Category: Uncategorized

Monday January 6

China, Japan, U.K. and Euro zone services and composite PMI

Germany CPI

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for December.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for November. The Street expects a month-over-month decline of 0.4 per cent.

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Tuesday January 7

Euro zone CPI and jobless rate

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for November.

(10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. global supply chain pressure index for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December.

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Wednesday January 8

China aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

Japan consumer confidence

Euro zone consumer and economic confidence

Germany factory orders and retail sales

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for December. The Street is projecting a monthly gain of 130,000 (versus a 146,000 increase in November).

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed minutes for Dec. 17-18 meeting are released.

(3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for November.

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Thursday January 9

U.S. stock markets closed (national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter)

U.S. bond markets close at 2 p.m. ET.

China CPI and PPI

Japan real cash earnings

ECB economic bulletin

Germany industrial production and trade surplus

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Jan. 4. Estimate is 225,000, up 14,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale inventories for November.

Earnings include: Artizia Inc.

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Friday January 10

Japan household spending

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for December. Estimate is a rise of 0.05 per cent, or 10,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate increasing 0.1 per cent to 6.9 per cent and average hourly wages up 3.8 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian building permits for November. Estimate is a month-over-month increase of 1.0 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for December. The Street is forecasting 153,000 with the unemployment rate remaining 4.2 per cent and average hourly wages up 0.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January.

Earnings include: Constellation Brands Inc.; Delta Airlines Inc.; Tilray Inc.; Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.

Rogers Communications Inc. RCI-B-T +1.76%increase has slightly lowered its revenue expectations for 2024, blaming weaker performance in its media business during the final months of the year.

The telecom company now expects its service revenue will grow 7 per cent this year, down from initial guidance of 8 to 10 per cent, it said in a news release Friday morning.

The guidance reduction reflects a difficult year for the sector, with mounting competition, high debt levels and slowing growth putting pressure on company valuations. Shares of Rogers on the Toronto Stock Exchange finished 2024 down 29 per cent.

Rogers’s media business, which includes sports, television and radio programming, accounts for about 10 per cent of the company’s overall revenue, which was up 11 per cent in the third quarter. Higher revenues from subscribers and the Toronto Blue Jays were offset by costs related to renovations at the Rogers Centre stadium in Toronto.

The guidance drop likely represents a reduction of $50-million to $75-million in media revenue, translating to generally flat growth year-over-year, said Royal Bank of Canada analyst Drew McReynolds. Meanwhile, the company’s other business lines – wireless and cable – held steady.

“Bigger picture, we continue to believe improved wireless and cable pricing discipline by Rogers and all operators will be the key to delivering positive revenue growth in 2025,” Mr. McReynolds said in a Friday morning note to investors.

Rogers has invested in building up its digital television offerings as Canadians increasingly turn to streaming platforms for their content.

Last year, the company signed deals with Warner Bros. to license television content and with U.S. cable giant Comcast Corp. to run its television programming aggregator on Rogers devices. Comcast itself said in November that it planned to spin off most of its cable television networks into a separate publicly traded company, in what analysts saw as a reaction to the long-term pressures of cord-cutting.

Rogers also doubled down on sports content last year, entering a $4.7-billion agreement to buy BCE Inc.’s 37.5-per-cent stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment and become the company’s majority shareholder.

In its last quarter, BCE BCE-T posted a $2.1-billion writedown of its television and radio properties, which it said reflected a further decline in advertising demand. Speaking to analysts, chief executive officer Mirko Bibic said the company was diligently managing declining segments and instead investing in growth markets, such as fibre internet in the U.S. Last February, Bell sold 45 radio stations and made television newscast cuts as part of a company-wide restructuring that slashed a total of 4,800 jobs.

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“You’ve got to align your cost structure in those segments that are declining to align the cost to the revenues,” Mr. Bibic said. “If some assets are going to perpetually decline, we might shed those lines of business.”

While retail internet is expected to remain a revenue driver for all telecom companies, Tim Casey, an analyst for the Bank of Montreal, expects that growth rate to decline. Internet revenues have grown about 7 per cent annually over past two decades, he said in a December note to investors, but he expects that to fall to 5 per cent in the coming years.

In October, RBC’s Mr. McReynolds told investors that television cord-cutting remains a meaningful drag on wireline revenue for the sector. He estimated that Rogers’s satellite television in particular – reported under the company’s cable division – likely constituted the majority of the company’s 2-per-cent cable revenue decline in its second quarter last year.

