Category: Uncategorized

Monday January 27

China industrial profits and PMI

Germany business sentiment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for December. The Street expects an annualized rate rise of 0.9 per cent.

Earnings include: AT&T Inc.; Nucor Corp.

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Tuesday January 28

China’s markets closed (through Friday)

Japan machine tool orders

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for December. The consensus estimates are month-over-month increases of 0.8 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city) for November. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent from October and 4.3 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for November. The Street expects an increase of 0.3 per cent from October an up 4.2 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for January.

Earnings include: Boeing Co.; General Motors Co.; Metro Inc.; Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd.; Starbucks Corp.; Stryker Corp.

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Wednesday January 29

Japan consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for December.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement and monetary policy report with press conference to follow at 10:30 a.m.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement with chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

Earnings include: ADP; Alibaba ADR; ASML ADR; Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.; Caterpillar Inc.; CGI Inc.; IBM; Meta Platforms Inc.; Methanex Corp.; Microsoft Corp.; Norfolk Southern Corp.; Qualcomm Inc.; Tesla Inc.

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Thursday January 30

Euro zone GDP, economic and consumer confidence and jobless rate

ECB monetary policy meeting

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP price index for Q4. The Street is expecting annualized rate increases of 2.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Jan. 25. Estimate is 218,000, down, 5,000 from the previous week.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for December. Consensus is a month-over-month decline of 1.0 per cent.

Earnings include: Altria Group; Amazon; Apple Inc.; Blackstone Inc.; Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP; Canada Goose Holdings Inc.; Canadian National Railway Co.; Champion Iron Ltd.; Comcast Corp.; Mastercard Inc.; Rogers Communications Inc.; Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.; United Parcel Service Inc.; Visa Inc.

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Friday January 31

Japan jobless rate, retail sales and industrial production

ECB’s three-year CPI expectations

Germany retail sales, CPI and unemployment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for November. Consensus is a drop of 0.1 per cent from October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for January. The Street is projecting month-over-month increases of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for December. Consensus is a rise of 0.2 per cent from November and up 2.8 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. employment cost index for Q4. The Street is estimating an increase of 1.0 per cent from Q3 and up 4.0 per cent year-over-year.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago PMI for January.

Also: Ottawa’s budget balance for November.

Earnings include: AbbVie Inc.; Brookfield Business Partners LP; Brookfield Renewable Partners LP; Chevron Corp.; Colgate-Palmolive Co.; Exxon Mobil Corp.; Imperial Oil Ltd.;

Baystreet.ca – Mon Jan 20

One top Canadian dividend stock that has been picking up steam of late is pipeline giant Enbridge (TSX:ENB)(NYSE:ENB). Known for its high-yielding payout and overall consistency, investors have become more bullish on it of late in the hopes that a new Republican government in the U.S. could result in friendlier relations between Canada and the U.S. with respect to oil and gas.

The stock currently yields around 6%, and that’s down from where it was months earlier. In six months, shares of Enbridge have risen by 30%, pushing it to a new 52-week high last week. Despite the risk of tariffs in the U.S., investors remain bullish on the business. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has met with Donald Trump in a face-to-face meeting as there remains some hope that tariffs may be avoided. However, it remains a risk for many Canadian stocks as the new U.S. president takes over.

Enbridge has generally been a fairly stable company to invest in due to its long-term contracts and the important role its pipelines play in the oil and gas industry. And that can be why many investors aren’t overly concerned for now as a Republican government typically enacts favorable oil and gas policies.

But given the uncertainty ahead, investors may want to hold off on investing in Enbridge for the time being given its hot rally of late and the stock trading at a new high. Although Enbridge is a good long-term investment and can be a great income stock to hold on to, its price may drop lower as its valuation is a bit elevated right now and bad news relating to tariffs could lead to a selloff, at least in the short term.

The U.S. Federal Reserve said Friday that it is leaving an international grouping of central banks that focused on how regulation of the financial system could help combat climate change. The Fed’s membership has been criticized by Republicans in Congress.

In a short statement, the Fed said it had “appreciated” working with the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. But it added that the organization “has increasingly broadened in scope, covering a wider range of issues that are outside of the Board’s statutory mandate.”

The move is another example of the central bank, which is intended to be independent of politics, taking steps that could insulate it from criticism from the incoming Trump administration. Earlier this month, Michael Barr, who headed up the Fed’s financial regulatory efforts and was fiercely opposed by large banks, said he would step down at the end of this month as vice chair for financial supervision. He remains on the Fed’s governing board.

Stephen Miran, whom President-elect Donald Trump has named as a top White House economic adviser, co-authored a paper last year at the Manhattan Institute that criticized the Fed’s consideration of climate change in bank regulation as “mission creep.”

