Author: Consultant

Summary

• The Bank of Canada rate decision on September 2 is the week’s most important domestic event, particularly for banks, REITs, utilities and the Canadian dollar.
• Canadian and U.S. employment reports arrive September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, creating significant rate, currency and equity-market risk.
• U.S. ISM manufacturing and services data will test whether economic growth remains strong enough to support further Federal Reserve tightening.
• The Strait of Hormuz/Iran situation is the largest geopolitical risk for WTI, Canadian energy shares, transportation and inflation expectations.
• Markets will also position for Canada’s September 8 retaliatory tariffs and the September 6 OPEC+ meeting.

Scheduled Economic Events

Date	Event	Why it matters for the TSX
Sept. 1	U.S. ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS job openings	Tests industrial activity, inflation pressure and labour demand
Sept. 2	U.S. ADP employment	Early—but imperfect—signal for Friday’s payroll report
Sept. 2	Bank of Canada rate decision, 9:45 a.m. ET	Direct impact on CAD, banks, REITs, utilities and indebted consumers
Sept. 3	U.S. ISM Services	Important for inflation because services prices and wages remain persistent
Sept. 4	Canada Labour Force Survey, 8:30 a.m. ET	Changes expectations for the next BoC decision
Sept. 4	U.S. nonfarm payrolls, 8:30 a.m. ET	Key driver of U.S. yields, the dollar, gold and technology valuations

Official schedules: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

1. Bank of Canada Decision—September 2

This is the week’s most important Canadian event.

If the BoC is dovish or cuts

Likely initial effects:

• Canadian dollar weakens.
• Bond yields decline.
• REITs, utilities and telecoms strengthen.
• Banks receive mixed effects: lower credit risk but pressure on lending margins.
• Gold’s Canadian-dollar price receives currency support.

If the BoC holds with a hawkish statement

Likely initial effects:

• Canadian dollar strengthens.
• Bond yields rise.
• REITs and utilities weaken.
• Rate-sensitive consumer shares face pressure.
• Banks could benefit from margins but face higher future credit risk.

Most exposed TSX groups

Sector	Representative names
Banks	RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA
REITs	CAR.UN, BEI.UN, REI.UN, CHP.UN
Utilities	FTS, EMA, CU
Telecom	BCE, T, RCI.B
Rate-sensitive consumer	CTC.A, ATZ, DOO

2. Canada and U.S. Employment—September 4

Both employment reports are released simultaneously, increasing the probability of a sharp CAD/USD move.

Strong U.S. employment

• Raises the probability of a September Fed increase.
• Pushes Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher.
• Negative for gold and high-valuation technology.
• Potentially positive for companies with substantial U.S. revenue.
• Could pressure SHOP, CSU and other long-duration growth shares.

Weak U.S. employment

• Reduces expectations for additional tightening.
• Supports bonds, gold, REITs and technology.
• May raise recession concerns if job weakness is severe.

Canadian employment

A weak Canadian report combined with strong U.S. payrolls would be the most negative combination for the Canadian dollar. A strong Canadian report could reduce expectations of further BoC easing.

3. U.S. ISM Surveys

Manufacturing—September 1

Key components:

• New orders.
• Employment.
• Production.
• Prices paid.

A strong headline accompanied by high prices would be inflationary and potentially negative for bonds, gold and technology valuations.

A strong report with easing prices would be more constructive for industrial and technology shares.

Services—September 3

Services prices are especially important because they are heavily influenced by wages. Persistent services inflation would reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message.

Geopolitical Focus

1. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—highest geopolitical priority

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stated that Iran has “full control” over the Strait and that current restrictions will remain until U.S. military actions end. Reuters

Watch for:

• Vessel seizures or harassment.
• Shipping delays or rerouting.
• Iranian demands for transit payments.
• New U.S. sanctions.
• Insurance and tanker-rate increases.
• U.S. naval escorts or military action.

TSX implications

Development	Likely sector effect
Shipping disruption	Positive for WTI and Canadian energy
De-escalation	Negative for oil’s geopolitical premium
Higher tanker costs	Negative for transportation and refiners
Oil-driven inflation	Negative for REITs, utilities and consumer shares

Most sensitive names: CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, MEG, TOU and ARX. Pipelines such as ENB and TRP would likely be less sensitive than oil producers.

What would falsify the risk?

• Verified normal vessel traffic.
• No seizures or material shipping delays.
• A credible U.S.–Iran agreement.
• Stable tanker-insurance costs.
• WTI failing to rise despite confirmed disruption.

2. Russia–Ukraine energy infrastructure

Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries. Russia extended its diesel-export ban through September 30 after refinery outages and domestic shortages. Reuters

Potential effects:

• Higher global diesel and refining margins.
• Support for North American refiners.
• Greater European fuel-price inflation.
• Higher transportation and agricultural costs.

The effect on crude oil is mixed: refinery outages can reduce Russian demand for crude while export restrictions tighten refined-product supply.

3. U.S.–Canada Tariffs

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect September 8, immediately after the Labour Day weekend. Markets will position during the week ending September 4.

