Category: Uncategorized

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T -4.72%decrease
picked up more business from domestic clients and kept loan losses in check to continue the sector’s streak of third quarter profits that beat analysts’ expectations.

On Thursday, CIBC reported it earned $2.41-billion in the third quarter, or $2.47 per share, up 15 per cent from the same period in 2025.

The Toronto-based bank’s adjusted earnings were $2.65-billion or $2.73 per share. Analysts had forecast the bank would post adjusted earnings of $2.50-per share, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

“We continue to accelerate the execution of our strategy, driving another quarter of strong financial results including double-digit growth in net income and a higher return on equity compared to a year ago,” said Harry Culham, CIBC’s chief executive officer, in a press release.

“CIBC continued the trend of better-than-expected results, with each of its operating segments contributing to the beat,” said analyst John Aiken at Jefferies Financial Group in a report.

“While loan growth and efficiency gains were positive, the market’s reaction may be tempered by the reserve release and margin contraction in the U.S. segment,” said Mr. Aiken.

CIBC’s return on equity, a key measure of the bank’s financial performance, rose to 16.8 per cent, up from 14.2 per cent in the same period a year ago.

CIBC agrees to pay $10-million to settle class action over non-sufficient funds fees

CIBC highlighted the integration of artificial intelligence into its operations, rolling out a workspace system called CAI 2.0 that allows employees to delegate work to AI-driven agents.

“We’re investing in key enablers including artificial intelligence to empower our team, as we continue to modernize our bank, drive efficiency and sharpen our focus on our clients,” said Mr. Culham. In a conference call with analysts, Mr. Culham said the bank expects to continue expanding its workforce as it increases the use of AI, rather than replacing staff with technology, while making its employees more productive.

CIBC’s domestic growth strategy includes bulking up a wealth management platform that targets the mass affluent segment of the population. Rob Sedran, CIBC’s chief financial officer, said in a conference call the bank’s target is to double the size of this business, which has $360-billion of assets under management, over the next five years. This year, Mr. Sedran said the business is growing at a 10-per-cent clip.

Earlier this week, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada reported financial results that exceeded expectations. Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank also release their quarterly performance on Thursday.

CIBC posted revenue growth in all of its lines of business units, including a 9 per cent increase in revenue at its Canadian personal and business division, the bank’s largest business. The division had adjusted earnings of $1.7-billion, up 18 per cent compared to last year.

The bank’s U.S. commercial and wealth management division earned US$277-million on an adjusted basis, up 10 per cent from the same period in 2025.

CIBC’s capital markets business had a strong quarter, continuing a trend seen at other domestic banks. Adjusted earnings were $977-million, up 24 per cent from the third quarter of 2025.

CIBC set aside $564-million for problem loans, in line with the $559-million provision for credit losses in the same period last year and down 7 per cent from the previous quarter.

CIBC is the latest domestic bank to report better-than-expected results against a backdrop of economic uncertainty due to Canada’s trade dispute with the U.S. On Tuesday, executives at Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia said consumers and businesses are adjusting well to a challenging global trade environment.

Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T -0.51%decrease reported higher third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as the lender reins in expenses and plans to open new retail branches in the United States, where it is fixing gaps in its anti-money laundering processes.

Canada’s second-largest lender posted stronger than expected results across its businesses. TD’s net income rose 38 per cent to $4.62-billion, or $2.74 per share, in the three months that ended July 31.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, the bank said it earned $2.77 per share, edging out the $2.47 per share analysts expected, according to data by S&P Capital IQ.

“With a focus on disciplined execution, [return on equity] was up significantly and we generated positive operating leverage while continuing to invest in front-line talent, AI and innovation to deepen client relationships and grow the bank,” TD chief executive officer Raymond Chun said in a statement.

Investor alleges $4.5-million in losses owing to fraudulent trades in TD investing accounts

The bank said it intends to open 100 new branches in the U.S. by the end of 2028, pending regulatory approval.

TD’s chief financial officer Kelvin Tran said the new sites will be located in the bank’s existing footprint along the country’s east coast.

“Our focus is driving organic growth, and building new branches to acquire new customers is part of that strategy,” Mr. Tran said in an interview.

