Category: Uncategorized

* Note: Several additional U.S. data reports could be be released if the government shutdown is resolved. Earnings dates are subject to change

Monday November 3

Manufacturing PMIs released in China and Europe

930 am ET: S&P global manufacturing PMI

10 am ET: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI

130 pm ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem holds a fireside chat in Toronto

Auto sales for October

Earnings include: Berkshire Hathaway Inc.; CT REIT; Franco-Nevada Corp.; Gibson Energy Inc.; Palantir Technologies Inc.; Topaz Energy Corp.

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Tuesday November 4

Japan releases manufacturing PMI

Canadian federal budget

Earnings include: Advanced Micro Devices Inc.; Amgen Inc.; Artemis Gold Inc.; Boardwalk REIT; Colliers International Group Inc.; Dream Industrial REIT; Energy Fuels Inc.; Ero Copper Corp.; First Capital Realty Inc.; Fortis Inc.; Hut 8 Corp.; IA Financial Corp. Inc.; Iamgold Corp.; Intact Financial Corp.; Kinross Gold Corp.; Marriott International Inc.; Meg Energy Corp.; Ovintiv Inc.; Pfizer Inc.; Shopify Inc.; Spotify Technology SA; SSR Mining Inc.; Uber Technologies Inc.; Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.

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Wednesday November 5

China and euro area services PMIs

Germany releases factory orders and France industrial production

815 am ET: U.S. ADP national employment report for October

930 am ET: S&P global services PMI

10 am ET: U.S. S&P global services/composite PMI

430 pm ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and senior deputy Rogers testify before the House Standing Committee on finance

Earnings include: Applovin Corp.; Arm Holdings ADR; Brookfield Renewable Partners LP; B2Gold Corp.; Cameco Corp.; CGI Inc.; Choice Properties REIT; Doordash Inc.; First Majestic Silver Corp.; GFL Environmental Holdings Inc.; Great-West Lifeco Inc.; Keyera Corp.; Kinaxis Inc.; Linamar Corp.; Maple Leaf Foods Inc.; McDonald’s Corp.; Novo Nordisk ADR; Nutrien Ltd.; Open Text Corp.; Robinhood Markets Inc.; Stella-Jones Inc.; Suncor Energy Inc.; Sun Life Financial Inc.; Torex Gold Resources Inc.; WSP Global Inc.

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Thursday November 6

China trade surplus

Euro area retail sales and Germany industrial production

7 am ET: Bank of England monetary policy announcement

10 am ET: Canada Ivey PMI

10 am ET: U.S. global supply chain pressure index

1030 am ET: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and senior deputy Governor Rogers testify before the Senate Banking Committee

Ontario fall fiscal update

Earnings include: Arc Resources Ltd.; AstraZeneca PLC; BCE Inc.; Bombardier Inc.; Brookfield Business Partners LP; Canadian Apartment Properties REIT; Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.; Chartwell Retirement Residences; ConocoPhillips; Definity Financial Corp.; DPM Metals Inc.; Exchange Income Corp. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.; IGM Financial Inc.; Lundin Gold Inc.; Pembina Pipeline Corp.; Premium Brands Holdings Corp.; Quebecor Corp.; RioCan REIT; Saputo Inc.; TC Energy Corp.; TransAlta Corp.; Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

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Friday November 7

830 am ET: Canada employment for October. Consensus is for 20,000 net job losses, with the unemployment rate rising one notch to 7.2%. Average hourly wages are expected to be up 3.2% from a year ago.

10 am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings include: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.; Atco Ltd.; Boralex Inc.; Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.; Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP; Canadian Utilities Ltd.; Constellation Software Inc.; Emera Inc.; Enbridge Inc.; Endeavour Silver Corp.; Onex Corp.; Telus Corp.

Here’s a tight, sourced outlook for winter 2025/26 U.S. natural gas (Henry Hub) with what’s priced in now and the main swing risks.

What’s priced in today (futures strip)

As of today’s quotes, the CME winter strip implies a modest run-up into Jan and easing by March:

• Dec ’25: ~$3.84
• Jan ’26: ~$4.12
• Feb ’26: ~$3.90
• Mar ’26: ~$3.57. CME Group

Base-case takeaway: the market is discounting a $3.6–$4.2/MMBtu winter, peaking in January.

