Author: Consultant

  • Apr 4/25: Gold Slips From Record High

    Gold prices were subdued on Monday, after having touched record highs earlier in the session.

    Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to $3,229.56 per ounce in European trade after hitting a new record high of $3,245.42 per ounce earlier.

    U.S. gold futures were little changed at $3,244.79, with a softer dollar helping cap bullion’s downside.

    The dollar remained weak after reports emerged that the Trump administration’s exemptions on electronic devices from tariffs may not last long.

    U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the exemptions aren’t permanent and that smartphones and computers as well as other devices and components would be subject to “semiconductor tariffs” that will likely come in “a month or two,” stirring up more tariff uncertainty.

    https://29817bfe70f371139e44b416ab4e9942.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-41/html/container.html

    Also, Trump said in a Truth Social post that these products are still “subject to the existing 20 percent Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff bucket.

    Goldman Sachs has raised gold price target to $3,700 an ounce by end-2025, citing heightened concerns over the U.S. economy fueled by an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war.

    In economic releases, U.S. reports on retail sales, industrial production, import and export prices and housing starts will be in the spotlight this week.

    Several Fed officials are set to speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

  • Canadian wholesale trade up 0.3% to $85.7-billion in February

    Statistics Canada says wholesale trade, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.3 per cent to $85.7-billion in February.

    The overall increase in sales came as just two of the seven subsectors posted gains.

    Statistics Canada says sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector gained 7.1 per cent for the month to $19-billion, while the food, beverage and tobacco subsector rose 0.5 per cent to $15.5-billion.

    The motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector posted the largest decrease as it fell 3.1 per cent to $14.3-billion.

    In volume terms, wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, increased 0.2 per cent in February.

    Statistics Canada has started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade, but is excluding the data from its monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

  • Apr 14/25: Oil Prices Inch Higher In Cautious Trade

    Oil prices traded higher on Monday, with a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions offering some support. There was some cheer as Chinese data showed a sharp rebound in crude imports in March.

    China’s crude oil imports in March were up nearly 5 percent from a year earlier, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.

    Benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.6 percent to $65.15 a barrel in European trade while WTI crude futures were up 0.7 percent at $61.93.

    The dollar remained weak as investors grappled with the latest tariff headlines.

    Traders looked past a reprieve on the imposition of certain electronic tariffs after U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed his exemption for the technology sector.

    https://03e3138b137d84063c8e25358459b3d7.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-41/html/container.html

    On the geopolitical front, at least 34 people were killed and another 117, including 11 children, were injured by a Russian missile attack on the northern Ukrainian city of Sumy, Ukraine’s state emergency service said.

    This was the deadliest attack on Ukraine this year and Trump called it a “horrible thing” and a “mistake”.

    Elsewhere, the death toll from Israel’s attacks on Gaza on Sunday rose to 37 as condemnation grows over attack on al-Ahli Hospital.

    Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is set to visit Moscow this week to discuss recent nuclear negotiations with the United States held in Oman.

  • Trump says specific tariff will be placed on semiconductor industry, rate to be announced within week

    While speaking with reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night, Trump said the goal behind the specific tariff is to “uncomplicate” trade in the semiconductor sector.

    “We wanted to uncomplicate it from a lot of other companies, because we want to make our chips and semiconductors and other things in our country,” Trump said while traveling back to Washington, D.C. from West Palm Beach.

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-says-specific-tariff-placed-semiconductor-industry-rate-announced-within-week

  • Trump team holds ‘constructive’ face-to-face nuclear talks with Iran, will meet again next weekend

    The talks took place on the outskirts of Oman’s capital, Muscat, and lasted just over two hours. Omani Foreign Minister Said Badr hosted the meeting. 

    Iranian state TV later confirmed the sides exchanged several rounds of messages, and there was a short, direct conversation between the American and Iranian diplomats.

    Military pressure appears to be a big reason Iran came to the table. Rebecca Grant, a senior fellow at the Lexington Institute, told the “Fox Report” Saturday the U.S. has sent a clear signal by moving powerful military assets into the region.

    TRUMP DEMANDS DO-OR-DIE NUCLEAR TALKS WITH IRAN. WHO HAS THE LEVERAGE? 

    “All the options are not only on the table. They’re all deployed to the Middle East,” Grant said. “Somewhere between four and six B-2 stealth bombers [are] forward in Diego Garcia, [along with] two aircraft carriers. That has really gotten Iran’s attention.”

