Author: Consultant

  • TD Bank hit with asset cap on U.S. retail banking division after anti-money laundering failures

    Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD-T +0.61%increase retail banking growth in the United States will be constrained by an asset cap, adding to TD’s financialpenalties from U.S. regulators and law enforcement for anti-money laundering failures, executives were told on a conference call Wednesday evening.

    TD has already set aside $4-billion to cover financial penalties from three different regulators and the U.S. Department of Justice, but investors have been bracing for details of non-financial penalties that could limit how quickly the bank can keep growing in the United States.

    At 7 p.m. on Wednesday, TD held a call with senior executives to say details had been finalized, and they include growth limitations on its U.S. retail banking business, according to someone familiar with the conversation.

    The Globe and Mail is not identifying the source because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

    The limitation comes in the form of an asset cap, preventing TD from expanding its balance sheet by adding new loans, for instance, because loans are considered assets. However, the asset cap will apply to the U.S. retail banking division, meaning other units, such as TD Securities, will still be able to expand their own balance sheets and lend to large corporate clients.

    TD has been hampered by the money-laundering scandal since early 2023, when the bank disclosed it may not get regulatory approval for a proposed US$13.4-billion takeover of First Horizon Corp. Over the year and a half since, the bank killed the takeover because it could not get regulators’ blessings; set aside the $4-billion to cover expected financial penalties; and named a new chief executive officer.

    In September, TD named Raymond Chun, a relatively unknown insider, as its next CEO. Mr. Chun will become chief operating officer effective Nov. 1 and then take over at the bank’s next annual general meeting in April. Mr. Chun is currently the head of Canadian personal banking, which is TD’s most profitable division.

    TD Bank’s dirty laundry

    On top of pulling Canada’s second-largest financial institution out of its U.S. regulatory crisis, Mr. Chun will have to restore morale because TD has also suffered from a cultural erosion that stifled financial performance, The Globe and Mail reported in August. Inside the bank, conservatism took hold and dense layers of bureaucracy hindered decision-making. Frustration over this, coupled with a U.S. regulatory crisis that kept snowballing, contributed to a number of respected leaders leaving the bank.

    When financial institutions fall into the crosshairs of law enforcement, asset caps are typically reserved for the most severe cases. In the U.S., the asset cap imposed on Wells Fargo & Co. in 2018, which limited its balance sheet to US$1.95-trillion in assets, is often held up as one of the more extreme examples.

    Beyond the growth limitations, asset caps can be difficult for banks because there often are no specific end dates, and lenders have to apply to regulators to get them lifted. Six years on at Wells Fargo, the bank is still limited by its own cap.

    On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that TD’s $4-billion in total fines (US$3-billion) will be split between multiple bodies. The Justice Department will receive around US$1.8-billion and FinCEN will get US$1.3-billion.

    In a statement in September, Bharat Masrani, TD’s outgoing CEO, addressed the anti-money-laundering woes that have plagued the bank. “The anti-money laundering challenges we face took place on my watch as CEO and I take full responsibility,” he said in a statement.

    “In the coming months, I will continue to advance and direct the critical remediation program required to meet our obligations and responsibilities and strengthen our risk and control foundation.”

    TD declined to comment for this story.

  • Oil Prices Tumble 4% as Demand Fears Override Middle East Risk

    Oil prices slumped by more than 4% early on Tuesday as traders have yet to see an actual supply disruption in the Middle East while focusing on China’s underwhelming demand again.

    Both benchmarks, WTI Crude and Brent Crude, were down by about 3% as of 9:30 a.m. EDT on Tuesday. The U.S. benchmark fell below $75 per barrel, and the Brent price was down to the $78 a barrel handle, after breaking above $80 on Monday in an 11% total gain in oil prices since Iran fired missiles on Israel a week ago.

    The war premium has started to evaporate, especially after the recent rally and the return of business in China after the Golden Week holiday.

    As China returned from the holiday, the authorities said they were confident that growth in the world’s second-largest economy would hit their forecasts this year. The officials, however, refrained from unveiling additional measures to prop up the economy and oil demand, which disappointed traders and speculators.

