Author: Consultant

Monday March 24

Japan, U.K. and Euro zone PMI

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s manufacturing sales for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February.

(9:45 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P Global PMIs for March.

Earnings include: BYD ADR; Diversified Royalty Corp.; Logan Energy Corp.

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Tuesday March 25

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 city) for January. The Street expects a rise of 0.3 per cent from December and up 4.9 per cent year-over-year.

(9 a.m. ET) U.S. FHFA House Price Index for January. Consensus is a month-over-month increase 0.3 per cent andd year-over-year gain of 5.1 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. new home sales for February. Consensus is an annualized rate rise of 3.2 per cent.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March.

Also: Quebec budget

Earnings include: Canadian Solar Inc.; McCormick & Co. Inc.

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Wednesday March 26

China current account surplus

U.K. CPI and Spring Budget

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian wholesale trade for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. durable orders for February. The Street expects a decline of 1.1 per cent for January with core orders rising 0.2 per cent.

(1:30 p.m. ET) Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations for the March 12 decision.

Earnings include: BRP Inc.; Cintas Corp.; Dollar Tree Inc.; Mag Silver Corp.; Seabridge Gold Inc.

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Thursday March 27

China industrial profits

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s payroll survey: job vacancy rate for January.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of March 22. Estimate is 227,000, up 4,000 from the previous week.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. real GDP and GDP deflator for Q4. The Street expects annualized rate rises of 2.4 per cent for both.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S goods trade deficit for February.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. wholesale and retail inventories for February.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. pending home sales for February.

Earnings include: Lululemon Athletica Inc.; Telesat Corp.; Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.

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Friday March 28

ECB three-year CPI expectations

Euro zone economic and consuumer confidence

Germany unemployment

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canada’s monthly real GDP for January. The Street expects a gain of 0.3 per cent from December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. personal spending and income for February. Consensus is month-over-month gaims of 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. core PCE price index for February. The Street is projecting a rise of 0.3 per cent from January and up 2.7 per cent year-over-year.

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March.

Earnings include: Aya Gold & Silver Inc.; Lassonde Industries Inc.

Chart Panel for Tue, Mar 25th, 2025

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans for next week that could potentially boost inflation.

Spot gold was up 0.4% to $3,024.56 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.5% to $3,029.30.

“Investors are concerned about the state of the world, especially with U.S. policies being what they are, and so they’re buying gold as an alternative asset because they’re concerned that the U.S. government may throw the world into a global recession,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, has risen more than 15% this year and reached an all-time peak of $3,057.21 on March 20.

Trump has said not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. The Financial Times said the president is considering a two-step tariff regime next week.

Trump’s tariff policies are widely expected to weigh on economic growth, trigger further trade tensions, and drive up inflation.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he expected just one quarter-percentage-point reduction in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by the year-end, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision last week to keep rates on hold while hinting at half-percentage-point cut later this year.

“The odds of rate cuts are seem to be backing off a little bit and I think overall it’s still really bullish for (an)inflationary metal like gold … I would say next level up is probably around $3,125,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian and U.S. delegations are scheduled to meet on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia following Russia-U.S. talks there a day earlier on a limited Black Sea ceasefire proposal that Washington hopes will open the way for broader peace negotiations.

Spot silver gained 1.9% to $33.61 an ounce, platinum added 1.1% to $983.56 and palladium added 1.2% to $959.75.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday for a fifth day on concerns global supply will tighten after the U.S. announced tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan crude.

Brent crude futures were up 27 cents to $73.27 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 26 cents to $69.37.

Both benchmarks gained more than 1% in the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela. Oil is Venezuela’s main export and China, which is already the subject of U.S. tariffs, is its largest buyer.

This move could mean a fairly sizeable tightening in the global oil balance, ING analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday.

They added oil, along with broader risk assets, also benefited from suggestions the Trump administration may take a more targeted approach with reciprocal tariffs the U.S. is set to enact on April 2.

“Investors fear Trump’s various tariffs could slow the economy and curb oil demand, but the prospect of tighter U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil constraining supply, along with his swift policy shifts, make it difficult to take large positions,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

“We expect WTI to stay around $70 for the rest of the year, with potential seasonal gains as the U.S. and other countries enter the driving season,” he added.

