Author: Consultant

Monday June 2

China PMI

Japan and Euro zone manufacturing PMI

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P global manufacturing PMI for May.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P global manufacturing PMI for May.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for May.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for April.

(1 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell gives opening remarks at International Finance Divisions conference.

Also: U.S. and Canadian auto sales for May

Earnings include: Campbell Soup Co.

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Tuesday June 3

Euro zone CPI and jobless rate

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April.

Earnings include: CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.; Dollar General Corp.; Ferguson Enterprises; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.; Snowline Gold Corp.

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Wednesday June 4

Japan and euro zone services and composite PMI

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for May.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour productivity for Q1.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for May.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement with press conference to follow.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services/Composite PMI for May.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for May.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Descartes Systems Group Inc.; Dollar Tree Inc.; GameStop Corp.; Northwest Co. Inc.; Transcontinental Inc.

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Thursday June 5

ECB monetary policy meeting

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s merchandise trade balance for April.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of May 31. Estimate is 236,000, down 4,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity for Q1. The Street expects an annualized rate decline of 0.7 per cent with unit labour costs rising 5.7 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for April.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. global supply chain pressure index for May.

Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Enghouse Systems Ltd.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.; Rupert Resources Ltd.; Saputo Inc.

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Friday June 6

China foreign reserves

Japan household spending

Euro zone retail sales and real GDP

Germany industrial production and trade surplus

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for May. The Street expects a drop of 0.1 per cent, or 17,500 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.0 per cent from 6.9 per cent and average hourly wages rising 3.2 per cent year-over-year.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for May. Consensus is a gain of 130,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 4.2 per cent and average hourly wages up 0.3 per cent sequentially and 3.7 per cent from the same period a year ago.

(3 p.m. ET) U.S. consumer credit for April.

• A federal appeals court granted the Trump administration’s request to temporarily pause a lower-court ruling that struck down most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
• The administration had told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that it might seek “emergency relief” from the Supreme Court.
• Trump officials including Peter Navarro and Stephen Miller heaped criticism on the trade court judges following their ruling.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/blocked-trump-tariffs-trade-court-appeal.html

Oil prices were steady on Friday and headed for a second consecutive weekly loss, as investors weigh a potentially larger OPEC+ output hike for July, and uncertainty spreads around U.S. tariff policy after the latest courtroom twist.

Brent crude futures fell by 18 cents, or 0.28 per cent, to US$63.97 a barrel by 9:08 a.m. ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 18 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to US$60.76 a barrel.

The Brent July futures contract is due to expire on Friday. The more liquid August contract was trading 33 cents lower, or 0.5 per cent, at US$63.02 per barrel.

At these levels, the front-month benchmark contracts were headed for weekly losses over 1 per cent.

Price moves dipped into negative territory after Reuters reported that OPEC+ may discuss an increase in July output larger than the 411,000 barrels per day that the group had made for May and June.

“The oil price would probably only come under greater pressure if the oil-producing countries were to increase their production even more than in previous months or give indications that there will be similarly high production increases in the following months,” Commerzbank analysts said earlier on Friday in a note, published before the news.

The potential hike comes as the global surplus has widened to 2.2 million barrels per day, likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance, said JPMorgan analysts in a note, adding they expect prices to remain within the current range before easing into the high US$50s by year-end.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs were expected to remain in effect after a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them on Thursday, reversing a trade court’s decision a day earlier to put an immediate block on the sweeping duties.

Oil prices were down more than 1 per cent on Thursday.

The appeals court’s decision pushed Brent to the bottom of its recent tight range, Investec’s head of commodities Callum Macpherson said.

Oil prices have lost more than 10 per cent since Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2.

Also pressuring prices, U.S. consumer spending slowed in April, according to data published on Friday.

Canada’s economy in the first quarter grew faster than expected, data showed on Friday, primarily driven by exports as companies in the United States rushed to stockpile before tariffs by President Donald Trump.

