Author: Consultant

Canadian stocks declined steeply on Friday – extending yesterday’s losses – as markets analyzed the “surprising” jump in employment numbers released today, which dampened the expectations of another rate cut by the central bank.

After opening above yesterday’s close, the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index, quickly turned lower and saw further downside throughout the session before finally closing at 29,850.89, down by 419.09 points (or 1.38%).

Data released by Statistics Canada today revealed that Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September, below market expectations of 7.2%.

Canadian employment rose by 60,400 jobs in September following the loss of 65,500 jobs in the prior month, well above market estimates of an increase of 5,000 jobs.

The sell-off on Bay Street also came as President Donald Trump threatened to massively increase tariffs on China in retaliation for China’s expansive export curbs on its rare earth minerals, which are essential for manufacturing and technology, triggering fresh concerns of a renewed U.S.-China trade war.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met Trump early this week in Washington. As Canada has been hit with 35% tariffs on its exports to the U.S., expectations were running high for a reduction in the rates or even some cancellation in levies. However, no significant breakthrough was announced after the meeting.

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc is still in Washington to meet with U.S. officials and monitor tariff talks.

Currently, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement allows a majority of Canadian exports to the U.S. to be exempted from tariffs. This tripartite free trade agreement is also up for renewal by mid-2026.

While consultations are ongoing between Canada and the U.S. on tariffs as well as the CUSMA, so far no details have been divulged for markets to cheer on either of the crucial issues.

However, Carney has stated that negotiations are ongoing on sector-specific deals with the U.S., which he stated would likely stay even with a revised USMCA.

In the U.S., the government shutdown entered day 10 today, with the closure stretching over to next week. Investors from all over the world, (including Canada) are cautiously watching the developments in the U.S. as concerns about spillover effects of this shutdown on global economy are rising.

Vital economic releases are delayed though the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced that it will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index on Friday, October 24.

Markets are still pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming October 28-29 Fed’s meeting.

In Canada, however, as the jobs numbers showed a surprise jump, investors are scaling back their expectations for a rate cut by Bank of Canada.

Major sectors that lost in today’s trading were Financials (1.27%), Energy (3.26%), Healthcare (3.90%), and IT (4.29%).

Among the individual stocks, Dye & Durham Ltd (8.57%), Shopify Inc (8.04%), Sylogist Ltd (7.74%), Curaleaf Holdings Inc (8.84%), and Baytex Energy Corp (8.91%) were the notable losers.

Major sectors that gained in today’s trading were Consumer Staples (1.08%), Communication Services (1.03%), and Utilities (0.86%).

Among the individual stocks, Loblaw CO (2.24%), George Weston Limited (1.74%), Metro Inc (1.26%), BCE Inc (1.76%), and Northland Power Inc (3.76%) were the prominent gainers.

Aritizia Inc (8.12%) and Perpetua Resources (7.47%) were among the prime market-moving stocks today.

 Aritzia Inc. reported $66.3 million in net income during its second quarter, up from $18.2 million during the same period last year. The Vancouver-based clothing company said net income per diluted share came in at 56 cents compared with 16 cents per diluted share a year earlier. Its net revenue rose 31.9 per cent to $812.1 million in the second quarter, from $615.7 million during the same period a year earlier.  On an adjusted basis, its net income amounted to $69.8 million, rising from $24.5 million during the second quarter of last year.  Aritzia CEO Jennifer Wong attributed the results to a strong response to its fall product launch as well as strength in its U.S. business.  The company said its U.S. net revenue rose 40.7 per cent during the period to $486.1 million, accounting for just under 60 per cent of its total revenue. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 9, 2025. Companies in this story: (TSX:ATZ)

• China has tightend its controls on rare earth exports ahead of an expected meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump.
• Shares of U.S. rare earth and critical mineral miners surged as the market speculates on further investment in the industry by the White House.
• The Trump administration has taken equity stakes in

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/china-tightens-rare-earths-grip-stocks-surge.html

Silver prices shot to a record high on Wednesday, buoyed by gold’s bull run and growing investor demand for hard assets amid persistent geopolitical and economic risks, as well as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.