Last week, the U.S. issued new sanctions intended to hit Iranian oil exports.

The Trump administration also on Monday extended a deadline to May 27 for U.S. producer Chevron to wind down operations in Venezuela.

The withdrawal of Chevron’s license to operate could reduce production in the country by about 200,000 barrels per day, according to ANZ analysts.

Trump also said automobile tariffs are coming soon even as he indicated that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks, a move Wall Street took as a sign of flexibility on a matter that has roiled markets for weeks.

Meanwhile, OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, will likely stick to its plan to raise oil output for a second consecutive month in May, four sources told Reuters, amid steady oil prices and plans to force some members to reduce pumping to compensate for past overproduction.

• The Conference Board’s measure for future expectations tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years.
• The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/consumer-confidence-in-where-the-economy-is-headed-hits-12-year-low.html

​The impending U.S. tariffs, scheduled to take effect on April 2, 2025, are poised to have significant repercussions on the Canadian economy. Key anticipated impacts include:​

Economic Growth and Potential Recession:

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised Canada’s economic growth forecasts downward, projecting a growth rate of 0.7% for both 2025 and 2026, a decrease from previous estimates. The OECD warns that sustained tariffs could push Canada into a recession within six months, with potential job losses reaching up to 100,000 positions in provinces like Quebec. ​MarketWatchWikipedia

Inflationary Pressures:

The Bank of Canada is actively monitoring the situation to prevent tariff-induced price increases from becoming widespread. In February 2025, Canada’s inflation rate rose to 2.6%, surpassing expectations. The central bank acknowledges that tariffs could exacerbate inflationary trends, complicating efforts to maintain its 2% inflation target. ​WSJ

Currency Volatility:

The Canadian dollar has experienced fluctuations amid tariff uncertainties. For instance, on March 21, 2025, the loonie saw a slight decline against the U.S. dollar, influenced by falling retail sales and ongoing tariff concerns. Despite these challenges, the currency managed a modest gain for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly increase. ​Reuters+1Reuters+1

Government Response and Trade Diversification:

In reaction to the tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the need to bolster internal trade and reduce reliance on the U.S. market. The government aims to achieve free internal trade by July 1, 2025, to mitigate the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs. Additionally, relief packages are being prepared for those affected by the trade conflict, and efforts are underway to expedite resource projects, including a proposed oil pipeline from Alberta to Eastern Canada. ​Reuters+1Financial Times+1AP News

Sector-Specific Impacts:

• Agriculture: The tariffs are expected to increase input costs for Canadian farmers, particularly for fertilizers like potash, which are subject to new U.S. duties. This could lead to reduced profitability and shifts in crop selection. ​Midland Daily News
• Manufacturing: Industries such as steel and aluminum are directly targeted by the tariffs, potentially leading to increased production costs and reduced competitiveness in international markets. ​New York Post
• Consumer Goods: The tariffs may result in higher prices for various consumer products, including groceries and household items, as increased import costs are passed on to consumers. ​Business Insider

In summary, the April 2 U.S. tariffs are expected to pose substantial challenges to the Canadian economy, affecting growth, inflation, currency stability, and specific sectors. The Canadian government’s proactive measures aim to mitigate these impacts through internal trade enhancements and strategic economic policies.​Reuters

In mid-March 2025, the share price of Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) experienced a decline, primarily influenced by a combination of external economic factors and internal corporate developments:

1. Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Trade Tensions: The U.S. announcement of tariffs on Canadian imports, including those related to financial services, created significant market volatility. This geopolitical tension led to a cautious investment climate, particularly affecting Canadian banks with substantial cross-border operations.
2. Economic Uncertainty and Interest Rate Changes: The broader economic context, including uncertainties around global growth and potential changes in interest rates by central banks, also played a role. These factors can affect banks due to their impact on borrowing costs, loan demand, and overall economic activity.
3. Loan Default Concerns: There was also concern about a potential increase in loan defaults. With many fixed-rate mortgages in Canada coming due in 2025, there was apprehension about borrowers’ ability to meet their obligations under possibly higher rates, which could affect the bank’s loan portfolio.
4. Mixed Analyst Sentiments: Despite some analysts maintaining positive long-term views on BMO, citing its strong market position and dividend growth, the immediate response to current events was more conservative. Some analysts might have adjusted their expectations or ratings based on these near-term challenges.
5. Dividend and Corporate Actions: BMO’s financial strategies, including dividend declarations and other corporate actions, could also influence investor sentiment. Any significant changes or announcements in these areas could lead to short-term price movements.