U.S. regulators and law enforcement levied a cap on assets of US$434-billion that limits TD’s ability to grow its retail operations in the country. To continue growing the business and create space under the asset cap, the lender shrunk its U.S. balance sheet by exiting less profitable portfolios.

TD has previously said it expects expense growth to land in the mid-single-digit range this year.

TD tells some employees it will use software to monitor their work in an effort to increase productivity

“It speaks volume about the effectiveness of our structural cost reduction program, so as those savings come through, and on top of that, moderation of some governance and control costs, that gives us room to reinvest in the business,” Mr. Tran said.

“Whether that is reinvesting in new branches or reinvesting in frontline talent, or in our technology, those are very important for us as we look to grow the U.S. business over time.”

TD is the final major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal third quarter. Earlier in the week, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada released results that beat analysts’ estimates. On Thursday, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Royal Bank of Canada also post earnings that topped analysts’ expectations.

In the quarter, TD set aside $917-million in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may default. That was lower than analysts anticipated, and included $865-million against loans that the bank believes may not be repaid, based on models that use economic forecasting to predict future losses.

Total revenue rose 10 per cent in the quarter to $16.89-billion, while expenses fell slightly by 1 per cent to $8.48-billion.

The bank is betting on its Canadian division and streamlining its businesses to drive its growth strategy

Canadian personal and commercial banking profit was $2.1-billion, up 7 per cent from a year earlier, as revenue was driven by deposit and loan volume growth

Profit from the bank’s U.S. arm was up 41 per cent at $1.07-billion, as loans grew in middle market commercial lending and credit cards.

Capital markets profit climbed 87 per cent to $743-million on higher revenue and lower provisions. The wealth management and insurance division generated $841-million in profit, up 20 per cent.

Royal Bank of Canada RY-T -2.79%decrease reported higher third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as the lender booked stronger performance across capital markets, commercial banking and wealth management.

RBC’s profit rose 11 per cent to $6-billion, or $4.23 per share, in the three months that ended July 31.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, including HSBC Canada transaction and integration costs, the bank said it earned $4.28 per share, topping the $4.07 per share analysts expected, according to data by S&P Capital IQ.

“Our third quarter earnings showcase the strength of our diversified business and our robust balance sheet,” RBC chief executive officer Dave McKay said in a statement. “In a faster-moving, more complex economy, we remain focused on building the bank to meet clients wherever they need us, with the capabilities, advice and insights to help them succeed.”

RBC hires ex-Ontario minister Caroline Mulroney as vice-chair

RBC is aiming to boost its profitability. During fourth-quarter earnings in December, the bank raised its return on equity (ROE) target to 17 per cent or more after exceeding the 16-per-cent goal the bank set at its investor day last year.

In the quarter, the bank posted adjusted ROE of 18.1 per cent.

RBC is the fifth major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal third quarter. Earlier in the week, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada released results that beat analysts’ estimates. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Toronto-Dominion Bank also post earnings on Thursday.

In the quarter, RBC set aside $1-billion in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may default. That was lower than analysts anticipated, and included $979-million against loans that the bank believes may not be repaid, based on models that use economic forecasting to predict future losses.

Total revenue rose 9 per cent in the quarter to $18.54-billion. Expenses increased 6 per cent to $9.79-billion, which the bank said was driven by higher performance-based compensation, salary and staff-related costs.

RBC bets on growth in Europe as businesses diversify trade

RBC is expanding its capital markets business in Europe in a bid to break out from its position as the 13th-largest capital-markets business globally and climb into the top ten list, which is dominated by U.S. banks.

Capital markets profit increased 16 per cent to $1.54-billion on higher equity and debt origination and mergers and acquisitions activity, as well as higher equity trading

Profit from personal banking was $1.92-billion, down 1 per cent from the same quarter last year, as higher net interest income was offset by an uptick in expenses driven by staff and technology costs, operating costs and provisions.

Commercial banking earned $936-million, up 12 per cent from a year earlier, driven by higher net interest income and lower provisions. Loan balances grew 4 per cent and deposits rose 9 per cent year over year.

The wealth management division generated $1.44-billion of profit, up 32 per cent on higher fee-based client assets. Profit from insurance was down 20 per cent at $197-million.

NA.TO (National Bank of Canada) is down roughly 4–5%+ intraday on August 26, 2026 (trading in the low $210s after a prior close near $222.53), despite beating Q3 earnings estimates.

