Natural Gas Price forecast for winter 2025/2026 (ChatGPT)

Here’s a tight, sourced outlook for winter 2025/26 U.S. natural gas (Henry Hub) with what’s priced in now and the main swing risks.

What’s priced in today (futures strip)

As of today’s quotes, the CME winter strip implies a modest run-up into Jan and easing by March:

• Dec ’25: ~$3.84
• Jan ’26: ~$4.12
• Feb ’26: ~$3.90
• Mar ’26: ~$3.57. CME Group

Base-case takeaway: the market is discounting a $3.6–$4.2/MMBtu winter, peaking in January.

Fundamentals setting the tone

• High starting storage: EIA shows 3,882 Bcf for the week ending Oct 24 and projects near-record start-of-winter inventories and an end-of-withdrawal level around 1,990 Bcf (≈8% above 5-yr avg) if weather is normal—this dampens spike risk. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
• STEO price path: EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook has Henry Hub near $4.10 in Jan ’26, up from sub-$3 in Sep ’25 thanks to seasonal demand, but softer than prior forecasts due to stronger production/storage. U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Weather setup: NOAA’s Winter Outlook (issued Oct 16) leans La Niña with EC/“equal chances” of below/near/above-normal temps for much of the Lower-48 and wetter PNW/Northern Plains—i.e., not a strongly bullish cold signal nationally. Climate Prediction Center+1
• LNG exports: U.S. LNG capacity is ramping through 2025-26 (Plaquemines P1/P2, Corpus Christi Stage 3; Golden Pass commissioning starting Q4 ’25). Adds winter demand pull but timing is staggered. Riviera Maritime Media+3U.S. Energy Information Administration+3U.S. Energy Information Administration+3
• Global backdrop: IEA’s Gas 2025 notes comfortable near-term balances with big LNG additions coming, curbing extreme upside unless winter is harsh. iea.blob.core.windows.net+1

My forecast (Henry Hub, Dec–Mar average)

• Base case (most likely): $3.60–$4.20/MMBtu average, peak days in late Dec–Jan if cold shots line up. Supported by high storage + only moderately cold NOAA outlook; aligns with the strip and EIA STEO. CME Group+2U.S. Energy Information Administration+2
• Bull case (colder-than-normal or LNG ramp faster): brief spikes into $5–$6 possible on Arctic outbreaks or LNG outages flipping to heavy draws—but persistence would require multi-week cold across major load centers. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1
• Bear case (warm winter / production surprises): $3.00–$3.50 if DJF temps skew warm and storage stays well above average. U.S. Energy Information Administration+1

What would change the call quickly

1. Weather: Early-season cold in the Midwest/Northeast (watch NOAA weekly updates) → shifts toward bull case. Climate Prediction Center
2. LNG timing: Faster commissioning at Golden Pass and steady Plaquemines/Corpus ramp → stronger winter baseload demand. Delays do the opposite. argusmedia.com+1
3. Storage trajectory: EIA weekly prints materially below 5-yr → tightens balances; persistent above-avg → caps rallies. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Practical read-across (Canada)

If you hedge off Henry Hub, expect AECO basis to move with pipeline/maintenance dynamics; directional winter view still anchors to HH.