Category: Uncategorized

  • June 29: Canadian stocks decline even as Wall Street rallies and Dow reaches record high. Strategists struggle to explain why

    U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Monday, with the Dow hitting a record closing high, as ⁠weekend hostilities ​between the United States and Iran eased and as major technology-related shares rose following recent selling.

    The TSX, however, ended lower in a relatively broad decline. Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management, said it wasn’t clear why Canadian and U.S. markets diverged, but that it may have to do with the shortened week in Canada and the U.S., with traders “closing out some positions.”

    He said the moves in the market appeared to be driven by sentiment, “but where that sentiment is coming from is the real challenge.”

    The S&P/TSX Composite index ended down 156.18 points, ​or 0.5%, at 34,823.82.

    Just two of the 10 major sectors ended higher, including heavily weighted financials, which added 0.3%.

    The price ​of oil settled 2.2% higher at US$70.75 a barrel after attacks by the U.S. and Iran underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal, while cautious hopes of a continued recovery in energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ⁠limited gains. Even with the higher crude price, the TSX energy sector ended with slight losses.

    The materials group, which includes metal mining shares, fell 1.1%. The price of gold was down 1.8%, moving toward the bottom of its ⁠range since November. Consumer discretionary fell 1%, with shares of apparel retailer ​Aritzia Inc down 2.9%, while consumer staples ended 1.7% lower.

    The U.S. and Iran on June 17 signed a memorandum ‌of understanding aimed at ending the conflict. Under the document, both sides agreed to cease hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

    “The fact that we had hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend really didn’t have a negative effect on the market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “The ‌market is ​looking forward and preparing for ‌earnings season, which is not that far away,” he said.

    Most S&P 500 companies are set to ​begin reporting second-quarter results after mid-July. Communications services led gains among ⁠S&P 500 sectors.

    Shares of Comcast rose 4.5% after the media and cable provider said ⁠it plans to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies through a tax-free spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky.

    SpaceX jumped 7.2% ​after Nasdaq said the newly listed company will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7. Google parent Alphabet closed up 4.8% as it kicked off its first day as a Dow component.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 306.63 points, or 0.59%, to 52,182.74, the S&P 500 gained 86.41 points, or 1.18%, to 7,440.43 and the ⁠Nasdaq Composite gained 522.53 points, or 2.07%, to 25,820.14.

    Concerns about AI spending had hit shares of artificial intelligence-related companies recently, including semiconductors and many of the Magnificent Seven group of megacap stocks. On Monday, the information technology index gained 1.7%. RBC Capital Markets cited earnings strength and a supportive macro ⁠backdrop as it raised its 12-month target for the ​S&P 500 index to 8,150 from 7,900.

    Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.54-to-1 ratio on the New York Stock Exchange. There were 272 new highs ‌and 114 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 3,017 stocks rose and 1,919 fell as advancing issues outnumbered ​decliners by a 1.57-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded no new highs and no new lows.

    Volume on U.S. exchanges was 20.15 billion shares, compared with the 23.50 billion average for the full session over ​the last 20 trading days.

    Reuters, The Canadian Press, Globe staff

  • Gulf countries strongly condemn Iran’s drone attack on Bahrain as rising tensions threaten MOU

    Several Gulf countries have strongly denounced Iran’s Saturday drone strikes on the island nation of Bahrain, while vowing to stand united against any possible aggression from Tehran in the future.

    This escalation poses the greatest threat yet to the memorandum of understanding signed last week by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

    After Iran struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, the U.S. launched overnight airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone and radar sites. Iran responded Saturday with the drone strikes on Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/gulf-countries-strongly-condemn-irans-drone-attack-bahrain-rising-tensions-threaten-mou

  • Things To Look Out For: June 29 – July 3, 2026.