Spot silver hit an all-time high at US$49.57 per ounce. Both a precious and industrial metal, silver has gained 70% so far this year, heading for its biggest annual growth since 2010.

Gold, traditionally seen as a store of value during times of instability, surged past the $4,000 an ounce level for the first time on Wednesday, while copper briefly hit a 16-month peak.

“There is also a case at present that many retail traders and others have been using silver as a safe-haven bet as well, which has increased demand and supported the rally in price,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

“Given the structural supply deficit and strong industrial tailwinds, I think silver could reach $55/oz over the next six months or so.”

Providing another layer of support to silver is tight liquidity in the London spot market, a major hub for physical trade, after this year’s massive outflows to the COMEX-owned warehouses in the U.S.

These deliveries to the U.S. stocks were at first due to worries that silver could potentially be hit by the U.S. April import tariffs, which the metal avoided.

“This concern resulted in unusually wide differences between the London spot and New York-based CME futures prices, the exchange for physical or EFP market. The premium in New York made it profitable to shift gold and silver to New York,” HSBC analyst James Steel said in a note.

Silver’s September inclusion on a draft list of U.S. critical minerals has caused another round of speculation over potential tariffs, prompting COMEX stocks to hit a record high last week.

As of the end of September, there were 24,581 metric tons of silver, down 0.3% from August, valued at $36.5 billion in the London vaults, according to the LBMA.

It currently takes 82 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold compared with 105 in April, as silver has been catching up with the gold price rally.

“Silver underperformed gold mid-year as the gold-silver ratio went up to 100, exacerbated by trade concerns reflecting silver’s role as an industrial metal,” Matthew Piggott, director of gold and silver at Metals Focus said.

“We see silver following gold and continuing to climb to breach the $60 level in 2026.”

While macroeconomic and financial factors are fueling investment demand, the outlook for strong demand from technologies such as photovoltaics, electronics, and electric vehicles is adding support to prices.

Similar to gold, silver has also seen a surge in inflows to physically-backed silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year, and enjoyed strong industrial consumption due to higher China solar installations in January-May, Morgan Stanley said in a note.

With room for silver ETF holdings to rise further, silver has an upside but it could start to lag versus gold as the solar demand growth is expected to slow down, it added.

Copper struck $11,000 per metric ton on Thursday, a milestone not seen for 16 months as investors piled into the metal after a series of disruptions to mine supply led to fears of shortages, while aluminium hit a more than three-year peak.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.1% to hit the $11,000 mark, moving it within striking distance of its all-time peak of $11,104.50, set in May 2024. It eased to $10,901 as of 1355 GMT.

Investors in top metals consumer China returned to the market on Thursday after a week-long public holiday.

Alastair Munro, senior metals strategist at brokerage Marex, said speculative Western money had poured into copper around the end of the third quarter after Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

“Today China has come in on the bid overnight and their spec community has now joined that Western bid,” Munro said, noting that some profit-taking had now begun.

Total copper stocks in the LME warehousing system are at 139,475 tons, the lowest since late July, while the discount for the cash copper contract against the three-month contract narrowed to $5.80 per ton, from $29.50 on Wednesday, indicating tighter near-term availability.

“If there’s any expectation that Grasberg is coming back faster than people have been told over the past couple of weeks, copper would take a hit,” Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price said.

Copper’s strength lifted the base metals complex higher. Aluminium rose as much as 2% to $2,807.50, the highest since June 2022, before easing to $2,800. Marex positioning estimates show the largest speculative long in LME aluminium since June 2024.

Zinc climbed 1.4% to $3,047, having earlier risen as much as 2.5% to $3,080, the highest since December 2024. Nickel gained 1.3% to $15,545, lead added 1.2% to $2,026, and tin jumped 1.5% to $36,920.

