Author: Consultant

  • Canada’s economy adds 14,000 jobs in March after February’s whopping losses

    Canada’s economy added a modest 14,000 jobs in March, Statistics Canada said on Friday, clawing back a fraction of the sharp job losses seen during the first two months of the year.

    The data agency’s previous Labour Force Survey from February showed a loss of 84,000 jobs, a result that was largely a surprise to economists and analysts.

    Given the earlier losses, “no one is going to mistake this small back-up as a sign of strength,” wrote Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, in a note to clients.

    “Still, even a small plus sign is a positive, as is the stable jobless rate,” wrote Porter. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 per cent, and there was little variation in the number of full- and part-time employees in March.

    Employment was up in the natural resources industry and the “other services” industry, which includes sectors like personal and repair services. Jobs declined in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing.

    The number of private and public sector workers was little changed, though the number of workers in the public sector has been growing at a faster rate on a yearly basis.

    Average hourly wages were up 4.7 per cent, or $1.68, for a total average hourly wage of $37.73, which Statistics Canada noted is the highest growth rate for wages since October 2024.

    “The only really new news here is that wages seemingly popped, which the Bank of Canada will keep on eye on, particularly as it is already on high alert for signs of any spillover from higher energy prices to broader inflation,” wrote Porter.

    The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement is on April 29.

  • TFSA Contribution Limit

    Introduced in 2009, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) is available to Canadian residents age 18 or older. In addition to cash, a TFSA can hold several other investments such as bonds, stocks, and mutual funds. Any interest income, dividends or capital gains earned in the account are not taxed and withdrawals can be made tax-free. There is an annual TFSA contribution limit of $7,000 for 2026, and any unused contributions from one year can be carried forward to the next year. Your contribution room, the maximum amount you can deposit to your TFSA, consists of the current year’s contribution limit, any unused contribution room that you have accumulated from previous years and the total value of withdrawals made in the previous year. Any contribution made to a TFSA beyond the maximum amount is considered an over-contribution, and the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) will charge a penalty of 1 per cent per month on the excess contribution until it is withdrawn.

    Use the TFSA Limit calculator to determine your 2026 TFSA contribution room limit.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/tools/tfsa-limit

  • Inflation held sticky at 3% as U.S. headed into war with Iran, key Fed gauge shows

    • The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in February, the Commerce Department reported. The all-items headline inflation measure increased 2.8%.
    • In addition to the inflation readings, the report also showed consumer spending unexpectedly down 0.1% on the month, while personal income rose 0.4%.

    Core inflation held above the Federal Reserve’s target before the recent surge in energy prices, according to a key gauge released Thursday that offers the central bank a snapshot of conditions leading into the Iran war.

    The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in February, the Commerce Department reported. The all-items headline inflation measure increased 2.8%.

    Both readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The core annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than in January while headline was unchanged.

    On a monthly basis, both core and headline prices rose 0.4%, also meeting forecasts.

    The Fed uses the PCE price index as its primary yardstick and forecasting tool for inflation. The Fed, which targets 2% inflation, sees core as a better indicator of longer-term trends.

    In addition to the inflation readings, the report also showed consumer spending up 0.5% on the month, while personal income fell 0.1%. Economists had expected spending to rise 0.6% with income up 0.4%.

    Separately, the Commerce Department reported that economic growth was even slower than previously reported for the fourth quarter of 2025.

    Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced, rose just 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down from the prior reading of 0.7% and the initial estimate of 1.4%. The full-year growth rate held at 2.1%.

    The department said the downward revision came primarily to lower investment than previously indicated. A key metric for demand, called real final sales to private domestic purchasers, was cut to a 1.8% growth rate, down 0.6 percentage point from the first estimate.

    “February prices were in line but income was weak and GDP was revised down again. That means stagflation was a little worse than expected even before the Iran war started,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “Parallels to the 1970s might be growing as investors assess this fragile ceasefire.”

    The inflation data covers the period before the war the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran, so it doesn’t reflect the massive surge in energy prices that took effect during the conflict. Oil prices at one point climbed over $100 a barrel while prices at the pump surged by more than $1 a gallon.

    While the data is somewhat dated, it does provide a view of underlying conditions prior to the war. Fed officials generally look through those types price surges, viewing them as temporary and not representative of broader trends.

    Most Fed officials have been cautious publicly about committing to positions regarding interest rates as they watch events unfold. Minutes from the March Fed meeting, released Wednesday, showed policymakers worried about both sides of their dual mandate for stable prices and low unemployment, though generally inclined to lower rates later this year.

    At the same time, markets expect the Fed to stay on hold as the labor market has slowed but has created enough jobs to keep the unemployment rate steady. A Labor Department report Thursday showed a rise in jobless claims to a seasonally adjusted 219,000, up 16,000 from the prior period. The total was higher than the 210,000 estimate but largely in line with recent trends.