    Executive Summary

    • Highest-impact TSX driver: Middle East / Strait of Hormuz risk. Oil sensitivity affects TSX Energy, inflation expectations, CAD, and rate-cut odds. U.S. strikes on Iran followed an Iranian drone attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude risk elevated.
    • Main economic event: U.S. June payrolls on Thursday, July 2. A strong jobs print would pressure rate-sensitive TSX sectors; a weak print would support bonds, utilities, REITs, and gold.
    • Canada data: Canada April GDP is due Tuesday, June 30. This matters for banks, consumer discretionary, industrials, and BoC rate expectations.
    • Liquidity risk: TSX is closed Wednesday, July 1 for Canada Day, while U.S. markets are closed Friday, July 3 for Independence Day observed. Expect lower volume and sharper moves around data/geopolitical headlines.
    • Trade risk remains a background drag: U.S.–Canada tariff uncertainty continues to affect autos, industrials, materials, and exporters. RBC calls the trade shock a “slow leak,” not a single-day shock.

    Key Drivers for TSX — Week Ending July 3, 2026

    DateFactorTSX Impact ChannelSectors Most Exposed
    Mon–FriMiddle East / Strait of HormuzOil up = TSX Energy support; oil spike = inflation/rate riskEnergy, pipelines, airlines, consumer
    Tue, Jun 30Canada April GDPWeak GDP = BoC cut expectations; strong GDP = less rate reliefBanks, REITs, consumer, industrials
    Tue, Jun 30U.S. consumer confidence / housingU.S. demand signal for cyclicalsIndustrials, materials, discretionary
    Wed, Jul 1TSX closed, Canada DayNo Canadian trading; risk can gap into ThursdayAll sectors
    Wed, Jul 1U.S. ADP, ISM ManufacturingManufacturing strength supports cyclicals but may lift yieldsMaterials, industrials, tech
    Thu, Jul 2U.S. nonfarm payrollsStrong jobs = higher yields; weak jobs = defensive/rate-cut bidBanks, REITs, utilities, gold
    Fri, Jul 3U.S. markets closedLower liquidity; TSX open but U.S. price discovery limitedAll sectors

    What to Watch by Market Driver

    1. Oil and Middle East risk

    Bullish for TSX Energy: If WTI/Brent rises on renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption, Canadian energy names and pipelines may outperform.

    Bearish for broader TSX: A sharp oil spike also lifts inflation risk, pressures consumers, and can push yields higher. That hurts REITs, utilities, consumer discretionary, and rate-sensitive growth stocks.

    WTI was reported around US$69–70 after-hours following the U.S. retaliatory strike, with Brent near US$72–73. The issue is not just price level; it is volatility and shipping risk.

    2. U.S. payrolls — Thursday, July 2

    This is the week’s cleanest macro catalyst.

    Payroll OutcomeLikely Market ReadTSX Bias
    Strong jobs / sticky wagesFed stays tighter for longerNegative for REITs, utilities, gold; mixed for banks
    Soft jobs, not recessionaryRate-cut expectations risePositive for REITs, utilities, gold, quality growth
    Very weak jobsRecession concernDefensive bid; cyclicals and banks under pressure

    Consensus cited by Kiplinger was about 100,000 jobs and unemployment around 4.3% for June.

    3. Canada GDP — Tuesday, June 30

    Canada April GDP matters because the TSX has heavy exposure to banks, consumers, industrials, and housing-linked sectors.

    GDP ResultRead-Through
    Above expectationsSupports banks/cyclicals; may reduce urgency for BoC cuts
    Below expectationsSupports rate-cut narrative; negative for domestic growth stocks
    Weak GDP + high oilWorst mix: stagflation risk

    S&P Global recently described Canada as “resilient, not strong,” noting the economy stalled in Q1 2026 with real GDP down 0.1% annualized after a 1.0% annualized contraction in Q4 2025.