South Bow Corp. SOBO-T -0.53%decrease says it is exploring ways to leverage existing oil pipeline corridors to increase crude exports, in the wake of Prime Minister Mark Carney raising the prospect of reviving the long-dead Keystone XL pipeline project in discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The company said in a statement that while it’s not privy to discussions between the Canadian and U.S. governments, it supports any efforts to boost the transportation of Canadian crude.

“We will continue to explore opportunities that leverage our existing corridor with our customers and others in the industry,” the statement said.

During a conversation with Mr. Trump about energy co-operation, Mr. Carney brought up Keystone XL, which was designed to ship 830,000 barrels of crude a day along a 1,947-kilometre route from Hardisty, Alta., to Steele City, Neb.

The idea is to use the pipeline as leverage to alleviate tariffs for Canada’s steel and aluminum sectors if the construction of Keystone has Ottawa’s support, according to a senior federal government official.

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The official said that Mr. Trump was very receptive to the idea of reviving the pipeline,and that the topic will be an important one during follow-up discussions between Canada and the United States in the days ahead.

The Globe and Mail is not naming the official as they were not authorized to speak publicly about the issue.

Calgary-based company TC Energy Corp. TRP-T -0.96%decrease terminated Keystone XL in 2021, ending a project that appeared to have run out of options after Joe Biden pulled its permit as one of his first official acts as U.S. president.

The company then spun off its oil pipeline business into a new company, South Bow. In February, when Mr. Trump repeated calls to get the pipeline built, South Bow said that it had “moved on” from Keystone.

TC Energy’s decision to nix Keystone ended a 13-year regulatory odyssey that saw the proposed pipeline blocked twice by then-president Barack Obama and revived by Mr. Trump, his successor. The project’s cancellation was a significant blow to Alberta, whose economy has struggled in the face of constrained pipeline access and whose government bought an ownership stake under then-premier Jason Kenney in 2020.

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The pipeline, which had become a focal point for climate change activists in Canada and the United States, would have given Alberta oil companies a long-sought direct route to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The oil sectors of Canada and the U.S. are joined at the hip, with the U.S. importing more crude from its northern neighbour than from any other country.

About 40 per cent of U.S. refineries are specifically tooled for heavy crude – the kind produced in Canada, predominantly from the oil sands. In 2023, Canadian crude accounted for about 24 per cent of U.S. refinery output, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s about 3.9 million barrels a day – an increase from 17 per cent in 2013.

Although the U.S. remains the largest customer for Canadian crude, Mr. Trump’s global trade war has the oil sector here looking to expand its export options.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been pushing for another pipeline to the British Columbia coast, for example, which would open up more access to Asian markets thirsty for oil.

Last week, the Alberta government announced it was taking the lead on an application for a major new oil pipeline in an attempt to break through several federal policies that Ms. Smith has blamed for scaring away private investors.

Fiera Capital Corp. FSZ-T -4.10%decrease is locked in a legal battle with its recently terminated infrastructure head, with both sides suing each other after years of poor fund performance and investor redemption requests.

Alina Osorio, Fiera Infrastructure’s former president, is suing the company for wrongful dismissal, partly attributing her departure to differences over how to handle a large queue of investor redemption requests that now totals $700-million. Ms. Osorio, who sold her infrastructure business to Fiera a decade ago, also argues in her suit thatshe has the right to buy it back.

Two weeks after she filed her lawsuit in September, Fiera filed its own, alleging Ms. Osorio secretly tried to engineer a sale of Fiera’s majority stake in itsinfrastructure business and that she persistently refused to provide Fiera with investment information for the fund.

None of the allegations has been provedin court and neither partyhas filed aformal response yet. Thelawsuits extend the long-running drama at Fiera, which lost its largest shareholder – Desjardins Financial Holdings Inc. – last year and whose share price has been volatile since the company reversed its succession plan and founder Jean-Guy Desjardins took back control in January, 2023. (A new CEO has since taken the helm.)

The company’s shares are down 32 per cent since Mr. Desjardins returned, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index 

N/A is up roughly 45 per cent over the same period.

