Author: Consultant

  • Wealthsimple, Questrade ask Ottawa to regulate registered account transfers

    Ottawa should regulate the cost and time it takes Canadians to transfer tax-advantaged investment and savings accounts from one financial institution to another, some digital brokers have told federal officials.

    In the lead-up to the 2025 federal budget expected on Nov. 4, both Wealthsimple Technologies Inc. and Questrade Financial Group Inc. said they are involved in consultations with the government about setting standards for account transfer fees and timelines. The talks focus on what’s known as registered accounts, such as tax-free savings accounts, or TFSAs, and registered retirement savings plans, or RRSPs.

    Transfer fees, also known as exit fees, for registered accounts have roughly doubled since the 2010s, with many banks and investment dealers now charging $150 per account, Wealthsimple said in a recent federal budget submission. Citing internal data, the company also said it often takes more than a month and a half for sending institutions to move the money, even after receiving all required documentation.

    Wealthsimple asks Ottawa to review rising bank transfer fees

    A Questrade client lost $70,000 in a cyber crime. What happened next shows a growing risk for investors

    Wealthsimple and Questrade, which are courting consumers who invest through the big banks or their subsidiaries, have an interest in seeing regulatory checks on transfer fees and delays. But investor advocates say consumers at large would benefit from cheaper and faster account transfers.

    “When you think about having to pay exit fees, it’s like a penalty for switching to a new financial institution that might be able to better serve your needs,” said Jean-Paul Bureaud, executive director at FAIR Canada, a national organization that ​​champions the interests of individual investors.

    Mr. Bureaud also said it is common for account transfers to take weeks or even months, a timeline he called “shocking.”

    The long wait times can also deliver a financial hit for consumers, who might lose out on market opportunities or forgo interest income while their money sits on the sidelines instead of being invested, he said. Sometimes, investors may miss contribution deadlines because of transfer delays, he added.

    Account transfer issues have long been a source of customer complaints. But the main effort to address the concerns has so far occurred at the provincial level. The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, or CIRO, oversees investments dealers on behalf of provincial regulators, and has proposed a standard settlement period of 10 clearing days for account transfers.

    But in talks leading up to the federal budget, Wealthsimple and Questrade have asked Ottawa to regulate transfers specifically of tax-advantaged accounts, which are registered with the federal government.

    These also include registered education savings plans, or RESPs, which help families save for a child’s education after high school, and first home savings account, or FHSAs, which help first-time homebuyers save for a house.

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    “We have provided input in pre-budget consultations with the federal government and advocated for a regulatory standard for transfer fees and timelines for registered accounts,” Questrade spokesperson J.R. Gabriel told The Globe and Mail in an e-mailed statement.

    In its budget submission, Wealthsimple argued that the federal government has “sole and complete jurisdiction” over registered accounts. Ottawa, it said, should use “its unilateral authority to impose conditions on how those accounts are administered, including restrictions on fees, no matter whether the account is offered by a federally- or provincially-regulated financial institution.”

    Wealthsimple exec apologizes to customers after data breach, says no account details were misused

    The Department of Finance did not answer a question from The Globe about whether it has the ability to impose caps on transfer fees for registered accounts, but said more details on the government’s agenda will be available in the budget.

    Questrade said it covers transfer fees up to $150 for incoming funds, with no minimum account size requirements for the refunds. Wealthsimple said it reimburses the charges for account transfers worth $25,000 or more, but does so automatically, without waiting for customers to ask for the rebate, as is common industry practice.

    Both institutions are also raising the issue of long transfer times with Ottawa. Wealthsimple said that between October, 2024, and March, 2025, for 45 per cent of its incoming transfers of registered plans, originating institutions relied on fax and mailed cheques to execute customer requests to move their money.

    In addition to setting a 10-day clearing standard, the CIRO proposal would also require investment dealers to use an automated system for eligible transfers. The proposed rule changes are currently subject to consultations.

