OPEC+ discusses 2027 baselines, may agree to July output hike this week, sources say

OPEC+ is discussing a mechanism for setting baselines for its 2027 production at a meeting on Wednesday, delegates said, while separate talks due on Saturday could agree a further accelerated oil output hike for July.

The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has been discussing new baselines – production levels from which each member makes cuts or increases – for the past few years.

Baseline issues are controversial because some members such as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have increased their oil production capacity, pressing the case for higher quotas, while others such as African members have seen declines.

The 22-member group on Wednesday may adopt a mechanism to help establish the baseline assessment for 2027, two of the delegates said. The Wednesday meeting will not change output policy, sources said while the talks were under way.

On Saturday, the eight OPEC+ members who are in the process of gradually raising output are set to meet and may agree an output hike for July of 411,000 barrels a day, the same as in May and June, the delegates said.

Why Canadian energy is a secret bargain, spurring a hostile takeover bid in the oil sands

All sources declined to be identified by name due to the sensitivity of the matter.

OPEC+ has agreed three layers of output cuts since 2022. Two of these are in place until the end of 2026 and one is currently being unwound by the eight members.

The 2027 baselines in theory could feature in production policy when all output cuts currently in place expire.

Oil prices fell to a four-year low in April below $60 a barrel after OPEC+ said it was accelerating its output hike in May and as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs raised concerns of global economic weakness. Since then it has recovered to about $65.

Earlier this month, sources told Reuters that the eight countries, in addition to an output hike for July, may unwind the remainder of the most recent cut by the end of October.