The tariffs cover approximately 700 U.S. products, with rates of 15%, 25% and 50%. Categories include steel, aluminum, clothing, prepared foods, appliances, tools, electronics and furniture. Reuters

Companies and sectors to monitor

• Auto suppliers: MG, LNR, MRE
• Consumer retail: CTC.A
• Food retail: L, WN, MRU, EMP.A
• Industrials and transportation: CNR, CP, TFII
• Banks: indirect exposure through business credit and employment
• Materials: steel, aluminum, lumber and packaging exposure

The key market question is whether exemptions, remission procedures or renewed negotiations emerge before September 8.

4. OPEC+ Positioning

The core OPEC+ producers meet on September 6, just outside the requested week. Traders will begin positioning before Friday’s close.

OPEC+ previously approved an approximately 188,000-barrel-per-day increase for September. The market will focus on whether the group:

• Pauses additional increases.
• Signals further production growth.
• Addresses weak compliance.
• Responds to Iran and Russian supply disruptions.

OPEC meeting notice

Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios

Scenario	Main developments	Likely TSX impact
Bull	Dovish BoC; balanced jobs data; Hormuz remains operational; tariff exemptions emerge	Broader participation led by financials, REITs, utilities and technology
Base	BoC holds; mixed employment; tariff uncertainty continues; oil remains volatile	Range-bound TSX with rapid sector rotation
Bear	Hawkish BoC/Fed signals; weak Canadian jobs; Hormuz disruption; tariff escalation	Consumer, auto and rate-sensitive sectors weaken; energy may outperform

Actionable Takeaways

The priority order for the week is:

1. Bank of Canada decision—September 2
2. U.S. and Canadian jobs—September 4
3. Iran/Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions
4. U.S.–Canada tariff exemptions or escalation
5. U.S. ISM prices and employment components
6. OPEC+ positioning ahead of September 6

The main cross-market signals are CAD/USD, Canadian and U.S. two-year yields, WTI, gold and tariff-sensitive auto suppliers.

Educational analysis only. Scheduled events can change, and geopolitical developments are inherently unpredictable.

Monday August 31

China’s PMI

Japan’s retail sales and industrial production

Germany CPI and retail sales

U.K. markets closed

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Tuesday September 1

Japan’s capital spending and manufacturing PMI

Euro zone CPI, manufacturing PMI and jobless rate

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. construction spending for July.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Manufacturing for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for July.

Also: Canadian and U.S. auto sales for August.

Earnings include: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.; Dell Technologies Inc.; Medtronic PLC; Palo Alto Networks Inc.

---

Wednesday September 2

Japan’s consumer confidence

(8:15 a.m. ET) U.S. ADP National Employment Report for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s rate decision with Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference to follow.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. factory orders for July.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Beige Book is released.

Earnings include: Broadcom Inc.; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.; Major Drilling Group International Inc.; Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc.; Snowflake Inc.

---

Thursday September 3

Japan’s and Euro zone’s services and composite PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international merchandise trade for July.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian labour productivity for Q2.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Aug. 29.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. productivity for Q2. The Street is expecting an annualized rate rise of 1.4 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. goods and services trade deficit for July.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Revelio Public Labor Statistics for August.

(9:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI for August.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global Services and Compsoite PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. ISM Services PMI for August.

Earnings include: BRP Inc.; Ciena Corp.; Enghouse Systems Ltd.; Lululemon Athletica Inc.; VersaBank; Zscaler Inc.

---

Friday September 4

Japan’s household spending

Germany’s factory orders

Euro zone’s retail sales

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian employment for August. The Street is expecting an increase of 17,500 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 6.4 per cent.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August. Consensus is a gain of 58,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining 4.1 per cent and average hourly wages gaining 3.1 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) Canada’s Ivey PMI for August.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for August.

President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. has entered an agreement with Venezuela to take control of 65 billion barrels of the South American country’s oil reserves.

Trump in a social media post announced the agreement he said was negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez.

“The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!” Trump wrote.

The Venezuelan government’s press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The announcement of the deal comes nearly nine months after the U.S. military at Trump’s direction carried out an operation to capture Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and spirit him to the United States to face federal narcoterrorism and drug trafficking charges.

Trump faces mounting pressure to address high gas prices as the war in Iran on Friday reached a six-month milestone with no conclusion in sight. The U.S. has tapped its strategic petroleum reserves, which in early August fell below 300 million barrels, down by more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026.

The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has led to a dramatic slowdown of Gulf oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which about 20 per cent of the world petroleum passed through prior to the conflict.

The average price of gas in the U.S. stood at about US$4.09 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA. The average price was US$3.21 at the same time last year.

Trump in his social media post Friday evening alluded to the Venezuela deal being part of a private partnership. The White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment about the private sector partners involved in the deal, and details on how the arrangement would work were not provided.

Persuading big American oil companies to return the region could face headwinds given and decades of badly damaged infrastructure.

Days after the ouster of Maduro, Trump gathered oil executives at the White House and called on them to rush back into Venezuela. Executives expressed interest in the opportunity but there was also a measure of caution given their past experience in the country.

Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil company, said at that moment he saw the country as “un-investable.”

But Trump has insisted that his administration has brought a measure of stability to Venezuela.

He has argued that Venezuela stole U.S. oil when former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s moved decades ago to nationalize hundreds of foreign-owned assets, including those owned by American oil companies.

Rodriguez, in one of her early moves after taking power, signed a law that opens the nation’s oil sector to privatization and reversed a bedrock tenet of the self-proclaimed socialist movement that had ruled the country for more than two decades.

Rubio said on X that the agreement would usher in US$100-billion in private investment into Venezuela and lead to lower gas prices in the United States.

“This deal is a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people,” Rubio posted.

Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil in the ground. That’s about 17 per cent of the world’s supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Unlike other parts of the world, where geologists have to search for untapped oil, the reserves under Venezuela’s soil are largely mapped and known, experts say. But because of dilapidated infrastructure, the country only produces about 1 per cent of the world’s oil.

Summary

• Gold declined approximately 3.0%–3.3% over the five trading sessions ended August 28, 2026, depending on the spot-price fixing and closing time used.
• U.S. gold futures fell 3.25% to US$4,478.10 per ounce, their largest weekly decline since June.
• The main catalyst was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, which increased expectations of a September interest-rate increase.
• Rising short-term Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar reduced gold’s appeal.
• Profit-taking intensified because gold had reached a three-month high of approximately US$4,681 earlier in the week.

Five-day movement

Measure	Approximate result
Monday spot-gold close	US$4,639/oz
Monday intraday high	US$4,681/oz
Friday late spot price	Approximately US$4,470/oz
September futures settlement	US$4,478.10/oz
Five-day decline	Approximately 3.0%–3.3%

Different gold benchmarks—spot, LBMA fixing and COMEX futures—close at different times, explaining the small variation.

Why gold declined

1. Federal Reserve turned more hawkish

Warsh said the Fed still had “more work to do” unless inflation was clearly moving toward its 2% target. Markets increased the probability of a September rate increase to approximately 62%. Reuters

Higher interest rates hurt gold because gold pays no interest. When Treasury yields rise, holding bonds becomes relatively more attractive.

2. U.S. Treasury yields increased

Short-term U.S. yields rose after Warsh’s speech. This increased the opportunity cost of owning gold and triggered selling in precious metals.

3. U.S. dollar strengthened

The U.S. dollar rose as investors anticipated higher U.S. rates. Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies and commonly pressures demand.

4. Profit-taking after a strong rally

Gold reached its highest level since May on Monday. The rally had been supported by:

• A weaker U.S. dollar.
• Iran-related geopolitical concerns.
• U.S.–Canada trade tensions.
• Treasury bond-buyback proposals.
• Safe-haven buying.

Once the Fed outlook changed, traders locked in gains after three consecutive positive weeks.

5. Safe-haven demand was insufficient

Trade tensions and geopolitical risks continued to support gold fundamentally. However, during this five-day period, the interest-rate and dollar effects outweighed safe-haven demand.

Canadian-dollar impact

The Canadian dollar weakened to approximately C$1.39 per US$1. A weaker Canadian dollar cushioned the decline for Canadian gold holders because:$$\text{Gold in CAD}=\text{Gold in USD}\times\text{USD/CAD}$$

Therefore, gold’s percentage decline in Canadian dollars was likely smaller than its roughly 3.2% U.S.-dollar decline. The exact result depends on the exchange-rate fixing used.

Short-term scenarios

Scenario	Key development	Possible gold response
Bull	Softer inflation or renewed geopolitical escalation	Recovery toward US$4,600–US$4,680
Base	Rate uncertainty persists	Consolidation around US$4,400–US$4,550
Bear	September rate increase becomes highly probable; dollar strengthens further	Decline toward US$4,250–US$4,400

These are analytical ranges, not forecasts or price targets.

What would disprove the negative thesis?

• U.S. inflation weakens materially.
• Treasury yields reverse lower.
• The U.S. dollar declines.
• The Fed reduces the probability of a September increase.
• Gold recovers above approximately US$4,600, followed by a break above US$4,681.

Actionable Takeaways

The gold decline was primarily a monetary-policy correction, not the disappearance of geopolitical or fiscal risks. Near-term direction will depend on U.S. inflation, Treasury yields, the dollar and the probability of a September Fed rate increase.

Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.

Summary

• The S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index (TTTK) gained approximately 2.8%, using XIT as the investable tracking proxy.
• Shopify rose 3.3% and was an important positive contributor because it represented approximately 26% of XIT.
• CGI gained 0.7%, recovering late in the week after temporary weakness.
• Kinaxis declined 0.6% despite a major customer announcement and positive RBC coverage; a strong Thursday–Friday recovery erased most of its earlier loss.
• Technology stocks remained volatile ahead of major U.S. technology earnings and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.