Fundamentals setting the tone

• High starting storage: EIA shows 3,882 Bcf for the week ending Oct 24 and projects near-record start-of-winter inventories and an end-of-withdrawal level around 1,990 Bcf (≈8% above 5-yr avg) if weather is normal—this dampens spike risk. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
• STEO price path: EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook has Henry Hub near $4.10 in Jan ’26, up from sub-$3 in Sep ’25 thanks to seasonal demand, but softer than prior forecasts due to stronger production/storage. U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Weather setup: NOAA’s Winter Outlook (issued Oct 16) leans La Niña with EC/“equal chances” of below/near/above-normal temps for much of the Lower-48 and wetter PNW/Northern Plains—i.e., not a strongly bullish cold signal nationally. Climate Prediction Center+1
• LNG exports: U.S. LNG capacity is ramping through 2025-26 (Plaquemines P1/P2, Corpus Christi Stage 3; Golden Pass commissioning starting Q4 ’25). Adds winter demand pull but timing is staggered. Riviera Maritime Media+3U.S. Energy Information Administration+3U.S. Energy Information Administration+3
• Global backdrop: IEA’s Gas 2025 notes comfortable near-term balances with big LNG additions coming, curbing extreme upside unless winter is harsh. iea.blob.core.windows.net+1

My forecast (Henry Hub, Dec–Mar average)

• Base case (most likely): $3.60–$4.20/MMBtu average, peak days in late Dec–Jan if cold shots line up. Supported by high storage + only moderately cold NOAA outlook; aligns with the strip and EIA STEO. CME Group+2U.S. Energy Information Administration+2
• Bull case (colder-than-normal or LNG ramp faster): brief spikes into $5–$6 possible on Arctic outbreaks or LNG outages flipping to heavy draws—but persistence would require multi-week cold across major load centers. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
• Bear case (warm winter / production surprises): $3.00–$3.50 if DJF temps skew warm and storage stays well above average. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1

What would change the call quickly

1. Weather: Early-season cold in the Midwest/Northeast (watch NOAA weekly updates) → shifts toward bull case. Climate Prediction Center
2. LNG timing: Faster commissioning at Golden Pass and steady Plaquemines/Corpus ramp → stronger winter baseload demand. Delays do the opposite. argusmedia.com+1
3. Storage trajectory: EIA weekly prints materially below 5-yr → tightens balances; persistent above-avg → caps rallies. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Practical read-across (Canada)

If you hedge off Henry Hub, expect AECO basis to move with pipeline/maintenance dynamics; directional winter view still anchors to HH.

Carney says he advised Ford not to run anti-tariff ad

Prime Minister Mark Carney said he advised Ontario Premier Doug Ford not to run a TV ad critical of Donald Trump’s tariffs that resulted in the U.S. President cancelling trade talks and threatening higher levies.

Speaking to reporters at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Mr. Carney also confirmed he had apologized to Mr. Trump for the advertisement.

“The President was offended by the ad and it’s not something I would have done, which is to put in place that advertisement, and so I apologized to him.”

He said the apology was conveyed to the U.S. President Wednesday evening when the pair and other leaders attended a dinner hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. The meal was in Mr. Trump’s honour.

Mr. Carney, who had viewed the ad before it went to air, said he had advised the Ontario premier not to broadcast it. “You saw what came of it,” he said of the fallout from the advertisement.

Mr. Ford has defended the TV spot but Mr. Carney noted Saturday “there are other premiers who have different view in terms of the utility of those ads.”

Mr. Ford’s office declined to comment on Saturday, and pointed to the Premier’s previous comments defending the ad. Mr. Ford has not directly said whether Mr. Carney told him not to run the ad.

When asked last week if the Prime Minister approved the ad, Mr. Ford said, “They know what I was doing, and I said I was going to stop it on Monday. It was very successful.”

Canada has been negotiating with the Trump administration for more than six months in hopes of getting the U.S. President to reduce a slew of tariffs he’s imposed on Canadian goods.

Mr. Carney said the two sides had been making progress before talks were suspended last week.

On Friday, Mr. Trump told reporters he did not plan to restart trade talks with Canada despite the fact he is fond of Mr. Carney and regardless of the fact the Canadian Prime Minister apologized for the TV ad. “I have a very good relationship. I like him a lot. But you know, what they did was wrong,” the U.S President said.

Asked what his next move was, Mr. Carney said it’s the federal budget on Nov. 4 in which he will introduce measures to help refashion the Canadian economy for an era of U.S. protections where businesses in Canada need to find alternative markets.

“We can spend our time watching Truth Social,” Mr. Carney said. Or, Canada can restructure its economy, he said.

“We’re focusing on what we can control, which first and foremost is how we build at home.”

The U.S. President broke off trade talks with Canada last week, citing the Ontario government TV ad. After it aired during Game 1 of the World Series, he announced that he would boost tariffs on Canadian imports by another 10 per cent.

The 60-second TV spot used footage from nearly 40 years ago of former U.S. president Ronald Reagan decrying American protectionism, saying such trade barriers hurt every American worker and consumer.

Mr. Trump has not yet issued any executive order to enforce the threatened 10-per-cent hike. It’s not clear if this new levy would apply to all Canadian imports or a selection of them. And he has announced no date for this increase.