Canadian stocks tumbled on a severe bout of selling pressure on Wednesday, pushing the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index to a six-week low, as political uncertainty and fears of tariff war rendered the mood bearish.

Selling pressure gathered greater force past mid afternoon after the Federal Reserve signaled fewer interest rate cuts next year than earlier expected. The Fed, which cut interest rate by 25 basis points as widely expected, but the central bank’s latest projections suggest rates will be in a range of 3.75 to 4% by the end of 2025 compared to the range of 3.25 to 3.5% forecast in September.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index settled at 24,557.00, losing 562.71 points or 2.24%, one of the biggest single-session drop in several months.

Mirroring widespread selling, all the sectoral indices closed in negative territory today. The biggest loser was the Information Technology Capped Index, which went down by 4.46%.

The Materials Capped Index fell 3.46%, the Healthcare index lost 2.95% and the Real Estate index closed down 2.57%. The Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Energy and Utilities indices lost 1.84

Hut 8 Corp (HUT.TO) tanked 11%. Shopify Inc (SHOP.TO) closed down 7.3%. Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.TO), Celestica Inc (CLS.TO), Docebo Inc (DCBO.TO), TerraVest Industries (TVK.TO), Dayforce (DAY.TO), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO) and Bombardier Inc (BBD.B.TO) lost 4 to 6.2%.

Colliers International (CIGI.TO), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO), Descartes Systems Group (DSG.TO), Kinaxis Inc (KXS.TO), TFI International (TFII.TO), West Fraser Timber (WFG.TO), goeasy (GSY.TO), Dollarama Inc (DOL.TO), Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) and Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV.TO) closed down 2 to 3.5%.

Organigram Holdings Inc. (OGI.TO) tumbled nearly 8%. The company reported a narrower net loss for the fourth quarter, helped by increased revenue and a decline in costs. For the three-month period to September 30, the firm recorded a net loss of C$5.433 million, compared with a loss of C$26.595 million, registered for the same period last year.

Torex Gold Resources (TXG.TO) climbed more than 7%. Sangoma Technologies (STC.TO), GFL Environmental (GFL.TO), Quebecore Inc (QBR.B.TO), Boyd Group Services (BYD.TO), Canadian Tire Corporation (CTC.TO) and K-Bro Linen (KBL.TO) closed with sharp to moderate gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank deeper into the history books on Wednesday, with the index posting its 10th straight losing day as a disappointing rate outlook by the Federal Reserve rocked the stock market.

The Dow lost 1,123.03 points, or 2.58%, to 42,326.87, for its worst losing streak since an 11-day slide in 1974. The Wednesday decline was its worst since August and only the second time it lost 1,000 points this year in one session. The S&P 500 lost 2.95% to 5,872.16 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 3.56% to 19,392.69 with losses intensifying into the close of trading.

The central bank reduced its overnight borrowing rate by a quarter point to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, as expected. However, the Fed indicated Wednesday afternoon it would only cut rates twice in 2025, fewer than the four cuts given in its last forecast. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s move to cut rates in recent months allows it to “be more cautious as we consider more adjustments to our policy rate.”

Before Wednesday, traders were hoping the Fed would stay aggressive with rate cuts in 2025, fueling the bull market further. Treasury yields jumped following the Fed’s cautious outlook, pressuring share prices. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed above 4.50%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

• The Federal Open Market Committee cut its overnight borrowing rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022.
• “Today was a closer call but we decided it was the right call,” Chair Jerome Powell said.
• The Fed indicated that it probably would only lower twice more in 2025, according to the closely watched “dot plot” matrix of individual members’ future rate expectations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/18/fed-rate-decision-december-2024-.html

U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose in the week ending December 13, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 934,000 barrels to 421 million barrels in the week, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6 million-barrel draw.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 108,000 barrels last week, the EIA said.

Refinery crude runs fell by 48,000 barrels per day in the week, the EIA said.

Refinery utilization rates fell by 0.6 percentage points to 91.8 per cent.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week to 222 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1 million-barrel build.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week to 118.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.

Net U.S. crude imports fell by 1.13 million barrels per day, EIA said.

Monday December 16

China industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

Japan core machine orders and PMI

Euro zone PMI and labour costs

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for November. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 4.5 per cent.