Key Q3 results (ended July 31, 2026)

• Net income: $1.307 billion (+23% YoY); diluted EPS $3.25 (+26%).
• Adjusted net income: $1.362 billion; adjusted diluted EPS $3.39 (beat consensus of ~$3.16–$3.22).
• Revenue: $4.05 billion (+18% YoY; beat estimates of ~$3.87 billion).
• Strong segment growth: Capital markets net income +32% to $442 million; wealth management +21% to $296 million; personal & commercial +14% to ~$370–421 million.
• Dividend declared at $1.32 per share (unchanged).

Why the drop?

Investors are focusing on higher provisions for credit losses (PCLs) of $246 million (vs. $203 million a year earlier and slightly above some analyst expectations around $237 million). This comes amid ongoing US-Canada trade tensions/tariffs and broader geopolitical uncertainty, even as the bank described credit performance as resilient overall and noted positive operating leverage.

The stock had already pulled back in recent sessions from highs near $237 earlier in the summer. Broader TSX pressure (index opened slightly lower) from trade-war concerns also weighed on financials. Canadian bank stocks had run up strongly YTD on expectations of solid profits, so any PCL uptick or caution can trigger profit-taking after a beat.

Bottom line: Solid operational beat driven by capital markets and wealth, but elevated PCLs and macro trade risks are driving the sell-off. Watch the earnings call and peer results (RY, TD, CM reporting soon) for more color on credit outlook.

National Bank of Canada NA-T -5.80%decrease posted higher third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ expectations as the lender booked stronger performance across personal banking, capital markets and wealth management.

National Bank’s net income climbed 23 per cent to $1.31-billion, or $3.25 per share, in the three months that ended July 31.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, including costs related to the acquisition of Canadian Western Bank and transactions with Laurentian Bank of Canada, the bank said it earned $3.39 per share, beating the $3.21 per share analysts expected, according to data by S&P Capital IQ.

“We delivered strong earnings and revenue growth, as well as a high return on equity, continuing the momentum achieved since the beginning of the year,” National Bank chief executive officer Laurent Ferreira said in a statement.

“Despite trade and geopolitical uncertainty, Canada’s resilience and the retooling of its economy are creating opportunities for growth.

National Bank is the third major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal third quarter. Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia posted better-than-expected results on Tuesday. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will wrap up the week with earnings releases on Thursday.

Canadian bank stocks surged this year, outperforming Canada’s stock market and U.S. lenders. Investors have been eager for third-quarter results to help determine whether bank shares’ rich valuations have peaked.

In the quarter, National Bank set aside $246-million in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may default. That was higher than analysts anticipated and less than the $203-million reserved in the same quarter last year.

Total revenue rose 18 per cent in the quarter to $4.05-billion while expenses increased 9 per cent to $2.09-billion, which the bank said was driven by higher variable compensation and litigation costs.

Profit from personal and commercial banking was $421-million, up 14 per cent from a year earlier, as personal lending grew 13 per cent and commercial lending rose 4 per cent.

Capital markets profit jumped 32 per cent to $442-million, driven by higher revenue across global markets and corporate and investment banking.

National Bank generates more of its profit from capital markets compared to its peers, benefitting from higher trade and deal activity. Capital markets profit jumped 32 per cent to $442-million, driven by higher revenue across global markets and corporate and investment banking.

“Overall, this was another strong quarter for [National Bank], supported by broad-based operating performance and continued strength in its market-sensitive businesses, particularly equity trading,” Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland said in a note to clients.

The lender is conducting a strategic review of its personal and commercial business, where it is underearning compared to the other big banks. Profit from personal and commercial banking was $421-million, up 14 per cent from a year earlier, as personal lending grew 13 per cent and commercial lending rose 4 per cent.

The wealth management division generated $296-million of profit, up 21 per cent on higher fee-based revenues.

Bank of Montreal BMO-T -0.20%decrease reported lower third-quarter profit but beat analysts’ estimates on stronger-than-expected performance across its businesses as the lender seeks to boost its profitability.

The lender has been streamlining its operations and rejigging its balance sheet as part of its strategy to boost its profitability, particularly in its U.S. unit.