In addition to U.S. tariffs on goods not compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Mr. Trump has imposed a number of sectoral tariffs that affect Canadian industry disproportionately, including a 50-per-cent levy on steel and aluminum and a 25-per-cent levy on automobiles. Softwood producers are facing levies totalling more than 45 per cent.

Magna International Inc. reported US$305 million in net income attributable to the company, down from US$484 million in the same quarter last year. The auto parts company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says the profit amounted to US$1.08 per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with US$1.68 per diluted share a year earlier. Sales for the quarter totalled US$10.46 billion, up from US$10.28 billion in the same quarter last year. On an adjusted basis, Magna says it earned US$1.33 per diluted share in its most recent quarter, up from an adjusted profit of US$1.28 per diluted share a year earlier. In its outlook, Magna says it now expects company sales for 2025 to total between US$41.1 billion and US$42.1 billion compared with earlier guidance for between US$40.4 billion and US$42.0 billion. Adjusted net income attributable to the company is expected to be between US$1.45 billion and US$1.55 billion compared with earlier guidance for between US$1.35 billion and US$1.55 billion. 

Canadian oil producer Imperial Oil IMO-T -2.24%decrease posted a sharp fall in third-quarter profit on Friday, hurt by non-cash impairment and restructuring charges and lower crude prices.

In September, Imperial said it would cut its work force by about 20 per cent by the end of 2027, part of a major restructuring that would eventually shutter most of its presence in the oil-and-gas city of Calgary.

The planned layoffs come as global crude prices have slumped this year due to increased output from the OPEC+ group of oil producers and trade policy uncertainty.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell nearly 14 per cent in the July–September quarter from last year.

Imperial Oil CEO says company can weather trade war’s economic turmoil

The quarter included a $306-million after-tax non-cash impairment of Imperial’s Calgary campus and a $249-million after-tax restructuring charge.

The Calgary-based company said its net income fell to $539-million, or $1.07 per share, in the quarter ended Sept. 30, from $1.24-billion, or $2.33 per share, a year earlier.

Magna International MG-T +3.54%increase raised its annual sales forecast on Friday, as the Canadian auto parts supplier leans on demand for its vehicle assembly business and safety systems.

The results follow peers Aptiv APTV-N -0.52%decrease and BorgWarner BWA-N -3.74%decrease warning of production snarls from a supply crunch related to Dutch firm Nexperia and a fire at a critical aluminum supplier.

Magna, which counts Ford, General Motors, Stellantis and other European automakers as customers, expects its annual sales to be between US$41.1-billion ($57.6-billion) and US$42.1-billion ($59-billion), up from its prior range of US$40.4-billion ($56.6-billion) to US$42.0-billion ($58.8-billion).

U.S.-listed shares of the company were up about 1 per cent in premarket trade.

Federal MPs question Stellantis executive about moving Jeep production from Brampton

Steady demand for advanced driver-aid safety technology and auto parts from automakers ramping up production has helped auto parts suppliers amid the disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs.

Magna, which has factories in North America and Europe, assembles units for automakers at its complete vehicle manufacturing unit.

Its quarterly sales rose 1.7 per cent to US$10.5-billion ($14.7-billion) from a year earlier. Analysts on average expected the company to report sales of US$10.14-billion ($14.2-billion), according to data compiled by LSEG.

On an adjusted basis, Magna earned US$1.33 ($1.86) per share for the quarter through September, above estimates of US$1.21 ($1.70).

Cenovus Energy CVE-T +0.68%increase posted a rise in third-quarter profit on Friday, driven by record oil sands production and near-full refinery utilization that helped offset weaker crude prices.

U.S.-listed shares of the Canadian oil and gas producer rose 1.5 per cent in premarket trading.

The Calgary-based producer’s results come as it pursues a major expansion through its planned $8.6-billion acquisition of MEG Energy MEG-T +0.37%increase.

A MEG shareholder vote on the deal was postponed this week to allow for additional regulatory disclosures.

Cenovus produced a record 832,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the quarter, up from 771,300 boepd a year earlier, led by higher volumes at its Foster Creek and Christina Lake projects.

Refining throughput also hit a record 710,700 barrels per day (bpd), up from last year’s 642,900 bpd, with U.S. plants running at 99 per cent utilization and per-barrel costs down 24 per cent from a year earlier.

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CEO Jon McKenzie said Cenovus delivered record volumes across the business with major growth projects near completion.

Drilling at the company’s West White Rose offshore project is due to start by the end of the year, with first oil expected in 2026.

The results also come against the backdrop of volatile oil markets, with the benchmark Brent crude averaging about US$68 a barrel in the July–September quarter, down more than 13 per cent from a year earlier, as OPEC+ output hikes and slowing global demand pressured prices.

