Economic Calendar: Sept 18 – Sept 22

Markets will be laser focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week, which is expected to keep the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% after it was raised by 25 basis points in the last meeting. The bigger unknown is what the Fed will do at its next get together in November. Investors will be examining the policy statement, the Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on that front.

In Canada, the headliner will be August inflation on Tuesday. Economists are not expecting a lot of relief in consumer prices.

“It should echo the themes of the U.S. effort—a meaty headline, juiced by gas prices, and sticky core inflation,” BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said in a note Friday. “We expect the headline result to land just north of the U.S. at a yearly pace of almost 4%, an unhelpful result for taming inflation expectations.”

Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki will speak the same day as CPI, and then the meeting deliberations from September 6 will be released just minutes before the Fed decision. “The latter may shine some light on how close a call the ‘skip’ decision was, and what is key for the next decision. Perhaps helping to solve the Canadian case, retail sales will be released on Friday, including a preliminary estimate for August. We suspect that sales saw moderate gains over the summer, despite consumer sentiment reportedly swooning. Even with unemployment rising, forest fires intruding, and gas prices reviving, it looks like the dog still wasn’t barking,” said Mr. Porter said.

Here’s the daily rundown of the economic reports and corporate earnings that will be grabbing the market’s attention in the week ahead:

Monday, September 18

815 am ET: Canadian housing starts for August. Consensus is for 1% drop to an annualized rate of 252,500

830 am ET: Canadian industrial product price index and raw materials price index for August

830 am ET: Canadian construction investment for July

10 am ET: U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index

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Tuesday, September 19

Euro area consumer prices for August

830 am ET: Canadian consumer price index for August. Consensus is for a 0.2% rise from the previous month, or up 3.8% year over year

830 am ET: Canadian household credit for July

830 am ET: U.S. housing starts and building permits.

145 pm ET: BoC Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki speaks at the University of Regina

Earnings include: AutoZone Inc.

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Wednesday, September 20

Inflation reports from Germany and UK

130 pm ET: Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations for the Sept. 6 policy decision

2 pm ET: FOMC policy announcement and Summary of Economic Projections

230 pm ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing

Earnings include: FedEx Corp.; General Mills Inc.

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Thursday, September 21

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting through Friday

830 am ET: Canada’s new housing price index for August. BMO expects a 1% year over year decline.

830 am ET: U.S. initial jobless claims for previous week.

830 am ET: U.S. current account deficit

830 am ET: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index

10 am ET: U.S. existing home sales.

10 am ET: U.S. leading indicator

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Friday, September 22

Japan consumer prices and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes

Euro area purchasing managers index; UK consumer confidence, retail sales and PMIs

830 am ET: Canadian retail sales for July. Consensus is for a rise of 0.4%, accelerating from June’s 0.1% – and a rise of 0.3% when excluding autos.

945 am ET: S&P Global PMIs for September.