    4. U.S.–Canada trade and tariff risk

    Watch for headlines on autos, steel, aluminum, copper, lumber, and CUSMA/USMCA positioning. This is most relevant to:

    Sector / GroupRisk
    Autos / partsMG.TO, LNR.TO, suppliers exposed to U.S. demand and tariffs
    MaterialsSteel, aluminum, copper, lumber exposure
    IndustrialsExport demand, margins, supply-chain costs
    ConsumerHigher import costs, weaker household confidence

    CFIB notes that CUSMA-compliant goods remain exempt from some tariffs, but steel, aluminum, copper, some auto parts, lumber, and wood products remain exposed under other U.S. rules.

    5. Gold, CAD, and rates

    Gold should be watched as both a geopolitical hedge and a real-rate trade.

    SignalTSX Read
    Gold up + yields downPositive for TSX gold miners
    Gold up + oil up + yields upInflation shock; miners may rise but broader TSX weakens
    CAD strengthensHelps foreign investor confidence but can pressure exporters
    CAD weakensSupports exporters/energy translation, but may signal risk-off

    Scenarios for the Week

    ScenarioConditionsLikely TSX Movement
    BullOil stable, U.S. payrolls soft but not recessionary, Canada GDP decentTSX grinds higher; REITs/utilities/gold improve; banks stable
    BaseMixed data, oil volatile but no Strait closureChoppy/range-bound TSX; sector rotation dominates index level
    BearIran/Hormuz escalation + strong U.S. payrolls or inflation scareEnergy may outperform, but broad TSX sells off on yield/inflation risk

    What Would Disprove the Base Case

    • WTI breaks sharply higher on verified shipping disruption through Hormuz.
    • U.S. payrolls are much stronger than expected, pushing yields higher.
    • Canada GDP materially disappoints, increasing recession concern.
    • Trade headlines hit autos, metals, lumber, or broader CUSMA-sensitive exporters.
    • Gold fails to rise despite geopolitical stress, suggesting real yields/USD are dominating safe-haven demand.

    Actionable Takeaways

    • Watch oil first, then U.S. payrolls, then Canada GDP.
    • Expect lower-liquidity trading because of the Canada Day and U.S. Independence Day observed closures.
    • Energy strength may not mean the whole TSX is healthy; it could reflect geopolitical risk.
    • A soft U.S. jobs report is supportive only if it does not look recessionary.
    • Best risk barometer: oil + yields + CAD + gold moving together. If oil and yields rise while CAD weakens, TSX risk increases.
  • Economic Calendar: June 29 -July 3

    Monday June 29

    China industrial profits and Japan retail sales for May

    Euro area economic confidence survey

    Earnings include: Tecsys Inc.


    Tuesday June 30

    China purchasing manager surveys for June. Japan employment and industrial production data for May

    Germany employment and inflation data. France inflation and consumer spending data. Italy inflation data and UK GDP data

    830 am ET: Canada monthly real GDP for April. Consensus is for a rise of 0.4%

    9 am ET: U.S. house price indexes

    10 am ET: U.S. job openings & labour turnover survey

    10 am ET: U.S. conference board consumer confidence index

    Earnings include: Constellation Brands Inc.; Nike Inc.


    Wednesday July 1

    Japan manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence data

    Euro area inflation data for June and manufacturing PMIs

    Canadian markets closed for Canada Day

    USMCA trade pact review day

    815 am ET: U.S. ADP national employment report for June

    9 am ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Fed Chair Warsh join a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

    945 am ET: U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for June

    10 am ET: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June

    10 am ET: U.S. construction spending for May

    Earnings include: General Mills Inc.


    Thursday July 2

    Euro area employment data

    930 am ET: Canada S&P global manufacturing PMI for June

    830 am ET: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June. Consensus is for job gains of 115,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Initial weekly jobless gains also to be released.

    10 am ET: U.S. factory orders for May.

    Canada auto sales for June

    Earnings include: Levi Strauss & Co.