These factors collectively contributed to the observed volatility in BMO’s share price during this period. For the most accurate and specific details, investors and stakeholders typically look to the latest earnings reports, analyst briefings, and news releases from the bank.

4

George Weston Limited (WN.TO) experienced a decline in its share price in mid-March 2025, influenced by several factors:​

1. Insider Selling Activity

During this period, several insider transactions were reported:​

• March 5, 2025: Director Willard Galen Garfield Weston sold 57,463 shares at an average price of C$231.03, totaling approximately C$13.28 million.​RTTNews+2MarketBeat+2MarketBeat+2
• March 10, 2025: Director Willard Galen Garfield Weston sold an additional 7,248 shares at an average price of C$236.64, amounting to about C$1.72 million.​

Such insider selling can raise concerns among investors about the company’s future prospects, potentially contributing to stock price volatility. ​MarketBeat

2. Technical Sell Signals

Technical analysis indicated potential challenges for WN.TO:​

• A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on March 7, 2025, with the stock falling by approximately 2.78% subsequently.​StockInvest
• The short-term moving average positioned above the long-term average suggested a general buy signal; however, the recent sell signal and price decline introduced caution. ​StockInvest

3. Recent Earnings Report

On February 26, 2025, George Weston reported its fourth-quarter and fiscal year-end results for 2024, ending December 31. While detailed financial outcomes were not specified in the available sources, earnings reports can influence stock performance based on market expectations. ​RTTNews+2George Weston+2MarketBeat+2

4. Stock Buyback Program

The company announced an Automatic Share Purchase Plan (ASPP) on March 21, 2025, allowing the repurchase of up to 6,646,057 common shares between May 27, 2024, and May 26, 2025. While buybacks can signal confidence, they might also prompt questions about capital allocation, especially if conducted during periods of stock price volatility. ​RTTNews+1Yahoo Finance+1

In summary, the decline in George Weston Limited’s share price in mid-March 2025 was influenced by insider selling activities, technical sell signals, recent earnings announcements, and the initiation of a share buyback program. These factors, individually and collectively, may have contributed to investor uncertainty and stock price fluctuations during this period.

CALGARY, AB, March 17, 2025 /CNW/ – Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX: CP) (NYSE: CP) (CPKC) today said that United Steelworkers (USW), representing approximately 600 clerical and intermodal employees in Canada, has ratified a new four-year collective agreement.

“We are pleased to have received strong support for another collective agreement, the third in Canada reached this year at the bargaining table providing long-term labor stability, increased wages and improved benefits for thousands of CPKC employees across the country,” said CPKC President and Chief Executive Officer Keith Creel. “With this agreement and ratification, made possible through collaboration with the United Steelworkers, our railroaders remain focused on continuing to safely and efficiently serve our customers, moving Canada’s supply chain and supporting the North American economy.” 

This is the third new collective agreement ratified this year by CPKC employees in Canada. Teamsters Canada Rail Conference Maintenance of Way Employees Division representing approximately 2,300 engineering services employees in Canada and Unifor representing approximately 1,200 mechanical employees both ratified new four-year collective agreements in February.

About CPKC
With its global headquarters in Calgary, Alta., Canada, CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States and México, with unrivaled access to major ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada to the Gulf of México to Lázaro Cárdenas, México. Stretching approximately 20,000 route miles and employing 20,000 railroaders, CPKC provides North American customers unparalleled rail service and network reach to key markets across the continent. CPKC is growing with its customers, offering a suite of freight transportation services, logistics solutions and supply chain expertise. Visit cpkcr.com to learn more about the rail advantages of CPKC. CP-IR