    “China’s National Development and Reforms Commission (NDRC) failed to announce any new supportive measures. Without policy support, an economic slowdown could keep China’s oil demand subdued in the short to medium term,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Tuesday.

    The return of Libya’s oil production and exports after more than a month of hiatus due to the political stalemate has also weighed on the prices.

    “Oil can keep ascending only for so long purely based on perceptions and not actual supply disruption,” oil brokerage PMV said in a Tuesday note.

    “The geopolitical risk premium has an obscure and unforeseeable expiry date. When that point arrives and is not replaced by genuine and supportive fundamental factors, in the case of the Middle East conflict by a palpable supply shortage, the move higher will not be sustainable.”

    By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

  • Enbridge Inc. to Host Webcast to Discuss 2024 Third Quarter Results on November 1

    CALGARY, AB, Oct. 4, 2024 /CNW/ – Enbridge Inc. (TSX: ENB) (NYSE: ENB) (Enbridge or the Company) will host a conference call and webcast to provide a business update and review 2024 third quarter results on November 1, 2024, at 7 a.m. MT (9 a.m. ET).

    Read more at newswire.ca

  • Economic Calendar: Oct 7 – Oct 11

    Monday October 7

    China markets closed

    Euro zone retail sales

    Germany factory orders

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for September.

    (3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for August.

    Tuesday October 8

    China aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

    Japan real cash earnings, household spending and current account surplus

    Germany industrial production

    (6 p.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for September.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for August.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for August.

    Earnings include: PepsiCo Inc.

    Wednesday October 9

    Japan machine tool orders

    Germany trade surplus

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for August.

    (2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed minutes from Sept. 17-18 meeting are released.

    Thursday October 10

    Japan bank lending

    Germany retail sales

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Oct. 5. Estimate is 235,000, up 10,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for September. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.1 per cent from August and up 2.3 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Aritzia Inc.; Delta Air Lines Inc.; Domino’s Pizza Inc.; Progressive Corp.; Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

    Friday October 11

    Germany CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for September. The Street expects a gain of 0.2 per cent, or 31,500 jobs, from August with the unemployment rate rising 0.1 per cent to 6.7 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for August. Estimate is a month-over-month decline of 10.0 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI Final Demand for September. Consensus is a rise of 0.1 per cent from August and up 1.8 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for October (preliminary reading).

    (10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations for Q3 is released.

    Earnings include: Bank of New York Mellon; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Wells Fargo & Co.

  • BRP slashes yearly forecast as it faces softer consumer demand, heightened competition

    BRP Inc.DOO-T -0.83%decreaseDOO-T -0.83%decrease has deeply slashed its profit forecast for the year as the Canadian maker of Ski-Doo snowmobiles and Can-Am off-road vehicles grapples with softer consumer demand and heightened competition.

    Its shares fell 4.5 per cent to $85.30 in Friday trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

    Valcourt, Que.-based BRP reported net income of $7.2-million or 9 cents a share for its second quarter ended July 31. On an adjusted basis and not including restructuring costs, it generated normalized diluted earnings of $0.61 a share compared with the $0.35 analysts had predicted. Revenue came in at $1.84-billion, in step with the $1.88-billion analysts expected.

    But the company cut its earnings guidance for the full year by 54 per cent, saying it now expects earnings per share to come in between $2.75 and $3.25. That’s down from a previous forecast of $6 to $7. The manufacturer also lowered its revenue forecast for the year to between $7.8-billion and $8-billion, down from $8.6-billion to $8.9-billion.

    “Our results were in line with expectations and reflect our ongoing focus on reducing network inventory to maintain our dealer value proposition. We have made great strides on that front, but the retail environment is more challenging with the economic context pressuring consumer demand,” BRP chief executive José Boisjoli said in a statement. “As such, our priority is to continue to proactively manage production and inventory levels, which leads us to revise our year-end guidance.”