Five-day comparison

Security	Aug. 21 close	Aug. 28 close	C$ change	Five-day move
XIT—TTTK proxy	C$76.18	C$78.34	+C$2.16	+2.84%
Shopify	C$205.63	C$212.42	+C$6.79	+3.30%
Kinaxis	C$179.75	C$178.68	−C$1.07	−0.60%
CGI	C$103.14	C$103.85	+C$0.71	+0.69%

Price data: XIT, SHOP, KXS and GIB.A.

Data gap: Complete daily TTTK index data were not consistently available through the public feed. XIT seeks to replicate the index and is used as the closest investable proxy.

Daily performance

Date	XIT	SHOP	KXS	GIB.A
Aug. 24	+0.47%	+0.97%	+0.24%	+0.34%
Aug. 25	+1.23%	+2.51%	−2.60%	−0.56%
Aug. 26	−0.59%	−2.04%	−2.06%	−1.32%
Aug. 27	+2.67%	+2.48%	+3.17%	+1.65%
Aug. 28	−0.94%	−0.59%	+0.76%	+0.60%

TTTK/XIT: why the index rose 2.8%

XIT’s approximate August 26 weights were:

Company	Approximate weight
Shopify	26.1%
Constellation Software	25.3%
Celestica	23.0%
CGI	9.4%
Kinaxis	2.4%

XIT holdings

Three companies—Shopify, Constellation Software and Celestica—represented roughly three-quarters of the index. Therefore, TTTK’s gain cannot be explained solely by the four companies requested.

Key index drivers were:

• Shopify’s 3.3% advance.
• Continued enthusiasm for software and AI-related companies.
• Thursday’s broad technology rebound.
• Strength in other large constituents, particularly Celestica and Constellation Software.
• Partial profit-taking Friday after Thursday’s 2.7% index-proxy gain.

Shopify: +3.3%

Main drivers

1. Strong Q2 momentum remained supportive

Shopify’s Q2 revenue rose 34% YoY to US$3.58 billion, while gross merchandise volume reached approximately US$115.6 billion. The company also provided an upbeat third-quarter outlook. These results continued to support investor expectations for strong e-commerce and merchant-services growth.

2. Positive analyst sentiment

Positive analyst commentary on Shopify’s sales momentum, AI-commerce capabilities and operating leverage supported the shares early in the week.

3. High volatility after the earnings rally

Shopify had already risen sharply after its August 5 results. Consequently, daily movements were large:

• August 25: +2.51%
• August 26: −2.04%
• August 27: +2.48%

The pattern indicates changing risk appetite and profit-taking rather than a fundamental reversal.

4. Currency effect

SHOP.TO reflects both Shopify’s U.S.-listed share price and the CAD/USD exchange rate. A weaker Canadian dollar can raise the Toronto-listed price even when the U.S. share price is unchanged.

What would weaken the positive interpretation?

• A break below approximately C$203–C$205.
• Slower merchant or payment-volume growth.
• Weaker operating margins.
• Evidence that AI-based commerce platforms are reducing Shopify’s competitive position.

Kinaxis: −0.6%

Main drivers

1. Early-week profit-taking

Kinaxis fell 2.6% Tuesday and 2.1% Wednesday after reaching approximately C$180. The magnitude of the decline was greater than the broader technology sector’s movement, indicating company-specific profit-taking or valuation sensitivity.

2. New customer announcement was not financially quantified

On August 25, Kinaxis announced that Ansaldo Energia selected its platform for global supply-chain planning. The contract supports demand for Kinaxis’s software, but no contract value or revenue contribution was disclosed. Kinaxis announcement list

Without financial details, the announcement was insufficient to prevent the initial decline.

3. RBC support drove a recovery

RBC maintained an Outperform rating and a C$210 target on August 26. The shares subsequently recovered:

• August 27: +3.17%
• August 28: +0.76%

Kinaxis analyst forecast

The rebound reduced the weekly decline from approximately 4.4% at Wednesday’s close to only 0.6% by Friday.

What would weaken the recovery thesis?

• A decline below approximately C$171–C$172.
• Slowing SaaS revenue growth.
• Lower renewal rates or bookings.
• AI competition reducing the value of Kinaxis’s planning platform.

CGI: +0.7%

Main drivers

1. Stable operating model

CGI’s government and large-enterprise contracts provide recurring revenue and relatively stable cash flow. This helped limit its five-day volatility compared with Shopify and Kinaxis.

2. AI debate remains unresolved

Investors continue to hold two opposing views:

• Positive: CGI can benefit from helping customers implement AI and modernize IT systems.
• Negative: Generative AI could reduce demand for labour-intensive consulting and application-management services.

The resulting uncertainty explains why CGI has traded at a lower valuation than higher-growth software companies.

3. Late-week recovery

CGI fell 1.3% Wednesday but recovered 1.7% Thursday and 0.6% Friday. No material company announcement fully explains the reversal; it appears primarily related to broader technology-sector buying and valuation support.

What would weaken the positive interpretation?

• A break below approximately C$100–C$101.
• Slower bookings or backlog conversion.
• Margin pressure from wage costs.
• Evidence that AI is reducing consulting revenue faster than CGI can replace it with new services.