Cenovus trimmed its 2025 U.S. downstream throughput forecast to between 510,000 and 515,000 bpd, about 52,500 barrels lower at the midpoint, as it closed the sale of its 50-per-cent interest in WRB Refining LP and received proceeds of $1.8-billion.

Cenovus said net income rose to $1.29-billion, or 72 cents per share, in the three months ended Sept. 30, from $820-million, or 42 cents per share, a year earlier.

Canadian National Railway Co. CNR-T +3.17%increase is slashing its capital spending and laying off managers as the tariff war crimps freights shipments between Canada and the United States.

The cuts will help it weather a “challenging” economy buffeted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s chaotic rollout of tariffs on lumber, metals and other goods, said Tracy Robinson, CN’s chief executive officer.

“Adjusting cost structures is critical, especially in a soft macro environment, and we’re pursuing all opportunities across our whole work force and asset base,” Ms. Robinson told analysts on a financial results conference call on Friday morning.

Montreal-based CN posted a 5-per-cent rise in profit in the third quarter, while revenue rose by 1 per cent to $4.2-billion from the same period a year ago.

Profit for the three months ending on Sept. 30 was $1.13-billion or $1.83 a share, CN said, compared with $1.09-billion ($1.72) in the third quarter of 2024.

Air Canada adds four U.S. routes from Toronto’s Billy Bishop

CN increased train length by 3 per cent and fuel efficiency by 2 per cent, contributing to a 3-per-cent drop in operating expenses, compared with the same quarter of 2024. The removal of the federal carbon tax helped reduce fuel expenses by 20 per cent.

Ms. Robinson said cargo volumes were lower than the railway expected for the period because of the tariffs and overall economic weakness.

In financial results released before markets opened, CN said it is sticking with earlier 2025 guidance of adjusted earnings growth of 5 per cent to 9 per cent.

Ms. Robinson said the railway is cutting its capital spending plans for 2026 by $600-million from $3.4-billion this year. The move follows construction to add capacity at some terminals, and upgrades to the locomotive and railcar fleets.

CN has shed 1,200 jobs since this time last year and recently laid off 400 managers at locations across Canada and the United States. The management cuts saved $75-million.

“As we look to 2026, we see another year of limited volume growth with a weak outlook for North American industrial production and housing starts and some mixed headwinds given the continued impact of tariffs on forest products, in particular,” Ms. Robinson said.

Federal MPs question Stellantis executive about moving Jeep production from Brampton

Analysts on the call asked if the reduced spending would hamper the railway’s ability to respond to any rise in demand for freight shipments.

Ms. Robinson said the company is set to handle any growth in cargo, but expects 2026 freight volumes will be flat. “We’re gonna run tight, we’re gonna be lean, but we will have the ability to flex up as the volumes turn up,” she said.

CN’s share price rose by 5 per cent in early trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

CN employs 24,000 people and operates a rail network that spans Canada and extendsthrough the United States.

Canada’s gross domestic product contracted in August against widespread expectations of no growth, data showed on Friday, but an advanced estimate pointed out the economy might escape a recession in the third quarter.

The economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in August following an upwardly revised growth of 0.3 per cent in the prior month, Statistics Canada said, which effectively nullifies any growth so far in the current quarter.

This was the fourth monthly contraction in five months and was led by a drop in output from both the services and goods sector, it said.

An advance indicator suggested that the monthly GDP would likely expand by 0.1 per cent in September, taking the total annualized growth of the third quarter to 0.4 per cent, missing Bank of Canada’s forecast.

The advance estimate is not always accurate and could change. The annualized quarterly estimate is based on industrial output data while Statscan will publish the annualized quarterly GDP based on income and expenditure.

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A likely growth in the third quarter, which is hinged on the economy boosting its output in September on an aggregate, means Canada could avoid a recession in Q3.

Two quarterly contractions in a row is considered a recession.

Canada’s GDP had shrank in the second quarter by 1.6 per cent as the impact of tariffs on steel, cars, lumber and aluminum, and general trade uncertainty reduced exports and hurt growth.

The Bank of Canada said this week that the third quarter annualized GDP was likely to be 0.5 per cent.

The manufacturing sector, which is the hardest hit due to U.S. tariffs and accounts for almost a tenth of the GDP, contracted by 0.5 per cent in August, data from Statscan showed.

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The biggest drop, however, was seen in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction which contracted by 0.7 per cent, primarily due to a 1.2 per cent drop in metal ore mining and a 5 per cent drop in coal mining, Statscan said.

Amongst the services sector, the main contractions were seen in transportation and warehousing, in part because of an airline strike, as well as wholesale trade.

However, growth in retail trade and real estate and rental and leasing helped offset some of the drop in the services sector.