    Separately, the Canadian Bankers Association, a lobby group that includes all the big banks, has voluntary guidelines that ask banks to process transfers within seven to 12 business days for registered accounts. Banks only offer investment options such as savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates for registered accounts, though many offer other investments through subsidiary dealers.

    Wealthsimple has recommended that Ottawa conduct compliance audits of the guidelines.

  • Vancouver-based Lithium Americas soars over 100% on report Trump administration seeking equity stake

    U.S.-listed shares of Lithium Americas (LAC-N +93.81%increase, LAC-T +95.97%increase) jumped over 100 per cent on Wednesday after Reuters reported that the Trump administration is seeking up to a 10 per cent stake in the miner, in the latest sign of Washington’s intervention into industries it considers critical to national security.

    Late Tuesday, Reuters cited two people familiar with the talks who said the administration is considering the stake as part of negotiations over a US$2.26-billion Department of Energy loan for the company’s Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, the largest planned lithium mine in the Western Hemisphere.

    Vancouver-based Lithium Americas said on Wednesday it was in discussions with the U.S. energy department and General Motors over the Thacker Pass loan.

    The move underscores President Donald Trump’s increasing use of direct government ownership to steer strategic sectors and curb reliance on China, which dominates refining of many critical minerals.

    China produces over 40,000 metric tons of lithium annually, ranking third after Australia and Chile, but dominates refining, processing more than 75 per cent of the world’s lithium into battery-grade material.

    TD Cowen analysts said a government stake would lend credence to the Thacker Pass project completion and expansion to multiple phases with perhaps enhanced economics.

    The project is seen as a linchpin in building a domestic supply chain part of Washington’s long-standing drive to boost U.S. production of lithium, a metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles and other electronics.

    The Trump administration recently moved to take a stake in chipmaker Intel following a deal that would make the Department of Defense the largest shareholder in rare earths MP Materials. Jefferies said the administration’s preference for equity stakes, viewed as lower political cost than tax increases, can support financing, corporate profits, and favorable returns on invested capital.

    Lithium Americas’ Canadian and U.S.-listed shares were both up about 90 per cent at $8.04 and US$5.80, respectively. The company had a market value of US$744.5-million as of last close on the New York Stock Exchange.

    GM, which invested US$625-million in the mine last year for a 38 per cent stake, has the right to buy all of the project’s lithium from its first phase and a portion from the second phase for 20 years, although Trump officials are now seeking a guarantee that GM will buy the metal, according to the sources.

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    NBCFM Research analyst Mohamed Sidibe said the MP Materials-DoD model shows how government equity, long-term offtake, and price support can derisk strategic projects.

  • Economic Calendar: Sept.22 – Sept 26

    Monday September 22

    Euro zone consumer confidence

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s industrial product price and raw materials price indexes for August. Estimates are an increase of 0.1 per cent and a decline of 1.0 per cent month-over-month, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki joins a virtual panel on “Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook”

    (1:15 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers joins a panel in London, U.K.

    Earnings include: Firefly Aerospace Inc.

    Tuesday September 23

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    Japanese markets closed

    Euro zone PMI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new housing price index for August. Estimates are a decline of 0.1 per cent from July and down 1.4 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. current account deficit for Q2.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for September (preliminary reading)

    (12:35 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook.

    (2:15 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce.

    Earnings include: AutoZone Inc.; Micron Technology Inc.

    Wednesday September 24

    Japan PMI and machine tool orders

    Germany business sentiment

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s population estimates for Q2.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for August. The Street is projecting an annualized rate decline of 0.3 per cent.

    Earnings include: AGF Management Ltd.; Cintas Corp.; Paychex Inc.

    Thursday September 25

    ECB’s economic bulletin is released

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey on the job vacancy rate for July.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Sept. 20. Estimate is 237,000, up 6,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and price index for Q2. The consensus projections are annualized rate rises of 3.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods trade deficit for August.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for August.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable and core orders for August. The Street expects month-over-month drops of 0.5 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for August. Estimate is an annualized rate decline of 1.2 per cent.