    Friday July 3

    China and Japan services PMIs

    Euro area services PMI; France industrial and manufacturing data; Italy retail sales

    U.S. markets closed for Independence Day

  • Gold & Gold Stocks:

    Summary

    • Gold fell over the past ~10 days: about US$4,338.86/oz on Jun. 16 → US$4,087.01/oz on Jun. 26 = -US$251.85 / -5.8%.
    • Main driver: stronger U.S. dollar + higher Fed rate-hike expectations.
    • Gold briefly fell below US$4,000/oz on Jun. 24 as hawkish Fed signals pressured non-yielding assets.
    • It rebounded on Jun. 25–26 after U.S. inflation data softened the dollar and yields, but still finished the week down about 3% and marked a fourth straight weekly decline.
    • Bottom line: short-term gold trend was negative, with a late bounce that has not yet reversed the downtrend.

    Price Action

    Date / PointGold PriceMove
    Jun. 16~US$4,338.86/ozRally on lower rate-hike fears
    Jun. 23~US$4,131.24/ozFell as USD hit one-year high
    Jun. 24Below US$4,000/oz intradayHawkish Fed pressure
    Jun. 26US$4,087.01/ozRebound, but still weak

    Why Gold Fell

    1. U.S. dollar strengthened

    Gold is priced in USD. When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Reuters said the dollar hit a one-year high on Jun. 23, which pressured gold.

    2. Fed rate-hike expectations rose

    Gold pays no yield. When markets expect higher rates, bonds and cash become more competitive. Reuters noted that hawkish Fed signals increased rate-hike expectations and hurt gold.

    3. Middle East risk premium faded

    Earlier, gold was supported by U.S.-Iran uncertainty. But peace-deal optimism lowered oil prices and reduced inflation fears. That reduced gold’s safe-haven bid.

    4. Late rebound was dollar/yield driven

    Gold rose on Jun. 25–26 because U.S. inflation data pushed the dollar and Treasury yields lower. But the bounce was not enough to erase the weekly loss.

    Key Levels

    LevelMeaning
    US$4,000Psychological support
    US$4,087Jun. 26 level
    US$4,130–4,150Near-term resistance
    US$4,338Recent 10-day high area

    Scenarios

    ScenarioTriggerGold implication
    BullUSD weakens, yields fall, Fed hike odds declineReclaim US$4,150–4,250
    BaseMixed inflation/rate signalsRange US$4,000–4,150
    BearDollar strengthens, Fed stays hawkishBreak below US$4,000

    Actionable Takeaways

    Gold’s 10-day move was mainly a rates-and-dollar selloff, not a collapse in long-term gold demand. The key signal is US$4,000/oz: holding above it keeps gold range-bound; breaking below it confirms more downside pressure.

  • Information Tech Capped Index ($TTTK):

    Summary

    • TTTK fell over the past 10 trading sessions: 307.50 on Jun. 15 → 296.55 on Jun. 26 = -10.95 points / -3.6%.
    • Weakness was concentrated on Jun. 16–18, especially Jun. 18: -2.51%.
    • The index rebounded on Jun. 24: +3.26%, but gave back part of that move on Jun. 25: -1.31%.
    • Driver: tech volatility + valuation pressure, not a broad TSX collapse.
    • TTTK remains well below its 52-week high of 372.44, with current level around 296.55.

    10-Day Price Action

    DateCloseDaily Move
    Jun. 15307.50+1.21%
    Jun. 16303.45-1.32%
    Jun. 17299.67-1.25%
    Jun. 18292.16-2.51%
    Jun. 19293.05+0.30%
    Jun. 22291.43-0.55%
    Jun. 23290.38-0.36%
    Jun. 24299.85+3.26%
    Jun. 25295.92-1.31%
    Jun. 26296.55+0.21%

    Source: Investing.com historical data.

    Why It Moved

    1. Tech sold off mid-period

    TTTK dropped from 307.50 to 292.16 between Jun. 15 and Jun. 18, a -5.0% move. That was the main damage. The sector was hit by risk-off trading and pressure on growth/tech names.