BMO’s net income fell 25 per cent from the same quarter last year to $1.75-billion, or $2.38 per share, in the three months that ended July 31. The bank’s reported net income was weighed down by certain items, including a charge related to the announced sale of BMO’s transportation and vendor finance business.

Adjusted to exclude those items, the lender said net income rose 19 per cent to $2.86-billion in the quarter. On an adjusted basis, BMO said it earned $3.96per share. That edged out the $3.75 per share analysts expected, according to data by Bloomberg.

“In U.S. banking, we’ve now made the transition from optimization to an inflection point where we can drive an acceleration in profitable growth,” BMO chief executive officer Darryl White said during a conference call with analysts.

BMO also announced a plan to buy back 25-million of its common share. The bank maintained its quarterly dividend at $1.71 per share.

In March, BMO revealed its new strategy to revamp its U.S. business and improve its return on equity – a closely watched measure of profitability. In 2024, BMO set a goal of improving its ROE to 15 per cent by the end of 2027.

In the third quarter, BMO posted adjusted ROE of 14 per cent, up from 12 per cent in the same quarter last year.

The U.S. division – which makes up 40 per cent of BMO’s earnings – has weighed on the bank’s profitability in recent years. The lender has rejigged the structure of its U.S. unit by combining its key businesses and bank sold its transportation and vendor finance businesses.

In June, BMO said it is acquiring the capital markets unit of Australia-based EurozHartleys Group Ltd. as the lender expands its metals and mining investment banking unit. In mid-August, BMO and Royal Bank of Canada said they agreed to jointly sell Moneris to California-based Francisco Partners for about $2-billion in cash.

BMO also plans to grow its retail operations in California, adding about 150 branches over five years.

Heading into the third quarter, analysts expected the bank’s sizable U.S. business to prop up earnings as commercial loan demand in the market edged higher.

BMO had set a target to improve the unit’s ROE from eight per cent to 12 per cent by 2028. In the third quarter, ROE in its U.S. business rose to 9.8 per cent.

“We view the strength from its U.S. retail bank as a distinct positive and meant that BMO did not lean on solely wealth and capital markets to beat consensus,” Jefferies analyst John Aiken said in a note to clients. “We anticipate that these results will be warmly received by investors.”

BMO is the first major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal third quarter. Bank of Nova Scotia is also releasing results Tuesday. National Bank will post earnings on Wednesday. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will wrap up the week with earnings releases on Thursday.

Canadian bank stocks have surged this year, outpacing Canada’s stock market and their U.S. peers. Investors have been eagerly awaiting earnings to help determine whether bank stocks have more room to run, or if their rich valuations have peaked.

In the quarter, BMO set aside $722-million in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may default. That was lower than analysts anticipated and lower than the $797-million in provisions the bank reserved in the same quarter last year.

Total revenue rose 10 per cent in the quarter to $9.9-billion while expenses climbed 31 per cent to $6.68-billion, driven by higher performance-based compensation and a stronger U.S. dollar, as well as investments in talent, technology and marketing.

Profit from Canadian personal and commercial banking was $980-million, up 16 per cent from a year earlier, driven by higher net interest income.

Profit from the bank’s U.S. arm was up 13 per cent at $868-million as the stronger U.S. dollar boosted revenue, expenses and net income by two per cent.

The wealth management division generated $408-million of profit, up four per cent. And capital markets profit surged 46 per cent to $645-million on higher revenue across global markets and investment and corporate banking.

Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T +4.56%increase posted higher third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ expectations on a boost from capital markets and stronger performance across its businesses.

Scotiabank’s net income rose 17 per cent to $2.95-billion, or $2.27 per share, in the three months that ended July 31. Adjusted to exclude certain items, the bank said it earned $2.28per share, topping the $2.10 per share analysts expected, according to data by Bloomberg.

Scotiabank is working on growing its domestic business by attracting lower-cost deposits and selling more products and services to its clients. But competition for deposits has been mounting in the Canadian market as lenders vie for customer cash.

In the first quarter ended Jan. 31, Scotiabank said it expects to hit its target of 14-per-cent return on equity in 2027, a year earlier than expected. In the third quarter, Scotiabank posted an adjusted return on equity of 14.2 per cent.

But the lender is still shy of its ROE target in its critical Canadian banking business. In the quarter, the unit’s ROE improved to 19.4 per cent as Scotiabank aims to boost the metric to the low to mid-twenties.

