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Despite the truce in the Middle East, crude oil posted gains on Friday in the wake of the US confirming readiness to sign trade deals with China and multiple other trading partners and indications of strong summer demand in the US.

WTI Crude Oil closed up by $0.28 to settle at $65.52 per barrel today.

August month Brent Crude was last seen trading up $0.18, to $67.91 per barrel today.

Oil prices initially surged on Monday after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites last weekend but plummeted after the US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire.

The anxiety about a long-lasting Middle Eastern conflict between Israel and Iran, which could have triggered a major supply crisis, has now faded due to the truce, which has been holding so far with no reports of violations by either side.

During the 12-day war, much of the risk-premium associated with oil which drove it to record high prices was due to the threat of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. As much as 20% of global oil transit takes place through this strait.

As that threat has disappeared, investors are focused on pricing based on demand-supply fundamentals. As of now, globally supply is more than the demand.

A report from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday revealed that crude and oil inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels last week. Along with this, the high demand foreseen in the US due to the summer travel season also contributed to today’s earlier price rise.

Oil and energy traders are now focused on the upcoming July 6th meeting of OPEC+, where another hike in production by 411,000 bpd is likely to be approved.

The organization is keen on grabbing market share as production in North America and South America is increasing. Reports suggest that Russia, a key member, may agree to ramp up production.

Gold fell sharply on Friday, slipping to a nearly one-month low as investors move to riskier assets amid a backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions.

Front Month Comex Gold for July plunged $60.20 (or 1.8%) to $3,273.70 per troy ounce today. Gold lost around 2.9% this week.

Front Month Comex Silver for July fell 55.40 cents (or 1.5%) today to $36.037 per troy ounce.

In a significant trade development today, the world’s two major economic partners, the US and China, made further progress on the trade agreement announced by the countries last month in Geneva. Specifically, China has agreed to deliver much-needed rare earth minerals to the US.

A White House official said the US and China have agreed to “an additional understanding of a framework to implement the Geneva agreement.”

A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce subsequently said the two sides have “confirmed the details of the framework.”

The spokesperson said Washington would lift “restrictive measures,” while Beijing would “review and approve” items under export controls.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg that 10 other deals with multiple other countries are coming up, suggesting a shift from the previous rigid stance on trade policies.

This news brought cheers to investors across the world, triggering a rally in the US financial markets and leading to a slump by gold.

On the data front, according to the numbers released by the US Commerce Department, consumer spending that accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity edged down 0.1% last month to $21.441 trillion, suggesting the dent on consumer’s appetite brought on by tariffs.

The Commerce Department also said personal income fell by 0.4 percent in May after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in April.

Additionally, the report said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inched up by 0.1 percent in May, matching the uptick seen in April as well as economist estimates.

The annual rate of growth by the PCE price index accelerated to 2.3 percent in May from 2.2 percent in April, which also matched expectations.

Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2 percent in May after inching up by 0.1 percent in April. Economists had expected another 0.1 percent uptick.

The annual rate of growth by the core PCE price index also accelerated to 2.7 percent in May from an upwardly revised 2.6 percent in April.

Economists had expected annual rate of growth by the core PCE price index to tick up to 2.6 percent from the 2.5 percent originally reported for the previous month.

Following today’s inflation data, all eyes are on the Fed’s decision on interest rates in the coming weeks.

Interest rates have been kept unchanged by the Fed 4.25% to 4.50% since December. High interest makes gold less favorable.

Canada’s annual inflation rate in May was unchanged from the previous month at 1.7 per cent as drop in gasoline costs continued to keep the overall index stable while prices of shelter, food and transportation also cooled, data showed on Tuesday.

There are concerns that a raft of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and automobiles exported to the U.S. from Canada and subsequent counter-measures from Canada would increase prices across the board.

Those fears have not been reflected in the headline consumer price index as a tax removal on gasoline prices from April is expected keep the cost at the pump down for a year.

Lower interest rates have also consistently eased mortgage costs and lower demand has forced rents to come down for the last several months.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected annual inflation in May to be at 1.7 per cent and monthly inflation at 0.5 per cent.

StatsCan said inflation in May on a monthly basis was at 0.6 per cent, largely led by a seasonal increase in travel, accommodation and energy costs.

Gasoline prices decelerated by 15.5 per cent in May after falling by 18.1 per cent in April on an annual basis, the statistics agency said.

The cost of shelter component of the CPI, which has a biggest weight at 30 per cent in the overall basket, grew by 3 per cent in May, down from 3.4 per cent in April, as both mortgage interest costs and rents eased last month.

