https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/27/federal-reserve-rates-kevin-warsh.html
North America’s main indexes edged up on Monday, led by advances in technology shares, while investors assessed Anthropic’s IPO filing at the start of a week packed with corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Anthropic disclosed steep losses and red-hot revenue growth in its filing for a U.S. initial public offering, laying out its ambition to build AI systems capable of reshaping the global economy despite the high costs of developing the technology.
The AI lab is pushing ahead with its listing plans even as a once-busy fall listing calendar has thinned out, with market volatility prompting companies to delay offerings.
“It’s a challenging environment, to say the least exactly when this IPO will take place, but there’s a lot riding on not only the company, but the AI industry,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth In Fairfield.
Semiconductor and chip-related companies, widely viewed as some of the biggest winners of the AI boom, were leading the gains. The broader Philadelphia chips index was up around 1 per cent after a turbulent few weeks.
Anthropic’s filing also arrived at a time when investors are increasingly scrutinizing the payoff from AI spending. About a third of S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings this week, including hyperscalers Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon.com, whose results would be closely watched for signs if the hefty AI investments are translating into growth.
The focus follows a subdued reception to earnings from AI-linked megacaps last week. Meta disappointed investors after raising its annual AI spending forecast again and said it would sell new stock to help pay for it, while Tesla also came under pressure after its results.
Canada’s main stock index rose on Monday, lifted by technology stocks after Anthropic’s IPO filing, while a pullback in oil prices and declining bond yields eased inflationary concerns and bolstered risk appetite.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 0.6 per cent at 36,031.35 points.
TSX’s technology index rose 1.1 per cent after Anthropic disclosed steep losses but red-hot revenue growth in its filing for a US initial public offering
Nine of TSX’s 10 sectors were trading higher, with energy the lone loser after Brent crude retreated 0.9 per cent on hopes of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran
Meta said on Monday it plans to raise up to US$95-billion in equity to fund its AI-related expansion of data centers, cloud computing power and other infrastructure. Its shares were last down 1.8 per cent.
The AI trade has come under pressure this month amid concerns that debt-funded spending may become harder to justify in the face of rising borrowing costs.
Neocloud firm CoreWeave fell 2 per cent and Nebius dipped 4.8 per cent after Elon Musk said in an X post markets have “almost entirely shut off access to money” for companies without substantial revenue independent of AI data centers, and predicted neocloud consolidation.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 236.42 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 52,451.58. The S&P 500 gained 43.20 points, or 0.57 per cent, to 7,666.88, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 119.43 points, or 0.46 per cent, at 26,074.96.
Market breadth was strong, with 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors trading higher. Consumer discretionary and industrials led the gains.
Megacap and growth stocks were mixed. Tesla jumped 5.9 per cent to a more than three-month high after Barclays upgraded its rating on the stock to “overweight” from “equal-weight”.
Crude oil prices eased after hitting a near six-month high last week. On Sunday, Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran as part of an effort to de-escalate regional tensions in coordination with the United States.
Elsewhere, the Fed’s rate decision is due on Wednesday, with a pause widely expected after its September raise. Traders still see a December hike as firmly possible, and at least two 25-basis-point increases by mid-2027, according to LSEG data.
Both the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for September, and third-quarter GDP, expected to show 3.2 per cent growth, are due on Thursday.
Investors are also monitoring the November 3 midterm elections, which will decide control of the U.S. Congress.
Reuters
The biggest issues facing the S&P/TSX Composite Index this week are surging oil prices, the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate decision, weakness in bank and technology stocks, and a heavy corporate earnings calendar.
The TSX finished Friday, October 23, at 35,788.18, down 0.5% on the day and 1.1% for the week. Energy shares provided some support, but financial and consumer-related stocks weighed on the index.
Mixed for TSX
Brent crude climbed above US$115 per barrel on Friday amid fears of renewed conflict involving Iran and threats to Gulf energy infrastructure.
What to watch: Whether crude remains elevated or geopolitical tensions ease.
High impact
The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its next interest-rate decision and Monetary Policy Report on October 28. Its last announced policy rate was 2.25%.
Bank of Canada
Inflation accelerated to 3.1% in September, while Canada lost 68,000 jobs and unemployment reached 6.5%. Those competing signals complicate the policy outlook.
The announcement and the Bank’s explanation may matter as much as the rate itself.
Watch closely
Canadian financial shares helped pull the TSX lower last week, alongside consumer-related stocks.
Why it matters: Canada’s large banks have substantial index weight. Continued weakness in bank shares could offset gains in oil and gas stocks.
Watch Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank and Bank of Montreal for signs of stabilization, credit-quality concerns and changes in bond yields.