    Earnings include: Accenture PLC; BlackBerry Ltd.; Costco Wholesale Corp.

    Friday September 26

    Tokyo CPI

    ECB’s three-year CPI expectations

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for July.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for August.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for August. Consensus estimates are month-over-month gains of 0.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for August. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.2 per cent from July and up 2.9 per cent year-over-year.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September.

    Also: Ottawa’s budget balance for July.

    Earnings include: Uranium Energy Corp.

  • Bank of Canada cuts interest rate by quarter-point to 2.5%

    The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday, lowering borrowing costs for the first time since March as U.S. tariffs continue to batter the Canadian economy.

    As widely expected, the bank’s governing council voted to lower the policy rate to 2.5 per cent from 2.75 per cent. This follows three consecutive rate decisions where the central bank remained on hold.

    Live updates on the Bank of Canada’s September rate decision

    The bank has been reluctant to ease monetary policy amid a trade war with the United States, given the possibility that U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs could push up consumer prices and reignite inflation. But that calculus has shifted as unemployment has risen, exports have plummeted and inflation has remained relatively benign.

    “Considerable uncertainty remains. But with a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, governing council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a press conference after the announcement.

    Mr. Macklem said there was a “clear consensus” for a cut on Wednesday. But he gave few hints about where interest rates will go from here, saying that the bank would “look over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information.”

    The rate cut is happening against a weak economic backdrop. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have hammered Canadian exports, which fell 27 per cent in the second quarter as tariff front-running went into reverse and U.S. demand dropped. That drove a 1.6 per cent annualized contraction in Canadian real gross domestic product in the second quarter.

    “Tariffs are having a profound effect on several key sectors, including the auto, steel and aluminum industries. Chinese tariffs on canola, pork and seafood, new U.S. tariffs on copper, and higher U.S. tariffs on softwood lumber will spread the direct impacts further,” Mr. Macklem said.

    The labour market weakened significantly over the summer, particularly in tariff-exposed industries and among young people. The unemployment rate hit 7.1 per cent in August, the highest level since 2016 outside the pandemic.

    Business investment is likewise weak. And while consumer spending has held up fairly well, Mr. Macklem warned that slow population growth and rising unemployment will likely weigh on household spending in the coming months.

    Opinion: Canada’s economy is bad. But the U.S. economy is worse

    The bank’s reluctance to lower interest rates through much of 2025 was based on concerns about sticky core inflation measures, which have remained stubbornly above the bank’s 2-per-cent target. It was also nervous that tariffs and supply chain disruptions would add to inflation even as they hurt economic activity – a tricky combination for a central bank to manage.

    Core inflation measures have remained around 3 per cent, but Mr. Macklem did not sound particularly concerned about price pressures on Wednesday. He said that a broad range of indicators suggested that underlying inflation was likely running at around 2.5 per cent.

    “Although there are still some mixed signals, on balance, recent data suggest the upward pressures on underlying inflation have diminished,” Mr. Macklem said.

    Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision in August to drop retaliatory tariffs on more than $40-billion worth of U.S. goods – products that comply with continental free trade agreement rules of origin – also means there will be less upward pressure on imported goods prices, Mr. Macklem said.

    The central bank gave no guidance about its plans for the Oct. 29 rate decision, or where interest rates might go from here.

    Financial markets now put the odds of another quarter-point rate cut in October at around 40 per cent, according to LSEG data. Only one more rate cut is fully priced in over the next year.

    A number of Bay Street economists, however, expect the bank to follow up with another cut next month.

    “Given the clear consensus within Governing Council around the deteriorating outlook, we see a very high bar to pause next month,” Toronto-Dominion Bank strategists Robert Both, Andrew Kelvin, Emma Lawrence and Jayati Bharadwaj wrote in a client note.

    “The fact that Governing Council is still assessing risks over a shorter horizon than usual does suggest a bit more uncertainty around next month’s meeting than we’d otherwise expect, but we think pausing in October would require a material reversal in both the economic data and the sentiment around Canada-US trade.”