(9 a.m. ET) Canadian existing home sales and average prices for November. Estimates are year-over-year increases of 30.0 per cent and 8.0 per cent, respectively.

(9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for November. Estimate is a decline of 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for December (preliminary reading)

(3:20 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade.

Also: Canada’s federal fall fiscal update

Earnings include: Quipt Home Medical Corp.

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Tuesday December 17

Euro zone trade surplus

Germany business climate

U.K. employment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for November. The Street is expecting a rise of 0.1 per cent from October and up 2.0 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian population estimates for Q3.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for November. Estimate is a flat reading month-over-month and year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for November. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.5 per cent from October.

(9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production for November. Consensus is a month-over-month increase of 0.3 per cent with capacity utilization up 0.2 per cent to 77.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for December.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for October.

Also: U.S. Fed meeting begins

Earnings include: Groupe Dynamite Inc.

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Wednesday December 18

Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (through Thursday)

Euro zone and U.K. CPI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian construction investment for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for November. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 2.6 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for November. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 0.8 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. current account deficit for Q3.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement and summary of economy projections with chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing to follow.

Earnings include: General Mills Inc.; Lennar Corp.; Micron Technology Inc.

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Thursday December 19

Germany consumer confidence

Bank of England monetary policy announcement

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey: job vacancy rate for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s household and mortgage credit for October.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Dec. 14. Estimate is 228,000, down 14,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP price index for Q3. The Street expects annualized rate increases of 2.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for November. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 3.3 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. leading indicator for November.

Earnings include: Accenture PLC; BlackBerry Ltd.; Cintas Corp.; FedEx Corp.; Nike Inc.

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Friday December 20

Japan CPI

Euro zone consumer confidence

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian retail sales for October. Consensus is an increase of 0.7 per cent from September.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for November.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for November. The Street is projecting month-over-month rises of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for November. Consensus is a gain of 0.2 per cent from October and 2.9 per cent from the same period a year ago.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December.

Earnings include: Carnival Corp.

• The producer price index increased 0.4% for November, higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.2%.
• However, excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.2%, meeting the forecast.
• First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, versus the 220,000 forecast and up 17,000 from the prior period.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/producer-price-index-november-2024-.html

Published Wed, Dec 11 20249:22 PM EST Updated 32 Min Ago

Oil prices fell slightly Thursday as a forecast for ample supply in the oil market offset optimism stemming from rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut.

Brent crude futures fell 11 cents to close at $73.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 27 cents to settle at $70.02. Both benchmarks rose by more than $1 on Wednesday.

The International Energy Agency said it expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied next year, even as it revised its demand outlook for next year up slightly. OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month on Wednesday and by the largest amount yet.

“They still call for a massively oversupplied market, but this has declined slightly with their demand revision,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. “The market is waiting for more news on fiscal measures around the world, I wouldn’t expect big price moves in the near term.”

In the U.S., inflation rose slightly, in line with economists’ expectations. Investors are broadly expecting another rate cut from the Federal Reserve, spurring some optimism about economic growth and energy demand.

“The inflation report creates a lot of comfort. It could have been better, but it seems to be low enough for the Fed to reduce rates at the next meeting,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

In the world’s top oil consumer, the United States, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by more than expected last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Weak demand, particularly in top importer China, and non-OPEC+ supply growth were two factors behind the move. However, investors anticipate a rise in Chinese demand, after Beijing unveiled plans this week to adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in 2025, which could spur oil demand.

Global oil demand rose at a slower-than-expected rate this month, but has remained resilient, analysts at JPMorgan said in a note on Thursday.

“Growth (in oil demand) over the past week has been tempered by a slight reduction in jet fuel consumption across much of the world,” the note read.

Chinese crude imports also grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14% from a year earlier.

The market will now watch for cues on interest rate cuts by the Fed next week.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after European Union ambassadors agreed to a 15th package of sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine. They targeted the “shadow fleet” of ships that has aided Russia in bypassing the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by the G7 on Russian seaborne crude oil in 2022.

The Kremlin said that reports of a possible tightening of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil suggested the administration of President Joe Biden wanted to leave a difficult legacy for U.S.-Russia relations.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that the U.S. was continuing to look for creative ways to reduce Russia’s oil revenue, adding that lower global demand for oil created an opportunity for more sanctions.