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-team-holds-constructive-nuclear-talks-iran-meet-again-next-weekend

  • Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs

    • Smartphones and computers will be exempted from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
    • Trump earlier this month imposed 145% tariffs on products from China, a move that was poised to take a toll on tech companies like Apple, which makes most of its other products in China.
    • The guidance also includes exclusions for other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, memory cards and solid-state drives used for storing data.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

  • Calendar: April 14 – April 18

    Monday April 14

    China trade surplus, aggregate yuan financing and new yuan loans

    Japan industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for February. Estimate is a month-over-month rise of 0.4 per cent (versus a gain of 1.2 per cent in January).

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s new motor vehicle sales for February. Estimate is a year-over-year drop of 8.0 per cent.

    Earnings include: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; M&T Bank Corp.; PrairieSky Royalty Ltd.; Well Health Technologies Corp.

    Tuesday April 15

    Euro zone industrial production

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for March. Estimate is an annualized increase of 0.4 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s CPI for March. The Street projects a month-over-month gain of 0.7 per cent an a year-over-year rise of 2.7 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canaa’s manufacturing sales and new orders for February. Estimates are month-over-month declines of 0.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. import prices of March. Consensus is a flat reading from February and up 1.4 per cent year-over-year.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s existing home sales and average prices for March. Estimates are year-over-year drops of 10.0 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively.

    (9 a.m. ET) Canada’s MLS Home Price Index for March. Estimate is a decline of 1.5 per cent year-over-year.

    Earnings include: Bank of America Corp.; Citigroup Inc.; Groupe Dynamite Inc.; Johnson & Johnson; PNC Financial Services Group Inc.; Rio Tinto ADR; United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    Wednesday April 16

    China GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment

    Japan core machine orders

    Euro zone CPI

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. retail sales for March. Consensus is a gain of 1.4 per cent from February (or 0.4 per cent excluding automobiles)

    (9:15 a.m. ET) U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for March.

    (9:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada policy announcement and Monetary Policy Report with press conference to follow.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for April.

    (10 a.m. ET) U.S. business inventories for February.

    (1:30 p.m. TE) U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks to the Economic Club of Chicago.

    (8 p.m. ET) Canada’s federal leaders debate (French)

    Earnings include: Abbott Laboratories; Alcoa Corp.; BHP Group Ltd. ADR; CSX Corp.; Kinder Morgan Inc.; Metro Inc.; Progressive Corp.; Prologis Inc.; U.S. Bancorp.

    Thursday April 17

    Japan trade surplus

    ECB monetary policy meeting

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s international securities transactions for February.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s household and mortgage credit for February.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of April 12. Estimate is 226,000, up 3,000 from the previous week.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. housing starts for March. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 5.4 per cent.

    (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. building permits for March. Consensus is an annualize rate drop of 0.6 per cent.

    (7 p.m. ET) Canada’s federal leaders debate (English)

    Earnings include: Blackstone Inc.; Charles Schwab Corp.; DR Horton Inc.; Hermes International SA; L’Oreal ADR; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. Ltd.; Truist Financial Corp.; UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    Friday April 18

    Japan CPI

    Euro zone markets closed

    Canadian markets closed

    U.S. stock markets closed with limited bond market activity

  • China reaches out to other nations as Trump layers on tariffs

    China is reaching out to other nations as the U.S. layers on more tariffs in what appears to be an attempt to form a united front to compel Washington to retreat. Days into the effort, it’s meeting only partial success with many countries unwilling to ally with the main target of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

    Facing the cratering of global markets, Trump on Wednesday backed off his tariffs on most nations for 90 days, saying countries were lining up to negotiate more favorable conditions.

    China has refused to seek talks, saying it would “fight to the end” in a tariff war, prompting Trump to further jack up the tax rate on Chinese imports to 125 per cent. China has retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods of 84 per cent, which took effect Thursday.

    Trump’s move was seemingly an attempt to narrow what had been an unprecedented trade war between the U.S. and most of the world to a showdown between the U.S. and China.

    “A just cause receives support from many,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a daily briefing on Thursday. “The U.S. cannot win the support of the people and will end in failure.”

    China has thus far focused on Europe, with a phone call between Premier Li Qiang and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “sending a positive message to the outside world.”

    “China is willing to work with the EU to jointly implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of China and the EU, strengthen communication and exchanges, and deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

    Analysis: American hypocrisy: Trump attacks countries for ‘cheating’ on trade – but the U.S. does it too

    That was followed by a video conference between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security efovi on Tuesday to discuss the U.S. “reciprocal tariffs.”