High stock-specific risk
Celestica is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the market closes on Monday. The stock had already suffered a sharp sell-off, according to recent market coverage.
Investors will focus on revenue growth, profit margins, demand for data-centre infrastructure and management’s forward guidance.
Potential impact: A positive outlook could support Canadian technology shares; disappointing guidance could prolong pressure on AI-related stocks.
Gold and silver prices weakened amid changing interest-rate expectations, weighing on mining shares.
Higher yields and a stronger US dollar can pressure gold, while geopolitical uncertainty can support demand for safe-haven assets.
Watch Agnico Eagle Mines and Barrick Mining as well as bullion prices and the US dollar.
| Date | Event | TSX implications |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct. 26 | Celestica (CLS) earnings | Technology-sector volatility |
| Wed, Oct. 28 | Bank of Canada decision; Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) earnings after market close | Interest-rate sensitivity; gold-miner outlook |
| Thu, Oct. 29 | Air Canada (AC) and Restaurant Brands International (QSR) earnings are scheduled | Consumer demand, fuel costs and margins |
| Fri, Oct. 30 | Cameco (CCO) and Canadian National Railway (CNR) earnings | Uranium demand, freight volumes and economic activity |
Dates based on published earnings schedules; confirm with each company’s investor-relations website because schedules can change.
Elevated oil prices may support energy producers. Strong corporate results or easing geopolitical tensions could also improve sentiment.
Main downside risks
A further oil-price spike could increase inflation concerns, push bond yields higher and intensify pressure on banks, technology stocks and consumer businesses.
Most important catalyst
Wednesday’s Bank of Canada announcement, combined with corporate earnings, could determine whether the recent pullback stabilizes or extends.
For October 26–30, the main TSX risks are central-bank decisions, U.S. inflation data, Middle East oil disruptions and changes to Canadian tariffs. Information below is as of October 24; market impacts are conditional.
| Date | Key event | Potential TSX impact |
|---|---|---|
| Wed., Oct. 28 | Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report. A Reuters poll showed 19 of 34 economists expecting a 0.25-percentage-point increase to 2.50%—a divided forecast, not a certainty. | A more restrictive outlook could pressure REITs, utilities, ENB, PPL and consumer stocks. Banks face mixed effects: potentially better lending spreads, but weaker borrowing and greater credit risk. bankofcanada.ca |
| Wed., Oct. 28 | U.S. Federal Reserve decision. Markets broadly expect unchanged rates; guidance on subsequent meetings matters. | A tougher inflation message could pressure SHOP and other growth stocks, gold and gold equities. A softer message could support them. Calendar: October 2026 |
| Thurs., Oct. 29 | U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation. | Strong growth supports Canadian exporters and commodity demand. Strong inflation could raise expected interest rates; weak growth combined with sticky inflation would be particularly difficult for equities. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) |
| Fri., Oct. 30 | Canadian August GDP; U.S. Employment Cost Index. | Canadian growth affects banks, retailers and industrials. U.S. wage-cost pressure could reinforce concerns about persistent inflation. Post |
| Throughout week | Iran/Gulf escalation and energy infrastructure risks. Friday’s December WTI settled near US$103.27, Brent US$116.72. | Further disruption could support CNQ, SU and IMO, while increasing costs for transportation and consumers. ENB/PPL have less direct oil-price sensitivity. De-escalation could reverse these effects. wsj.com |
| Fri., Oct. 30 | Changes to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods take effect, including exemptions for selected plywood, packaging and machinery products. | Potential relief for affected exporters, but benefits depend on exact product coverage. This is not a broad removal of Canadian tariffs. apnews.com |
| Oct. 28–29 | Agnico Eagle results Wednesday after close; Teck Thursday before open. | Watch production, operating costs, capital spending and guidance. These can move the stocks independently of gold or copper prices. archive.fast-edgar.com |
Scenarios for the week
| Scenario | Conditions | Likely sector response |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Softer inflation, reassuring central-bank guidance, easing oil disruption risks | Broader participation from technology, consumers and rate-sensitive stocks |
| Base | Decisions broadly match expectations; geopolitical uncertainty persists | Volatile trading, with earnings and guidance driving individual names |
| Bear | Inflation surprises higher, restrictive policy signals and further oil escalation | Pressure on growth stocks, consumers and REITs; energy may outperform, while gold’s response remains mixed |
Key focus: Whether oil-driven inflation pushes interest-rate expectations higher. Falling oil prices and softer inflation would weaken that concern; renewed supply disruptions would strengthen it.