But an increase in imports that led to inventory build-up, lower household spending and weaker final domestic demand indicate that the economy was battling on the domestic front. Economists have warned that as tariffs continue on Canada, this trend will persist.

The gross domestic product in the first quarter grew by 2.2 per cent on an annualized basis as compared with the downwardly revised 2.1 per cent growth posted in the previous quarter, Statistics Canada said.

This is the final economic indicator before the Bank of Canada’s rates decision on Wednesday and will help determine whether the central bank will cut or stay pat on rates.

Currency swap markets were expecting around 75 per cent chance the bank would hold its rates at the current level of 2.75 per cent, before the GDP data was released.

Markets, economists shift predictions on next week’s BoC rate decision after GDP report surprises to the upside

Trump’s repeated threats and flip-flops on tariffs since the beginning of the year led to an increase in exports and imports to and from the U.S.

Trump imposed tariffs on Canada in March, first on a slew of products and later specifically on steel and aluminum.

The GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in March after a contraction of 0.2 per cent in February. The economy is likely expected to expand by 0.1 per cent in April, the statistics agency said referring to a flash estimate.

The March growth was primarily driven by a rebound in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and construction sectors.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the first quarter GDP to expand by 1.7 per cent and by 0.1 per cent in March.

The quarterly GDP figure is calculated based on income and expenditure while the monthly GDP is derived from industrial output.

The tariffs and the uncertainty around them started showing early signs of impact as the final domestic demand, which represents total final consumption expenditures and investment in fixed capital, did not increase for the first time since the end of 2023, Statscan said.

Growth in household spending also slowed to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, after rising 1.2 per cent in the prior quarter.

The first quarter growth was led by a rise in exports, which jumped by 1.6 per cent after increasing by 1.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024. Business investment in machinery and equipment also increased by 5.3 per cent which pushed the quarterly GDP higher.

Royal Bank of Canada RY-T -3.47%decrease reported higher second-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates as the lender sets aside more money for potential loan defaults with trade concerns dragging on consumers and businesses.

RBC earned $4.39-billion, or $3.02 per share, up 11 per cent from the same quarter last year.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, including integration costs related to the purchase of HSCB Bank Canada, the bank said it earned $3.12 per share. That fell below the $3.20 per share analysts expected, according to S&P Capital IQ.

The bank raised its quarterly dividend by 6 cents to $1.54 per share. RBC also said it plans to buy back 35 million of its shares.

Canada’s largest bank is telling its employees to return to their offices four days a week. The new rules take effect in the fall.

RBC to require employees to work in the office four days a week

RBC is the final major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal second quarter. Over the past week, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada posted results that beat analyst estimates,while Bank of Nova Scotia’s profit missed expectations.

Analysts expected Canada’s banks to continue grappling with higher loan loss reserves activity as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war threatens a deeper economic downturn.

In the quarter, RBC set aside $1.42-billion in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks reserve to cover loans that may default. That was higher than analysts anticipated, and included an increase in performing loans, or debt that is still being repaid, to $568-million, based on models that use economic forecasting to predict future losses.

In the same quarter last year, RBC reserved $920-million in provisions.

“Changes to long standing U.S. and international trade policies have resulted in a volatile and uncertain operating environment, given the potential for structural disruptions to the global supply chains and capital flows,” RBC chief executive officer Dave McKay said during a conference call.

“But we can’t say for certain where global trade policies will settle. We are cautiously optimistic about the path forward.”

Profit from personal and commercial banking was $1.6-billion, up 14 per cent from a year earlier, driven by earnings from HSBC Canada and higher net interest income.

The commercial banking unit earned $597-million, up 3 per cent from a year earlier, bolstered by profit from HSBC Canada.

The wealth management division generated $929-million of profit, up 11 per cent on higher fee-based client assets.