Scotiabank chief executive officer Scott Thomson has said he anticipates double-digit earnings per share growth the year in its domestic banking business this year – a critical part of Scotiabank’s strategy to boost profitability.

To help bridge the gap, Scotiabank has built a segment focused on midmarket businesses, adding added almost 700 of those commercial clients this year, up about 85 per cent year-over-year, according to the lender’s head of Canadian banking Aris Bogdaneris. The lender is also growing loans with small businesses and focusing on specialized segments, including health care professionals and accountants.

“When you take these two businesses together, we’re confident as we continue, and especially as our transaction banking capabilities improve, that we can hit the 20 per cent plus ROE over time,” Mr. Bogdaneris said during a conference call with analyst.

Scotiabank is the second major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal third quarter. Bank of Montreal posted results earlier Tuesday. National Bank will post earnings on Wednesday. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will wrap up the week with earnings releases on Thursday.

Canadian bank stocks have soared this year, outperforming Canada’s stock market and U.S. lenders. Investors have been eager for third-quarter results to help assess whether bank stocks have more room run higher, or if their lofty valuations have peaked.

In the quarter, Scotiabank set aside $1.08-billion in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may default. That was lower than analysts anticipated but slightly higher than the $1.04-billion in provisions the lender reserved in the same quarter last year.

Total revenue rose 11 per cent in the quarter to $10.53-billion. But expenses increased nine per cent to $5.56-billion, which the bank said was driven by higher staffing and technology costs, as well as the negative impact of foreign exchange.

Profit from Canadian banking was $1.07-billion, up 12 per cent from a year earlier, on higher revenue driven by margin expansion and fee income growth, partially offset by higher provisions.

Scotiabank’s turnaround strategy also depends on reviving its international unit and expanding its capital markets division in the United States. Profit from the bank’s international division was up eight per cent at $725-million.

The global wealth management division generated $515-million of profit, up 23 per cent. And capital markets profit rose 37 per cent to $647-million.

Ottawa is hitting back against the United States with hefty counter-tariffs on $27.6-billion worth of American products including metals, seafood, clothing, home appliances and electronic devices.

On Tuesday morning, the federal government outlined how it plans to retaliate against the new 50-per-cent tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump placed on around $28-billion worth of Canadian goods over the weekend after trade talks collapsed late Friday.

Ottawa is targeting more than 700 items, with most of the levies set at 25 per cent or 50 per cent, with a small number subject to a lower 15-per-cent tariff. The tariffs are scheduled to come into force on Sept. 8.

Ottawa also outlined a $7.5-billion support package of “new and enhanced” measures Tuesday for Canadian workers and businesses affected by the latest wave of American tariffs. The Canadian measures include easier access to Employment Insurance for affected workers and a range of loan programs for businesses.

“When the United States asked too much and offered too little, we chose to stand up for Canadians,” Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said in a statement.

“Our dollar-for-dollar, rate for rate counter-tariffs as well as a multi-billion dollar support package will protect workers, farmers, families, and businesses as we build a stronger, more resilient, and more diversified Canadian economy.”

The most significant part of Canada’s retaliation, from a dollar perspective, is the decision to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as many products made from the metals, to 50 per cent from the current 25 per cent.

After that, the biggest hit will be to machinery and mechanical appliances, paper and paperboard, electrical machinery and seafood.

Ottawa is targeting a number of consumer items, including dishwashers and refrigerators, furniture and lighting, golf clubs, motorcycles and video game consoles. Even smart phones are on the list, although most Canadian smartphones are not actually manufactured in the U.S.

In a briefing about the measures, a government official said that the tariffs had been designed to reduce competition from U.S. companies for Canadian businesses hit by tariffs. He said that the government would continue to accept remission requests from companies who would be unduly impacted by the tariffs.

The Globe is not identifying the officials because they spoke to journalists on background during a technical briefing before the announcement.

Mr. Trump’s new 50-per-cent tariffs against Canadian products hit electronics, plastics, paper, furniture and home appliances, among other products. The U.S. measures target around 5 per cent of Canadian exports with the damage concentrated in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called on the government to recall Parliament early for a debate on Canada’s response. He said the government should bring in an “economic action plan” to support growth that would include a range of measures, including temporarily removing all tax on gasoline and removing the federal sales tax on Canadian-made cars.

