January Nymex natural gas (NGF26) on Monday closed up +0.321 (+7.35%),
January nat-gas on Monday rallied sharply to a 3-week high on the outlook for colder US temperatures, which are expected to boost heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that colder-than-normal temperatures are expected across the Northeast for January 3-7.
Nat-gas prices remained sharply higher after weekly storage figures from the EIA showed nat-gas inventories fell -166 bcf for the week ended December 19, a larger decline than the five-year average of -110 bcf for the week.
Higher US nat-gas production is bearish for prices. The EIA on December 9 raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production to 107.74 bcf/day from its November estimate of 107.70 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Monday was 113.7 bcf/day (+6.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Monday was 103.8 bcf/day (+34.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Monday were 19.8 bcf/day (+5.3% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported on December 10 that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended December 6 rose +2.3% y/y to 85,330 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending December 6 rose +2.84% y/y to 4,291,665 GWh.
Monday’s weekly EIA report, delayed from last Thursday, was slightly supportive for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 19 fell by -166 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -169 bcf but larger than the 5-year weekly average draw of -110 bcf. As of December 19, nat-gas inventories were down -3.3% y/y and were -0.7% below their 5-year seasonal average, signaling tight nat-gas supplies. As of December 27, gas storage in Europe was 64% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 75% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Tuesday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending December 26 remained unchanged at 127, just below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
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