    Wang said the tariffs “seriously infringe upon the legitimate interests of all countries, seriously violate WTO rules, seriously damage the rules-based multilateral trading system, and seriously impact the stability of the global economic order,” Xinhua said.

    “It is a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying,” Wang said quoted as saying.

    “China is willing to resolve differences through consultation and negotiation, but if the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” Wang said.

    Wang has also spoken with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while Li, the premier, has met with business leaders. China has “already made a full evaluation and is prepared to deal with all kinds of uncertainties, and will introduce incremental policies according to the needs of the situation,” Xinhua quoted Li as saying.

    In Hong Kong, the spokesperson for the local office of China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated Beijing’s unwillingness to negotiate with the U.S. under current conditions.

    “We must solemnly tell the U.S.: a tariff-wielding barbarian who attempts to force countries to call and beg for mercy can never expect that call from China,” Huang Jingrui wrote in an op-ed appearing in the South China Morning Post.

    If the U.S. is truly sincere about starting a dialogue with China, it should “immediately rectify its wrong practices and adopt the right attitude of equality, respect and mutual benefit,” Huang wrote.

    Despite their unhappiness with Washington, not all countries are interested in linking up with China, especially those with a history of disputes with Beijing.

    “We speak for ourselves, and Australia’s position is that free and fair trade is a good thing,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters. “We engage with all countries, but we stand up for Australia’s national interest and we stand on our own two feet.”

    China imposed a series of official and unofficial trade barriers against Australia in 2020 after the government angered Beijing by calling for an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic.

    India has also reportedly turned down a Chinese call for cooperation, and Russia, typically seen as China’s closest geopolitical partner, has been left out of the Trump tariffs altogether. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Wednesday that his government is preparing for talks on tariffs with the U.S.

    The U.S. imposed a 32 per cent tariff on imports from Taiwan, a close trading and security partner. Taiwan produces most of the high-performing computer chips craved by the U.S. and others and has long enjoyed a trade surplus with Washington.

    Yet, Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Cambodia find themselves in a particular bind. They benefited when factories moved to their countries from China due to rising costs. They are being hit by punishing tariffs but have few buyers outside the U.S. and are already operating on razor-thin margins.

    Trump had previously denied contemplating a pause, but the drama over his tariffs will continue as the administration prepares to engage in country-by-country negotiations. Meanwhile, tariffs will be 10 per cent for the countries where the larger ones were paused.

    It’s not clear what further steps China will take, but the Foreign Ministry’s Lin said China “will not sit idly by and let the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people be deprived of, nor will we allow the international trade rules and multilateral trading system to be undermined.” Non-tariff options include bans on American movies, American law firms and other trade in services.

    World markets soared on Thursday, with Japan’s benchmark jumping more than 9 per cent, as investors welcomed Trump’s decision Germany’s DAX initially gained more than 8 per cent. It was up 7.5 per cent at 21,141.53 a bit later, while the CAC 40 in Paris gained 7.2 per cent to 7,360.23. Britain’s FTSE 100 surged 5.4 per cent to 8,090.02.

    However, U.S. futures edged lower and oil prices also declined. Chinese shares saw more moderate gains, given yet another jump in the tariffs each side is imposing on each others’ exports.

    The future for the S&P 500 was down 0.4 per while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.2 per cent lower.

  • U.S. crude oil tumbles more than 6%, trades below $56 as China imposes retaliatory tariffs

    April 9/25 at 8.00 AM EST

    U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 6% on Wednesday, as China slapped retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. after President Donald Trump’s sweeping levies took effect.

    The U.S. benchmark dropped $4.01, or 6.7%, to $55.57 per barrel by 7:53 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent tumbled $4.04, or 6.4%, to $58.78.

    The oil sell-off took a leg lower after Beijing announced tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods in response to Trump’s levies. China’s tariffs take effect on April 10.

    Traders are worried the world is descending into a full-blown trade war that will trigger a recession, hitting crude oil demand. OPEC+, meanwhile, has agreed to accelerate output in May, which will bring more oil to a market that was already facing a surplus.

    The collision of recession fears and growing oil supply is a “toxic cocktail,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC on Tuesday.

    The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold talks in Oman on Saturday to discuss the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Successful negotiations could result in more Iranian oil entering the global market.