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• JPMorgan Chase on Wednesday topped estimates for fourth-quarter revenue and profit.
• The bank was helped by better-than-expected net interest income and fixed income trading and investment banking results.
• Profit rose 50% to $14 billion in the quarter as noninterest expenses fell 7% from a year earlier.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earnings Q4 2024

The consumer price index, an inflation gauge, rose 2.9% on an annual basis in December 2024. That’s up from 2.7% in November. Energy, food, new and used vehicles, car insurance and airline fares were among the contributors to the increase. There was some good news: “Core” CPI saw disinflation, as did shelter prices.

Here’s the inflation breakdown for December 2024 — in one chart

Monday January 13

Japanese markets closed

China aggregate yuan financing, new yuan loans and trade surplus

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. budget balance for December.

Earnings include: Cogeco Inc.; Cogeco Communications Inc.

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Tuesday January 14

Japan bank lending

(6 a.m. ET) U.S. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI final demand for December. The Street is forecasting a rise of 0.3 per cent from November and up 3.6 per cent year-over-year.

Earnings include: OrganiGram Holdings Inc.

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Wednesday January 15

Japan machine tool orders

Euro zone industrial production

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales and new orders for November. The Street is projecting a month-over-month rise of 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for November. Estimate is a decline of 0.5 per cent from October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for November. Estimate is a year-over-year increase of 9.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. CPI for December. Consensus is a rise of 0.3 per cent from November and up 2.9 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales and average prices for December. Estimates are year-over-year increases of 13.5 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for December. Estimate is a flat reading year-over-year.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Bank of NY Mellon; Citigroup Inc.; Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Wells Fargo & Co.

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Thursday January 16

Euro zone trade surplus

Germany CPI

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for December. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 4.7 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Jan. 11. Estimate is 212,000, up 11,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for December. Consensus is a month-over-month gain of 0.5 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices for December. Estimate is a rise of 0.2 per cent from November and up 2.2 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for January.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for November.

(12:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle speaks in Toronto.

Earnings include: Bank of America; Morgan Stanley; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; PPG Industries Inc.; Richelieu Hardware Ltd.; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.; Unitedhealth Group Inc.; U.S. Bancorp

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Friday January 17

China GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

Euro zone CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian international securities transactions for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s household and mortgage credit for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for December. The Street expects an annualized rate rise of 2.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for December. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 2.2 per cent.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for December.

Earnings include: Schlumberger NV; State Street Corp.; Truist Financial Corp.

U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 per cent as the labour market ended the year on a solid footing, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts this year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 212,000 in November, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 160,000 jobs following a previously reported 227,000 surge in November. Estimates for December’s job count ranged from 120,000 to 200,000 positions added.

Hiring has slowed in the aftermath of the U.S. central bank’s hefty rate hikes in 2022 and 2023. Nonetheless, labour market resilience, mostly reflecting historically low layoffs, is powering the economy by supporting consumer spending via higher wages.

The economy is expanding at well above the 1.8 per cent pace that Fed officials regard as the noninflationary growth rate. Fears are, however, mounting that pledges by President-elect Donald Trump to impose or massively raise tariffs on imports and deport millions of undocumented immigrants could derail momentum.

Those worries were evident in minutes of the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 policy meeting published on Wednesday, which noted “most participants remarked that … the Committee could take a careful approach in considering” further cuts.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3 per cent last month after gaining 0.4 per cent in November. In the 12 months through December, wages advanced 3.9 per cent after rising 4.0 per cent in November.

While business sentiment perked up following Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory on hopes of tax cuts and a less-stringent regulatory environment, economists do not expect a surge in hiring in the near term.

There have also been no signs in business surveys that companies are planning to boost head counts.

The fall in the unemployment rate was from 4.2 per cent in November.

The government revised the seasonally adjusted household survey data, from which the unemployment rate is derived, for the last five years.

Loosening labour market conditions have been underscored by steady rises in the number of people who have permanently lost their jobs, as well as the median duration of unemployment since September to a near three-year high of 10.5 weeks in November.

That is consistent with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, showing the hires rate falling back to levels seen early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Fed last month cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by another quarter-point to the 4.25 per cent-4.50 per cent range, bringing the total of reductions since it kicked off its easing cycle in September to 100 basis points.

But it projected only two quarter-point rate cuts this year compared to the four it had forecast in September, acknowledging the economy’s endurance and still-elevated inflation. The policy rate was hiked by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023.

Oil prices surged on Friday and were on track for a third straight week of gains as traders focused on potential supply disruptions from more sanctions on Russia.

Brent crude futures gained $2.50, or 3.3 per cent, to $79.42 a barrel by 1248 GMT, reaching their highest in more than three months. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced $2.39, or 3.2 per cent, to $76.31.

The United States will impose some of the harshest sanctions on the Russian oil industry to date, designating 180 vessels, dozens of traders, two major oil companies and some top Russian oil executives, a document seen by Reuters said.

The document, purported to be from the U.S. Treasury, was being circulated among traders in Europe and Asia. Reuters could not verify the veracity of the document.

Ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, expectations have been mounting that President Joe Biden’s administration will tighten sanctions against Russia and Iran, at a time when oil stockpiles remain low.

“That would be the farewell gift of the Biden administration,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. Existing and possible further sanctions, as well as market expectations of draws on fuel inventories because of cold weather, are driving prices higher, he added.