Fiera Infrastructure’s performance has also struggled. The fund aims to deliver stable returns by investing in private infrastructure assets and companies such as PureSky Energy, a solar and battery power storage platform in the U.S., and IslaLink, which owns fibre telecommunications infrastructure connecting the Balearic Islands to mainland Spain. However, the fund’s average annual return since the start of 2022 is only 1.2 per cent.

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In its lawsuit, Fiera alleges that certain investments spearheaded by Ms. Osorio “performed poorly” and that fund performance “under Ms. Osorio’s leadership was below its target range.”

Ms. Osorio joined Fiera in 2016 after the Montreal-based asset manager acquired an infrastructure fund she started, then turned it into Fiera Infrastructure, where she was president and co-owner. Today, the business is a division of Fiera’s private markets arm that invests in assets such as real estate, private equity and infrastructure.

In September, Fiera announced a leadership change for the business, naming Bruno Guilmette as its new global head of infrastructure.

At the time, Fiera said Ms. Osorio would step down as president but remain on Fiera Infrastructure’s board of directors and its investment committee. However, she filed a lawsuit in Ontario Superior Court the same day, alleging she was wrongfully terminated partly because she disagreed with how Fiera wanted to manage its large redemption queue.

Fiera Infrastructure manages $4.7-billion in assets, and its redemption queue had grown to $700-million because the fund can’t sell assets or bring new investors in fast enough to meet the requests.

Ms. Osorio alleges she proposed a “balanced approach”that included asset sales; allowing investors to exit by selling at a discount; and accelerating marketing of the fund to find new investors. But she alleges Fiera was insistent on selling assets, even if it had to be done at fire sale prices.

Fiera alleges in its suit that Ms. Osorio did not develop “a responsible plan to address the redemption queue” and instead proposed a sale of Fiera’s stake in the infrastructure business, adding that she was against bringing in new leadership.

Redemption queues are a hot topic in Canada because a growing number of investors are finding themselves trapped in private asset funds, with limited opportunity to exit them. Private asset funds are increasingly being sold to retail investors, some of whom do not understand the rules that allow fund managers to freeze or limit redemptionsin bad markets.

In Fiera Infrastructure’s case, the investors are largely institutions, charitable endowment funds and high-net-worth individuals, but even this sophisticated investor base has grown frustrated by the redemption queue.

In March, Richard Hylands, president of Montreal-based Kevric Real Estate Corp., a company that has developed major projects such as Place Bonaventure in Montreal and 150 Bloor Street in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood, sued Fiera and Mr. Desjardins after investing $50-million in Fiera funds, including the infrastructure fund, only to find some of it trapped by the redemption freeze.

Mr. Hylands declined to comment for this story.

In an e-mailed statement to The Globe and Mail, Fiera said that “while a redemption queue exists, it is being processed in the ordinary course under the governing documents with investment committee oversight and without forced or distressed sales. The strategy has been presented fairly to clients, and in accordance with our obligations.”

Gold raced past $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday as investors piled into a record-breaking rally in the safe-haven asset to hedge against global economic uncertainty, while also betting on U.S. interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,036.22 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.3% to $4,058. Silver also latched on to gold’s rally, gaining 2.4% to $48.97 per ounce, and just shy of its all-time high of $49.51.

Traditionally, gold is seen as a store of value during times of instability. Spot gold is up about 54% year-to-date, after gaining 27% in 2024. It is one of the strongest-performing assets of 2025, outpacing advances in global equity markets and bitcoin, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil are down for the year.

The rally has been driven by a cocktail of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, ongoing political and economic uncertainty, solid central bank buying, inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a weak dollar.

“Background factors are much the same as before, in terms of geopolitical uncertainty, with the added spice of the (U.S.) government shutdown,” StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said.

“The latter is not impeding strong equities but nonetheless there will be a degree of risk mitigation via bullion.”

The U.S. government shutdown, into its eighth day on Wednesday, has delayed the release of key economic data, forcing investors to rely on non-government sources to assess the timing and scope of Fed rate cuts.

Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, with a similar reduction expected in December.

Global crises, including the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine, have also contributed to increased demand for bullion, with political turmoil in France and Japan further amplifying the rush for safe-haven assets.