    Inflation has been above the Fed’s goal for five years, though officials have continued to express confidence that it will continue on a gradual path lower.

    A more current look at prices will come Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March reading for the consumer price index. The consensus estimate is that headline prices surged 0.9% for the month, pushing the inflation rate to 3.3%, or nearly a full point higher than February. Core CPI is projected at 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually.

    Correction: Consumer spending rose 0.5% in February and income fell 0.1%. An earlier version had incorrect figures.

  • Samsung shares rise nearly 5% on record-breaking earnings forecast buoyed by AI chip demand

    • Samsung forecast record quarterly profit as AI chip demand lifted prices.
    • Revenue and profit beat market expectations in preliminary guidance.
    • The guideline suggests that Samsung is regaining ground in the high-bandwidth memory race.

    Shares of Samsung Electronics rose as much as 4.8% on Tuesday after the South Korean technology giant forecast record quarterly profit amid strong demand for artificial intelligence chips. Shares later pared gains to trade up 0.52%.

    In its preliminary earnings guidance, Samsung projected its operating profit for the January-March quarter to reach 57.2 trillion won ($37.8 billion), up more than eightfold from just 6.69 trillion won a year ago.

    That profit, if it comes to fruition, would represent a quarterly record — nearly three times the previous high — and would exceed estimates of 42.3 trillion won from LSEG SmartEstimate, which is weighted toward forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.

    Meanwhile, the company’s estimated consolidated revenue was projected to surge nearly 70% from a year ago to 133 trillion Korean won.

    Samsung’s upbeat guidance was likely driven by its memory chip business, particularly demand for high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI computing.

    Its Device Solutions division, which includes memory chips, accounted for 39% of Samsung’s revenues and 57% of its operating profits in 2025.

    Demand for high-bandwidth memory chips has become so explosive over the past year that it has triggered shortages across the memory market, driving massive price and volume spikes for memory makers like Samsung.

    The results also reflect that Samsung has been strengthening its position in high-bandwidth memory chips after giving up an early lead to its South Korean rival SK Hynix.

    The company is expected to report full earnings later this month.

  • Apr. 5/26: Oil prices edge higher after Trump reiterates threat to bomb every bridge and power plant in Iran

    • President Donald Trump reiterated his demand that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET.
    • Trump then threatened to decimate every bridge and power plant in Iran within four hours of his Tuesday deadline.
    • The president said Iran wants to make a deal and he believes they’re negotiating in good faith.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/05/crude-oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html

  • B.C. First Nations criticize suspension of DRIPA as ‘absolute betrayal’

    A leaked transcript of a meeting between Indigenous leaders and British Columbia Premier David Eby, about his plan to suspend the province’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, or DRIPA, shows them accusing him of “absolute betrayal” and colonialism.

    Speaker after speaker in the 17,000-word transcript of Thursday’s meeting, obtained by The Canadian Press, criticize Eby’s handling of DRIPA, which he says needs to be suspended for up to three years.

    DRIPA is at the centre of a legal and political storm after being cited by First Nations in two landmark court cases last year, including an appeal ruling that says the act should be “properly interpreted” to incorporate the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples into B.C. laws “with immediate legal effect.”

    The transcript provided by a person in attendance, on the condition that no First Nations leaders are identified, shows one speaker telling Eby he has insisted on “fracturing the relationship between First Nations and B.C.” by saying this week that changing DRIPA was “non-negotiable.”

    Another tells Eby the premise of the meeting is “disingenuous.”

    B.C. proposes suspending parts of landmark Indigenous rights legislation

    The transcript shows Eby starting the meeting by telling attendees the so-called Gitxaala ruling by the B.C. Court of Appeal in December found the UN declaration had been implemented by the province “as a whole.”

    He says the ruling, which had created “huge legal uncertainty,” effectively meant the province would “need to eat the whole elephant” of UNDRIP all at once and across all its laws, which the government lacked the staff and political capital to do.

    Eby says the government proposed to introduce legislation to implement the suspension “the week after next,” and that the pause of up to three years is to give time for the Supreme Court of Canada to rule on the government’s appeal in the Gitxaala case, which centred on mining rules.

    The transcript shows the meeting lasted almost two hours, until about noon Thursday. Ninety minutes later, Eby held a news conference to announce the suspension proposal.

    At the conference, Eby declined to specify which sections of legislation would be suspended.

    But the transcript and a document provided by The Canadian Press’ source in the meeting suggest they consist of four sections of DRIPA, plus a section of the Interpretation Act, which describes how B.C.’s laws must be interpreted.