    A lot will depend on what happens on the trade front. So far, Mr. Carney has failed to secure a deal with Mr. Trump that would remove or lower tariffs. He has said he is now trying to secure “small” sectoral deals that would lower tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber, rather than a grand bargain that would deal with all tariffs.

    The government is also shifting focus to the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the free trade pact that is currently protecting around 85 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. from tariffs.

    Mr. Macklem said that monetary policy is a blunt tool that can’t do much to repair the damage U.S. tariffs are causing to specific industries. Targeted fiscal support measures are a better tool for that, he said.

    But monetary policy can help cushion the blow to the overall economy, he said, and the bank would be paying close attention to how trade disruptions are feeding through to other sectors and impacting prices.

    “We are paying close attention to how exports evolve given the impact of U.S. tariffs and changing trade relationships; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how the cost effects of trade disruptions and reconfigured supply chains are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve,” Mr. Macklem said.

    Lisa Cook to attend Fed meeting after appeals court ruling, Stephen Miran confirmed to open seat

    Wednesday’s rate cut will lower interest-rates for variable-rate mortgages. What happens to fixed-rate mortgages will depend on what happens in the bond market.

    That will be influenced as much by what happens in the United States as in Canada. On Wednesday afternoon, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its own rate decision. Markets are expecting a quarter-point cut, and analysts will be watching to see what the Fed signals about future rate cuts in its quarterly summary of economic projections.

  • Gold dazzles at all-time high as Fed rate cut looms

    Gold surged to a record high on Tuesday, buoyed by a weakening U.S. dollar and growing market anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected.

    Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,701.93 per ounce after hitting a record high of $3,699.37 earlier in the session.

    U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% to $3,735.60.

    The dollar fell to a more than two-month low against rivals. A weaker greenback makes gold less expensive for other currency holders.

    “Global growth uncertainty and geopolitical risk continue to keep haven demand high but the gold rally is being driven largely by anticipation of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

    “If the dot plot shows a shift to two rate cuts in 2025, this could fuel the gold rally and push it beyond the $3,700/oz mark with $3,800/oz a real possibility.”

    Traders are pricing in a near-certain 25 bps rate cut at the end of a two-day meeting on September 17, with a small chance of a 50-bps reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    U.S. President Donald Trump in a social media post on Monday called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to enact a “bigger” rate cut. Meanwhile, U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran to the central bank’s board of governors.

    Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment.

    Commerzbank raised its gold price forecast to $3,600 per troy ounce by the end of this year and to $3,800 by the end of 2026.

    Bullion has surged about 41% this year and notched multiple record highs on the back of sustained central bank purchases, diversification away from the U.S. dollar, resilient safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade frictions.

    Elsewhere, spot silver was up 0.2% at $42.81 per ounce, the highest level since September 2011. Platinum shed 0.3% to $1,397.02 and palladium fell 0.6% to $1,176.68.

  • Oil edges higher as market weighs Russia supply risk and U.S. rate decision

    Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as markets weighed potential supply disruption from Russia after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries and the prospect of a U.S. central bank interest rate cut.

    Brent crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.56%, to $67.82 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.80, up 50 cents, or 0.79%. On Monday, Brent settled up 45 cents at $67.44 while WTI settled 61 cents higher at $63.30.

    Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure in an attempt to impair Moscow’s war capability, as talks to end their conflict have stalled.

    “An attack on an export terminal like Primorsk is aimed more at limiting Russia’s ability to sell its oil abroad, affecting export markets,” said JP Morgan analysts.

    “More importantly, the attack suggests a growing willingness to disrupt international oil markets, which has the potential to add upside pressure on oil prices,” they said.

    Goldman Sachs estimates that the Ukrainian attacks have taken out about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity in August and so far this month.

    “While the uncertainty around secondary tariffs and additional sanctions remains high, we assume only modestly lower Russian production as Asian buyers continue to signal willingness to import Russian crude,” the bank said.