Capital markets profit fell 5 per cent to $1.2-billion as higher trading revenue in global markets was offset by lower merger and acquisition activity in corporate and investment banking.

“Performing PCLs were higher than consensus (conservative provisioning is a positive) and RBC is one of the few banks that did not beat on trading revenue (we are okay with that),” CIBC analyst Paul Holden said in a note to clients.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T -0.30%decrease reported higher second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as the lender set aside lower-than-expected provisions for loans that could default and stronger activity in capital markets.

CIBC earned $2-billion, or $2.04 per share, up 15 per cent from the same quarter last year.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, the bank said it earned $2.05 per share. That edged out the $1.90 per share analysts expected, according to S&P Capital IQ.

“We are navigating the volatility in the global business environment from a position of strength, supported by our robust capital position, disciplined risk management and strong credit quality,” CIBC chief executive officer Victor Dodig said in a statement.

In March, CIBC tapped head of capital markets Harry Culham as its next CEO in October.

CIBC is the fifth major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal second quarter. Over the past week, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal and National Bank of Canada posted results that beat analyst estimates,while Bank of Nova Scotia’s profit missed expectations. Royal Bank of Canada also releases results on Thursday.

Analysts expected Canada’s banks to continue grappling with higher loan loss reserves activity as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war threatens a deeper economic downturn.

In the quarter, CIBC set aside $605-million in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks set aside to cover loans that may default. That was lower than analysts anticipated, and included $142-million against loans that are still being repaid, based on models that use economic forecasting to predict future losses.

In the same quarter last year, CIBC set aside $67-million in provisions.

Total revenue rose 14 per cent in the quarter to $7-billion while expenses increased 9 per cent to $3.8-billion, which the bank said was driven higher performance-based compensation.More stories below advertisement

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Profit from Canadian personal and business banking was $734-million, up 4 per cent from a year earlier, driven by higher revenue.

The Canadian commercial and wealth management division generated $549-million of profit, up 13 per cent on higher loan and deposit margins and fee income, as well as an increase in fee-based revenue from higher average assets under administration and assets under management.

Profit from the bank’s U.S. commercial banking and wealth management unit was up 79 per cent at $122-million, driven by higher revenue and a lower provision for credit losses.

Capital markets profit rose 20 per cent to $566-million on higher financing and trading revenue, corporate banking revenue and debt underwriting activity.

OPEC+ is discussing a mechanism for setting baselines for its 2027 production at a meeting on Wednesday, delegates said, while separate talks due on Saturday could agree a further accelerated oil output hike for July.

The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has been discussing new baselines – production levels from which each member makes cuts or increases – for the past few years.

Baseline issues are controversial because some members such as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have increased their oil production capacity, pressing the case for higher quotas, while others such as African members have seen declines.

The 22-member group on Wednesday may adopt a mechanism to help establish the baseline assessment for 2027, two of the delegates said. The Wednesday meeting will not change output policy, sources said while the talks were under way.

On Saturday, the eight OPEC+ members who are in the process of gradually raising output are set to meet and may agree an output hike for July of 411,000 barrels a day, the same as in May and June, the delegates said.

Why Canadian energy is a secret bargain, spurring a hostile takeover bid in the oil sands

All sources declined to be identified by name due to the sensitivity of the matter.

OPEC+ has agreed three layers of output cuts since 2022. Two of these are in place until the end of 2026 and one is currently being unwound by the eight members.

The 2027 baselines in theory could feature in production policy when all output cuts currently in place expire.

Oil prices fell to a four-year low in April below $60 a barrel after OPEC+ said it was accelerating its output hike in May and as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs raised concerns of global economic weakness. Since then it has recovered to about $65.

Earlier this month, sources told Reuters that the eight countries, in addition to an output hike for July, may unwind the remainder of the most recent cut by the end of October.

National Bank of Canada NA-T +3.45%increase reported second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates on a boost from capital markets even as the lender ramps up provisions for bad loans.