    The Interpretation Act section facing suspension says “every act and regulation must be construed as being consistent with” DRIPA, while a section of DRIPA to be paused says nothing should be construed as delaying its application to B.C.’s laws.

    The section saying the act’s purpose is to “affirm the application” of DRIPA to B.C.’s laws is also to be paused, as is a section saying the government must take all measures necessary to ensure laws are consistent with it.

    The final section of DRIPA to be suspended relates to how progress on its goals is reported.

    In the transcript, Eby acknowledges the government’s previous plan to amend DRIPA has been “completely opposed” by the First Nations.

    He says the alternative proposal of a pause is to find another solution, which he says “is really, bluntly, unavoidable.”

    “Now, it’s my hope, it’s cabinet’s hope, it’s the government’s hope, that this is a better solution to address the legal risk we’re facing, as well as the concerns that you’ve raised with us,” he says.

    Opinion: Reconciliation is not an issue for governments to address at their convenience

    The response in the transcript is far from enthusiastic.

    “I don’t understand why you insist on fracturing the relationship between First Nations and B.C. by saying these things publicly?” one respondent says, referring to Eby’s remarks on changes to DRIPA being non-negotiable.

    “It really shook my confidence in you as the premier and your ability to work with us on something so important as DRIPA,” they say, adding that Eby is “not there anymore” as a partner.

    One leader tells Eby he is making “rash” decisions, another tells of their “extreme feeling of disappointment in the steps taken,” and another tells the premier his government’s behaviour “smacks of colonialism.”

    One attendee accuses Eby of “Indian giving,” and says that after finally seeing “some light” in the way First Nations are treated by government, Eby’s moves “close the door.”

    Another attendee tells of “an extreme feeling of disappointment in the steps taken.”

    “And this act that you’re doing now … these feelings and this sentiment that you’re putting forward is the same sentiment of colonization, of piece by piece taking our rights, our purpose, away from us,” they say.

    At least one leader expresses doubt about the wisdom of opposing the government, considering the Opposition B.C. Conservatives are “running on repealing DRIPA.”

    They tell other leaders that they “cannot afford to not give a damn about” who is premier, and suggest that fellow chiefs are “overestimating” their power.

    Late in the meeting, one leader tries to inject a light moment, referring back to Eby’s elephant analogy.

    “Eating an elephant, it can be done with help,” they say. “We could fry it, we could boil it … We could barbecue it. That lasagna I ate yesterday said I’m a family of four.”

    Eby told the subsequent news conference that enacting the suspension would represent a confidence vote for his government.

    He said the suspension was “least invasive way that we could think of” to mitigate DRIPA’s possible unintended impacts across the province’s legal system.

  • Canada is a country drowning in a flood of red ink

    A year ago, Ottawa and the provinces were forecasting years-long deficit sprees that would add tens of billions of dollars in debt before the red ink started to turn from a torrent to a trickle. Those were the days.

    Now, those deficit projections are growing, quickly and dangerously. As the graphic below shows, the collective deficit of the federal and provincial governments projected for the fiscal year just started has risen by an eye-popping 88 per cent, or $52.3-billion compared to last year’s outlook.

    The federal government accounts for two-thirds of that new wave of red ink, with its deficit projections rising in the November budget. But, separately, the provinces are now forecasting sharp declines in their fiscal outlooks.

    Chief among them is British Columbia, in the process of moving from one of the least indebted provinces to one of the heaviest borrowers. Last year, the B.C. NDP government said the deficit would gradually decline to $9.9-billion in fiscal 2028 from $10.9-billion in fiscal 2026.

    But in its most recent budget, the B.C. government said the 2028 deficit would be $12.2-billion. A credit downgrade from Moody’s followed, citing “a deterioration in long-term fiscal management.” And as we’ve previously noted, the province’s fiscal forecasts, grim as they are, rest on a series of implausible assumptions about ultralow growth in health and education spending. As bad as B.C.’s numbers look, they will turn out to be worse.

    Nova Scotia, too, was hit with a credit downgrade weeks before tabling its budget on Feb. 23, with S&P Global saying it expected higher deficits than previously forecast. Those worries were justified: Nova Scotia is piling on debt at a much faster pace. The province had forecast that its net debt to GDP would hit 40.9 per cent in fiscal 2029, up from 31.9 per cent in fiscal 2025. But in this year’s budget, that debt ratio is now forecast to hit 44.8 per cent in fiscal 2029.

    The broad trend is the same in the rest of the provinces. Ontario has pushed back the timeframe for returning to a balanced budget. Saskatchewan has dropped into deficit and Alberta has sunk deeper into the red (although surging energy prices might change their fiscal outlooks).

    The reasons aren’t hard to figure out. Health care costs are rising as the population ages. Economic growth is weakening, most immediately because of trade and geopolitical turmoil but more fundamentally due to declining productivity.