The Bank of Canada closely-tracks core measures of inflation – CPI-trim and CPI-median – and both of them eased to 3 per cent, which is the upper band of the central bank’s 1 per cent to 3 per cent inflation target range.

CPI-median is the centermost component of the CPI basket when arranged in an order of increasing prices and CPI-trim, excludes the most extreme price changes.

The May inflation data is a critical number which will feed into BoC’s rates decision on July 30. It will also get the June inflation data before its next rates decision.

If inflation continue to be low, it could tilt the bank towards a rate cut.

After cutting rates aggressively and consistently for nine months since June last year by 225 basis points to 2.75 per cent, it has paused its rate reduction cycle at its last two meetings especially due to the uncertainty hanging around tariffs.

Money markets are betting around 63 per cent chance of yet another hold by the central bank of its policy rate at 2.75 per cent on July 30, when it also releases its monetary policy report.

OTTAWA — Statistics Canada says retail sales rose 0.3 per cent to $70.1 billion in April, helped by gains in sales at new and used car dealers.

However, the agency says its preliminary figures for May point to a drop of 1.1 per cent for that month.

For April, six of nine subsectors were up as sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers gained 1.9 per cent, boosted by a 2.9 per cent increase at new car dealer and a 2.1 per cent rise at used car dealers.

Sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers rose 1.0 per cent, while furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers gained 0.8 per cent. Sales at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers fell 2.2 per cent.

Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, gained 0.1 per cent in April.

In volume terms, overall retail sales rose 0.5 per cent in April.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 20, 2025.

The Canadian Press

Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday announced a series of measures to protect the Canadian steel and aluminum industries from the impacts of recently doubled U.S. tariffs, including steep anti-dumping quotas for foreign products that may be diverted to Canada.

Carney said the federal government will also introduce new rules on June 30 to ensure Canadian steel and aluminum and tariff-free products from “reliable trading partners” are prioritized for federal procurement.

As well, the government will ensure the auto industry and other supply chains are given the chance to prioritize domestic materials through remission processes that will be reviewed in the coming days.

“The steel and aluminum workers are on the front lines of this trade crisis,” Carney told reporters.

“In short, the government is responding to the impact of the unjust U.S. tariffs with multiple tools.”

Ottawa unveils steel and aluminum measures to counter U.S. tariffs

Grocery retailer Empire Co. Ltd. EMP-A-T +7.76%increase beat analysts’ estimates for profit growth in the fourth quarter, reporting that its store chains such as FreshCo and Sobeys took market share from competitors.

The Stellarton, N.S.-based company reported on Thursday that sales grew in both the company’s FreshCo discount stores, as well as its full-service grocery stores such as Sobeys, Safeway and IGA. Same-store sales – an important industry metric that tracks sales growth not tied to new store openings – were up 3 per cent in the quarter ended May 3, compared to the same period last year.

Empire reported net earnings grew to $173-million or 74 cents per share in the fourth quarter, compared to $149-million or 61 cents per share the prior year. That exceeded analysts’ expectations of $164.5-million or 71 cents per share, according to the consensus estimate from S&P Capital IQ

The company also announced a 10-per-cent increase in its quarterly dividend paid to shareholders.

Fourth-quarter sales grew to $7.6-billion, up 3 per cent compared to the prior year, driven by strong performance at grocery stores, partly offset by lower sales at the company’s gas stations as fuel prices fell.

The expansion of the Farm Boy and FreshCo store chains contributed to profit growth, as did initiatives aimed at reducing “shrink,” an industry term for products that are lost before they can be sold – such as through theft or spoilage.

This time last year, Empire made the decision to pull back on the pace of expansion of its Voilà e-commerce service, saying the market for online groceries in Canada was smaller than expected. After ending its exclusive partnership with technology provider Ocado Group PLC earlier than planned, Empire launched partnerships with third-party delivery companies Instacart and Uber Eats, which have contributed to growth. Online sales rose by 80.2 per cent in the quarter.

The company continues to cut costs in its online service as it seeks to reach profitability. Construction of a fourth e-commerce distribution centre, underway in Vancouver, remains on hold, and will resume “once e-commerce penetration rates in Canada increase,” according to a press release issued on Thursday.

Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, extending a 4 per cent gain from the previous session on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies.

Brent crude futures rose 26 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to US$76.71 a barrel by 0440 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to US$75.19 per barrel.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” as the Iran-Israel air war entered a sixth day.