    2. Broader TSX volatility added pressure

    Reuters reported TSX weakness around Jun. 23 was driven partly by a technology selloff on Wall Street and lower commodity prices. That hurt sentiment toward Canadian tech as well.

    3. Jun. 24 rebound was a technical bounce

    TTTK rose +3.26% on Jun. 24, recovering part of the previous decline. But the next day it fell -1.31%, so the bounce was not a clean breakout.

    4. Valuation remains a constraint

    The iShares XIT ETF, which tracks the same benchmark, showed a P/E ratio of 43.96 and P/B ratio of 6.17 as of Jun. 25. That means the sector is still priced for growth, making it sensitive to earnings expectations, rates, and AI/tech sentiment.

    Valuation Logic

    FactorImpact
    High P/ENegative when risk appetite weakens
    AI/tech sentimentSupports long-term interest
    Short-term volatilityNegative
    Jun. 24 reboundSupportive, but not confirmed
    Still below 52-week highShows sector has not fully recovered

    Key Levels

    LevelMeaning
    290Recent support zone
    300Near-term resistance
    307–308Previous 10-day high area
    372.4452-week high

    Scenarios

    ScenarioTriggerTTTK implication
    BullBreaks back above 300–308Momentum improves
    BaseHolds 290–300Range-bound
    BearBreaks below 290Further downside risk

    Actionable Takeaways

    TTTK’s past 10-day move was a tech-sector pullback, not a collapse. The index fell mainly from Jun. 16–18, bounced on Jun. 24, then stalled below 300. The key signal is whether it can reclaim 300–308; failure keeps it range-bound or vulnerable.

  • George Weston Limited (WN.TO)

    Summary

    • WN.TO was basically flat over the last 10 trading sessions: C$104.83 on Jun. 10 → C$104.46 on Jun. 26 = -C$0.37 / -0.4%.
    • It dipped to C$100.68 on Jun. 22, then rebounded +2.23% on Jun. 23 and +1.81% on Jun. 24.
    • Main driver: defensive staples rotation, helped by Loblaw exposure.
    • Company fundamentals were supportive: Q1 adjusted diluted EPS rose 5.8% YoY to C$0.91, and NAV/share rose 1.8% to C$117.93.
    • Upside is capped by valuation: Google Finance showed P/E ~39x and price close to the 52-week high of C$106.17.

    10-Day Price Action

    DateCloseDaily Move
    Jun. 10C$104.83+0.28%
    Jun. 11C$105.00+0.16%
    Jun. 12C$104.01-0.94%
    Jun. 15C$102.90-1.07%
    Jun. 18C$103.34-0.04%
    Jun. 19C$101.34-1.94%
    Jun. 22C$100.68-0.65%
    Jun. 23C$102.93+2.23%
    Jun. 24C$104.79+1.81%
    Jun. 25C$104.01-0.74%
    Jun. 26C$104.46+0.43%

    Source: Investing.com historical data.

    Why It Moved

    1. Holding-company value tied to Loblaw

    George Weston is mainly a holding company for Loblaw and Choice Properties. Loblaw is the key driver. In Q1, Loblaw revenue rose 4.2%, food same-store sales rose 2.4%, and drug same-store sales rose 4.1%.

    2. Defensive rebound after Jun. 22

    The stock fell from C$105.00 on Jun. 11 to C$100.68 on Jun. 22, then recovered to C$104.79 by Jun. 24. That looks like mean reversion + staples rotation, not a new company-specific catalyst.

    3. Buybacks and dividend support

    George Weston repurchased 2.9M shares for C$275M in Q1 and raised its dividend 8.0%, its 15th consecutive annual increase.

    4. Valuation limited the move

    At about 39x earnings and near the C$106.17 52-week high, the stock had limited room for multiple expansion without stronger earnings growth.

