Category: Uncategorized

Consumer inflation is expected to have been even hotter in June, but it could be peaking

• Consumer prices continued to shoot higher in June, with the headline consumer price index expected to reach 8.8% year over year, according to Dow Jones.
• But economists say that considering the falloff in gasoline prices, June’s headline CPI could be the peak of inflation for now.
• Core inflation, excluding gasoline and food, is expected to go from 6% in May to 5.7%, the third month in a row of slowing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/12/consumer-inflation-is-expected-to-have-been-even-hotter-in-june-but-it-could-be-peaking.html

‘Toronto housing market cooling fast’: Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategist Jean-Michel Gauthier detailed the rapid slowdown in Toronto real estate values in a Friday research report,

“June data from the Toronto Real Estate Board highlighted a rapidly decelerating housing market in Toronto. Sales were down 8.7% month-over-month on a deseasonalized basis (-59% from 2021 high) with the median house selling price down 4.2% sequentially as well (-14% from the February 2022 all-time high). Looking at measures of market tightness also reveals rapidly declining buying interest: … The average house selling price as a % of the listing price has plunged back to 100% from an all-time high of 116% hit in February. In other words, as recently as 4 months ago, buyers were engaged in generalized bidding wars that saw the average home go 16% above its listing price. For comparison, that ratio was 95% at the depth of the housing trough in 1995/1996 and 96% at the worst of the financial crisis, while the previous high stood at 111% in early 2017 ahead of the imposition of a tax on foreign buyers. The average number of days on the market has also sharply risen, albeit from a low base.”

“Scotiabank: “Toronto Housing Market Cooling Fast “” – (research excerpt) Twitter

Another hot inflation report and the start of earnings season make for a challenging week ahead

• Consumer inflation data and the start of the second-quarter earnings season could set the course for markets and result in volatile trading in the week ahead.
• The June consumer price index on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation, including food and energy, rising above May’s 8.6% level.
• “The street has not really changed the [earnings] estimates. Revenue growth has ticked down. Margins are compressing. Analysts are leaving their estimates unchanged,” said one strategist. “If there’s going to be a readjustment, this is the time.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/another-hot-inflation-report-q2-earnings-make-for-difficult-week-ahead.html

Economic Calendar: July 11

Monday July 11

China CPI, PPI, aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans and money supply

Japan core machine and tool orders

—

Tuesday July 12

China trade surplus

Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB small business economic trends survey for June.

Earnings include: PepsiCo Inc.

—

Wednesday July 13

Euro zone industrial production

Germany CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s census household data for 2021

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for June. The Street is projecting an increase of 1.1 per cent from May and up 8.8 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement and monetary policy report (with press conference to follow).

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for June.

Earnings include: Cogeco Inc.; Cogeco Communications Inc.; Delta Air Lines Inc.; Progressive Corp.

—

Thursday July 14

Japan industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for May. Estimates are declines of 2.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent from April, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s construction investment for May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of July 9. Estimate is 235,000, unchanged from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI Final Demand for June. Consensus is a rise of 0.8 per cent from May and 10.8 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: Cintas Corp.; First Republic Bank; Goodfood Market Corp.; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Morgan Stanley; Theratechnologies Inc.

—

Friday July 15

China GDP, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment

Japan department store sales and tertiary industry index

Euro zone trade deficit

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s wholesale trade for May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for May. Estimate is a year-over-year decline of 8.5 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for May.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales for June. Estimate is a decline of 25 per cent year-over-year with average prices rising 4 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for June. Consensus is an increase of 0.9 per cent from May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for June. The Street expects a rise of 0.7 per cent month-over-month and 11.3 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS home price index for June. Estimate is an increase of 16.5 per cent from the same period a year ago.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for June. Consensus is unchanged from May with capacity utilization sliding 0.3 per cent to 80.5 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for May. The Street expects an increase of 1.1 per cent from April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment for May.

Also: G20 finance ministers and governors meeting in Jakarta (through Saturday).

Earnings include: Bank of NY Mellon; Blackrock Inc.; Citigroup Inc.; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; State Street Corp.; UnitedHealth Group Inc.; U.S. Bancorp.; Wells Fargo & Co.

Rogers customers reporting service outages across Canada

Rogers Communications Inc customers across Ontario and in other areas across the country were reporting outages Friday morning.

According to online tracker Downdetector Canada, there were more than 20,000 reports as of 6:45 a.m. Users were reporting problems related to internet, TV and Wi-Fi connections.

While the highest concentration came from Ontario, there were also reports of outages in Montreal, Winnipeg and Edmonton.

Early this morning Toronto police tweeted that some people would have trouble calling 911 because of Rogers’ technical difficulties.

The outages also appeared to be impacting Interac and wholesale re-sellers of Rogers services, the CBC reported.

Rogers did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

Additional Reporting by Reuters

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Japan’s former PM Shinzo Abe dies from injuries after being shot

• Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan, died Friday after being shot.
• The former prime minister was shot while delivering a speech in the city of Nara, near Kyoto.
• The incident has sent shockwaves through Japan, a country where gun violence is extremely rare.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/japans-former-pm-shinzo-abe-dies-from-injuries-after-being-shot-nhk-reports.html

European markets close 2% higher; UK’s Johnson resigns as prime minister

• Investors were digesting the latest Fed minutes, in which the central bank’s officials reiterated a tough stance against inflation.
• U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned on Thursday, after more than 50 resignations from his government in light of a string of scandals.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/european-markets-open-to-close-fed-minutes-data-and-earnings.html

Crescent Point Energy raising quarterly dividend again

Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG-T +13.19%increase is raising its quarterly dividend after announcing it has sold off some of its non-core assets and reached its net debt target ahead of schedule.

The Calgary-based oil company announced Thursday it has completed the sale of its non-core Viking and East Shale Duvernay assets for $300 million.

Crescent Point says proceeds from the sale of the assets, which include approximately 4,000 barrels of oil production per day, are being used to pay down the company’s debt.

In a news release, Crescent Point said continued improvement in the company’s financial position and outlook will allow it to increase its shareholder returns. On a quarterly basis and beginning in the third quarter of 2022, Crescent Point will target the return of up to 50 per cent of its discretionary excess cash flow to shareholders.

The company said it will now make a base quarterly payment to shareholders of eight cents per share. The new dividend will be paid on Oct. 3 to shareholders of record on Sept. 15.

In May, Crescent Point raised its quarterly dividend to 6.5 cents per share from 4.5 cents.

Like all Canadian oil producers, Crescent Point is benefiting from a surge in commodity prices in 2022. Crescent Point expects to generate more than $1.4 billion of excess cash flow in 2022, of which it said approximately $775 million will be realized during the second half of the year based on the presumption of a West Texas Intermediate price of approximately US$100 per barrel.

Crescent Point also updated its environmental targets Thursday, saying it is now targeting a 38 per cent reduction from 2020 levels in Scope One and Two greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 2030. The company also announced a goal to reduce surface freshwater use in Saskatchewan by 25 per cent by 2025 and said it is on track to reduce its inactive well count by 30 per cent by 2031.