The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive time on Wednesday and said that it is now putting more emphasis on downside risks to economic growth, rather than focusing mainly on the risk of a rebound in inflation.
The widely anticipated move brings the bank’s policy rate to 4.5 per cent from 4.75 per cent. This is the second cut in a long-awaited monetary policy easing cycle, and comes after the bank raised interest rates 10 times in 2022 and 2023 to tackle the most serious bout of inflation in a generation.
Price pressures have eased over the past two years, as global supply chains have improved, economic growth has stalled and restrictive interest rates have curbed consumer spending. That’s led the bank to adopt a more balanced approach to monetary policy in its latest rate decision, teeing up additional interest rate cuts later this year.
“As inflation gets closer to the 2-per-cent target, the risk that inflation comes in higher than expected has to be increasingly balanced against the risk that the economy and inflation could be weaker than expected,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said, according to the prepared text of his press conference opening statement.
He said that it is “reasonable” to expect additional rate cuts if inflation continues trending lower, as the central bank is forecasting. But he said that the bank’s governing council will be “taking our monetary policy decisions one at a time.”
The annual rate of consumer price index inflation has been below 3 per cent since the start of year, coming in at 2.7 per cent in June, down from a peak of 8.1 per cent in 2022. The bank’s updated forecast sees inflation falling below 2.5 per cent in the second half of the year and settling “sustainably” at 2 per cent next year.
Muted demand for goods and services, alongside rising unemployment and a weakening labour market, is pulling inflation lower.
However, there are still some areas where price pressures remain, including for rent, mortgage interest costs and services that are sensitive to wage increases. And the bank warned geopolitical turmoil, trade disruptions and political risks, such as new tariffs, could put upward pressure on inflation.
“We are increasingly confident that the ingredients to bring inflation back to target are in place. But the push-pull of these opposing forces means the decline in inflation will likely be gradual, and there could be setbacks along the way,” Mr. Macklem said.
So far, inflation has returned to normal levels without the Canadian economy falling into a recession. That looks like a soft-landing, which many economists thought was impossible a year ago.
However, the country’s positive gross domestic product growth is largely a result of a rapid increase in population. On a per-person basis, GDP has declined for the past year-and-a-half.
GDP growth came in weaker-than-expected in the first half of the year. In its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), published Wednesday, the bank chalked this up to slowing demand for vehicles and travel, as well as muted consumer spending on discretionary goods as households put more money towards servicing their debt.
The MPR sees economic growth picking up in the second half of the year and through 2025. Annual GDP growth is expected to be 1.2 per cent this year, before rising to 2.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.4 per cent in 2026.
“This reflects stronger exports and a recovery in household spending as borrowing costs ease. Business investment is also expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and residential investment is forecast to grow robustly,” Mr. Macklem said.
“Over all, with the economy strengthening, excess supply will be absorbed next year and into 2026.”
Wednesday’s rate cut will be welcomed by homeowners with variable rate mortgages, which track changes in the central bank’s policy rate. Interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages, which are based on yields in bond markets, may move less.
Either way, housing affordability will remain stretched until interest rates fall further, and analysts are not expecting an immediate rebound in the housing market.