US Treasury yields tumbled on Thursday as equities sold off after concerns about the sustainability of the AI outlook reignited, boosting the safe-haven appeal of government debt.
The Nasdaq slumped more than 2% as Meta shares lost nearly 8% following the company’s quarterly earnings report and announcement of new non-voting shares to help fund the social media company’s AI expansion.
Yields have dropped in recent days, as concerns about a slowdown in AI spending and its impact on economic growth have overshadowed economic data, which showed persistent inflation pressures.
Investors had already priced in inflation and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate increases, but changes in risk assets and financial conditions are now fueling the bid for Treasuries, said Thomas Urano, co-chief investment officer at Sage Advisory in Austin, Texas.
“The battle between energy and inflation concerns and safe-haven demand in Treasuries has been going on, but in the last week, we see who’s winning now. The flight-to-quality trade is winning in the Treasury space,” Urano said.
The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 19.3 basis points to 4.953% and was on track for its biggest daily drop since March 10, 2023. The yield had risen to 5.3645% on October 7, its highest since April 2002.
Despite the recent data pointing to rising price pressures, markets have largely priced out any rate increase by the Fed at its policy meeting next week. The probability of a hike of at least 25 bps has shrunk to 7.2%, according to CME FedWatch, from 27.7% a week ago and 55.4% a month earlier.
The yield on the 30-year bond tumbled 15 bps to 5.287% and was on pace for its biggest daily drop since August 2024.
An auction of $26 billion in 5-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was seen as solid by analysts at BMO Capital Markets, with non-dealer bidding of 94.5% above the 90.8% average for the past six auctions.
The 2-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, stumbled 18.5 bps to 4.638%, on pace for its biggest decline since August 2025.
On the economic front, the Labor Department said weekly initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000, below the 200,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters, indicating the labor market may be picking up steam after a sluggish September.
The break-even rate on 5-year TIPS was last at 2.381% after closing at 2.413% on Wednesday, its highest close since September 15.
The 10-year TIPS break-even rate was last at 2.333%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.
Spotify SPOT-N +10.89%increase forecast fourth-quarter profit above Wall Street estimates on Thursday, as the Swedish music streaming company bets on its AI-powered features to drive user growth in the crucial holiday season.
Shares of the company rose nearly 4 per cent in premarket trading.
Investors have closely watched the company’s profitability as it spends on AI to improve discovery and engagement to attract more users and fend off emerging music-generation rivals such as Suno and Udio.
Spotify expects operating income of €820-million ($920.53-million), compared with analysts’ average estimate of €813.4-million, according to data compiled by LSEG.
The company’s AI-powered features include AI DJ, which curates personalized music mixes with spoken commentary, and prompt-based playlists that let users describe a mood or listening preference to generate tailored selections.
“We’ve built a strong business that keeps compounding, we invest when we see a path for growth, our costs are moderating, and there is more runway ahead,” co-CEO Alex Norstrom said in a statement.
In the third quarter, Spotify’s operating income of €672-million came in line with Visible Alpha-compiled analysts’ average estimate of €671.8-million.
It posted revenue of €4.97-billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, compared with an LSEG-compiled estimate of €4.98-billion. It reported earnings per share of €2.48, compared with estimates of €2.80.
Spotify’s monthly active users forecast of 818 million for the fourth quarter was marginally below Visible Alpha estimates of 819 million, while its outlook for about 10 million increase in premium subscribers to 316 million was above expectations of 314.7 million.
Its monthly active users grew 1 per cent sequentially in the third quarter to reach 788 million.
Earlier this week, Spotify announced a licensing deal with music distributor Believe for its upcoming paid tool for fan-made AI covers and remixes. It has also signed licensing deals with Universal Music Group, Merlin and Kobalt for the tool.
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a strategic partnership with Turkey that will deepen co-operation in defence, energy and joint ventures with the country of 87 million.
Mr. Carney stood with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Bestepe Presidential Complex in Ankara to unveil a three-year action plan the two leaders said will “fundamentally deepen and elevate” relations between Canada and Turkey including “expanding political dialogue,” trade, technological development and common security.
Turkey is the latest stop in the Prime Minister’s drive to reduce reliance on the increasingly protectionist and unpredictable United States under Donald Trump – a challenge Mr. Carney indirectly referenced Thursday when he said Canada these days is seeking “reliable partners.”
Mr. Erdogan said Mr. Carney’s visit turns a page in Canada-Turkish relations, which entered a deep freeze more than five years ago when Ottawa restricted arms exports to Turkey.
“We had some kind of disconnect for a period but today we put an end to it,” the President said.