Speaking with reporters in Windsor, Mr. Poilievre also encouraged Canadians to buy domestic goods.

“I send the message out to my fellow Canadians: Buy Canadian. Look at the label, make sure that the things you’re buying have as much Canadian content as humanly possible. Support your fellow workers and stand up for our country,” he said.

Mr. Poilievre said he was scheduled to speak with Mr. Carney at 8:30 a.m.

On Monday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford traded insults with Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump commented further on Truth Social Tuesday morning, responding to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s comment that U.S. trade negotiators proposed weakening support for the French language.

“I would never interfere with Canadians speaking French! In fact, I have never even thought of doing such a stupid thing. This lie was made up by a weak and ineffective Prime Minister in an attempt to gain political support, which he has totally lost, from the people of Quebec. I love French Canadians! President DONALD J. TRUMP,” the post said.

He also mused about changing the name of Lake Ontario.

“The United States is giving serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don’t expect to doing much business with Ontario any longer. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Canadian government officials said the $7.5-billion package includes a mix of new and previously announced programs. They also said they do not expect revenues from the new Canadian tariffs to exceed the cost of the support programs.

The specific policies announced Tuesday include a $3.5-billion package of worker supports. This includes extending some existing temporary enhancements to Employment Insurance.

There will also be a new “Workforce Retention and Retraining Program” that will encourage work sharing.

For businesses, regional development agencies will receive an additional $1.5-billion to provide liquidity support.

A new $500-million stream will be added to a loan program at the Business Development Bank of Canada. The government said this will provide working capital to businesses facing cash-flow shortfalls as a result of U.S. tariffs. This new liquidity stream will be added to provide working capital support for small and medium-sized businesses facing immediate cashflow pressures. Companies will be eligible for loans ranging from $250,000 to $5-million and will only be required to pay back interest costs for the first 36 months.

For larger projects, a new stream will be added to the Strategic Response Fund called the Canada Strong Diversification Fund, worth $2-billion. The government said this will support “shovel-ready” projects.

Ottawa also said it is providing “new flexibilities” to the $10-billion Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility, administered by the Canada Enterprise Emergency Funding Corporation (CEEFC). The government said this will provide liquidity for large employers.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has no immediate plans to ask U.S. President Donald Trump and his negotiating team to return to the table for more trade talks, a source with knowledge of the plans said Monday.

The message leaves little optimism for a resolution to punishing new tariffs from the United States and what Mr. Carney on Saturday described as a trade “war” with Canada’s closest ally and economic partner.

The source said while Canada would not ask for talks at this stage, it’s possible the Trump administration could change its mind and ask for negotiations to resume. Though the source cautioned that is not what Ottawa is planning for.

A separate source said Ontario is now planning for at least two years of tariffs from the United States.

The Globe and Mail is not identifying the sources who were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump says he will raise tariffs on Canadian autos to 50 per cent and also start tariffing auto parts on Jan. 1, 2027, after a prospective trade deal between the two countries collapsed on Friday.

Mr. Trump’s latest threatened tariffs would be in addition to 50-per-cent tariffs on US$20-billion worth of Canadian goods that came into effect on Saturday, as well as tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, forest products and other sectoral levies in place since last year.

“Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years,” Mr. Trump wrote on Monday on his Truth Social network. “Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE!”

Mr. Trump said he would double auto tariffs from 25 per cent to 50 per cent and that these would apply to cars, trucks, and auto parts. Auto parts had not previously been tariffed, expanding the economic blast radius of his continental trade war.

Trade talks collapsed at last minute after U.S. commerce chief pressed for harsher terms, sources say

He also said steel tariffs would be “increased” to 50 per cent. These tariffs are already at 50 per cent, as are tariffs on aluminum. Forestry tariffs range from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, in addition to older tariffs on softwood lumber that date to Mr. Trump’s first term.

“Build in the U.S. and there are ZERO TARIFFS. Canada will be treated like a State no longer! On Trade, and in other ways, also, they are among the worst Nations in the World to deal with. They feel entitled, and yet, WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!” Mr. Trump wrote.