The Fed said it would join the NGFS in December 2020, after President Joe Biden was elected, and was one of the last major central banks to do so. Over 140 central banks and financial regulatory agencies around the world are members.

Participating in the network “is the least that the Fed can do to address climate-related financial risk, and now it’s not even doing that,” said Jeremy Kress, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross business school that focuses on bank regulation. “Backing away from that is concerning.”

Five of the Fed’s seven governors voted in favor of leaving the network, including Chair Jerome Powell. Governors Michael Barr and Adriana Kugler abstained.

Four of Canada’s big banks have quit a global alliance of financial institutions set up to meet climate goals, joining a rush of lenders to do so.

Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce have left the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, following the largest U.S. banks, which bailed on the organization in recent weeks against a backdrop of legal and antitrust worries.

The NZBA members aim for financed emissions reduction targets for 2030, using scenarios that adhere to a long-term global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels.

In a statement on Friday, BMO spokesman Jeff Roman said that despite its exit from the NZBA, the bank is still committed to meeting its climate targets and helping clients with their decarbonization goals. But he didn’t give a reason for its departure from the group.

“We have robust internal capabilities to implement relevant international standards, supporting our climate strategy and meeting regulatory requirements,” Mr. Roman said.

National Bank said it decided to streamline how it reports on plans and progress in light of its mandatory disclosure requirements. The bank will still work with companies “including large emitters and renewable energy providers, to promote impactful decarbonization strategies,” Debby Cordeiro, senior vice-president, communication, public affairs and ESG, said in a statement.

CIBC noted the alliance was set up at a time when the banking industry was scaling up its climate efforts. “As this space has evolved and matured, and having made significant progress alongside our clients in these areas, we are now well-positioned to further this work outside of the formal structure of the NZBA,” spokesman Tom Wallis said.

TD said it will advance its strategy and advise its clients “as they adapt their businesses and seize new opportunities.”

The exodus raises questions about the alliance’s future as an organization designed to marshal massive funds needed for the shift to low-carbon economies. On Monday, its sister organization, the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, suspended operations after the departure of its largest member, BlackRock Inc. That group said it would assess if it “remains fit for purpose in the new global context.”

That includes pushback against environmental, social and governance programs that has intensified with the political shift to the right. With Donald Trump returning to the White House on Monday, companies fear the risks of emphasizing sustainability as Republicans leaders at the state level have sought to ban such measures. Many have cancelled such programs in recent months.

As of Friday, Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia were still listed as NZBA members.

At a conference last week, BMO chief executive officer Darryl White and RBC CEO Dave McKay questioned whether membership in the global alliance was still the best way for institutions to undertake climate-related action. “If our countries have an objective to get to a certain point, we will be part of that, and therefore pulling out of NZBA hypothetically doesn’t lead to non-commitment to net-zero climate change,” Mr. McKay told the audience.

RBC had no further comment on Friday. The other Canadian institutions were not immediately available to comment on their commitments to the alliance.

U.S. banks JP Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have quit the NZBA since early December. Each hassaid its decision did not mean it was abandoning its net-zero goals or efforts to help clients meet their emission-reduction targets.

The sector-specific alliances exist under an umbrella called Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, which was unveiled with fanfare at the United Nations climate summit in 2021 amid excitement over the potential for the might of the finance industry being brought to bear on climate action.

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor – and now federal Liberal leadership hopeful – Mark Carney, and Michael Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg L.P. and former mayor of New York were co-chairs. Mr. Carney resigned that post this week as he announced his bid to become prime minister.

The Canadian automaking industry warns incoming U.S. president Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs of 25 per cent on all imports from Canada threatens to devastate the sector across the continent and drive up costs for car buyers.

Makers of cars and auto parts in Canada are bracing for Monday’s inauguration of Mr. Trump, who has vowed to slap tariffs on Canada and Mexico unless they shore up border security to stop the flow of migrants and illegal drugs. Canadian leaders have said they are planning retaliatory tariffs against Mr. Trump’s move, which could cost thousands of jobs and send the country into an economic recession.

Brian Kingston, president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association (CVMA), which represents the three Detroit-based car makers, calls the threat of U.S. tariffs “extremely problematic.”

For decades, governments in Canada, the United States and Mexico have crafted free-trade agreements that allowed the auto industry to become fully integrated across borders. This means car components can cross the border several times – tariff free – before an automobile rolls off the assembly line to be taken to a dealer’s lot anywhere in North America, also tariff free.

“It’s so integrated that there is no such thing as an American-built vehicle. There’s no such thing as a Canadian-built vehicle. There’s no such thing as a Mexican-built vehicle,” Mr. Kingston said. “We build vehicles together.”