    Investor sentiment on BRP was quite bearish heading into the results release, with most expecting a guidance cut, Desjardins analyst Benoît Poirier said in a research note. But he said the magnitude of the cut is “significantly worse than expected.”

    The revision represents a stunning turn of events in a short period of time. A year ago, expectations for BRP’s earnings per share for fiscal 2025 were about $14. Now they’re barely a quarter of that amount.

    “Unfortunately, this extreme volatility could spook investors, resulting in lower valuation multiples,” Stifel analyst Martin Landry said in a note Friday. BRP has had to boost its promotional activity in the face of softer demand and to compete with the discounts rivals are offering, he said.

    Powersports vehicles are considered to be highly discretionary and are often the first thing that gets cut when consumers are watching their spending or lose their jobs. As a result, dealers are offering sweeter deals to stoke sales and get inventory out the door.

    Sales as measured in individual vehicles fell by high single-digits during the last quarter in North America. BRP’s unit sales were down 18 per cent, suggesting it lost market share.

    “We believe that difficult industry conditions could be present next year as well as it may take time for consumer demand to return and for the excess inventory to clear,” Mr. Landry said.

    In the United States, the biggest market for powersports vehicles, consumers reported higher optimism and a greater willingness to spend in the third quarter as confidence in their household finances grew, according to McKinsey & Co.’s latest sentiment survey. But the consultancy warned emerging economic indicators could dampen this newfound optimism.

    “The next few months may be turbulent,” McKinsey’s ConsumerWise team said in a report published late last month. “Market uncertainty, the upcoming US general election, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts may test US consumers’ faith in the economy.”

    BRP is controlled by Bombardier Inc.’s founding family and Bain Capital, which together held roughly 56 per cent of the total voting power as of April this year. Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec is also a major shareholder.

  • U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected in September

    U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in September, further evidence that labour market conditions were not deteriorating.

    Private payrolls increased by 143,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 103,000 in August, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday.

    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing by 120,000 positions after a previously reported gain of 99,000 in August.

    The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of Friday’s more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for September from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    There is not much correlation between the ADP and BLS employment report. Initial ADP prints have mostly understated private payroll growth this year.

    Government data on Tuesday showed the labour market continues to hum along, with 1.13 job openings for every unemployed person in August compared to 1.08 in July. Sluggish hiring against the backdrop of an immigration-driven surge in labour supply is behind the labour market slowdown.

    The Federal Reserve last month cut its benchmark interest rate by an unusually large 50 basis points to the 4.75 per cent-5.00 per cent range, the first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020, in a nod to rising concerns over the labour market’s health.

    The U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates again in November and December.

    Private payrolls likely increased by 125,000 in September after rising by 118,000 in August, a Reuters survey of economists showed. With solid gains in government employment expected, nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have increased by 140,000 last month after advancing by 142,000 in August The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 4.2 per cent. It has increased from 3.4 per cent in April 2023.

  • Oct 2, 2024 – At the open: Energy stocks push TSX higher as oil prices jump with escalating conflict in the Middle East

    Canada’s main stock index opened higher on Wednesday, tracking the heavyweight energy sector as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher.

    At 9:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 35.97 points, or 0.15%, at 24,069.96.

    Wall Street’s main indexes started lower on Wednesday as investors priced in a possible escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while a survey allayed concerns about a rapid cooldown in the labor market.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 31.8 points, or 0.08%, at the open to 42,125.14. The S&P 500 fell 10.6 points, or 0.19%, at the open to 5,698.14, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 43.2 points, or 0.24%, to 17,867.124 at the opening bell.

    While Israel is not a major producer of oil, Iran is OPEC’s third largest producer and the potential for a wider, sustained conflict raises the risk of disruptions to supplies by neighboring producers of crude. However, some analysts have been skeptical that the U.S. would experience massive oil shortages, since U.S. oil production is at an all-time high.

    Early Wednesday, U.S. crude was up $2.11, or 3%, to $71.94 per barrel. Brent crude climbed $1.96 to $75.52 per barrel.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, which he said “made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.” An Iranian commander threatened wider strikes on infrastructure if Israel retaliates.