Scenarios

Scenario	TTTK/XIT	SHOP	KXS	GIB.A
Bull	C$80–C$82	C$218–C$225	C$185–C$192	C$107–C$111
Base	C$76–C$80	C$203–C$218	C$171–C$185	C$100–C$107
Bear	Below C$76	Below C$203	Below C$171	Below C$100

These are analytical ranges, not price targets.

Actionable Takeaways

TTTK’s five-day gain was concentrated in its largest holdings. Shopify strengthened the index, Kinaxis finished slightly lower despite a late rebound, and CGI was broadly stable. The major risk is concentration: Shopify, Constellation Software and Celestica collectively determine most of the index’s direction.

XIT explained

XIT is the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index ETF. It trades on the TSX in Canadian dollars and seeks to track the S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index (TTTK).

Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.

Summary

• George Weston (WN.TO) rose from C$97.28 on August 21 to C$98.20 on August 28, a five-session gain of C$0.92, or 0.95%.
• Most of the gain occurred Monday, when investors moved toward defensive grocery, pharmacy and real-estate exposure after U.S.–Canada trade tensions escalated.
• The shares then consolidated as tariff-related food-cost concerns offset the defensive appeal.
• WN outperformed Loblaw, which declined 0.18%, but there was no material company-specific announcement explaining the difference.
• Strong Q2 adjusted earnings, ongoing share repurchases and Choice Properties exposure provided underlying support.

Five-day movement

Date	Close	Daily move	Main interpretation
Aug. 21	C$97.28	Starting price	—
Aug. 24	C$98.83	+1.59%	Defensive buying following trade escalation
Aug. 25	C$98.34	−0.50%	Partial profit-taking and tariff uncertainty
Aug. 26	C$98.54	+0.20%	Stable grocery and real-estate exposure
Aug. 27	C$97.70	−0.85%	Consumer-staples selling and sector rotation
Aug. 28	C$98.20	+0.51%	Recovery as broader markets weakened
Five-session change	+C$0.92	+0.95%

WN historical prices

Key Drivers

1. Defensive business mix

George Weston is principally a holding company with exposure to:

• Loblaw: groceries, pharmacies, healthcare and discount retail.
• Choice Properties REIT: grocery-anchored retail, industrial and residential real estate.

Both businesses are relatively defensive. Consumers continue buying food and prescriptions during economic uncertainty, while Choice Properties receives contractual rental income from a tenant base heavily anchored by Loblaw.

That defensive profile supported WN when trade tensions increased on August 24.

2. Loblaw provided stability

Loblaw finished the five-day period almost unchanged at −0.18%. Its stable performance limited downside for George Weston.

Loblaw’s underlying support came from:

• Essential grocery and pharmacy demand.
• Discount banners such as No Frills and Maxi.
• Private-label products.
• Q2 revenue growth of 4.1%.
• Adjusted EPS growth of 11.9%.

However, Canadian retaliatory tariffs could raise the cost of selected foods, toiletries and household goods. This prevented a stronger rally.

3. Choice Properties diversified the exposure

Choice Properties gives WN a second earnings stream outside grocery retail. Its properties are generally supported by long-term leases and necessity-based tenants.

This diversification likely helped WN outperform Loblaw slightly. However, the exact five-day contribution cannot be isolated from public closing-price data because WN’s daily movement also reflects its holding-company discount and internal share transactions.

4. Strong Q2 adjusted earnings

George Weston’s most recent results showed:

Q2 2026 measure	Result	YoY change
Revenue	C$15.20 billion	+4.1%
Adjusted EBITDA	C$1.94 billion	+6.1%
Adjusted net earnings	C$436 million	+9.8%
Adjusted diluted EPS	C$1.14	+12.9%
Reported net earnings	C$133 million	−48.4%

George Weston Q2 results

The reported earnings decline was mainly caused by non-cash fair-value adjustments related to Choice Properties, not weaker underlying operations. The market appears to have focused more heavily on adjusted earnings.

5. Share repurchases supported per-share value

George Weston repurchased and cancelled 3.1 million shares for C$300 million during Q2. Fewer outstanding shares contributed approximately C$0.03 to adjusted EPS growth.

Buybacks do not guarantee a rising share price, but they can support per-share earnings and reduce available share supply.

Valuation Logic

WN’s value is largely determined by:$$\text{Loblaw stake} + \text{Choice Properties stake} + \text{other assets} – \text{corporate liabilities}$$

The shares may trade below the estimated value of these holdings because investors apply a holding-company discount for structural complexity, taxes and corporate expenses.

WN’s five-day outperformance suggests investors valued its combination of grocery, pharmacy and real-estate exposure during heightened uncertainty.

Risks

• Higher food and merchandise costs from retaliatory tariffs.
• Political or regulatory pressure concerning grocery prices.
• Weaker Choice Properties valuations if bond yields rise.
• A decline in Loblaw’s share price.
• Changes in the holding-company discount.
• Fair-value adjustments creating volatility in reported earnings.