    Valuation Logic

    FactorImpact
    Loblaw earnings stabilityPositive
    Choice Properties recurring cash flowPositive
    Share buybacksPositive for EPS/share
    Dividend increaseSupportive
    P/E near 39xLimits upside
    Near 52-week highProfit-taking risk

    Scenarios

    ScenarioTriggerPrice implication
    BullBreaks above C$106.17New high / momentum continues
    BaseDefensive bid holds, valuation caps upsideRange C$102–106
    BearProfit-taking or Loblaw weaknessPullback toward C$100–101

    Actionable Takeaways

    WN.TO’s 10-day move was flat overall, with a mid-period dip and defensive rebound. The stock is supported by Loblaw earnings, buybacks, and dividend growth, but upside is constrained by a high multiple and proximity to its 52-week high.

  • Loblaw Co (L.TO):

    Summary

    • L.TO rose slightly over the past 10 trading sessions: C$64.59 on Jun. 15 → C$65.93 on Jun. 26 = +C$1.34 / +2.1%.
    • The move was not smooth: it fell to C$63.38 on Jun. 22, then rebounded strongly on Jun. 23–24.
    • Main driver: defensive rotation into staples, helped by Loblaw’s stable grocery/pharmacy earnings profile.
    • Q1 fundamentals support the stock: revenue +4.2%, Food same-store sales +2.4%, Drug same-store sales +4.1%, adjusted EPS +10.6%.
    • Upside is limited by valuation: Yahoo showed P/E ~29x and a 52-week range of C$52.92–C$69.59.

    10-Day Price Action

    DateCloseDaily Move
    Jun. 15C$64.59-0.63%
    Jun. 16C$64.88+0.45%
    Jun. 17C$64.69-0.29%
    Jun. 18C$64.76+0.11%
    Jun. 19C$64.09-1.03%
    Jun. 22C$63.38-1.11%
    Jun. 23C$64.77+2.19%
    Jun. 24C$66.20+2.21%
    Jun. 25C$66.09-0.17%
    Jun. 26C$65.93-0.24%

    Source: Investing.com historical data.

    Why It Moved

    1. Defensive rotation

    Loblaw benefited when money moved into consumer staples during broader TSX volatility. On Jun. 24, the TSX hit a 13-day low as oil and gold fell, pressuring energy and materials. Staples were relatively attractive because grocery and pharmacy earnings are less cyclical.

    2. Fundamentals are steady

    Loblaw’s Q1 numbers were strong enough to support the stock:

    MetricQ1 2026Impact
    Retail revenueC$14.484B, +4.2%Positive
    Food same-store sales+2.4%Stable
    Drug same-store sales+4.1%Positive
    E-commerce sales+20.3%Positive
    Retail adjusted EBITDAC$1.607B, +6.5%Positive
    Adjusted EPSC$0.52, +10.6%Positive
    Dividend+10%Supportive

    Source: Loblaw Q1 release.

    3. Rebound after weakness

    The stock dropped from C$65.00 on Jun. 12 to C$63.38 on Jun. 22, then recovered to C$66.20 by Jun. 24. That looks like a short-term mean-reversion bounce, not a new earnings event.

    Valuation Logic

    FactorImpact
    Defensive grocery/pharmacy earningsSupports premium valuation
    Same-store sales positiveSupports trend
    Buybacks and dividend growthSupports EPS/share
    P/E near 29xLimits upside
    Close to 52-week highProfit-taking risk

    Scenarios

    ScenarioTriggerPrice implication
    BullHolds above C$66 and staples rotation continuesRetest C$68–70
    BaseStable earnings, valuation caps upsideRange C$64–67
    BearProfit-taking or weak consumer dataPullback toward C$63–64

    Actionable Takeaways

    L.TO’s 10-day move was a modest defensive-sector rebound. The stock recovered after a dip because Loblaw has stable grocery/pharmacy earnings, positive same-store sales, buybacks, and dividend growth. The main constraint is valuation: at roughly 29x earnings, further upside needs continued earnings growth, not just defensive rotation.