The Canadian pact provides legitimacy to Mr. Erdogan, who critics say is responsible for Turkey’s democratic backsliding into an autocracy. The U.S. watchdog Freedom House scores Turkey as 32/100 on its civil liberties index, or “not free,” saying the President and his party “have become increasingly authoritarian in recent years, consolidating significant power through constitutional changes and by imprisoning opponents and critics.”
The Prime Minister announced that Export Development Canada, which helps finance and insure Canadian exporters, will sign an agreement with counterpart Turk Eximbank to help companies in both countries undertake joint ventures in foreign markets. The focus will be on energy, mining and critical minerals, infrastructure and transportation, Mr. Carney said.
The two leaders said an air transport agreement being finalized will raise the allowable volume of weekly passenger flights between Canada and Turkey to 21 from 12, with no limit on cargo flights.
Mr. Carney and Mr. Erdogan said negotiations toward a free trade agreement, first announced in July, will begin next month.
The Prime Minister announced International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu will lead a trade mission to Turkey in 2027.
Mr. Carney is the first prime minister to make a bilateral trip to Turkey purely to advance Turkey-Canada relations.
Mr. Carney arrived at the Turkish presidential complex Thursday afternoon where he was greeted with the firing of military cannons. The Prime Minister was welcomed by Mr. Erdogan, then stopped at a microphone to address members of a military band, saying “merhaba asker,” which loosely translates to “hello, soldiers.”
The Prime Minister, accompanied by Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson, spoke of his desire to sell Candu nuclear reactors, critical minerals and liquefied natural gas to Turkey. Mr. Carney said Mr. Hodgson and his Turkish counterpart have agreed to work together to advance collaboration across the energy sector, including liquefied natural gas, civil nuclear energy, renewable energy and critical energy infrastructure.
“Canada is on its way to becoming an energy superpower. Turkey’s economy is growing rapidly and needs a secure and reliable energy supply. We have much to offer: from LNG and civilian nuclear technology to clean energy and the critical minerals that will be at the heart of tomorrow’s economy,” Mr. Carney said.
He lauded a recent defence industry partnership deal with Turkey that will “connect Canadian and Turkish companies to work together, creating good jobs at home, export opportunities abroad and a stronger NATO alliance.”
Turkey’s ambassador to Canada, Can Dizdar, has said Turkey and Canada could deepen co-operation in drone technology, aerospace, naval systems, shipbuilding parts, munitions production and vehicles.
Canada is forming a ‘strategic partnership’ with Turkey aimed in part at securing a free-trade agreement, Prime Minister Mark Carney said.
The Canadian Press
Canada has high hopes for defence co-operation with Turkey, which was ranked the 11th largest arms exporter in the 2021-2025 period by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. It wants to benefit from Turkey’s expertise as Canada undertakes the sharpest hike in military spending since the Korean War.
Two senior officials said this could include tapping Turkey’s military drone prowess, and technology transfers or joint ventures. The Globe is not identifying the officials because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
Turkish officials have repeatedly said more than 80 per cent of the country’s defence industry’s content is now domestic, which reduces dependence on foreign suppliers.
Trade between the two countries has grown steadily in the past 15 years, but with gains mostly in Turkey’s favour. Ankara remains a minor trading partner, however. In 2010, two-way trade was about $1.6-billion with Canada exporting $841.7-million to Turkey and importing $714.2-million, according to Statistics Canada. By 2025 that had grown to $4.3-billion with Canada exporting $1.1 billion to Turkey and importing $3.2-billion.
In his own remarks, Mr. Erdogan said he hopes trade between the two countries will roughly double to $10-billion and said he plans on visiting Canada.
Before meeting with Mr. Erdogan, the Prime Minister on Thursday morning laid a wreath at the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, a massive stone commemoration of the founder of modern Turkey. Ataturk is remembered in part for transforming Turkey into a secular, pro-Western country and laying the foundations for its transition to democracy.
Critics say that Mr. Erdogan, in contrast, introduced religion back into public life, and while he has brought great prosperity to Turkey over his more than two decades in power, is also responsible for the country’s illiberal turn in recent years.
In recent months, Turkey has taken over a pro-opposition media outlet, raided LGBTQ groups and convicted a stand-up comic of insulting the country’s President.
Asked whether the Canadian delegation raised human rights with Turkey, the Prime Minister‘s Office said that in a meeting between Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and her Turkish counterpart that the minister “raised the importance of the respect for human rights.”
This four-day trip is another demonstration of Mr. Carney’s pivot to what he has called “values-based realism” foreign policy – which the Prime Minister has explained means no more “lecturing from afar” if Canada disagrees with another country’s conduct.
“Engagement does not mean endorsement,” is Mr. Carney’s maxim.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html
