Key Market Focus: September 14–18, 2026

TSX priorities

• WTI and Middle East: Watch Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea developments after WTI’s 9.4% weekly surge. Continued strength benefits energy producers but hurts consumer and transportation companies.
• Canada CPI: Inflation above the previous 3.0% YoY would reduce expectations for BoC easing and pressure rate-sensitive sectors.
• Fed decision: A rate increase or hawkish guidance would likely pressure Shopify, technology, gold and long-duration assets.
• U.S.–Canada tariffs: Monitor further retaliation or negotiation signals; Magna, Canadian Tire, railways and manufacturers remain exposed.
• Gold and copper: Higher yields and a firmer U.S. dollar are downside risks; geopolitical escalation offers support.

Base view

Expect a volatile, event-driven week. Energy could retain relative strength, while technology, financials and consumer sectors remain sensitive to rates. This view would improve if oil falls below US$95, inflation softens and central banks adopt less-hawkish guidance.