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the government would not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to encourage China to halt purchases of Russian oil unless European countries hit China and India, the biggest buyers of Russian crude, with duties of their own.

    Also on investors’ radar is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September 16-17 meeting, at which the bank is widely expected to cut interest rates.

    While lower borrowing costs typically boost fuel demand, analysts were cautious on the health of the overall U.S. economy.

    Markets were also factoring in the likelihood of crude inventory declines in the U.S. last week, with official data expected on Wednesday at 1430 GMT.

    U.S. crude inventories likely fell 6.4 million barrels for the week ended September 12, following a 3.9 million build a week earlier, energy strategist Walt Chancellor at Macquarie Group said in a client note.

    A Reuters poll on Monday showed analysts expected U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles to have fallen last week, while distillate inventories likely rose.

  • Canadian housing starts down 16% in August: CMHC

    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in August fell 16 per cent compared with July.

    The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts came in at 245,791 units in August, down from 293,537 in July.

    The drop came as the seasonally adjusted annual pace of housing starts for Canadian centres with a population of 10,000 or greater fell to 223,728 in August compared with 272,330 a month earlier.

    The annual rate of rural starts was estimated at 22,063 in August.

    The six-month moving average of the overall seasonally adjusted annual rate was up 1.6 per cent in August at 267,259 units.

    CMHC says actual housing starts in August for centres with a population of 10,000 or greater totalled 18,408, compared with 16,775 in August 2024.

  • Joly says Anglo American promises around Teck takeover don’t go far enough

    Industry Minister Mélanie Joly says that promises made by Anglo American PLC NGLOY +0.68%increase as part of its attempt to buy Teck Resources Ltd. TECK-B-T -3.32%decrease don’t go far enough.

    London-based Anglo has made a slew of commitments to win approval from Ottawa for the US$20-billion deal, including moving its global headquarters to Canada and changing its name to Anglo Teck.

    The deal can’t proceed unless Ms. Joly deems it to be of net economic benefit to Canada and determines that there are no national security concerns.

    Speaking to reporters on Tuesday in Ottawa, Ms. Joly said Anglo must go further to prove the deal is of benefit to Canada.

    “I think right now that it’s not enough, and also we need to think about longer term, and how can we make sure that ultimately we create jobs, but we have a strong headquarters, not only now, but also for the next decades,” she said.

    “We need to have further conversations with the companies.”

    Ms. Joly said that she will be meeting with the CEOs of both Anglo and Teck next week.

    Discussions have already taken place between the government and the companies about the deal.

    The Globe and Mail on Monday reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney has been directly involved and told Anglo that deal approval would not be possible unless it committed to moving its headquarters to Canada.

    Mr. Carney also made it clear that any other potential bidders for Teck would also have to commit to moving to Canada, a stipulation that dampens the prospect for a bidding war for the Canadian miner.

    Anglo must curry favour with Ottawa in the face of an extremely high bar set by the government for allowing takeovers in the critical minerals sector.

    Last year, Ottawa after approving Glencore PLC’s acquisition of a majority stake in Teck’s coal business, then-industry minister François-Philippe Champagne said Canada would approve foreign acquisitions of big Canadian critical minerals companies only “in the most exceptional of circumstances.”

    Ottawa changed the rules in a climate of extreme anxiety that Canada was slipping behind its global rivals in critical minerals such as copper, lithium, and cobalt.

    After Teck sold its coal business it had ambitions to be a global player in copper, one of several critical minerals used in low carbon energy. But its plans have been derailed by massive cost overruns and engineering problems at its biggest copper mine in Chile.

    Anglo is making its play for Teck during a time when the Canadian miner’s stock was badly beaten up owing to challenges at the mine.

    One of Anglo’s other commitments is moving many of its high-ranking personnel to Canada. Its chief executive officer, deputy CEO, chief financial officer and “a significant majority” of the executive management team will be based in Canada, the company said. In addition, “a substantial proportion” of the board will be Canadian.

