis can embed AI deeply enough into existing workflows, switching costs compound further.

Moat Rating: Medium-Wide — strong in the installed base, but being tested at the new business frontier where AI-native competitors (o9 especially) are winning deals.

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Moat Risks to Watch

The primary threat isn’t that existing customers leave — it’s that AI-native competitors win new logos at a faster rate, gradually shifting market share over 5–10 years. Key risks:

• Revenue growth slowing: Kinaxis’s revenue growth is expected to slow to ~14% through 2026, while the wider industry is forecast to grow at ~18% per year arXiv — a meaningful gap suggesting some new business headwinds.
• CEO transition risk: Kinaxis has been operating with an interim CEO (Bob Courteau) rather than a permanent one, which introduces execution uncertainty during a critical AI investment cycle.
• AI perception gap: Even if Kinaxis’s AI is technically competitive, being perceived as an “incumbent adding AI” vs. “AI-native” can hurt in competitive sales processes, particularly with tech-forward buyers.

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Part 2: Valuation & Stock Thesis

Current Picture (as of Feb 2026):

KXS is currently trading around C$123.77, with an average analyst 12-month price target of C$212, representing roughly 71% upside potential. The high target is C$245 and the low is C$200. Stanford

From a DCF perspective, KXS is estimated to be trading below fair value — with the stock at ~C$175 vs. an estimated fair value of ~C$283, suggesting it is significantly undervalued on a cash flow basis. However, on a P/E basis, KXS trades at ~102.7x earnings, compared to a peer average of 36.2x and a Canadian software industry average of 49.3x. Oxford Insights

This creates a classic “two stories” valuation tension:

Lens	Signal	Implication
DCF / Cash Flow	Below fair value	Undervalued — buy
P/E Ratio	102x vs. 36x peer avg	Expensive — cautious
Analyst Consensus	71% upside to target	Strong buy signal
Revenue growth vs. peers	14% vs. 18% industry	Mild concern
Rule of 40	Achieved 4 consecutive quarters	Healthy SaaS business

The Bull Case: Kinaxis is a high-quality SaaS business with sticky enterprise customers, improving profitability (25% EBITDA margins), record Q2 2025 new business with growth balanced between new wins and expansions Kinaxis, and a stock that has been meaningfully de-rated from its peaks — creating an attractive entry point if you believe the AI transition succeeds.

The Bear Case: The stock still carries a premium multiple for a business whose growth is decelerating relative to its industry. If AI-native competitors accelerate market share gains in new deals and growth slips further toward ~10%, the premium compression could be painful.

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Bottom Line

KXS is best characterized as a high-quality compounder going through an AI transition — not a high-growth AI pure-play. The moat is real but being stress-tested. The valuation, after a meaningful drawdown from highs, is more compelling than it was, and the analyst community is broadly bullish with a wide consensus around ~C$212–231 targets.

The key question for any investor is simply: does Maestro’s agentic AI close the perception gap with o9 fast enough to reaccelerate new business wins? If yes, the stock has significant upside from current levels. If not, modest multiple compression continues.

What is o9 Solutions?

o9 Solutions is a Dallas-based enterprise software company founded in 2009 that sells a cloud-hosted planning suite branded as the “Digital Brain” for integrated business planning (IBP), demand and supply planning, supply chain analytics, and revenue growth management. Amazonaws

It was co-founded by Sanjiv Sidhu (previously founder of i2 Technologies, an early supply chain pioneer) and Chakri Gottemukkala, who is the current CEO.

How It Works — The “Digital Brain”

The platform is built around two core technical differentiators:

Enterprise Knowledge Graph (EKG): An in-memory “Graph-Cube” store that models business entities and hierarchies, fed by batch ETL and real-time APIs. Amazonaws Think of it as a living map of your entire business — products, suppliers, customers, factories — all connected and queryable in real time.

AI/ML Layer: The platform is augmented with specialized AI agents, self-learning models, and self-service innovation tools that enable faster, smarter decision-making across planning horizons and business domains. Lightcast

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Scale & Traction

As of 2025, o9 services some of the largest companies in the world, including Walmart, Nike, Estée Lauder, Starbucks, Nestlé, Google, Sony, Samsung, Caterpillar, and Bridgestone. Stanford HAI

ARR grew 37% year-over-year in 2024, and o9 reported 60% growth in new client acquisition in Q1 2025. Stanford HAI They completed more than 30 go-lives worldwide in 2025 alone. IEEE Spectrum

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Financials & Ownership (Private Company)

o9 was bootstrapped for over a decade before taking its first external investment from KKR in 2020 at a $1 billion valuation. Later, General Atlantic, KKR, and Generation Investment Management invested at a $2.7 billion valuation, and the most recent round valued o9 at $3.7 billion. Stanford HAI Total funding raised is ~$536M. The company remains private.

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Why It Matters to Kinaxis

o9 is arguably Kinaxis’s most dangerous competitive threat right now because:

1. It’s winning new logos at 60% growth — faster than Kinaxis
2. It was named a Leader in the 2025 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning Solutions Oxford Insights — the same quadrant Kinaxis has dominated for 11 years
3. o9 is actively positioning itself to capture SAP APO customers migrating away from that legacy platform, which SAP plans to sunset in 2027 Stanford HAI — a massive replacement cycle that both o9 and Kinaxis are competing for

In short, o9 is the AI-native challenger most likely to put pressure on Kinaxis’s new business pipeline over the next 3–5 years.