Renewed accumulation of developed-market ETFs for the first time in five years is also among the factors boosting this rally, said Michael Hsueh, precious metals analyst at Deutsche Bank.

Globally, inflows into gold ETFs hit $64 billion year-to-date, according to data from the World Gold Council, with a record $17.3 billion in September alone. Analysts expect strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs, central bank buying and lower U.S. interest rates to support gold prices in 2026 as well. Major banks have turned bullish on this rally.

“We had expected gold to reach the ($4,000) level closer to the end of the year, but the direction of travel remains consistent with our broader outlook,” said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, reiterating its forecast that prices would hit $4,530 an ounce by the end of the third quarter of 2026.

A “fear of missing out” is also boosting the rally, analysts said.

“One headwind for gold would be the Fed getting more hawkish on gold, but for the time being, Trump wants to see lower U.S. interest rates and that should keep increasing the appeal of gold,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

HSBC on Wednesday raised its average silver price forecasts for 2025 to $38.56 per ounce and for 2026 to $44.50, citing expectations for high gold prices, renewed investor demand and anticipated volatile trading. Gold’s momentum also seeped into other precious metals, with platinum gaining 2.4% to $1,652.80, while palladium climbed 4.1% to $1,392.26.

Teck Resources Ltd. TCK-N +3.55%increase has cut its production forecast yet again at its QB2 mine as it continues to grapple with engineering problems at the high-altitude operation in Chile.

Vancouver-based Teck announced the latest QB2 guidance cut as it tries to convince its investors to vote for the takeover of the company by Anglo-American PLC NGLOY +3.45%increase. 

Teck on Wednesday said that it is reducing its guidance to roughly 180,000 tonnes of copper from about 220,000 tonnes. The company had already cut its QB2 guidance in July and January. 

QB2 has been a problem asset for Teck for years. The US$8.7-billion project went 85 per cent over budget. After going into production in 2023, the ramp up didn’t go well either, with grade shortfalls, unscheduled maintenance shutdowns, and persistent technical issues.

This year, slow water drainage in the tailings dam has repeatedly dragged down production. Teck on Wednesday said it will spend an additional $420-million on the tailings dam in 2026, as it tries to achieve steady state production at the mine.

Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina said in a note on Wednesday that the updated QB2 guidance was worse than expected and that makes it less likely that Anglo will need to increase its offer for Teck.

“This makes the Anglo-Teck merger more likely to close without Anglo needing to bump,” he said.

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London-based Anglo in September said it intended to pay no premium to buy Teck, in an all-stock deal worth about $20-billion. 

Doubt exists in some quarters about whether Teck shareholders will approve the deal in a vote that is likely to happen in December, given the lack of a premium and questions over the timing of the transaction. 

“While the industrial logic of an Anglo-Teck combination is sound and the significant expected corporate/operational synergies are compelling, we continue to believe that the proposed transaction under the current terms appears unlikely to succeed,” Orest Wowkodaw, analyst with Scotia Capital, said in a note to clients on Wednesday. “As securing the minimum required Teck class B shareholder approval of 66 2/3 is likely to prove challenging.” 

About a week before the Anglo deal was announced, Teck launched a major overhaul at QB2 and cut ties with its chief operating officer, the second COO to leave the company amid problems at the mine.  

Still, despite years of problems, some analysts believe the problems at QB2 will get ironed out over time. 

“QB2 appears bent but not broken,” Mr. Wowkodaw said in his note. 

“Although the near-term guidance revisions are slightly weaker than we anticipated, our biggest takeaway is that QB2 does not appear to be a structurally broken asset,” he added.

Anglo chief executive Duncan Wanblad told The Globe and Mail last month he was confident the company would be able to fix any outstanding technical issues at QB2. He said that Anglo had overcome similar problems at one of its mines in the past. 

Teck owns 60 per cent of QB2 and is the operator. Japan’s Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd. and Sumitomo Corp. hold a 30-per-cent stake, and Chile’s National Copper Corporation owns 10 per cent.