Vehicles are Canada’s second-most valuable export, worth $51-billion in 2023. About 93 per cent are sent to the United States, the CVMA says. Canadian plants made 1.5 million passenger vehicles in 2023, and employed 128,000 people manufacturing autos and parts.

The Trump tariffs would drive up car prices for U.S. consumers, reducing demand and North American auto production and the ability to compete with China, which is “flooding” global markets with electric vehicles, Mr. Kingston said.

“This tariff is a tax. It’s a tax on consumers. It’s a tax on business. It is so significant that it makes it very challenging to be competitive in North America,” he said. “These tariffs are so high that it would make it very hard to operate not just in Canada and Mexico, but in the United States because you simply don’t have a U.S.-based supply chain for all of these inputs.”

Flavio Volpe, head of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, agrees there are no alternative sources in the U.S. for many made-in-Canada auto parts, at least in the short term.

This will mean Stellantis’s Jeep factory in Ohio, which gets about 40 per cent of its parts from Canada, will quickly see input costs balloon with the new tariff, he said. Similarly, the Chrysler minivans made at Stellantis’s plant in Windsor and the Chevrolet pickup trucks made in Oshawa, Ont., will suddenly cost U.S. buyers 25 per cent more.

“It’s really hard to justify any long-term run of making those cars,” Mr. Volpe said. This is bad news for the constellation of parts makers that surround every auto assembly plant in Ontario and the U.S.

“It’s all hand in glove,” he said. “If I’m not making a car or if I’m making fewer cars, then I’m buying fewer seats or I’m buying no seats. And if you’re buying the seats from a factory in London, Ont., you do not have another seat factory ready to go in Kentucky.”

As the industry waits to see if Mr. Trump will follow through on his tariff threat, Canadian officials have been planning a list of U.S. goods on which to apply retaliatory tariffs.

This is a worry for Nova Bus, a Volvo Group-owned transit bus maker that employs 1,400 people near Montreal. The company’s plants are focused on Canada, says Christos Kritsidimas, vice-president of legal and public affairs, but rely on a global supply chain of parts to produce diesel, electric and hybrid buses. If these parts are hit by Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, the business will face higher costs.

“I can’t tell you how we would get impacted, but what we do know is that trade wars don’t benefit anyone,” Mr. Kritsidimas said.

Monday January 20

U.S. markets closed (Martin Luther King Jr. Day)

World Economic Forum in Davos (through Friday)

Japan core machine orders and industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s construction investment for November.

(10:30 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations for Q4.

Also: U.S. presidential inauguration.

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Tuesday January 21

Germany ZEW Survey

U.K. employment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for December. The Street expects a decline of 0.4 per cent from November but a rise of 1.8 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: Capital One Financial Corp.; Charles Schwab Corp.; Interactive Brokers Group Inc.; Netflix Inc.; Prologis Inc.; United Airlines Holdings Inc.; 3M Co.

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Wednesday January 22

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indexes for December. Estimates are month-over-month increases of 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

(10:00 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for December.

(10:15 a.m. ET) ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel on “Unlocking Europe’s Potential” in Davos.

Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories; AGF Management Ltd.; Halliburton Co.; Johnson & Johnson; Kinder Morgan Inc.; Procter & Gamble Co.; Progressive Corp.; ServiceNow Inc.

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Thursday January 23

Japan trade balance

Bank of Japan monetary meeting and outlook report (through Friday).

Euro zone consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for November. The Street expects a rise of 0.4 per cent from November and 0.1 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Jan. 18. Estimate is 212,000, down 5,000 from the previous week.

Earnings include: American Airlines Group Inc.; CSX Corp.; GE Aerospace; Intuitive Surgical Inc.; NovaGold Resources Inc.; Texas Instruments Inc.; Union Pacific Corp.

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Friday January 24

Japan CPI and PMI

Euro zone PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour force survey and revisions (1987-2024)

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for December. Estimate is flat from November and up 0.2 per cent year-over-year.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for January.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for December.

Earnings include: American Express Co.; NextEra Energy Inc.; Verizon Communications Inc.

OPEC forecast on Wednesday world oil demand in 2026 will rise at a similar rate to this year, while reducing its figure for 2024 for a sixth time, following economic weakness in China, the world’s biggest importer of oil.

The 2026 forecast is in line with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ view oil use will rise for the next two decades, in contrast to the West’s International Energy Agency that predicts it will peak this decade as the world shifts to cleaner energy.

OPEC, in a monthly report, said demand will rise by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, a similar rate to the growth of 1.45 million bpd expected this year. The 2026 prediction is OPEC’s first in its monthly report.