Scenarios

Scenario	Development	Indicative range
Bull	Loblaw margins remain stable and bond yields ease	C$100–C$104
Base	Stable grocery earnings with continued tariff uncertainty	C$96–C$101
Bear	Food-cost pressure combines with higher property yields	C$91–C$96

These are analytical ranges, not price targets.

What would disprove the positive thesis?

• Loblaw experiences weaker comparable sales or declining margins.
• Choice Properties’ occupancy or rental growth deteriorates.
• Higher bond yields reduce REIT valuations.
• WN breaks below approximately C$96–C$97 on heavy volume.
• The holding-company discount widens despite stable underlying assets.

Actionable Takeaways

WN.TO’s five-day gain reflected its defensive combination of grocery, pharmacy and real estate, rather than a new company announcement. The principal items to track are Loblaw’s retail margins, tariff-related food costs, Choice Properties’ operating results and Canadian bond yields.

Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.

Summary

• Loblaw (L.TO) was essentially unchanged over the five sessions ended August 28, 2026, slipping from C$60.53 to C$60.42.
• The five-day change was −C$0.11, or −0.18%, substantially smaller than the declines in Dollarama and Couche-Tard.
• Loblaw gained 1.7% on Monday as investors moved toward defensive grocery and pharmacy businesses after U.S.–Canada trade tensions escalated.
• Most of that gain was reversed Thursday as investors took profits and reduced consumer-staples exposure.
• No material company-specific announcement during the five days explains the movement; it was primarily defensive-sector rotation and tariff-related uncertainty.

Five-day movement

Date	Close	Daily move	Main interpretation
Aug. 21	C$60.53	Starting price	—
Aug. 24	C$61.56	+1.70%	Defensive buying after trade escalation
Aug. 25	C$61.25	−0.50%	Partial profit-taking
Aug. 26	C$61.45	+0.33%	Grocery and pharmacy stability
Aug. 27	C$60.61	−1.37%	Consumer-staples selling and reversal of Monday’s gain
Aug. 28	C$60.42	−0.31%	Broader market weakness
Five-session change	−C$0.11	−0.18%	Essentially flat

Loblaw historical prices

Key Drivers

1. Defensive demand supported Loblaw

The U.S.–Canada trade dispute escalated on August 24. Investors initially moved toward companies selling essential products rather than autos, discretionary merchandise or industrial goods.

Loblaw benefits from relatively stable demand across:

• Groceries.
• Prescription drugs.
• Pharmacy and healthcare services.
• Discount banners such as No Frills and Maxi.
• Private-label products, including No Name and President’s Choice.

This explains why Loblaw rose 1.7% on Monday while tariff-exposed manufacturers declined sharply.

2. Tariffs created both benefits and risks

Canada subsequently announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately 700 U.S. products, including prepared foods, cheese, seafood, toiletries and other consumer goods.

Potential negatives for Loblaw include:

• Higher wholesale food and merchandise costs.
• Supply-chain substitutions.
• Pressure on grocery margins if higher costs cannot be passed through.
• Greater consumer price sensitivity.

Potential positives include:

• Increased demand for Canadian products.
• More customers shifting toward discount stores and private labels.
• Stable grocery volumes despite weaker discretionary spending.

These opposing effects help explain why Loblaw finished the week approximately flat.

3. Thursday’s decline appears market-driven

Loblaw fell 1.37% on August 27, its largest daily decline of the week. Public news searches did not identify a material earnings release, guidance change or corporate announcement that would explain the move.

The most likely explanation is a combination of:

• Profit-taking after Monday’s defensive rally.
• Weakness across several TTCS constituents.
• Investors rotating toward technology and resource shares, which led the TSX on Thursday.
• Ongoing uncertainty over food-cost inflation.

This is an inference from market behaviour, not a confirmed company-specific catalyst.

4. Strong Q2 results provided support

Loblaw’s July 30 results remained constructive:

Q2 2026 measure	Result	YoY change
Revenue	C$15.27 billion	+4.1%
Adjusted EBITDA	Approximately C$1.9 billion	+5.1%
Adjusted diluted EPS	C$0.66	+11.9%
Adjusted EBITDA margin	12.6%	+10 basis points
2026 adjusted EPS outlook	High-single-digit growth	Reaffirmed

Loblaw Q2 results

These results reduced the likelihood of a major sell-off because they showed stable demand and continued earnings growth.

5. PC Financial sale creates a reporting transition

Q2 was Loblaw’s final quarter consolidating PC Financial. Beginning in Q3, Loblaw will instead recognize its proportionate share of EQB’s earnings.

This change could make year-over-year revenue and earnings comparisons less straightforward. However, it was already disclosed before the five-day period and was not a new catalyst last week.

Valuation Logic

Loblaw’s valuation reflects:

• Defensive grocery and pharmacy earnings.
• Strong private-label and discount-store positioning.
• Consistent share repurchases.
• Expected high-single-digit EPS growth.

The limitation is that defensive quality is already partly reflected in the price. Without a new earnings catalyst, the shares may remain range-bound when investors rotate toward faster-growing or commodity-sensitive sectors.