    Higher oil prices could drastically reduce Alberta’s budget shortfall

    Grim as the immediate forecasts are, the long term outlook is more dire, as University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe points out in a recent post on The Hub. He concludes that the debt paths for Ottawa and the provinces is unsustainable. Big tax hikes or spending cuts will be needed.

    Prof. Tombe estimates Ottawa would need to double the federal GST to close its fiscal gap (or make spending cuts of equal magnitude). Returning the provinces to fiscal sustainability over the next half-century will be even more costly: an extra 15 points of sales tax, or $170-billion in spending cuts.

    Neither option is politically feasible. What could work is to reignite economic growth. Prof. Tombe notes that labour productivity growth has plummeted over the last decade, increasing by just 0.2 per cent a year, far lower than the average of 1.3 per cent between 1995 and 2015. Policy changes that returned labour productivity to that higher historical average would eliminate much of the fiscal decay in coming decades. A boost to 1.5 per cent annual productivity growth would put Ottawa and the provinces on a sustainable debt path.

    The policy choices needed to reignite productivity growth are well known: reducing taxes on investment, tearing down interprovincial trade barriers and removing regulatory barriers that dampen competition. It’s just that governments are unwilling to do what must be done. And that reveals the most worrying deficit of all in this year’s budgets – a galling shortfall of political courage.

  • US payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, more than expected; unemployment at 4.3%


    Published Fri, Apr 3, 2026
    Key Points
    Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000.
    The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.
    Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021.
    As has been the case, health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs.
    U.S. economy adds 178K jobs in March, unemployment rate dips slightly to 4.3%

    U.S. economy adds 178K jobs in March, unemployment rate dips slightly to 4.3%
    The U.S. labor market bounced back in March, with job creation much stronger than expected though the broader picture of a slow-growth labor market held intact.

    Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. February’s number was revised down by 41,000 while January was revised up by 34,000 to 160,000, putting the three-month average around 68,000.

    The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.

    “The bottom line is March was somewhat encouraging, but it’s been a rocky year for the labor market with almost no hiring since last April,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The March data will keep the Federal Reserve on hold, but no one is declaring victory yet. It’s likely to be a tough spring for job seekers.”

    As has been the case, health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs. A strike at health-care provider Kaiser Permanente in February hit the sector. The BLS said ambulatory health care services rose by 54,000, with 35,000 coming from the strike workers returning.

    Construction saw an increase of 26,000, while transportation and warehousing posted a gain of 21,000.

    On the downside, the federal government saw a loss of 18,000, while financial activities lost 15,000.

    Though the unemployment rate posted a decline, the move largely came from a decline of 396,000 in the labor force. The share of working-age Americans in the labor force fell to 61.9%, its lowest since November 2021.

    The survey of households, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed 64,000 fewer people holding jobs. An alternative unemployment figure that counts discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged up to 8%. Long-term unemployment continued to be elevated, though the average weeks of unemployment fell to 25.3.

    Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. Economists had expected respective readings of 0.3% and 3.7%. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021. Hours worked declined 34.2, down one-tenth from February.

    The U.S. stock market was closed in observance of the Good Friday holiday. Stock market futures were slightly negative following the report. The bond market continued to trade, with Treasury yields higher ahead of an early close.

    The report comes amid a changing labor market, with the economy needing to add fewer jobs to keep the broader employment picture stable. The St. Louis Federal Reserve estimated recently that payroll growth of as little as 15,000 could keep the unemployment rate steady.

    Federal Reserve officials have been weighing the jobs data as they plot their intentions regarding interest rates. Most policymakers have been content to watch the data unfold and take a patient approach, though a few have pushed for interest rate cuts to head off labor market weakness.

    With inflation well above the Fed’s target and energy prices surging as the Iran war continues, markets expect little movement from the central bank this year. Following the jobs report, futures pointed to virtually no probability of a move at the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and a 77.5% probability the Fed will stay on hold through the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch to Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news

  • What Happened March 31 on the TSX?

    Index direction (intraday):

    • The S&P/TSX Composite rose ~+1.2% to ~32,300–32,800 range during today’s session.

    Primary driver (macro):

    • Geopolitical easing (Middle East conflict) improved risk sentiment, triggering a relief rally.

    Sector performance:

    • Broad-based gains (all major sectors positive).
    • Technology and materials led, ~+3% type moves cited.
    • Energy remained strong on elevated oil prices (still >$100/bbl).

    Macro overlay (Canada):

    • GDP (Jan): +0.1% MoM → weak but positive growth.
    • Market pricing ~2 BoC rate hikes by year-end due to inflation risk from oil.

    Context (month/quarter):

    • March: ~–5.6% (worst month since mid-2022) [
    • 1: ~+2% gain overall