“Transportation fuels are set to drive 2026 oil demand growth, with air travel expected to see continued expansion, as both international and domestic traffic continues to increase,” OPEC said in the report.

A table in the report put 2024 demand growth at 1.5 million bpd, compared with 1.61 million bpd listed in last month’s report, amounting to a sixth consecutive cut in the 2024 forecast. In July 2024, OPEC expected world demand would rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024.

OPEC’s view on demand is at the upper end of industry forecasts. Earlier on Wednesday, the IEA forecast slower world oil demand growth in 2025 of 1.05 million bpd.

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 0.8 per cent to $71.5-billion in November, helped by higher sales in the aerospace product and parts industry group and the petroleum and coal product subsector.

The agency says production of aerospace products and parts rose 9.3 per cent to $2.8-billion in November, as production increased in all major aerospace manufacturing plants. Sales of petroleum and coal products increased 2.6 per cent to $8.0-billion.

Manufacturing sales in constant dollars were unchanged in November.

In a separate report, Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, fell 0.2 per cent to $83.7-billion in November.

The decrease came as the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector dropped 5.5 per cent to $14.0-billion.

In volume terms, wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, fell 0.5 per cent in November.

Top Republican officials at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are poised to begin overhauling the agency’s cryptocurrency policies potentially as early as next week when President-elect Donald Trump takes power, said three people briefed on the matter.

Among the measures commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are weighing are initiating the process that would ultimately lead to guidance or rules clarifying when the agency considers a cryptocurrency to be a security, and reviewing some crypto enforcement cases pending in the courts, two of the people said.

Paul Atkins, Trump’s crypto-friendly pick for SEC chair and former agency commissioner, is widely expected to end a crypto crackdown led by President Biden’s Democratic SEC chair Gary Gensler, but it is unclear when the Senate will confirm him.

Gensler has said he will step down on Jan. 20 when Trump is sworn in.

As of next week, Peirce and Uyeda will hold the majority among the agency’s politically-appointed commissioners and are poised to get the ball rolling in the interim, the people said.

Like Atkins, the pair are crypto enthusiasts who have criticized Gensler’s tough stance on the industry and have in the past floated alternative crypto-friendly initiatives.

Peirce and Uyeda were aides to Atkins when he was at the SEC from 2002 to 2008 and the three have a good relationship, according to one of the sources and several other former SEC officials. The three have discussed potential crypto policy changes, said the sources who declined to be identified discussing private policy plans.

Peirce, Atkins and their representatives did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Uyeda did not respond to a request for comment.

Worried about fraud and market manipulation, Gensler’s SEC brought at least 83 crypto-related enforcement actions, suing multiple prominent companies like Coinbase and Kraken, agency data shows. In many cases, the SEC argued crypto tokens behave like securities and that the companies and their products should comply with SEC rules, although some allege fraud.

In the first few days of the new administration, the SEC is expected to begin a review of those court cases and potentially freeze some litigation that does not involve allegations of fraud, said two of the sources. Some of those cases could eventually be withdrawn.

Many of those defendants argue cryptocurrencies are more like commodities than securities and that it is not clear when SEC rules apply. They have called for the SEC to write new regulations which would clarify when a token is a security.

Peirce and Uyeda are expected to kick off the early stages of that rule-writing process, likely with a call for industry and public feedback, the two sources said.

Reuters and others have previously reported that the SEC is also likely to quickly rescind accounting guidance that has made it prohibitively costly for some listed companies to hold crypto tokens on behalf of third parties.

Trump, who courted crypto campaign cash with pledges to be a “crypto president,” is also expected to issue executive orders urging regulators to review their crypto policies, Reuters reported.

Bitcoin soared past $100,000 for the first time in December on excitement over the new crypto-friendly administration.

Still, even with a head start, reaching an agreement on crypto regulations could take months or longer, as could resolving complex enforcement actions that hinge on the definition of a security.

Dismissing dozens of enforcement actions would be unprecedented, and could set a risky precedent by politicizing the enforcement process, said Philip Moustakis, partner at Seward & Kissel and former SEC attorney.

In some cases, the court may object, said other lawyers.

One option for the agency would be to re-open settlement negotiations, said Robert Cohen, a partner at Davis Polk who previously worked in the SEC’s enforcement division.

Settlement talks, aimed at averting lengthy and public litigation, are the norm, but crypto companies say the SEC under Gensler has been unwilling to engage in substantive discussions.

Cohen added the new SEC leadership would likely continue to take a tough line on crypto fraud.

“I think the industry wants to see fraudsters or wrongdoers held accountable,” he added.