Scenarios

Scenario	Development	Indicative range
Bull	Tariff impact remains limited; discount and private-label demand strengthens	C$62–C$64
Base	Stable sales with modest food-cost pressure	C$59.50–C$62
Bear	Tariffs raise costs while political pressure limits price increases	C$56–C$59

These are analytical ranges, not price targets.

What would disprove the negative thesis?

• Food and pharmacy comparable sales accelerate.
• Loblaw maintains or expands retail margins despite tariffs.
• Private-label and discount-banner market share continues rising.
• Management reaffirms high-single-digit EPS growth after the PC Financial transition.
• The shares recover above approximately C$62–C$63 on strong volume.

Actionable Takeaways

Loblaw’s five-day performance was stable rather than meaningfully negative. Defensive grocery and pharmacy demand offset tariff-cost uncertainty and sector rotation. The next important evidence will be food inflation, comparable sales, retail margins and the first quarterly report following the PC Financial transaction.

Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.

ummary

• Dollarama (DOL.TO) fell from C$186.32 on August 21 to C$175.92 on August 28, a decline of C$10.40, or 5.6%.
• The stock initially rose Monday, then dropped sharply after Canada announced retaliatory tariffs covering many consumer-product categories.
• The largest decline occurred August 26: −3.65% on nearly 1.18 million shares, roughly twice normal volume.
• Dollarama’s imported merchandise creates potential tariff and sourcing-cost exposure, although its exact exposure to the new product list has not been disclosed.
• A relatively high valuation amplified the reaction: the shares traded around 36 times trailing earnings despite emerging margin pressures.

Five-day movement

Date	Closing price	Daily move	Main interpretation
Aug. 21	C$186.32	Starting price	—
Aug. 24	C$187.27	+0.51%	Initial defensive rotation into value retail
Aug. 25	C$183.45	−2.04%	Canada announced retaliatory tariffs
Aug. 26	C$176.76	−3.65%	Investors reassessed merchandise-cost and margin exposure
Aug. 27	C$174.96	−1.02%	Continued selling; intraday low of C$172.96
Aug. 28	C$175.92	+0.55%	Limited bargain buying
Five-session change	−C$10.40	−5.58%

Dollarama historical prices

Why Dollarama fell

1. Canadian retaliatory tariffs

On August 25, Canada announced tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on approximately 700 U.S. products, effective September 8. The list includes prepared foods, clothing, toiletries, plastics, tools, furniture, electronics and other consumer products. Reuters

These categories overlap with goods commonly sold by discount retailers. Potential consequences for Dollarama include:

• Higher merchandise-acquisition costs.
• Additional supplier and sourcing changes.
• Pressure on gross margins.
• Higher shelf prices.
• Difficulty maintaining fixed price points.

Data gap: Dollarama has not publicly quantified how much of its merchandise is covered by the new tariff list. Therefore, the precise earnings impact cannot yet be calculated.

2. High valuation increased sensitivity

At approximately C$176, Dollarama was trading near 36 times trailing earnings. That valuation assumes continued earnings growth and strong margins.

When tariff concerns raised the possibility of higher costs, investors reduced the valuation they were prepared to pay. Dollarama’s defensive business model can support sales during economic weakness, but it does not eliminate valuation or import-cost risk.

3. Existing margin concerns

Dollarama’s latest quarter showed strong sales and earnings growth, but margins declined:

Fiscal Q1 2027 measure	Result	YoY change
Revenue	C$1.85 billion	+21.4%
Canadian comparable sales	—	+5.6%
Net earnings	C$302.3 million	+10.4%
Diluted EPS	C$1.11	+13.3%
EBITDA margin	31.6%	Down from 32.6%
Operating margin	23.4%	Down from 25.6%

The Australian business and related expansion costs contributed to the margin decline. Dollarama Q1 results

Tariff-related merchandise costs could add another margin headwind.

4. Pre-earnings risk reduction

Dollarama announced that its fiscal second-quarter results would be released in September. Some investors may have reduced exposure ahead of the report because expectations remained high while tariff uncertainty increased.

This is a reasonable inference, but there is no public evidence identifying pre-earnings positioning as the direct cause of the decline.

Short-term versus long-term drivers

Short term: Tariff details, technical support around C$173–C$176 and expectations for the September earnings report will likely dominate.

Long term: Dollarama’s value proposition could benefit from financially constrained consumers. However, performance will depend on whether sales growth offsets Australian expansion costs, tariff exposure and pressure on Canadian merchandise margins.

Scenarios

Scenario	Key development	Indicative range
Bull	Minimal tariff exposure; earnings and margins exceed expectations	C$184–C$190
Base	Sales remain strong but margins stay under pressure	C$173–C$183
Bear	Tariffs materially raise costs and earnings guidance weakens	C$165–C$172

These are analytical ranges, not price targets.

What would disprove the negative thesis?

• Dollarama confirms limited exposure to tariffed U.S. products.
• Gross margin and earnings exceed expectations.
• Management maintains its fiscal 2027 outlook.
• The shares recover above C$183–C$187 on strong volume.
• Australian operating losses narrow faster than expected.