He also complained about a “60 Billion Dollar Deficit” between the countries and Canadian tariffs “on our Farmers.” The trade deficit is mostly caused by the U.S. choosing to import Canadian oil and gas. He did not specify which farmers he was referring to, but Canada’s dairy supply-management system has long been a trade irritant. The vast majority of U.S. agricultural products face no tariffs from Canada.

Ottawa readies tariff-relief plan for businesses

Prime Minister Carney said this weekend that he ordered negotiators to walk away from trade talks on Friday after the U.S. added more punitive demands to the trade deal at the last minute. Among other things, he cited American demands that Canada mirror U.S. trade restrictions on other countries, hampering Ottawa’s ability to make trade deals.

He said Canada will retaliate “dollar-for-dollar” against Mr. Trump’s tariffs on US$20-billion of goods. Those Canadian counter-tariffs will start on Sept. 8.

The auto sector was at the centre of trade negotiations in recent weeks, with Canada promising to remove its retaliatory tariffs against U.S. automobiles and to unwind its remission system – which lowers tariffs for companies that retain production in Canada – in return for lower U.S. tariffs on autos.

The Trump administration had offered to cut auto tariffs to 15 per cent from 25 per cent. However, the two sides disagreed about whether that relief would apply to trucks, and whether there would be a tariff carve-out for Canadian content in the vehicles mirroring the existing carve-out for U.S. content.

Mr. Carney said that Mr. Trump’s negotiating team informed Canadian negotiators at the last minute that medium- and heavy-duty trucks – such as General Motor Co.’s GM-N Chevrolet Silverado produced in Oshawa, Ont., and Ford Motor Co.’s F-N F-Series trucks that will be produced in Oakville – would not be getting the tariff relief granted to light vehicles.

Throughout the negotiations last week, the auto industry and Ontario Premier Doug Ford pushed Ottawa to try to get better terms for the sector. Even though the deal would have lowered the effective tariff rate on Canadian-made light vehicles to around 7.5 per cent, auto industry experts have argued the tariff rate needs to be in the low single-digits to ensure the long-term profitability and survival of final vehicle assembly in Canada.

Auto tariffs of 15% would erase profitability and spur industry’s decline, experts say

Mr. Carney was also under pressure from Quebec cabinet ministers over a U.S. demand that Canada drop rules obliging streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon Prime to prioritize Canadian content, including French-language content, in what its algorithms surface for viewers in Canada.

On Monday, Mr. Ford suggested that Canada should cut off the U.S.’s oil supply in response to Mr. Trump escalating his trade war.

“Well, he can kiss my ass, as far as I’m concerned,” the Ontario Premier told Toronto talk radio station NewsTalk 1010. “We’re going to go at him full speed,” he said, threatening that American motorists ”won’t be able to fill up, because we’ll be controlling the oil and the gas going down there.”

Mr. Carney has previously said he does not “see the value” in putting energy exports such as oil on the table in trade talks. “Canadians are reliable,” he said last month in Alberta. “People trust us, and so, when you’re a supplier of a key commodity, key service, you’ve got to think really hard about not supplying.”

Last year, Mr. Ford announced a surcharge on Ontario’s electricity exports to the U.S. as retaliation for Mr. Trump’s tariffs. He quickly backed down after Mr. Trump threatened to increase tariffs in response.

Throughout the trade war over the past year, auto parts have been excluded from tariffs in recognition of the crucial role hundreds of Canadian parts suppliers play in U.S. auto supply chains. Mr. Trump’s new threat to impose 50-per-cent tariffs on auto parts would amount to a major escalation.

With the prospective trade deal in shambles, the auto industry is relying on the remission system Ottawa put in place last year to protect the sector.

The system gives auto manufacturers a break on Canada’s 25-per-cent tariffs on U.S.-made vehicles if they maintain their production levels in Canada. In effect, it’s leveraging access to Canada’s sizeable auto market of around 2-million vehicles per year to convince the “big three” Detroit automakers, Honda HNDAF and Toyota TM-N to keep their factories on this side of the border.

The two sides have spent more than a year and a half in off-and-on negotiations over Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The deal last week, arrived at after a month of feverish talks, would have seen Canada accept some of Mr. Trump’s tariffs and make a long list of other concessions in exchange for the President lowering the tariffs and not hitting Canada with new ones.