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD.TO)

    Couche-Tard reports US$863.4M in Q4 profit, up year-over-year from US$439.4M

    – Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.’s net earnings attributable to shareholders came in at US$863.4 million during the fourth quarter, up from US$439.4 million during the same period last year. 

    That amounted to diluted net earnings per share of 94 cents US during the fourth quarter, up from 46 cents US during the prior year quarter.   

    The Laval, Que.-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says its total revenue came in at US$19.5 billion, rising year-over-year from US$16.27 billion. 

    The company says higher average fuel selling prices helped to increase revenue during the period. 

    Couche-Tard says its total merchandise and service revenue came in at US$4.5 billion, rising 7.7 per cent from US$4.19 billion. 

    Couche-Tard CEO Alex Miller says the company’s strategy, which it unveiled in February, is driving strong momentum across its U.S. business.   

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 22, 2026.  

    Summary

    • ATD.TO rose sharply over the past 10 trading days: C$84.24 on Jun. 15 → C$93.43 on Jun. 26 = +C$9.19 / +10.9%.
    • The move was almost entirely from Jun. 23, when the stock jumped +11.68% after Q4/FY2026 results.
    • Main driver: earnings beat + strong fuel margins + better adjusted EPS.
    • Q4 adjusted diluted EPS rose 58.7% YoY to US$0.73.
    • After the spike, the stock stalled near C$93–94, suggesting profit-taking near the new high.

    10-Day Price Action

    DateCloseDaily Move
    Jun. 15C$84.24-0.08%
    Jun. 16C$83.46-0.93%
    Jun. 17C$83.62+0.19%
    Jun. 18C$82.44-1.41%
    Jun. 19C$82.37-0.08%
    Jun. 22C$82.26-0.13%
    Jun. 23C$91.87+11.68%
    Jun. 24C$93.76+2.06%
    Jun. 25C$93.57-0.20%
    Jun. 26C$93.43-0.15%

    Source: Investing.com historical data.

    Why It Moved

    1. Earnings surprise

    Couche-Tard reported Q4 fiscal 2026 net earnings of US$863.4M, or US$0.94/share, versus US$439.4M, or US$0.46/share, last year. Adjusted EPS was US$0.73, up 58.7% YoY.

    2. Fuel margins were strong

    Q4 road transportation fuel gross profit rose US$418.5M YoY. U.S. fuel margin increased 9.17¢/gallon to 52.44¢/gallon; Canada fuel margin increased 3.23¢/litre to CA17.28¢/litre.

    3. Merchandise growth was positive, but not perfect

    Merchandise and service revenue rose US$321.7M YoY. U.S. merchandise margin improved, but Canada merchandise margin fell to 33.5%, pressured by product mix and competition.

    4. The stock paused after the spike

    After +11.68% on Jun. 23 and +2.06% on Jun. 24, ATD slipped slightly on Jun. 25 and Jun. 26. That is normal profit-taking after a large earnings gap.

    Valuation Logic

    FactorImpact
    EPS beatPositive
    Strong fuel marginsPositive
    Merchandise growthPositive
    Canadian merchandise margin pressureNegative
    Fast 2-day price jumpRaises pullback risk
    Near C$95.15 highUpside now needs confirmation

    The key technical area is C$95.15, the recent high from Jun. 24. Failure to break above it keeps the stock in a consolidation zone.

    Scenarios

    ScenarioTriggerPrice implication
    BullHolds above C$93 and breaks C$95.15Momentum continues
    BaseEarnings rerating holds, but no new catalystRange C$91–95
    BearProfit-taking after earnings gapPullback toward C$87–90

    Actionable Takeaways

    ATD.TO’s 10-day move was earnings-driven. The stock jumped because Q4 profit, adjusted EPS, and fuel margins were much stronger than expected. The main risk now is not fundamentals; it is post-earnings profit-taking after a fast rerating