The U.S. weather bureau expects central and eastern parts of the country to experience below-average temperatures. Many regions in Europe have also been hit by extreme cold and are likely to continue to experience a chillier than usual start to the year.

“We anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2025, primarily boosted by … demand for heating oil, kerosene and LPG,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Friday.

The premium on the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August this week, potentially indicating supply tightness at a time of rising demand.

Inflation worries are also boosting crude oil prices, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said. Investors are concerned about Trump’s planned tariffs, which could drive inflation higher. A popular trade to hedge against rising consumer prices is through buying oil futures.

Oil prices have rallied despite the U.S. dollar strengthening for six straight weeks, making crude oil more expensive outside the United States.

Canada’s economy added nearly quadruple the number of jobs forecasted for December and the unemployment rate surprisingly ticked down to 6.7 per cent, data showed on Friday, giving the central bank breathing room to determine the pace of further rate cuts.

The economy added a net 90,900 jobs last month, largely full-time work, according to Statistics Canada data. The job gains – third time in the past four months – were spread across several industries, the agency said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 25,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate would rise to 6.9 per cent from the near eight year high of 6.8 per cent in November. In December, the unemployment rate fell for core-aged men and for men aged 55 and older.

The robust jobs data show the economy ended the fourth quarter on a high note, easing the pressure on the Bank of Canada to continue rapid rate cuts to spur growth.

The central bank slashed its key policy rate by 50 basis points last month to help address soft economic growth, bringing the cumulative lowering of the borrowing rate to 175 bps since June.

The bank, however, did indicate further rate cuts would be more gradual. Its next rate announcement is on Jan. 29, when money markets see a roughly 70 per cent chance of a 25 bp cut.

The average hourly wage growth for permanent employees slowed to an annual rate of 3.7 per cent from 3.9 per cent in November, Statistics Canada said. The closely-watched wage growth rate was the slowest since April 2022.

In further sign of the job market firming up, Canada’s employment rate, or the proportion of the population who are employed, increased for the first since January 2023 percentage.

Employment in the goods sector increased by a net 22,500 jobs, mostly in manufacturing. The services sector gained a net 68,400 jobs, led by educational services and transportation and warehousing.

Canada’s economic growth prospects have in recent months been clouded by the threat of tariffs from incoming U.S. President Donald Trump. On Friday, the statistics agency noted that 8.8 per cent of Canadian workers, or around 1.8 million people, in 2024 were in industries that were dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports.

For Q3 2025, compared to Q3 2024¹:

• Net revenue increased 11.5% to $728.7 million, with comparable sales² growth of 6.6%
• United States net revenue increased 23.6% to $403.7 million, comprising 55.4% of net revenue
• Retail net revenue increased 10.3% to $486.6 million
• eCommerce net revenue increased 14.0% to $242.1 million, comprising 33.2% of net revenue
• Gross profit margin² increased 430 bps to 45.8% from 41.5%
• Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of net revenue increased 90 bps to 29.6% from 28.7%
• Adjusted EBITDA² increased 48.7% to $136.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA² as a percentage of net revenue increased 470 bps to 18.7% from 14.0%
• Net income increased 71.9% to $74.1 million, or 10.2% as a percentage of net revenue. Net income per diluted share was $0.63 per share, compared to $0.38 per share
• Adjusted Net Income² increased 57.5% to $83.0 million. Adjusted Net Income per Diluted Share² was $0.71 per share, compared to $0.47 per share

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aritzia-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-2025-financial-results-812041408.html

• Microsoft expects to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025 on the construction of data centers that can handle artificial intelligence workloads, the company said in a Friday blog post. 
• Over half of Microsoft’s $80 billion in spending will take place in the U.S., Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith wrote.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/03/microsoft-expects-to-spend-80-billion-on-ai-data-centers-in-fy-2025.html

The Canadian dollar CADUSD -0.31%decrease weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday on the first trading day of 2025, but fared better than some other major currencies as oil prices rose and data showed Canada’s factory sector expanding for a fourth straight month.

The loonie was trading 0.2 per cent lower at 1.4410 to the U.S. dollar, or 69.40 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.4370 to 1.4442. Last month, the currency touched a near five-year low at 1.4467.

“The USD is starting 2025 off as it appears likely to continue, at least for the next few months, as it stretches gains versus the majors,” Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, said in a note.

The U.S. dollar index jumped to a two-year high as the greenback posted gains of 1 per cent or more against the euro and sterling on expectations that U.S. economic growth will beat peers.

The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was up 2.2 per cent at $73.29 a barrel after a pledge by Chinese President Xi Jinping to promote economic growth.

The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in December from 52.0 in November, its highest level since February 2023 and the fourth straight month above the 50.0 no-change mark. It was helped by inventory accumulation by U.S. clients in anticipation of trade tariffs.

Still, the threat of U.S. tariffs and domestic political uncertainty has contributed to elevated levels of implied volatility in the Canadian dollar options market, Osborne said.

Implied volatility on an at-the-money options contract to buy or sell Canadian dollars against the U.S. dollar in three months was trading at roughly 7 per cent, its highest level since April 2023. Investors and companies use options to hedge their currency exposure.

Canadian bond yields were little changed across the curve, with the 10-year at 3.235 per cent.