Actionable Takeaways

DOL.TO’s decline was mainly a tariff-cost and valuation reset, not evidence of collapsing customer demand. The key question is whether Dollarama can protect merchandise margins while maintaining its low-price value proposition. The next earnings report and management’s tariff-exposure comments should provide the strongest evidence.

Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.

Summary

• Canadian Tire Class A (CTC.A.TO) fell from C$199.58 on August 21 to C$190.27 on August 28, a five-session decline of C$9.31, or 4.7%.
• The largest declines occurred Monday through Wednesday as the U.S.–Canada trade dispute escalated.
• Canadian Tire was not directly targeted like Canadian auto manufacturers, but investors priced in weaker consumer confidence, higher import costs and possible Canadian retaliatory tariffs.
• The shares recovered 1.9% over Thursday and Friday, suggesting bargain buying near C$186–C$190.
• No major company-specific announcement during these five sessions fully explains the decline; the tariff and consumer-risk explanation is largely a market-based inference.

Five-day movement

Date	Closing price	Daily move	Interpretation
Aug. 21	C$199.58	Starting price	—
Aug. 24	C$194.30	−2.65%	Trade-war and consumer-spending concerns
Aug. 25	C$189.99	−2.22%	Continued repricing of retail risk
Aug. 26	C$186.70	−1.73%	Selling continued; five-day closing low
Aug. 27	C$188.51	+0.97%	Initial recovery
Aug. 28	C$190.27	+0.93%	Bargain buying continued
Five-session change	−C$9.31	−4.66%

CTC.A historical prices

Why the shares fell

1. U.S.–Canada trade escalation

U.S.–Canada negotiations collapsed, new U.S. tariffs took effect on selected Canadian products, and Canada announced retaliatory tariffs beginning September 8. The United States also threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles and automotive parts starting January 2027.

The TSX rose 0.26% on August 24, while Canadian Tire fell 2.65%. This underperformance indicates that investors specifically reduced exposure to tariff-sensitive and consumer-dependent companies. Reuters

2. Risk of higher merchandise costs

Canadian Tire sells imported automotive parts, tools, sporting goods, household products and seasonal merchandise. Potential tariffs could raise the landed cost of goods imported from the United States or moving through cross-border supply chains.

Canadian Tire previously disclosed that approximately 15% of its merchandise was sourced from the United States. That figure is historical and may have changed, so current exposure requires confirmation.

Possible effects include:

• Higher inventory costs.
• Lower gross margins if costs are absorbed.
• Higher retail prices if costs are passed to customers.
• Consumers delaying discretionary purchases.
• Additional sourcing and supply-chain expenses.

3. Weaker Canadian consumer confidence

Canadian Tire is highly exposed to Canadian household spending. A prolonged trade conflict could weaken employment, economic growth and consumer confidence—particularly in Ontario and Quebec.

Management recently described consumer sentiment as soft, reflecting:

• Higher food and gasoline costs.
• Ongoing tariff uncertainty.
• Cautious discretionary spending.
• Pressure on lower- and middle-income households.

This is important because many Canadian Tire categories—sporting equipment, outdoor products, home improvement and seasonal goods—can be postponed.

4. Mixed second-quarter sales

Canadian Tire’s August 13 results were profitable but not uniformly strong:

Q2 2026 measure	Result
Consolidated comparable sales	+0.7%
Canadian Tire Retail comparable sales	−0.8%
SportChek comparable sales	+8.0%
Mark’s comparable sales	+4.2%
Normalized diluted EPS	C$3.94, +10% YoY

The earnings improvement provided some fundamental support, but declining Canadian Tire Retail comparable sales left the stock sensitive to any new threat to consumer demand.

Short-term versus long-term impact

Short term: Trade headlines, consumer confidence and technical selling are likely to dominate. The rebound from C$186.70 shows some support, but the stock remains below C$194–C$195.

Long term: The effect depends on Canadian Tire’s ability to change suppliers, pass through costs, protect retail margins and maintain credit quality in its financial-services operation.

Scenarios

Scenario	Development	Indicative range
Bull	Retaliatory tariffs avoid major Canadian Tire merchandise categories; consumer spending holds	C$195–C$200
Base	Trade uncertainty persists, but costs remain manageable	C$186–C$195
Bear	Tariffs materially raise merchandise costs while Canadian spending weakens	C$178–C$186

These are analytical ranges, not price targets.

What would disprove the negative thesis?

• Canadian retaliation excludes most of Canadian Tire’s merchandise.
• Management confirms minimal tariff-related margin exposure.
• Canadian retail sales and consumer confidence improve.
• Canadian Tire Retail comparable sales return to positive growth.
• The shares recover above C$195, followed by a sustained move above C$200.

Actionable Takeaways

The five-day decline was mainly a trade-war and consumer-risk repricing, rather than a reaction to new company-specific results. The C$186–C$190 area attracted buyers, but a stronger recovery likely requires clarity on Canada’s retaliatory tariff list and evidence that Canadian consumer demand remains stable.

Educational analysis only; no guarantee of future performance.