The U.S. military is deploying more fighter aircraft to the region to bolster its forces, three officials said on Tuesday.

Analysts said the market was largely worried about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

Iran is OPEC’s third-largest producer extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, but spare capacity among producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies can readily cover this.

“Material disruption to Iran’s production or export infrastructure would add more upward pressure to prices. However, even in the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost, they could be replaced by spare capacity from OPEC+ producers … around 5.7 million barrels a day,” said Fitch analysts in a client note.

Brent crude oil prices have gained about US$10 a barrel over the past two weeks, and Fitch analysts said they expect the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to be contained at around US$5 to US$10.

In another sign of the market’s jitters, Brent crude’s premium to Middle East benchmark Dubai soared above US$3 a barrel on Wednesday, market sources said, hitting its highest since late September 2023 according to LSEG data.

Markets are also looking ahead to a second day of U.S. Federal Reserve discussions on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25 per cent-4.50 per cent range.

However, the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of slowing global growth could push the Fed to potentially cut rates by 25 basis points in July, sooner than the current market expectation of September, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst with IG.

“The situation in the Middle East could become a catalyst for the Fed to sound more dovish, as it did following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack,” Sycamore said.

Lower interest rates generally boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Confounding the decision for the Fed, however, is that the Middle East conflict also creates a new source of inflation via surging oil prices.

Crude oil futures rose about 3% Tuesday, after President Donald Trump demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and threatened its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The U.S. crude oil contract for July delivery increased $2.07, or 2.88%, to $73.84 per barrel by 1:11 p.m. ET, while global benchmark Brent for August rose $2.18, or 2.98%, to $75.41.

Trump threatened Khamenei as “an easy target,” warning Iran’s leader that U.S. “patience is wearing thin.” The president then called for Iran’s unconditional surrender on his social media platform Truth Social.

“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” Trump said in a social media post. “He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”

Oil prices had closed lower Monday on reports that Iran was seeking a ceasefire with Israel, but those hopes faded as the conflict went on for a fifth day with Trump taking a harder line against Iran. Trump left the Group of Seven summit in Canada early and demanded that everyone evacuate Iran’s capital city.

“Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON,” the president said in a social media post late Monday. “I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was looking for “a real end” to the conflict, “not a ceasefire” agreement. The president said he was “not too much in the mood to negotiate” with Iran. Trump said there was no specific threat that led to his call for people in Tehran to evacuate.

Markets mostly calm

The impact of the conflict on the oil futures market has been modest so far, with prices rising about 8% since Israel launched its air campaign against Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs on Friday.

The oil market has been relatively calm in the face of the conflict because the world is well supplied with crude, said Amos Hochstein, former President Joe Biden’s senior energy advisor. OPEC+ is increasing supply to the market and U.S. production remains at record levels, Hochstein said.

Oil traders initially feared that Israel might strike Iran’s oil infrastructure in an effort to cripple the Islamic Republic’s economy. Israel has hit domestic energy facilities in Iran but has spared installations that export to the global market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/oil-prices-iran-israel-conflict.html

Monday June 9

China foreign reserves, aggregate yuan financing, new yuan financing, trade surplus, CPI and PPI

Japan GDP and bank lending

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for April.

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Tuesday June 10

Japan machine tool orders

U.K. employment

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for May.

Earnings include: GameStop Corp.; JM Smucker Co.; North West Co. Inc.

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Wednesday June 11

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for April. Estimate is a month-over-month rise of 1.5 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for May. The Street is expecting an increase of 0.2 per cent and up 2.5 per cent year-over-year.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for May.

Earnings include: Andrew Peller Ltd.; Chewy Inc.; Dollarama Inc.; Oracle Corp.; Roots Corp.

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Thursday June 12

U.K. GDP, industrial and manufacturing production and trade deficit

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s National Balance Sheet and Financial Flow Accounts report for Q1.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of June 7. Estimate is 242,000, up 2,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI for May. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent from April and up 3.2 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Quarterly Services Survey for Q1.

(12 p.m. ET) U.S. flow of funds for Q1.

Earnings include: Adobe Systems Inc.; Kroger Co.

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Friday June 13

Japan industrial production

Euro zone industrial production and trade surplus

Germany CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s capacity utilization for Q1.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. manufacturing sales and new orders for April. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 2.0 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for April. Estimate is a decline of 0.9 per cent from the previous month.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for April. Estimate is a year-over-year jump of 10.5 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June.