National’s net income decreased by 1 per cent to $896-million, or $2.17 per share, in the three months that ended April 30.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, including acquisition and integration costs related to the acquisition of Canadian Western Bank, the bank said it earned $2.85 per share. That edged out the $2.40 per share analysts expected, according to S&P Capital IQ.

“In the context of continued geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, our strong capital position allows us to support business growth,” National chief executive officer Laurent Ferreira said in a statement.

The bank raised its quarterly dividend by 4 cents to $1.18 per share.

National is the fourth major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal second quarter. Bank of Montreal also released results Wednesday, posting profit that beat expectations.

Over the past week, Toronto-Dominion Bank posted results that beat analyst estimates and Bank of Nova Scotia missed expectations. Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce release results on Thursday.

Analysts expected Canada’s banks to continue grappling with higher loan loss reserves as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war threatens a deeper economic downturn.

In the quarter, National set aside $545-million in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks reserve to cover loans that may default. That was higher than analysts anticipated, and included $315-million against loans that are still being repaid, based on models that use economic forecasting to predict future losses.

In the same quarter last year, National reserved $138-million in provisions.

In the beginning of the quarter, National closed its takeover of Edmonton-based CWB, significantly expanding its footprint in Alberta and British Columbia. National is currently integrating Canada’s ninth-largest lender — a process that is driving up costs.

Total revenue rose 33 per cent in the quarter to $3.65-billion while expenses jumped 32 per cent to $1.94-billion.

Profit from Canadian personal and commercial banking was $132-million, down 58 per cent from a year earlier, driven by higher expenses due to the CWB takeover and a jump in provisions.

The wealth management division generated $232-million of profit, up 13 per cent, driven by higher fee-based revenues, net interest income and revenue from CWB.

Capital markets profit jumped 56 per cent to $501-million on a jump in trading revenue.

Bank of Montreal BMO-T +2.06%increase reported higher second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates even as the lender set aside more money for loans that could default as tariff tensions weigh on Canadian consumers and businesses.

BMO earned $1.96-billion, or $2.50 per share, in the three months that ended April 30. That compared with $1.87-billion, or $2.36 per share, in the same quarter last year.

Adjusted to exclude certain items, the bank said it earned $2.62 per share. That edged out the $2.55 per share analysts expected, according to S&P Capital IQ.

The bank raised its quarterly dividend by 4 cents to $1.63 per share.

BMO is the third major Canadian bank to report earnings for the fiscal second quarter. Over the past week, Toronto-Dominion Bank posted results that beat analyst estimates and Bank of Nova Scotia missed expectations. National Bank of Canada also reports Wednesday, and Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce release results on Thursday.

Analysts expected Canada’s banks to continue grappling with higher loan loss reserves and lower borrowing activity as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war threatens a deeper economic downturn.

In the quarter, BMO set aside $1.05-billion in provisions for credit losses – the funds banks reserve to cover loans that may default. That was higher than analysts anticipated, and included $289-million against loans that are still being repaid, based on models that use economic forecasting to predict future losses.

Rising risk in Canadian commercial banking and Canadian unsecured consumer lending drove the increase in provisions.

In the same quarter last year, BMO reserved $705-million in provisions.

Total revenue rose 9 per cent in the quarter to $8.68-billion while expenses increased 4 per cent to $5.02-billion, driven by employee-related and technology costs.

Profit from Canadian personal and commercial banking was $782-million, down 10 per cent from a year earlier as higher expenses and provisions for credit losses offset an increase in revenue. But loan balances were up 6 per cent year over year.

Profit from the bank’s U.S. arm edged higher to $546-million, partially offset by higher provisions and lower non-interest revenue due to the sale of a U.S. credit card portfolio.

The wealth management division generated $361-million of profit, up 13 per cent as stronger global markets activity boosted revenue.

And capital markets profit fell 6 per cent to $431-million as higher expenses and provisions offset a revenue boost in global markets.