    Anglo also said it plans to invest at least $4.5-billion over five years in Canada, including putting some of that toward an extension of the Highland Valley mine, improving critical-minerals processing capacity at the Trail plant in British Columbia, and potentially building new mines. Many of those investments had already been announced by Teck before the deal was announced.

    Given that Mr. Carney won election on a pledge to protect the domestic economy in the face of a U.S. trade war, allowing the sale of a Canadian mining giant to a foreign multinational could be seen as an abdication of that promise.

    Teck is one of the last remaining big Canadian critical minerals companies left in Canada. Over the decades, many former Canadian mining champions, including Alcan Inc., Falconbridge Ltd., and Inco Ltd. have been sold to foreign mining companies.

    Bay street veteran Tom Caldwell, chairman of Caldwell Securities Ltd. said that potentially losing Teck is painful for the already hollowed out Canadian mining sector and the framing of the deal by the companies as a “merger of equals” is a fallacy.

    “Mergers do not exist. There’s only takeovers,” he said.

    “I’ve been through kazillions of them in my career, and there’s always a dominant player. And we know who that is.”

    If the deal with Anglo closes, Teck shareholders will own 37.6 per cent of Anglo Teck, while Anglo shareholders will own 62.4 per cent.

    Anglo Teck will remain domiciled in Britain and the primary stock listing will be the London Stock Exchange.

  • Canada’s inflation rate ticked up slightly in August: StatCan

    Canada’s inflation rate rose to 1.9 per cent in August, increasing by less than economists had forecasted and solidifying expectations of an interest rate cut on Wednesday.

    Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that the annual inflation rate rose from 1.7 per cent in July. The acceleration in headline inflation was driven by a smaller annual increase in gasoline prices in August relative to July.

    The Bank of Canada will have a close eye on Tuesday’s consumer price index report as it gears up for its interest rate announcement on Wednesday. Economists widely expect the central bank will resume cutting interest rates as U.S. tariffs slow economic growth.

    CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said, “inflation remains unthreatening,” noting that core measures of inflation which strip out volatility in price movements have decelerated slightly.

    “So all in all, really, this is not an obstacle for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates tomorrow, and we continue to forecast a 25-basis-point move,” he said in an interview.

    The Bank of Canada’s key measures of inflation continued to hover around three per cent last month. Meanwhile, inflation excluding gasoline prices rose by 2.4 per cent, down slightly from the previous three months.

    Mr. Grantham expects the central bank to deliver another interest rate cut in October, as well.

    The Bank of Canada’s key interest rate currently stands at 2.75 per cent.

    Traders now see about a 93-per-cent chance of a quarter-percentage-point cut on Wednesday, up from about 87 per cent prior to the inflation report, according to LSEG data.

    The Bank of Canada has held off on cutting interest rates since March, opting to monitor how the U.S. trade war evolves and whether inflation remains at bay.

    Economists were somewhat concerned by a pick-up in inflation in the spring and the prospect of a trade war raising prices further. But those anxieties have faded as data come in milder than expected.

    Mr. Grantham said that in hindsight, the pick-up in inflation in the spring was being driven by retaliatory tariffs Canada placed on U.S. goods, which affected food products in particular.

    Prime Minister Mark Carney dropped many of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs this month, in a bid to further trade negotiations with the U.S.

    “It’s very difficult to make the case that underlying inflationary pressures are anything but weak at the moment,” said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.

    “That’s even more true given the fact that Canada’s retaliatory tariffs have mostly been eliminated, so any price increases that were due to those tariffs are likely to normalize, and in some cases, we could even see price declines in some categories.”

    While headline inflation remained around the Bank of Canada’s two-per-cent target, Canadians continued to see the cost of food and shelter rise faster than overall price growth last month.

    Food prices rose by 3.4 per cent, compared with 3.3 per cent in July. Shelter costs increased at a slower pace of 2.6 per cent, down from 3 per cent the previous month.