    Nike shares tumbled 7.3% in early trading after the shoe giant posted lackluster first-quarter results, including sales that came in lower than Wall Street was expecting. Nike, which is in the middle of a CEO transition, also pulled its full-year guidance and postponed its investors day conference. Its shares are down about 22% this year.

    Shares of Humana shed close to 22% early Wednesday after the health insurer said a Medicare Advantage quality rating drop will hurt future bonus payments the company receives.

    On Monday, the S&P 500 set an all-time high for the 43rd time this year. Stocks had been jumping on hopes the U.S. economy can continue to grow despite a slowdown in the job market, as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to give it more juice. The Fed last month lowered its main interest rate for the first time in more than four years, and it’s indicated it will deliver more cuts through next year.

    The dominant question hanging over Wall Street is whether the cuts will ultimately prove to be too little, too late after the Fed earlier kept rates at a two-decade high in hopes of braking on the economy enough to stamp out high inflation.

    Another threat to the economy could lie in a strike by dockworkers at 36 ports across the eastern United States that could snarl supply chains and drive up inflation.

    The workers are asking for a labor contract that doesn’t allow automation to take their jobs, among other things. Supply chain experts say consumers won’t see an immediate impact because most retailers have stocked up on goods, moving ahead shipments of holiday gift items.

    A debate Tuesday night between vice presidential candidates Democratic Gov. of Minnesota Tim Walz and Republican senator JD Vance drew scant market attention, analysts said.

    “The market’s muted reaction says it all — traders are far more focused on pressing economic concerns and geopolitical risks than on the vice presidential showdown,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

    In Europe at midday, Germany’s DAX rose 0.7% and the FTSE 100 in London ticked up 0.1%. In Paris, the CAC 40 picked up 0.2%.

    Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.2% to 37,808.76. It has retreated since the ruling Liberal Democratic Party chose Shigeru Ishiba to lead the government, replacing Fumio Kishida, who stepped aside on Tuesday. Higher energy prices in Japan, which relies heavily on imported oil, gas and coal to power its industries, would add to Ishiba’s burdens as he works to pep up the economy.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng roared 6.2% higher to 22,443.73, riding a wave of investor enthusiasm over recent moves by Beijing to rev up the Chinese economy with policies aimed at reviving the ailing property sector and supporting financial markets. With Shanghai and other markets in China closed, trading crowded into Hong Kong.

    Reuters and The Associated Press

  • Economic Calendar: Sept 30 – Oct 4, 2024

    Monday September 30

    China PMI and current account surplus

    Japan industrial production and retail sales

    Canada’s National Day for Truth and Reconciliation (stock markets open; bond markets closed)

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago PMI for September.

    (1:55 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell gives luncheon address at NABE conference.

    Earnings include: Carnival Corp.

    Tuesday October 1

    China’s markets closed (through Friday)

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    Japan jobless rate and manufacturing PMI

    Euro zone CPI and manufacturing PMI

    (9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for August. The Street is projecting a month-over-month rise of 0.1 per cent.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for August..

    Also: Canadian and U.S. auto sales for September.

    Earnings include: Nike Corp.; Paychex Inc.

    Wednesday October 2

    Euro zone jobless rate

    (8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for September.

    Also: OPEC JMMC meeting

    Earnings include: NovaGold Resources Inc.; Tilray Inc.

    Thursday October 3

    Japan services and composite PMI and consumer confidence

    Euro zone services and composite PMI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 27. Estimate is 220,000, up 2,000 from the previous week.

    (9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for September.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for September.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for September.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for August. Consensus is a month-over-month rise of 0.1 per cent.

    Earnings include: Constellation Brands Inc.; Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

    Friday October 4

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September. The Street is expecting a rise of 130,000 jobs from August with the unemployment rate remaining 4.2 per cent and average hourly earnings up 0.3 per cent (and 3.8 per cent year-over-year).

    (10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for September.